Fundamentals Don't Matter...Why Sentiment & Positioning are Everything (Stock Market Wizard Secrets)
Summary
TLDRJason Shapiro 在视频中讨论了市场运作和反应,特别关注了过去两周股市的表现。他指出,市场普遍看空,尤其是纳斯达克指数,但市场却出现了反弹。他强调了交易者持仓报告的重要性,认为市场情绪和持仓位置比基本面更重要,因为市场已经对基本面做出了反应。他还提到了等待市场确认的重要性,并以天然气、金属和橙汁市场为例,展示了如何根据市场情绪和持仓位置进行交易决策。
Takeaways
- 📈 过去一周或两周的股市,尤其是纳斯达克指数,经历了显著的反弹,这与市场普遍看空的情绪相反。
- 📊 交易者报告(Commitment of Traders report)显示,纳斯达克的投机者非常看空,而商业持仓者则相对看多,这与市场最终上涨的趋势一致。
- 🤔 市场分析师Jason Shapiro认为,市场情绪和持仓位置比基本面更重要,因为每个人都在关注基本面,所以这些信息已经被市场消化。
- 📉 尽管美联储的表态可能被解读为鸽派,但Shapiro认为,市场在美联储会议前已经非常看空,因此任何消息都可能被视为利好。
- 🔄 纳斯达克的表现与其他市场如道琼斯指数不同,后者在同期几乎没有变动,显示市场分化。
- ⛽ 能源和金属市场也出现了与普遍预期相反的走势,尤其是汽油和取暖油价格的大幅下跌,以及黄金和白银的下跌。
- 📊 在交易中,市场情绪和持仓位置是风险回报的关键因素,而不是基本面分析。
- 🚫 Shapiro强调,不要仅仅因为某个分析师或市场情绪而立即做出交易决策,而是要等待市场确认。
- 🍊 例如,尽管有关橙汁减产的消息非常看多,但交易者报告显示投机者过于看多,商业持仓者看空,因此需要市场确认才能进行交易。
- 💡 Shapiro认为,交易的关键在于找到风险回报比有利的交易机会,而不是预测市场的未来走势。
- 📚 他最后指出,尽管有些人可能因为拥有MBA或CFA学位而过分依赖基本面分析,但实际上市场心理和持仓位置才是交易中的关键因素。
Q & A
Jason Shapiro在视频中提到的市场是什么?
-Jason Shapiro在视频中主要讨论了股票市场,特别是纳斯达克(NASDAQ)市场。
为什么Jason认为市场参与者普遍看空?
-Jason提到,他在金融电视和新闻网络上听到的每一个分析师和评论员都表达了看空的观点,这形成了一种普遍的市场情绪。
什么是交易者承诺报告(Commitment of Traders report)?
-交易者承诺报告是一种显示市场参与者持仓情况的报告,它可以帮助分析市场的多空力量对比。
Jason如何使用交易者承诺报告来支持他的市场观点?
-Jason使用交易者承诺报告中的持仓数据来确认市场参与者的多空比例,这与他在电视和新闻上听到的看空情绪相一致。
为什么Jason认为情绪和持仓比基本面更重要?
-Jason认为,因为每个人都在关注基本面,所以基本面已经被市场定价,而情绪和持仓则可以提供市场未被充分考虑的信息。
Jason提到的一个交易者在电视上表达了什么观点?
-一个交易者在电视上表达了对市场上涨的不满,并提到人们可能过于看空,但他也强调了基本面的重要性。
为什么Jason认为美联储在最近的声明中并不是鸽派?
-Jason通过分析美联储的声明和市场的反应,认为市场将美联储的声明解读为鸽派是一种误读,实际上美联储的立场是鹰派。
Jason提到了哪些市场在最近的表现?
-Jason提到了纳斯达克、汽油、取暖油、金属(如黄金和白银)等市场,并讨论了它们的表现和交易者的情绪。
Jason如何解释市场确认(market confirmation)的重要性?
-Jason认为,即使有了看空或看多的分析,也需要市场的实际走势来确认这一观点,这样才能确保交易的风险和回报。
Jason在视频中提到的橙汁市场的情况是什么?
-Jason提到橙汁市场因为佛罗里达州的霜冻和飓风导致产量减少,但交易者承诺报告显示投机者过于看多,而商业交易者则看空。
Jason如何强调市场心理和持仓分析的重要性?
-Jason通过多个市场的例子强调,市场心理和持仓分析可以帮助交易者找到有利的风险回报比,而不是仅仅依赖于基本面分析。
Outlines
📈 市场情绪与头寸分析
Jason Shapiro在拥挤的市场报告中讨论了过去两周股市,尤其是纳斯达克指数的表现。他指出,市场参与者普遍看空,这反映在金融电视和新闻网络上的评论中。他强调了头寸的重要性,特别是通过交易者承诺报告来分析纳斯达克的头寸情况,发现投机者非常看空。他提到,市场情绪和头寸是他交易哲学的核心,而基本面因素因为已经被市场充分定价,所以对他来说并不重要。纳斯达克指数最终上涨,这与市场普遍的悲观情绪相反,也证明了他的交易观点。
📉 能源与金属市场的交易机会
Jason提到了能源和金属市场,他注意到电视上的分析师普遍推荐购买石油和矿业股票,尽管他们对股市整体持悲观态度。通过商品交易者承诺报告(COT),他发现投机者在汽油和取暖油上持有极端的多头头寸,而商业持仓则相反。他利用这些信息进行了交易,等待市场确认后入场,例如黄金在出现反转信号后才进行交易。他强调了市场确认的重要性,并以橙汁市场为例,说明了即使新闻报道非常看多,也需要等待市场出现反转信号后才进行交易。
💡 交易哲学与风险回报
Jason在最后一段中重申了他的交易哲学,即市场情绪和头寸是交易中最重要的因素。他认为,尽管基本面因素被广泛讨论,但它们已经被市场定价,因此对交易决策的影响有限。他比喻说,即使有人连续几次正确预测了硬币的正反面,也不能保证下一次预测的准确性。他强调,交易的目标是找到风险回报比有利的交易机会,而不是预测市场的未来。他还提到,即使市场因为美联储的声明而波动,但这并不改变他的交易策略,即利用市场情绪和头寸来做出交易决策。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡市场定位
💡情绪
💡基本面
💡美联储
💡纳斯达克
💡交易者报告
💡风险回报
💡市场确认
💡期货市场
💡交易策略
💡群体心理
Highlights
Jason Shapiro讨论了市场运作和反应,特别是在过去两周内纳斯达克指数的表现。
市场普遍看空,金融电视和新闻网络每天重复这一观点。
交易者报告(Commitment of Traders)显示投机者相对于历史水平非常看空,而商业持仓者则相对看多。
市场情绪和持仓位置比基本面更重要,因为每个人都在关注基本面,所以市场已经将其计入价格。
纳斯达克指数在看空情绪中上涨,与美联储的政策无关。
市场参与者对美联储的政策解读存在分歧,但市场情绪和持仓位置是关键。
纳斯达克与其他市场(如道琼斯指数)的表现不同,显示出市场分化。
能源和金属市场的交易机会,尤其是在市场普遍看多石油和矿业股票时。
持仓报告显示,汽油和取暖油的投机者持仓与市场表现相反。
黄金和白银市场在看多情绪中出现逆转,显示出市场确认的重要性。
交易策略需要市场确认,不能仅凭新闻或专家意见立即行动。
橙汁市场的例子说明了即使新闻看多,也需要市场确认才能进行交易。
市场风险和回报的评估,强调了市场情绪和持仓位置在交易中的重要性。
即使在连续正确的预测之后,也不能保证下一次预测的准确性。
交易的目标是获得良好的风险回报比,而不是预测市场的未来。
市场参与者常因教育背景而过分强调基本面,而忽视了市场心理和持仓位置。
Jason Shapiro邀请观众加入crowdedmarketreport.com获取更多信息和交流。
Transcripts
foreign
[Music]
2023
I'm Jason Shapiro with crowded
marketreport.com
the past week or two weeks have really
been a laboratory for some of the things
that I try to talk about in terms of how
I feel the market really works and the
market really reacts there's so many
examples and so many talking points I I
hope I don't go off on a tangent here
but I'm gonna go through it a little bit
and we could pick so many markets but
let's start with the stock market okay
the stock market and in particular
NASDAQ in the last two weeks has gone
through a rep and what I've been talking
about on our newsletter and and
everywhere on Twitter and everywhere was
that
people were so short coming in to the
last couple weeks right so bearish and
so short I heard it on the financial TV
and news networks every single day every
single person that came on
said the same thing which is that they
were bearish it was I kept calling it
you know a Bear Parade right and you
know these are people who I have
listened to for a long time and it's one
thing when one of them who I know is a
great fate is bearish that's good
but it's another thing when every single
one of them is bearish right it to me it
just increases the odds so that's what's
been going on and if we look at
positioning which we know is my favorite
thing I mean this is the commitment of
Traders report for the NASDAQ right this
was last Friday this was the Friday
before even the Friday before we were
showing speculators Kevin look how short
they are compared to history look how
long the commercials are compared to
history the market went up
they got even shorter they were selling
into it so the commitments of Trader was
confirming what I was hearing on TV and
that's that's very very powerful this is
positioning and one of my favorite Fades
came on TV and he's been short buying
puts buying put spreads on basically
everything qqqs everything and he was
getting all angry that the market was
going up which is first of all a good
sign that it's going to continue up but
and he said something like you know I
realize that you know people were maybe
bearish coming into the year and I
realized that they were maybe short
coming into the year but
um sentiment and positioning is not
everything fundamentals matter
and I'd love to hear him say that
because in my view as a Trader
sentiment and positioning are everything
okay I had fundamentals don't matter and
the reason that fundamentals don't
matter is because everybody is paying
attention to them so therefore it's
discounted in the market right and that
is seen by the fact that everybody was
short right so the sentiment and
positioning is all that matters
I would argue so here they were with the
NASDAQ and they were super short and you
know we know what the NASDAQ did it went
it went straight up and I know people
want to say things like oh well you know
the FED came in and and was dovish or
whatever right and I'm here to say that
the Fed was not dovish all right the
first thing I was watching in retrospect
after the market went up
commentaries went out and said oh whoa
there was that one question that they
asked the Powell and he said this and
that was much more dovish than you would
have expected but in lifetime okay
um what it said um I'm just reading it
from here on the TV was I saw the
headlines on Bloomberg TV while he it
was going on ongoing rate hikes are
appropriate
delish okay inflation remains elevated
dovish no
positioning short sentiment terrible
yes okay that's what it was you can
blame it on the fed you could blame it
on whatever you want okay
that's what it was all right you're not
going to come out in retrospect and tell
me that the Fed was dovish
the market had gone down you would have
said the fetish hawkish okay
positioning sentiment all right and I
Wonder If the Fed was so dovish then why
was it all NASDAQ driven why didn't the
Dow go up you know that that was
basically flat which by the way if you
were bullish this this last couple weeks
and you were long down
you're pissed off because the Dow's gone
nowhere right where's the NASDAQ you
know obviously
has erect okay one bad decision
a long Dow not long NASDAQ and it's a
whole different game so let's look can
we figure out where that was well this
is the NASDAQ commitment of Traders this
is the NASDAQ positioning
all right
here's where they're super short
and here
is the depth position
a huge bunch more neutral right
the commercials were a little bit longer
here in the middle of December which is
when that was outperforming and then
they came off
and then that way underperformed and
just as an aside here's anike where the
speculators were also super short and lo
and behold here's Anika which is ripped
right
so
sentiment
positioning okay that's where we're
going to get our risk reward there's no
guarantee
but that's where we are going to get our
risk reward all right I could pick so
many markets here it's silly but one of
the things that I was um
saying a lot on Twitter in particular
this last week was I thought that the
NASDAQ
um long versus a short in energies and
and uh Metals was was a great trade
why did I say that again everybody on TV
was saying buy oil stocks everybody on
TV was saying my morning sucks they're
bearish the stock market but
they think oil stocks are good they
think mining stocks are good all right
that's what I heard every day for two
weeks okay and then again let's go to
the cot
was really nowhere but here longest
speculators were gasoline that's the our
Bob chart
in this entire thing right this is the
commercials for heating law okay
shortest commercials work you know okay
they were shorter one time right here
right
and then we look at what
those wonderful markets did this week
okay here's gasoline
right
it's a big move now and particularly you
know in a stock market that's going up
right
here's heating oil right crushed right
metals
here's gold
right
here's silver
Okay so
these are sort of the good things and
again
what you wanted to do if you see this
you don't just do it right away hey this
guy on TV that I think is a fade said
you know would be long oil and be long
gold so I'm gonna fade it you want as I
say many times to wait
for a market confirmation this day in
Gold quite frankly which was Thursday
was the market confirmation you see that
reversal day thing gapped up to a new
high
closed down on the day while risk assets
were going up right while the dollar was
going down
while Bonds were going up
those are all bullish gold things
and yet gold closed down had what they
call an outside reversal they closed
down and then the thing you know lo and
behold the employment report came out
blah blah the thing
got rocked today so that's how you want
to do it so those are kind of Trades
that worked all right not all trades
work so and not all of these things are
set up
not set up but when they're set up
doesn't mean they happen you have to
wait for that market confirmation so
let's look at an example
of that this is one that I have been
I would have to say
bearish on right
because of the commitment of Traders
report right orange juice
now orange juice is like exactly what I
Look to short all right because articles
are coming out every day about orange
juice how the frost and the hurricanes
and you have the smallest orange juice
crop in Florida ever and there's a huge
shortage and and this and that and here
we have the commitments of Traders or
speculators are getting mega long
commercials getting mega short so I am
looking to get short but I'm not going
too short
until there's Market confirmation right
which is some kind of failure some kind
of reversal deck there's the oh it's
juice chart your literally will move
from 200 you know to 240 20 moving a
week getting in the way of that would
have gotten you run over
so you have to wait for the market to
confirm it first okay the news is both
super bullish okay the competitive
Traders is showing that people are too
long you have to wait for Market
confirmation and the combination of
those two things
put you in a good risk reward trade
doesn't guarantee anything but puts you
in a good risk reward position which is
all we are trying to do over time nobody
can predict the future okay I made a
couple good calls the last couple weeks
okay does that mean that my next call is
any good
nobody can predict the future all right
and just because somebody was bullish
and the market went up
if somebody was bearish and the market
went down I mean it's a 50 50 shot if
you line up a thousand people
and have them call heads or tails and
flip a coin at the end of nine flips
there's gonna be one guy standing who
called Nine flips in a row heads or
tails you know what the chances of him
calling heads or tails on the next flip
bar I guarantee you 50 50. all right but
what you want to do on that flip is if
you're gonna bet on it you want to get
paid 60 cents if you're right and 40
cents if you're wrong
and you want to do that as many times as
you can because we know it's going to
come up heads or tails 50 of the time if
you can get paid 60 and lose 40 then
over time you're going to make money
that's what positioning and sentiment
does right I don't know that it
necessarily changes the odds of
something happening but it changes the
payoff of something happening and if you
want to say hey the NASDAQ went up
because the you know
the Federal Reserve was was more dovish
than than you thought then that's fine
okay the point is going into it before
we know what they're going to say
everybody knew that they were going to
be hawkish okay
everybody was embarrassed going into it
all right so it changes the odds if
they're hawkish
maybe the markers down a little bit you
have to let even a little bit less than
luckish which if you want to say they
were you probably then look what happens
the market rips it changes the payout
not the odds and that's what trading is
all about and that's what this markets
are all about all right say it again
sentiment and positioning
the rest quite frankly is just
for people to talk about because they
spend all their money on getting an MBA
and getting a CFA right and they can't
admit that they just spend all that time
and money learning something that
doesn't help them in the market you know
are the fundamentals do they matter I
mean they matter but they're discounted
in because all of these people that got
mbas and cfas are smart and able and
they already know this information
there's nothing there so you've got to
fade the mass
psychology and positioning Okay so I
hope that helps
um I hope I didn't ramble too much but I
just think like I say the last couple
weeks are where the perfect laboratory
for this stuff so uh let me know if you
have any questions or comments and
please join us on crowded market report
where we talk about all this stuff and
we have the charts and
the Discord and it's real fun so um
hopefully we'll see you there and uh I
wish everybody a good week
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