ONE MORE 30% FALL IN BITCOIN

Summary

In this video, the host discusses the current state of Bitcoin's price and anticipates a significant pullback before a potential rise to new all-time highs. They compare Bitcoin's current market cycle with its previous one, using moving averages as a key indicator. The host also briefly touches on marijuana stocks, traditional markets, and the correlation between them and Bitcoin. They express a short-term bearish outlook on Bitcoin and Ethereum, with a focus on the 50-day moving average as a critical support level. The video concludes with the host's predictions for Bitcoin's future price movements and a reminder that the content is not financial advice.

Takeaways

• 📉 The speaker anticipates a final major pullback for Bitcoin before it reaches new all-time highs.
• 📊 The video reflects on the previous market cycle to make predictions for Bitcoin's future.
• 🔢 Bitcoin's price at the time of the video is $26,000 after a significant pullback.
• 📈 The speaker uses moving averages (12-day and 50-day) as a trading strategy for Bitcoin.
• 🔄 Bitcoin is currently trapped between the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages.
• 📌 The speaker is short-term bearish on Bitcoin, not excited about the current daily chart.
• 🔮 Ethereum's weekly chart appears weaker than Bitcoin's, suggesting more downside potential.
• 🚫 The speaker advises against buying Ethereum due to its bearish outlook across various timeframes.
• 📅 The speaker expects a buying opportunity for Bitcoin in the next month, similar to past cycles.
• 📉 A potential 25-30% pullback from the current price is anticipated, targeting a price around $20,000.
• ⚠️ The speaker emphasizes that the content is not financial advice and encourages viewers to make their own decisions.

Q & A

What is the speaker's general sentiment about the current Bitcoin market cycle?

The speaker believes that there will be one final major pullback before Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs, and they are anticipating a buying opportunity similar to previous market cycles.

How does the speaker use moving averages to analyze Bitcoin's price?

The speaker uses the 12-day (red) and 5-day (green) moving averages to determine potential buy and sell points, suggesting that selling when the green crosses below the red and buying when it crosses above has historically been a successful strategy.

What is the speaker's short-term outlook for Bitcoin?

The speaker is short-term bearish, noting that Bitcoin is currently trapped between moving averages and there is not a lot of certainty on the 7-Day chart.

How does Ethereum's price chart compare to Bitcoin's according to the speaker?

The speaker observes that Ethereum's weekly chart looks much weaker than Bitcoin's, suggesting that there will be more downside for Ethereum and potentially leading to a similar trend for Bitcoin.

What is the speaker's strategy for buying Bitcoin in the current market conditions?

The speaker has buy orders set just below $20,000 and is hoping for a pullback to around $13,000, believing that a significant drop would be the last buying opportunity before Bitcoin takes off.

How does the speaker compare the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets like stocks?

The speaker notes that while there is still some correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets, it is not as strong as it used to be, citing Tesla and S&P 500 (SPY) as examples of stocks that are performing differently from Bitcoin.

What historical pattern is the speaker looking for in the Bitcoin market cycle?

The speaker is looking for a pattern similar to previous market cycles where Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback before reaching new all-time highs, and they believe this could happen within the next 30 to 60 days.

What is the speaker's prediction for Bitcoin's price after a potential pullback?

The speaker predicts a 25 to 30% pullback from the current price, which would put Bitcoin in the range of $20,000 to $18,000, and they believe this would be the best time to buy.

How does the speaker address the unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market?

The speaker acknowledges that no one can accurately predict what will happen next in the market, and they emphasize that their analysis and predictions are based on patterns and should not be taken as financial advice.

What does the speaker suggest about the timing of the next Bitcoin all-time high?

The speaker suggests that, based on historical patterns, Bitcoin typically reaches a new all-time high about 9 to 12 months after the halving event, and they anticipate this could happen by the end of the year.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Bitcoin Market Analysis and Predictions

The speaker discusses the current state of Bitcoin, noting that despite recent boredom in the charts, they anticipate a final major pullback before Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs. They reflect on previous market cycles and compare them to the current one to make predictions. The speaker uses moving averages (DMAs) to analyze Bitcoin's price trends and suggests that the best buying opportunities may be coming soon. They also briefly mention other cryptocurrencies and traditional markets, highlighting the correlation between them and Bitcoin.

05:00

📊 Ethereum and Traditional Markets Overview

The speaker expresses a bearish short-term outlook on Bitcoin, citing weak chart patterns. They compare Ethereum's weekly chart to Bitcoin's, noting that Ethereum's chart appears weaker, suggesting more downside potential. The speaker also briefly reviews other assets like gold, Coinbase stock, Nvidia, and XRP, and discusses the recent positive news for XRP that led to a price spike followed by a crash. They then transition to a brief analysis of traditional markets, comparing Bitcoin's performance to that of major indices like S&P 500 (SPY) and Tesla, observing a lack of strong correlation between them.

10:02

🔄 Historical Market Cycle Comparison

The speaker delves into a detailed comparison between the previous market cycle and the current one for Bitcoin. They use a 7-Day chart to illustrate the timeline from Bitcoin's all-time high and identify potential buying opportunities. They predict that a significant pullback is likely within the next 30 to 60 days, aiming for a 25-30% price drop as an ideal entry point. The speaker emphasizes that these are predictions and not financial advice, and they encourage viewers to make their own informed decisions.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that operates on a peer-to-peer network, allowing for fast and secure transactions without the need for intermediaries like banks. In the video, the speaker discusses the price of Bitcoin, its market cycles, and potential future movements, indicating a focus on its investment aspects and market behavior.

💡Market Cycle

A market cycle refers to the recurring patterns of economic expansion and contraction, or bull and bear markets in the context of financial markets. The video script mentions comparing past market cycles with the current one to predict future trends in Bitcoin's price, highlighting the importance of historical analysis for investment strategies.

💡Moving Averages (MA)

Moving averages are technical analysis tools used to smooth out price data and identify trends by averaging past prices over a specific period. In the video, the speaker uses moving averages to analyze Bitcoin's price movements, particularly the 12-day and 50-day MAs, to determine potential buying and selling opportunities.

💡Pullback

A pullback in financial markets refers to a temporary drop in the price of an asset after a significant rise. The speaker anticipates a final major pullback in Bitcoin's price before it potentially reaches new all-time highs, suggesting a strategic time for investors to buy in before the next upward movement.

💡All-Time High

An all-time high refers to the highest price an asset has ever reached. The video discusses Bitcoin's previous all-time high of $20,000 and the potential for new highs, which is a common point of interest for investors looking for growth opportunities.

💡Correlation

Correlation measures the degree to which two variables move in relation to each other. In the context of the video, the speaker explores the correlation between traditional markets and Bitcoin, suggesting that understanding these relationships can provide insights into market behavior and investment opportunities.

💡Ethereum

Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source blockchain with smart contract functionality and its own cryptocurrency, Ether (ETH). The video compares Ethereum's market performance with Bitcoin's, noting that Ethereum often leads market trends, which can be a useful indicator for Bitcoin investors.

💡Black Swan Event

A Black Swan event is an unpredictable, rare, and significant event that has a major impact. The speaker mentions the possibility of a Black Swan event affecting Bitcoin's price, emphasizing the inherent uncertainty and risk in financial markets.

💡Portfolio

A portfolio is a collection of investments held by an individual or institution, designed to meet specific financial goals. The video concludes with advice to create a portfolio that one loves, suggesting the importance of personal investment preferences and risk tolerance in managing assets.

💡Financial Advice

Financial advice refers to guidance provided by professionals to help individuals make informed decisions about their finances. The speaker clarifies that the content is not financial advice, emphasizing the need for viewers to conduct their own research and make independent decisions regarding investments.

Highlights

The video discusses the price of Bitcoin and the anticipation of a major pullback before it reaches new all-time highs.

The presenter reflects on the previous market cycle to make predictions for Bitcoin's future.

The presenter uses moving averages (MA) as a trading strategy, specifically the 12-day (red) and 5-day (green) MAs.

Bitcoin's current price is mentioned as $26,700, with a significant pullback observed the previous day.

The presenter is short-term bearish on Bitcoin, noting the uncertainty on the 7-Day chart.

Ethereum's weekly chart is considered weaker than Bitcoin's, indicating potential for more downside.

The presenter is not excited about buying Ethereum due to its bearish outlook across all time frames.

The presenter has buy orders set for Bitcoin just below $20,000, anticipating a pullback.

The presenter believes that a buying opportunity for Bitcoin is coming soon, possibly within the next month.

The presenter compares the current market cycle to the previous one, noting the timing of buying opportunities.

The presenter suggests a 25-30% pullback from the current Bitcoin price, aiming for a price around $20,000.

The presenter mentions the correlation between traditional markets and Bitcoin, noting a decrease in correlation.

The presenter discusses the importance of not being obsessed with market charts and living life outside of trading.

The video emphasizes that the content is not financial advice and encourages viewers to make their own decisions.

The presenter shares their portfolio strategy, advocating for creating a portfolio that one loves.

Transcripts

welcome back everyone Mariah monetized

here and in today's video I'm going to

be getting into the price of Bitcoin I

know that it's been a while since I've

done this but to be honest with you the

charts have been rather boring which I

had anticipated I do still think that

we're going to get one final major

pullback before Bitcoin takes off to new

all-time highs you've been watching my

previous videos like I mentioned I was

anticipating this time of year somewhere

between September October to being the

buying opportunity in today's video I'm

going to be reflecting back on the

previous cycle and putting side by side

the previous Market cycle with bitcoin's

current market cycle to be able to make

some predictions on what I believe is

going to happen next don't forget that

the truth of the matter is nobody really

knows what's going to happen next we're

just all trying to make our best

predictions so I'm going to first do a

micro perspective on bitcoin and then

I'm going to zoom out compare the

previous Market cycle to to now and um

what I'm going to be doing is uh

basically taking like the weeks out from

bitcoin's alltime high of $20,000 and

I'm going to be taking how many weeks

out Bitcoin was when there was a perfect

buying opportunity and comparing it to

what we currently seeing this is always

uh tells a very interesting story so I'm

looking forward to getting into it we're

also going to be going over uh just some

marijuana stocks briefly and also

traditional markets to see there's

correlation like we've I mentioned many

times in this on on this particular

Channel correlation tends to happen

between traditional markets and Bitcoin

but is that currently still happening

happening happening it sounded like it

was the wrong gramar but you don't have

to worry my grammar is not perfect all

the time I mess up probably at least 10

to 15 times on every single video but

that is okay no one is going to die over

it so the current price of Bitcoin is

26,7 $6 Bitcoin had a pretty significant

pullback yesterday so this right here is

a 7-Day chart on bitcoin one theme

overwhelming theme on this channel is I

always talk about on the 7-Day chart

these moving

averages okay so I'm talking about the

thick ones here on the chart so there is

the 12 day which is the red one okay and

the green one is a five if you want to

add it to your particular chart okay and

so what tends to happen if you go back

to the very beginning of Bitcoin and you

basically sold anytime that the green

crossed below the red in this range and

you bought any time the green crossed

over and you basically that was your

only trading strategy you would have

done really rather well in Bitcoin one

and number two the best part is you

wouldn't have had to spend very much

time watching the charts which the whole

goal is to just go out there live your

life um and not be glued and obsessed

with the charts all day and so basically

Bitcoin looked on the 7day chart like it

was going to make that crossover but

we're seeing a little bit of a pullback

we're seeing Bitcoin basically trapped

here in between these dmas there's a 50

a 10 excuse me a 50 100 and a 200 dma

we're seeing Bitcoin kind of trapped

right there in that range so looked like

the green is going to cross over the red

but there's not a ton of certainty on

the 7-Day chart I would definitely be

waiting this out this is here the daily

chart on bitcoin

so being held up here by this dma we

have a we have we had a red two

yesterday trading below the red one

let's see if that will hold if not um

let's see if Bitcoin can hold the low

over here which is

2,998 so I wouldn't be excited buying

into this daily chart this is the 12h

hour chart here so what we're seeing if

you want to add this um to your chart

like I said a 50 100 and a 200 dma um

and you can see here the red is the 50

the yellow is a is a 100 and the green

is a 200 just want to reference those if

you guys want to add them to your chart

so you're seeing here that Bitcoin is um

being held up by that particular dma on

the 12-hour chart um I would not be um

super excited buying into Bitcoin here

um I would like to see it bounce a

little bit harder off of that but it's

just kind of laying low in that

particular range this is a 4-Hour chart

which does not look too promising as you

can see here across all these time

frames right that 50 dma Bitcoin is

being held up by it but what will happen

if it will break it we shall see um as

you could see over

here the last time Bitcoin broke below

that 50 dma o it wasn't too good so

Bitcoin was sitting at about $330,000

and then it broke down to the $25,000

range the last time that happened was up

here so pretty critical that uh Bitcoin

stays above that but I don't really

think that's going to be the case

I'm kind of short-term bearish at the

moment I I'm not really particularly

fond of how these charts are looking I

don't like this hourly as well it has

very little conviction but once again

also being held up by that 50 dma was

able to hold it up

here um but let's see if it can do it

again let's take a look here at the 30

minute chart um 30 minute chart also

looking rather weak so like I've also

mentioned in many of my previous videos

ethereum typically leads the way it's

actually a really good reference point

to be honest with you I haven't looked

at the ethereum chart in what feels like

months but I really should be um let's

go and take a look here ooh okay so in

my opinion the weekly chart on ethereum

looks much weaker than the weekly chart

on bitcoin so um I would say that this

right here is telling me there is going

to be more downside because ethereum

tends to frequently lead the way so in

this particular case um ethereum has

already broken below the 50 dma on the

7-Day chart let's take a look it's

broken below it oh my

gosh it's made a lower

low I looked at this and to be honest

with you my first thought is definitely

we will see more blood and more pain to

the downside by just particularly

looking at the ethereum chart I'm really

glad that I decided to do a deep dive on

it because like I said ethereum tends to

lead the way in most cases the ethereum

chart looks really really bad okay the

Bitcoin chart in my opinion um looks

like a little bit of uncertainty leaning

bearish I looked at this ethereum chart

and it's just bearish across the board

4H hour does not look good the one hour

does not look good the 30 minute

absolutely not there is um nothing here

that would excite me about I I would not

be touching ethereum with a 10-in pole

we have gold at 1873 we have coinbase

stock at 75 42 Nvidia

47144 um let's see what else do we have

we have um xrp at 47 cents really

interesting looking back at that

positive ethereum excuse me a positive

xrp news that took it just um really

really high but obviously we saw it come

crashing back to where it was so this

was the positive news they took xrp from

46 up to

94 and now we're back where we started

so people probably thought that was the

beginning of the bull

market nope not even

close so back over to bitcoin let's look

here at the daily chart um I still have

buy order set um just below 20,000 all

the way up to about

22,000

um I do think that Bitcoin we're going

to get a nice pullback I do believe so I

would love to see just under 20,000 I

would love to see 13 I would love like I

said I still think that people need to

be super scared out of their mind one

more time people

need people need to just be like so sick

to their stomach with how low Bitcoin

has gone one more time

26,000 I think is still pretty good of a

price and that people feel good about it

that Bitcoin will continue to rise from

here so what I'm going to do next is I'm

going to very briefly go over

traditional markets um and then I'm

going to look a blast on the past the

previous Market cycle and we're going to

go ahead and check that out so very

quickly Tesla at

263 um let's see Tesla definitely um is

looking a heck of a lot better than any

of those Bitcoin or ethereum charts

let's take a look here at the majors we

have spy at 435 this right here is a

daily chart chart we're seeing obviously

some pullback being held up by that

particular

dma let's see this is the daily chart um

basically has made a higher high but

seeing resistance here at the 50 dma

let's take a quick look so um

correlation

between I mean there's still some

correlation but not nearly as much as

there used to be when it came to um

spying Bitcoin so like this is a daily

here on spy and let's go ahead and pull

up uh the Double screen here we'll put

Bitcoin on the bottom um and let's take

a look no I wanted that to be there spy

okay

so bottom we have spy daily wait yes the

top we have Bitcoin daily the bottom we

have spy daily so not as much

correlation as you can see here on the

daily chart spy is in a uh four to 5 day

upward Trend where Bitcoin is doing the

opposite four to 5 day uh

downtrend so let's go ahead and take a

look this is what is I find to be very

are just like the most interesting is

comparing the previous Market cycle to

the current so we're going to take a

look at the 7-Day chart on bitcoin we

are going

to see where we are here how many weeks

so as you can see

currently we are 102 weeks from

bitcoin's all-time high of

$69,000 okay let's go ahead and take a

look

here at 100 did I say 102 or

103 uh I said 102 so let's go and take a

look

back so this right here was 102 weeks

out after the bit bitcoin's all-time

high of

$20,000 okay so as you can see here an

amazing buying

opportunity

um and so this right here is co so it's

kind of hard to consider that in the

equation because that is obviously an

outlier so I particularly wouldn't like

to I am anticipating the buying

opportunity on bitcoin to be coming very

very soon like in the next month um I do

think that um we need to have the buy

ORD set um because the time is very very

very soon of when I believe the last

kind of buying opportunity before this

happens okay why do I say that I say

that because I would almost like to

cross off this here in the market so um

and it was although it doesn't look like

much on the market this right here was

buying Bitcoin in the6 to $7,000 range

this right here is buying Bitcoin in

like the $3 to $4,000 range so I would

kind of like to ex that out from the

market and as you can see here there is

this zone of buying opportunity that

occurred before Bitcoin just took off

okay and

so that is what I am seeing there I

think that the next month the probably

low will come in but you'll still have

an opportunity chop wise to get in at a

decent price

um let's go ahead

and check out

what so we are currently October 12th I

think it's also interesting to take a

look here at the same time of year so

October in this range you could

see decent buying bu opportunity on

bitcoin obviously like I said this was

the best buying opportunity but will we

see a Black Swan event like that not

really likely so this is October

although the Bitcoin Peak didn't happen

in the same month so that's why I always

take a look here at how many bars out

but basically in that range here you

could even say that we are kind of here

I would say um to where

Bitcoin will have a bit of a pullback in

this range so percentage wise let's

let's compare at

percentage okay approximately let's say

like a 20 to 25% pullback where would

that put

us I could easily see a 25%

pullback from where we are now o isn't

that interesting so that would put us at

about

20,000 and you could see this point down

here is at about

18 so I would say a 25 to 30% pullback

is likely that's what I'm shooting for

that's what I'm hoping for that's what

I'm anticipating that would be my best

prediction I think it's likely to happen

in the

next 30 to 60 days but probably between

now and the end of the year because what

typically happens with Bitcoin we know

about the hav

and then Bitcoin typically um has an

alltime high like 9 to 12 months after

that so that would be my best guess but

like I said no one really knows what's

going to happen you have to make your

own decisions and take your own

responsibility for all decisions all

decisions that you make and this is

never Financial advice so I hope you

enjoyed this video that is all that I

have for you today as always go out

there and create a portfolio that you

love