Joseph Nye on global power shifts

Summary

This talk discusses the transformation of power in the 21st century, highlighting two key shifts: power transition, with Asia's economic recovery, and power diffusion, where non-state actors gain influence. It emphasizes the importance of soft power and the need for innovative narratives to understand power dynamics. The speaker advocates for smart power strategies that combine hard and soft power to address global challenges, promoting cooperation and positive-sum outcomes.

Takeaways

• 🌍 Power in the 21st century is shifting both geographically and among actors.
• 🔄 Power transition refers to the shift of power from the West to the East, particularly Asia.
• 🌐 Power diffusion involves the spread of power from states to non-state actors due to technological advancements.
• 🖥️ The drastic drop in computing and communication costs has allowed non-state actors, both good and bad, to gain power.
• 💡 Power can be exerted through coercion (sticks), payments (carrots), or attraction (soft power).
• 📜 The 21st century's narrative of power should focus on whose story wins, not just whose army wins.
• 📊 Economic projections, such as China's rise, are often oversimplified and don't account for factors like military or soft power.
• 💼 Power today can be seen as a three-dimensional chess game: military, economic, and transnational power.
• 👥 Cooperation and the use of smart power (a mix of hard and soft power) are essential to solving global challenges.
• 🤝 The key to managing power shifts is to focus on creating global public goods that benefit all, not just a zero-sum approach.

Q & A

What are the two major changes in power discussed in the speech?

The two major changes are power transition, where power shifts between states (from West to East), and power diffusion, where power moves from states to non-state actors due to technological advancements.

What is meant by 'power transition' in the context of the 21st century?

Power transition refers to the shift of power among states, particularly the movement of power from Western nations to Eastern nations, with Asia returning to its historically dominant position in terms of population and economic output.

How has Asia's economic power changed over the centuries, according to the speaker?

In 1800, Asia accounted for more than half of the world's population and production. By 1900, Asia still had more than half the population but produced only a fifth of global output due to the Industrial Revolution in Europe and America. The 21st century sees Asia gradually returning to its former position of dominance.

What is 'power diffusion,' and why is it significant?

Power diffusion refers to the spread of power from states to non-state actors, enabled by the rapid decline in communication and computing costs. This change means that non-state actors like NGOs, corporations, or even terrorist groups can influence global affairs in ways previously limited to governments.

What is soft power, and why is it important?

Soft power is the ability to influence others and achieve desired outcomes through attraction and persuasion, rather than coercion or payment (hard power). It is important because it can reduce reliance on military or economic force and is crucial in solving global challenges cooperatively.

How does the speaker define power?

Power is defined as the ability to influence others to get the outcomes you want. This can be achieved through coercion (threats or force), inducements (payments), or attraction (soft power).

Why does the speaker criticize linear projections of China's rise in economic power?

The speaker criticizes linear projections like those from Goldman Sachs because they assume continuous growth without disruptions and focus only on economic power, ignoring factors like military power, soft power, and internal challenges in China.

Why does the speaker argue that fear is the greatest danger in managing power transitions?

The speaker argues that fear, especially the fear of a rising China, can lead to overreactions and dangerous policies, much like the fear that led to conflicts in the past, such as the Peloponnesian War and World War I.

What analogy does the speaker use to explain the distribution of power in the modern world?

The speaker uses the analogy of a three-dimensional chess game. Military power is unipolar (the U.S. dominates), economic power is multipolar (balanced among several major economies), and transnational issues like climate change and pandemics are chaotically distributed, requiring cooperation.

What is the speaker's outlook on the future of global power dynamics?

The speaker is optimistic, suggesting that if nations can combine hard power and soft power into 'smart power' strategies and focus on cooperation rather than competition, they can address global challenges and create positive-sum outcomes for all.