The Deciding Factor, Who'll Break First - Offensive Goals Become Clearer - Ukraine Map & News Update
Summary
TLDRВ видео-скрипте обсуждается текущая военная обстановка на украинско-российском фронте, сосредоточившись на расходах и приобретениях территории, а также на тактиках и возможностях обеих сторон. Рассматриваются случаи использования запрещенных химических веществ, захваты россиянами украинских пленников и обмены пленных. Также затрагивается использование современного военного оборудования, включая танков и бомбардировщиков, а также анализируется геополитическая ситуация и возможные последствия действий обеих сторон.
Takeaways
- 📊 В настоящее время происходит рассмотрение множества ударов, использования различных видов техники и падения самолетов, а также анализ карты в северной, восточной и южной частях для оценки происходящего.
- 🏁 Возникает гонка между Украиной и Россией, связанная с тем, кто сначала будет вынужден распределить свои резервы, чтобы укрепить оборону и остановить продвижение фронта.
- 🚨 В видео от Роба Ли, члены специального подразделения Украины в Нью-Йорке используют к51-средство для управления беспорядками, что вызывает обеспокоенность, так как оно запрещено Конвенцией о химических оружиях.
- 🔍 Существует обсуждение о том, как обстоят дела с обменом пленными, особенно с пограничными охранниками и призывными, которые могут быть обменяны на более опытных бойцов.
- 🎥 Появилось несколько видеозаписей с пленными российскими солдатами, которые сдались украинским силам, что подчеркивает эффективность украинских операций на восточных фронтах.
- 🔥 Украинская армия захватила контроль над некоторыми населенными пунктами и стремится укрепить свои позиции, в то время как российские войска продолжают наступление в других регионах.
- 🚀 Подтверждено уничтожение российской системы 'HIMARS', что является значимым успехом украинских войск и показывает эффективность их действий.
- 🛩️ Есть сообщения о том, что российский генерал-майор Николаич погиб, возможно, в результате катастрофы на Су-35, что подчеркивает риски, связанные с военными действиями.
- 🤔 Существует спекуляции о том, что британский танк 'Чалленджер 2' был использован на фронте в Курской области, что может указывать на более широкую поддержку со стороны Запада.
- 💥 Появилось видео происшествия с российским бомбардировщиком Ту-22М, который потерпел катастрофу из-за технической неисправности, что подчеркивает риски, связанные с использованием старых самолетов.
- 📉 По мере того как операции на фронте замедляются, украинские войска осознают, что их успех начинает уходить, и им необходимо укрепиться на занятом пространстве, особенно перед зимой, когда маневренность снижается.
Q & A
Какой инициативу в Севере Украины держит в настоящее время Украина?
-В Севере Украины инициативу держит Украина, пытаясь удержать преимущество и заставить Россию переместить войска из восточных или южных регионов для укрепления обороны и остановить движение фронта.
Что означает термин 'переdeployment forces' в контексте конфликта?
-Переdeployment forces означает процесс перемещения войск или подразделений с одного фронта на другой для укрепления обороны или поддержания инициативы в определенном направлении.
Какие факторы могут привести к переdeployment российских войск?
-Россия может быть вынуждена переdeploy войск из-за удержания инициативы Украиной на севере, что потребует усиления обороны в этом регионе, или из-за необходимости поддержания натиска на восточных и южных фронтах.
Какое оборудование было захвачено в ходе операции на востоке Украины?
-В ходе операции на востоке Украины были захвачены российские ПС (пленные солдат), в том числе консипты и границные охранники, а также высокотехнологичные танки, такие как Challenger 2.
Что может обозначать использование к51-справок в боевых действиях?
-К51-справки, или дымовые гранаты, могут быть использованы для контроля беспорядков, но их использование против людей является нарушением химической конвенции, несмотря на то, что они содержат химически активные вещества, такие как хлоропикрин.
Какие последствия могут быть для России после захвата пункта поддержки газопровода?
-Захват пункта поддержки газопровода может дать Украине важную карту для переговоров с европейскими альянсами о предоставлении новых военного оборудования и экономической помощи, так как Россия потеряет значительную часть своих доходов от экспорта газа.
Какие российские войска могут быть переdeployed из Донецкой области?
-Возможно, что будут переdeployed небольшие группы из нерегулярных подразделений, такие как спецназ или дроны, которые могут быть перемещены из Донецкой области на украинский фронт.
Какие изменения произошли на южном фронте в районе поов?
-На южном фронте в районе поов российские войска продолжают наступление и тактический окружной обхват украинских войск к юго-востоку от поов, при этом не существует отчетов о том, что российское командование пере调动 большие и лучше подготовленные подразделения из Донецкой области на этот фронт.
Какие возможные цели украинской операции на севере России?
-Цели украинской операции на севере России могут быть ограниченными и включать в себя захват стратегических объектов, таких как газодуковой пункт или город Суджа, для улучшения позиций в переговорах и получения новых возможностей для дальнейших операций.
Какие последствия может иметь операция Украиной на севере России для других регионов Украины?
-Операция на севере может привести к переdeployment российских войск из других регионов, усиливая натиск на восток Украины и замедляя украинские успехи в Донецкой области, где Россия продолжает ведение войны за изношение.
Outlines
🔍 Анализ военного положения и расследование использования химических веществ
В первом параграфе обсуждается текущее военное положение, сосредоточившись на рассмотрении ударов, захваченных транспортных средств и падения самолетов. Также авторы анализируют карты событий на севере, востоке и юге, предоставляя свою оценку происходящего. Особое внимание уделяется расследованию использования химических веществ в ходе конфликта, включая обсуждение роли PWS (полицейских войсковых частей) и их значимости в обменах военнопленными.
📊 Разбор обмена военнопленными и анализ потерь
Второй параграф посвящён обсуждению обмена военнопленными, включая вопрос о том, насколько ценными являются различные категории военнослужащих при таких обменах. Также рассматривается видеоматериал о захвате российских военнослужащих и их содержании в складских помещениях, а также обсуждается потеря системы 'Хигас' в Сумах и уничтожение Challenger 2, предположительно британского производства.
🚀 Изучение потерь техники и стратегических целей украинских действий
Третий параграф анализирует потерю техники, включая российский бомбардировщик Tu22M и британский танк Challenger 2, а также обсуждается стратегический выбор украинских войск на севере и востоке Украины. Авторы обсуждают, насколько войска Украины могут удерживать инициативу на севере и заставить российские войска пересмотреть свои расстановку сил на востоке и юге.
🌍 Геополитический анализ и оценка боевых действий
В четвёртом параграфе авторы освещают геополитические аспекты конфликта, включая российские боевые действия в Донецкой области и украинские успехи на севере. Обсуждается также вопрос о том, будут ли российские войска продолжать наступление на востоке, несмотря на украинские действия на севере, и наоборот, может ли Украина удерживать свои позиции, заставив российские силы пересмотреть свои стратегические планы.
🛣️ Обзор успехов украинских войск и их дальнейших стратегических целей
Пятый параграф фокусируется на успехах украинских войск на севере, включая захват территорий и стремление к созданию буферной зоны вокруг города Суджа. Также обсуждается экономическая и стратегическая значимость захваченных объектов, а также возможные дальнейшие шаги украинских войск и их влияние на общую ситуацию на фронте.
⏳ Прогноз развития событий и оценка влияния на боевые действия в других регионах
В шестом параграфе авторы предоставляют прогноз по дальнейшим развитию событий на военном фронте, включая возможные реакции России и Украины на текущую военную ситуацию. Также обсуждается, насколько действия на севере могут влиять на боевые действия в других регионах, в частности на востоке и юге Украины.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Химическое оружие
💡Пленные войска
💡Переговоры обмена
💡СУ-35
💡Чанлер 2
💡ТУ-22М
💡Геополитические цели
💡Логистические возможности
💡Борьба за привилегированные позиции
💡Аттракционная война
Highlights
Analysis of the ongoing race between Ukraine and Russia for strategic advantage in different frontlines.
Concerns raised over the use of K51 riot control grenades, which may violate the Chemical Weapons Convention.
Discussion on the potential implications of the use of chemical weapons by both Russia and Ukraine in the conflict.
Reports of a surge in the capture of Russian prisoners of war (POWs) and their potential use in swaps.
Footage analysis of Russian soldiers being taken prisoner and the uncertainty surrounding the exact location and circumstances.
Questioning the exchange rate for troops and the value of conscripts versus more experienced soldiers.
Footage of a highas system being struck and the subsequent explosion, indicating successful Ukrainian counter-battery fire.
Reports of a Russian Tu22M supersonic bomber aircraft crashing due to a technical malfunction.
Analysis of the potential strategic objectives behind Ukraine's incursion into Russian territory.
Discussion on the importance of the Sudas gas meeting station and its potential role in future negotiations.
Assessment of the Ukrainian Army's control over new territories and the challenges of maintaining momentum.
Reports of the Russian military maintaining a high offensive tempo in Donetsk Oblast despite Ukrainian pressure.
Analysis of the potential redeployment of Russian forces from unspecified areas to counter the Ukrainian incursion.
Speculation on the commitment of Ukraine to the Kherson offensive and the strategic use of high-tech assets.
Discussion on the potential impact of the conflict on other areas within Ukraine, particularly the Donbass region.
Predictions on the future of the conflict, including the potential for a stalemate and the importance of logistics and entrenchment.
Conclusion on the ongoing nature of the conflict and the commitment to continue reporting on developments.
Transcripts
getto Legends I hope that you're having
a fantastic day a fantastic friday
leading into an even better weekend now
today as always we do have a lot to
speak about we're going to look at a
number of strikes a number of vehicles
being used and planes coming down as
well of course we'll look at the maps in
the north the East and the South and
give our assessment of what is happening
there and have a look at where things
are moving but I think that there is a
race Happening Here of course Ukraine
has the initiative in the North in K
Russia has the initiative in the
direction of poov I think the race that
we're seeing occur is who has to deploy
reserves from one of these Frontline
elements first can Ukraine hold the
initiative in the north and force Russia
to move troops away from areas in the
East or the South to bolster the
defenses there to stop then that front
line moving or can Russia continue
pushing in areas the East and in the
South and then Force Ukraine to pull
troops away from KK to redeploy
defensive works there and I think that
is the race the race to see who can
force the other side to redeploy their
forces but we'll talk about more of that
in a second and we'll talk about a lot
of PWS being taken and the advantage of
having PWS in swaps as well so I was
just scrolling Twitter as I do and this
video came up shared from Mr Rob Lee
here a video of members of the Ukraine's
SSO eth regiment fighting in New York
now this is the opening scene one second
in I see this and this is something very
concerning so this was the first opening
scene this to my eye is a
k51 riot control grenade something we
have seen used throughout this war but
is of course against chemical weapon
convention now does it matter that it's
chloropicrin is the active ingredient
riot control or not not to the treaty
and I've spoken at length about this we
see both Russia and Ukraine dropping
these of this top one Russia this bottom
one Ukraine and where Russia and Ukraine
have signed and ratified the chemical
weapons convention and these are clearly
banned under that and to even get a
better idea of that I spoke with a
combat engineer of course with cbrn
chemical biological radiological
training as well as an international
criminal lawyer just to see if I was
correct or not and to clear up some
things about the use of drones
surrendering chemical weapons and all of
this if you want to watch that I will
link all of this then below but let's
bring this up to have a look here and
then we see a number of Articles over
the past months too of Ukraine then
really against Russia's use of these and
of course one being used somewhere does
not mean it's right somewhere else so
Russia uses uh chemical ammo against
Ukrainian Defenders a k51 air assault
grenade this under the chemical weapons
convention and Geneva protocol despite
prohibition the Russians have used these
grenades many times photo above is a k51
canister we can see the bottom then here
I'll bring up a better photograph of it
here Ukraine's general staff report
surge in Russian's use of chemical
weapons in Conflict you're asking me
happy to be incorrect happy to be
correct corrected and I'll correct
myself looking like the same thing to me
I probably wouldn't put that in my
opening scene of my video so before we
look at the other strikes challenges
High Mars I also then want to talk about
these PS Now what we have seen
throughout Ukraine's incursion the
offensive actions into KK is a lot of
Russian PS being taken and a lot of
these are border guards conscripts and
then surrendering and Ukraine's getting
a lot of people to then swap back so
let's have a look at some of the footage
that has came out over then the past say
12 to 16 hours so we see a lot of the
these prisoners held then in this like
storage shed here and it's around 100 by
the footage we can see some Drone
footage here as we zoom out the amount
of these guys then on the ground these
Russian soldiers here let's zoom out
further so guys being taken then
prisoner and back inside the storage
shed now one thing which is being asked
about this footage is is this footage
from Ukraine has rolled into this area
and then taken 100 guys 100 guys have
surrendered at that point or is this a
collection point a rendevu point for PS
from other areas maybe even over past
days now that isn't clear from the
footage one way or the other was this
all in one hit the 100 guys in one hit
at surrended or is it a collection point
they RV here and then taken back across
to Ukraine as well so again not 100%
sure on this but I'll show you and show
you where both sides are talking about
this too something else being questioned
I've been questioning this a lot and I
will just say I don't know is what is
the exchange rate for troops is it one
conscript for one volunteer highly
motivated troop because a lot of the
time when we see PW exchanges we don't
see equal numbers we'll see 30 for 50 or
we see WNBA for the Lord of War but with
soldiers we do see a difference in that
an officer or a pilot is going to be
significantly different to a conscript
too so it will be interesting to see and
we'll probably get a better idea of this
down the line too but conscripts they
hold a lot of value too because of of
course the conscript has not volunteered
to be there their families know that
their son hasn't volunteered to be there
and this can cause a lot of Rift within
a society to when conscripts are being
killed or captured particularly then on
your own territory also so a lot there
for Ukraine to swap back at some point
and they'll be looking to get more
experienced guys back I am sure so we do
have the clearest footage of a highas
system being taken out in Sumi so just
before we watch this I'll show you
exactly where it is this is actually
where it is struck not where it is in
the beginning of the footage but we see
suia blast kers blast suja which is
confirmed to be completely under
Ukrainian control today so then right in
here now let's then watch the footage so
we see it fire off some missiles in the
beginning here this is being tracked by
a Russian drone in the
air once it's fir these Salvo of
missiles we then see it driving back
again if you want to watch this fall
thing go and watch it on my telegram if
you'd
like driving back pulls into then this
area and then we see a Russian i scander
m then strike
this and then we do see the subsequent a
cook off of this no this is not a decoy
so then we say it or if it is a decoy
it's just as expensive as a real one how
good is a decoy till it is just real and
I'm joking anyway so we see this cook
off here then we see another vehicle
then rushing to the
aid and of this Burning vehicle or maybe
straight on pass so very interesting to
see that we have seen very limited
footage of himars being struck of course
a lot of claims as well just randomly I
saw this this isn't the right footage
this one here this is a Ukrainian tank
operating in the Sumi ablast here and
firing and then it is actually struck as
well by said to be a Russian Ice scander
now we can actually tell this is in it
might not be the directly same spot but
you can tell by the tree line the
environment around here this is very
very similar area so we see this is
where the high Mars was struck and if
you compare the two bits of footage
compare the pair no one other than
Australians will get this you can see it
is definitely in the same area so there
is of course a lot of ISR assets as
these drones overhead and having
successful hits on Ukrainian assets
there too but we can see this is me
trying to balance to show if he strikes
on one on the other so people don't you
only show this there has been a pil
killed confirmed by fighter bomber P and
snip Major General nikolich has died now
I believe you can correct me if from
wrong but I believe this is a S35
aircraft back here so if there are any
recent claims of su 35s going down we
can then line this up and go this is
likely what then has occurred but I want
to talk about this Challenger 2 as this
has caused a lot of stir online whether
it is or is not a British made
Challenger 2 operate ating in the k
oblast then inside of Russia now we see
the opening footage here and then we
skip through the footage and we can see
there are some hard Cuts in this going
to different areas and then it is struck
said to be by a Lancet subsequent
Cookoff and destruction of the vehicle
now many will say and this is we see
this in a lot of Russian footage it's
really bloody annoying is like a hard
cut goto a complete area or a massive
zoom out now there is a hard cut in this
but what I will say is if you look at
the light in this image this is like
golden hour either in the morning or in
the afternoon and the lighting is
actually very similar in the beginning
and the end you can see the sun is low
on the horizon and really gold so we
know at least this footage was taken
around the same time and by the tree
lines it is looking like very similar
areas to of course it's still somewhat
unclear by this footage so I'll just
show you here the screenshot of the
beginning of this footage this is where
people pointing at is chal 2 of course
turret very large gun sits well off the
front of a chal 2 but this isn't
completely clear from here we get a
little bit more this is the aftermath of
that strike and you can see where the
targeting system is and the
Capa as well that it is lining up fairly
closely to a chal 2 we have an overlay
of one here and it is looking again
fairly close I don't think anything here
is you know million per that but again
looking fairly close to my eye and we do
have a lot of more mainstream media
talking that there has been the
deployment of British Challenger 2 tanks
in then this incursion so I think it's
likely that it is and this is only the
second time we have actually really seen
Challis being used and the reason I
bring this up and I believe that this is
important isn't the vehicle itself being
taken out being used that that's that's
not the important part of this but we
have confirmation there being used and
we have been hearing for a while now
that the Challenger 2os would be
strictly used for breakthroughs so maybe
we are seeing that maybe we're seeing a
lot more thrown in we we have questioned
how committed to the K offensive is
Ukraine isn't it offensive across get
some areas pull out open somewhere else
we're not sure but seeing Vehicles like
this that we know Ukraine doesn't have
in large numbers they are fairly rare we
don't see them deployed that much could
it be a further commitment of willing to
uh put in assets there as you know
you're going to lose these Assets Now
this is similar to like when we saw the
Abrams popping up around ad Diva if
Ukraine is deploying these limited
high-tech tanks into areas where they
there is a risk of then losing them then
we can say that this is likely a very
high priority Mission uh being conducted
so it may tell us about the commitment
to this you put in your best kit where
you're willing to lose it but where you
can get a lot of gains also so let's
talk about planes now this is a
tu22m supersonic bomber aircraft sort of
like the wish.com of a tu60 I believe at
least by looks but then we do see
footage of one of these said to have
then a technical
malfunction and is on
fire and then comes to the ground in an
impressive Fireball and we have more
footage of this of of course burnt up on
the ground now where did this take place
well this took place way out here in Utz
which is a hell of a long way away from
Ukraine around Mongolia so there's no
weapon system that Ukraine has that
could go this far to strike a bomber
like this so most likely is a mechanical
malfunction I've spoken about fighter
aircraft before bomber aircraft these
are not your Toyota Camry these are more
like a Formula 1 car they can have a lot
of technical malfunctions especially
these older planes now these are very
long in the tooth now being used more
and more to drop bombs now for you know
into their third year of war that they
could see a lot of maintenance issues
mechanical problems popping up like this
now F bomber did say the main thing is
that we are alive confirming the Downing
of this saying that the crew was alive
and interesting part with this is these
ejection seats actually get launched at
the bottom of the plane so you hear
about pilots who say they're an inch
shorter after after ejecting upwards I
wonder if maybe you can get an inch
taller from coming out the bottom but
that is an interesting bit of footage
and we have spoken about with the
increased intensity of the air campaign
will we see an increase in maintenance
issues on these planes that has been
spoken about for a long time so let's
push then up into the North and see
where things are changing of course here
is Ukrainian Center is the capital of ke
the red areas occupied since 22 the
purple since 14 the blue areas new
territory uh taken by Ukraine or
recovered by Ukraine within two weeks so
we come up into the K oblast here this
map is not the best map for this but
just to show you we can see there has
been an increase of Gray Zone and Blue
Zone then today but just to then this
amount so just a smaller amount today
than we have seen in previous days and
this is shown as well if we jump onto
the Noel reports map who's doing uh he's
doing a lot more of the maing of this
area then a deep State you can see so
these are some of the large Slots of
land taken on the 13th the 14th the eth
we can see this is the only change on
the 15th so there is just a much smaller
change compared to previous days we have
been hearing in here that there is
rotation of Ukrainian elements in here
both for fatigue and casualties as well
and this could really slow down
advancements for a few days as well as
now that Russian reinforcements are
starting to arrive and that Russia is
starting to dig in in areas we could see
this slow down particularly from what we
saw at least in those initial days and
last week also so we'll just keep an eye
on what is happening in here too but I
spoke about this redeployment of forces
so let's look at this this is from the
isw Russian forces are maintaining their
relatively High offensive Tempo in dones
oblas demonstrating the Russian military
command continues to prioritize advances
in eastern Ukraine even as Ukraine is
pressuring Russian forces within K obas
the Russian forces are continuing to
pursue a tactical encirclement of
Ukrainian forces southeast of poov so in
poov this is what we spoke about in the
beginning that I believe there's a race
on to see who sort of uh has to give in
first and then pull forces so we see
yesterday was a good map to see this we
can see the amount of ground being taken
out around towards poov over the last
week that the Russian advancement is
still then occurring here we'll look at
the maps of this specific area in a bit
the Ukrainian uh this group forces
spokesman Captain demitro lovi stated on
August 15 that there have also been no
significant changes to the Russian Force
grouping in southern Ukraine and the
Russian forces are not decreasing their
offensive operations in the area the
maps tend to show this Russia has begun
moving certain elements from Ukraine to
respond to the situation in KK oblast
but the types of units that they are
redeploying and where they redeploying
from is a strong indicator the Russian
military command is still prioritizing
ongoing offensive operations in eastern
Ukraine so we have spoken about this
could be the best action in defense is
the best uh defense offense that if
Russia just go Balls to Wall down in the
East that Ukraine may need to pull
troops away from Cur to bolster that and
therefore it's going to be easier to
recover ground than in the East but is
Ukraine doing the same thing that you
find a weak spot in Russia's border you
push through and they may have to red
employe
forces uh San said two US officials
stated the Russian military command has
redeployed multiple Brigade sized
elements of of up oh my God up of at
least a thousand Personnel each from
unspecified areas to the KK oblast two
sources familiar with West intelligence
reportedly stated the Russian military
command is not moving larger and better
trained elements from unspecified areas
of Ukraine to K obas so unspecified
areas this could be is it just somewhere
in the rear is it somewhere on the front
but we are seeing that front continuing
to move isw has not observed reports in
the open source that the Russian
military command is redeploying entire
brigades from Ukraine to K oblast but
has observed reports of elements of
Russian regiments redeploying to that
area the isw continues to assess that
Russian military command is pulling
select elements of Russian irregular
units from dones oblas to address
Ukrainian incursion into K ablast but
will likely be extremely averse to
pulling Russian military units engaged
in combat from Priority sectors in Don
oblas out of concerns about slowing the
tempo of Russian operations in these
areas so regular units you might be
talking SF units you might be talking
drone units that's the two that come to
mind so maybe redeploy some irregular
units here we have seen just because on
a piece of Ukrainian or Russian Drone
footage it has then the Brigade there
from that doesn't mean that entire
Brigade is there it just may mean that
attached drone team has then moved and
we spoke say about 4 days ago about how
that can be part of the information
campaign too to try and show that where
units may or may not be moving from and
I believe there is a bit of force to try
and get Ukrainian forces or Russian
forces to redeploy and make it easier to
have offensive or defensive actions in a
specific area now we have a lot of
surric write up about what is happening
in the north so let's jump back on this
we'll compare the pair we'll compare the
maps we'll have a look at then this
movement here so we can see similar then
directions out on the East here it can
be a bit difficult to see but where
Russia has made ground and that suja has
come under complete control in the last
48 hours Ukraine Army were able to drive
Russian army out of the eastern part of
suja and take control of the suburbs of
these the Ukrainian presence in the
locality of mikova uh could also be
confirmed reports in the last days in
addition Ukrainian forces recaptured
these and several kilometers to the
south on the other hand Russian forces
counterattacked and regained control of
these localities down in this region in
here too so areas that were out and in
control again very liquid around here
Ukraine still gaining some ground after
a week of the Ukrainian offensive on
Russian territory the Ukraine Army has
taken control or established presence in
58 localities including the town of suja
reaching 680 km of Russian so depending
where you listen to Ukraine will say
around more of a 100 localities and a
bit around 1,000 square km too again can
be very difficult to know exactly what
is happening here due to Pres and
control being different things the
Ukrainian offensive has had an initial
success in penetrating poorly defended
sector of the border with shortage of
detection and electronic warfare means
as well as few military personnel
supported by American European
intelligence the Ukrainian Armed Forces
launched a series of deep attacks on
Russian saw with armored troops and
small reconnaissance groups that cause
Panic amongst Russian troops many of
whom were recruits with little combat
experience and could be seen in the
videos on the first days what is the
purpose of such
operation now far from the stupid
statements of those who claim Ukraine's
want to get to Moscow we are dealing
with an operation that has very limited
objectives at least in the long term
again I don't believe the actual
objectives here are clear could it have
been to try and have some Blitz Craig
effort to curse that is what I was told
at one point could it been the nuclear
power plant I have never really believed
that because of the Fallout PR wise
around the world of trying to then
occupy a power plant like Russia does
down in zap oblast 2 we don't really
know the goals could it just be to draw
troops away could it be to show the West
that hey we can make background you need
to give us more equipment and show
Regular Russians and in the Kremlin hey
we will attack back in also you know
these objectives are strategic and not
Territorial and revolve around a small
area of the Russian Ukraine Russian
border we're talking about the sudas gas
meeting station and the town of the same
time sorry left out one thing there as
well people talking about a swap back of
kilometer for kilometer territory if
there is negot iations in alone the
first of these is economic importance at
the Eurasian level and runs through the
this pipeline one of Russia's main
natural gas export pipelines brings in
about $6 billion a year for Russia the
capture of the station won't pose an e
economic problem for Russia which could
cut off the gas supplies to Europe but
would have a negative impact on these
states that have not reduced their
dependence on Moscow this would allow ke
to have an important trump card in
future negotiations with its European
allies for the delivery of new military
material and economic aid which could be
intensified after this military success
so you know we can turn this back on we
can get it going back through but we
need more stuff puts pressure on
countries which may be a little bit iffy
maybe Slovakia Hungary countries like
this to further Ukrainian Aid the second
strategic area of the town is suja along
the suburbs as it is the first large
town to be taken by Ukrainian troops and
would mean the creation of a very
important logistical point for Ukraine
in the continuation of this offensive
thus compensate for the greater
logistical capacity of the Russian
troops thanks to the presence of such
cities as these larger ones and of
course KK uh for this reason what is
happening now seems to be the creation
of a buffer zone around suja where the
Ukrainian Army is expected to entrench
itself in the city and the highlands
near the border in contrast the Russians
west of suja uh meanwhile fighting on
the Northern Highlands will continue the
following days deciding whether the
operation continues northwards or stalls
so looking at where these major other
areas are and could Su work as a
logistical Hub so Els come into suja and
then are distributed outwards of here
this is what Russia's trying to do down
in poov very similar but different front
so of course IND suja the entrenching
systems of Russia and where The High
Ground is where Ukraine will try and
gain that and what is being questioned
is Will Russia entrench outside of this
and for I guess forgo some land but then
Force Ukraine to occupy a large area and
a large front line drawing troops away
long term will Ukraine continue on be
able to have those Logistics and
rotation of elements these are unknown
yet or will Russia try and recapture all
of this potentially with a lot of forces
in here and may need to draw forces from
other areas of the front to do this the
Ukrainian Army is aware that the
momentum of its success is beginning to
run out after the arrival of significant
quantities of Russian weapons and
experienced troops to the Frontline area
which have begun to slow down the
advance in some areas once the front
line stabilizes which is still several
days away the Russian Armed Forces will
begin to intensify bombardment of
Ukrainian troops in the era which will
suffer significant losses if they do not
dig in K's objective will then to be H
out until winter arrives and wait for
the outcome of the US elections in
November when a negotiation process
could begin and where maintaining a
strip of Russian territory under its
control could benefit in a hypothetical
agreement that would end the war Ukraine
need to dig in if they want to hold
these areas particularly going into
winter where maneuver Warfare is limited
and that Russia will be dropping things
like those Fabs and that artillery here
as well on the other hand Ukrainian
operation has not managed to have an
impact on other areas inside Ukraine in
fact the risky move of using experienced
troops that were defending the Eastern
Front is taking its toll on the forces
defending the positions in the dbass
where Russian forces are making
consecutive uh so consecutive advances
on a daily basis in reality it has not
been necessary to convert many resour
resources to the kurk front from there
but these were sent from the rear guard
and from bellarus we did see elements
cross from bellus as well and this is
similar to what like the isw was saying
in short curs cooperations will not
change the general trend of the war the
initial Ukrainian Victory will be slowed
reversed while the Russian army continue
its War of Attrition in Ukraine and on
its way to taking over the whole dbass
the war sadly continues so how how much
effect has this had on other areas so
far we haven't seen much of that effect
if not actually an acceleration of other
areas that where Russia are pushing very
hard to particularly poov a divka as isw
we spoke about and as I'm about to show
you now so let's come down into ABD now
we don't see any change on this map of
red what we do say see sorry is a change
of Gray Zone indicating there some has
been maybe some advancement down to the
South out from zeleni here of course
this is getting closer and closer to
then poov now we have in a Surak M map
here too situation paulov Russian army
took control of the localities of these
um South raway in addition some advances
were made by Russian forces at the
Southeastern outskirts of hodka where
clashes with Ukrainian Army are taking
place so out in the North in honka and
down in the South here too so this is
showing it's pushing a little bit
further down to the South but similar to
where we saw then the gray Zone shift
here so we may see some red movement on
this map maybe tomorrow we then have a
Noel reports map here as well so let's
Zoom down now this is today of his and
what he is showing is this Russian
advancement more in line with what
suriak is showing of this mava shown in
Gray Zone here then coming into Red Zone
by his map so we can say there probably
been most likely some advancement along
this sector here continuing that grind
force of attritional warfare here and
like I've said multiple times in this
video will there become a point where
there's a Tipping Point that Ukraine
have to send forces back to here or that
Russia has to send forces up to here to
stabilize now come into then New York
front in here now we don't have any uh
other Surak Map update today but then we
can see from the Noel reports map that
he showing further control out in this
area more control than the Deep state is
showing we did see yesterday that Russia
had been expanding its control in this
particular sector but let's look at
where this map has actually shown some
changes today so we come down we just
see in crer hika that more of crer hika
is coming under Rush control after this
very slow grind through here we watched
on this channel the Breakin from the
initial Breakin through to the Grind
Street by Street they back and forward
in here but it has been having some
success over the past days in here I
thought it would show more than that we
can see where it has had some initial
success and getting sliver by sliver in
then this front up to then today now
zoom out a little bit and the only other
change we see is up then on this pasani
front here we do see a Russian
advancement towards of course this
oscill river that runs through here
which we believe Russia's trying to get
to this as a natural barrier to split
the North and the South now this is an
area which has been coming under russan
control over the past few days and weeks
if we push forward we can see an
advancement through then better
stove wait need to get back there we go
so we do see this advancement up through
better stove
here and then further pushing up to then
today near Panic so is initiative and
taking ground here too so where the
future of the all this holds I don't
know but what I do know is that we will
be here reporting on what then occurs
anyway Legends I hope that you have a
fantastic day and I'll speak to you
tomorrow thank you bye-bye
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