What the news won't tell you about climate change | Hannah Ritchie, PhD

Summary

In this insightful script, Hannah Ritchie, a researcher at the University of Oxford and deputy editor of Our World in Data, challenges the pessimism surrounding climate change. She presents data showing humanity's past success in solving environmental issues, highlighting four key areas—energy, transport, food, and construction—where focused efforts can combat climate change. Ritchie emphasizes the importance of transitioning to low-carbon energy sources, the potential of electric vehicles, improving food system productivity, and innovative approaches to materials like cement. She concludes with an 'urgent optimism,' asserting that with the right policies and technologies, we can decouple human progress from environmental degradation.

Takeaways

• 🌍 Many people feel overwhelmed by environmental issues like climate change, but historical data shows humans have solved major problems before.
• 🔬 Hannah Ritchie, a researcher at the University of Oxford, emphasizes that by analyzing data, we can see that we are capable of developing solutions to today's environmental challenges.
• 🚫 The main driver of climate change is human emissions of greenhouse gases, which come from various sources including energy, transport, food, and construction.
• 🌞 Transitioning to low carbon energy sources like solar, wind, hydropower, geothermal, and nuclear is crucial, and it's possible with minimal land use impact.
• 🏞️ Land use for renewable energy is significantly less than commonly perceived; solar could meet global demand with less than 1% of the world's land.
• ⚙️ Nuclear energy is highlighted as a very land-efficient option, potentially powering the world on less than 0.1% of the world's land.
• 📈 Known reserves of minerals needed for decarbonization are sufficient and tend to increase over time, contrary to some concerns about scarcity.
• 💰 The cost of renewable energy sources like solar and wind has decreased rapidly, making them cost-competitive with fossil fuels today.
• 🚗 Reducing transport emissions can be achieved through various means including driving less, using public transport, and the adoption of electric vehicles.
• 🥦 The food sector contributes significantly to emissions, with solutions including increasing productivity, dietary changes towards plant-based foods, and reducing food waste.
• 🏭 Construction and manufacturing emissions can be reduced by using energy more efficiently, capturing CO2 emissions in processes like cement production, and innovating with alternative materials.

Q & A

Why do many people feel doomed about the state of the planet?

Many people feel doomed about the state of the planet due to the overwhelming challenges of climate change, which seem insurmountable. The constant negative news coverage exacerbates this feeling, making it difficult to see how these problems can be tackled.

How can looking at historical data help in understanding environmental issues?

Looking at historical data can provide examples of significant environmental problems that humanity has successfully solved in the past. This perspective helps to show that humans are capable of addressing and overcoming large-scale challenges.

What are the four key areas that need to be targeted to solve climate change?

The four key areas that need to be targeted to solve climate change are energy, transport, food, and construction. These sectors are the primary sources of greenhouse gas emissions and require significant transformation to achieve sustainability.

Why are some people concerned about the land use implications of renewable energy?

Some people are concerned about the land use implications of renewable energy because they imagine that solar panels and wind farms will take up vast amounts of land, transforming landscapes. However, the actual land required for renewables is relatively small compared to the world's total land area.

How does the land use of nuclear energy compare to other energy sources?

Nuclear energy requires significantly less land compared to other energy sources. It could feasibly power the world using less than 0.1% of the world's land, making it the best option for minimizing land use.

Why is the transition to low-carbon energy sources considered cost-competitive today?

The transition to low-carbon energy sources is considered cost-competitive today because the costs of solar and wind energy have dropped significantly over the past decade. These renewable energy sources are now as cheap or cheaper than coal or gas, making the transition economically viable.

What is the environmental impact of electric cars compared to petrol or diesel cars?

Electric cars have a higher initial environmental impact due to the energy required to produce their batteries. However, this impact is quickly offset after about two years of driving, resulting in a significant reduction in CO2 emissions over the car's lifetime compared to petrol or diesel cars.

What are the three key ways to reduce emissions from food production?

The three key ways to reduce emissions from food production are increasing agricultural productivity to get higher yields per hectare, making dietary changes to reduce consumption of high-emission foods like meat and dairy, and reducing food waste to minimize emissions from producing unused food.

What are the challenges in decarbonizing cement production?

The challenges in decarbonizing cement production include the direct CO2 emissions produced during the process of converting limestone into cement. Solutions include using less cement, capturing and storing CO2 emissions, and exploring alternative materials like calcium silicate that do not produce CO2.

What does the speaker mean by being an 'urgent optimist'?

Being an 'urgent optimist' means recognizing that while the future can be better, it will only improve if proactive steps are taken. It involves being hopeful about the potential for positive change but also acknowledging the urgency of addressing current challenges.

Outlines

00:00

🌏 Overcoming Pessimism on Climate Change

The script begins with a discussion on the widespread feeling of doom regarding the state of the planet due to climate change. However, the speaker, Hannah Ritchie, a researcher at the University of Oxford and deputy editor of Our World in Data, argues that by examining historical data, we can see that humanity has successfully tackled significant environmental challenges in the past. She emphasizes that despite the urgency of current issues, solutions are being developed and that these challenges are solvable. Ritchie identifies the main drivers of climate change as human emissions of greenhouse gases and outlines four key areas to target for climate change mitigation: energy, transport, food, and construction. She discusses the transition to low-carbon energy sources like solar, wind, hydropower, geothermal, and nuclear, addressing concerns about land use and the availability of minerals needed for this transition. Ritchie highlights the cost-competitiveness of renewable energy sources and the importance of this transition for economic and environmental sustainability.

05:01

🚗 Decarbonizing Transport and Other Sectors

This paragraph delves into the topic of transport emissions, which account for about a fifth of CO2 emissions, primarily from road vehicles. Ritchie suggests reducing transport emissions by driving less and adopting alternative modes of transport, while also acknowledging the need to decarbonize cars. She explains that electric cars, despite having higher initial embedded emissions due to battery production, quickly offset this 'carbon debt' and result in significant CO2 emission reductions over their lifetime. The script also touches on the global peak in sales of petrol and diesel cars and the shift towards electric vehicles. Moving on to food, which contributes a quarter of global emissions, Ritchie discusses the impact of land use, particularly farming, and the emissions of greenhouse gases like methane and nitrous oxide. She outlines strategies to reduce food emissions, including increasing productivity, dietary changes towards plant-based foods, and reducing food waste. Lastly, the script addresses construction and manufacturing emissions, focusing on the production of cement and ways to reduce its carbon footprint, such as using less cement, capturing CO2 emissions, and exploring alternative materials.

10:02

🛠️ Technological and Institutional Solutions for Climate Change

The final paragraph reflects on the historical conflict between human progress and environmental impact, suggesting that we now have the unique opportunity to decouple these two aspects. Ritchie, positioning herself as an 'urgent optimist', differentiates herself from complacent or naive optimism, stressing that a better future is not guaranteed but must be actively pursued. She highlights the role of technology in enabling human well-being without compromising the environment and mentions the importance of institutions and policies in driving this change. Ritchie also points to the educated and informed individuals committed to addressing climate issues. The paragraph concludes with a transition to a sponsorship message about Skillshare, an online learning community, and the speaker's personal experience in enhancing animation skills, which is tangentially related to the data visualization discussed earlier in the script.

Keywords

💡Climate Change

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns, primarily caused by human activities such as the emission of greenhouse gases. In the video, it is the central problem that the speaker discusses, emphasizing that while it is a significant challenge, historical data shows that humanity has the capacity to solve such large-scale environmental issues.

💡Greenhouse Gases

Greenhouse gases are gases in the atmosphere that trap heat, contributing to the greenhouse effect and global warming. The script mentions these gases as the main driver of climate change, highlighting the need to reduce human emissions from various sources to mitigate climate change.

💡Renewable Energy

Renewable energy comes from natural resources that are constantly replenished, such as sunlight, wind, and water. The video discusses the transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources like solar, wind, hydropower, geothermal, and nuclear as a key solution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

💡Land Use

Land use refers to the management and utilization of land resources. The script addresses concerns about the potential land use implications of renewable energy sources, such as solar panels and wind farms, but clarifies that these technologies can be implemented with minimal impact on the overall land area.

💡Nuclear Energy

Nuclear energy is produced through nuclear fission or fusion processes. The video suggests nuclear energy as an efficient option for power generation that requires minimal land use and has the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

💡Decarbonization

Decarbonization is the process of reducing the amount of carbon dioxide emissions produced by burning fossil fuels. The script discusses decarbonizing various sectors, such as energy and transportation, as a critical strategy for combating climate change.

💡Electric Vehicles (EVs)

Electric vehicles are vehicles powered by electric motors and batteries instead of internal combustion engines. The video explains the benefits of EVs in reducing transport emissions and clarifies misconceptions about their initial carbon footprint compared to traditional cars.

💡Food System

The food system encompasses the processes and infrastructure involved in feeding a population, from production to consumption. The script identifies the food system as a significant source of global emissions and discusses ways to make it more sustainable, including increasing productivity, dietary changes, and reducing food waste.

💡Cement

Cement is a binder used in construction that hardens when mixed with water. The production of cement is highlighted in the script as a major source of CO2 emissions. The video explores innovative methods to reduce emissions in cement production, such as using alternative materials or capturing CO2 byproducts.

💡Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

Carbon capture and storage is a technology that captures carbon dioxide emissions from industrial processes and stores them underground to prevent their release into the atmosphere. The script mentions CCS as a potential solution for reducing emissions in industries like cement production.

💡Urgent Optimism

Urgent optimism is a mindset that balances the recognition of pressing challenges with a belief in the possibility of positive change through proactive measures. The speaker identifies as an 'urgent optimist,' framing the discussion around climate change solutions as both necessary and achievable.

Highlights

Many people feel overwhelmed by the state of the planet due to climate change, but historical data shows we have solved big environmental problems before.

Hannah Ritchie, a researcher at the University of Oxford and deputy editor of Our World in Data, discusses the solvable challenges of climate change.

The main driver of climate change is human emissions of greenhouse gases, which come from various sources including energy, transport, food, and construction.

Transitioning to low carbon energy sources like solar, wind, hydropower, geothermal, and nuclear is key to transforming our energy system.

Concerns about land use for renewable energy are often exaggerated; solar and wind power require minimal land.

Nuclear power could feasibly power the world on less than 0.1% of the world's land.

Known reserves of minerals needed for decarbonization are sufficient and tend to increase over time.

The environmental impact of mining for renewable infrastructure is less alarming when compared to the scale of fossil fuel extraction.

Cost competitiveness of alternative energy sources like solar and wind has improved, making them economically viable compared to fossil fuels.

Transport emissions can be reduced by driving less, using public transport, and decarbonizing cars, including the benefits of electric vehicles.

Electric cars have higher initial embedded emissions but quickly offset this with lower CO2 emissions over their lifetime.

Global sales of petrol and diesel cars have peaked and are now declining, with growth coming from electric vehicles.

Food contributes a quarter of global emissions, with land use for farming being a significant factor.

Increasing productivity in food systems, dietary changes towards plant-based foods, and reducing food waste are key to reducing emissions from food.

Construction and manufacturing emissions can be reduced by using energy efficiently, capturing CO2 in cement production, and innovating with alternative materials.

Innovations in cement production, such as using calcium silicate, can decarbonize the process without producing CO2.

Hannah Ritchie frames herself as an 'urgent optimist', believing in the necessity and opportunity to make the future better through action.

Human progress and environmental impact are no longer in conflict due to technologies that decouple well-being from environmental harm.

Skillshare is promoted as a platform for learning new skills, including animation and design, with a special offer for Big Think viewers.

Transcripts

- I think many people today feel doomed

about the state of the planet.

They see climate change

and they think, 'These problems are insurmountable

and we just won't be able to solve them.'

Now, I've previously been in the same position.

I just couldn't see how we would possibly be able

to tackle these problems.

Actually, by stepping back to look at the data

and looking at how the world has changed over centuries,

you can actually find examples

of really big environmental problems

that we've already solved.

So it's not like humans aren't capable of solving problems,

we are, and you can only see that

when you switch off the news,

and step back to look at the data.

You can see that while we face really,

really big urgent problems, we are developing the solutions

and these challenges are solvable.

My name is Hannah Ritchie.

I'm a researcher at the University of Oxford,

and I'm deputy editor of Our World in Data.

The main driver of climate change today are human emissions

of greenhouse gases.

Now, these come from a range of sources.

I think there's four key areas that we need to target

in order to solve climate change:

energy, transport, food, and construction.

So what's really key to transforming our energy system is

that we need to move away from fossil fuels

to low carbon sources of energy, such as solar, wind,

hydropower, geothermal, and nuclear.

But many people are quite rightly concerned

about the potential implications for land use

by moving to renewables.

They picture fields filled and full of solar panels

and all of our landscapes transformed into wind farms.

Actually, when you run the numbers,

they tell a slightly different story.

When we look at how much solar we would need to meet demand

for the world's electricity today,

we could actually produce that

on less than 1% of the world's land.

For wind, you're probably talking 5%,

but the direct impact

of actually putting a wind turbine

in the ground is very, very small,

much, much less than 1% of the world's land.

And you can actually use the land between wind turbines

for uses such as farming.

Now, if you wanted to spare as much of the world's land

as possible, your best option would be nuclear.

You could feasibly power the world on less than 0.1%

of the world's land.

And many people are concerned

that we might not have enough lithium and copper

and a range of other minerals

to decarbonize our electricity grids.

But actually, when you look at the data,

it's very clear that we do.

I think what's also key to highlight there is

that these numbers are never static.

Our known reserves tend to increase over time, not decrease.

I think the other concern

that people have is the sheer environmental impact

of all the stuff that we'll have to mine out of the Earth,

and we will need to mine a lot.

We probably need to mine ten to hundreds of millions of tons

of different minerals to build all

of the infrastructure that we need.

Now, at first glance, that sounds really alarming-

ten to hundreds of millions of tons.

But contrast that with what we're currently doing

with fossil fuels,

where we're digging out 15 billion tons every single year.

What's really, really key about this transition

to low carbon sources of energy is that the alternatives

to fossil fuels need to be cost competitive.

We will not make progress on this problem if solar, wind,

or nuclear are more expensive than coal or gas.

But there's some good news here.

Solar and wind were among the most expensive energy sources

that we had.

Over the last decade or so,

we've seen really rapid reductions in their costs

such that they're now cost-competitive

or even cheaper than coal or gas.

That means that making this transition is not just

about economic gains in the long term,

when we factor in the impacts of climate change,

it's already cost-competitive

and economic to make this transition today.

So we're around a fifth

of our CO2 emissions come from transport.

Now, most of that comes from cars and trucks on the roads,

and the rest comes from rail, shipping, and aviation.

I think the most obvious way

to reduce our transport emissions is just to drive less,

to walk or to cycle, or to use public transport.

But I think we should also acknowledge that we won't be able

to get rid of cars completely,

but we can start to decarbonize cars as well.

You know, the question I always get is:

So in the U.K. for example,

the electric car

will initially have higher embedded emissions

than a petrol or diesel car.

That's because it does take more energy

to produce the battery.

But once you start driving the car,

this very, very quickly pays off.

After just two years of driving,

the average driver will have paid off the carbon debt

of manufacturing the car in the first place.

And from then on,

you just get really rapid reductions in the CO2 emissions

compared to a petrol or diesel car.

So over the lifetime of the car,

you're probably talking about a reduction

of around half to two-thirds

compared to a petrol or diesel car.

But what's really key about this is

that your electric car will get cleaner

and cleaner over time.

That's 'cause we'll also be

decarbonizing our electricity systems

as we move over the next decade.

Now, many people might think

that this transition is impossible

because we just keep seeing more and more

and more petrol cars on the road.

But actually, the world has already passed the peak

of global sales of petrol and diesel cars.

They peaked in 2018 and they are now falling.

All of the growth in the car sector is now coming

from electric vehicles.

So around a quarter of our global emissions come from food,

and that comes from various sources.

One of the key ones is land use change.

We often imagine that our impact on land use

in the world is very much about urban landscapes

and roads and infrastructure-

but this actually makes up less than 1%

of the world's land use.

In contrast, our biggest footprint

in terms of land use is farming.

We use almost half of the world's habitable land

for farming, and here some

of these key emissions are actually not carbon dioxide,

but other greenhouse gases such as methane

and nitrous oxide.

There are probably three key ways

that we can reduce emissions from foods:

One is to make our food systems much more productive,

to get much higher yields per hectare of land.

I think the second key one there is dietary change.

I mean, look at the carbon footprint of different foods.

What we tend to see is that meat

and dairy has a much higher carbon footprint

than plant-based foods.

I think the final one is just simply wasting less food.

The problem with food waste is not necessarily the emissions

when it goes to landfill;

it's all of the emissions

that's come from producing the foods

that then isn't going actually into people's mouths

at the end of the chain.

The final source of emissions is construction

and manufacturing.

There's a couple of components to

where these emissions come from:

One is just using energy to produce the stuff,

and we know how to decarbonize that.

But for some key materials, they're more direct emissions.

Take the example of cement:

So how we produce cement is that we take limestone,

we turn it up at very, very high temperatures,

but as a byproduct, we also produce CO2.

So what we really need to do is get rid

of that CO2 byproduct from this process.

Now, there are a couple of key ways

that we can reduce emissions from cement.

One is actually to just use less cement.

Now, that doesn't necessarily

mean using less building materials,

but we can use a lower grade

or a lower composition of cement in our final product

that we then use to produce buildings.

I think the second key one that we can do is we can capture

that carbon dioxide at the end of the process.

We can then either actually put it back into the cement

where it can potentially make it stronger,

or we can capture it

and store it safely underground

so it doesn't escape into the atmosphere.

The final way, which some companies are innovating on,

is not using limestone as the source rock

in the first place.

They're experimenting with sources such as calcium silicate,

which will give you the same cement,

the same product that we need,

because there's no carbon in there,

you won't get the CO2 at the end of the chain.

So we have a couple

of key solutions which might come online in the next decade

in order to decarbonize cement.

Although we might be able to do this feasibly

from a technical perspective, what's really, really key is

that we drive the cost down

such that they're no more expensive

than what we already have.

So these are four key areas that we need to target

in order to solve climate change.

I like to frame myself as an 'urgent optimist.'

Now, this is different from a 'complacent optimist'

or a 'stupid optimist,' which is someone that just assumes

that the future will be better than it is today.

No, it won't.

It will only be better if we make it better.

If you look at the evolution of human history,

human progress was often very much in conflict

with environmental impact.

The more that humans progressed,

the more the environment degraded.

I think we're in this really unique position

where I think these two things are no longer in conflict

because we have technologies

that decouple our human well-being

with our environmental impact.

We have institutions that can put policies around this

to drive this further.

And we have more intelligent, educated humans than ever

who are really, really serious

about working on these problems.

It's not inevitable that we do this,

but I think it's important that we can see

that there's an opportunity there

and it's really up for us to grab it and to make it happen.

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