You Need to Know this *ASAP*.. (Tesla Stock Investors)
Summary
TLDRThe video discusses Tesla's stock performance amidst a broader tech market decline, focusing on the impact of semiconductor issues and geopolitical tensions. It also previews upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies like TSMC and Netflix, which could influence market trends. Additionally, the video features a taste test of Tesla's new tequila and explores the potential for Tesla to lead in real-world AI applications.
Takeaways
- 🚗 Tesla experienced a rough day with its stock declining, but the semiconductor sector faced a more significant downturn.
- 📉 The Russell index, which has been performing well lately, also saw poor performance, indicating a broader market decline.
- 🔍 TSMC and Netflix are set to report earnings tomorrow, which could influence the market's direction and impact Tesla's stock.
- 📊 The script discusses the technicals of Tesla's stock, suggesting that the current situation may not be as negative as it appears if certain support levels hold.
- 🍹 The video includes a segment on Tesla tequila, highlighting its packaging and the host's experience tasting it.
- 🌐 Geopolitical tensions and potential policy changes, particularly around semiconductor exports to China, are causing uncertainty in the market.
- 💼 The Biden administration's and Trump's potential policies on semiconductors are both seen as restrictive, adding to market volatility.
- 📈 Despite the day's downturn, some see the pre-earnings drop in tech stocks as a positive, as it lowers expectations and could set the stage for a positive reaction to earnings.
- 🏛️ There is speculation about potential changes in the U.S. presidential race, which could introduce further uncertainty to the markets.
- 💡 Elon Musk's comments position Tesla as a real-world AI company, suggesting that its focus on applying AI in practical ways could be a significant driver for its future success.
- 📈 The video suggests that Tesla's stock could see significant upside in the coming months if the market begins to value companies applying real-world AI more highly.
Q & A
Why did Tesla have a rough day in the stock market?
-Tesla had a rough day due to a broader decline in tech stocks and semiconductor companies. The market was impacted by concerns over earnings and geopolitical issues.
Which other tech companies were affected by the market decline?
-Other tech companies affected included semiconductor companies like ASML, which declined over 11%, and big tech names that have been performing well recently.
What are the potential impacts of TSMC and Netflix reporting their earnings?
-TSMC and Netflix's earnings reports could drive the next market move, either higher or lower. Their results will influence market sentiment and potentially affect other big tech stocks, including Tesla.
What is the significance of the recent decline for semiconductor companies?
-The decline in semiconductor companies, including ASML, was partly due to the Biden administration considering new rules to restrict exporting critical chip-making equipment to China, which significantly affects companies like ASML.
How might political developments influence the semiconductor industry?
-Political developments, such as the Biden administration's and potential future administrations' policies on semiconductor exports, create uncertainty and could impact the industry's long-term prospects.
What was the bad news mentioned in the video regarding the semiconductor sector?
-The bad news included ASML's significant decline, geopolitical issues affecting semiconductor exports, and mixed earnings reports from companies like ASML.
What was the good news mentioned in the video regarding the stock market?
-The good news is that the recent decline in tech stocks might have lowered expectations for upcoming earnings, potentially reducing downside risks if earnings are not as bad as feared.
What role does Netflix play in the tech earnings season?
-Netflix is one of the first big tech companies to report earnings and can set the tone for the broader tech sector. Its results can cause a significant sympathy reaction in other big tech stocks.
What is the significance of the S&P 500 not experiencing a 2% drop in 351 trading days?
-This long streak without a significant drop indicates a period of low volatility and sustained market strength, which is notable given historical market behavior.
How is Elon Musk's view of Tesla as a 'real-world AI company' important?
-Elon Musk's view highlights Tesla's focus on AI-driven products like FSD (Full Self-Driving) and Optimus robots, which he believes will be major revenue drivers and could lead to significant stock appreciation.
What are the technical levels of significance for Tesla stock?
-The key technical level for Tesla is around $226-$227. Staying above this level is seen as a positive sign, while falling below it could indicate broader market issues.
What might cause Tesla stock to rally after its earnings report?
-If Tesla stock experiences selling and consolidation before its earnings report, any positive surprises or even in-line results could trigger a rally, especially if expectations are lowered beforehand.
Outlines
🚗 Tesla's Stock and Tech Market Decline
The video discusses Tesla's stock performance, noting a rough day for the company along with other tech giants and the Russell index. The focus shifts to the semiconductor industry, with TSMC and Netflix's upcoming earnings reports set to influence market movements. The presenter also mentions Tesla's tequila, highlighting its packaging and taste, and discusses the potential impact of geopolitical tensions and policy changes on the semiconductor industry, including restrictions on exports to China.
📉 Semiconductor Industry Challenges and Market Expectations
This paragraph delves into the semiconductor industry's challenges, particularly the potential long-term issues with chip equipment exports to China due to the Biden administration's policies. The impact of these policies on companies like ASML is discussed, along with the mixed earnings results. The video also touches on the potential for increased restrictions under a Trump presidency, emphasizing the market's aversion to uncertainty. The presenter then contrasts this with the positive aspect of lowered expectations for tech earnings, suggesting that a decline in stock prices might be a precursor to more stable market conditions.
📈 Earnings Season and Market Volatility
The video addresses the upcoming earnings season, focusing on TSMC and Netflix, and their potential to set the tone for tech stock performance. The presenter discusses the broader market implications of these earnings, including the possibility of a market short squeeze and the potential for increased short positioning. The video also speculates on the potential for a 'gray swan' event, such as Biden dropping out of the race, and its impact on market volatility. The discussion includes the historical context of market performance and the current state of credit spreads, suggesting a potential unsustainable rally in the stock market.
🌐 Geopolitical Tensions and Tech Stock Performance
This paragraph discusses the potential impact of geopolitical tensions on tech stocks, particularly in relation to Taiwan and the semiconductor industry. The presenter highlights the uncertainty created by potential policy changes under different presidential administrations and how this could affect the market. The video also touches on the positive sentiment towards Elon Musk and Tesla from Trump's vice president, JD Vance, and the broader implications of Tesla being viewed as a real-world AI company, with FSD and Optimus as key revenue drivers.
📊 Tesla Stock Outlook and Market Realizations
The final paragraph provides an outlook on Tesla's stock, suggesting that the market may soon recognize the value of companies applying real-world AI, like Tesla. The presenter predicts a potential surge in Tesla's stock price as the market shifts its focus from GPU providers to AI application companies. The discussion includes the importance of Tesla's upcoming earnings and the potential for a positive reaction if expectations are low. The video concludes with a call to action for viewers to share their thoughts on the market's direction, Tesla's potential, and the upcoming earnings reports.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Tesla
💡Tech stocks
💡Russell Index
💡Semiconductor companies
💡Earnings reports
💡NASDAQ
💡TSMC
💡Option activity
💡Geopolitics
💡Short interest
💡Real-world AI
Highlights
Tesla and other big tech stocks experienced a sharp decline, with the Russell index also performing poorly.
TSMC, Netflix, and other companies are set to report earnings, which could influence market movements.
The technical analysis of Tesla's stock will be discussed, including current market conditions and potential future trends.
Option activity and positioning in Tesla stock will be examined, along with insights into big money's stance on the market following the decline.
The worst day for the NASDAQ since 2022 is attributed to geopolitical tensions and semiconductor industry challenges.
Tesla tequila is introduced, with a detailed description of its packaging and a personal tasting experience.
Tesla's stock decline of about 3% is considered mild compared to the broader semiconductor industry's struggles.
The Biden administration is reportedly considering restrictions on exporting chip equipment to China, affecting companies like ASML.
ASML's earnings report shows a decline in profitability and revenue, contributing to the stock's 11% drop.
Donald Trump's comments on Taiwan and potential continuation of Biden's semiconductor policies add to market uncertainty.
Markets are pricing in a Trump presidency, which could lead to more restrictions on GPU sales and increased industry uncertainty.
Semiconductor stocks like Qualcomm, ARM, and Nvidia are down significantly, setting a lower bar for upcoming earnings reports.
TSMC's earnings are expected to set the tone for the broader tech market, with implications for Tesla's stock.
The potential for a gray swan event, such as Biden stepping down, could cause substantial market selling due to increased uncertainty.
Tesla's stock performance is analyzed in the context of broader market trends and potential short-term and long-term impacts.
Elon Musk's statement that Tesla should be viewed as a real-world AI company, with FSD and Optimus as main revenue drivers, is highlighted.
The importance of real-world AI applications in the market is discussed, with Tesla positioned as a leading contender in this space.
The potential for Tesla's stock to see significant growth if the market shifts focus to real-world AI applications is explored.
The upcoming earnings reports for TSMC and Netflix are identified as key events that could influence Tesla's stock performance.
Transcripts
so it's safe to say Tesla had a pretty
rough day today and it was not just
Tesla it was basically all of your big
Tech you even did have the Russell that
did poorly as well and the Russell has
been on fire lately now we'll briefly go
over the reason for this sharp decline
today specifically in semiconductor
companies but on that note we have tsmc
that reports earnings tomorrow as well
as Netflix and that will drive the next
move for our markets For Better or For
Worse higher or lower and this will also
impact Tesla's stock now here in this
video we will also take a look at the
technicals for Tesla where we currently
are if things look good if things don't
look good I'll give you my insights and
we will also take a look at the option
activity and the positioning in Tesla
stock today not to mention we will take
a look at what big money is saying about
our markets following this decline which
in fact was the worst day for the NASDAQ
since 2022 but first before we do that
we're going to have a drink the Tesla
tequila it's finally here been waiting
for about 2 months for this moment and
it's kind of hard to see I'm not sure if
you guys will be able to see it it it
says Tesla Mescal basically everything
it says on the bottle right here on the
box with the Tesla symbol and the box
kind of reminds you of like an iPhone
box to some extent like very sturdy you
could you know put something in here or
whatnot but go ahead and open it up this
is where the good stuff starts boom box
like that pretty uh fancy looking got
your little stand oh yes we're going to
try some of this
too but boom Oh it's backwards kind of
like the last you know bottle and and in
stand that we got from the last round of
Tesla tequila back in I believe that was
2021 but it's a nice foam so you can put
it straight back in there which uh which
I do like because some people are going
to drink it some people are not going to
drink it some people are going to just
leave it in the box and the bottle is
like soft it's almost like a soft like
suede almost like a soft rubber which uh
which it's not rubber but it kind of
feels like it so we're going to go ahead
and uh crack this open I'm just going to
twist it
here all right let's
see oh that's a cork did you guys hear
that okay so I don't really have like a
shot glass or anything I I'm not a huge
uh uh liquor Drinker I I just don't
really drink liquor so I guess I don't
have any uh shot glasses but get a a
little pour on that oh it's
clear okay it's fully
clear I spilled some of it on me so
that's awesome okay perfect see you just
push it back down in there I thought it
would
screw like twist in
there I guess you kind of just put it in
there it actually does take a little bit
of strength to uh get it in there
right perfect
back on the stand she goes and it's
going to go up there but I think I'm
going to move the stand so I'm just
going to
wait and it is kind of
delicate for what it's worth I think I
might have it in there
backwards yeah I think that's the way
it's supposed to
go okay let's see
[Music]
yeah not a big liquor
Drinker
uh not going to lie it is very strong um
partially smooth it's not as smooth as
as it would expect it's it's smoother
than like in 1800 Lion's Edition here
which I haven't opened that bottle and
I've had it for almost a year now but
it's very
sweet it's kind of different
like a
sweet I don't know like like Fruity
almost maybe black
licorice I don't know you could
definitely taste the uh Agave Agave I
don't really know how to say that
word yeah very interesting let me know
what you think about Tesla's new Tesla
tequila if you have tried it and gotten
yours down below in the comment section
but with that said let's go over
everything you need to know about
Tesla's stock our markets and even what
to expect tomorrow now as I mentioned in
the beginning of this video Tesla stock
had a pretty rough day today but in the
grand scope of things in the grand scope
of what happened today to especially
semiconductors Tesla's about 3% decline
really doesn't look that bad it could
have been a lot worse now whether or not
things get worse from here for Tesla I
think largely comes down to tomorrow and
I have good and bad news what would you
like first perhaps let's start with the
bad news and what happened today that
caused asml to decline over 11% on their
earnings and what happened with your Geo
politics so the bad news is these
problems with the semiconductors may not
go away for quite a long time it was
reported today that the Biden administr
ation is considering using a wide
sweeping rule to clamp down on companies
exporting their critical chipm equipment
to China which is asml to a te asml gets
about 50% of their revenue from China
alone and that's one reason why asml did
decline by 11% but as sml's earnings
were kind of a mixed bag they were less
profitable this quarter than they were
in the same quarter last year they
brought in less Revenue this quarter
than they did last year now asml sells
big machines that take like 18 months to
build so they only sold like 50 of them
last quarter but I mean they are
hundreds of millions of dollars a piece
they are massive pieces of equipment
nonetheless the earnings
were okay not great not bad and the
stock was priced for almost Perfection
and that's kind of the same thing that's
you know priced into Nvidia arm and all
of your other semiconductor names now
the other bit of bad news is this Donald
Trump said Taiwan should pay the US for
defense in an interview with Bloomberg
Business Week published on Tuesday and
there were also um similar reports that
that Trump would kind of follow the same
Biden um policies on semiconductors in
general so it looks like no matter who
is the President coming in
2025 you're you're going to have more
restrictions on gpus and where they can
be sold to what companies and that's a
longer term negative for the overall
industry and it really just creates more
uncertainty as well if Trump is now the
guy that is expected to win all of the
polls you're looking at are pricing in a
trump presidency the markets have been
pricing in a trump presidency for a
while and after the comments Trump made
last night um at the Republican National
Convention it's it's more uncertain what
that policy framework would actually
look like Carl from CNBC shared this
from Morgan Stanley's trading desk quote
the Trump policy on semis semis is
likely not that different from the Biden
Biden Administration which has been
aggressive on AI chip restrictions and
Nvidia component shipments to howi I
think I say that right howi ho looks
like Hawaii howi and domestic subsidies
via the chips act but the approach is
quite different as Biden has implemented
restrictions via clear communicated
Department of Commerce guidelines versus
Trump's loser approach which creates
more
uncertainty unpredictability and
volatility for semi stocks even if the
policies are similar oh I read that
wrong it's looser policy approach not
loser policy approach but basically what
they're saying is Biden and the current
Administration has been long in advance
kind of televising to the markets what
they plan to do as far as these GPU
restrictions Trump on the other hand may
just come out one blue sunny afternoon
and say yeah you're no longer allowed to
sell those components to that country or
company and that does in and of itself
create more uncertainty and trust me the
markets can handle bad news but what
they can't handle uncertainty I say this
all the time and it's very relevant
especially on a day like today all of
this was the bad news are you ready for
the good news the good news is pretty
straightforward Qualcomm is down 88.3%
marll is down almost 10% arm is down 9%
Nvidia is down almost 7% today asml is
down 11% why is this good news while
heading into earnings you've already
started to lower the bar so as I've been
concerned about earnings because these
stocks are trading at all-time highs or
near alltime highs they're not anymore
now they just got a 5 to 10% discount
before those earnings that in and of
itself is a positive for broader markets
when you actually start to get these
earnings one of which is from tsmc so
instead of trotting into tomorrow
morning's earnings with tsmc thinking
everything's just fine and dandy and you
know up in the air whether or not
earnings are going to be good or bad or
what kind of reaction we're going to see
now if the earnings are not as great
perhaps you've already priced in a lot
of that from today and that I would say
is a little bit of good news going
forward into tomorrow now that doesn't
mean we're all fine that doesn't mean
tsmc can report bad earnings and the
stock will do fine or will do good
that's not what I'm saying but as long
as things are not terrible or okay at
least pretty
good I would expect limited downside in
other words I'm not expecting another
10% down day if tsmc com comes in line
with estimates whereas yesterday if this
selloff did not happen today you
probably would have got a 10% plus
knee-jerk reaction on TSC tsmc's
earnings tomorrow with inline
expectations being met now tomorrow
morning you will have like I said tsmc
noia Cintas Domino's DR Horton Abbott
the Blackstone Group KeyBank and a
couple of others and then tomorrow and
after hours you will also have Netflix
intuitive surgical PPG and some other
Netflix is also one of those companies
that even though has very little
correlation to Microsoft or Tesla or
Google or Amazon it does have a lot of
correlation when it comes down to
earnings Netflix tends to be one of the
first big Tech names to report and even
though Netflix has a totally different
business model than any other big Tech
name if Netflix has good or bad earnings
it does cause a large sympathy reaction
to those other big tech stocks and again
while I think expectations are still too
high for tsmc and Netflix they're not as
high now as they were just yesterday as
I have also talked about we have until
the end of August for Biden to get the
Democratic nomination or to actually
step out of the race this could be a
potential gray Swan event it's something
we all know that's possible that seems
like a pretty low likelihood right now
that could cause some pretty substantial
selling in markets the reason for this
is because it would create more
uncertainty um if you know let's say
Camila Harris were to step up if if she
would be president what would her policy
um preference look like we just don't
know to some extent I think you're
seeing less election volatility now
because we already well we have Joe
Biden in office now we had Trump what's
really new not a lot so I think to that
point you might see more election
volatility come out if Biden did step
down the reason I'm saying this is
because this news just came out about 15
minutes ago Biden says he will consider
dropping out of the race if a medical
condition was diagnosed by doctors and
you're starting to see more signs of a
potential step down coming including
Nancy Pelosi that is apparently calling
around to see who the replacement for
Biden would be and as I have reported in
other videos this is the biggest
outperformance of small cap stocks over
large cap stocks over a 5-day period in
history with data starting in
1978 and as I have mentioned before
what's unusual about this is these large
out performances typically occur after a
bare market like right when you're
coming out of one you tend to see small
caps really outperform the S&P literally
almost every single time in history that
is what has happened now the P's at
alltime highs or was at alltime highs
the at the same time the Russell is
massively outperforming as I also
reported in other videos the short
interest on the Russell the SNP the
NASDAQ has all went down like 30% in the
last couple of days 20 to 30% depending
on what ETF or index you're looking at
and that just shows me there was likely
a broad Market short squeeze that just
took place now when you get short
squeezes like that momentum can be
strong and they can last a while but
when you tend to see that short squeeze
end you tend to get more short
positioning back into the markets and
don't be surprised if that could cause
some downside especially correlating
with this earning season something I
have warned about a couple of times here
on the channel specifically with
semiconductors that are taking it on the
chin today but with tsmc and Netflix
that's going to set the entire mood for
all of your big Tech earnings it's like
the court of law innocent until proven
guilty when it comes to earnings and
especially the first couple you know big
Tech earnings it's guilty until proven
innocent if Netflix and tsmc fall on
earnings the rest of the gang is going
to be grouped in that same category as
they're guilty they're probably going to
have bad earnings as well Brian Dietrich
writes on X today marked 351 trading
days without a 2% drop for the S&P 500
tying the longest streak since pre
Global financial crisis so nonetheless
it has been a long time since we have
really seen any kind of substantial
volatility take a look at what Trump's
vice president JD Vance just said about
Elon Musk this is actually incredible
look Elon and I know each other a little
bit but Elon is actually a great example
of an American entrepreneur who's built
a company but also a company that's
employed a lot of good American workers
if you think about you know Elon Musk is
in some ways a throwback to an older
generation of American entrepreneur he
builds real things he builds cars he
builds rockets and that's I think the of
economy that President Trump wants to
create those are some very favorable
words towards Elon and Tesla let me know
what you think about that down below in
the comment section as Seth golden
writes the S&P has made 38 all-time
highs in 2024 has made 38 all-time highs
in calendar years 12 times previously
every single time the SNP has continued
to make higher highs for the year the
top is not likely in just yet and really
the central thing that I'm paying
attention to is the economy as long as
the economy continues to hold up as long
as we're looking ahead to the FED that
starts to cut rates I think any kind of
correction we do get will likely be met
with new all-time highs Again by the end
of this year fed Waller said today the
FED is getting closer to the time when
cutting the policy rate is warranted
Michael a Gade a CFA on X says Trump is
bearish for Tech few understand this I
actually don't know of this individual
but he does have over
735,000 followers on X now Bank of
America just came out with some very
interesting research they say credit
spreads say the stock rally is
unsustainable flashing the biggest
warning sits the do bubble and you can
see lowquality credit dispersion is the
widest since 1999 through 2022 and
anytime you get these credit spreads
that start to widen especially on the
low quality spreads that tends to be a
sign of a crash coming in markets but
this is again one of those data points
or historical references that we can
look at and say Market should have
already crashed by now but yet stocks
just continue to new all-time highs so I
think we are truly in uncharted waters
here and and that's why I do think every
data point every major earnings will be
important for what happens to broader
markets now the interesting flow
sentiment today over on ortex you have
seen seven orders totaling $1.58 million
in Tesla with a positive order value of
52% the short position remains largely
unchanged at
3.79% Short interest of free float
26.98 billion currently in short
positions and 105 17 million shares that
are currently sold short and it looks
like today you've seen about 800,000
shares that were actually sold short on
net and take a look at this Elon Musk
says Tesla should be viewed as realworld
AI company FSD and Optimus will be the
main Revenue drivers and I think this is
very important very very important
because what I've said for many months
now is right now the markets are all
caught up in the GPU providers the the
enablers of AI they're not at all
focused on the the application of AI the
um applicators of AI it will change
seemingly overnight the markets will
stop paying so much attention to GPU
providers and start looking for
companies that are actually providing
real world AI with a path to grow that
larger because this is kind of like the
dot bubble in the sense of there's a lot
of companies promising things around AI
but who's actually going to create
something that is longlasting and
fundamentally impactful the top
Contender there by far is Tesla and when
the markets do actually start to flip
and start looking at these companies
that are providing real world AI That's
when Tesla will actually see its Nvidia
moment and this is the precise moment
when Tesla's stock will explode if we're
not already at alltime highs by this
point I would expect a
run I mean I if as long as the economy
is doing okay and there's no crash going
on at that time which I imagine there
wouldn't be Tesla stock could well run
into the 6 7 800s maybe as high as
$1,000 upon um this realization I do
think that will take place by the end of
this year the markets will start to look
forward to who's actually applying this
real world AI especially if you start to
see the semiconductors Miss a little bit
here and there but I think 2025 is going
to be a solid year for that and I would
be surprised very surprised like
outright shocked if it did not take
place this year or by 2025 if we're
heading into 2026 and the markets have
still not come to this realization that
you know it really matters who's
deploying real world Ai and if the
hype's not on those companies yeah I
might as well just retire from YouTube
cuz that would be unpre ented so from
that standpoint we could be looking at a
lot of upside for Tesla stock within the
next 6 to 12 months but in the near term
we are not in IM immune to any downside
that we see in
markets we're just not and you see that
today with Tesla stock down about 4% and
the NASDAQ having a very rough day now
specifically the level that you should
only care about for Tesla is around 226
227 as long as we stay above this
long-term downtrending trend line that's
great because Tesla really really reacts
around the technicals so as long as you
stay above that level things are just
fine if you fall under that
unfortunately the markets are probably
going to be in a fullon crash like event
perhaps that's Biden stepping down
perhaps that's something else happening
who exactly knows but that would not be
a great sign if we did break under that
line and also the good news for Tesla is
the more we see this selling
consolidation heading into Tesla
earnings next week the more conditioned
we are for a rally upon those earnings
because I've said in the last couple of
videos if we don't get new products
unveiled on Tesla's earnings Tesla would
probably fall but I said that as Tesla
was in the 250s 260s and briefly in the
270s if if we fall down to like 230
heading into Tesla's earnings I would
expect a very positive reaction even if
we don't get new products unveiled so
what I'm actually explaining here is
price dictates expectations so anytime
you look at a stock that's trading super
low heading into earnings that has been
selling off you don't even have to know
the actual earnings numbers or the
expectations you can just know that
they're very low right and the odds of
an upside surprise are higher if a
Stock's at all-time highs heading into
earnings expectations are at all-time
highs and there's a greater chance of
disappointment same goes for
intermediate rallies between earning or
on shorter time frames like we have seen
recently expectations have risen over
the last couple of weeks but they're
starting to fall again as Tesla stock
has been falling in the past couple of
days so let me know what you think about
this information Down Below in the
comment section is this the start to a
larger crash is Tesla going to crash as
well is this just a simple correction
are we going to buy the dip coming
tomorrow let me know what you think
about this as well as the earnings
coming out tomorrow morning with tsmc
and then Netflix tomorrow in after hours
you guys have a fantastic rest of your
day and I will see you in the next one
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