China Is Leaving Africa Behind
Summary
TLDR本视频探讨了中国是否在控制非洲的问题。自本世纪初以来,中国以借款形式在非洲进行大量投资,成为非洲最大的债权国。这些借款通常以自然资源作为抵押,引发了关于中国利用债务陷阱以获得政治和经济利益的争论。然而,视频也指出,这种对中国控制论的担忧被夸大了。实际上,中国在非洲的投资正在减少,部分原因是这些大型投资项目并未带来预期的收益,同时非洲国家对中国的总体债务占比较小。视频通过分析中国与非洲的贷款和投资关系,挑战了中国新殖民主义的观点,并提出中国在非洲的角色更复杂,且双方均有收益和损失。
Takeaways
- 🌍 中国已经成为非洲最大的债权国,某些国家如肯尼亚,中国持有其75%的双边债务。
- 💰 过去几年,中国通过借贷而非赠与的方式,向非洲大量提供资金,这些债务可能使非洲国家对中国产生依赖。
- 🛤️ 从21世纪初开始,中国的对非洲的控制故事开始,随着中国作为世界工厂的地位确立,开始寻找新的投资地点,非洲成为其主要目标。
- 📉 2008年全球金融危机后,西方国家的利率降至负值,导致中国投资的主权债券收益率下降,促使中国将目光转向非洲。
- 🏗️ 中国在非洲的投资主要集中在基础设施建设上,这是其新丝绸之路项目的一部分,旨在通过建设基础设施扩展其全球商业影响力。
- 🔋 非洲的自然资源,如锂和硅,对于中国新兴工业,特别是微芯片和可再生能源行业至关重要。
- 💵 很多非洲国家对中国的债务是通过自然资源开发权作为抵押的,如果这些国家无法偿还债务,中国则可能获得这些自然资源。
- 🌐 中国提供的贷款通常不要求像国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界银行那样的支付保证,但这种做法被批评为可能是出于获取自然资源和政治利益的目的。
- 📉 自2016年以来,中国对非洲的投资和贷款有所减少,从一年近300亿美元降至2020年的不到50亿美元。
- 🚧 中国在非洲的许多项目经常面临过高预算、延期和腐败问题,这可能解释了中国公司越来越多地对这些项目采取风险防范措施。
- 📊 虽然中国是非洲最大的双边债权国,但实际上,非洲国家的大部分债务(60%)是国内债务,而中国的债务不到这些国家公共债务总额的6%。
Q & A
中国是否在控制非洲?
-虽然这个问题听起来像是阴谋论,但实际上并不是。中国过去几年确实在非洲大陆上投入了大量资金,这些资金主要是贷款形式,而不是无偿援助。北京已经成为非洲最大的债权国,在某些国家,如肯尼亚,中国的贷款占到了所有双边债务的75%。
为什么中国要在非洲投资?
-2008年全球金融危机后,西方的利率进入负值,中国投资的主权债务不再盈利,因此中国开始寻找新的投资地点。非洲国家被视为一个巨大的机会,不仅因为财务上的回报,还包括商业、工业乃至政治上的利益。
中国在非洲的投资有哪些形式?
-中国的投资主要通过一带一路项目,这是一个价值数千亿美元的巨大投资计划,旨在建设新的基础设施,扩展其全球商业触角。在非洲,这种投资主要集中在自然资源开发和基础设施建设上。
非洲国家对于中国的贷款有何反应?
-非洲国家因为无法在西方获得低成本贷款而面临财务困境,因此它们需要资金来发展基础设施和教育等,从而接受了中国的贷款。虽然这些贷款带来了发展机会,但也使得一些非洲国家对中国产生了高度的债务依赖。
中国的贷款策略是否存在问题?
-批评者指出,中国的贷款策略可能是利用其贷款国的地位,通过贷款获得自然资源开采权作为抵押,这种做法被称为“债务陷阱”。但实际上,中国在非洲的投资并没有完全符合这一理论,且中国也面临投资回报减少的问题。
中国是否正在放弃非洲?
-自2016年以来,中国已经开始减少对非洲的投资和贷款,从一年近300亿美元降至2020年的不到50亿美元。这表明北京对非洲资源的策略可能正在结束。
中国在非洲投资减少的原因是什么?
-中国在非洲的投资减少可能是因为这些投资项目变成了巨大的资金黑洞,许多中国公司在非洲的项目亏损严重,加之非洲经济增长停滞,使得这些投资的回报率大大降低。
中国在非洲的投资对非洲有利吗?
-尽管中国的一些投资项目遇到了问题,但广泛的学术共识认为,向非洲政府提供贷款通常对这些国家的增长有正面影响。因此,中国的投资实际上帮助了非洲国家,尽管它也为中国带来了获取自然资源和政治上的某些优惠的机会。
非洲国家的债务主要由谁持有?
-非洲国家的债务60%是国内债务,即主要是向本国公民借款,而不是外国。而中国虽然是最大的双边债权国,但在非洲国家总公共债务中的占比不到6%。
中国的非洲策略未来会如何发展?
-鉴于中国在非洲投资的回报日益减少和面临的挑战,中国可能会继续调整其在非洲的投资策略,更加注重小而美的投资项目,同时可能会寻求其他地区和方式来实现其全球战略目标。
Outlines
🌍 中国在非洲的投资与债务问题
本段讨论了中国在非洲的经济活动,特别是通过提供贷款和投资基础设施建设来增强其在非洲大陆的影响力。中国已成为非洲最大的债权国,例如在肯尼亚,中国持有的双边债务占比达到75%。这种财务依赖关系可能使非洲国家在政治和经济上对中国产生依赖。早在本世纪初,中国就开始将其庞大的外汇储备投资于非洲,寻找新的投资机会,并通过其新丝绸之路计划在全球范围内扩大商业和政治影响力。非洲丰富的自然资源对于中国新兴产业尤为重要,但这种投资模式引发了关于中国可能利用债务陷阱获取非洲自然资源和政治影响力的争议。
🔄 中国在非洲的战略转变与影响
本段深入分析了中国在非洲的经济活动对非洲国家的长远影响。虽然有理论认为中国通过贷款和投资获得了非洲的矿产资源和政治支持,但实际上中国的许多投资项目并未带来预期的经济收益,甚至导致中国企业和银行面临损失。自2016年以来,中国对非洲的投资大幅减少,这表明中国可能正在重新评估其在非洲的投资战略。此外,该段还探讨了中国在国际商务旅行中的影响力,特别是通过Olly的国际数字SIM卡服务,为商务人士提供便利的国际通讯解决方案。
🤔 中国投资非洲的真实效果与未来展望
本段评估了中国在非洲的经济活动对非洲国家的实际影响,并对未来的趋势进行了展望。尽管有观点认为中国通过贷款和投资控制了非洲的资源和政治决策,但研究表明,中国的许多投资项目并未带来预期的收益,甚至对中国自身造成了经济损失。此外,非洲国家的债务结构复杂,中国虽然是最大的双边债权国,但在整体债务中所占比例有限。随着中国在非洲的投资策略调整,未来可能会出现更多注重效率和实用性的小型项目,而非洲的经济发展也将面临新的挑战和机遇。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡债务陷阱
💡新丝绸之路
Highlights
China has become the largest lender in Africa, holding a significant portion of the bilateral debt in countries like Kenya.
China's investment in Africa began in the early years of the new century, capitalizing on its economic boom and the need for natural resources.
The shift in China's investment from Western assets to African infrastructure and resources was prompted by the 2008 financial crisis.
African countries are seen as a gold mine for China's industrial and political ambitions, leading to massive investments known as the New Silk Road.
Many debts owed by African countries to China are backed by natural resource exploitation rights, raising concerns about sovereignty and economic independence.
Critics argue that China's lending practices in Africa could be a form of neo-colonialism, exploiting the continent's resources and political landscape.
China's non-conditional loans differ from those of IMF and World Bank, offering a more attractive but potentially risky alternative for African countries.
The concept of 'debt-trap diplomacy' suggests China's strategic use of loans to gain political leverage and access to resources, rather than purely economic gain.
Despite theories of Chinese colonialism, evidence suggests that China's involvement in Africa is not as exploitative or unilateral as often portrayed.
China's reduction in African investments since 2016 indicates a strategic shift, possibly due to the unprofitability of its mega projects in the region.
Loans from China often directly benefit Chinese companies involved in African infrastructure projects, but these investments have seen diminishing returns.
The Hamantota port project in Sri Lanka serves as a cautionary tale of the pitfalls of heavy investment and reliance on Chinese loans.
Chinese companies face higher risks and losses in Africa, prompting a shift towards smaller, more manageable projects.
Africa's stagnant economy poses a challenge to both Chinese investors and the continent's ability to leverage foreign investments for growth.
The narrative of China's control over Africa is more nuanced, with benefits and losses on both sides, challenging the simplistic view of exploitative practices.
Transcripts
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[Music]
moment is China controlling Africa it
may seem like a conspiratorial question
but it is not for the past few years
China has been showering the African
continent with a lot of money not free
money but borrowed money Beijing is
already the largest lender in all of
Africa and in some countries such as
Kenya it already holds 75% of of all its
bilateral debt you know how the saying
goes he who pays the piper calls the
tune and many African countries have
indebted their families to Beijing in
recent years this could be allowing the
Asian Giants to subjugate the subsaharan
African region but let's go to the
beginning of the whole Saga the story of
China's control over Africa began in the
early years of the new century at that
time China was growing at full speed the
country had already established itself
as the world's Factory and its foreign
reserves were overflow flowing on all
four sides the Chinese government
managed to accumulate a lot of dollars
but instead of keeping them in a safe
collecting dust it decided to invest
them in Western assets such as us
sovereign debt this was quite
interesting since sovereign debt is an
investment that at high interest rates
is reasonably profitable and above all
safe in other words for the Chinese it
was a safe and lucrative investment from
2008 onwards however the picture changed
with the global financial crisis
interest rates in the West fell into
negative territory and of course the
Sovereign Bonds in which China had
invested were no longer profitable so in
other words they were out of business so
the Chinese decided to look for new
places to invest their Surplus money and
do you know what that's when they
realized there was a great opportunity
in
Africa the Chinese authorities realized
that African countries could be a gold
mine for their interests not only
financial but also commercial industrial
and even why not say it political well
from that moment on a veritable
elephanttine investment project was
launched in Africa but at the same time
China also invested in many other
countries in Asia and Latin America all
these huge investment plans became known
as the new Silk Road we are talking
about a project worth hundreds of
billions of dollars with which China
sought to build new infrastructure that
would extend its commercial Clause
around the globe and indeed in the case
of Africa investment has been one of the
key the success of Chinese industry just
think about it what is it that
characterizes Africa economically Above
All Else indeed it's natural resources
and not surprisingly it turns out that
China's new Industries especially those
related to microchips and renewable
energies need huge amounts of Natural
Resources such as lithium and silicon
and visual economic Community this is
where a huge conspiracy theory emerges
you see many of the debts owed by
African countries to China are backed by
natural resource exploitation rights
that is if the government of say Kenya
cannot repay its debts to China then
China keeps the country's natural
resources and you will probably be
thinking well that is a legitimate
decision if the Kenyans want to go into
debt and put up their natural resources
as collateral that's up to them and it's
their decision right well in principle
yes but many critics point out that
China is abusing its position of power
after all many African countries have no
way of accessing cheap loans in the west
and of course in many cases they need
money to survive as they are already
heavily indebted countries in need of
constant financing we are talking about
the fact that some African countries pay
around 1 of their public Revenue
servicing interest on debt alone and at
the same time if they want to grow
economically they need to take on more
debt and invest in infrastructure
education energy in short in their
productive fabric put another way
African debt can almost only be repaid
with more debt however since these
countries are so poor nobody lends them
cheap cheap money and they end up in a
real spiral of misery and this is where
China comes
[Music]
in China comes to Africa with cheap
credit and investment what's more unlike
other lenders such as the IMF and the
World Bank China does not demand payment
guarantees such as higher taxes or Cuts
in public spending basically the Chinese
offer cheap checks to the governments of
the day without conditions but they
demand natural resources as collateral
in case of non-payment so what's the
problem according to many the problem is
that China grants these loans knowing
that they will not be repaid with the
aim of gaining control of a multitude of
natural resources and something similar
happens at the political level
governments that depend on Chinese money
always support China in international
forums this is what is known as the debt
trap and is summarized in the fact that
theoretically China has been granting
loans to African countries not so much
for economic benefit but above all for
political benefit for example it has
already already obtained preferential
access to Natural Resources but also
military bases and support in
international organizations such as the
UN according to this Theory China does
not care whether African countries can
pay their debts or not in fact the
weaker the country's finances are the
more bargaining power the Asian giant
would have not only that but many argue
that after China's involvement the
economy of many African countries
ultimately suffers and so China would
have flooded Africa with a very
attractive debt rested mineral resources
and political concessions from them and
when they have succeeded they simply
leave the continent leaving the
countries in which they have intervened
exhausted and depleted now does this
Theory really make sense well I'm sorry
to disappoint you but not really this
theory of Chinese colonialism is
widespread in the media and even if it
has some truth to it everything
indicates that it does not hold up nor
is it as straightforward as it seems
much less is it a major problem for
African countries in fact do you want a
groundbreaking fact China is abandoning
Africa indeed China has been bypassing
Africa and its investments in the region
for years since 2016 the Asian giant has
been increasingly cutting ties with
African countries it has gone from
lending nearly $30 billion in a single
year to less than $5 billion by 2020 for
some reason beijing's strategy with
African resources seems to be coming to
an end the question is why well listen
up but before one thing China remains an
ever expanding Powerhouse moving at an
impressive Pace to consolidate its
position as a world leader it is highly
likely that industry will increasingly
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you a poisoned
gift you see when we say that China
makes a loan to an African country we
don't have to imagine XI jingping
extending a w of bills what's more the
loan money often does not even come
directly from China what usually happens
is that an investment project is
proposed in Africa such as a road then a
Chinese Bank finances a Chinese company
state-owned or partially state-owned
that participates in the construction of
that road and then the African
governments pay for the road including
the interest on the loan if you think
about it this has many advantages for
Beijing since the money it lends to
African projects is directly reinvested
in Chinese companies that carry out the
work nevertheless let me be clear
companies working on African projects
are losing more and more money for
example a group of Chinese companies
involved in construction has lost 30% of
its Revenue in Africa since 2015 but if
you have any doubts let me give you a
more precise case the Haman to port in
Sri Lanka a project in which China
contributed more than 1.3 billion this
port turned out to be an absolute
failure with losses that in some years
have been 10 times greater than the
revenues the outcome was that Sri Lanka
was unable to pay for the investment and
as a result many media Outlets headlined
that China expropriated the port and
built a military base however the
reality was much less conspiratorial
after the default what happened was that
China took 70% of the port's revenues
for 99 years in exchange for an
additional $1 billion in other words
China was left with the revenue from a
dysfunctional Port that was barely
making any money there was really no
plan for Chinese control and domination
of Sri Lanka and let me ask you did the
Asian giant and its companies really
gain from this this operation well
hardly and the worst thing is that this
type of operation is
commonplace according to a study out of
40 loans that China made to African
countries and that these countries have
not been able to repay only six
continued as if nothing had happened the
rest were either forgiven deterred or
renegotiated in other words China did
not really come out ahead with this
whole flashing of the cash the new
Mammoth macro investments in
infrastructure are turning out to be
huge Bottomless Pits of Chinese money
which perhaps explains why the Chinese
companies involved are increasingly
taking out insurance against debt
default rising from cing 30% at the
start of the project to 60% on average
today but as if that were not enough the
new Silk Road projects give rise to many
more corruption scandals than other
Chinese projects we are talking about
figures of 26% compared to less than 10%
they are also five times more likely to
commit accounting tricks and what is
perhaps more relevant a new Silk Road
Project is 10% more likely to
overestimate its potential profitability
and remember when Chinese companies used
to go to Africa to work directly on Mega
projects well it seems that the more
these companies get involved in Africa's
Mammoth projects the more likely it is
that they will end up going wrong in
other words Chinese companies have
proven rather unproductive in the
Forgotten continent in fact projects
carried out by Chinese companies are
four times more likely to suffer from
serious problems such as chronic
corruption than projects involving
native African companies of course this
is not to say that the Chinese are
stupid or anything like that it is to be
expected that the projects in which they
are not involved will be much smaller
and safer in other words perhaps Chinese
companies have so far targeted much
larger projects than they could manage
it is for this reason that there is a
term that has been repeated at every
Silk Road meeting in recent years Shia a
May small and beautiful shying away from
large Mega projects and F focusing on
smaller costeffective infrastructure but
of course there is another factor to
take into account here Africa's economy
is completely paralyzed this makes it
even more difficult for Chinese
Investments to
succeed many countries in Africa have
experienced a whole lost decade since
2014 mainly due to a drop in commodity
prices subsaharan Africa's GDP per
capita has fallen by more than 10% in
fact it is reasonable to think that if
there is one great beneficiary of the
silk Road it is precisely the African
continent there is a very broad academic
consensus that lending money to African
governments generally has a positive
effect on growth in these countries so
the real Theory would instead be the
opposite China helps African countries
and often loses out although it also
gains access to natural resources and
certain concessions and political favors
in any case it is also important to make
clear the magnitude of the issue because
in reality African countries are not as
indebted to the Chinese as it may seem
put another way yes China is the largest
lender in Africa but this sentence has a
catch to begin with 60% of debt of
subsaharan countries is domestic in
other words countries have mostly
indebted themselves to their own
citizens not to foreign countries
meanwhile the fact that China is the
largest bilateral lender does not mean
that it lends more than all other
lenders combined basically because many
loans in Africa are made by multilateral
organizations such as the IMF the World
Bank or the Paris Club and their
combined presence is greater and so
China actually accounts for less than 6%
of the total public debt of these
countries which at the end of the day
means that the theory of China's control
of Africa is more an exaggeration than
anything else and China's abandonment of
Africa is perhaps the strongest proof of
the unprofitability of its Mega projects
but at this point it is now your turn do
you think that China invested in Africa
with hidden interests has the investment
dropped because of Africa or because of
China what can we expect from the new
project that will come in the next few
years you can leave me your answers down
in the comments and as always don't
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