Betting My Entire Portfolio on Hims, Palantir and 3 Other Stocks

Summary

ビデオスクリプトの概要として、投資家が自身のポートフォリオの構築方法と選んだ株について詳しく説明しています。彼はリスクに対して高いリターンが期待できる株を選び、長期的な投資視点を持っています。AMD、Tesla、Spotify、Palantir、およびヘルスケア関連のHなど、彼が選んだ5つの株の詳細な理由とそれぞれの成長ポテンシャルについて語り、これらがどのようにして市場で独自の地位を築き、将来的に大きなリターンをもたらすと期待しているかを説明しています。

Takeaways

• 📈 ポートフォリオの投資戦略は、非対称性のある潜在的な利益を持つ株を選び、そのうちの1つでポートフォリオ全体を返す可能性があるものを選ぶ。
• 🎯 投資のホライズンは数十年で、成功すれば数十年後には2つの企業が多倍の成長を遂げ、他は失敗する可能性がある。
• 🚀 AMDとTeslaの保有株は過去10年間でそれぞれ約308倍、10倍の成長を遂げており、最近の投資であるSpotifyとPalantirも3倍の成長を記録している。
• 💊 H社は、世界初のAIを活用したヘルスケアクローズループを構築しており、患者数とデータを通じて競争優位を強化する。
• 💻 AMDはチップレット技術を活用して、NVIDIAのGPU市場での優位性を挑戦し、AIをさまざまなビジネスセグメントに展開する。
• 🛠️ Teslaは製造効率、AI能力、エネルギー技術を組み合わせて、世界中の物質生産を革命化し、豊かさをもたらす可能性がある。
• 🌐 PalantirはデジタルツインとAI、ブロックチェーンを活用してビジネスプロセスを革新し、企業の効率を劇的に向上させる。
• 🎵 Spotifyはオーディオ市場をリードし、新しいオーディオ分野に進出し、マージンを改善することで、Googleのような検索エンジンとしての役割を果たす可能性がある。
• 📊 H社は、コスト優位性、垂直展開、組織的特性、AIドリブンの洞察、パーソナライゼーション、そしてオペレーティングレバレッジの6つの価値ドライバーを通じて成長を続ける。
• 📈 ポートフォリオの各企業は、市場における独自の位置づけと成長戦略を持っており、それらは将来の成功と価値創造につながる。
• 🌟 投資家はこれらの企業の成長と成功に賭けており、それによってポートフォリオ全体の潜在的な利益が大幅に増加する可能性がある。

Q & A

投資ポートフォリオの全体的な構造についてどのように考えていますか？

ポートフォリオは非対称性のある潜在的な株を選び、その上位利益が潜在的なダウンサイドよりもはるかに大きいと信じている株に投資しています。1つの株でポートフォリオ全体を何倍にも返すことができる可能性がある株を所有することを目指しています。

投資のホライズンはどのくらいですか？

投資のホライズンは数十年であり、四半期や年ではなく、成功すれば10年以上経過した時に成功がどのように見えるかをグラフで示しています。

AMDとTeslaの保有期間におけるパフォーマンスはどのくらいですか？

AMDとTeslaの保有期間で、それぞれ約308倍と10倍の増加があります。

最近の投資であるSpotifyとPalantirのパフォーマンスはどのようですか？

最近の投資であるSpotifyとPalantirは、現在3倍の増加しており、まだ始まったばかりだと思われます。

Himsという会社がどのような特徴を持っていますか？

Himsは、患者と医師をアプリを通じてつなぎ、自動薬局施設を通じて薬剤の要求を満たすヘルスケア会社であり、世界初のAIヘルスケアクローズループを構築しています。

Himsが持つ6つの核心的な価値ドライバーとは何ですか？

Himsの6つの核心的な価値ドライバーは、コストアドバンテージ、拡大する垂直分野、組織の特性、AIドリブンインサイト、パーソナライゼーション、そしてそれらのドライバーによるオペレーティングレバレッジの向上です。

AMDの今後10年間の潜在的な成長をどのように見積もていますか？

AMDは、チップレット技術を活用して、異なるコンピューティングユニットを接続し、AIを製品ラインナップ全体に組み込むことで、20倍の成長が見込まれます。

Teslaの将来のビジョンはどのようなものですか？

Teslaは、製造効率、AI能力、およびエネルギー能力を組み合わせて、人類のために豊かさをもたらすプラットフォームを築き上げる可能性があります。

Palantirが目指しているビジネスモデルの変革とは何ですか？

Palantirは、デジタルツインとAI、ブロックチェーンを活用して、ビジネスの核心プロセスを変革し、情報ゲームをより効率的にプレイすることができる組織を作り出そうとしています。

Spotifyの今後の成長戦略には何がありますか？

Spotifyは、新しい音の縦industryを拡大し、マージンを改善することで成長を続け、オーディオ空間でのAmazon Web Servicesと同様の地位を確立する可能性があります。

これらの投資先の企業が共有する2つの基本原則とは何ですか？

これらの企業が共有する2つの基本原則は、消費者ロイヤルティの育成と、絶え間ないイノベーションの受け入れです。

投資ポートフォリオの最適化のために、どのようなアプローチをとっていますか？

投資ポートフォリオの最適化のために、失敗した投資を売却し、得た資本をHimsなどの成功した投資に集中しています。

これらの投資先企業が直面している市場の可能性と課題について説明してください。

これらの企業は、それぞれが革新的な市場でのリーダーシップを築いており、市場の可能性は大きくありますが、市場の誤解や競争など、課題も存在しています。

Outlines

00:00

😀 ポートフォリオの戦略と選定理由

この段落では、話者は自分のポートフォリオの全体像と選定理由について説明しています。非対称的な潜在力を持つ株を選び、長期的なマルチベガーの可能性がある企業に投資しています。投資の地平は数十年で、成功すれば1つの企業がポートフォリオ全体を数倍にできると見ています。AMDやTeslaなどの過去の投資が大きく成功しており、最近の投資であるSpotifyやPalantirも好調で、Hという企業は特に注目されています。

05:01

😉 Hのビジネスモデルと成長戦略

第二段落では、Hという企業のビジネスモデルと成長戦略について詳細に説明しています。Hは患者と医師をアプリを通じてつなぎ、自動薬局を利用して薬品を提供する企業で、AIを活用して世界初のヘルスケアクローズループを構築しています。Hの強みは、コスト優位性、新規分野の拡大、組織的な特徴、AIドリブンの洞察、パーソナライゼーション、そしてオペレーティングレバレッジの向上によるです。これらの要因がHの今後の成長を促進すると見ています。

10:02

😲 AMDの未来予測と成長戦略

この段落では、AMDという企業の将来性と成長戦略について語られています。話者はAMDが今後10年間で20倍の成長が見込まれると予想しており、その根拠はチップレット技術の専門知識とAI技術の活用です。AMDは異なるビジネスセグメントを通じてAI技術をパッケージングし、マーケットシェアを拡大する戦略を展開しています。また、AI at the edgeという新しいビジネス分野での成功も期待されています。

15:03

🚀 Teslaの革新的ビジョンと成長への道

第四段落では、Teslaの革新的なビジョンと成長への道について解説しています。Teslaは自動車生産を超えたプラットフォームを構築しており、製造効率、AI能力、エネルギー技術を組み合わせて世界に豊かさをもたらすと期待されています。Teslaの製造能力の向上は、AIと再生可能エネルギーの分野に影響を与えており、これはより多くのデータを生成し、より良いセルフドライビング技術を開発するのを助けています。

20:05

🌟 Palantirの潜在力と革新的なビジネスモデル

この段落では、Palantirという企業の潜在力と革新的なビジネスモデルについて述べています。PalantirはデジタルツインとAI、ブロックチェーンを活用してビジネスの最適化を促進しており、新しいタイプの組織として注目されています。Palantirは業界に新しいコンピューティング販売の方法を提供し、クラウド業界のトップランナーになる可能性があります。

🎧 Spotifyの成長戦略と市場での位置づけ

最後の段落では、Spotifyの成長戦略と市場での位置づけについて考察しています。Spotifyは新しい音声分野に進出し、ポッドキャストやオーディオブック、教育などに取り組んでおり、創造者とファンの問題を解決する能力に優れています。Spotifyはユーザーの忠誠心を築き、新しい音声分野での成功をもたらしています。また、Spotifyの財務状況も良好で、新規分野での拡大とマージンの改善が期待されています。

Keywords

💡ポートフォリオ

ポートフォリオとは、株式や債券などの金融商品を所有する投資家の資産の集まりです。このビデオでは、投資家のポートフォリオ構成とその戦略について議論されており、特に特定の5つの企業に注力していることが示されています。

💡非対称性ポテンシャル

非対称性ポテンシャルとは、投資において利益が大幅に損失を上回ることを意味します。ビデオでは、投資家が利益が潜在的に大幅に損失を上回る株式を選ぶ理由について説明しています。

💡投資ホライズン

投資ホライズンは、投資家の長期的な視点を指します。ビデオでは、投資ホライズンが数十年とされ、成功する企業はその期間内に多数の利益をもたらす可能性があると述べています。

💡マルチベガー

マルチベガーとは、投資において非常に大きな利益をもたらす企業のことです。ビデオでは、特定の企業がマルチベガーのポテンシャルを持っていると述べ、その成功は投資家のポートフォリオ全体に大きな影響を与えると示唆しています。

💡AI クローズループ

AI クローズループは、医療業界において人工知能がデータを収集し、分析し、サービスを改善するサイクルを指します。ビデオでは、Hims社が世界初のAI クローズループを構築していると紹介されており、そのポテンシャルが強調されています。

💡チップレット技術

チップレット技術は、異なるコンピューティングユニットを効率的に接続する手法です。ビデオでは、AMDがこの技術を活用して、競合他社と差別化し、市場シェアを拡大する戦略を説明しています。

💡デジタルツイン

デジタルツインは、実際の物理的な物体やプロセスをデジタルで再現したものです。ビデオでは、Palantirがデジタルツインを利用して、企業のオペレーションを最適化し、新たな価値を生み出す方法について議論しています。

💡情報ゲーム

情報ゲームとは、より良い意思決定を導く洞察を発見することに焦点を当てたゲームです。ビデオでは、財産創造の歴史的プロセスと現代経済における企業の役割を説明する際に用いられています。

💡エッジコンピューティング

エッジコンピューティングは、データの生成地に近い場所で処理を行うことで、遅延を最小限に抑える技術です。ビデオでは、AMDがエッジコンピューティング市場でリーダーシップを確立するポテンシャルがあると述べています。

💡オーディオプラットフォーム

オーディオプラットフォームとは、音楽ストリーミングやその他のオーディオコンテンツを提供するサービスです。ビデオでは、Spotifyがオーディオの主要なプラットフォームとして位置づけ、そのポテンシャルが強調されています。

💡無料キャッシュフロー

無料キャッシュフローは、企業が現金を自由に配分できる額を指します。ビデオでは、特定の企業が無料キャッシュフローを増加させ、その結果、株主に大きな利益をもたらす可能性があると述べています。

Highlights

ポートフォリオ全体をHおよび他の4つの株に賭ける理由を説明。

非対称性のある潜在的な株を選出することで、総利益が潜在的な損失をはるかに上回ることを目指している。

投資のホライズンは数十年で、四半期や年ではなく、成功すれば数十年後には少数の会社がその倍増の可能性を果たすことができる。

AMDとTeslaの保有株が過去10年間でそれぞれ約308倍、10倍の増加。最近の投資であるSpotifyとPalantirも3倍の増加。

H社は、顧客の痛みを解決し、かつ模倣が難しくなる方法で拡大している。

H社は世界初のAI医療クローズループを構築しており、匿名化されたデータを活用して患者の治療を向上させる。

H社は、コスト面での優位性、新規分野の拡大、組織的特徴、AIドリブンの洞察、パーソナライゼーション、そして運用利力の向上を通じて100倍の成長を目指している。

AMDはチップレット技術を活用し、NVIDIAのGPU市場シェアを奪う可能性がある。

Teslaは製造効率、AI能力、エネルギー技術を組み合わせて、世界中の素材生産を革命化する。

PalantirはデジタルツインとAI、ブロックチェーンを活用し、ビジネスプロセスを根本的に変革する。

Spotifyは創造者とファンの間の問題を解決し、新しいオーディオ分野に進出することで成長を続ける。

これらの企業は、情報ゲームをプレイし、より良い意思決定を通じて財産を生み出す。

Palantirは、企業の運用支出を最適化し、多くの業界でのコストを大幅に削減する。

Spotifyは、プレミアムおよび広告サポートの毛利を向上させることで、財務的な変革を目指している。

これらの投資の分析は、個別の投資アイデアを超えた投資の考え方に関するシリーズの最初のビデオである。

Transcripts

you may have seen this on X already but

it's true I'm betting my entire

portfolio and H and four other stocks

but before getting deep into why I've

picked these companies allow me to

explain how I think about the overall

architecture of my portfolio so that it

makes better sense to you why I picked

these companies I essentially pick

stocks that I believe have asymmetric

potential in that the upside is far

larger than the potential downside in

aggregate I seek to own just a handful

of stocks such that any one of them has

high Arts of returning the entire

portfolio many times over in turn I also

picked these companies such that more

than one has a high probability of

performing in this manner the investment

Horizon is decades and not quarters or

years in case of success and in over a

decade's Time success can look as

depicted in the graph that you see below

with perhaps only two companies living

up to the multibagger potential that I

see in them and the rest failing along

the way so far this approach is working

with my AMD and Tesla Holdings up

approximately 308x and 10x respectively

over the last decade of my more recent

Investments Spotify and paler are both

up 3x to date and I believe that both

are just getting started recently I sold

some losers mistakes and concentrated

the resulting Capital into H which is up

over 40% since I initiated the position

him is a pristine example of the type of

company that I teach students to spot in

my 2-hour deep diver course which is

linked in the show's footnotes H

essentially solves a growing volume of

acute customer pains at scale in a way

that is increasingly harder to imitate

profitably and in my view that is the

essential recipe for a long-term

multibagger investment now that you know

how I think about my portfolio I will

dive deep into why I've picked each of

these companies all right but just to

make this more fun before we get into

depth in each of these picks allow me to

do some rapid fire so as I was saying

I'm essentially betting my entire

portfolio on the following five

predictions by the way this is no small

amount of money if I told you how much

it is I guarantee you you would be

relatively in shock especially given the

concentrated nature of the portfolio so

one PS I believe will become one of

America's largest Healthcare Giants

serving as a deflationary force in the

typically inflationary us Healthcare

sector two paler will in my view

transform into the foundational platform

for new ENT RIS is becoming essential

for building businesses from scratch and

in my view generally for operating

businesses in the west three AMD will

rival nvidia's dominance by leveraging

its long-standing expertise in chiplet

technology which Nvidia will eventually

have to fully Embrace for Spotify will

secure its role as the Google of audio

becoming the go-to platform for music

streaming and all things audio so people

will be using this as a search engine

but instead of consuming the information

via video and images and so forth it

will be audio margins will rise

meaningfully as a result and you can

actually already see this happening in

the past few quarters five Tesla will

revolutionize Global material production

achieving abundance through Ultra

efficient manufacturing lowcost energy

and large- scale AI deployment all right

so that's it now let's get into depth

into each of these five picks okay so

now let's get deep into the portfolio in

total I have five companies and the

first one that we're going to be talking

about is H as I've said many times

already HS is a stock with clear 100x

potential H is a T Health company that

connects patients with Physicians via an

app and fulfills medication requirements

via automated Pharmacy facilities most

importantly however H is building the

world's first AI Healthcare Clos loop as

you can see in the graph below with

nearly 1.5 million subscribers and

assuming him has been storing the

anonymized data to date its AI once it

goes Life we'll see in One Day More

patients than a physician can see in 10

lifetimes so that's going to be very

very interesting as H continues to scale

this competitive Advantage will continue

to compound no one else is treating

millions of patients while picking up

data and immediately applying the

resulting insights to iterate an

underlying and vertically integrated

Healthcare infrastructure all other AI

Healthcare Loops out there in the market

require like tedoc a modification of the

sluggish traditional Health Care system

so that is the key distinction to

understand when it comes to processing

whether H is indeed a good investment

idea or not and of course that is up to

you because none of this is financial

advice so the question is apart from

this clear distinction of HS in the

market how is the company going to 100x

going forward and in my view it's going

to do so via the following six core

value drivers which are the following

one a cost Advantage HS can treat a

growing range of conditions at a cost

below What patients would pay out of

pocket via their insurance this is a

strong in an industry that is otherwise

an inflationary hamster wheel I'm not

saying that doctors don't care about

patients but the US Healthcare System is

mostly focused on increasing prices year

after year and H is doing the opposite

so that is a clear Advantage expanding

verticals every quarter H treats more

and more conditions management has thus

far demonstrated great discipline in

picking new verticals with the company

increasing its cash from operations as

we will see towards the end of this

section third extraord AR organizational

properties hims has succeeded in

orchestrating from scratch an operation

based on software Hardware amidst a

hellish landscape which is the

healthcare industry no one in the

healthcare industry is able to make

money the way hims can without

participating in the existing

traditional Insurance system so to give

you an example of HS pulling off an

impossible fetra after another the H IOS

app is currently ranked number 16 in

healthcare in the US App Store just 2

years after after its launch only a

great company can do this and if you go

and check out the ranking you will see

that HS ranks amongst the biggest and

oldest healthcare companies in the US so

and if you go and read my deep Dives you

will see that HS just pull off one

impossible feed after another fourth AI

driven insights him is the world's first

AI close loop in healthcare as I was

saying meaning that it is the only

company that can directly Leverage The

insights its data generates to iterate

the underlying Healthcare infrastructure

this sets up to compound faster than

other players over time five

personalization the combination of more

conditions treated over time will

decrease cost of acquisition and

increase user lifetime value as user

shift towards personalized treatments

this will make H more Irreplaceable for

customers and will make them stick

around longer on the platform six as a

result of this all of these previous

Five drivers a rising operating leverage

as H deploys more verticals and fine

tunes its automated pharmacies its level

of personalization will become

increasingly harder to imitate at scale

this should yield improv the unit

economics over time which are thus far

translating into into an improved cash

flow profile as you can see in the graph

below company number two that we're

going to talk about is AMD which I

believe has 20x potential from here as

I've said in the past on X I believe AMD

is going to 20x again over the next

decade driven fundamentally by a highly

differentiated product good map that the

market still doesn't understand the

market is looking at AI as if it were

only about selling gpus but all of a

and's business segments are effectively

distribution channels via which it can

repackage and then sell its core AI Tech

I believe this distribution Advantage

will pay off in the years to come by

yielding better unit economics for AMD

than otherwise essentially and this is a

very quick summary and you can go and

check out my deep Dives on the company

as you can see depicted in the graph

below amd's chip platform will enable it

to tap into multiple $100 billion plus

business opportunities at a marginal

cost if you're curious as to how exactly

this can happen go and check out my AMD

Deep dive which is available for free in

my substack however the summary is that

this is because chiplets enable AMD to

connect different Computing units at

will in a way that no other company can

do in the semiconductor space notably AI

at the edge can evolve into something

like data center gpus for NVIDIA at

present as I will explain further on in

this write up AI won't be confined to

gpus it'll be absorbed into all

computational platforms over the next

decade all the way from smartphones to

desktop computers and laptops cars and

fridges expertise in chiplets uniquely

positions AMD to connect disperate

computer engines as I was saying and by

extension what this does is it sets up

AMD to infuse all of its products with

AI capabilities over the long run this

is a much better strategy than only

going head-to-head with Nvidia in the

game of selling gpus which by the way

AMD is going to do anyway and I think

that they're going to succeed by

bringing chiplet based gpus to the

market with a differentiated approach so

a different differentiated price and

performance ratio and iterating on its

rocm software AMD already has a great

chance of taking GPU market share from

Nvidia but by simultaneously repurposing

that Tech across its various business

segments AMD increases its overall OD of

success the potential upside in taking

market share from Nvidia is huge but so

is the upside in becoming just as one

example the number one provider of AI

PCS better yet AMD can take on both

Endeavors at a marginal cost because the

competitive advantage in both cases

stems from its triplet platform which

can generalize across the aformentioned

product lineups and Beyond AMD already

has a distribution channel on the PC so

the CPU side this means that even if the

company does not succeed in taking

market share from Nvidia it's still can

obtain a strong return on investment on

its AI Investments via PCS hence the

asymmetry of amd's move into the AI

space Also and this is very very

important this is one of the key

takeaways of this video this Dynamic is

also giving way to amd's new $200

billion AI at the edge business which

promises to evolve into something like

data center gpus for NVIDIA at present

since the sing acquisition AMD has been

positioning itself to dominate this

emerging Space by onboarding sink's

leading fpga technology as you can see

in the graph below although the data is

from 2019 silink is the Undisputed

leader in the fpga market and in turn

these kind of chips fpgas perform like

no other kind of chip possibly can at

the edge AMD is thus uniquely positioned

to capitalize on the AI at the edge

opportunity with fairly insurmountable

barriers of entry and again this is a

$200 billion plus per year opportunity

probably at some point in the next

decade so hypothetical competitors need

to not only surpass amd's fbga

technology which is going to be very

hard but also its interconnect

technology so the technology that it

uses to connect chiplets which is called

Infinity Fabric and they need to do this

if they want to seamlessly connect fbga

with any other computer engine as AMD

can and this is very very hard to do the

third company we're going to talk about

in my portfolio as Tesla which I see

going up 20x over the next decade and

that's just to say something because the

implications of what these guys are

building can be way way bigger than that

over the coming decade or two

essentially while many associate Tesla

primarily with Automotive production is

in fact building a transformative

platform akin to the internet in its

potential impact as Tesla continues to

compound its manufacturing efficiency

its AI capabilities and energy

capabilities mostly in the form of

batteries eventually it is likely to

bring abundance to the world as you can

see depicted in the graph below I call

this Tesla abundance triangle and I

believe that as Tesla brings together

these three verticals it's eventually as

I was saying going to produce a platform

that can May basically abstract workway

for humans worldwide as Tesla forges

ahead with its platform it approaches a

pivotal moment that dwarves previous

Milestones despite recent fluctuations

in Tesla's stock value the company has

actually substantially increased its

manufacturing capabilities compared to a

year ago this enhanced manufacturing

prowers is propelling Tesla's B

expansion into Ai and the renewable

energy sectors together these Endeavors

as I was saying Envision a quote unquote

second Internet of Things where AID

driven robots basically and this is hard

to basically say out loud without

thinking this is crazy these robots will

automate tasks globally globally

leveraging Tesla's core strength in

Rapid economic optimization meaning that

these robots will be cheaper and cheaper

to produce every day and eventually

they'll be all over the place doing

stuff for humans bolstered by this

fundamental capability Tesla is rapidly

advancing its battery solar and vehicle

Technologies yielding invaluable data

for refining its full self-driving

capabilities as the data resivoir grows

so does Tesla's AI expertise and as you

can see in the graphs below recent

Milestones underscore this progress

cumulative miles driven with FSD and

energy storage deployments are growing

exponentially you can see particularly

particularly how in the case of FSD this

is just going through the roof lately we

just went through second inflection

ction point and as it refers to the this

of course is correlated with Tesla's AI

training capacity defined as the number

of h100 equivalent gpus that they have

and in turn energy storage deployments

have also been growing exponentially as

you can see although it's been fairly

flat for the past few quarters but if

you if you basically analyze the

year-over-year growth it's impressive

and this is really a result of Tesla

optimizing unit economics and ultimately

making cars cheaper to produce every

every day so that they can put more cars

on to the road so that they generate

more data and as Tesla gets better at

producing cars they get better at

producing batteries and so this is a

this is a vicious cycle this is a

flywheel that the market is currently

misunderstanding because of all of this

pessimism but eventually I believe that

this will translate into much higher

levels of free cash flow per share while

the automotive Market faces

uncertainties due to the recently Rising

interest rates which now hopefully will

come down Tesla's robust manufacturing

Foundation is fueling exponential growth

in Ai and renewable energy the company's

enduring focus on optimizing unit

economics makes the odds of such a

long-term trajectory quite attractive

and that is why I remain long despite

the pessimism the fourth company is

obviously palena which I see is having

20 to 100 exp Potential from here palent

is set to become a multi- trillion

dollar company over the next decade

because it is revolutionizing the core

process of wealth creation that Humanity

has been using forever basically by

amplifying it this breakthrough is is

currently underappreciated by the market

and is best evidenced by the rapid

growth of the customer count in the US

Commercial Business which you can see in

the graph below through history wealth

has been generated by discovering

innovative ways to organize atoms and

electrons for beneficial purposes at its

heart wealth creation is really about

uncovering insights that drive better

decisions in this Regard in essence

we're all playing a what I call the

information game basically while

abstract this idea becomes tangible

through historical examples Innovations

like semiconductors electricity the

internal combustion engine and the

telephone all come down to basically

rearranging the universe's building

blocks to create wealth in modern

economies most wealth is produced in

turn by private Enterprises and so

companies are essentially optimization

engines striving to maximize output

while minimizing resource use and time

they are concentrated manifestations of

what I was terming as the information

game historically we've been playing

this game in an introductory level

managing companies with subjective

observations and a limited grasp of

information flows within and around them

this is where paler comes in paler

empowers companies to develop digital

twins comprehensive digital replicas of

their operations this integration

unleashes the power of AI and blockchain

within Enterprises technologies that

operate entirely in the digital realm

this sets the stage in a radical shift

in business operations as follows one

with digital twins organizations

transform into Data generating entities

every action produces additional data

two this data is analyzed by AI models

extracting valuable insights for faster

and lower cost oper operations as

compared to the traditional human

capabilities three this commoditized

predictions enabling companies to

simulate first and act afterwards as

opposed to the traditional approach of

acting first and then analyzing results

which is where most of the costs

actually come from in a company for as

AI models grow more precise much of the

operational complexity can in turn and

this will happen in the future this is

currently underappreciated by the market

too be managed by smart contract so

blockchain trusted to execute as

programed five this will drastically cut

costs relative to revenue across num

numerous Industries Envision a company

that essentially becomes more

intelligent with every operation

liberating humans from mundane

repetitive tasks and if you look at

palen's customers closely you will see

that essentially this is already

happening they are cutting Opex as a

percentage of Revenue rather quickly and

so thanks to Pan's technology this

vision is no longer science fiction this

Evolution basically leads to a new typ

new type of organization one that excels

at uncovering insights and is far more

efficient at generating wealth palena

drives this transformation through a

continually evolving software suite

positioning it to deliver and capture

significant value as Industries adapt to

this model pentry is positioned to

optimize the operational expenditures of

an an increasing number of companies

worldwide and as a result in my view

palent will become an indispensable

asset akin to technology sorry akin to

electricity today in turn and this is

very important palent is rapidly

productizing its offerings making it

easier for customers to integrate them

this is ultimately increasing palen's

contribution margin which is actually

the key driver of palen's improved

financials at present as as evidenced by

the rising cash from operation levels

for example as Palante continues to get

better at productizing its offerings

it's going to tend towards an inflection

point in which it has a sufficient

number of customers per vertical and

Industry to start selling tailored

computes at a marginal cost this has the

potential to redefine how computation is

sold in the marketplace putting palente

here at the top of the distribution

funnel in the cloud industry as you can

see in the graph below this is likely to

Kickstart a flywheel by which it gets

increasingly harder for competitors to

imitate pante here giving way for the

company to emerge as a Computing Titan

AK to Microsoft Apple and other

Computing G of our time okay and last

but not least because I've made quite a

bit of money with this investment and I

believe I'm going to make much much more

Spotify Spotify today is like Amazon in

2001 a misunderstood Goodwill

compounding machine with the potential

to solve problems for creators and fans

just as Amazon has done in the past few

decades for consumers merchants and

developers as you can see in the graph

below ma monthly active users continue

to grow at a break neck pace and by the

way that is the graph on the left that

you can see on the screen now both

Amazon and Spotify SP ify share two

fundamental principles that aied their

success one cultivating consumer loyalty

Spotify has consistently earned the

trust of its users by providing

exceptional value for money mirroring

Amazon's approach to Consumer

satisfaction both Amazon and Spotify

share two fundamental principles that

have fued their success and that I

believe are going to take Spotify a very

very long way from here one cultivating

consumer loyalty Spotify has

consistently earned the trust of its

users by providing exceptional value for

money nring Amazon's approach to

customer satisfaction two embracing

Relentless Innovation Spotify is Contin

constantly expanding and experimenting

with new audio vertical such as podcasts

audio books and education echoing

Amazon's diversification Beyond books

qualifies dominance of the podcasting

Market outpacing even Tech Titans like

apple and Amazon is a testament to its

ability to identify and capitalize on

emerging opportunities this showcases

spotify's prowess in recognizing and

capitalizing on new avenues for growth

further bolstering its execution

capabilities similar to Amazon in its

formative years Spotify is disrupting

traditional Industries spotify's ad

inventory is thriving du due to the lack

of Gatekeepers in the new audio vertical

while Spotify is well positioned to

connect creators and consumers

efficiently opening up new revenue

streams despite competing with apple and

Amazon Spotify Reigns Supreme in the

audio space boosting over 615 million

monthly active users this highlights

Spotify is unwavering BR focus on audio

which is unparalleled in the industry in

the years to come spotify's financials

are pois for transformation as it

expands into new audio vertical and

margins improve because remember labels

keep 75% of the money that Spotify makes

in the audio verticals but the new

verticals which Spotify excels at

executing in do not have these very

unfavorable unit economics so basically

as these verticals get bigger and the

network continues to grow I believe that

the transformation that we're going to

see in the income statement is going to

absolutely shock the market also with

its Relentless pursuit of optimization

and iteration I believe that Spotify

could even establish a quotequote AWS

equivalent in the audio realm while this

Vision may not materialize the potential

upside is large and my investment is

already up 3x so I believe that the

chance of this turning into a 20 30X

investment is very very high however the

thesis is already materializing with

spotify's margins and free cash flow

levels arching up in the past few

quarters as you can see in the gr below

I believe that this trend will continue

to accelerate in the coming quarters

with the stock market likely

reevaluating its assessment of Spotify

stock as you can see here on the screen

this increased cash flow production is a

result of the total gross margin taking

up with premium gross grow margin is

going up and the ad supported gross

margin ticking up too and you can see

how the cumulative free cash flow

production since 2016 has been has

actually started to grow exponentially

and they believe we're going to see this

start to grow really really fast all

right so that's it for today I hope that

you enjoyed this review of my portfolio

this is the first video of many that I'm

going to do talking about my picks and

explaining to you guys how I think about

investing beyond the individual

investment ideas I hope that you really

enjoyed it and if I can please ask you

one favor if you enjoyed this video

please share this with one friend that

you think may enjoy this too these deep

Dives are for free and so the only way

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you very much and until next time