Prepare Yourself! This Is How Much Gold & Silver You Need - 2024 Update
Summary
TLDRIn this 'Bald Guy Money' episode, the host critiques amateur analysts for overlooking the bullish fundamentals of gold and silver. He highlights the 50-day moving average surpassing the 200-day, indicating a bull market, and gold's performance since 2015, which has outpaced the S&P 500. The host advises focusing on long-term trends rather than daily fluctuations, suggesting that as the market shifts to risk-off, precious metals will surge. He also discusses the importance of having a physical gold and silver stack as a hedge against economic uncertainties, providing a minimum target in troy ounces and addressing the pros and cons of investing in gold and silver ETFs like GLD and SLV.
Takeaways
- 📊 The 50-day moving average price of gold is significantly higher than the 200-day average, indicating a bull market for gold.
- 📈 Gold's performance has been strong since its low in 2015, increasing for nine consecutive years and outperforming the S&P 500 in that period.
- 🌐 The speaker emphasizes focusing on long-term trends rather than short-term volatility in gold and silver prices.
- 📉 Despite recent market highs, there is a suggestion that the stock market may be losing steam, with insiders selling their shares, indicating a potential downturn.
- 🏆 The speaker recommends having a minimum of 5 ounces of gold and 200 ounces of silver as a stacking target to protect against economic uncertainties.
- 💰 The stacking target is said to cover approximately 3.3 months of average American expenses, maintaining its relevance despite inflation.
- 🤔 The speaker questions the current trend of outflows from precious metals ETFs in 2024, suggesting retail investors may be missing an opportunity.
- 📊 The speaker discusses the importance of moving averages and how they can be used to understand market trends in gold and silver.
- 💼 There is a warning about the potential risks of investing in ETFs like GLD and SLV, particularly in the context of a financial system collapse.
- 🏠 The speaker shares personal investment strategies, including using profits from other investments to buy physical gold and silver.
- 👋 The speaker announces an upcoming transition to full-time YouTube content creation and thanks the audience for their support.
Q & A
What is the main topic of the 'Bald Guy Money' video?
-The main topic of the video is the discussion of gold and silver as investment options, focusing on the bullish fundamentals and long-term performance, and not being distracted by short-term volatility.
What does the 50-day moving average price of gold being higher than the 200-day moving average price typically indicate?
-This typically indicates that the market is in a bull market, as it suggests that the short-term average price is higher than the long-term average, which is a bullish signal.
How has the average closing price for gold performed since its bottom in 2015?
-Since its bottom in 2015, the average closing price for gold has increased for nine consecutive years, being up by 90% over that 9-year period.
What is the comparison made between the performance of gold and the S&P 500 over the same 9-year period?
-The comparison shows that gold has increased by 90% over the 9-year period, while the S&P 500 has increased by 148%, indicating that gold has performed well even in a risk-on environment.
What is the viewer advised to focus on instead of day-to-day price movements of gold and silver?
-The viewer is advised to focus on the big picture and long-term fundamentals, as these are more indicative of the true value and potential of gold and silver as investments.
What is the significance of the outflows from precious metals ETFs in 2024 mentioned in the video?
-The outflows indicate that regular retail investors are currently not confident in gold and silver, believing they are at the top and selling out, which the speaker suggests is a misunderstanding of the opportunity these metals present.
What does the speaker suggest about the behavior of insiders at major companies and investment firms?
-The speaker suggests that the behavior of insiders, such as selling their stocks, indicates that the stock market may be running out of steam and could be nearing a downturn.
What is the speaker's recommendation for a minimum stacking target of gold and silver?
-The speaker recommends a minimum stacking target of five ounces of gold and 200 ounces of silver as a way to protect oneself from economic and systemic uncertainties.
How does the speaker address the potential downside of investing in gold and silver ETFs like GLD and SLV?
-The speaker points out that while ETFs offer exposure to the price of gold and silver, they do not provide the same protection as physical metals in the event of a financial system collapse, as they are a paper claim to the metal's value in US dollars.
What is the speaker's stance on using other financial vehicles in addition to gold and silver?
-The speaker is open to using other financial vehicles such as stocks, real estate, and even Bitcoin to improve one's financial situation, while also using profits from these investments to buy physical gold and silver as a form of preparation against financial system risks.
Outlines
📊 Gold and Silver Market Analysis
The speaker, Bald Guy, begins by addressing the shortsighted focus on short-term volatility in gold and silver prices, instead advocating for attention to long-term bullish fundamentals. He uses moving averages to illustrate that gold is in a bull market, with the 50-day average significantly higher than the 200-day average. Since 2015, gold's average closing price has risen for nine consecutive years, outperforming the S&P 500. Bald Guy suggests that gold and silver's performance in a risk-on environment is a strong indicator of their potential in a risk-off scenario, hinting at a deeper market analysis to come.
📉 Insider Trading and Economic Indicators
This paragraph delves into the behavior of company insiders, using Nvidia as an example to show that a significant number of insiders are selling their shares, suggesting the stock market may be peaking. The speaker points out that the economy is not the same as the stock market, with economic downturns often beginning in the labor market and later affecting stocks. He emphasizes the importance of preparing for economic slowdowns and references a tool on his Patreon for calculating personal gold and silver stacking targets based on individual or family needs.
💰 ETFs as a Short-Term Trading Tool
The speaker discusses the pros and cons of investing in gold and silver ETFs, such as GLD and SLV. He sees the upside as a quick and convenient way for short-term traders to gain exposure to precious metals without the need for physical storage. However, for long-term investors looking to protect against a failing fiat money system, he warns that ETFs only offer a paper claim to the metal's value and may not provide the same security as physical holdings in the event of a financial system collapse.
🏠 Personal Update and Future Plans
In the final paragraph, Bald Guy shares a personal update about his upcoming transition to full-time YouTube content creation in July. He expresses gratitude for the support from his audience, which has allowed his channel to grow rapidly. He also mentions his current move and the changes in his life, signing off with well-wishes for his viewers until the next video.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bullish Fundamentals
💡Moving Averages
💡Gold Performance
💡Risk-On Environment
💡ETFs
💡Insider Transactions
💡Unemployment Rate
💡Stacking Target
💡GLD and SLV
💡Fiat Money System
💡Inflation
Highlights
The 50-day moving average price of gold is significantly higher than the 200-day moving average, indicating a bull market.
Gold's performance has been strong since 2015, with an average closing price increase for nine consecutive years.
Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past nine years, suggesting its value as a safe haven asset.
Investors may soon shift from riskier investments to safe havens like gold and silver in a risk-off market.
The speaker recommends a minimum target of stacking 5 ounces of gold and 200 ounces of silver as a safeguard.
Gold and silver ETFs have seen outflows in 2024, indicating a lack of retail investor confidence.
Insider sales at major companies like Nvidia suggest that the stock market may be losing steam.
The speaker emphasizes the difference between the economy and the stock market, noting that economic downturns start with the labor market.
Unemployment rates in key countries are at 12-month highs, signaling potential economic slowdowns.
The speaker suggests that physical gold and silver are preferable for long-term protection against economic uncertainties.
The value of 5 ounces of gold and 200 ounces of silver still covers approximately 3.3 months of average American expenses, adjusting for inflation.
GLD and SLV ETFs are suitable for short-term traders but may not offer the same protection as physical metals in a financial collapse.
Physical gold and silver can protect purchasing power against inflation more effectively than ETFs.
The speaker shares personal investment strategies, including using profits from other investments to buy physical gold and silver.
The speaker is preparing to go full-time on YouTube in July, sharing updates on his personal life and plans.
Transcripts
hello everyone welcome to bald guy money
I am bald guy and just yesterday I
shared this post on X talking about how
I am seeing too many amateur analysts
and medals commentators distracted by
short-term volatility in the prices of
gold and silver while totally ignoring
what I think are the bullish
fundamentals for example if we zoom out
and take an honest look at gold
performance starting with the moving
averages so the numbers that measure the
average price of an asset over a
specific period of time what we see here
is that the 50-day moving average price
of gold is at
$2,371 190 per ounce Which is
99.7% higher than the 200 day moving
average price of
$2,629 per ounce and at the risk of
oversimplifying things what this
typically means is when the 50-day
average is higher than the 200 day
average is that you are in a bull market
now if we zoom out a little more since
gold bottomed out in 2015 following the
2011 and 2012 blowoff top that we saw
which brought gold near
$2,000 the average closing price for
gold meaning the average finishing price
for gold at the end of a trading day and
this is a very important statistic has
increased for nine consecutive years and
in fact it's up 90% over that 9 period
9-year period of time I should say
versus 148% for the S&P 500 to give you
a point of reference meaning that for a
safe haven asset it's performed very
well in a risk-on environment so instead
of stressing out about little day-to-day
moves I say focus on the big stuff
because if gold has done this well in a
risk on environment meaning investors
are willing to take on a little more
risk in their Investments as they seek
higher returns just imagine what's going
to happen to the prices of both gold and
silver when the market turns to risk off
as things start to go sour and that's
why in this video I want to dig a little
deeper into that and cover what it is I
am seeing happening in the market that
indicates investors May soon abandon
riskier Investments and move to save
Havens like gold and silver that's the
first point and right before we get to
this video's viewer question I want to
give you all a quick update on how much
gold and silver I think you should stack
as a minimum Target to protect yourself
from economic and systemic uncertainties
and that will be a concrete number in
troy ounces given to you no percentages
so be sure to watch this video to the
very end because it's a very important
one now just before we get into it if
you're in the USA and want to buy gold
or silver at a great price from a
reputable dealer please check out
channel partner pinex pin.com to see
what they have to offer and for those of
you who want to get some gold and silver
in your IRA remember they can help call
them for a free consultation at the
number on the screen to find out how
just please tell them you came from the
bald guy Money Channel okay so jumping
right into this I showed you this image
just a moment ago and I said if you zoom
out gold has done very well in an
environment where the market has
Preferred riskier Investments like
flashy AI stocks and I will take that
one step further and go as far as to say
investors are totally ignoring the
opportunity staring them right in the
face right now because gold and silver
are only just getting started because as
it stands today it's not the average New
York Stock Exchange Trader investment
fund manager or regular Joe retail
investor that has been driving the price
of metals up we've covered this in past
videos and that much is obvious when we
look at how much money has been taken
out of precious metals ETFs in 2024
because this is usually a good sign of
where regular retail investors stand in
relation to their attitude towards gold
and silver and what this data is telling
us right here is that not only do they
not believe gold and silver can go
higher but it's telling us that they
think we're at the top that's why
they're selling out that's why we're
seeing outflows in 2024 as opposed
opposed to inflows even after we've made
decisive breakouts to the upside over
the past few months and I will digress
for a moment and say recent performance
of the mining stocks is showing us us
the exact same thing retail investors do
not understand gold they do not
understand silver or the opportunity
coming in those Metals when the markets
start to come down when the broader
markets start to come down but mark my
words they will come to appreciate the
stability and safety that gold and
silver offer and they will start to pile
back into the very ETFs that they're
selling off once the stock market starts
to correct because if the behavior of
insiders at the world's biggest
companies and investment firms is any
indication of where risk on investments
are in their life cycle right now it's
that the stock market is slowly running
out of steam and I know I've been
talking about this for about a year now
but I have pulled up some data here
showing what Nvidia insiders have been
up to for the past year so these are
people within the company and as you can
see over the past 3 months the
percentage of Insider transactions at
the company that's been driving the S&P
500 up show us that Insider sales have
risen to 92% of transactions compared to
only 75% of transactions being sales
over the past 12 months so what this
says in a nutshell is that Nvidia
insiders are selling their stocks and
when we look at how that breaks down
into actual shares traded you can see
that
96% of shares that were either bought or
sold by Nvidia insiders are shares that
are being sold versus 74% over the last
12 months and this data shows us that
insiders are starting to cash out and
sadly as I've said in past videos it
will leave a lot of Regular Joe retail
invest s who are being urged on by the
media to enter the market at all-time
highs well it will leave them holding
the bag when the market comes crashing
down so the question is what can you do
about it what how can you prepare
yourself for a situation where the
economy slows down even more than it
already has slowed down and I say that
as we look at the development of the
unemployment rate in four key countries
which you can see are all at 12-month
highs and on a growth trajectory because
and I want you all to remember this this
is an important point the economy is not
the stock market the downturn starts
here in the labor market and then it
gradually trickles into the stock market
as consumers stop consuming they stop
paying their debts and struggle to make
ends meet which we are already seeing
many signs of that happening right now
so again I ask you what is it that you
can do today to prepare yourself moving
forward well back in 2021 I did a video
in fact it was one of my first videos
and in it I talked about how much gold
and silver I think people should aim to
have as a first level stacking Target
because it's one thing to know that you
need to have some gold and silver around
but it's another thing to know how much
you need and actively work towards
achieving the Target and as you can see
in the image here what I said back in
20121 was that I think a good minimum
stacking Target is to get yourself five
ounces of gold and 200 ounces of silver
and let me add that at the time premiums
on Sovereign coins for silver silver
Sovereign coins were out of control and
I was saying at the time that I'd Focus
75% of that silver stack on bars because
they were much cheaper than coins at the
time now if you watch that video you'll
remember this data from the US Bureau of
Labor Statistics that showed the average
monthly expenses for an American and
what I said was was that having that 5
oz of gold and 200 o of silver covered a
little more than 3 months of those
expenses and that I thought that was a
reasonable coverage period to aim for as
a first level stacking Target and here
is the US dollar calculation I showed in
that video where 5 ounces of gold and
200 ounces of silver were worth
$4,300 at spot now since 2021 there has
been a lot of inflation and the US
dollar prices of gold and silver have
gone up since that time meaning what was
$14,300 in metals is now
$17,600 and the question is how does
that stack up to what the Bureau of
Labor Statistics says the average
expenses for an American are today well
here are the latest figures from the BLS
showing that the average monthly cost of
what I categorized as essential expenses
back in 2021 and I did this I did this
calculation this way to make sure that
we were doing an Apples to Apples
comparison versus the 2021 video those
expenses for an American have risen by
about 20% where the total value of the
metals at spot price have gone up by 23%
and that means that my stacking goal of
5 ounces of gold and 200 o of silver
still makes sense in 20124 in fact when
you round the coverage time numbers that
amount of gold and silver covered 3.3
months of expenses in 2021 and still
covers 3.3 months of expenses in 2024
and that shows us just how good precious
metals are at sniffing out inflation and
protecting purchasing power now just
before I get into this video's viewer
question I know that some of you may be
thinking you don't need this much gold
and silver to cover essential expenses
where you live or you might be asking
yourselves how does that break down for
a family of four well I just want to
remind you all that I have a tool that
breaks that down according to your
preferred gold and silver split for a
single person or family of four it
breaks it down for your country for the
ones that I've shown here on the screen
and it also breaks it down on those
parameters per US state for all 50
states and that tool is on my patreon so
if you like my content and want to
support me there and get access to tools
like this the link to join is in the
description and pinned comment and I
also want to say just before I get to
this video's viewer question that by
pure coincidence my very good friend to
is one who has a great YouTube channel I
know that many of you watch it also did
a similar breakdown as it applies to
Gold only so if you're interested in
this topic please check out his video
it's from just a couple days ago to get
his take on this topic I think it's
worth your time and now moving on to
this video's viewer question and it
comes from a viewer named Walter hat
hello Walter thanks for submitting your
question and he asks what are the
upsides and downsides to putting money
in GLD and SLV and for those of you who
don't know what GLD and SLV are these
are two of the large gold and silver
ETFs and I thought this question tied in
very well with this video since I was
just talking about outflows from these
ETFs a moment ago and I wanted to use
this as a moment to share my point of
view on these ETFs and how I would
approach them and I'll start from the
upside or the pro as I have called it
here on the screen and I'd say the pro
is more for short-term Traders when it
comes to these ETFs who want to get
quick In-N-Out exposure to Precious
Metals prices and are comfortable with
having their trades settled in US
dollars if you're someone looking for
short-term capital gains being in these
ETFs is probably the best option for you
as the premiums on physical medals can
eat into short-term profits on the
conside though so the biggest downside I
see to these ETFs is that if you're a
long-term Metals bull who is stacking to
protect yourself against the clearly
corrupt and failing Fiat money system
which that's the category that I find
myself in owning SLV or GLD only gives
you a paper claim to the US dollar value
of the metal if there is some Divergence
between what the market truly values
medals at and what the US dollar value
they'll give you is then you're out of
luck and if there is hyperinflation and
the dollar becomes worthless meaning you
can't trade dollars for anything they
can settle your account their debt to
you in those worthless dollars and keep
the medals for themselves which means
these ETFs don't truly protect you in
the case of a total collapse of the
financial system now I'm sure there are
a lot of people furiously typing in the
comments section right now if you don't
hold it you don't own it it's become a
bit of a call to action by some of the
other YouTube channels out there who are
either trying to usually scare you for
clicks or they're trying to sell you
something and although I believe in
holding the physical if you're a Trader
and see a large price pump potentially
incoming for gold or silver and you just
want to make some Fiat profits on that
prediction on that gut feeling maybe
it's a gut feeling you're acting on I
don't see any harm in doing that
ultimately I started this channel
because I wanted people to improve the
quality of their lives and I have
improved the quality of my own life
using Financial Vehicles other than gold
and silver like stocks like real estate
and yes even Bitcoin I know many of you
hate Bitcoin out there I'm not telling
you to buy it I'm just sharing you with
you all my personal experience and
basically what I've done is I've used a
good portion of the profits that I've
made from those other Investments and in
the case of real estate cash flow coming
from the passive income from my real
estate to buy physical gold and silver
because listen I am a skeptic when it
comes to the financial system and I
prepare myself accordingly while trying
to maximize the level of that
preparation by using my knowledge of how
the current Financial system functions
to benefit from it rather than just
ignoring it with that said that's it for
this video I want to thank you all for
watching please remember to hit the like
if you liked this video remember to
leave me a comment and share this video
with other people people if you think
they need to hear this message this is
one of the fastest growing precious
metals channels on YouTube right now
thanks to you thanks for you sharing my
videos thanks for all of you liking my
videos and commenting on them I want to
thank you very much for supporting me
here as I get ready to go full-time on
YouTube in July of this year yes it's
right around the corner and I'm moving
right now my house is basically empty
right now so just as a a little update
as to what's happening in my life right
now and until the next time we see each
other everybody take care of yourselves
and take care of each other goodbye
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