Crypto To Explode! - Final Warning! 🚨

Investing Made Simple - Nathan Sloan
6 Mar 202412:54

Summary

TLDRThe script discusses the recent record-breaking all-time high of Bitcoin before the halving event, a first in previous cycles. It delves into the Stock-to-Flow model by Plan B, cautioning about the existence of multiple versions and emphasizing the importance of referencing the original model. The script explores the model's predictions, suggesting potential exponential gains up to $575,000 per Bitcoin by Q3 2025. However, it acknowledges the ambitious nature of this target and encourages viewers to formulate their own investment plans. Finally, it highlights a key indicator from Plan B, signaling the commencement of the crypto bull market, foreshadowing potential face-melting rallies in the coming months.

Takeaways

  • 🌐 Bitcoin recently hit a new all-time high before the halving, which is unprecedented in previous cycles.
  • 📈 The Stock-to-Flow model is a popular tool for navigating the volatility of the crypto market, but there are multiple versions with varying price predictions, so caution is advised.
  • 🔄 The crypto market has exhibited cyclical behavior with 2-3 year bull markets followed by 1-year bear markets, revolving around the halving events.
  • 🎯 According to Stock-to-Flow, Bitcoin's price could potentially reach $575,000 by Q3 2025, an 8x increase from current levels, though this target is considered extremely ambitious and high-risk.
  • 💰 The video suggests considering lower-risk targets, such as a 50% or 100% increase from current prices, which would be around $100,000 or $140,000 respectively.
  • 💎 Plan B's Bitcoin Market Cycle chart indicates that the accumulation phase has ended, and the bull market has just begun, signaling potential for face-melting rallies in the next 6-12 months.
  • ⚠️ A cautionary note is provided about the existence of multiple Stock-to-Flow versions, emphasizing the importance of verifying the version being referenced.
  • 📝 The video encourages viewers to formulate a personal plan for navigating the crypto market, whether it's hodling, dollar-cost averaging, trying to time the market, or trading the ups and downs.
  • 🤔 A decision needs to be made on whether to aim for exiting the market during the next crypto winter or staying invested throughout the cycles.
  • 📺 The video promises to cover the creator's personal plan for the crypto market in the next episode, encouraging viewers to subscribe to not miss it.

Q & A

  • What is the significance of Bitcoin setting a new all-time high before the halving?

    -According to the transcript, Bitcoin setting a new all-time high before the halving is an event that has never occurred before in previous market cycles. This is seen as an interesting development and potentially indicative of the strength of the current bull market.

  • What is the stock-to-flow model, and why is it important in analyzing Bitcoin's price movements?

    -The stock-to-flow model is a chart that helps navigate the volatility of the crypto market by showing the cyclicality around the Bitcoin halving events. It is considered a useful tool for understanding Bitcoin's price cycles and potential future price movements.

  • What is the caution mentioned regarding the stock-to-flow model?

    -The caution is that there are multiple versions of the stock-to-flow model circulating, each with slightly different price predictions. It is important to ensure that you are looking at the right version (the original version) to avoid being misled.

  • According to the stock-to-flow model, what is the potential price target for Bitcoin by Q3 2025?

    -According to the stock-to-flow model mentioned in the transcript, the predicted price target for Bitcoin by Q3 2025 is a staggering $575,000, which represents a 750% gain from the current price at the time of the video.

  • How does the presenter view the $575,000 price target for Bitcoin?

    -The presenter considers the $575,000 price target for Bitcoin to be an incredibly ambitious Target and extremely high risk. They suggest considering more conservative targets, such as $100,000 (low risk), $140,000 (medium risk), or $210,000 (higher risk).

  • What does the Bitcoin Market Cycle indicator by Plan B suggest?

    -The Bitcoin Market Cycle indicator by Plan B suggests that the accumulation stage has finished, and the big red dot signals that the bull market has just begun. This is when the face melting rallies of the crypto market are expected to occur, potentially lasting 6 to 12 months of massive gains.

  • What is the presenter's plan regarding the crypto market?

    -The presenter mentions that they will cover their personal plan fully in a video next week. However, they suggest considering exiting the market at some point in 2025 and potentially accumulating more Bitcoin around 12 months after the peak of the current cycle.

  • What advice does the presenter give to viewers regarding their own plans for the crypto market?

    -The presenter advises viewers to decide on their own plan now, whether it is to hold (hodl) throughout, dollar cost average, aim to exit the market for a period of time and re-enter, or try to trade the ups and downs. The presenter emphasizes that the time to make a plan is now.

  • What does the presenter suggest regarding the potential for exponential gains in the current crypto market cycle?

    -While Plan B thinks that this time around, Bitcoin could see exponential gains reaching $575,000, the presenter suggests that their own plan will be more conservative, hinting that they may not fully agree with such an aggressive price target.

  • How does the presenter view the overall outlook for the crypto market in the coming months?

    -The presenter believes that regardless of the specific price targets, the crypto market is likely to be exploding higher over the coming months, indicating an expectation of a strong bull market in the near future.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Navigating Bitcoin's New All-Time High and the Stock-to-Flow Model

The video discusses Bitcoin setting a new all-time high price before the halving event, which is an unprecedented occurrence in previous cycles. The creator expresses appreciation for the Stock-to-Flow model by Plan B, as it helps navigate the volatility of the crypto market. However, a caution is raised about multiple versions of the Stock-to-Flow model circulating, leading to potential confusion. The creator emphasizes the importance of using the original version for accurate analysis.

05:01

🔮 Forecasting Bitcoin's Price Trajectory with Stock-to-Flow

This section examines how the Stock-to-Flow model can be used to predict Bitcoin's potential price trajectory over the next one to two years. The model suggests an ambitious target of $575,000 per Bitcoin by Q3 2025, representing a 750% gain from the current price. However, the creator acknowledges that this target seems extremely high-risk. Alternative, more conservative targets are discussed, such as aiming for 50% ($100,000), 100% ($140,000), or 200% ($210,000) gains, which correspond to Bitcoin breaking its previous all-time high by different multiples.

10:03

🚀 The Crypto Bull Market and Key Indicators

The video summarizes the creator's perspective on Bitcoin's recent all-time high price achievement before the halving event, which is a first in previous cycles. The Stock-to-Flow model is praised for its simplicity in helping navigate the crypto market's volatility, but a word of caution is given about the multiple versions circulating and the importance of using the original version. The cyclical nature of the crypto market is highlighted, with four-year cycles of booms and busts, indicating another massive selloff and crypto winter ahead. The creator advises viewers to decide on their plan, whether to hold, dollar-cost average, aim to exit the market temporarily, or trade the ups and downs. A personal plan is promised for the next video. Finally, Plan B's Bitcoin Market Cycle indicator is discussed, signaling the beginning of the bull market and potential for face-melting rallies in the coming 6 to 12 months.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital cryptocurrency that operates on blockchain technology. It is the first and most well-known cryptocurrency. The video discusses Bitcoin's recent all-time high price and its cyclical market behavior around the 'halving' events, which occur approximately every four years and reduce the rate at which new bitcoins are created.

💡All-Time High

An all-time high refers to the highest price level reached by an asset, such as Bitcoin, in its trading history. The video highlights that Bitcoin set a new all-time high price before the upcoming 'halving' event, which is described as an unprecedented occurrence in previous market cycles.

💡Halving

The 'halving' is an event that occurs approximately every four years in the Bitcoin network, where the reward for mining new blocks is halved. This event is designed to control the supply of new bitcoins entering circulation. The video suggests that Bitcoin's price typically experiences significant volatility and growth leading up to and following these 'halving' events.

💡Leverage

Leverage refers to the use of borrowed funds or debt to increase one's investment exposure. The video mentions that some traders with leveraged long positions (betting on price increases) in the US were liquidated when Bitcoin hit its new all-time high, implying that their leveraged positions were forcibly closed due to insufficient funds or margin.

💡Bull Market

A bull market is a financial market condition characterized by rising prices and investor confidence. The video suggests that a new bull market in Bitcoin is beginning, which could lead to significant price increases over the next 1 to 2 years, as indicated by the 'Stock-to-Flow' model discussed.

💡Stock-to-Flow Model

The Stock-to-Flow model is a quantitative model used to analyze and predict the value of scarce assets like Bitcoin. It relates the existing stock (supply) of an asset to its flow (new production rate). The video presents this model as a useful tool for navigating the volatility of the crypto market and predicting potential future price levels.

💡Crypto Winter

A 'crypto winter' refers to a prolonged period of declining prices and reduced market activity in the cryptocurrency market. The video mentions that the presenter had experienced a 'crypto winter' in 2017, where they lost a significant portion of their investment due to a lack of understanding of the market's cyclical nature.

💡Accumulation

Accumulation is the process of gradually acquiring or building up a position in an asset over time. The video suggests that the accumulation phase in the Bitcoin market cycle has just finished, indicating the potential start of a new bull market phase.

💡Risk

Risk refers to the potential for loss or underperformance of an investment. The video discusses different risk levels associated with various Bitcoin price targets, ranging from low-risk (50% gain) to high-risk (750% gain), based on the Stock-to-Flow model's predictions.

💡HODL

HODL is a misspelling of the word 'hold' that has become a popular term in the cryptocurrency community, referring to the strategy of holding onto one's cryptocurrency investments for the long term, regardless of short-term price fluctuations. The video mentions this strategy as an option for investors.

Highlights

Bitcoin has set a new all-time high, smashing another record which is a new all-time high before the halving, something that's never been done before in previous cycles.

The stock-to-flow model has helped navigate the crazy volatility of the crypto market.

A caution about the different versions of the stock-to-flow model and the importance of looking at the right one.

The crypto market has been very cyclical with four-year cycles of booms and busts, revolving around the halving events.

The stock-to-flow model predicts a huge price of $575,000 for Bitcoin by Q3 2025, a 750% gain from the current price.

Low-risk target: 50% from here, around $100,000. Bitcoin should break $100,000 in this cycle.

Medium-risk target: 100% from here, around $140,000 (2x previous all-time high).

High-risk target: 200% from here, around $210,000 (3x previous all-time high).

The $575,000 target seems extremely high-risk, especially if trying to time the market.

Plan B's Bitcoin Market Cycle chart shows the bull market has just begun, signaling the potential for face-melting rallies in the next 6-12 months.

It's challenging to accumulate during the brutal bear markets when prices have dropped significantly.

The importance of having a plan: whether to hold, dollar-cost average, aim to exit and re-enter, or trade the ups and downs.

The speaker's personal plan will be covered in the next video.

No one knows exactly where the crypto roller coaster is going, so it's crucial to make a plan now.

The new Super Thanks commenting system is being tested to combat spam and trading bots on YouTube comments.

Transcripts

play00:00

hey guys welcome back now as you may

play00:02

know Bitcoin has set a new alltime high

play00:07

and smashing another record which is a

play00:10

new alltime high before the harving

play00:13

something that's never been done before

play00:15

in previous Cycles interestingly just as

play00:19

the all-time high was set many folks in

play00:21

the US with leveraged long positions got

play00:26

liquidated causing a huge flush out and

play00:30

then all the clever people over in Asia

play00:33

overnight bought the dip now the big

play00:37

question is as this new bull market is

play00:40

beginning to kick off how high could

play00:42

this thing be going well one chart

play00:45

that's really helped me navigate the

play00:47

crazy volatility of the crypto Market

play00:50

has been stock to Flow by

play00:54

planb however over the years there is

play00:57

something that everyone needs to be made

play00:59

aware aware of which is why in this

play01:02

video we'll be covering firstly a stock

play01:04

to flow model caution so nobody gets

play01:07

caught out looking at the wrong data

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when making very important decisions

play01:13

then using the stock to flow model we'll

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ask the big question just how high will

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prices be going over the next 1 to 2

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years how much of a price explosion

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could we be seeing and then we'll finish

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with a big indicator that just got

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triggered indicating that the face

play01:33

melting rallies of the crypto bull

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market may have just begun okay so first

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up I am a big fan of the stock to flow

play01:42

model however there is one thing that

play01:45

everyone needs to be made aware of when

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looking at this

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model so firstly we're going to begin

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with a bit of a caution when it comes to

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the stock stock to flow model however

play02:01

firstly let me just say that I am a big

play02:04

fan of the stock to flow model and if

play02:08

only this was available when I first

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started which was in 2017 I think I got

play02:15

into the crypto market around about here

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and we had nothing really to look at in

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comparison to what we have today if I

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would have had stock to flow I would

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have known that we are in the final

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stage of this blowoff top and avoided a

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very nasty crypto winter but I joined

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about here I had no idea no context onto

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what has gone before that this was a

play02:45

cyclical Market going in booms and busts

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revolving around the harving and we were

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would have been an very late stage so I

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quickly doubled my investment tripled my

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my investment quadrupled my investment

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and just as I'm feeling rich and

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thinking this is super easy and I'm

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patting myself on the back I then went

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on to lose about 80% of the money and

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again not knowing that this was the

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bottom we didn't get stock to flow or I

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didn't come across stock to flow until a

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later date so the great thing is is that

play03:25

it's incredibly simple and it shows the

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C locality around the harving events

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which is in blue so we're just about to

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get another one fouryear cycles of booms

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and busts however the caution is is that

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over the years we're starting to get

play03:44

multiple versions pop up and all with

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diff slightly different prices so would

play03:51

you know that you're looking at this one

play03:54

or would you know that you're looking at

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this one in the last chart we had all

play03:59

already reached the stock to flow line

play04:01

however in this one we're still below

play04:04

the line or how about this one again

play04:08

another one that's being shed or it

play04:10

could be this one so as you can see the

play04:13

problem is is that there's becoming many

play04:17

different versions so just be sure to

play04:20

make sure that you're looking at the

play04:22

right one for me it's version one the

play04:26

original one that seems to be the best

play04:29

and the updated versions are not as good

play04:32

so right now it should have just clipped

play04:35

the stock to flow line here now the

play04:37

other thing we can look at is try to

play04:39

answer the question just how high could

play04:42

crypto be going over the next couple of

play04:46

years so what does stock to flow say

play04:48

about

play04:54

that so the idea here is that as

play04:58

mentioned the crypto market so far has

play05:01

been very cyclical roughly about 2 to 3

play05:04

years of an upm market and then a

play05:06

oneyear brutal crypto winter 3 years up

play05:10

one year down 3 years up and one year

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down now some people might just want to

play05:16

dollar cost average and hold their

play05:18

Bitcoin or crypto for 10 20 30 years and

play05:22

so you don't really have to worry about

play05:25

timing however now that we do have stock

play05:28

to flow and I can see that it's cyclical

play05:30

my personal plan will be to exit the

play05:33

market at some point in

play05:36

2025 likely so what does stock to flow

play05:39

say about how high prices could be going

play05:42

well by Q3 in

play05:45

2025 this line is predicting a huge

play05:49

price of

play05:52

$575,000 Bitcoin so this is a huge

play05:58

increase and it is a

play06:01

750 gain from today's price so all that

play06:06

in about 1 to2 years I would say is an

play06:09

incredibly ambitious Target now I'll

play06:12

cover my personal plan fully in a video

play06:16

next week but as a Rough Guide I would

play06:19

say it's all about risk and a lowrisk

play06:22

Target might be 50% from here meaning

play06:26

you'd get out around

play06:28

$100,000 I think it's fairly safe to say

play06:31

in this current cycle Bitcoin should

play06:34

break 100,000 a medium risk strategy

play06:39

might be 100% from here and this would

play06:42

give about

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$140,000 Bitcoin which would be around

play06:47

two times its previous alltime High an

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important metric and I'd say a higher

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risk number is probably 200% from here

play06:58

which is a about

play07:01

210,000 and this would be three times

play07:03

bitcoin's previous all-time high so as

play07:06

you can see stock to flow and plan B

play07:08

saying that this time it's going to be

play07:11

exponential gains this to me just seems

play07:15

extremely high risk now if you're

play07:18

planning on just hodling and never

play07:20

selling then there's no harm just seeing

play07:23

if this plays out however if you're

play07:25

going to try and time the crypto market

play07:28

and get out at some point I would say be

play07:31

very careful with this target however

play07:35

it's your money your investment and this

play07:37

important decision is going to be up to

play07:40

you now finally let's just cover one

play07:43

indicator by Plan B which was just

play07:52

triggered so another great chart from

play07:54

Plan B is his Bitcoin Market cycle and

play07:57

very similar to stock flow and nicely

play08:00

color coordinated and it split into four

play08:03

parts we have the big bull market we

play08:06

have distribution or selling we have the

play08:09

bare Market the brutal worst parts of

play08:12

the cycle the accumulation phase and

play08:15

then onto the bull market again so bull

play08:18

market distribution bare Market

play08:21

accumulation and the thing that's just

play08:23

triggered for everyone to see is we've

play08:26

had these highs here we went through

play08:28

this Brut arguably worst crypto winter

play08:31

so far this being the absolute worst and

play08:36

it's saying we've just finished the

play08:38

accumulation stage and the Big Red Dot

play08:42

signals that the bull market has just

play08:46

begun and this is when you really get to

play08:49

see the full force the face melting

play08:53

rallies of the crypto market and it

play08:55

could be 6 to 12 months of massive gain

play08:59

if history repeats so this is very

play09:03

exciting times it just goes to show how

play09:06

hard it is to buy in the brutal bare

play09:10

markets so I tip my hat to anyone who

play09:14

was able to accumulate here cuz it's

play09:16

incredibly hard to do people have just

play09:20

lost 50 to 90% of their money the last

play09:25

thing that you want to do is put

play09:27

anything you have left back into the

play09:29

crypto Market however for the next cycle

play09:32

this will also be part of my plan to try

play09:35

and accumulate it'll be roughly about 12

play09:39

months after the peak however this time

play09:41

around I did do quite a lot of

play09:44

accumulating in this zone so I have to

play09:47

be happy about that and what an exciting

play09:50

time the next 6 to 12 months is going to

play09:58

be

play10:00

Bitcoin recently hit a new all-time high

play10:03

smashing another record which was a new

play10:06

all-time high before the harving

play10:08

something that's never been done before

play10:10

in previous Cycles I'm a big fan of

play10:13

stock to flow as it's a very simple

play10:15

chart to help us navigate the insane

play10:18

volatility of the crypto Market however

play10:21

just check to see which version that

play10:23

you're looking at not to get caught out

play10:26

with Ever Changing versions it's

play10:29

important to note that the crypto market

play10:31

so far has been very cyclical fouryear

play10:34

cycles of booms and busts indicating

play10:38

that there's going to be another massive

play10:40

selloff and crypto winter so you need to

play10:43

decide now what your plan is going to be

play10:48

now you could just huddle throughout you

play10:50

could just dollar cost average all the

play10:52

way through will you be aiming to get

play10:55

out of the market for a period of time

play10:57

then back in the market or you could

play10:59

just try and trade the ups and downs all

play11:02

the way through now I'll be covering my

play11:05

personal plan next week so be sure to

play11:09

subscribe to not miss that video now

play11:12

Plan B thinks that this time around

play11:14

we're going to get exponential gains

play11:16

seeing a bitcoin price all the way up to

play11:22

$575,000 an8 times increase from today's

play11:26

price as you'll see next week my plan is

play11:29

is a bit more conservative and finally

play11:32

regardless it looks like the crypto

play11:34

Market will be exploding higher over the

play11:37

coming months and remember no one knows

play11:41

exactly where this crazy roller coaster

play11:44

is going to be going so the time to make

play11:46

your plan is now so there you are guys

play11:50

hope you enjoyed now you tell me plan

play11:52

B's Target of

play11:55

$575,000 Bitcoin is that something

play11:58

that's going to happen in the next 1 to

play12:00

2 years let me know below however just

play12:03

remember to get rid of 100% of the

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comment spam and trading Bots that

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Plague YouTube comments we are trying

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out the new super thanks commenting

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system so to get your question or

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comment read and replied to or just to

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say thanks then use super thanks below

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and for now just to say if you did enjoy

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anything in the video then drop a like

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and a thank you to everyone who does and

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I'll see you in the next

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video bye for

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[Music]

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now

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