Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

Summary

In this crypto market update, the video discusses Bitcoin's recent price movements, noting its closure below the 20-week moving average for the first time since October 2023. The presenter emphasizes the significance of Bitcoin dominance, as altcoins continue to bleed value despite Bitcoin's resilience above its 21-week EMA. Drawing parallels to historical patterns, the video suggests a potential summer low, cautioning viewers about the systematic devaluation of altcoin pairs against Bitcoin. The presenter advises a DCA strategy and highlights the importance of macroeconomic trends in shaping the crypto market's future.

Takeaways

• 🗓️ The video discusses the current state of Bitcoin and references previous videos that may not align with the current market due to being recorded a week prior.
• 📉 The presenter emphasizes that their analysis is not about short-term fluctuations but rather long-term trends, regardless of Bitcoin's price at the time of recording.
• 📊 Bitcoin has recently closed below its 20-week moving average for the first time since October 2023, but it is still above the 21-week EMA, indicating a continued presence in the bull market support band.
• 📈 Despite being below the 20-week SMA, Bitcoin's price action is still relevant to the historical pattern of a summer low, potentially followed by a price pump in May.
• 📉 The presenter notes a common occurrence in Bitcoin's history where a significant price increase happens in June, suggesting a pattern that could be observed again.
• 📌 The video highlights that all Bitcoin pairs have had a weekly close below support, marking the lowest weekly close for the entire cycle, which is considered a significant development.
• 🔄 The presenter compares the current market situation to 2019, noting the breakdown of all Bitcoin pairs and the subsequent Federal Reserve action, suggesting a similar pattern may be emerging.
• 🚀 The dominance of Bitcoin, especially when excluding Ethereum, has reached a new cycle high, indicating a continued trend of Bitcoin outperforming altcoins.
• 📊 The advanced decline index of the top 100 cryptocurrencies shows a market capitulation, with Bitcoin and Ethereum being the primary recipients of liquidity as altcoins underperform.
• 📉 The presenter predicts that altcoins could still drop significantly from current levels, possibly by another 33%, aligning with the trend of Bitcoin dominance increasing.
• 📝 The video concludes with a reminder that the presenter's views are based on a macro perspective that plays out over years, and that exposure to crypto should primarily be in Bitcoin until looser monetary policy arrives.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video?

The main topic of the video is an update on Bitcoin's market situation, specifically discussing the bull market support band and the impact of Bitcoin's price movements on the overall crypto market.

Why were the previous videos not in sync with the current market conditions?

The previous videos were not in sync with the current market conditions because they were recorded a week prior and released while the creator was out of town, hence they did not reflect the most recent market changes.

What is the significance of Bitcoin closing below its 20-week moving average?

Bitcoin closing below its 20-week moving average is significant as it indicates a potential shift in the market trend, as this has not happened since October 2023 according to the video.

What is the 'bull market support band' mentioned in the video?

The 'bull market support band' refers to a combination of the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), which are used as technical indicators to gauge the strength and direction of the market.

What does the video suggest about the relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins?

The video suggests that altcoins are likely to continue losing value relative to Bitcoin, as indicated by the breakdown of all Bitcoin pairs and the increasing Bitcoin dominance.

Why does the video mention the summer low in the context of Bitcoin's price movements?

The video mentions the summer low because it is a common pattern in Bitcoin's price history to see a low during the summer months, often followed by a rally that can mislead investors into thinking the market downturn is over.

What is the significance of the 8-week SMA in the context of Bitcoin's price movements?

The 8-week SMA is a technical indicator that can provide insights into short-term market trends. The video suggests that Bitcoin's price has historically rebounded after dipping below the 8-week SMA, indicating potential future price movements.

What does the video suggest about the potential future price movements of Bitcoin?

The video suggests that while Bitcoin is currently above the 21-week EMA, it has shown a series of lower highs and could potentially drop further, following a pattern similar to previous market cycles.

What is the 'advanced decline index' mentioned in the video, and what does it indicate?

The 'advanced decline index' is a measure of the breadth of the market, indicating how many stocks or cryptocurrencies are declining versus advancing. The video suggests that this index is showing a significant capitulation, implying a broad market downturn.

What advice does the video give regarding investment strategy in the current market conditions?

The video advises a DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) strategy over the long haul, based on the investor's risk tolerance, and suggests focusing on Bitcoin until looser monetary policy arrives, as it is expected to outperform altcoins.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Crypto Market Update and Bitcoin's Position

The speaker addresses the audience about the current state of the crypto market, focusing on Bitcoin. They explain the discrepancy between the recorded videos and the current market situation due to the videos being pre-recorded a week prior. The speaker emphasizes that their analysis is based on long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations. They discuss Bitcoin's price movements and its relation to the 20-week and 21-week moving averages, indicating that despite being below the 20-week SMA, Bitcoin is still above the 21-week EMA, which is a key support level. The speaker also mentions the potential for a 'summer low' in the market and historical patterns of Bitcoin's price movements around this time.

05:01

📊 Analyzing Bitcoin's Historical Patterns and Market Trends

This paragraph delves into the historical price patterns of Bitcoin, particularly focusing on the common occurrence of a price rally in May followed by a summer lull. The speaker discusses the significance of Bitcoin's weekly close below the 20-week moving average and the 8-week SMA, drawing parallels with past market behavior. They highlight the importance of all Bitcoin pairs having a weekly close below support, which they consider a significant development. The speaker also touches upon the comparison between the current market situation and that of 2019, noting the similarities in Bitcoin's dominance and the behavior of altcoins relative to Bitcoin.

10:02

📉 The Impact of Monetary Policy on Cryptocurrency Markets

The speaker discusses the impact of monetary policy on the cryptocurrency market, specifically the relationship between interest rates and the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin. They note the current trend of all Bitcoin pairs breaking down and the potential implications of this for the market. The speaker also addresses the dominance of Bitcoin in the market, as indicated by the Bitcoin Dominance Index, and how this trend may continue as liquidity shifts from high-risk to low-risk assets. They also mention the possibility of altcoins recovering to higher levels before eventually capitulating to lower price ranges.

15:03

🤔 Market Sentiment and Strategy Amidst Cryptocurrency Volatility

In this paragraph, the speaker reflects on the market sentiment and the strategic approach investors should take amidst the volatility in the cryptocurrency space. They suggest that a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy based on individual risk tolerance could be beneficial in the long run. The speaker also warns of potential downside risks if the bull market support band is lost, similar to what happened with all USD pairs. They draw attention to the historical patterns of Bitcoin's price movements in relation to the bull market support band and the possibility of a prolonged period before a definitive market direction is established.

20:04

🔍 Macro Analysis of Bitcoin and Altcoins' Performance

The speaker provides a macro analysis of Bitcoin and altcoins' performance, discussing the ongoing trend of increasing Bitcoin dominance and the breakdown of all Bitcoin pairs. They highlight the performance of the advanced decline index of the top 100 cryptocurrencies, indicating a market capitulation. The speaker also addresses the resilience of Bitcoin and Ethereum compared to other altcoins, noting their positions relative to the bull market support band. They conclude by emphasizing the importance of a long-term perspective when analyzing the cryptocurrency market and the need for patience as macro trends unfold over time.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that operates without a central bank or single administrator. It is the largest and most well-known cryptocurrency. In the video, Bitcoin is the central focus, with discussions about its price movements, market trends, and its dominance in the cryptocurrency market.

💡Bull Market Support Band

The Bull Market Support Band refers to a technical analysis concept where certain price levels provide significant support during a bull market, preventing prices from falling significantly. In the script, the presenter discusses the significance of Bitcoin's price in relation to this support band, indicating its role in gauging market sentiment and potential reversal points.

💡20-Week Moving Average (20-WMA)

The 20-Week Moving Average is a technical indicator that smooths out price data to show longer-term trends by calculating the average of the closing prices over a 20-week period. The script mentions Bitcoin closing below its 20-WMA for the first time since October 2023, which is a bearish signal indicating a potential trend reversal.

💡Altcoins

Altcoins are alternative cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin. They represent the vast array of digital currencies that exist outside of Bitcoin. The video discusses the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin, noting a trend of altcoins losing value or 'bleeding' back to Bitcoin.

💡Bitcoin Dominance

Bitcoin Dominance refers to the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap that is held by Bitcoin. It is an indicator of Bitcoin's strength compared to other cryptocurrencies. The script discusses Bitcoin dominance as a key metric, showing an increase which suggests a shift of market capitalization towards Bitcoin from altcoins.

💡All Bitcoin Pairs

All Bitcoin Pairs is a term used to describe the collective performance of all cryptocurrencies when paired with Bitcoin (i.e., their value against Bitcoin). The script mentions that all Bitcoin pairs had a weekly close below support, indicating a bearish trend for altcoins in comparison to Bitcoin.

💡8-Week SMA (Simple Moving Average)

The 8-Week Simple Moving Average is another technical indicator that tracks the average price of an asset over eight weeks. It is used to identify short-term trends. In the script, the presenter notes that Bitcoin's price has fallen below the 8-Week SMA, which is typically seen as a bearish signal.

💡Market Cap

Market Cap, short for Market Capitalization, is the total value of a company or, in the context of cryptocurrencies, the total value of a cryptocurrency. It is calculated by multiplying the current price of the asset by the total number of outstanding coins. The script refers to Bitcoin's market cap in relation to altcoins and dominance metrics.

💡Liquidity

In financial markets, liquidity refers to the ease with which an asset can be bought or sold without affecting its price. The script discusses liquidity flowing from high-risk assets like altcoins to lower-risk assets like Bitcoin, indicating a preference shift among investors.

💡Advanced Decline Index

The Advanced Decline Index is a market breadth indicator that compares the number of advancing and declining issues in a market. A high number indicates many stocks are advancing, while a low number indicates many are declining. The script mentions the index to illustrate the overall market trend and the health of the cryptocurrency market.

💡Macro View

A macro view in investing refers to analyzing and making decisions based on large-scale economic factors and trends, rather than focusing on individual assets or short-term market fluctuations. The script emphasizes the presenter's macro view on the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin and altcoins, suggesting long-term trends and patterns.

Highlights

The video discusses an update on Bitcoin's bull market support band, emphasizing the importance of long-term views over short-term market fluctuations.

The presenter explains the relevance of pre-recorded videos, stating that content should not be judged based on immediate market changes.

Bitcoin's price at the time of recording was around $63,000, with a reminder that prices may vary by the time of viewing.

Bitcoin has closed below its 20-week moving average for the first time since October 2023, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics.

Despite being below the 20-week SMA, Bitcoin remains above the 21-week EMA, suggesting ongoing support within the bull market.

The presenter predicts a potential summer low for Bitcoin but warns of a possible pump in May to mislead investors.

Historical data shows a common 27% move to the upside for Bitcoin in June, suggesting a pattern that may repeat.

The video discusses the significance of Bitcoin's weekly close below the 20-week EMA and 8-week SMA, comparing it to historical patterns.

All Bitcoin pairs experienced a weekly close below support, marking the lowest weekly close in the current cycle.

Bitcoin dominance is increasing, with the presenter noting a trend of altcoins fading back to Bitcoin, similar to patterns seen in 2019.

The presenter compares the current market situation to 2019, highlighting the breakdown of all Bitcoin pairs and potential implications.

Bitcoin dominance excluding Ethereum has reached a new cycle high, indicating a shift in market allocation.

The video discusses the potential for Bitcoin to continue drawing liquidity from the altcoin market, leading to further declines in altcoin valuations.

The presenter suggests that the systematic devaluation of all Bitcoin pairs is part of a larger macro trend that may take years to fully play out.

The video concludes with advice on investment strategies, recommending a DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) approach based on individual risk tolerance.

The presenter emphasizes the importance of a macro view in cryptocurrency investment, cautioning against short-term reactions.

The video ends with a call to action for viewers to subscribe and consider the premium offering at intothecryptoverse.com.

Transcripts

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back

into the cryptoverse today we're going

to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to

be providing an update to the bull

market support band if you guys like the

content make sure you subscribe to the

channel give the video a thumbs up and

also check out into the cryptoverse

premium at intothe cryptoverse decom

let's goad and jump in now if you've

been watching the last I want to say

four videos that I've posted you may

have noticed they don't really seem to

line up with what the markets are

currently doing and that's because

because all of those videos were

recorded a week ago but I still thought

they were relevant to record I mean I

was out of town for the last week and I

wanted to release something while I was

out of town so for instance yesterday I

posted a video and it showed Bitcoin was

at

66k and I I knew I was going to get a

lot of comments about it but I you know

I thought to myself and I've said this

before you know my videos are not based

on what happens tomorrow or what

happened yesterday you know if I make a

video on

bitcoin it shouldn't matter if it's at

66k or 64k you know I people shouldn't

get upset because it's $2,000 lower or

higher from where I made the video at

and that's something I often see like

sometimes I put out a video and the next

day the price does something completely

different than what I was thinking was

more the long-term view or the next day

it'll do what I was describing and

people will say oh like you caught it or

ha you know this age poorly but in both

both of those scenarios you should know

that again My Views are not a reflection

as to what I think's going to happen

tomorrow you know so if it does happen

tomorrow it's just you know it's it's

just random it's not you know it's it's

it's very difficult so again I get the

frustration that the videos have been

lagging for about a week or so this

video is at least you know coming in

with you know at the current prices that

around $63,000 of course by the time you

watch the video the price could be

different but it should be uh it's more

ref of what's going on so that was the

reason I was out of town and I just

pre-recorded videos to release them

throughout the week now with that said

there have been quite a lot of updates

to be had over the last week because

we've actually seen Bitcoin close below

its 20we moving average um for the first

time since October of

2023 now at this point while it is below

the 20we moving average it is still

above the 21 EMA and remember the bull

market support ban consists of both the

20we SMA and the 21 we EMA and the 20we

SMA is currently at

64824938

and the close was at

63,5 okay and now the price is is at

just over 63,000 we're still below the

20we SMA but the 21 we EMA last week was

only 61,2 190 this week at

61451 so we are in fact still above the

21 we EMA in fact the current 21 we EMA

is actually right around the price that

Bitcoin held support at weekly closes

back in early may now I said going into

this summer right that we should see

theoretically we should see a summer low

but in that I said that even if we get

it you're likely going to get a pump

sometime in May to make people think

it's not going to happen right because

that's what often happens it happened in

2021 right we had this it happened in um

I believe it happened in in 2022 but to

a lesser extent right I mean it rallied

from 25k up to 32k it might not sound

like a lot um especially when you're

looking at at today's prices but at

least from that that low in May it was

still about a 27% move to the upside and

just right here right from this low in

late April early May that was also about

a a 27% move to the upside over here in

2021 it was about coincidentally about a

27% move to the upside and even last

year right last year the year that

everyone remembers the most you know the

most vividly because it was it was most

recent Bitcoin had also coincidentally I

don't know what it is maybe someone do

some data mining on this 27% stuff but

about a 27% move to the upside in June

you know and so this is a a common

occurrence that we see Bitcoin do is

that you you you get to the end of April

and and I think we even talked about

this you know I mean maybe correct me if

I'm wrong but I I I feel like I have

this vivid memory of talking about this

back in like late April of of this idea

that regardless of whether you know

regardless of the eventual outcome what

was the most likely outcome was to by

late April to take out this low here

that we established in in in March right

to to sweep below that low in late April

early May and then to get a bounce back

up before figuring out what we're

actually going to do right that was what

we talked about to take out the low to

get a bounce back up and then to

basically consolidate we you know

expressed that many many times and the

reason I said this actually one of the

reasons was because a lot of times

people say sell and May and go away

right because they say it because price

often bleeds a lot of times price will

often take a big hit in late April and

so by the time May rolls around everyone

is feeling pretty bad about the price

and so they say selling may go away and

then you end up getting this rally in

May that they then draws people back in

potentially before the actual summer

lull takes over and again this is

something that we've seen happen many

many times in bitcoin's price history

and it doesn't have to happen right I

mean there's no guarantee that it

continues to play out like that and even

last year when Bitcoin got a rally

around the same time it actually put in

a new yearly high now this time it has

not yet seen a new yearly high and I I

do want to talk about a few things

because there actually have been a lot

of things that have that have happened

just over last week so first of all we

have in fact had a weekly close below

the 20we moving average now it also of

course closed below the 8we SME and this

is something we also said to keep an eye

on that we would likely after holding

support at the 20we SME the first time

you go to it you normally Wick off of it

you go above the 8we moving average and

then you go back below the 8we moving

average later on in the summer same

thing happened last year same thing

happened also in

2019 okay this is a very common thing

that happen with Bitcoin and it should

not really be that much of a surprise

now the 8we ese is at 65,800 or so so

we're well below that now I know it's I

know what everyone wants me to talk

about and that's all Bitcoin Pairs and

the reason and if you didn't want me to

talk about that then you I don't know

maybe this is the right channel for you

but if you look at all Bitcoin pairs

they had a weekly close below

support okay to me this is a big deal

now that does does it mean that it has

to immediately break down this is those

this is I mean it doesn't mean it won't

right I mean in fact in 2019 it did

immediately break down this is one of

those things were like I expressed my

opinion about all Bitcoin pairs for

years and years and

years this week was the lowest weekly

close by all Bitcoin pairs we've had for

the entire cycle right lowest weekly

close so of course I'm going to come out

and say look guys it's the lowest weekly

close and if it rallies next week then

the dunking you know can can can begin

again but the reality is is right you

know altcoins keep fading back to

Bitcoin in the same way they did in 2019

and I know a lot of people hate that

comparison they want me to compare it to

2020 but

guys it's the same damn thing right I

don't know how else to say it I mean it

just is and I don't control what it is

it just is what it is and all I keep

seeing is that you're seeing all Bitcoin

pairs break down while you have you know

interest rates relatively elevated and

we saw all Bitcoin pairs break down in

June of 2019 and the FED cut shortly

thereafter and it looks like they're

breaking down again now that doesn't

mean they can't go back up at all I'm

not saying they can't go back up you

know and and and and get bounces back to

higher levels I mean you can see over

here it started off going all the way up

to like 0.

51.52 went down then went back up to 048

went down and then went back up to 044

for you know I mean who knows if it's

going to get another move up or if this

is just it and it finally capitulates to

the range lows that we've been talking

about for the entire Bitcoin dominance

Journey that we've been on and so for me

I I I look at at a chart like this and

rather than try to time every single

short-term move by all Bitcoin pairs I

just recognize that the general trend is

down just like it was over here as Monet

policy became Tighter and Tighter and

this is the reality I mean you know we

you can cherry pick fewer and fewer alts

if you want but the dominance Bitcoin

continues to go up and if you don't

believe me um one way to look at this is

to look at Bitcoin divided by total

minus E so I mean again the re Bitcoin

dominance right now is still at 55% if

you exclude eth from the Bitcoin

dominance calculation Bitcoin dominance

just put on a new cycle high right it

just put in a new cycle high now you

might say it's cope to even compare it

like that and I might agree with you but

I also would would also point out that

the same thing actually happened in 2019

with eth Bitcoin where you saw all

Bitcoin pairs break down in June and

then eth Bitcoin broke down in July um

and again this is this is the the

Playbook that we saw happen in 2019

right if you look at eth Bitcoin it also

broke down but it took it a little

longer to break down right it didn't

break down until about mid July whereas

all Bitcoin pairs broke support in in

June right right I mean as you can see

right if you zoom in on all Bitcoin

pairs if you look at if we look at this

Wick right here this weekly close

occurred the week of June 24th where we

closed below prior support e Bitcoin

didn't break down for a couple more

weeks so yes it might be cop to say that

well if you calculate dominance

excluding eth is putting a new cycle

highs I would also just humbly point out

that look last cycle all Bitcoin pairs

broke down first in June and then e

Bitcoin ended up breaking down the

following month so that is a is is a

pretty big development in the cryptus

and you can also see that the bull Mark

Sport and in fact the 8we SMA continue

to guide the the all Bitcoin pairs down

right you can see that the 8 week

estimate is guiding them down the bull

Mark sport B is guiding them down so you

have a lot of these things aligning that

we've been talking about for years I

think a lot of people are just

frustrated that it's taking this long to

play out but I don't really think an

unbiased person could look at this chart

and pretend like it's not playing out

right again for anyone who has been

bullish on alt Bitcoin pairs over the

last two and a half years they've been

wrong because alt Bitcoin pairs just put

in a new low this last week right they

just put in a new low um now of course

you're going to have the the the altcoin

dip buyers on their Bitcoin pairs right

say that well this is when they're going

to bounce and look guys I I don't know

maybe they will maybe they they won't I

know that last cycle they didn't really

bounce until they went all the way down

to. three um and that's not actually

that's not entirely true if you look at

the daily time frame they actually did

get a bigger bounce like if you look at

when they broke support they went all

the way down to 0. 35 they Wicked all

the way back up to 042 so that's why I'm

saying like it's not impossible for

something like that to happen right it's

certainly not impossible but any type

any types of moves back up to the upside

for all Bitcoin pairs I would expect to

be relative ly shortlived um I do think

eventually they are going to go down to

0.25 especially now that that support is

is theoretically breaking so we'll see

what you know what the next couple of

weeks hold next couple of weeks hold for

all Bitcoin pairs honestly I'm not going

to keep a super close eye on it um well

that's not sure I probably will but I

I'm going to I'm not going to make you

know constant references to it you guys

know my opinion on it and I mean if it

if it rallies up to 04 or drops to 36

my view doesn't change right I I just I

think they're going to bleed back down

to the range lows I I I think that you

know if you look at all Bitcoin pairs

you're watching them break support and

remember we we saw a lot of individual

altcoins break support and once they

break support on their Bitcoin pairs

they then struggle on their USD Pairs

and you're seeing the same thing happen

again right over here when all Bitcoin

pairs broke down all USD pairs followed

and frankly if you look at total three

it just closed below the bullmark

Scorpion so again you know this is one

of those things where a lot of people

were looking at at all Bitcoin pairs or

all USD pairs as potentially right

here right but right here never had

weekly closes below the bull market

support band whereas over here did and

what this has in common with this here

is that that's when all Bitcoin pairs

broke down in the summer of 2019 over

here all Bitcoin pairs were actually

already in macro uptrends which is why I

don't think that this is similar to this

I think it's actually more similar to

this over here now the USD valuation of

Bitcoin obviously is a lot more

difficult to predict uh than all Bitcoin

pairs the reason for that is because my

view on alt Bitcoin fairs is that go

down no matter the direction of Bitcoin

USD I don't care if Bitcoin goes up down

sideways whatever guess what most alts

are going to bleed doesn't really matter

what Bitcoin does it's because liquidity

is Flowing from highrisk assets to

lowrisk assets be that as it may I would

be remiss if I didn't at least bring up

the fact that so far we have seen a

series of lower highs that sort of bounc

off the bull Mark work bed not that

dissimilar from we saw in 2019 so I

think that should be on your radar and

if it is you know I I put out a video a

couple of weeks ago saying that look it

looks like we're getting rejected from

the Range High this is when everyone was

Bull posting about Bitcoin and saying no

way it's going to go back to the low 60s

here well here we are we're back at the

bull Mark we B just like 2019 um um and

and now you have the decision to make

right because I mean this is one of

those things where you know when Bitcoin

was at 71k and everyone was Bull hosting

and they're say you know later guys now

you have a decision right now bitcoin's

back at 60 62k

63k if you feel like you missed out I

mean here you go right I would just say

look DCA strategy over the Long Haul

based on risk levels you're comfortable

with is probably going to be the best

strategy and the thing to be on the

lookout for for potential downside is if

we lose the bullmark sport band kind of

like all USD pairs just lost and the

thing is is even if we do lose it it

doesn't necessarily have to be immediate

we could I mean we could go back down to

60 and bounce again if you look closely

at what happened in 2019 in fact we did

get another bounce right we went up we

came down we went up again we came down

again and then we got one final bounce

and then we came back over here and then

we dropped below the 20we moving average

so again if that is going to play out it

could still take it could take some time

right and and the reason I say that is

because remember back over here in 2019

it was during this period that all

Bitcoin pairs were capitulating and by

the time that that total 3 minus USD

divided by Bitcoin reached the range low

of 0.25 it was in September of 2019 and

that was when Bitcoin finally fell below

the 20we moving average right so there's

also this reality of guess what you know

all bit Bitcoin pairs while they they

have been stuck in traffic on struggle

Street for a while they're still not at

the range lows suggesting that Bitcoin

still has some liquidity to take from

the altcoin market and the fact that

altcoins could still easily drop from

the current levels over the next several

months another 33% now that might sound

like a lot but just a few months ago I

was saying they're going to drop you

know over 50% and now they've already

dropped you know 25 of that 50% so to me

it does seem like it's playing out we

also saw the Blue Chip dominance Bitcoin

plus e dominance get a weekly close

Above 73% This was the same level that

provided tough resistance last cycle we

have finally broken through it we also

saw uh Bitcoin dominance plus usdt

dominance it has not yet broken through

61% but it is getting relatively close

and you can see that last cycle we set a

high we came back again and then it was

on the next attempt we finally broke

through set a high came back again set a

slightly higher high just like we did

back back over here and then we finally

broke through I think we're building up

to that right now I think we're going to

break through and I think it's going to

go back up over here and if you look at

usdt dominance you will see a very

similar pattern right that we've been

talking about forever and in fact usct

dominance is now back above the bullmark

spb you also saw others Bitcoin Wicked

down again this is one of those things

where you know you look at others

Bitcoin and I I think to myself you know

everyone who's been bull posting about

lower market cap alts against Bitcoin

the reality is that they've been in a

downtrend since January 2024 the real

reality is they've been in a downtrend

since January 2022 and the the sobering

reality that I think a lot of people

should accept is that last cycle all

Bitcoin pairs dropped 60% they then

rallied 60% before rate cuts and then as

rate Cuts just before rate Cuts arrived

they dropped another 60% this cycle they

dropped 60% rallied 60 and maybe they're

just they're currently 33% down in maybe

a final 60% drop so again it's a long

process it's playing out Bitcoin is is

taking in that liquidity it's it's above

the bullmark sport band um or it's at

least above the 21 M EMA and while it is

above the 21 M EMA a lot of altcoins are

not right a is below it Dot's below it

Avalanche is below it salana is below it

madic is below it xrp is below it link

is below it B&B slightly above it but

again most of them are below it right

Doge below it Litecoin typically below

it and it is again now uni slightly

above right but again the whole idea is

that the the number of altcoins that are

outperforming Bitcoin are becoming fewer

and fewer and fewer and one way to

visualize that actually is to Simply go

look at the advanced decline index of

the top 100 cryptocurrencies and you can

see I mean this is an outright

capitulation right here right I mean

there's a good chance that we're going

to take out the October

low in terms of the advanced decline

index the top 100 cryptocurrencies

essentially what you're seeing is the

breadth of the market is collapsing

while the liquidity goes from the higher

risk assets to the Blue Chips mainly

Bitcoin and eth and you know this is one

of those reasons why you see eth still

holding up better that I mean you know

eth is still above its bullmark sport

band just like Bitcoin in fact eth is

doing a little bit better than Bitcoin

is right now uh on the back of the news

we had from the spot ETF but I I that

could easily change right it could

easily change so again

I look at this I look at all these

things and I say you know from a

practical perspective I mean I feel like

everything we've talked about over the

last several years in in a really

abstract sense it's happening right it's

happening you're seeing Bitcoin

dominance continue to go up you're

seeing all Bitcoin pairs break down

you're seeing you know Blue Chip

dominance break up you're seeing Bitcoin

dominance both usct dominance break up

you were seeing all USD pairs break down

just just before potential rate cuts it

all seems like it's playing

out but it it's just playing out on a on

a time frame much longer than than many

viewers especially of other channels are

care to operate on right if it doesn't

happen tomorrow then it's wrong right if

it doesn't happen next week then it's

wrong this is a macro view that takes

place over many many years right and I

said a long time ago exposure to crypto

in my opinion should be mostly limited

to bitcoin until looser monetary policy

arrives that does not mean Bitcoin can't

take a hit it does not mean that it can

it can take a hit 2019 showed us that

when loer monetary policy arrives or

just before it arrives even even the

Giants can B the KN right I don't know

exactly when that's going to occur I

don't know if we're already in this

pattern right here but guys and we we we

talked about this as well ethusd did the

same exact thing you know going into the

merge if you remember right if you look

at what happened with e USD remember

that going into the merge ethusd put in

a high one month before the

merge and then it put in a lower high at

the merge right high was in August 2022

of that rally lower high at the date of

the merge and then another lower high

you see that high lower high lower high

after the merge right the merge was the

lower high and then a month after that

it was another lower high same thing

here with Bitcoin you see this you get a

high a month before the

having a lower high the month of the

having and then a lower high the month

after the having it's the same I mean

it's a very similar Trend and we talked

about this months ago but what's

frustrating is you know when you when

you when you talk about it you talk

about these rallies that can go back up

to the range highs get rejected go back

down the bullmark sport bit it's just a

long process it takes place over many

many months and you know the the view is

not going to change right and you know

my view is not going to change

tomorrow if all Bitcoin pairs go down

20% if they go up 20% it's not going to

change it's based on a larger macro

Theory right that takes years to play

out right and I I I just think we're

still in the process where you're

watching the the systematic devaluation

of all Bitcoin pairs I think it's just

happening a year later in this cycle

than it happened in last cycle

there you have it there's your update to

the Bitcoin bullmark SP band which is

really just another Bitcoin dominance

video If you guys like the content make

sure you subscribe to the channel give

the video a thumbs up and again check

out into the cryptoverse premium at inth

cryptoverse decom I'll see you guys next

time bye