J-POW JUST SEALED THE MARKET'S FATE!!

Summary

Die Skriptanalyse zeigt, dass die Arbeitsmarktsituation und Inflation die wirtschaftliche Landschaft prägen. Die FOMC-Politik soll anpassen, und es wird erwartet, dass Zinssenkungen kommen. Aktien riefen nach Aussagen von Fed-Chef Powell positive Reaktionen hervor, während der Fokus auf Rohstoffe, Währungen und die geopolitische Situation liegt. Zusätzlich wird die Bedeutung von Gold als Schutz vor Inflation und wirtschaftlichen Unsicherheiten betont.

Takeaways

• 📉 Der Arbeitsmarkt wird in naher Zukunft keine erhöhten inflationsbedingten Druck ausüben; es wird keine weiteren Kühlungseffekte im Arbeitsmarkt gesucht oder begrüßt.
• 💹 Die Wirtschaft wächst weiterhin mit einem soliden Tempo, während Inflation und Arbeitsmarktdaten eine sich entwickelnde Situation zeigen.
• 🔄 Die Risiken für Inflation sind abgenommen, während die Risiken für Beschäftigung zugenommen haben; die FOMC-Sitzung hat beide Aspekte hervorgehoben.
• 🗺️ Die Zeit ist gekommen, die politischen Anpassungen vorzunehmen; die Richtung der Veränderung ist klar, während die Zeitabfolge und Geschwindigkeit von Zinssenkungen von zukünftigen Daten abhängen.
• 📈 Aktien rutschen nach, dass die Zentralbank Andeutungen für kommende Zinssenkungen gegeben hat; die Frage ist, wie groß die nächsten Zinssenkungen sein werden.
• 🏦 Vanguard teilt mit, dass der Aktienmarkt überbewertet ist, während die Bank Japan warnt, dass die Märkte instabil sind.
• 📊 Der Goldmarkt und die Reaktionen auf globale Märkte auf die Aussagen von J. Powell werden im Video analysiert.
• 📉 Ein Inside-Blick in den Goldmarkt zeigt, wie die Reaktionen auf die Aussagen von J. Powell den Goldpreis beeinflussen.
• 🌐 Die weltweiten Märkte reagieren auf die Aussagen von J. Powell, was die Bedeutung seiner Aussagen für globale Finanzmärkte betont.
• 📊 Die Analyse der Charttechnik zeigt, dass der S&P 500 nahe an einem Rekordhoch liegt und dass es bullishe Signale gibt, obwohl es auch bearish Divergence gibt.
• 💡 Die Diskussion um die Aussagen von J. Powell zeigt, dass er besorgt über den Arbeitsmarkt ist und dass er vor einer möglichen Rezession warnt.

Q & A

Was hat der Vorstandsvorsitzende der FED in seiner Rede in Jackson Hole angekündigt?

Der Vorstandsvorsitzende der FED hat angekündigt, dass die Zeit gekommen ist, die Geldpolitik anzupassen, und dass es mit der Senkung der Zinssätze beginnen wird, je nach zukünftigen Daten und der Entwicklung der wirtschaftlichen Aussichten sowie des Risikogleichgewichts.

Wie hat der Vorstandsvorsitzende der FED die Arbeitsmarktsituation bewertet?

Er hat sich geäußert, dass die Arbeitsmarktsituation abkühlt und dass er keine weitere Abkühlung will, da dies nicht seinem Mandat entspricht. Er ist zuversichtlich, dass die Inflation auf das FED-Ziel von 2% zurückgeht.

Wie hat die Aussage des Vorstandsvorsitzenden der FED die Aktienmärkte beeinflusst?

Die Aussage hat zu einer Aufregung auf den Aktienmärkten geführt, da die Erwartung von Zinssenkungen für viele Investoren ein positiver Faktor ist, was zu einem Anstieg des S&P 500 und des Russell 2000 geführt hat.

Was hat Vanguard zu den US-Aktienmärkten gesagt?

Vanguard hat erklärt, dass die US-Aktienmärkte überbewertet sind aufgrund unrealistischer Erwartungen an von künstlicher Intelligenz angetriebenem wirtschaftlichen Wachstum.

Was hat die Bank of Japan zur Stabilität der Märkte gesagt?

Die Bank of Japan hat gewarnt, dass die Märkte instabil sind, und diese Warnung bezieht sich nicht nur auf ihren lokalen Markt, sondern auf globale Märkte.

Was könnte die bevorstehende Zinssenkung durch die FED auslösen?

Die Zinssenkung könnte die Tiere der Finanzmärkte wecken und zu einem Anstieg der Aktienmärkte führen, was wiederum die Realwirtschaft beeinflusst, da ein guter Aktienmarkt zu mehr diskreterem Konsum führt.

Was hat die FED-Zukunftspreis für Zinssätze nahegelegt?

Die FED-Zukunftspreis legt nahe, dass die Zentralbank mit der Zinssenkung beginnt und dass die Endzinssatzniveaus etwa 3% um Weihnachten nächsten Jahres sein könnten, was auf eine Erwartung einer Rezession hindeutet.

Was hat der Vorstandsvorsitzende der FED über die Inflation gesagt?

Er hat angedeutet, dass die Inflation nach unten tendieren und er glaubt, dass sie auf das FED-Ziel von 2% zurückkehren wird, was darauf hindeutet, dass er die Inflation unter Kontrolle denkt.

Was hat der Vorstandsvorsitzende der FED über die Gefahren für den Arbeitsmarkt gesagt?

Er hat darauf hingewiesen, dass die Aufsicht auf beide Seiten seiner doppelten Aufgabe ist und dass die Gefahren für beide Seiten des Mandats beachtet werden müssen, was darauf hindeutet, dass er sowohl Inflation als auch Arbeitslosigkeit beobachtet.

Was hat die Aussage des Vorstandsvorsitzenden der FED über den Goldmarkt bewirkt?

Seine Aussage hat zu einer Abnahme der Bond-Renditen geführt, was die Goldpreise unterstützt hat, da Gold als Alternative zu veränderlichen Bond-Renditen wahrgenommen wird.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Arbeitsmarkt und Inflation: Warten auf die Zinssenkung

Der erste Absatz behandelt die Aussagen von Fed-Chef Jerome Powell aus seiner Rede in Jackson Hole. Powell deutet darauf hin, dass die Arbeitslosigkeit angestiegen ist und die Inflation nachlässt, was darauf hindeutet, dass die Fed bald mit der Senkung der Zinsen beginnen könnte. Die Aktienmärkte haben positiv reagiert, und es wird diskutiert, ob es eine 50-Basis-Punkt- oder 25-Basis-Punkt-Senkung geben wird. Auch die Auswirkungen auf Gold, Rohstoffe und die Währung werden berücksichtigt.

05:01

💰 Inflation und Vermögenswirkung: Die Rolle des Geldmarktes

In diesem Absatz wird erläutert, wie die Vermögenswirkung des Aktienmarktes die Realwirtschaft beeinflusst. Es wird auch auf die Struktur der Inflation in den USA eingegangen, die durch die Geldversorgung beeinflusst wird. Historische Daten zeigen, dass Inflation in Wellen kommt und dass die Fed in der Vergangenheit zu spät mit der Reaktion auf Inflation reagiert ist, was zu weiteren Schwankungen geführt hat.

10:02

🏦 Zentralbankenpolitik und ihre Auswirkungen auf den Aktienmarkt

Dieser Absatz konzentriert sich auf die Auswirkungen der Zentralbankenpolitik auf den Aktienmarkt, insbesondere auf kleinere Kapitalisierungsunternehmen, Regionalbanken und Kryptowährungen. Es wird diskutiert, wie politische Ereignisse, wie die Unterstützung von Robert Kennedy Jr. für Donald Trump, die Marktmeinungen über die Wahlchancen beeinflussen und somit den sogenannten 'Trump-Trade' beeinflussen.

15:02

📊 Analyse der Wirtschaftsdaten und der Rezession

Der vierte Absatz behandelt die Analyse der aktuellen Wirtschaftsdaten und wie diese auf eine mögliche Rezession hindeuten. Es wird auf die unterschiedlichen Meinungen von Experten und Finanzinstituten eingegangen, die sich auf eine kommende Rezession konzentrieren, und es werden auch die Auswirkungen von Zinssenkungen auf den Aktienmarkt diskutiert.

20:02

📈 Rohstoffe, Gold und die Reaktion auf die Jackson Hole Rede

In diesem Absatz werden die Reaktionen der Rohstoffmärkte auf Powells Rede und die Auswirkungen auf den Ölmarkt und den Goldpreis diskutiert. Es wird auch auf die geopolitischen Risiken und die Rolle der US-Regierung bei der Befüllung des Strategic Petroleum Reserve eingegangen.

25:04

🚀 Kryptowährungen, Gold und wirtschaftliche Ereignisse der kommenden Woche

Der letzte Absatz fasst die Entwicklungen im Kryptowährungsmarkt, insbesondere die Vor- und Nachteile von Bitcoin und Gold als Alternativen zu fiat-Währungen, zusammen. Es werden auch die bevorstehenden wirtschaftlichen Ereignisse der kommenden Woche und die Erwartungen für die Ergebnisse von Nvidia diskutiert.

📉 Aktienmarktanalyse und Aussichten für die Fed-Zinssenkung

Schließlich bietet der letzte Absatz eine Zusammenfassung der aktuellen Aktienmarktanalyse und der Erwartungen für die bevorstehenden Zinssenkungen durch die Fed. Es wird auch auf die bevorstehenden Arbeitslosenzahlen und deren mögliche Auswirkungen auf die Entscheidungen der Fed eingegangen.

Keywords

💡Inflation

Inflation ist ein wirtschaftlicher Begriff, der eine Erhöhung des Preisniveaus für Waren und Dienstleistungen beschreibt, was zu einer Abnahme des Kaufkrafts einer Währung führt. Im Video wird die Sorge um steigende Inflation als ein Hauptanliegen der Zentralbank diskutiert, da sie die Wirtschaft beeinflusst und politische Entscheidungen beeinflusst. Ein Beispiel aus dem Skript ist die Aussage, dass die Risiken für Inflation zurückgegangen sind, was darauf hindeutet, dass die Wirtschaft sich verändert und die Notwendigkeit einer Anpassung der Geldpolitik entsteht.

💡Labor Market

Der Arbeitsmarkt bezieht sich auf die Menge der verfügbaren Arbeitskräfte und die Arbeitsplätze in einer Volkswirtschaft. Im Video wird der Arbeitsmarkt als ein Indikator für wirtschaftliche Schwankungen betrachtet, und es wird darauf hingewiesen, dass eine Abkühlung des Arbeitsmarktes zu einer Verringerung der Inflation beiträgt. Die Aussage, dass der Arbeitsmarkt 'genug abgekühlt hat' und keine weitere Kühlung erwünscht ist, zeigt die Bedenken der Zentralbank in Bezug auf mögliche wirtschaftliche Verlangsamungen.

💡Monetary Policy

Geldpolitik ist die Verwaltung der Geldversorgung einer Wirtschaft durch eine Zentralbank, um Inflation, Wachstum und Beschäftigung zu beeinflussen. Im Video wird die Notwendigkeit einer Anpassung der Geldpolitik diskutiert, um wirtschaftliche Schwankungen zu begrenzen und eine 'weiche Landung' für die Wirtschaft zu erreichen. Die Erwähnung, dass 'die Zeit gekommen ist, die Richtung der Reise der Politik zu ändern', verdeutlicht die Absicht der Zentralbank, die Leitzinsen zu senken, um die Wirtschaft anzukurbeln.

💡Stock Market

Der Aktienmarkt ist ein Ort, an dem Unternehmen ihre Anteile verkaufen und Investoren diese kaufen können. Im Video wird der Aktienmarkt als ein Indikator für das wirtschaftliche Klima und die Investorenstimmen verwendet. Die Aussage, dass der Aktienmarkt 'überbewertet' sei, spiegelt die Bedenken wider, dass die Preise der Aktien möglicherweise zu hoch sind, basierend auf zu optimistischen Wachstumsprognosen.

💡Interest Rates

Zinssätze sind die vom Geldgeber für das Verleihen von Geld erhobenen Gebühren. Im Video wird die Senkung der Zinssätze als eine Methode der Zentralbank diskutiert, um die Wirtschaft anzukurbeln, indem sie Kredite erschwinglicher machen. Die Aussicht auf sinkende Zinssätze wird als ein Grund für die positive Reaktion des Aktienmarktes angeführt, da sie zu mehr Liquidität und Investitionen führen kann.

💡Recession

Ein Rückgang ist eine periodische Abnahme der Wirtschaftsaktivität, die normalerweise durch eine Verringerung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) über sechs aufeinanderfolgende Monate definiert wird. Im Video wird die Befürchtung vor einer möglichen Rezession als ein Hauptanliegen der Zentralbank erwähnt, die darauf bedacht ist, die Wirtschaft durch die Anpassung der Geldpolitik zu schützen.

💡Quantitative Easing

Quantitative Lockerung ist eine geldpolitische Strategie, bei der eine Zentralbank ihr Geldmenge erhöht, um die Zinssätze zu senken und die Wirtschaft anzukurbeln. Im Video wird die quantitative Lockerung als eine Möglichkeit diskutiert, die Inflation zu steigern, wenn die Wirtschaft in Schwierigkeiten gerät, da sie zu einer Erhöhung der Geldversorgung führt, was die Preise in der Folge potenziell erhöht.

💡Gold

Gold ist ein wertvoller Edelmetall, das oft als eine Art Währung oder als ein sicheres Wertaufbewahrungsmittel angesehen wird. Im Video wird Gold als eine Möglichkeit diskutiert, sich gegen Inflation und wirtschaftliche Unsicherheiten abzusichern, da es als eine Anlage erscheint, die Wert behält, während die Währungen schwanken können. Die Aussage, dass 'Goldkäufer zurückkehren', zeigt die zunehmende Nachfrage nach Gold als einer Strategie zur Risikominderung.

💡Cryptocurrency

Kryptowährungen sind digitale Währungen, die durch kryptographische Methoden gesichert sind und normalerweise dezentralisiert sind. Im Video wird Kryptowährung als eine Investitionsmöglichkeit diskutiert, die von der traditionellen Wirtschaft abweicht und potenziell hohe Renditen bietet, aber auch ein hohes Risiko birgt, wie im Fall des 'Pig-butchering'-Betrugs, der einen Bankchef betraf.

💡Earnings Report

Ein Gewinnbericht ist eine Finanzierungspublikation, in der ein Unternehmen seine Ergebnisse im vorherigen Geschäftszeitraum mitteilt. Im Video wird auf die Erwartungen für die Gewinnberichte von Unternehmen wie Nvidia hingewiesen, da diese die Aktionärsentwicklung und die allgemeine Marktstimmung beeinflussen können. Die Aussage, dass der Markt 'nach positiven Prognosen sucht', zeigt die Bedeutung dieser Berichte für die Investoren und die Wirtschaft.

Highlights

劳工市场不太可能很快成为提高通胀压力的源头。

市场对进一步冷却的劳工市场条件不感兴趣或欢迎。

经济继续以稳健的步伐增长，但通胀和劳工市场数据显示出不断演变的情况。

通胀上升的风险已经减少，就业下降的风险增加。

政策调整的时机已到，降息的方向清晰，时点和步伐将取决于即将到来的数据。

股市在J pal表示即将降息后上涨。

Vanguard认为股市被高估。

日本银行警告市场不稳定。

全球市场对Jal的反应。

堪萨斯银行CEO因诈骗被判24年监禁。

J pal在杰克逊霍尔的演讲中强调了对就业市场的担忧。

J pal对通胀回落至美联储2%目标的信心。

市场预计美国将开始降息周期。

如果8月就业报告显示疲软，可能会有50个基点的降息。

通胀的结构性问题比政府的价格控制要深远得多。

黄金市场和70年代的牛市对比。

零售商对市场的不同信息表明消费者支出的混合信号。

Cara Group报告销售增长并上调全年销售增长预期。

小盘股、比特币和地区银行因特朗普胜利的可能性增加而上涨。

RFK退出总统竞选并支持特朗普可能影响选举结果。

Vanguard认为美国股市因对AI驱动的经济增长预期不切实际而被高估。

BCA Research预测美国将出现衰退，即使现在降息也无法避免。

美联储降息时，股市有时会进入下跌趋势。

全球市场对央行政策转变的不稳定反应。

美国生产力的增长与其货币强势的相关性。

商品市场对Jackson Hole演讲的反应，特别是石油和黄金。

非西方中央银行对黄金的大量购买。

加密货币世界中发生的一起诈骗案件导致堪萨斯一家银行的CEO被监禁。

比特币ETFs为投资者提供了一种安全的投资比特币的方式。

英伟达的财报将是下周市场最大的事件之一。

下周经济日历的重点是耐用商品、消费者信心、GDP增长率和通胀数据。

Transcripts

it seems unlikely that the labor market

will be a source of elevated

inflationary pressures anytime soon we

do not seek or welcome further Cooling

in labor market conditions overall the

continue the economy continues to grow

at a solid Pace but the inflation and

labor market data show an evolving

situation the upside risks to inflation

have diminished and the downside risks

to employment have

increased as we highlighted in our last

fomc statement we are attentive to the

risks to both sides Sid of our dual

mandate the time has come for policy to

adjust the direction of travel is clear

and the timing and pace of rate Cuts

will depend on incoming data the

evolving Outlook and the balance of

risks coming up today stocks rally after

J pal says rate cuts are coming just how

big is he going to cut next month

Vanguard says the stock market is

overvalued Bank of Japan warns markets

are unstable Global markets react to Jal

an inside look into the gold market and

a Kansas Bank CEO just got sent to jail

for 24 years as a big one today guys

let's

[Music]

go and there we have it guys we didn't

get the classic rug pull fact it was

quite a bullish day out there but JP

coming in as expected and pretty much

telling the market directly he's going

to start cutting rates next month and

stick with me cuz I'll dive into that

soon just looking at the S&P 500 now

within a Stones Throw of all-time highs

40 points away with the market color

looking very bullish across the board

now I'm just looking on my main

technical chart here here did just get

the third reversal signal fire off today

last time we got that back in the middle

of July time to top pretty well and we

do have a bit of a bearish Divergence on

the DSi as well however just keep in

mind in technical analysis especially

when charting stock indices or stocks

bearish signals hold much less strength

than bullish signals do in other words

they're not as accurate we can see that

with my reversal signals back in June

and that's because one of the most

bullish things stock IND the sees and

stocks can do is get technically

overbought and stay there for an

extended period of time time markets can

just grind higher on really low

volatility and so we at a bit of a

technical Crossroads in the stock market

this double top bearish Divergence could

play out however we are getting a lot of

other technically bullish signs out

there which I'll show you later on in

this video as well for example why the

Russell 2000 small cap ETF ripped up

over 3% today I'll show you the reasons

why I think that's happened and it's not

to do with JP either because the same

thing I'm talking about is also helping

to get Bitcoin ripping today over 6%

along with regional Banks up over 5% as

well and we'll come back to the charts

later on and I'll show you everything

else that's moving out there to help

give you the overall picture of

financial markets so you can make better

decisions first let's just talk a bit

about what J pal said today in this

really highly anticipated speech from

Jackson Hall the big takeaway is he said

and I quote the time has come for policy

to adjust and just looking in Barons at

some key points of JP's speech this

morning he really talking about the jobs

Market a lot I got the impression

listening to him he's starting to worry

a bit about the jobs Market that last

jobs report first Friday of this month

where unemployment jumped to 4.3% may

have sent a shiver down his spine and

he's worried about this getting away

from him and so he wants to get out in

front of a potential recession and we

heard that with him saying like I'd been

saying recently the risks have moved

from the upside in inflation to the

downside in the economy pointing out the

labor market is cooled enough he doesn't

want to see any more cooling that's not

his mandate he's confident inflation

heading back down to the fed's 2% goal

seems pretty chuffed with himself to be

honest almost like he declared

accomplished on inflation set the soft

Landing for the econom is in play and

bottom line he's about to start cutting

interest rates in the United States and

start embarking on an easing cycle

following his Global counterpart and I'd

say you'd be a little bit nervous what

the next unemployment rate is going to

print at First Friday of September we

get a look at the August jobs data kind

of left the door open that he could

start off big with 50 basis point cut

could have helped the stock market get

excited a little bit today also pulling

back bond yields a little bit as well

with more weakness in the US dollar

affirming the price price of gold and a

few other Commodities today as well I'll

show you on the charts a bit later on so

that is going to be a big print on the

first Friday next month jobs report

unemployment rate that comes in at 44

4.5 he may just go ahead with a 50 basis

point cut according to Goldman Sachs

they expect the August employment report

will be stronger than the July report

and that the FED will cut by 25 basis

points next September but think 50 basis

point cut would be likely if the

unemployment report is soft again and

that's pretty much exactly what I think

as well and there's a look at at the FED

fund Futures pricing of interest rates

going out in the future give a bit more

weight today to a 50 basis point cut but

still about 2/3 of a 25 basis point cut

and I'm going to continue to put my odds

of a 25 basis point cut at 70% however

after today just confirmed what I

thought I'm going to give no chance to

them staying on hold and I'd give it

about a 30% chance the unemployment rate

could tick up and that would induce Jay

to start off really strong with 50 basis

points and get things underway however

that could make him sweat as well

because cutting 50 basis points could

really ignite animal spirits and risk on

markets as well and that wealth effect

can play through to the real economy

most wealthy people have a large part of

their wealth in the stock market when

their portfolio is doing well they're

much more likely to make discretionary

purchases and it's kind of a halo effect

from there so even though inflation's

definitely been coming down and it

appears everything's good for now don't

be fooled inflation could still very

well come back even if the government

does Impe price controls on your local

grocery store inflation's much more

structur and deeper than that with the

biggest part of it being the supply of

money think about the total amount of

goods and services versus the total

amount of currency the more currency you

have naturally the higher o prices are

going to be and so you can thank your

government for being responsible for

about 80 90% of inflation and here's a

look at a 100-year chart of the

year-over-year change of inflation in

the United States and what's one thing

you notice about this chart that's kind

of different to a lot of other financial

markets well one thing that sticks out

to me about the structure of this chart

straight away and what's different to a

lot of financial markets as you see kind

of persistent Trends in the stock market

and commodities up and down whereas this

one's very spiky spikes up spikes down

and it comes in waves it's not just this

nice long downtrend then uptrend it's up

down up down just like we saw in the

1970 Fed was cutting rates in the

mid-70s as well as inflation was coming

down caused a second and larger wave and

sure there's always differences each

time even though there's similarity

geopolitics very similar now to back

then however the US was much more

dependent on the Middle East for oil

back then compared to now however what's

different now is quantitative easing we

didn't have a Federal Reserve create $9

trillion out of thin air and pump it

into markets back then either nor did we

have interest rates at rock bottom for

15 years and so wouldn't it surprise a

lot of people if we did another Spike up

and who knows maybe even higher in the

coming years cuz the fact is no one

knows for sure what inflation is going

to do in a year or two from now JP's not

even sure what the jobs report's going

to come in in 2 weeks from now and I'd

say if this doesn't happen that would be

the unusual thing a lot of people

markets J pal honestly thinking

inflation is just going to do like this

for the rest of the decade that would be

a true Goldie Locks period but I'd say

it's almost impossible given the supply

of US dollars out there and the

likelihood the next hiccup we get in

markets or the economy they're just

going to do the same thing again it's

just hard to see inflation for the

United States dollar getting below 2% or

1% we'd have to see a really deep dark

recession to get that deflation although

that would be shortlived cuz I'd say

they'd just flood the heck out of

markets if that happened anyway way and

so if that potential Resurgence in

inflation over the coming years thanks

to Loca monetary policy does emerge then

what can us as investors do to at least

hedge against that well I've said it a

million times I'll say it once more gold

just looking back at the price of gold

in the 1970s had a huge bull market that

first wave of inflation pulled back

going into the mid-70s and just like

inflation it just shot up to a brand new

all-time high going from $100 an ounce

to almost $900 an ounce in about 4 years

and here we are looking at gold today

he's already the March higher and it's

done pretty well in the last 4 years and

I'd say that's got a lot to do with the

explosion in the supply of new US

dollars for which gold primarily priced

in so just getting back to the data

looking at the Market's pricing of us

interest rates going out in the future

pricing a terminal rate about 3% to be

hit by about Christmas next year pretty

aggressive and you could say consistent

with an expectation of a recession

occurring in that time as well not a big

deep dark one that could take rates

below 2% good news is the Fed does have

a lot of ammo to work with if we do get

a recession being 500 basis points above

zero but I'd agree with Muhammad alaran

I think the Market's pricing in too many

Cuts pretty much ignoring all risk of a

Resurgence and inflation and I guess

this has been a pretty good outcome for

the economy markets and JP now they've

got unemployment turning up it could

have been worse it could have started

turning up when inflation was still

tracking at 4% and there was the risk of

that stagflation scenario emerging and

so fed fund Futures and the bond market

are either convinced inflation's going

to rock bottom or there's going to be a

sharp contraction in the economy to

justify pretty Swift rate cutting cycle

however what about retailers what are we

hearing from them well the message is

quite mixed a lot of companies that have

cut prices like Walmart Target TJX

they're reporting strong quarters

indicating stability with the consumer

we've seen others saying a lot of

consumers are pulling back on their

discretionary spend becoming a bit more

careful with what they buy not really

doing a whole lot of Home Improvement

but it again depends what company you

listen to we just got earnings today

from hot new restaurant group listed on

the stock market Cara Group reporting

their net sales jump 30 5%

year-over-year and raising their full

year outlook to sales growth up to 92%

and this was a bit of a turnaround from

a softer q1 they had they're seeing

higher foot traffic people coming in to

get a juicy steak and of course this is

more the top end of the consumer like I

said if the stock market's Still rocking

they're still happy to be out there

doing plenty of discretionary spending

and the market will reward the companies

that benefit from that we can see that

with Cara Group up a huge 19.6% today on

big volume breaking out to Highs having

a really good year which again is not

normally a thing you would see in a bare

Market a real discretionary stock acting

like this and so you probably saw the

Russell 2000 rip up over 3% today well

Mega cap Tech wasn't that real excited

just up barely 1% and it's normally the

big Tech growth stocks that respond to

the prospect of lower rates and even

though we did get a bit of a bump up in

the semis 2.4% that was nothing compared

to home builders up 4.2% and Regional

Banks up a whopping 5% on big volume

really big solid move there on the

charts and so no doubt A dois J pal

definitely helped small caps Bitcoin

coin and Regional Banks rip up today

however what I think really helped it is

this guy here Robert Kennedy Jr pulling

out of the presidential race and

endorsing Donald Trump which I think's

got financial markets increasing their

odds of a trump Victory and that's why

we' seen the Trump trade coming back on

with small caps Bitcoin and Banks said

to be the biggest beneficiaries of a

trump White House which favors more

domestic company and so RFK could be

Bridging the Gap by a lot of people

caught in the center of this election

and helping them switch over to the red

side and that certainly appears to be

the price action in markets today as

Trump and Vance are more Pro crypto and

Bitcoin than Camila Harris really strong

move there in Bitcoin and we can just

see in the spread of small caps versus

large caps which shut up really big

after the assassination attempt on Trump

then a bit over a week later Biden

pulled out and then Camila Harris which

has been real amazing to watch as last

time she was running for president she

was polling at 4% she had to pull out of

the race apparently now she's 54% and

with that increase in her odds of

winning the election the huge rotation

into small caps that Trump trade had

been getting Unwound this last couple of

weeks however as you can see on the

chart here today we got a big bump up

and I think that's due to rfk's

endorsement of trump likely increasing

his chances of winning have at the same

time we've seen Cala Harris's popularity

grow in the polls we've seen the US

dollar come on off hard as the Market's

getting worried about potential

socialist policies overspending over

taxation leading to a devaluation in the

US dollar flight of capital from us

markets from foreign investors amongst

other things and that's not my political

opinion that's simply the price action

in financial markets and as has been

widely reported from a lot of Wall

Street research houses as well but just

as a side note if you do want my opinion

on anything it's kind of refreshing to

hear a politician like RFK talk about

improving People's Health talk about

improving the diet getting rid of seed

oils getting rid of Highly processed

foods really taking a stand against big

food big farmer the industrial military

complex sensorship I'm sure a lot of

people agree with a lot of what this guy

says I believe his heart's in the right

place and so he could have a real

material effect on this election and

kind of be the swing factor in it all as

he does have quite a large following and

if he's directing people to vote for

Trump he very well just may help him get

across the finish line and all that does

have an effect on financial markets and

us as investors who is leading the US

economy for the next four years and so

he's got guts I'll give him that to

stand up to all these state-run agencies

and call for a complete overhaul of the

system because it's true most causes of

death in the United States is Diet

related and so at the very least it

should be looked at cuz America does

have much lower standards when it comes

to food quality and what can be added

into food compared to other Western

countries and a lot of data and science

attributes that to the big Divergence of

the life expectancy in the United States

versus the health expenditure per person

when you compare that to other country

down the bottom is the spending from 0

to 10,000 per person per year on Health

on the left is life expectancy so

basically America spends way more per

person on health and lives a lot less

compared to these other developed

countries and a big part of that is a

huge cost of Healthcare in America a lot

of people don't seek it because of it

but also a big difference between

America and other countries is the

quality of food generally speaking that

is it's not in every city not in every

instance but just looking at the broad

view of the data RFK is right there is

room for improvement and it should be

looked at for everyone's benefit anyway

I digress getting back to the stock

market interesting to hear Vanguard

normally really conservative doesn't

really like to make big calls and their

business pretty much r runs on

accumulating assets keeping people

invested in the stock market actually

came out today and said US stocks are

overvalued because of unrealistic

expectations for AI powered economic

growth they said firms would need a grow

profit by 40% annually for the next 3

years to match valuation that's double

the annualized rate of the 1920s when

electricity lit up the nation and it's

true looking at long-term stock market

valuations in the United States they are

pretty lofty got some pretty high

expectations of growth in the future

that if are not met could trigger a

decade of underperformance we've also

got BCA research coming out and said a

recession is coming in the US and even

rate Cuts now cannot prevent it they

said every single one of us now believes

there's a recession and that's exactly

the opposite of what the market believes

pointed to a deteriorating US Labor

Market us manufacturing falling to an

8-month low and that things are breaking

down quite rapidly now and it's true

there is definitely a few signs of

softness out there developing in the

economy and just like the inverted Bon

yield curve another thing that's hard to

escape from is the fact a lot of the

time when the the FED Cuts rates here in

the black line the stock market can

quite often go into a draw down that was

especially the case 2008 going into 09

and in the early 2000 did get a bit of a

rate cutting cycle starting in 2019 in

Co but that draw down in the market

pretty much just lasted a month then

prior to the 2000s we did get a little

bit of cutting in the mid90s didn't

really get a draw down we did get a big

easing cycle in the early 90s did have a

short sharp lived recession and draw

down the stock market but it held up

pretty good considering all that and so

it's not reasonable to expect a draw

down in the stock market that are

companies a Fed easing cycle and it's

not really a good sign either when

you've got the world's arguably third

most important Central Bank and their

governor warning that markets are

unstable he's not just talking about his

local market either he's talking about

Global Market we are in the mids of a

transition in Central Bank policy that

can bring about some volatility two

months out from what could be a hotly

contested US federal election

geopolitics still elevated valuation

questionable and the fact now we got the

FED starting monetary policy easing

while the bank of Japan's also signal

more potential monetary policy

tightening increasing their rates we may

not have seen the end of the Yang carry

trade unwind we most certainly could

have another episode or two similar to

what we saw earlier this month on the

5th Black Monday in Japan it's spilled

over to the rest of the world and that's

because the gap between the interest

rates in the States and Japan is

narrowing and that could cause more of

these leveraged y carry trades to be

Unwound and so like I've been saying the

bond market has really been forecasting

this almost throwing tantrum and

demanding JP start cutting rates yields

dropped a little bit more today see that

in the 2-year down to 392 at the bottom

end of this range it's been in the last

2 weeks and the tenure as well at 380

and I'd say that's the market giving

some possibility that JP could cut 50

basis points and I'd say the bond

Market's still nervous about the US

economy however along with the stock

market we've just got a big Divergence

in highe bonds they're not nervous about

the economy at all actually breaking out

to 52 we highs today with high yield

credit spreads really tame 3.2 2 1 on

top of treasuries so markets are

basically expecting the economy to

contract just not a real deep dark

recession but almost a soft Landing or

no landing and even though the US dollar

is weak at the moment and is worried

about what future government policy has

in store for it the fact is US dollar

Reserve is not going anywhere anytime

fast it's still used in the vast

majority of global transactions and the

fact is and I can testify for this as

well as I've been fortunate enough to

travel around the world Americans just

work a lot harder than most other

Western developed countries we can see

that in productivity over the last 20

years has exploded more than the Euro

Zone and United Kingdom and so one of

the big ways how they work out

productivity is the GDP of the economy

divided by the amount of labor hours

work and so America's obviously

technologically out up front but also

Americans work a lot harder than their

counterparts in Europe a lot of

Americans will be lucky to get a day off

for their birthday week or two a year

many of them unpaid however it's not

unusual in Europe to get someone's out

of office reply they've gone on summer

vacation for 6 weeks they'll get back to

you then but my point is a country's

productivity correlates with the

strength of their currency as it keeps

their output strong keeps foreign

Capital coming in and this is just

another reason why the United States

dollar will be the preferred currency

for many many years it's just under

threat at the moment and just moving on

to commodity markets and the reactions

we're getting out of them after Jackson

Hole this morning oil getting a nice

bounce off its support Zone as this

could help demand for oil taking the

pressure off consumers with interest

rates giving a bit more cash and we also

got news the Biden administration had

been buying the dip planishing the

Strategic petroleum Reserve as promised

and that's just another one of the big

reasons keeping crude oil kind of a

gridlock sideways pattern starts getting

to the low 70s government can start

refilling spr still a lot of

geopolitical risk out there starts

getting too high they'll threaten to

release from the spr and the fact is the

worlds a wash with Supply and there is

demand worries as well so it's hard to

see it going above 86 anytime soon we'

have to get a real material supply shock

out of the Middle East for that which

even though we're not getting the

headlines of late it appears Iran may

have backed down however we don't know

that for sure United States continuing

to build up a military presence in the

Middle East one of the largest we've

ever seen in our lifetimes so they're

ready for a full-on regional war in the

Middle East and there's still the tail

risk of that happening which could also

be helping keeping the price of gold

firm in addition to a Davis J pal that's

a Tailwind for the price of gold as well

since it competes for investors Capital

it's less yield on bonds gold looks more

appealing because it's a non-yielding

asset and Bank of America is bullish on

the shiny medal saying investors should

keep buying it is they're worried as

well Fed rate Cuts could bring back

inflation which is bullish for gold

definitely got some momentum investors

are coming back to it we still haven't

broken out to inflation adjusted highs

from 1980 nonwestern central banks can't

get enough of it either Poland using

their recent economic strength further

buy up a lot of gold they're aiming for

it to be 20% of their bank's reserves

and we can see that in this chart here

of the 10 years up until late last year

there been a huge amount of net buying

in Gold Russia's added over 12200 tons

China 1100 turkey 400 Poland India and

other brics nations really moving away

from the US dollar and it's not just

those foreign central banks a lot of

people have worries about the world like

I said you can think of gold as

insurance on your wealth especially if

you've got a lot of it denominated in

the US dollar the fact is it's been a

store of wealth for humans for 6,000

years as many of actual practical uses

and doesn't rely on digital

Communications Network and that's the

main difference between gold and Bitcoin

Bitcoin also has its advantages that

gold doesn't have why a lot of investors

have both good way to diversify out a

fiat currency at least as a hedge or

insurance policy cuz even with how much

real estate's gone up in these last

couple of years pretty much 100 years

ago 10 kilos of gold equal the same

amount as an average house price just

like it does today in other words even

though house prices have gone up a lot

inflation adjusted that's thanks to the

huge increase in supply of US Dollars

gold Hedges out that risk because it's

priced in US dollars so it's insurance

against inflation and the debasement of

your local currency as well and they're

not just gobbling up gold they're also

gobling up silver we've seen that with

China world's still discovering what can

be used with gold and silver we just saw

yesterday Samsung developing a new

silver battery for Ev with a lot better

specs compared to others and just like

AI there could be a global race for who

can accumulate the most precious metal

and just getting back to crypto always

keeps it interesting and entertaining

doesn't it quite often getting these

headlines a crypto scam sank a Kansas

bank and got a CEO sent to jail for 24

years CEO was caught in a pig butchering

scam and for those you don't know what a

pig butchering scam is it's a classic

one as old as the hills named after the

method of farmers fattening pigs up

before being slaughtered criminals

develop a relationship with victims and

convince them to keep sending money

promising lucrative returns from

Investments only to disappear with the

funds later on so it's a common scam

you'll see someone will reach out to you

and they'll offer you something that

pretty much always sounds too good to be

true like guaranteed returns they'll ask

you to send a little bit they'll send

you a little bit more back they develop

a relationship or convince you that

they've found some sort of magic potion

and then they go big then they say okay

send me 10,000 20,000 50,000 whatever it

is and then off they go and so it's kind

of unbelievable a CEO of a bank fell

victim to this and him stealing 47

million from his bank to put in what he

thought to be a legitimate crypto

Investments now he's got quarter Century

in The Slammer and I guess this is what

just makes these Bitcoin ETFs so

appealing cuz a lot of the crypto world

is so muddy murky unregulated offshore

full of crooks criminals everything in

between and so if you can buy an ETF

with black rock as your custodian it's

the safest way for many investors small

and large institutional money for them

to play Bitcoin at the Black Rock

Bitcoin trust I bit now 21 A2 billion

assets under management actually got a

good bit of volume in there today as

well and just looking out to the next

week kind of the tail Ander Q2 earning

season still a few retailers to come in

chewy Foot Locker ab cobby and Fitch

Dollar General Best Buy and a few others

but the big one Nvidia Wednesday after

close that's the biggest event next week

and I'd say the expectation is for them

to beat on EPS estimates Market will be

really looking for Rosy guidance we

don't want to hear any signs of their

customers pulling back on purchases or

planning to pull back on purchases that

could develop a woring narrative of Mega

cap Tech starting to dial down that AI

capex spend have a Jensen hang is pretty

good at developing excitement getting

the hype train going even though he has

been selling a lot of stock in this

period here in fact over $800 million

worth this will be a real test for the

market can Nvidia break out to new

all-time highs help to take semis and

the NASDAQ with it or is it going to

disappoint and we're going to get a big

gap down and the narrative and feel of

the Market's really changed cuz like I

said just looking at the semiconductor

etf's definitely lost momentum this last

few months is consolidating and could be

potentially developing like a head and

shoulders type formation it's not able

clean take out these highs so we could

get a real look at that with nvidia's

earnings next Wednesday just looking at

the economic calendar next week starting

things off with durable goods first up

Monday consumer confidence Tuesday

Wednesday not much Thursday we get a

look at the GDP growth rate rate for Q2

how much did the United States economy

grow in the second quarter consensus is

it did at an annualized rate of 2.8%

that'll be the biggest economic data

print we get next week going into Friday

get a bit of inflation data out from the

Euro Zone they expected to come in

year-over-year 2.3% and then we get some

pce inflation data from the states

headline expected to come in 2.5% core

2.6% year-over-year along with consumer

sediment so that'll be pretty important

one as well to finish the week out GDP

pce and Nvidia ear top three events for

next week and that's pretty much a wrap

for the daily market review this week

guys and there we are on the weekly

chart of the Spy little bit of a bearish

Divergence along with those reversal

signals on The Daily however like I said

they carry a lot less weight than

bullish signals Market's kind of at a

testing Point here at least technically

going back to the daily chart pressing

up against all-time highs with nvidia's

earnings and GDP data then the real big

one will be in two Friday's time jobs

report that's what the Market's really

going to be looking at it's where the JP

starts cutting by 25 bases points or 50

basis points as it's all but certain

that he is definitely going to start

easing pretty much told us that directly

today and like I said in my opinion he's

worried about the jobs Market getting

away from him thinks inflation's all

good for now and the stock market and

high bonds is liking that narrative even

though the US government 10e bond yield

still could be pricing in a recession

around the corner as well either way as

always we'll follow the tape and I'll

keep breaking it down for you every day

thanks very much for sticking with click

Capital have a great weekend and I'll

see you Monday night cheers