Morgan Stanley Turunkan Peringkat Saham RI, Apa Efeknya?
Summary
TLDRMorgan Stanley has downgraded its rating for Indonesian stocks to 'underweight' due to fiscal policy concerns and the strengthening of the US dollar against the Rupiah. This decision has introduced investment risks and uncertainty in the Indonesian stock market index. The bank's strategist, including Daniel, acknowledges the uncertainty and the potential financial burden of promised programs like free lunches and milk by the elected president, Prabowo Subianto. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Bank Indonesia's upcoming decision have intensified market uncertainty. Despite this, the domestic investor sentiment remains unaffected, and the market shows resilience with the potential for capital gains. The World Bank has upgraded Indonesia's economic growth projections, indicating a positive outlook for corporate earnings and a possible increase in the stock index by year-end.
Takeaways
- 📉 Morgan Stanley has downgraded its rating for Indonesian stocks to 'underweight' due to concerns over fiscal policy and the strengthening US dollar against the Rupiah.
- 💼 The decision by Morgan Stanley is influenced by the potential impact of Indonesia's fiscal policy and the strengthening of the US dollar on investment in Indonesian shares.
- 🏦 The report from Morgan Stanley highlights the risks to investments due to the fiscal policy and the strengthening of the US dollar, which could affect the performance of the Indonesian stock market index.
- 🗣️ Daniel from Morgan Stanley expresses uncertainty about the direction of Indonesia's fiscal policy in the future, including programs promised by the president-elect, such as free lunches and milk, which could significantly burden the national finances.
- 💲 The strengthening of the US dollar and high US interest rates are putting pressure on the Rupiah, exacerbating the situation for Indonesian companies that are already facing revenue prospects decline.
- 📈 The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on June 12th and the upcoming decision by the Bank of Indonesia next week are intensifying market uncertainty.
- 🌐 The impact of Morgan Stanley's downgrade on the investment climate and the outlook for Indonesian stocks is a topic of discussion, with the potential for dynamic changes in market sentiment.
- 📊 Despite the downgrade, the speaker, Josua from Bank Permata, believes that the performance of corporate earnings and the potential upgrade by the World Bank for Indonesia's economic growth indicate positive prospects for the stock market.
- 📈 The speaker suggests that the market may still have potential for growth, with expectations that the Federal Reserve's policy will become more accommodative in the coming year, which could support the Indonesian stock market.
- 🤔 The transcript reflects a nuanced view of the market, acknowledging the influence of global financial institutions like Morgan Stanley but also considering the resilience and potential of the Indonesian economy and stock market.
- 🔮 Looking forward, the speaker forecasts a potential upward movement in the stock market index, possibly reaching 7,000 by the end of the year, based on economic projections and market resilience.
Q & A
Why did Morgan Stanley downgrade the Indonesian stock market to 'underweight'?
-Morgan Stanley downgraded the Indonesian stock market to 'underweight' due to concerns over two main factors: fiscal policy and the strengthening of the US dollar against the Rupiah.
What are the potential risks to investment in Indonesian stocks according to Morgan Stanley's report?
-The report suggests that Indonesia's fiscal policy and the strengthening of the US dollar pose risks to investment in Indonesian stocks, creating uncertainty in the market.
What is the potential impact of President-elect Prabowo Subianto's promised programs on the national finances?
-The promised programs such as free lunch and milk could potentially burden the national finances significantly, adding to the fiscal concerns.
How does the strengthening of the US dollar and high US interest rates affect the Indonesian Rupiah?
-The strengthening of the US dollar and high US interest rates put pressure on the Rupiah's exchange rate, exacerbating the situation for Indonesian companies that are already facing revenue prospects decline.
What was the decision of the Federal Reserve on June 12th that could affect the Indonesian financial market?
-The decision of the Federal Reserve on interest rates on June 12th could have a significant impact on the Indonesian financial market, adding to the existing uncertainty.
What is the meaning of 'underweight' in the context of Morgan Stanley's recommendation for the Indonesian stock market?
-In the context of investment recommendations, 'underweight' means that Morgan Stanley suggests reducing the proportion of Indonesian stocks in their portfolio, replacing them with stocks from other countries that have been upgraded to 'overweight'.
How does the domestic investor's perspective differ from Morgan Stanley's view on the Indonesian stock market?
-Domestic investors might see the downgrade as an opportunity for capital gains, taking advantage of market dynamics that are not necessarily aligned with foreign investors' sentiments.
What is the general impact of Morgan Stanley's rating changes on the Bursa Efek Indonesia (Indonesian Stock Exchange)?
-Morgan Stanley's rating changes, especially during portfolio rebalancing, can significantly affect the Bursa Efek Indonesia as it influences the direction of the market.
What is the current status of the IHSG (Indonesian Stock Exchange Composite Index) compared to the beginning of 2024?
-The IHSG started the year 2024 around the 7,300 level and is currently at the 6,800 level, indicating a decrease year to date.
What are the expectations for the IHSG's performance by the end of 2024?
-The expectations are that the IHSG will be influenced by corporate earnings and the World Bank's recent upgrade of Indonesia's economic growth projection for the year, suggesting potential for an increase in corporate earnings.
What is the potential direction of the IHSG according to the economic growth projections and market expectations?
-The potential direction of the IHSG is towards 7,000 by the end of the year, considering the resilient economic growth projections and the expectation of a more open stance from the Federal Reserve in the following year.
Outlines
📉 Morgan Stanley Downgrades Indonesian Stock to Underweight
Morgan Stanley has downgraded Indonesian stocks to 'underweight' due to concerns over fiscal policy and the strengthening of the US dollar against the Rupiah. The firm's note highlights the impact of Indonesia's fiscal policy and the US dollar's appreciation on investment risks. The uncertainty surrounding the prediction of the Indonesian stock market index is causing experts to question the future of the country's stock prospects. Morgan Stanley's strategy, including comments from strategist Daniel, reflects a cautious approach towards the uncertainty, particularly regarding Indonesia's fiscal policy in the upcoming period. Programs like free lunches and milk promised by the elected president, Prabowo Subianto, are seen as potentially burdening the national finances significantly. Moreover, the US dollar's appreciation and high US interest rates are exerting pressure on the Rupiah's exchange rate, worsening the situation for Indonesian companies that are already experiencing a decline in revenue prospects. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in June and the upcoming decision by the Bank of Indonesia are intensifying market uncertainty.
🤔 Domestic Investors' Response to Underweight Rating
Despite Morgan Stanley's 'underweight' rating for Indonesian stocks, domestic investors may not be overly concerned by the change in the investment landscape. Recent trends show that local investors have not been significantly swayed by foreign investor shifts. Instead, they may seize the opportunity to capitalize on potential capital gains. The dynamic nature of such ratings was evident during the early stages of the pandemic in 2020 when Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating for Indonesian stocks. The current situation is also subject to change based on assumptions and there is no definitive financial assurance yet. The discussion also touched upon the performance of the stock market index, which has seen a decline from the beginning of the year but remains relatively higher compared to the same period last year. The World Bank's recent upgrade to Indonesia's economic growth projection for this year, despite being flat, indicates potential for corporate earnings improvement. Sectoral analysis of companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) shows that their performance has been generally good, with decent profit margins and fundamental strength. This suggests a positive momentum for investors to re-enter the market, particularly for stocks with strong fundamentals. The sentiment from Morgan Stanley is not expected to significantly influence the projection or direction of the IHSG in the future.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Morgan Stanley
💡Underweight
💡Fiscal Policy
💡US Dollar
💡Rupiah
💡Investor Sentiment
💡Federal Reserve
💡Bank of Indonesia
💡Interest Rates
💡Corporate Earnings
💡Economic Growth
💡Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
Highlights
Morgan Stanley downgrades Indonesia's stock rating to underweight due to fiscal policy and the strengthening of the US dollar.
The fiscal policy of Indonesia and the strengthening of the US dollar pose risks to investment in Indonesian stocks.
Morgan Stanley's strategy includes Daniel, who expresses uncertainty about the direction of Indonesia's fiscal policy in the future.
Programs such as free lunches and milk promised by the elected president, Prabowo Subianto, are considered potentially significant financial burdens.
The appreciation of the US dollar and high US interest rates put pressure on the Rupiah, exacerbating the situation for Indonesian companies.
The decision of the Federal Reserve on June 12th and the upcoming decision by Bank Indonesia increase market uncertainty.
The impact of Morgan Stanley's downgrade on the investment climate and the prospects of Indonesian stocks is uncertain.
Josua, the head economist of Bank Permata, discusses the influence of Morgan Stanley's decision on the stock market.
Morgan Stanley also downgraded Mexico's stock rating, drawing a connection between political stability and economic policy.
The government's upcoming spending programs must be realistic and approved by the legislative body.
The Federal Reserve's decision has a more significant impact on the financial market than Morgan Stanley's rating change.
The meaning of 'underweight' implies that Morgan Stanley will reduce the weight of Indonesian stocks in their portfolio.
Domestic investors may take advantage of the situation for potential capital gains.
Morgan Stanley's rating changes are dynamic and can change direction based on new information.
The Indonesian stock index has declined from the beginning of the year, with potential for recovery.
Corporate earnings and economic growth projections influence the potential of the stock index.
The World Bank has upgraded Indonesia's economic growth projection for this year, indicating potential for corporate earnings.
Fundamental analysis of Indonesian companies shows good performance, offering a good opportunity for investors.
Despite Morgan Stanley's sentiment, the fundamental performance of companies may drive the stock index upwards.
The head economist predicts the stock index could reach 7,000 by the end of the year, considering economic resilience and potential Federal Reserve policy changes.
Transcripts
Morgan Stanley menurunkan peringkat
saham Indonesia menjadi underweight
karena pertimbangan dua faktor utama
yaitu kebijakan fiskal dan penguatan
nilai tukar dolar Amerika terhadap nilai
tukar Rupiah Morgan Stanley dalam
catatannya menyampaikan kebijakan fiskal
Indonesia dan penguatan Dolar Amerika
menimbulkan risiko terhadap investasi
saham hal ini membuat prediksi indeks
harga saham gabungan bursef Indonesia
diliputi ketidakpastian para ahli
strategi Morgan Stanley termasuk Daniel
menyatakan ka m terhadap ketidakpastian
arah kebijakan fiskal Indonesia di masa
mendatang program-program seperti
pemberian makan siang dan susu gratis
yang dijanjikan presiden terpilih
Prabowo Subianto dinilai berpotensi
membebani keuangan negara secara
signifikan Selain itu menguatnya nilai
tukar dolar Amerika dan tingginya suku
bunga Amerika Serikat juga memberikan
tekanan kepada nilai tukar Rupiah yang
memperparah situasi bagi
perusahaan-perusahaan di Indonesia yang
sudah mengalamielemahan prospek
pendapatan perahan rekendas ini
terjadijel keputusan suku bunga oleh
Federal Reserve pada 12 Juni yang lalu
dan keputusan Bank Indonesia pekan depan
yang semakin mempertegas ketidakpastian
di
pasar apa sebetulnya dampak penurunan
peringkat saham pada iklim investasi dan
prospek saham Indonesia ke depan kita
akan bertanya bersama lewat sambungan
Zoom kepala ekonom Bank Permata
jos Pak Josua Selamat pagi Selamat pagi
bang Leo ya kita e tadi malam mendapat
informasi keputusan Bank Sentral Amerika
Serikat setelah kemarin kita mendapat
informasi Morgan Stanley salah satu nama
yang berpengaruh di pasar keuangan
Global memberikan rekomendasi
underweight bagi bursa saham Indonesia
Kalau Anda lihat sebetulnya yang mana
yang sebetulnya akan lebih aruh kepada e
prospek saham-saham ataupun Bursa Efek
Indonesia Pak joswa Ya saya pikir memang
keputusan ataupun strategist dari Morgan
Stanley menurunkan rating saham
Indonesia menjadi underwe ini Tentunya
beralasan dan kita menghormati itu semua
Meskipun memang kita perlu
mempertanyakan ya karena e kalau kita
bicara terkait dengan fiskal semestinya
yang di lebih dulu adalah ee obligasinya
ya Jadi ini yang menarik adalah Justru
malah saham-saham ee Indonesia yang
sudah di underwe diturunkan menjadi and
Rid dan ini pun juga kalau kita lihat
bamaan dalam Reportnya eh Morgan Seleni
juga menurunkan peringkat dari meksico
yang memang kalau kita lihat menang
merahnya dua negara ini Indonesia dan
Meksiko memang ee saat ini eh terkait
dengan politik ya terkait dengan apakah
EE apa kestabilan politik dan juga
bagaimana kebijakan ekonomi pada
pemerintahan Berikutnya ini akan cukup
berpengaruh dan kalau kita melihat
sekali lagi secara umum ee dari siklus
politik dan juga siklus apbnnya ee
tentunya sekalipun memang ada agenda
besar dari pemerintah berikutnya namun
ee pemerintah pun juga harus realistis
karena pada akhirnya pemerintah dalam
mengusulkan APBN akan ee mengusulkannya
kepada DPR ya sehingga saya tetap
melihat bahwa ee sekalipun memang ada
program-program belanja yang cukup besar
namun pada akhirnya pemerintah akan
harus realistis dan terkait dengan
pertanyaan tadi saya melihat bahwa
kebijakan ee keputusan Fed di rapat fmc
tadi malam ini berdampak lebih besar ya
pada pasar keuangan kita e Karena pada
hari ini sendiri eh ihsg juga dibuka
menguat bersama e pasar busara lainnya
regional dan juga rupiah pun juga
cenderung menguat dan pasar obligasi pun
juga menguat jadi memang kita melihat
bahwa secara umum ee lebih lebih
berdampak keputusan dari rapat fmc tadi
malam untuk investor eh saham investor
pasar modal memang Morgan Stanley eh
sering juga membuat e perubahan arah
Pasar ya Pak Josua ya kalau kita ingat
ada Morgan Stanley Capital indexs setiap
kali ada rebalancing ada perubahan
portofolio itu pasti berdampak ke Bursa
Efek Indonesia tapi eh diberikan
gambaran singkat saja mungkin pak Josua
apa sebetulnya arti underweight karena
kita juga tahu ada overweight ada
neutral ini artinya seberapa ragu
sebetulnya Morgan Stanley kepada prospek
investasi khususnya saham dan juga
obligasi mungkin di Indonesia ya Jadi
kalau kita lihat di saat bersamaan ee
makna dari underweight itu artinya e
bobot saham-saham Indonesia eh yang
masuk dalam portfolionya morggen Stanley
ini akan mungkin akan berkurang ya dan
akan tergantikan oleh saham-saham negara
lain yang di-upgrade ya menjadi di
overweight ya Sehingga itu ee apa
namanya makna dari underweight namun ya
kalau kita lihat dari sisi ee dampaknya
buat investor e domestik justru ya tadi
ya sekalipun ee kalau kita lihat trennya
belakangan ini kan sebenarnya ee
investor domestik ataupun lokal ini
tidak terlalu latah ya apa memang ada
perubahan dari ee perubahan peta dari ee
apa namanya dari investor asingnya
Justru malah investor lokalnya ataupun
domestiknya bisa mengambil ee momentum
ya untuk untuk mendapatkan Capital Gain
di sana dan kembali lagi karena ini
adalah hal yang dinamis ya Jadi kalau
kita melihat juga pada saat ee apa
namanya eh awal pandemi yang lalu pun
juga eh Morgan juga cukup menarik bahwa
sebelum pandem masih pandemi berlangsung
di tahun 2020 eh Morgan S pun juga
melakukan rating upgrade ya Eh terhadap
saham Indonesia jadi saya pikir ini akan
bersifat dinamis dan kembali lagi ee ya
ini hanya berdasarkan asumsi saja ya
karena belum ada ee apa
namanyauangan yang cukup yang cukup
meyakinkan seperti itu kalau bicara
indeks harga saham gabungan sendiri Eh
Pak Josua kalau kita lihat dari Januari
tahun ini itu ada di level sekitar
7.300-an dan sekarang kita melihat
indeks itu di
6.800-an kalau kita bicara year to date
kalau lihat eh 1 tahun yang lalu persis
di Juni itu kurang lebih ada di
6.750-an jadi J kalau kita pakai
perspektif 1 tahun sebetulnya indeks
sekarang ada di relatif lebih tinggi
tapi kalau dari awal tahun ini indeks
sekarang lebih rendah dibandingkan
pembukaan Di Januari 2024 prospeknya
seperti apa anda lihat Eh Pak Josua
Katakanlah sampai akhir tahun ini ya
Jadi kalau kita ee mengacu kepada
Bagaimana potensi dari indeks harga
saham ini akan sangat dipengaruhi juga
oleh kinerja ataupun corporate earnings
ya dari saham-saham ataupun emit yang
ada di dalamnya dan kalau kita melihat
dari proyeksi yang baru saja kemarin
juga Bank Dunia malah justru mengupgrade
ya pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di
tahun ini meskipun flat ya tahun ini dan
tahun depan 5% namun ini menunjukkan
bahwa ada sebenarnya ada potensiorate
peningkatan corporate lenings dan kalau
kita misalkan kita mengevaluasi dari
secara sektoral dari e emiten-emiten
yang ada di ihsg secara umum memang
kinerjanya masih cukup baik ya kalau
kita melihat dari seperting margin lalu
juga dari sisi kinerja lainnya ya E
meskipun memang sales agak menurun untuk
beberapa sektor namun dari sisi
fundamental Sebenarnya masih menunjukkan
kinerja yang cukup baik jadi artinya ee
kalau kita mengacu lagi kepada ee
analisis fundamental mestinya ini
menjadi momentum cukup baik ya untuk ee
investor untuk masuk lagi kepada
saham-saham yang memang fundamentalnya
baik sehingga diharapkan itu tidak e apa
sentimen dari Morgan s itu tidak akan
berpengaruh banyak ya kepada e proyeksi
ataupun arah dari ihg ke depannya
terakhir singkat saja bisa ke 7.000 lagi
tidak indeksnya Pak Josua Ya saya pikir
dengan tadi dengan pertumbuhan proyeksi
pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun ini dan tahun
depan pun juga setidaknya tetap resilen
5% ee harapan Kami memang dan juga ini
dengan ekspektasi bahwa Fed ruang
penurunannya cukup terbuka lebih terbuka
lagi di Tahun depan saya pikir ini akan
membuat ee potensi ee apa penguatan dari
ihsg dan juga bersama dengan pasar
obligasi dan juga rupiah ini cukup
terbuka sehingga kami tetap melihat arah
ee ke apa ee akan mengarah kepada 7.000
setidaknya sampai dengan akhir tahun ini
Terima kasih pencerahan yang Anda
berikan kepala ekonom Bank Permata Josua
pardd kepada kami Selamat pagi Pak Josua
jelajahi cara baru mendapatkan informasi
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