Shocking Math: How Bitcoin Could Reach $43M (full breakdown)

Summary

The video makes a data-driven case that Bitcoin could reach a market capitalization of $43 billion. It analyzes Bitcoin's potential as a store of value to replace gold and other assets like real estate and fine art. Based on this, if Bitcoin captured 50% of gold's market cap and small percentages of other assets, 1 Bitcoin could be worth $10 million. The video walks through Bitcoin's historical prices and evolutionary path as a currency, making probability-based predictions using sources like developer evaluations and Wall Street analyses. It advises viewers to invest now before mass adoption drives prices over $100k in 1-2 years and $1 million+ by 2030.

Takeaways

• 😲 Bitcoin has a potential to reach $43 billion based on probability and market adoption math.
• 😎 Bitcoin is evolving to become a store of value and competing with gold and other assets.
• 📈 The total global store of value assets is estimated at $900 trillion currently.
• 😮 If Bitcoin captures even small percentages of these markets, 1 BTC could reach $10 million.
• ⏳ Bitcoin's evolution to global money will likely take 5-7 years.
• 🚀 Bitcoin price targets: $150K in next 18 months, $1M by 2030, $1B by 2038.
• 🤔 Bitcoin has continuously beaten the odds and continues gaining adoption and trust.
• 💰 Allocate at least some portfolio exposure to BTC based on personal risk tolerance.
• 🔐 Secure and custody BTC yourself using a hardware wallet rather than leaving on an exchange.
• 👍🏻 Getting some Bitcoin ‘just in case’ it succeeds makes sense per its inventor Satoshi Nakamoto.

Q & A

What is the predicted future value of Bitcoin according to the analysis in the video?

The analysis predicts Bitcoin could reach a value of $43 billion in the future.

What is Bitcoin competing against to become a dominant store of value?

Bitcoin is competing against traditional store of value assets like gold, real estate, fine art, bonds etc. to become a dominant global store of value.

What was the past relationship between the US dollar and gold?

Historically, the US dollar was backed by and pegged to gold. $1 US dollar was equal to a fixed amount of gold.

What is the predicted potential future price per bitcoin based on its share of global store of value assets?

If bitcoin captured 50% share of global store of value assets, its potential future price could reach $10 million per bitcoin.

What is the evolutionary path for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin?

The predicted path is collectible -> store of value -> medium of exchange -> unit of account.

What is the predicted timeframe for bitcoin reaching widespread adoption levels?

Bitcoin is predicted to reach maturity as a mainstream asset around 2050.

What future bitcoin prices have prominent investors predicted?

Predictions range from $1 million per bitcoin by 2030 (Chamath Palihapitiya) to $1 billion by 2038 (Fidelity Investments).

What percentage of investment portfolio is recommended for bitcoin allocation?

Recommendations range from 2-5% (Wall Street) to 30-60% for high conviction investors.

How can investors secure their bitcoin holdings?

Bitcoin should be stored in secure digital wallets, like hardware wallets, to maintain control and security.

What is dollar cost averaging?

Dollar cost averaging involves making regular bitcoin purchases over time to smooth out volatility in price.

Outlines

00:00

😀What is Bitcoin and what market is it disrupting

Paragraph 1 discusses what Bitcoin is - a new technology and digital form of peer-to-peer electronic cash that is winning as a store of value. It competes against other store of value assets like gold rather than payment networks. The market it disrupts is value itself as the world digitizes.

05:01

😉Bitcoin established as digital gold and growing faster than physical gold

Paragraph 2 shows how Bitcoin is establishing itself as digital gold, with institutions like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs saying it will compete with or surpass gold. Bitcoin ETF inflows are much faster than gold ETFs, establishing Bitcoin as the new digital gold.

10:01

🤔Historical context - how gold and dollars were linked before abondoning gold standard

Paragraph 3 provides historical context by explaining how dollars were pegged to gold until 1971 when the gold standard was abandoned. It shows how much less money would be in circulation if the gold standard had continued, providing context for why some want to return to a gold-backed currency.

15:02

💰 Calculating Bitcoin's potential by comparing to global store of value assets

Paragraph 4 calculates Bitcoin's potential by comparing it to all global store of value assets like gold, real estate, fine art, etc. which total $900 trillion. Even modest share gains of these markets lead to huge potential Bitcoin market cap and prices.

20:03

🔮 If not Bitcoin, then what? No good alternatives to sound money.

Paragraph 5 makes the case that alternatives like returning to gold or central bank digital currencies don't fix the core problem of unlimited money printing. With no trust left in the system, Bitcoin seems one of the more probable solutions for sound money.

25:04

📈 Review of predictions - from Bitcoin developers and prominent investors

Paragraph 6 reviews various predictions from early Bitcoin developers like Hal Finney and prominent investors like Chamath who see Bitcoin reaching millions or even billions in value based on its network adoption and role as a hedge against unreliability of leaders.

30:04

💡What percentage should you allocate to Bitcoin? Secure and hold.

Final paragraph discusses conviction levels and what percentage of assets investors should allocate to Bitcoin based on their belief in various price predictions. It recommends securing Bitcoin in a hardware wallet and holding for the long term.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency and payment system that uses cryptography and a distributed ledger called blockchain to verify and record transactions. In the video, Bitcoin is positioned as a potential successor to traditional money and store of value assets like gold. Examples are provided of major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs predicting Bitcoin will compete with and potentially overtake gold.

💡Store of value

A store of value is an asset that retains or increases its worth over time without depreciating. The video argues Bitcoin is emerging as a superior store of value compared to alternatives like gold or fiat currencies. This is evidenced by the rapid growth of Bitcoin ETFs attracting investment at a faster pace than gold ETFs.

💡Probability

The video emphasizes that the future is based on probabilities rather than certainties. It presents a probabilistic case that Bitcoin could reach $43 million based on capturing portions of existing store of value markets like gold and real estate. But it also acknowledges Bitcoin's success is not guaranteed.

💡Evolutionary process

The emergence of new forms of money has historically followed an evolutionary process from collectible to store of value to medium of exchange to unit of account. The video situates Bitcoin on this spectrum, arguing it has evolved from a collectible to a store of value and has potential to become a widespread medium of exchange and global unit of account.

💡Market capitalization

Market capitalization refers to the total market value of all coins in circulation. The video aims to model Bitcoin's potential growth by analyzing the market cap of assets it could capture as a store of value, based on fractions of existing markets like gold, bonds, real estate etc. This drives the $43 trillion potential valuation.

💡Digital gold

The video positions Bitcoin as "digital gold" - a digital equivalent of the scarce valuable metal that can be used as a store of value and risk-off asset. It argues Bitcoin will compete with and potentially surpass gold, as evidenced by growing institutional investment in Bitcoin as the new "digital gold" ETFs.

💡Confidence level

The video recommends determining an appropriate percentage of investment in Bitcoin based on one's confidence level or conviction that it will appreciate significantly. Higher conviction could warrant allocating a greater proportion of capital to Bitcoin.

💡Custody

Custody refers to the ability to securely store an asset oneself, without relying on intermediaries. The video touts Bitcoin's revolutionary capacity for self-custody through hardware wallets as an advantage over traditional assets.

💡Dollar cost averaging

Dollar cost averaging means regularly investing fixed dollar amounts over time rather than in a single lump sum. This can reduce exposure to volatility. The video suggests DCA as an option for allocating to Bitcoin.

💡Inflation hedge

An inflation hedge is an asset that holds its value or appreciates when inflation erodes the purchasing power of a currency. Along with a store of value, the video positions Bitcoin as an inflation hedge - as a way to protect one's wealth from rising prices.

Highlights

Bitcoin has beaten the odds over and over; it's been called dead hundreds of times yet keeps coming back stronger

Bitcoin is crossing the chasm as BlackRock and Fidelity add millions of people; 3 US presidential candidates openly discuss it

Bitcoin competes as a store of value against gold and other assets - the market it competes in is value itself

Gold has failed as money in the digital age; we need instant transactions and settlement

Central bank digital currencies don't fix unlimited money printing and debt

If not Bitcoin, what other solution is there in a decentralized world without trust?

At reasonable market share, 1 Bitcoin could reach $10 million

Fiat currency is a failed 52 year experiment; there's no way it continues

Bitcoin is currently crossing the chasm from store of value to medium of exchange

The Bitcoin revolution will likely play out by 2050

Early Bitcoin developer Hal Finney predicted $10 million Bitcoin based on global wealth

Chamath Palihapitiya predicts $1 million Bitcoin by 2040

Fidelity predicts $1 billion Bitcoin by 2038 based on Metcalfe's Law

Bitcoin goes through boom and bust cycles, but stays on an overall growth trend

Consider putting 1-5% of net worth in Bitcoin as disaster insurance

Transcripts

the shocking math how Bitcoin will reach

$43 billion we're going to break down

the math now in life there are no such

thing as certainties there's only

probabilities and we bet on those

probabilities every single day that's

exactly what markets are and Bitcoin has

beaten the odds over and over it's been

called Dead hundreds of times it's

crashed dozens of times and yet it keeps

coming back stronger every single time

and now today it's Crossing what we call

the chasm as we see black rock and F

adding millions of people we have three

US presidential candidates openly

discussing Bitcoin and so today for

those of you with an open mind and are

willing to understand that again

everything in life is a probability I'm

going to break down the math I'm going

to break down the future potential of

Bitcoin like it's never been done before

I'm going to show you the odds I'm going

to show you the path it will take we're

going to look at the different price

points along the way the time frames and

of course how to play this if you're a

huge Bitcoin skeptic or you're a DieHard

Bitcoin believer either way this is for

you so let's go all right welcome back

if you're new to the channel my name is

Mark Moss I make these videos of course

to change the way you think about money

because almost everything you've learned

is wrong and it's changing we're talking

about Bitcoin we're talking about a new

form of money and most people don't

understand it because as my good friend

Jeff Booth who will hear about later he

likes to say that it's very hard to see

a new system to understand a new system

when you're stuck in an existing system

so look I get it it's difficult so have

an open mind now if you want the short

answer where is it going I'm going to

break the down the math to how we get to

403 billion and for some of us in our

lifetime all right I'm going to break

down the math the path all that but

first I want to tell you a story last

night I was watching a brand new TV show

I think it was called the tracker it's

not super good it was okay it was the

very first episode that I saw but

there's this guy and he goes and finds

people like people that have rewards and

bounties things like that but he would

throughout the show he kept saying uh if

we go now we have a 95% chance but if we

wait an hour we only have a 5% chance if

I hurry up and get you out now I think

we have a 50% chance but if we wait and

he kept talking about probabilities all

the time we have a probability of this

now if we wait my probability drops to

this and probably I don't know 3 four

five times throughout the show he would

do that and that's how life is so the

first thing I want to let you know is

that all right so the problem that I see

too many people making is they think

very linear everything's black or white

it's this or that there's no way this

can happen or there's no way this can

happen and that's not how life works

okay there's a world of possibilities

everything is possible and then there's

probabilities or percentages that we

think that this can happen so you may be

the biggest Bitcoin skeptic in the world

but still ask yourself this question are

you one 100% sure 100% guaranteed

there's no way Bitcoin will ever succeed

from here and of course the answer is no

you can't say that now you might say

there's a 90% chance okay great then

that 10% you might want to listen all

right does that make sense so think

about things in terms of the probability

and let me break this down for you in

what's going to be a master class so the

short answer is like I said 43 billion

if you just want to shut it off right

now you could have just read the title

but let me break down the math for you

but more importantly like I said how

does it get there and when when does it

happen I bet those are the questions

that you want to know and that's what

I'm going to break down okay so if we

start to break this down the very first

thing we have to understand is what is

it when in Silicon Valley about 15 years

ago when they were trying to raise money

for Uber they would go hey I have this

new app on building I want to raise a

100 million and they'd say what is it

right I'm a venture capital investor

I've been investing in V Venture cap for

probably over a dozen years now that's

what we do what is it so first of all

what is bitcoin is it a brand new

technology sure yeah it's it's it's

technology what is it disrupting so okay

it's an app Uber is an app what is it

disrupting it's disrupting the taxi

industry the limo industry the ride

share industry and then we look at how

big those markets are and then we look

at how much we think we can pull from

those we're going to break the math down

in a a minute but first what is it so

yes it's a brand new technology it's an

app what do it doing well it's sort of

like money a medium of exchange the

white paper says it's peer-to-peer cash

electronic cash so we exchange it for

money a medium of exchange it's also a

store of value as we call an sov all

right now it is winning the war of store

of value which eventually could evolve

into the next stage I'm going to break

that evolutionary path down for you so

you can see the time frame but let's

just talk about the store value because

I want to simplify this and I know it

sounds crazy but I'm going to make it

sound very conservative so we could

overshoot it so let's just talk about

the store of value right now all right

so what we can see uh many headlines I

can continue to pull them Goldman Sachs

one of the biggest financial

institutions in in the United States and

the world says Bitcoin will not could

not should but will compete with gold as

store of value this is Goldman Sachs we

know that Larry Fink the largest asset

manager in the world from Black Rock now

went on TV a month ago saying that

Bitcoin is a a flight to safety right so

it's a store of value we know this we

can see Kathy Wood who runs one of the

biggest Tech funds in uh Wall Street she

says that Bitcoin describing Bitcoin has

both so it's both it's it's multiple

things it's more things than we'll know

in the future both a store value and a

riskof asset meaning we use it to store

our wealth but we also use it to um when

there's times of risk or high inflation

would emphasized that when compared to

Gold the upward trajectory hints at the

possibility of overtaking gold as a more

valuable investment in the future okay

so you can see this from any number of

people it is a store of value it's

winning the store of value Bitcoin is

like digital Gold All right but it's

better than gold I'm not going to break

down all the ways in this video if you

want a separate video comparing Bitcoin

to Gold let me know I can make another

video on that but you have to understand

that it doesn't compete compete directly

with gold because it's better from that

standpoint and again the markets tell us

that that's not just my opinion if

you're a gold bug I am too I've been a

gold bug since 2008 I own gold I talk

about gold all the time but you still

have to understand this don't be mad

this is what the markets tell us as a

matter of fact we can see here the pace

of inflows now we have these new Bitcoin

ETFs so the markets are now voting the

pace of money going into the ETFs is

remarkable in just 15 days in only 15

days the first 15 days open the Bitcoin

ETFs cont raed over $25

billion uh comparable to the market cap

of the largest gold producer barold

within 15 days more money went into

these Bitcoin ETFs than the entire

market cap of the largest gold producer

think about that we can see right here

this unparalleled growth to the second

largest assets under management AUM

Among Us commodity ETFs establishing

them as the new digital gold so they

surpass silver and they are R they are

growing way faster than gold ever did

and they're catch catching up to gold at

the rate they're at they could overtake

gold in the next year all right so the

markets are telling us this it's not

just commentators all right but we have

to also understand as a store of value

it's not competing in an industry right

so Uber was competing against taxis Uber

was competing against limousines Bitcoin

as a store of value doesn't compete with

Industries it's not competing with Visa

or PayPal for people to make those

comparisons is ridiculous it's a store

of value so it competes against other

store of value assets that's what's

scoring that's what it's actually

competing against and we can see that

the market that it's going after the

market it's competing in is value itself

okay so it's not it is a new technology

but it's not Visa it's not MasterCard

it's not Facebook it's competing against

other store value assets such as gold

for Value itself all right hopefully

that makes sense now we also have to

realize that the world has changed a lot

and what's happened is is as the world

has rapidly changed money and our

technology into store of value has not

so we are in the digital Revolution I'm

sure you know that by now you're

watching me over the Internet so of

course you're part of the digital

Revolution what we've seen is that while

the digital revolution has digitized

everything music movies

books videos everything's become

digitized our money hasn't and actually

this cool image all these images were

created by chat gbt pretty interesting

and this shows us how all of these

technologies have become digitized books

movies music Etc and the last thing to

be digitized that hasn't yet it's

happening right now is digitizing value

digitizing wealth that's what we're

doing right now the and it's a monetary

Evolution we have to understand that

every what we use as money today well

gold was money for 5,000 years has been

an evolutionary process and this is the

next step the digitization of value this

is where it's competing that's how big

the market is okay now let me just break

this down to something that you can

understand so we can have something to

build off of okay so as I said gold was

money for 5,000 years right so at the

end of the day we don't want money I

know it's a shocking statement to make I

know you want a lot of money no we don't

want money what we want is the goods and

services that money buys us we want food

we want clothes we want house we want to

travel things like that we want the

goods and services gold or money is what

we use to get those things things and we

can hold our value our wealth our energy

in that money until we're ready to

deploy it to get those goods and servic

that we want so if goods and services

are wealth and money is a way to acquire

it then what we do is we take all the

goods and services of the world the

wealth divided by all the gold that's

the price it's a unit of account

everything is priced in gold or priced

in money so think about this gold was

money it was the store of value for

5,000 years it was the unit of account

everything was priced in it now gold

because of Technology the world started

evolving and we had global trade taking

off globalization but Gold's very slow

if I want to pay from California

somebody in New York with gold it takes

a long time to get that gold there so

what we did is we put the gold in the

banks and the banks then used a ledger

to say Hey you know from California now

the guy in New York now on The Ledger

shows he has the gold the gold didn't

actually move they just changed the

Ledger that was a new piece of

technology all right but that didn't

actually solve anything and so what we

did is we created paper dollars Fiat

money paper dollars that represented the

gold in the bank so we had $1 us was

equal to 20 ounces of gold let me show

you the chart this is the gold price

chart for the last 100 years so what we

can see since the 1800s $1 $1 us equal

20 I'm sorry $2 equal 1 ooun of gold

then in 1933 I've talked about this

extensively because all the gold went

into the bank the government govern just

took it all They seized it all they

don't want to say They seized it they

they bought it from you forcibly then

what they did is they revalued it to now

be

$35 for 1 ounce of gold you can see that

20 and then it was 35 this whole time

now this red line here is where we ended

the gold standard and we no longer had

relation to the price of gold but the

reason why I want you to understand this

for right now is because at this time

all the dollars in existence were

divided by all the

gold and it was $20 for every 1 oce and

then it was $35 cuz they printed way too

many of them that's why they had to

seize the gold then they took then it

was $35 for every 1 ounce of gold you're

understanding this but again in 1971 we

left the gold standard and you can see

by this chart right here is where we

left now what I did is I took a a trend

line and you can see the trend line we

were on and if we hadn't left the gold

standard here we would have about this

much money in circulation today this is

the M2 chart this shows how much dollars

are in circulation okay so we would have

about this much but of course they would

have needed to get more gold but then

1971 we got a new trend line and that

took us to here right around here in the

year 2000 we got a new trend line that

takes us to here

2008 we got a new trend line that takes

us to here in 2020 we have a new trend

line and look at that Trend that we're

on here's the problem

they've added more of those paper

currencies but they didn't add more gold

because of course we're no longer on a

gold

system which is why you can see this

right here all right but you have to

understand this to understand where

we're going we had all the dollars in

existence divided by all the gold and

that's gone but that's the way it works

and we have to go back to it we are in a

52 we're in about a 52-year experiment

that's gone horribly wrong I'll show you

how it's gone horribly wrong in a minute

okay so now that you understand that you

hear a lot of people talking about maybe

going back to the gold standard the rise

of bricks bricks are going to launch

their own goldback currency you've heard

me talk about that extensively you have

Jim Rickards and Peter Schiff talking

about we're going to go back to gold and

the reason why is because gold was money

for 5,000 years for 50 years we've tried

this little Fiat experiment it's it's

failed horribly wrong and so the only

way that governments will get trust back

into fiat currency is to back it with

something like gold again you've heard

that many times so this is how this

would work let me break it down in the

United States there's about2 trillion of

currency of paper of fiat currency 20

trillion the US supposedly I don't know

if I believe this holds 8,000 tons of

gold so then what you would do is you

would take the uh 8,000 tons is 282

million ounces so you take the 20

trillion divided by the 282 million

ounces and that would give you a new

gold price of

$70,000 per ounce of gold at the $20 per

ounce of gold up until 1933 the 35 up

until 1971 that's how it worked and to

go back to a gold standard 100% backed

this would be the new math that's why

gold bugs want this to go back to a gold

standard and they want to hold gold

because they think their $2,000 an ounce

gold will go to 70,000 an ounce be

pretty amazing if that happened although

Bitcoin is going to do better I'll break

the math down now we also have to think

globally all right because this is not

just the US the US dollar is the global

Reserve currency we also have the euro

dollar going on so we have to think

globally so if we think globally there's

about $87 trillion globally and about we

don't really know cuz China doesn't

really report it properly but

approximately

187,000 tons of gold in the whole world

all the gold in the world that's ever

been brought above ground is still above

ground it's not really a consumable good

I think all the gold in the world fits

in like a football field it's not even

that much 187,000 tons which is 6

billion ounces so we take the 87

trillion of currency divided by the 6

billion ounces would give us about a

$113,000 price per gold does that make

sense okay so now that we've gone

through that math you're ready to

understand the next step in the process

okay so you remember we've made a couple

cases here gold was what we used to

measure or Price things in wealth is

goods and services not gold wealth is

the goods and services the gold is what

it was priced in and so we had to divide

the goods and services by the wealth by

the gold all right so now what other

Global assets are there how do we

measure how much goods and services are

out there how much wealth is out there

well there's a couple ways we can look

at this all of these Global assets are

well we're looking at the global assets

right now for this this math in store of

value assets there's lots of assets but

we don't store our wealth in all types

of assets so just for this exercise

being conservative I know this sounds

crazy we're only looking at what we call

store value assets things that you would

put your money into such as gold is a

store of value Asset real estate sure I

have a house there but I park my wealth

in real estate as well bonds stocks

things like that okay so if we look at

that here's a chart from Jesse crasis uh

he he did a amazing write up on this

we're going to link to it in the

description down below if you want to

read his write up and breakdown of this

but we have store of value assets right

here gold uh cars other Collectibles so

rich people buy really old collectible

cars things like that they store their

wealth in there one of my buddies down

the streets got a couple Mustangs that

are worth millions of dollars pretty

cool it doesn't drive them Fine Art of

course stock market right we buy stock

to put our wealth in there real estate

like I said not just your home but other

real estate that you invest to bonds and

of course money if we add those up we

have 122 trillion in Gold 6 trillion in

Collectibles 18 trillion in Fine Art 115

uh trillion and you do the math it

totals $900 trillion if we add all that

up now again back to the Uber example

Uber is going to disrupt taxes limos

Vans what percentage do we think it can

get from each of those markets so

conservatively do we think Bitcoin could

capture 50% of the gold market cap I

think so Goldman Sachs says it's going

to overtake it so 50% that puts Bitcoin

at 6 trillion cars other Collectibles uh

it's not going to take the whole thing

people like cars people like

Collectibles people like Fine Art but

could it take 5% I think that's

reasonable uh Fine Art 5% sure stock

market 15% I think reasonable real

estate 15% okay bonds 30% money 30% that

brings us to $200

trillion just at those levels and this

could happen over the next 5 6 7 years

all right so I'll get more to the time

frame we'll break this math down a

little bit more but that would put one

Bitcoin to $10 million it's a big number

$10 million just for getting these

pieces now we're not even adding all the

other use cases the money exchanging

we're not including all the Technologies

being built on bitcoin we're just

talking about store of value assets only

all right so you can see that math now

let's keep going here now remember

there's no such thing as certainties

there's only probabilities so is this a

probable outcome well what we do know

it's pretty much certain 99% certain

that Fiat is dead Fiat is crashing Fiat

was an experiment we're 52 years into

this experiment 5,000 years of using

sound money 52 years of Fiat and it's

dead it's over there's pretty much no

way I can continue from here like I said

you're going to have to figure out a way

to bring some um trust back into the

system so what options do we have well I

did a video a couple months ago in

Amsterdam or I gave a talk at a

conference in Amsterdam a couple months

ago let's go ahead and just play this

clip so you can hear it we can see the

system is Shifting if you're paying

attention they're buying gold the

problem is it already failed before we

live in a information world today we

need money to transfer at the speed of

our transactions over the internet and

gold can't do that gold requires trust

since gold can't transfer immediately it

requires someone to hold a ledger and if

someone's holding The Ledger we must

trust that person but trust his loss so

if that doesn't work if we don't go back

to Commodities where do we go well the

next solution is Central Bank digital

currencies cuz that should fix

everything right the cbdcs seem to be

the next logical step but the problem is

I would call this not de Evolution I'd

call it zero Revolution because it's

basically the exact same thing that we

have right

now it still allows the central banks to

print unlimited amounts of money so if

we have a problem of endless money

printing then we need to fix it we need

a solution that has a fixed Supply

doesn't allow anybody to have in this

money Printing and in a multi-polar

world where there we're no longer in the

current monetary order or the current

International order that we have today a

US Le order with a US dollar Reserve

currency in a paper Fiat monetary system

moving to a multi-polar

world how does the world move forward

when there is no trust in a world where

trust is gone it's almost like we need a

decentralized ledger that's trustless

and so in this new world order that

we're going into the question is left if

not Bitcoin then what all right so you

can hear from there like the options are

one we go back to Gold but gold already

failed because it's old technology we

live in a world of instant transactions

and we need instant settlement but gold

can never do that without adding debt

and adding trust in the system which

there is no trust in the system anymore

so gold doesn't work the other option is

well a cbdc but that's basically still

Fiat and the problem is the unlimited

money printing in the debt so that

doesn't fix it either so as I put in the

question at the end of that presentation

if not Bitcoin then what so it's not

guaranteed but is it at least probable

do you think there's a 20% chance that

people move to it I mean we're certainly

seeing that happen now is there a 30 40

50% chance we'll come back to that in a

second but let's take a look at this

let's look at some of the time frames

has happening on now remember I said

this is an evolutionary process one of

the biggest problems that people have

with understanding this is they expect

way too much too soon imagine you and I

walking through a forest of redwoods and

we find this little tree like this big

and I'm like oh my gosh look at this

little tree look how cool this is can

you imagine that this tree one day is

going to be as big as these other trees

and you're like oh that's stupid Mark

how that tree will never be that big

look how small it is how could it ever

grow that big and I'm like what but give

it time give it give it a couple decades

like it'll get there right so you have

to understand things take time and

there's an evolutionary path that things

have to go down another image by chat

GPT uh showing this evolutionary path so

what am I talking about let's take a

look at this evolutionary path so

remember as I said money if you study

thousands of years of history of money

rocks feathers seashells gold you

understand it was always a mergent and

it was always an evolution what happens

is it starts right here as a collectible

oh this is a pretty cool rock I think

I'm going to keep it it's a collectible

oh look at this baseball card this

Pokémon card I like this I'll collect it

now there's a lot of things that become

Collectibles but if maybe sometimes they

could evolve to the next stage which

could become a store of value so

baseball cards are stores of value some

people store millions of dollars in

baseball cards Pokemon cards watches not

all collectibles make the evolution to

store value but a lot do now if maybe if

they have the right attributes of money

portable divisible durable recognizable

things like that then maybe it could

evolve to the next stage from a from a

store value to a medium of exchange okay

so now it's big enough it's a big enough

asset class it's widely accepted it has

the right attri rut like I said and now

people use it as medium exchange and

then maybe if potentially if it if it

could we could evolve to the next stage

which is a unit of account which means

everything's priced in that thing now

right now everything's priced in dollars

oil is priced in dollars Gold's priced

in dollars most of the World prices

things in dollars because it is the

currency of the world now some countries

have other currencies but you get my

point you're still pricing it in that

currency so this is the evolutionary

path I think we are somewhere right

around here we've already checked all

these boxes and we have a little bit

ways to go now what time frame are we

looking at all right I showed you the

path what is the time frame now that

evolutionary path doesn't mean it's

guaranteed remember life is about

probabilities but we can continue to

watch that now over what time frame now

when you look back through technological

revolutions you realize they happen

about every 50 years you've heard me

talk extensively about technology Cycles

so this is a path um this is where

Bitcoin started right here and we are

sitting somewhere right about here right

now we're in this path you're not too

late we still have all this to go right

here before we start to level out and I

think we really see all this happen by

about 2050 so I don't know where you're

at in your stage of life right now you

could be alive to see this happen now

none of this is

guaranteed but this is the most probable

outcome going back to Old technology of

gold or what that's the question and you

can see we're rapidly heading for this

now we're literally living through this

we're literally watching this revolution

we're watching this financial Revolution

cycle end right in front of us okay

great so now you understand what it's

attacking uh value itself you understand

uh that's evolutionary path and what

that process looks like you understand

the time frame now let's talk about the

prices now I talked about 43 billion you

know in 50 60 years from now but where

is it in a year from now or four or five

years from now or seven or eight years

from now let's talk about that for now

all right so howf was one of the main

developers that developed Bitcoin he

worked with Satoshi Nakamoto which yes

nobody knows who he is but we know lots

of the other developers that worked on

it with Satoshi including halin Adam

back nck Zabo Etc so halin was a

developer now back in 2009 when it was

released we just got a whole bunch of uh

satoshi's emails released to the public

we can see this was January 10th 2009

and he said here announcing the first

release of Bitcoin pretty cool but we

can see through those emails I sort of

summarized it here so you can see it

easier how finny predicted um $22

million Bitcoin this was back in 2009

when it was first released he said not

based on mere speculation but rather on

a thoughtful analysis of bitcoin's

potential as a global payment system so

he's backing into the math sort of the

same way I am the collective value of

Bitcoin would align with the total

wealth of the world wealth of the world

divided by the asset unit of account

which he estimated to be within the

range of1 trillion to $300 trillion that

was in 2009 today it's about $900

trillion by dividing this value Among

The Limited supply of 21 million Bitcoin

finny came up with a 22 um million price

per Bitcoin that was in 2009 when it was

first invented you could have picked it

up for a couple of pennies but he saw

that Vision that we're rapidly heading

towards what about uh let's hear from

chamath chamath is a prolific investor

on in Silicon Valley early early early

into Facebook billionaire let's hear

what he had to say Bitcoin that falls

into that category because that's what

that is

39,000 uh where's it going I mean can

you play the clip in 2012 and 13 when it

was at 200 and everybody was laughing at

me on CNBC every time I would talk about

Bitcoin um where is it going it's

probably going to 100 than 150 than

200,000 in what period I don't know five

years 10 years but it's going there and

the reason is because every time you see

all of this stuff happening it just

reminds you that wow our leaders are not

as trustworthy and reliable as they used

to be and so just in case we really do

need to have some kind of you know

insurance we can keep under our pillow

that gives us some access to an

uncorrelated hedge all right now mind

you this video is from 2021 so he's

talking about it going to 100 150 all

the way up to a million dollar which is

certainly doing he says a million dollar

by 2040 that's the time frame he's on um

what else we have we have Fidelity

Fidelity is I think the second largest

asset manager in the US they do a lot of

research on bitcoin it's the second

largest Bitcoin ETF they predict a

billion dollars for one Bitcoin by 2038

2038 the director of global macro

Fidelity Investments thinks a single

Bitcoin could reach 1 billion by the

year

2038 a lot of what he's done is rooted

in and he's come up this from a bunch of

angles specifically he says it's rooted

in meta's law which is that a network

continues to grow faster and faster and

faster becomes more valuable and he says

it'll grow to about 1 million per

Bitcoin by 2030 so 1 million by 2030 1

billion by

2038 based off of that now fidell like I

said they put out a ton of good research

and data on this one of which is this

meta's law and you can see how this

price Arc is working it doesn't go up

hyperbolically forever right it doesn't

go up straight line it starts to taper

off but yet it still goes up we have a

million doll Bitcoin you know right

about here and you can see that they

have this other chart right here that I

think is really good Fidelity put

together you can get all this

information directly off of their

website um but this shows the different

analoges so this is the price the

Bitcoin price Arc right here and I know

for the Bitcoin Skeptics I know it

crashes right so it goes super high and

then it crashes all the way back down

and then it it stays below the trend

line and then it goes Super super high

and then it crashes all the way down

again and it stays below the trend line

it crashes it goes super high and it

crashes all the way down now some people

go well why do wouldn't I just sell here

and buy right here sure you can

certainly try that or you could just

wait and sit and go along for the ride

now what about me where do I think it's

going to go well I think a million

dollars by 2030 seems pretty realistic

to me we'll see again in the world of

possibilities and probabilities I think

it's highly probable we'll get there

it's certainly not guaranteed which is

why I don't put 100 % of my money in

we'll come back to that in a minute but

I think in the next 18 months1 to

$150,000 Bitcoin is kind of what I'm

thinking that's a 2 to 3x return from

here I don't know of any other asset I

can put my money into right now today

that can get me that type of return so

that's kind of what I'm thinking all

right so now that you have this

information what are you going to do

with it what do you do well in the fir

in in the famous words of Satoshi

Nakamoto he said that it might make

sense to get some just in case case it

catches on so back to the world of

probabilities all right just like that

show I told you I was watching

everything's a probability so do you

think that there is a 50% chance that

Bitcoin gets to $150,000 in the next two

years okay and it's 50,000 today that's

a 2X upside with a 1x downside it's

pretty good odds you have 50% conviction

of that how much money should put in

maybe put in 50% hold the other 50% you

can average in so you can you can buy it

you should secure it and hold it and you

can either lump some in you can put that

money in or you can dollar cost average

in over time so buy it that's the first

thing do you have some do you have

enough how much should you have it bit

Depends off your conviction now what

we're seeing Wall Street with the ETFs

they're putting 2 to 5% allocations in

you put 2 5% allocation in even if it

drops by 50% it's barely even going to

be noticed however if it goes to where

we think it can then your portfolio is

going to be looking pretty dang good now

if you're crazy and you have a lot of

conviction like I do you might want 30

40 50 60% allocation to Bitcoin now it

also depends on how much money you have

so there's other factors you need to

figure that out for yourself buy it then

you need to secure it and hold it the

Revolutionary feature of Bitcoin is that

I can custody it and secure it and store

it myself and so you should certainly do

that I recommend using a hardware wallet

to do that plenty of help online um

check that out go to BTC sessions on

YouTube he can show you how to do that

and then again like I said should I buy

it now just throw throw my cash in as a

lump suum or should I average in over

time it depends on where your conviction

is but this video has gone long that's

about as much as I can put into it right

now but I'll make more videos let me

know which of these you want me to dig

into more drop those down below now if

you really want to know more about the

probability of will we really go to this

type of a Bitcoin standard or will we go

to another option like a central bank

digital currency using what the brand

new project inridge is then you might

want to watch this video that I did

right here otherwise let me know what

you think leave me a comment down below

hit the Thumbs Up Button if you like it

if you don't thumbs down that's okay at

least tell me why in the comments down

below subscribe if you're not subscribed

and that's what I got to your success

I'm out