Bitcoin: $90,000 In 2024
Summary
TLDRThe script discusses Bitcoin's approach to a significant target price near $72,000, supported by meta signal setups and HPDR analysis. It suggests a potential breakout from the $60,000 to $70,000 consolidation phase, with the median HPDR at $71,200 aligning with the target. The video also touches on the historical tendency of Bitcoin to close positively on Mondays and the possibility of a bullish pattern confirmation. The speaker anticipates a decisive movement in the coming weeks, with technical indicators hinting at an upward trajectory.
Takeaways
- 🚀 Bitcoin is approaching a significant target price of around $72,000, which is part of a larger meta signal setup from early July.
- 🎯 Targets one and two have already been met, and the focus is now on the short-term and medium-term analysis, especially in relation to the HPDR (Histogram Price and Volume Relationship).
- 📉 The HPDR analysis suggests that Bitcoin is likely to test its median line, currently at $71,200, which aligns closely with the target from the meta signal setup.
- 🔄 A break above the median on a weekly closing basis could catalyze the next major breakout for Bitcoin, potentially ending the four-month consolidation period around $60,000 to $70,000.
- 📍 If the breakout does not occur, there's a possibility of a pullback to a higher low, possibly around $62,500, which is the bottom end of the 382 level.
- 📈 The HPDR is showing signs of a potential upward movement as the histogram is about to cross into positive territory, favoring a break above the current resistance.
- 🌟 Mondays have historically been strong for Bitcoin, with a 66-67% probability of closing positively and an average positive return of over 3.5%.
- 📊 The script also mentions a descending broadening wedge pattern, which, if confirmed by a breakout above June highs (around $72,000), could imply a target as high as $90,000.
- 📈 Weekly momentum indicators are suggesting an upside continuation, with the 5-day Jewel and 5-day RSI showing bullish signals, and the weekly RSI approaching the bullish control zone.
- 📅 The script anticipates significant price action within the next 10 days, with a higher probability of a breakout occurring within the first 5 days of this period.
- 📝 The speaker also promotes a crypto school with a sign-up deadline approaching, indicating it's a time-sensitive opportunity for interested individuals.
Q & A
What is the current status of Bitcoin in relation to its target numbers?
-Bitcoin is nearing its target number three, which is just under $72,000. This comes after target numbers one and two have already been met.
What major meta signal setup is being discussed in the script?
-The script discusses a meta signal setup that fired off about a week and a half ago, which is closely related to Bitcoin's current trajectory and its approach towards the target numbers.
What is the significance of the median in the HPDR analysis?
-In the HPDR analysis, the median is a significant level that Bitcoin is being magnetized towards. A test of this median, currently at $71,200, is likely in the coming weeks, which aligns with the target number three from the meta signal setup.
What does a break above the median in the HPDR analysis imply for Bitcoin?
-A break above the median in the HPDR analysis, specifically a weekly closure above the median, is likely to catalyze the next real breakout for Bitcoin, potentially ending the four-month consolidation around the $60,000 to $70,000 region.
What is the potential downside if Bitcoin does not close above the median?
-If Bitcoin does not close above the median, there is a possibility that it could come back down for a higher low, possibly around $62,500, which is the bottom end of the 382 level.
What is the significance of Monday in the context of Bitcoin's trading patterns?
-Monday has been identified as the most likely day to close positively from open, with a 66-67% probability. This has been validated with historical data, suggesting that a positive close on Monday could push Bitcoin towards new highs.
What is the Monday strategy and how does it perform historically?
-The Monday strategy involves opening a position at 00 UTC on Monday and closing it at 10:00 a.m. UTC on Tuesday. Historically, this strategy has a winning probability of just above 51% and an average winning trade of about 3.5%.
What is the descending broadening wedge pattern mentioned in the script?
-The descending broadening wedge is a technical pattern marked by the same highs followed by descending lows on declining volume. This pattern is not confirmed until a breakout above the highs of June, which is about $72,000.
What is the potential target if Bitcoin confirms the weekly close above the median HPDR?
-If Bitcoin confirms the weekly close above the median HPDR, the top side of the HPDR on the weekly, which is currently at $86,000, could be a target. This could also be the first week Bitcoin closes above the median since April.
What are the implications of Bitcoin's 5-day and weekly momentum indicators?
-The 5-day and weekly momentum indicators are showing positive signs. The 5-day Jewel is continuing with its upside momentum, and the 5-day RSI is reaching for the bullish control zone. The weekly momentum is also expected to continue to the upside, suggesting a bullish trend.
Outlines
🚀 Bitcoin's Approach to Major Target Amidst Meta Signal Setup
The video discusses Bitcoin's movement towards its third target, which was set off by a meta signal at the beginning of July. The target is close to $72,000, while the first two targets have already been met. The speaker analyzes Bitcoin's trajectory, noting its alignment with the median of the HPDR analysis on a weekly time frame, currently at $71,200. The video suggests that a weekly close above this median could trigger a significant breakout from the $60,000 to $70,000 consolidation phase. However, until this happens, there's a possibility of a pullback to around $62,500. The speaker also touches on the historical performance of Bitcoin on Mondays, suggesting a high probability of a positive close, which could push Bitcoin towards new highs.
📊 Analyzing Bitcoin's Patterns and Potential Breakout
This paragraph delves into the technical analysis of Bitcoin's price action, highlighting a descending broadening wedge pattern that could lead to a breakout above $72,000, with an implied target of $90,000. The speaker also discusses the potential for a weekly close above the median HPDR, which is currently at $86,000, and the significance of Bitcoin maintaining above this level for a sustained bullish trend. The discussion includes the possibility of a pullback to set a higher low before another attempt at breaking out, and the importance of the 5-day Jewel and RSI indicators showing positive momentum. The paragraph concludes with an anticipation of a bullish engulfing pattern confirmation if Bitcoin closes above $72,000, and the importance of the monthly momentum turning positive for continued upside movement.
📈 Upcoming Crypto School Enrollment and Bitcoin's Positive Outlook
The final paragraph wraps up the video with a note on the potential for a breakout in August, contingent on Bitcoin's performance in the remaining days of the trading month. The speaker encourages viewers to sign up for the second cohort of a crypto school, which is about to start in a few days, emphasizing that it's free to join with an exchange account and no credit card required. The video concludes with well-wishes for the viewers and an expression of hope to see them in the next video.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bitcoin
💡Meta signal
💡Target number three
💡HPDR analysis
💡Median
💡Breakout
💡Confluence
💡Magnetized
💡Bullish
💡Descending broadening wedge
💡Bullish engulfing
Highlights
Bitcoin is approaching a significant target price near $72,000, based on a meta signal setup from mid-July.
Targets one and two have already been met, indicating the current target is within reach.
The HPDR analysis shows Bitcoin is being attracted towards the median price of $71,200, aligning with the meta signal setup's target three.
A weekly close above the median could catalyze the next breakout for Bitcoin, potentially breaking the consolidation pattern of the last four months.
There is a possibility of Bitcoin pulling back to around $62,500 for a higher low before a breakout.
The HPDR is about to cross into positive territory, favoring a break above the current median.
Monday has historically been a strong day for Bitcoin to close positively, with a 66-67% probability.
A positive Monday close could push Bitcoin towards new highs, potentially reaching $7,700.
Descending broadening wedge pattern suggests a potential breakout above $72,000, with an implied target of $90,000.
A weekly close above the median HPDR could set a new target of $86,000 for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has not closed above the median since April, indicating a significant bullish breakout if it happens.
The 5-day Jewel and RSI are showing positive momentum, suggesting a bullish control zone is near.
A bullish engulfing pattern is forming on the monthly chart, which could be confirmed with a close above $72,000.
The weekly momentum is turning positive, which could indicate an upward trend continuation.
The 5-day momentum is reclaiming the moving average, suggesting an imminent breakout.
The monthly momentum is also turning positive, reinforcing the potential for an August breakout.
The crypto school's second cohort is opening for registration, with the next live stream in three days.
Transcripts
Bitcoin is nearing Target number three
off of one of the major meta signal
setups that fired off about a week and a
half ago now or sorry actually back
around the beginning of July and in this
case it is very very close now to a
Target that I uh quite literally did not
think was going to be happening or at
least in this time frame which is just
under 72,000 bucks obviously Target
number one and target number two have
been met so in today's video we're going
be extrapolating upon that case in the
more shortterm and medium- term
definitely following up on the hpdr
analysis that we looking at over the
past few days as well and kind of
fitting that into the overall picture
that we have been looking at on this
channel and continue to follow up on the
just general trajectory of Bitcoin here
as it does approach 70,000 bucks yet
again so first things first let's go
over to the hpdr analysis we can see
right here on the weekly time frame for
the hpdr that Bitcoin is using or not
necessarily using but is uh being
magnetized towards the median which is
this sort of uh squiggly line right here
that my cursor is currently tracing uh
that we did say was likely coming into
the last couple weeks off of the
volatility compression which continues
to compress right here so very very
likely we do see a test of this median
probably this week maybe next week in
this case it is officially at 71,200
which is very much in alignment with
that Target number three from The Meta
signal setup based off of uh the 8h hour
setup which is about 71950 so you know I
mean yes they are very very similar to
each other it is 300 different uh $300
difference off but remember that this
this setup fired off when Bitcoin was
trading at like 50 7,100 so this was
quite some time ago so to see these
things start to line up naturally that
is uh good Confluence now of course that
does imply that any sort of a break
above and when I say break I mean a
closure on a weekly basis above the
median here will very likely catalyze
the next real breakout for Bitcoin and
when I say real breakout I mean like a
breakout that has been taking the last
four months of consolidation around this
$60 to $70,000 region so until that
officially happens I don't think it's to
be getting like super super excited in
terms of like immediate volatile massive
breakout but of course you know it is
well it's it's right there it's right
there it's right there until then until
that is actually closed above there is
still a possibility that Bitcoin could
come back down for perhaps one more try
for a higher low in this case I would
say anywhere around 62,500 the bottom
end of the 382 level right here would be
fair game but for right now obviously a
test towards a medium is Mo is most
likely in these next week or two worth
the price action and technically
speaking just based off of the way that
the HP is positioned right here which is
about to cross over into positive
territory you know that does certainly
favor um an actual break above that
region thus suggesting that you know uh
a continuation in August is more likely
than a pullback but of course until that
actually officially happens nothing is
confirmed it's just you know becoming
more and more likely here moving on from
there of course I do want to follow up
on the Monday strategy Monday has been
the most likely day to close POS
positively from open a closure for
Bitcoin also one of the highest positive
return dates uh days as well um with
over 3 and half% on those positive
closing days of course contrast that
with the negative days which is uh
losing an average of 2% but you know
sorry a lot of caffeine coming up uh but
Monday having a 66 spot 67% probability
close positively since this year began
um looking like it will be validated yet
again here let's see from the current
open what about 3 and 1.2% would look
like and that would actually put Bitcoin
on new highs on the day uh closer
towards 7,700 if it goes exactly for
that average of course there's variance
within that average But ultimately it
wouldn't you know be kind of we would
look at that as uh again if Bitcoin
closed positively as you know somewhere
around there is actually rather likely
of course to the downside we do have uh
you know a nice range in company this
while I do think it's a little bit less
likely that would put Bitcoin down
around yesterday's low about 67,000
bucks now of course we did put this into
an actual setup format where we
literally just created a setup here
using the crown Quant automation service
this guy right here um to back test what
it would look like if you literally just
opened Along on Monday at 00 UTC and
then closed it Tuesday at 10: a.m. UTC
and we found that over the past eight
years of History here now this has been
a winning strategy is it winning every
time no obviously not it's actually just
above a 51% probability to have a
winning trade doing that strategy but
but what's more important about this is
the profit factor and out of
447 um uh total closed trades
well it has returned a nice positive
amount in the in the in the performance
summary right here an average winning
trade of about 3 and a half% so that is
very much in alignment with these stats
that we see from this pain over here so
you know I do think that this Monday is
probably going to be closing positively
and so you know expecting somewhere
around you know 70 70,500 to 71,000
bucks is not out of the question it's
it's within the realm of of of likely
possibilities actually um of course on
the other end it gives us some
interesting information as well if it
were closed negatively uh we do have the
average losing trade which is about 3%
so so of course on the other end uh you
know we would have a sort of objective
way of looking at what the likely
downside is for today but you know with
the way that Monday has kind of opened
up it's looking like upside is is
definitely more likely for today anyways
moving on from there I do want to get
into of course a little Twitter post
that I made earlier for the pattern
enjoyers of this world of which I don't
really consider myself of that variety
but you know to be fair there is a
descending broading wedge right in here
and this is marked off by of course the
same highs essentially followed by these
descending lows right here on declining
volume and when we see something like
that yeah that is technically a pattern
it wouldn't necessarily be confirmed
until you actually break out above the
highs of June which is
about 72,000 bucks on a closing basis
and then technically speaking there is
an implied Target actually all the way
up to 90,000 bucks um I do believe that
might even correlate yes that might even
correlate very well with the weekly over
here now if Bitcoin does confirm the
weekly close above the median
hpdr you know the top side of the hpdr
on the weekly is going to likely be a
Target which
is 86,000 bucks as of right now that can
obviously move up as well and also this
potentially could be the first week that
we even see Bitcoin close above the
medium which has not happened basically
since April so uh we do expect that you
know if and when Bitcoin does uh
actually want to threaten a real bullish
breakout um that Bitcoin will continue
above the median so that' be like the
next sort of major boss if you will
until then there is still a possibility
of a of a pullback could could very
easily look something like this I guess
uh where it spikes up into here comes
back down sets in a higher low you know
something like that and then tries again
definitely possible um I suppose that
will likely have clearity on the
situation maybe this week probably by
next week if there is going to be a
breakout we probably do expect it to
happen sooner rather than later say
within these next couple weeks sooner
obviously better than later um uh but
yes on top of that I believe that the
the 5day the 5-day Jewel continues with
its upside momentum here as well so
another green light alongside 5day RSI
which is reaching for the bullish
control Zone it's not quite there just
yet I think the weekly is the same thing
yeah it's reclaiming the moving average
on this one and the weekly Jewel
actually hasn't even turned uh you know
cyan yet which is that sort of upside
posher but very [ __ ] close there um
which I imagine would very likely follow
through on a breakout thus confirming
you know real a real resolution of this
range again a range that has been in
place for four almost five months
actually let me just count it out um
yeah 1 two 3 four working on month
number five and this month is very close
to being a bullish engulfing at this
point uh very very close
I mean it will be confirmed as a bullish
ENG go if it does close above about
72,000 bucks so got a little bit of work
to do with a couple days left but you
know even just closing like this is
obviously going to be good anything
above that red moving average is going
to be long-term good as that is how all
of our long-term upside markets um
typically continue upwards and onwards
and well I mean I don't think need uh
there needs to be much more said other
than that um I suppose we can get over
here to the weekly momentum uh we can
see that Weekly stoas momentum is going
to officially continue to the upside as
well assuming Bitcoin closes this week
about 59,000 bucks so far so good um the
five day just closed last night as well
for spot price action it's actually
about to reclaim the moving average here
and we'll continue up as long as
bitcoin's about
so I would say sooner rather than later
if this one is going to play out
actually when I look at the 5day yeah we
would expect within the next 10 days of
price action probably within the next 5
days actually from today so between now
and Friday would be the would you know
would be a higher probability and then
you could kind of extend that another 5
days I suppose if it doesn't break out
and it's still kind of hanging around
here you know lingering around this
$70,000 region but um yeah it's going to
be some some big closures coming up we
got the monthly uh as well and monthly
momentum is about to turn up again as
long as bitcoin's above 68,69
looking good Bitcoin looking good um
with just two and a half days left to go
in this trading month so knock on would
but uh anything anything here or higher
is going to look very very very very
like the breakout in um in August so
I'll end the video on that note as
always I want to wish everyone the best
the best I do want to let you know
actually once again that there are just
a couple days left to sign up for the
second cohort of the crypto school here
it starts uh or sorry the next live
stream is on Thursday in 3 days um and
then after that I believe there is no
more signups for this cohort and we do
not have a third cohort planned as of
right now um so if you're interested
check it out uh it is in the link in the
description below it's also free to join
with an exchange account no credit card
required as the statement here suggest
and well I'll leave you on that note as
always I want to wish you the best best
take care much love and see you
hopefully next time
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