Doomsday Dollars: Scaramucci & Roubini Decode Fiat's Fragile Future

Summary

En este episodio de 'Speak Up' con Anthony Scaramucci, el invitado especial, el Profesor Nouriel Roubini, conocido como 'Dr. Doom' por predecir la crisis financiera de 2008, comparte sus perspectivas sobre la economía global, la inflación y el futuro de las criptomonedas. Roubini critica las monedas estables por replicar los problemas de las monedas fiduciarias y explora la posibilidad de tokenizar activos reales como una mejor alternativa. Además, discute los desafíos y oportunidades que presentan las tecnologías emergentes como la inteligencia artificial frente a las amenazas globales, y reflexiona sobre el impacto de la deuda pública en la economía estadounidense. El episodio también aborda la adopción de criptomonedas en países BRICS y las posibles soluciones para mitigar los riesgos económicos y políticos actuales.

Takeaways

• 💬 Nouriel Roubini critica las criptomonedas por no ser monedas reales en términos de teoría monetaria, destacando su falta de estabilidad y funcionalidad como medio de pago.
• 🌍 Roubini analiza las economías globales, distinguiendo entre tendencias a corto plazo y desafíos a largo plazo, incluidos los impactos tecnológicos y las 'megamenazas' como los cambios geopolíticos y el cambio climático.
• 📉 Discute escenarios económicos para Estados Unidos y Europa, incluyendo posibilidades de aterrizajes suaves y duros y sus efectos políticos y económicos.
• 🔮 Sugiere que las tecnologías futuras como la IA podrían impulsar el crecimiento y mejorar el bienestar humano, pero también advierte sobre sus riesgos potenciales, como el desempleo tecnológico y la desinformación.
• 🏦 Expresa escepticismo sobre el papel de las criptomonedas en la solución de problemas económicos fundamentales y critica las stablecoins por replicar los problemas de las monedas fiduciarias.
• 🌐 Menciona una iniciativa para tokenizar activos reales y financieros como una alternativa más estable a las criptomonedas convencionales, proporcionando un respaldo tangible.
• 💵 Roubini reflexiona sobre la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública de EE.UU., destacando los riesgos a largo plazo de la alta deuda y la posibilidad de recurrir al 'impuesto inflacionario' como solución.
• 📊 Discute el impacto de la inversión pasiva y los índices en las valoraciones del mercado, sugiriendo que, aunque pueden distorsionar los precios a corto plazo, los fundamentos tienden a prevalecer con el tiempo.
• 🌏 Examina el papel y el futuro económico de los países BRICS, cuestionando el optimismo anterior sobre su potencial de crecimiento y su adopción de criptomonedas.
• 🔄 Subraya la dualidad de la tecnología, que puede ser una fuerza tanto para el progreso como para los desafíos, enfatizando la necesidad de manejarla sabiamente para asegurar un futuro positivo.

Q & A

¿Cuáles son los cuatro escenarios principales que se están discutiendo sobre la economía mundial a corto plazo?

Los cuatro escenarios son: 1) Un aterrizaje suave donde la inflación vuelve al 2%, 2) Un aterrizaje relativamente suave con una recesión corta y poco profunda, 3) Un aterrizaje difícil con una recesión y crisis financiera severa, y 4) Ningún aterrizaje donde la economía sigue creciendo por encima del potencial.

¿Cómo describe la situación económica actual de Europa y el Reino Unido?

La describe como un aterrizaje difícil pero no una recesión severa, con un crecimiento económico plano pero con bajo desempleo y buena creación de empleos. Espera que el BCE comience a recortar las tasas antes y un poco más que la Reserva Federal este año.

¿Cuál es la perspectiva de crecimiento de China y cómo se compara con la de India?

China enfrenta una desaceleración estructural, con un crecimiento potencial del 3% como máximo para la próxima década, mientras que India probablemente superará a China, con un crecimiento potencial más cercano al 7% si realiza más reformas.

¿Cuál es su opinión sobre las criptomonedas y las llamadas 'criptomonedas'?

Es escéptico sobre las criptomonedas y cree que el término 'criptomoneda' es un mal nombre, ya que no cumplen las funciones básicas del dinero. No cree que vayan a reemplazar ampliamente a las monedas fiduciarias en las economías avanzadas.

¿Qué opina sobre los 'stablecoins' y cómo propone abordar la protección contra la inflación?

Cree que los 'stablecoins' tienen todos los problemas de las monedas fiduciarias y no serán mejores. En su lugar, propone tokenizar una canasta de activos reales y financieros que brinden protección contra la inflación, lo que denomina una 'moneda plana'.

¿Cuál es su perspectiva sobre la deuda pública de EE. UU. de $34 billones y su sostenibilidad?

Cree que no es sostenible a largo plazo y que eventualmente el mercado disciplinará al gobierno de EE. UU. Pero debido al estatus del dólar como moneda de reserva mundial, EE. UU. puede financiarse más y por más tiempo a un costo más bajo, postergando el 'día del juicio final' pero haciendo que la caída eventualmente sea más severa.

¿Cuál es su opinión sobre el uso de Bitcoin como cobertura contra la inflación?

No cree que Bitcoin sea una buena cobertura contra la inflación, ya que en los últimos dos años de alta inflación, Bitcoin tuvo un mal desempeño. Sugiere una canasta que incluya bonos del Tesoro a corto plazo, TIPS, oro y otros metales preciosos, como una mejor cobertura contra la inflación.

¿Qué papel cree que tendrán los países BRICS en la adopción de criptomonedas en los próximos 5 años?

No espera una adopción masiva de criptomonedas en los países BRICS, ya que la mayoría de ellos han sido escépticos y han desarrollado sus propias soluciones de pago digitales eficientes. Además, actualmente tienen una inflación relativamente baja, donde las criptomonedas suelen ser vistas como un activo defensivo contra la hiperinflación.

¿En qué está trabajando actualmente y qué planes tiene para un próximo libro?

Actualmente está pensando más profundamente en los problemas de las "megaamenazas" y cómo la tecnología, especialmente la IA, puede usarse tanto para el bien como para el mal. No tiene planes inmediatos para un nuevo libro, pero ese es un tema importante en el que está enfocado para los próximos años.

¿Cuáles son algunas de las tecnologías disruptivas además de la IA que podrían tener un impacto importante en el futuro?

Menciona la fusión nuclear como una potencial revolución en el sector energético que podría resolver el cambio climático al proporcionar energía ilimitada de cero emisiones a precios bajos, si se logra en la próxima década.

Outlines

00:00

😀 Nouriel Roubini analiza la situación económica mundial

Nouriel Roubini, conocido como 'Dr. Doom', analiza la situación económica mundial y las perspectivas a corto y mediano plazo. Considera cuatro posibles escenarios para las economías avanzadas: aterrizaje suave, aterrizaje accidentado, aterrizaje duro y sin aterrizaje. Sugiere que un aterrizaje suave o accidentado es lo más probable para Estados Unidos. En Europa, prevé un aterrizaje accidentado, mientras que en China, un ralentizamiento estructural con un crecimiento potencial del 3% como máximo. Destaca el papel de la India como nuevo motor de crecimiento global.

05:01

🤔 Expectativas de crecimiento económico y mercados financieros

Roubini analiza las expectativas de crecimiento económico y la evolución de los mercados financieros. A pesar de las señales de que la Reserva Federal no recortará las tasas de interés tan pronto como esperaba el mercado, las acciones tecnológicas han impulsado al alza los índices bursátiles. Destaca la resiliencia de la economía estadounidense y la divergencia entre el comportamiento del mercado y las expectativas de recortes de tasas. En Europa, espera un aterrizaje accidentado con crecimiento económico plano pero con un desempleo aún bajo.

10:01

⚠️ Desafíos y amenazas globales a mediano y largo plazo

Roubini advierte sobre las 'mega amenazas' que pueden afectar el crecimiento económico y aumentar la inflación a mediano y largo plazo. Estas incluyen rivalidades geopolíticas, cambio climático, pandemias, envejecimiento poblacional, migración masiva, desigualdad de ingresos y riqueza, y el retroceso de la democracia liberal y el capitalismo. También menciona riesgos económicos, monetarios y financieros como la desglobalización, la fragmentación de las cadenas de suministro y la estanflación (estancamiento económico con inflación alta).

15:03

🌐 Perspectivas sobre las criptomonedas y la tokenización de activos

Roubini expresa su escepticismo sobre las criptomonedas, argumentando que no cumplen las funciones de una moneda real. Sin embargo, reconoce que la tecnología blockchain podría tener algunas aplicaciones útiles, especialmente en la tokenización de activos reales y financieros respaldados por recursos tangibles. Critica las 'stablecoins' por recrear los problemas de las monedas fiduciarias. En su lugar, propone tokenizar una canasta de activos que actúe como cobertura contra la inflación y brinde rendimientos positivos.

20:04

⚖️ Deuda pública de Estados Unidos y perspectivas inflacionarias

Roubini analiza la creciente deuda pública de Estados Unidos, que actualmente asciende a $34 billones. Advierte que esta deuda es insostenible a largo plazo y que eventualmente podría desencadenar una crisis. Sugiere que la única salida sería utilizar el 'impuesto inflacionario', es decir, permitir una inflación más alta para reducir el valor real de la deuda. Por lo tanto, Roubini prevé una tasa de inflación promedio superior al 5% en Estados Unidos.

25:06

📈 Impacto del 'indexing' y la inversión pasiva en los mercados

Roubini comenta sobre el argumento de que la creciente inversión pasiva en índices de mercado ha desacoplado en cierta medida las valoraciones de las compañías de sus fundamentos. Admite que en el corto plazo, esta tendencia podría distorsionar las valoraciones, pero a mediano y largo plazo, los fundamentos económicos eventualmente se impondrán y corregirán estas distorsiones.

30:09

🌍 Papel de los países BRICS en la economía mundial

Roubini analiza el papel de los países BRICS (Brasil, Rusia, India, China y Sudáfrica) en la economía mundial. Destaca que, a pesar de las expectativas iniciales, su crecimiento económico ha sido decepcionante en general, con la excepción de India. No prevé una adopción masiva de criptomonedas en estos países, ya que la mayoría han sido escépticos y han desarrollado sus propias soluciones financieras tecnológicas.

35:11

🔮 Reflexiones sobre el futuro y los próximos proyectos

Roubini comparte sus reflexiones sobre el futuro y los desafíos que enfrenta la humanidad. Reconoce el potencial de la tecnología, especialmente la inteligencia artificial y otras industrias emergentes, para impulsar el crecimiento económico y mejorar el bienestar humano. Sin embargo, también advierte sobre los riesgos asociados con un mal uso de la tecnología, como el desempleo tecnológico, la desigualdad y los conflictos. Su enfoque se centra en analizar cómo la tecnología y las 'mega amenazas' interactuarán en el futuro.

40:14

🙏 Palabras finales y agradecimiento

En esta última sección, el entrevistador agradece a Nouriel Roubini por compartir sus valiosas perspectivas y análisis sobre la economía global, las criptomonedas y los desafíos futuros. Anuncia que el próximo invitado será Dan Morehead de Pantera Capital para discutir sobre criptomonedas y la situación macroeconómica de cara a las elecciones de 2024 en Estados Unidos.

Keywords

💡Crecimiento económico

El crecimiento económico se refiere al aumento de la producción de bienes y servicios en una economía a lo largo del tiempo. En el video, se analiza el crecimiento económico potencial de diferentes regiones y economías, como Estados Unidos, Europa, China e India. Por ejemplo, se menciona que el crecimiento potencial de China es del 3% o menos para la próxima década debido a factores demográficos y políticas estatales, mientras que India podría tener un crecimiento potencial del 7% o más si implementa reformas.

💡Inflación

La inflación es el aumento sostenido de los precios generales de bienes y servicios en una economía a lo largo del tiempo. En el video, se discute la inflación como uno de los principales desafíos económicos actuales y futuros. Se menciona que el objetivo de inflación del 2% para las principales economías avanzadas puede ser difícil de alcanzar, y que es más probable que la inflación promedio sea del 5% o más en los próximos años, especialmente en Estados Unidos, debido a la carga de deuda pública y privada.

💡Deuda

La deuda se refiere a las obligaciones financieras que un gobierno, empresa o individuo tiene con acreedores. En el video, se expresa preocupación por los altos niveles de deuda pública y privada en Estados Unidos, que alcanzan el 420% del PIB, niveles más altos que en la Gran Depresión y la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Se sugiere que esta deuda eventualmente puede ser insostenible y llevar a una crisis fiscal o a una mayor inflación para reducir el valor real de la deuda.

💡Criptomonedas

Las criptomonedas son activos digitales descentralizados que utilizan la criptografía como medio de seguridad y control de la creación de unidades y verificación de transacciones. En el video, se discute el papel de las criptomonedas como Bitcoin y se expresa escepticismo sobre su capacidad para reemplazar las monedas fiduciarias. Se sugiere que, aunque pueden tener algunas funciones como reserva de valor, no cumplen los requisitos de una moneda real y su adopción generalizada en economías avanzadas es poco probable.

💡Inteligencia Artificial (IA)

La Inteligencia Artificial se refiere a la capacidad de las máquinas para realizar tareas que normalmente requieren inteligencia humana, como el aprendizaje, el razonamiento y la resolución de problemas. En el video, se menciona a la IA como una de las tecnologías clave del futuro que puede impulsar el crecimiento económico y la productividad, pero también se advierte sobre los riesgos potenciales de la IA, como el desempleo tecnológico, la desigualdad de ingresos y la manipulación electoral.

💡Amenazas globales

Las amenazas globales, también conocidas como 'mega amenazas', son desafíos importantes que pueden tener un impacto significativo en el crecimiento económico y el bienestar humano a nivel mundial. En el video, se mencionan varias de estas amenazas, como el cambio climático, las pandemias, los conflictos geopolíticos, la migración masiva, el envejecimiento de la población y el retroceso de la democracia liberal. Se sugiere que enfrentar y resolver estas amenazas será crucial para aprovechar los beneficios de la innovación tecnológica.

💡Aterrizaje suave (soft landing)

Un 'aterrizaje suave' es un término económico que se refiere a una desaceleración gradual y controlada de la economía, evitando una recesión severa. En el video, se discuten cuatro escenarios posibles para la economía de Estados Unidos: un aterrizaje suave, un aterrizaje 'suavecito' o accidentado (con una recesión leve), un aterrizaje duro (recesión severa) y ningún aterrizaje (crecimiento por encima del potencial sin desaceleración). Se sugiere que el escenario más probable para Estados Unidos es un aterrizaje suave o un aterrizaje suavecito.

💡Reserva de valor

Una reserva de valor es un activo que tiende a mantener su valor a lo largo del tiempo y puede utilizarse como una forma de almacenar riqueza. En el video, se discute si las criptomonedas como Bitcoin pueden considerarse una reserva de valor efectiva. Aunque se reconoce que algunas personas las ven como una reserva de valor debido a su oferta limitada, se expresa escepticismo sobre esta función, sugiriendo que una canasta de activos reales y financieros podría ser una mejor reserva de valor y una mejor cobertura contra la inflación.

💡Fintech

Fintech es un término que combina las palabras 'finanzas' y 'tecnología', y se refiere a empresas o servicios financieros innovadores que utilizan tecnologías como la inteligencia artificial, el aprendizaje automático, la analítica de datos y la computación en la nube para mejorar y automatizar los servicios financieros tradicionales. En el video, se sugiere que la revolución en los servicios financieros probablemente provendrá de las empresas de fintech, en lugar de las tecnologías basadas en blockchain.

💡Tokenización

La tokenización es el proceso de convertir un activo real en un token digital que puede ser negociado y transferido en una blockchain o una red similar. En el video, se discute la posibilidad de tokenizar una canasta de activos reales y financieros que puedan proteger contra la inflación, como una alternativa a las criptomonedas respaldadas por nada y las monedas estables (stablecoins) respaldadas por monedas fiduciarias. Se sugiere que esta tokenización podría proporcionar rendimientos positivos alineados con la inflación y protección contra los riesgos políticos, geopolíticos y ambientales.

Highlights

Norel Roubini discusses four possible scenarios for the U.S. economy: soft landing, softish/bumpy landing with a short recession, hard landing recession and financial crisis, and no landing where inflation remains high.

For Europe and the UK, Roubini sees a bumpy landing but not a severe recession thanks to resilience in finding alternative energy sources.

Roubini views China's slowdown as structural due to demographics, state capitalism, lack of social welfare, and policies bashing the private sector, with potential growth at best 3% for the rest of the decade.

Roubini is skeptical about cryptocurrencies, arguing they are not real currencies or a scalable means of payment, and most have already crashed in value.

Roubini believes the financial services revolution will come from fintech based on AI, machine learning, big data, and 5G/6G, rather than blockchain.

Roubini is involved in an initiative to tokenize real and financial assets as an inflation hedge, creating a "flatcoin" backed by assets rather than a stablecoin tied to fiat currency.

Roubini expresses concern about the $34 trillion U.S. debt, which is higher than during the Great Depression or World War II, and sees eventual surprise inflation as the only way to monetize and reduce the debt burden.

On the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), Roubini is skeptical about their economic growth potential and widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies.

Roubini believes AI and other future technologies have the potential for both positive impacts like productivity growth and negative impacts like job losses, inequality, and development of powerful weapons.

Roubini is thinking deeply about the tension between technological progress and "mega threats" like geopolitical rivalries, climate change, pandemics, and populism, which could determine the future of the world.

Transcripts

stable coins are there but if stable

coins are the killer up of crypto what

have you done you complained about Fiat

currencies and you have recreated Fiat

and stable coins have all the problems

of Fiat if there be the basement of fiat

currency stable coins are not going to

do any better than Fiat so I don't think

that Fiat is the way to go I think that

something provides you a stable back by

real Financial assets hedge against

inflation is a useful asset to tokenize

that's what we're

[Music]

[Applause]

doing joining us today on speak up with

Anthony scaramucci is Professor norel

Rini he is a renowned Economist uh from

NYU he's a now Professor ameritus I hate

saying that norio because it implies

you're old and you and I know how very

young you actually are uh he spent on

the time I have a great hand right well

that's you're doing better than me with

the gray hair category but I get always

introduce you to my colorist but but you

you've been on the time 100 list you

write for the financial times Forbes

you're a winner of the coindesk top M

Awards you you've served in the White

House and Treasury Department your most

recent book which I'd like to talk a

little bit about which is an awesome

book called Mega threats uh you also

wrote a a book about the economic crisis

in 2008 which I uh greatly enjoyed uh

you've been called Dr Doom in the past

because you correctly assess the global

financial crisis in in

2008 uh but aside from all those things

you're just a really amazing friend uh I

brought you on because uh you possess

Shaman like Powers when it comes to

predicting markets and I want you to do

some of that for us today so tell us

what you see happening in the world give

us the sense for where you think the

economy is right now and some of the

things you're worried about and some of

the things you're optimistic

about yes uh always a good pleasure to

be with you uh you're also a great

friend and I have a great respect for

all the great things you've done and

your success um when we talk about the

global economy and the various regions I

think that we have to separate the short

the cyclical kind of cycle uh from the

medium longterm Trends um in the short

term of course the debate is soft

Landing softish landing hard Landing no

Landing what's going to happen to

inflation to growth to central banks and

the stock market and you have to

differentiate between us Europe Japan

China and energy Market over the medium

long term we have to think about what

are going to be on the positive side

impacts of Technologies in the future

starting with AI on the positive and on

the negative on what in my most recent

book I called Mega threats there are

some trends that are more medium long

term they're going to lead to lower

growth and higher inflation so let me

Focus for now on the short term I would

say there are four scenarios that people

have been discussing one was the one of

the soft Landing where Us and other

major Advanced economy has reached back

inflation of 2% not this year but say by

the end of next year uh without having

any recession that will be the

Goldilocks Immaculate disinflation

scenario second one will be one of a

softish or bumpy Landing where you do

achieve that goal but with a narrow

short and narrow recession short and

shallow I say two quarters of negative

economic growth might not make a big

difference between the two with us in

two aspects if you have a bumpy Landing

the stock market will have a correction

for a while and secondly that's going to

affect the political outcome and we have

a big election coming this year and

whether Biden or Trump is going to win

assuming that these are going to be the

two candidate likely it's going to

depend how well how poorly the economy

is going to be doing so those are the

two main scenarios there are another one

of a real hard Landing recession and

financial crisis that when there was a

spike in all energy and commodity prices

after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Luke POS I and when there was the

problem last spring with the US Banks

and then some European also look like a

risk as of now that risk of a real hard

Landing is out of the picture there's

another scenario especially for the US

no Landing where in spite of the FED

hiking rat uh the economy could still

grow uh above potential inflation would

then not fall as fast as the FED wants

and in that scenario uh interest rates

will not be cut at all this here and

that will be a negative for the stock

market now I would say hard landing and

no Landing probably are not very likely

and therefore we are left with a soft

landing and a bumpy Landing uh for the

US uh the surprising thing for the US

has been how resilient the economy has

been and how resilient even the stock

market has been in spite of now the FED

saying that uh rates are not going to be

cut anytime sooner remember a few months

ago uh the markets were saying the FED

could cut up to 162 basis points uh this

year the Fed was telling us no there'll

be only three rate cuts and then uh the

results about the economy strong growth

the latest results about inflation have

dashed the market expectations about

rate Cuts right now rate cuts for this

year are being priced around maybe 80

basis points for the year there not very

different from what the FED is telling

us and the market were expecting the FED

would start cutting rate in March but

instead now the market expectation have

aligned with something that the FED is

signaling that they're not going to see

Cuts until June at the earliest now the

interesting thing about it is that you

would have expected maybe that this uh

uh expectation that the FED will not cut

as much and not so soon would hurt the

stock market even if of course a a soft

Landing is good overall for the market

and so we are for the US for now in a

baseline of a soft Landing uh what has

happened is that in spite of rate Cuts

being postponed to further out and less

than what Market wanted the market has

actually rallied further significantly

because of course of the uh of what has

happened to the magnifi and 7 if you

exclude those seven stocks from the S&P

500 uh the rest of the market is done

fine but of course not as good as the

magnificant seven so what has been

driving essentially the market higher in

spite of rates Cuts being uh later and

smaller has been the outperformance of

these of this tax stock because of all

the reasons uh we know about so that's

for the US in Europe and the Euro Zone

and the United Kingdom economic growth

for the last few quarter has been

between Epsilon positive and Epsilon

negative uh it is effectively bumpy

Landing is not a severe recession like

the one would have occurred after the

shock to Energy prices because there's

been resilience and the Europeans have

found the ways of finding reasonably

cheap energy from other parts of the

world when the energy Supply from Russia

uh was cut off so the bad news was the

economy is weak the good news that

compared to a severe recession with that

occurred otherwise you know the economic

growth in the Eur zone is flat but

unemployment rate so far is still low

and job creation has been good uh of

course the Euro has underperformed

relative to the dollar and European

stocks have been underperforming

relative to American stocks because of

the tech stuff and um and most likely at

this point given the weakness of Europe

uh the ECB is going to start cutting

rate sooner and slightly more than the F

this year and that shows up in the

current weakness of the Euro but we are

essentially in a bumpy Landing but not

not really a severe

contraction um finally China China is

more of an structural uh slowdown

potential growth in China is at best for

the rest of this decade 3% might be

lower for reasons I could discuss this

is not cyclical structural because

demographic because of State capitalist

because of the lack of social welfare

state because of the policies bashing

the of the private sector by shoing pin

and so on and so on uh but that means

that China is not going to be a main

engine of global growth if anything the

country is going to be well and

outperforming China for the rest of the

decade is going to be India where

potential growth is closer to 7%

potentially higher if they do more

reform so for the last 30 years uh uh

China

uh has been the the rabbit and the uh

and India was lagging behind the air

those roles have been reversed but of

course the baseland from which India is

starting is much smaller and therefore

the impact of stronger economic growth

by India on the global economy is not as

significant as the slow down of China so

so we're in a soft land for the for the

us we're in a bumpy Landing for Europe

and UK we are in a bumpy Landing from

China China and the rest of the Emerging

Markets depend some of them better

fundamentals are doing well some of them

are actually very fragile and they'll

have severe debt and financial crisis

but none of the major ones will have a

severe financial

crisis well it's a it's an amazing

summary I want to I'm talking to you

from H beautiful Abu Dhabi so behind me

is the Arabian or the Persian Gulf

whatever you like to call depending on

where you live call it something

different uh you're getting the

67% growth here as

well uh and I'm I guess what I'm

wondering is about the west and the

sustainability of Economic Opportunity

and growth in the west relative to other

parts of the world like some of the

parts that you've mentioned uh India so

so are we up against it in the west

because we just have too much devast

sending are we up against it

demographically

uh or is there an opportunity in the

west perhaps that uh I'm not exactly

seeing relative to places like the one

I'm talking to you from

noral yes you're right uh you know the

gulf is doing well because there are all

lots of natural resources and in places

like Abu Dhabi and Dubai they've

actually invested it intelligently to

diversify growth in other sectors Saudi

Arabia is trying to do the same thing

all of them have a vision to 2030 or so

plan to move away gradually from natural

resources and fossil fuels to use that

oil weal for investment in other things

uh to different degree of success but

positive um you know uh most Emerging

Markets are fragile but none of them is

going to have a severe financial crash

uh about the West I would say uh there

are two forces one is uh more positive

and the other one is more negative I

recently wrote actually an oped that was

titled uh artificial intelligence versus

human stupidity because I said we are in

some sense in the best of all world

because Ai and a number of other

Technologies of the future are going to

imply stronger potential growth stronger

productivity growth and greater human

well living longer and healthier and

that it's going to be actually those

Innovation are going to start mostly in

the west especially the US and only in

part in Emerging Market say China uh so

we are in this best of all worlds

because technology like in the past can

increase uh human welfare per capita

income economic activity but we are also

in the worst of all worlds uh because of

what they call human stupidity but is

bad policies and that bad policies are

the type of Mega threats that I've

discussed in my recent book uh there are

geopolitical rivalries that can discuss

that might slow down economic growth and

fragment the world uh there is of course

climate change that can be eventually

damaging of economic growth and raise

cost of production unfortunately

covid-19 is not going to be the last

pandemics there is aging of population

on one side and migration massively from

potentially from south to North and P to

rich in part because of climate refugees

in part because economic and social and

political collapse in some fragile

States uh we have this backlash against

liberal democracy and Democratic

capitalism because of rising income and

wealth

inequality uh and that leads to populism

of either extreme right in many parts of

the world or extreme left like we've

seen recently in Latin America and we

have another range of of economic

monetary and Financial Risk the risk of

high inflation and lower growth St

inflation the risk of De globalization

the risking decoupling

fragmentation uh of U having vulcanized

Global Supply chains as we

emphasize Economic Security over

economic efficiency and that protection

is is going to be negative for economic

growth and it's going to cause higher

inflation so there are on one side St

inflationary forces

that are this Mega TR to imply lower

growth High Cost of production call it

stock flation and other for technology

that imply lower sorry uh higher

economic growth and lower inflation but

a good this inflation a good deflation

deflation is coming not from lack of

demand but rather by increased supply of

goods and services I would say over the

short term the next 10 years I worri

that these Mega threats are going to be

more important important but if you can

face these threats and resolve them

probably 10 years from now the impact of

technological innovation is going to

imply another productivity Revolution so

there is hope in spite of demographics

politics geopolitics environment Health

you name it that this may be a better

world and actually technology if is used

intelligently because technology can be

used for damaging purposes could help us

to resolve some of these Mega threats

yeah no it's it's interesting because we

we set up a whole slew of worries and

then the good news is the forces of

Technology improve the society right you

and I grew up with peak oil Theory and

many thought we were going to run out of

oil but then look at all the Great Tech

that led to fracking and all the

innovation in terms of

exploration um I want to switch to

something that we both know a lot about

and I think we differ on know and this

is something something that uh uh one of

the reasons why I love talking to you

because I think we are at in

intellectual sympatico often but

sometimes we're at intellectual odds

with each other we very famously debated

each other on crypto at the FI

conference here in the Gulf in Riad a

few years back what are what are your

thoughts now on bitcoin

cryptocurrencies um do you see wider

adoption do you think that this is as

Jamie d believes it is a pat rock or

Ponzi scheme and then tell us a little

bit about the blockchain ini initiative

that you have going in your business

yeah you know as you know um I've been

skeptical you know of crypto and we have

respectfully disagreed on it I think

that even those that believe in

crypto uh agree that certainly in

advanced economies but also most

Emerging Markets uh these are not be

real currencies and so calling them

cryptocurrency is a misn they're not a

unit of account they're not a scalable

means of the payment they're not really

a stable store of value they're not a

single numer so if you know anything

about monetary Theory calling them uh

you know currencies and is no and

they're not going to be widely used for

means of payment frankly unless you have

really high inflation advanced economies

and even somebody pessimist like me

think inflation might go from 2 to five

but you need very high inflation for

having a process of replacing Fiat

currencies with something else now some

of them imply that there may be some

store of value function for it uh people

say Bitcoin is limited in Supply and

that's may lead to eventually higher

price that's fine I'm skeptical of that

but if it happens so what uh you know

there are hundred trillion dollars of uh

of asset real Financial real estate

whatever in the world suppose one of

them is that uh suppose that for some

blockchain related Technologies people

are going to use ethereum fine but you

know there were

20,000

iOS uh about 80% of them were scam to

start with and another 17% already gone

to zero of the remaining 600 even the

top 10 from their Peak Fallen uh 20 30

in some cases 60 70% so you know

compared to the

internet people said this is going to be

like the internet doesn't look like the

internet and while I believe there'll be

a financial services Revolution because

traditional Legacy system have the

problems we know I'm much more of a

believer that the revolution financial

service is going to come from fintech

that is not really based on blockchain

it's based on AI machine learning Big

Data collected by sensors internet of

things and using then 5G and and 6G in

the future is going to provide the means

of payment credit allocation Asset

Management insure Tech and un name it

and so on and there are thousands our

firms are fintech have nothing to do

with blockchain uh that provide you know

Financial Services with revenue and with

profits so I'm more believ in that being

disruptive in the long term now the

block chain technology

itself may have actually some validity

there may be uses uh it might be useful

I don't think it's going to completely

change the world people believe that

everything is going to be on the

blockchain frankly again that's not

happening and unlikely it's going to

happen but that for some usages might be

actually useful you know I've been

involved into an initiative that is

based on

essentially uh providing a tokenization

of real and financial assets my critique

of most of uh crypto is that is backed

by nothing and if it's backed by nothing

you cannot say what's his fundamental

value but suppose that we worry as I do

about Rising inflation and we find a

sets of assets that are protecting you

against inflation and the traditional

defensive asset as you know was

long-term treasuries but in a world of

higher inflation a long-term treasur is

a defensive asset when equities are

poorly is going to do poorly like it did

when rates went higher and two years ago

and bond prices fell 20% when the S&P

fell only 15% so you need an alternative

to long-term treasury is a combination

of gold short-term treasury tips and

very types of sustainable real estate

take this bundle of assets create an ETF

create an index create whatever and then

tokenize it so you have an asset that is

backed by real and financial assets it

provides much better returns than

traditional fixed income is a hedge

against inflation the basement of Fiat

currencies against political and

geopolitical risk and again against even

environmental risk and do well in good

times and there is convexity when there

are bad times that thing that is

tokenized has a value you know every day

and every moment because these are all

liquid assets is backed fully by that is

not a stable coin because its value

fluctuates daily but is what people like

Armstrong and other have spoken about is

a uh is a flat coin something that

actually provides you a return that is

positive aligned with inflation so I

believe that that's something that

actually is useful to have and to

tokenize stable coins are there but if

stable coins are the killer up of crypto

what have you done you complained about

Fiat currencies and you have recreated

Fiat and stable coins have all the

problems of Fiat if there'll be de

basement of fiat currency stable coins

are not going to do any better than Fiat

so I don't think that Fiat is the way to

go I think that something provides you a

stable back by real and financial assets

hedge against inflation is a useful

asset to tokenize that's what we're

doing

okay well listen I love I love your

strategy which is why I wanted to bring

it up and you are using the blockchain

technology as part of the strategy and

uh and you know it's fluctuating but

it's a it's a core group of great assets

that would would would hedge against

inflation and so before I turn it over

to questions from our audience I I want

to ask you about our $34 trillion of

debt and the growth of that debt it

looks like the CB CBO is saying the

Congressional budget officer is saying

whether it's a democrat or a republican

the spending is not going to stop and it

looks like the deficit will be roughly

five and a half to

6% of the

GDP uh for the next three to 10 years if

not longer and uh is that sustainable

noral and if it isn't sustainable as an

investor what would you it's a very

valid point and and on top of um public

debt in the US also you have a large

stocks of private debt actually the sum

of private plus public debt today in the

US is about 420 per of GDP it's higher

than it was during the Great Depression

and higher than it was at the end of

World War II and today we're not in a

great depression and we're not at the

end of a major global war when in those

cases of course course that goes much

higher uh it's huge it's eventually not

sustainable I think on that one people

agree and you're right on the politics

when Democrats in power they tend to

spend more but uh they're not able to

raise taxes uh to pay for it when

Republicans are in power they love to

cut taxes they say they're going to cut

spending but they're unable or willing

and therefore you all you always

deficits um now uh why has not yet

become

unsustainable it's not become

unsustainable because in an Emerging

Market when you have a lack of fiscal

discipline there is Market discipline

you punish by having your currency

falling in value your Sovereign spreads

going higher and then you have to adjust

same thing even in advanced economies

like Greece Italy even United Kingdom

when fiscal policy goes in the wrong

direction you're beaten up and you're

forced to change policy the problem with

the US is that paradoxically our benefit

this exorbitant privilege of being the

global Reserve currency that is used the

dollar still as a major Global Reserve

currency it's a benefit because on one

side allows us to finance ourselves

cheaper and longer not only our fiscal

deficit but also our current account our

trade and external deficit we can

Finance them bigger and for longer and

for cheaper but the problem with it is

that exactly because there is no Market

discipline for the US dollar then the

market is going to give us even more

rope to hang ourselves and eventually

when these things and will eventually

become unsustainable the crash is going

to be even more severe so we're

postponing the the Doomsday but

eventually that's going to be occurring

what's going to be trigger we don't know

but it could be that in the next decade

the trust funds of Social Security run

out of money and then we have a crisis

because because we cannot pay uh the

benefits with the current uh payal taxes

that could be the trigger or it could be

like last year people starting to worry

about the deficit being unsustainable

then then you start to see some Market

discipline when for a short period of

time 10e treasury yields went towards 5%

and they could go even Above So you need

something of a trigger now in other

countries that borrow in a foreign

currency like Emerging

Markets or even a Eurozone country that

uh cannot print money by themselves

because the ECB does it for them then

the only option if your debt is

unsustainable is to default you seen it

an Emerging Market you've seen it in the

case of Greece the advantage of us and

other advanced economies who borrow in

their own currency is you don't have to

formally default if you have an increase

in inflation like it happened in the

last couple of years the real value of

long duration fixed income goes lower

and therefore your debt to GDP ratio

Falls so you can always use What's

called the inflation tax to get yourself

out of your problem and I think that's

more likely you're not going to see the

as defaulting that's why I am actually

pessimistic and I believe that the

average inflation rate is not going to

be two% it's going to be more five plus

in the US because eventually the stock

of private and public debt is going to

imply we're not able to cut spending or

raise Reven and taxes then the only

Leist resistance means to monetize it

and to have surprise unexpected

inflation wiping out that debt it is

still a tax B said the inflation tax a

more sneaky tax because it's not even

legislated by

Congress it's also current it's creating

a lot of political dissention though too

because people feel a lower standard of

living in the middle class or the lower

middle class because their dollars being

devalued as they monetize debt and so in

some ways it's of a regressive tax um

and and so this this is worrisome and I

think it's going to have a a worse than

expected impact on the political

landscape we're going to get more

Firebrand oriented politicians and you

know more nastiness as a result of this

but we're GNA we're going to take some

questions now if you don't mind and uh

the first one I'm going to hand over

because this is more of a military

question it's about the th savings plans

uh what I be correct to believe that the

G fund and the F fund will be more

inversely to each other and the answer

to that Michael uh and this is Luke Air

Force based on firefighter the answer to

that is correct and so we like the G

fund after our team examine that uh more

than the fund in a scenario like that we

do appreciate the question let's take

another

question this is a little bit more for

you norel uh for years the market has

been affected by the tactic of indexing

and a shift to growth as this decoupled

the market from Capital flow valuation

structures to its own addictive

racetrack it's interesting because we

talk about the Magnificent 7 the 493 lag

the Magnificent 7 what do you say to

David from New York

norio I think that is a validity to that

argument that since a lot of the

investing has become passive investing

following indices as opposed to active

investment that requires to do some

valuation analysis uh it's possible that

at least over the short run even uh poor

performing company uh may be actually

lifted or not fall as much because of

they are part of passive passive IND so

people say in order to have proper both

Market discipline and proper valuation

you need to have active investors that

are stock peers rather than being

passive investing so I think that that's

true but of course over time where there

is a significant gap between those

valuation driven just by passive

investing and the underlying fundamental

the market cors itself so I think in the

short term might be true but I don't

think that passive investing implies

that uh uh valuation can be totally

decoupled by Fun from the fundamentals

over the medium long

term all right let's take another

question worried about the decline of

the dollar okay this is appr propo to

what I was talking about this is Thomas

from Florida 34 trillion dollar$ 34

trillion doll of debt researching

Bitcoin uh thinking about putting some

of his money there okay so I'm a pro

bitcoiner noral is against Bitcoin what

would you say to

talas um I would say that um if you're

asking yourselves at least in the last

few years whether Bitcoin has been a

hedge against inflation I'm not sure

that that's the right hedge because in

the two years when inflation was Rising

sharply Bitcoin actually was doing

poorly it went from a pick of 69 to 15

now that inflation is

falling uh Bitcoin is going higher so

Bitcoin to me looks like not an

uncorrelated asset uh to say equities

but is actually even more

correlated uh than uh than equities to

the economic cycle you know when go much

higher Bitcoin that tends to do even

better especially in times where the FED

is either cutting rates or expect to cut

rates while in times where the market is

going down either because there is risk

off or there's a risk of recession or

the FED is tightening rates the stock

market Falls but Bitcoin Falls even more

so so it's more volatile than the market

is not be proven that is a hedge against

inflation it might be some broader

diversification asset I don't fully

understand it but if you're really

worried about the basement of Fiat

currenc and inflation as I said a basket

that includes uh short-term treasury

tips gold maybe some other precious

metals maybe even food and some of the

uh transition

decarbonization metals the green metals

and maybe types of uh real estate that

may be a basket that provides you

greater hedge against inflation than

Bitcoin

itself okay okay well listen it's a this

the show is about our guests and our

fans and so I'm goingon to let you have

the last word on that noral although I

tried not to let you have that last word

in Saudi Arabia a few years back let's

go to the next question I I know your

views on bitcoin and I respect you're

very smart and Bitcoin right now is

closer to 60 again so you know yeah I

mean that but to your point sir it is a

bable asset and so I tell people if

they're using it very very small

allocations of Bitcoin until it until it

matures and becomes more adapted I'll go

to the next

question that is someone learning about

crypto where does one invest the first

500 if one has a 50,000 or more

traditional investing so I'll take this

it's a I would just go into IIT it's

dollar sign

ibit which is the Black Rock Bitcoin

trust but I uh you know this is generic

Financial advice not specific Mary from

Illinois and so I would just C caution

people as I always do very small

allocations of this sort of stuff let's

go to the next

question your opinion about

cryptocurrency how much influence do you

believe bricks will have over the next

five years so you've already shared your

opinion on cryptocurrency but tell us

about the Brick Nations and their

currency situations uh relative to the

us and whether or not they'll be more

involved with crypto like the country of

El

Salvador um uh you know there was a lot

of hype about a decade ago about the

bricks combination of Brazil Russia

India China and South Africa there may

maybe other country added now to the

bricks they can talk about brick Plus on

the economic side actually

things have been disappointing people

said they're going to grow so much

faster than advanced economies that

they're going to unquote become a much

larger share of global GDP but think of

this country uh China has gone from a

growth rate of 10 to five to now

potential of

three Russian growth even before the war

was at best potentially one and a half%

now probably is barely above zero

because of the consequence of a growth

potential growth as opposed to what's

happening this year uh Brazil has always

been the country of the future people

said they have all the resources all the

potential investment but the average

growth for the last decade has been

between two or 3% it doesn't seem like

it's breaking out of that one South

Africa same problem there is a meanful

amount of political instability it has

natural resources but has lots of

bottlenecks of infrastructure starting

with electric GD uh barely growing 2%

per year and the only really success

story has been India growth has gone

from five to seven but the share of

global GDP of India it's uh it's a very

small now so probably and by the way

this country are very different

economically some producer of services

some Commodities some manufacturing some

democracy some autocracies some export

oriented some not export oriented some

close to us and some of them being raval

of us so there's not going to be common

economic policy by the it's very non

over genus group and China India

strategic rival within this group I

don't think that these countries are

going to massively adopt crypto in China

is forbidden even if there ways to have

access to it India has been also

skeptical and has really developed

fisticated finx Solutions where they

their payment system actually used by

over a billion Indians and allows you to

do payment very very cheaply and very

very

efficiently uh they the amount of

adoption of Crypt and the other bricks

has been really modest and all of these

bricks by the way for now have

relatively low inflation they've been

actually quite successful in keeping

inflation low and crypto usually

probably is a defensive asset when you

have really run away inflation you know

not 5% not 10 but we go to 30 50 100 uh

you know like in places like tur like in

some Latin American countries and so on

and so on so I would say among the

bricks I don't see any of them being a

high inflation country anytime soon

while some of the weaker and less

credible Emerging Markets uh uh maybe

but even the country where people say

they have adopted crypto yeah they have

adopted This legal tender as Salvador

but if you look at the adoption of

crypto for actual means of payment and

transaction it's really tiny so yes

never crypto on top of their own

currency but uh it's not as if crypto is

a significant means of payment it's not

at all and that in a country that

actually has made a crypto legal tender

so if you are a store and somebody wants

to pay you in crypto you cannot say no

that option is really minimal all right

so so so noral I always love talking to

you because you have such a Balan view

of everything I'm going to finish this

up with my last question if you don't

mind uh what are you working on now uh

two bestselling books you've got this

great new product do we have another

book coming are we gonna see another

book from you before the World Cup comes

to New York what well usually I write uh

one book every decade was Crisis

economics around 2010 now uh Mega

threats because if you want to say

something big and important uh I think

that um you have to wait you cannot do

it every year and so on so you know I

follow the economy I follow the market I

would say that you know in my meat

thread books there was only one chapter

about a utopian future so there was a

happy ending but it was only seven pages

in a world in which everything could go

wrong I now recognize that uh technology

can change the world for the better uh

but it's not just about the ey I think

there are about 12 or 14 industries of

the future and some of them are AI

related some of them may not be like you

know the big revolution say in energy is

not going to be

renewable uh because it's too slow it

might be Fusion if Fusion does occur we

resolve climate change because we have

unlimited amount of zero emissions

energy at cheap prices it's a new

technology that is not yet there but 10

years from now may be really the the

killer Revolution that saves us from

climate change so there lots of other

things happen that are positive the

covered about technology is you can use

it in a good way or in a bad way and the

risk of AI are one misinformation

disinformation deep fake electoral

manipulation and I worry we're going to

see some of that already this year two

there's a risk of permanent

technological unemployment three there's

a risk of increas in income and wealth

inequality rather than reduction and

four uh there's a risk that actually it

makes even our own species over time

sometimes Obsolete and also the risk at

uh that AI is going to be used to build

bigger weapon to find bigger Wars so we

have to control that uses it to make it

successful so I'm trying to think uh

deeper on these issues that's why I

wrote this piece on artificial

intelligence versus human stupidity and

I think there going to be a tension

between technology and mega threats is

going to be the one that you have to

think about deeper to see what has going

to happen to the world I don't have yet

a book but that's a big issue that I'm

thinking about for the next few

years okay well I I really appreciate

you coming on and these are phenomenal

thoughts for our viewers and listeners

and guys please go to won.com

backp speakup if you have questions

comments we're obviously always looking

to improve the show uh our next guest is

going to be the legendary Dan Morad from

panta who obviously has one of the

larger crypto Edge funds we'll be

discussing crypto but also the macro

situation which I think is super

important leading into the

2024 election uh we appreciate you

joining us uh here on speakup Professor

norel rabini thank you you and I'm

looking forward to seeing you live at

some point noell it's been too

long