PlanB Bitcoin Analysis July 2025

Summary

In this video, the speaker discusses Bitcoin's current market performance and future predictions, emphasizing the bull market dynamics and the ongoing rotation of Bitcoin from self-custody into ETFs. While Bitcoin recently hit a $27,000 all-time high, predictions suggest a longer-term bullish cycle with a potential reach towards $500,000. Key indicators like the stock-to-flow model, RSI, and moving averages are analyzed, with the speaker forecasting further upward momentum despite potential short-term volatility. However, the speaker stresses the unpredictability of the market and advises viewers to conduct their own research before making investment decisions.

Takeaways

• 😀 Bitcoin reached a new all-time high in June, jumping to $27,000, with predictions for more all-time highs in the months to come.
• 📉 The stock-to-flow model predicts Bitcoin could reach $500k, but there are still almost 3 years left in this market cycle, offering plenty of time to reach that level.
• 🤔 40% of people believe Bitcoin will not reach $200,000 by the end of 2026, indicating a differing view on Bitcoin's future price trajectory.
• 📊 The Bitcoin market is currently in a bull market, but many wonder why the price isn't higher despite institutional investment and increased ETF inflows.
• 💰 Investors are rotating from Bitcoin self-custody into ETFs and companies like MicroStrategy, leading to a relatively flat bull market rather than new money inflows.
• ⚖️ In Europe, increasing regulations on crypto, like MIKA, make self-custody more difficult, pushing people toward ETFs as a more accessible option.
• 🔄 Once the rotation from self-custody to ETFs is complete, new money inflows are expected to drive the price higher, reflecting Bitcoin's scarcity and supply shortage.
• 📈 The market cycles model predicts bull, distribution, bear, and accumulation phases based on on-chain data. Predicting a bear market bottom is easier, but predicting a bull market top is much harder.
• 🔴 In 2013, Bitcoin briefly entered a distribution phase before returning to a bull market, similar to what happened in 2021 after the Chinese mining ban. It’s difficult to predict the exact timing of market turns.
• 📉 The current RSI is at 70, a level traditionally considered 'overbought' in traditional finance, but for Bitcoin, this level is not concerning. The average RSI for Bitcoin typically ranges between 40-95.
• 📅 With Bitcoin's price at $107,000, it is above the 200-week moving average ($50,000) and the 2-year realized price ($84,000), indicating strong bull market behavior and growth potential.
• 💡 The stock-to-flow model's prediction of $500k for Bitcoin's price remains in the range of possibility, though 40% of people believe Bitcoin will not reach this level by 2026.

Q & A

What is the significance of Bitcoin's recent price jump to $27,000 in June?

The $27,000 jump marks a new monthly close and an all-time high for Bitcoin, signaling continued upward momentum. This aligns with predictions for Bitcoin's future growth, with more all-time highs expected in the coming months.

How far are we from reaching the $500k target for Bitcoin according to the stock-to-flow model?

We are still far from reaching the $500k target predicted by the stock-to-flow model, but there are almost three years left in the current cycle, meaning there is ample time for Bitcoin to reach this level.

What is the current sentiment around Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by 2026?

40% of people believe Bitcoin will not reach $200,000 by the end of 2026. This skepticism is based on the idea that Bitcoin’s price will experience diminishing returns and may not surpass the $200k mark in the next 1.5 years.

Why is the price of Bitcoin not higher despite large institutional buying?

The price of Bitcoin isn't significantly higher because many investors are rotating out of self-custody into ETFs and Bitcoin treasury companies like MicroStrategy. This rotation, rather than new inflows of money, is driving the market, and the overall market is flat as a result.

What is the impact of the regulatory environment on Bitcoin investments?

In the U.S., the regulatory environment has softened after Trump's era, while in Europe, regulations like Mika are targeting self-custody. This makes it difficult for people to sell Bitcoin, leading to more investments through ETFs to avoid these barriers.

How does the proprietary market cycle model work?

The market cycle model is based on on-chain data and transforms variables into one of four market phases: bull market, distribution, bear market, and accumulation. The model accurately predicts the end of bear markets and the start of accumulation phases but struggles to predict the top of bull markets.

Why was it difficult to predict the top of the 2021 bull market?

The difficulty in predicting the top of the 2021 bull market stemmed from the market's behavior after the Chinese mining ban, which caused a dip. The return to red signals led many, including the speaker, to believe the bull market would resume, only for the market to experience a short-lived rally followed by a distribution phase.

What is the significance of the RSI reaching 70 in Bitcoin’s market?

An RSI of 70 in traditional finance indicates that an asset is overbought. However, for Bitcoin, the normal RSI range is between 40-45 and 80-95. An RSI of 70 is considered relatively neutral for Bitcoin, though it still signals strong market momentum.

What are the implications of the RSI wobble seen in 2019 and 2024?

The RSI wobble seen in 2019 and again in 2024 indicated moments of market uncertainty and FOMO, which were followed by price disappointments. In 2024, the RSI showed similar behavior with the introduction of ETFs and a short-lived market surge, which didn't lead to sustained price increases.

What is the expected price of Bitcoin in July if the RSI continues its upward trend?

If the RSI continues its upward trend, Bitcoin could reach an RSI of 75 by the end of July. This would imply a price around $125,000, with further price surges expected in the coming months driven by FOMO and strong market momentum.