Poker Math You NEED to Know
Summary
TLDRThis video script offers essential poker math strategies for success in the game. It emphasizes the importance of understanding pot-sized raises, pot odds, and balanced betting ranges, especially on the river. The script clarifies misconceptions about poker math, such as the frequency of rare hands and the significance of pot odds in decision-making. It also discusses required bluff success frequency and minimum defense frequency, providing examples and calculations to illustrate these concepts, ultimately aiming to strengthen viewers' fundamental poker skills.
Takeaways
- 📚 Poker math is crucial for strategy, despite what many players believe about its irrelevance.
- 💡 Focus on learning and mastering the math that impacts your overall poker strategy, not on rare and irrelevant outcomes.
- 🚀 Start with pot-sized raises before the flop as a good initial bet to balance risk and reward.
- 🔢 Understand pot odds to determine whether to call or fold when facing a bet; it's about the ratio of the amount you can win to the amount you risk.
- 🧐 Convert pot odds to percentages to better grasp the frequency at which you need to win to break even.
- 🃏 Maintain a balanced range when playing the river, with a mix of value bets and bluffs that match the odds your opponent is facing.
- 🤔 Consider stack depth when deciding bet size; deeper stacks may allow for larger raises, while shallower stacks require more conservative bets.
- 🏆 Be aware of required bluff success frequency and minimum defense frequency to know when to bet and when to call against a bet.
- 🛑 If a raise would commit more than 30% of your stack, it's usually better to go all in, especially in tournaments or high-pressure situations.
- 📉 In small ball cash games, avoid making large raises with weak hands as it leads to poor pot odds.
- 📈 In tournaments, large bet sizes on the flop can lead to opponents folding too often, which can be a strategic mistake if overused.
Q & A
What is the main focus of the video?
-The main focus of the video is discussing essential poker math concepts that are crucial for succeeding at poker.
Why is math important in poker?
-Math is important in poker because it impacts your strategy, helping you make informed decisions that can improve your chances of winning.
What common misconceptions about poker math does the video address?
-The video addresses misconceptions such as the frequency of rare hands like four of a kind losing to a straight flush or the likelihood of getting pocket aces twice in a row, which are deemed irrelevant.
What is the first concept discussed in the video?
-The first concept discussed is how to make a pot-sized raise before the flop.
Why is making a pot-sized raise before the flop recommended?
-A pot-sized raise before the flop is recommended because it doesn't give your opponent amazing odds to call while not risking too much money to win a little.
How is a pot-sized raise calculated?
-A pot-sized raise is calculated as three times the last bet plus any additional money in the pot.
What are pot odds, and why are they important?
-Pot odds help you determine if you should continue in a hand when facing a bet by comparing the amount you need to risk to the total pot. They are important for making profitable decisions.
How can you convert pot odds to a percentage?
-To convert pot odds to a percentage, divide the second number by the sum of the first and second numbers.
What is the required bluff success frequency?
-The required bluff success frequency is the percentage of times your bluff needs to succeed to be immediately profitable, calculated by dividing your bet by the sum of your bet and the pot.
What is the minimum defense frequency?
-The minimum defense frequency is the percentage of times you need to defend against a bet to prevent your opponent from exploiting you by betting too often.
Outlines
🎯 Importance of Poker Math in Strategy
The video emphasizes the significance of poker math for strategic play, addressing common misconceptions that players have about the relevance of certain mathematical probabilities in poker. It clarifies that while some probabilities are often overemphasized, understanding core mathematical concepts that influence strategy is crucial. The speaker introduces five key concepts that will be discussed in the video, including making pot-sized raises before the flop, understanding pot odds, playing a balanced range on the river, calculating required bluff success frequency, and minimum defense frequency. These concepts are foundational for developing a strong poker strategy.
📊 Understanding Pot Odds and Their Impact on Decision Making
This section delves into the concept of pot odds, explaining how they guide a player's decision to call or fold when facing a bet. The explanation includes converting pot odds into percentages to determine the frequency at which a player needs to win to be profitable. The video uses examples to illustrate how pot odds affect play at different stages, highlighting the importance of bet sizing and how it influences the frequency of continuation. It also points out common mistakes players make with pot odds, such as calling with a wide range against small bets or folding too much against large bets.
🃏 Balancing Value Bets and Bluffs on the River
The paragraph discusses the importance of balancing value bets with bluffs when playing the river, especially when a player's range should be polarized. It explains that a balanced range should contain a proportion of bluffs equal to the odds that the opponent is getting, ensuring that the opponent is indifferent to calling. The video provides examples of different bet sizes and the corresponding percentage of bluffs needed in the range to maintain balance. It also warns against the common mistake of bluffing too often, especially when many draws miss, which can lead to significant losses.
🚀 Calculating Bluff Success Frequency and Minimum Defense Frequency
This section explains the required bluff success frequency, which is the minimum percentage of times a bluff must succeed to be profitable. It contrasts this with the minimum defense frequency, which is the percentage of times a player must call to avoid losing equity. The video clarifies the difference between these two concepts, which are often confused, and provides formulas for calculating them. It also discusses how these frequencies should influence betting strategies and how understanding them can lead to more profitable play, especially against opponents who do not defend their ranges adequately.
📚 Conclusion and Additional Resources for Poker Math
The final paragraph wraps up the video by summarizing the importance of the five concepts discussed and their necessity for success in poker. It encourages viewers to apply these mathematical concepts to refine their game and offers a free fundamentals course for those new to poker. The speaker also invites viewers to share the video with friends who may benefit from understanding poker math and invites feedback on other math-related topics they might want to learn about in future videos.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Poker Math
💡Pot Sized Bets
💡Pot Odds
💡Balanced Range
💡Value Bets to Bluffs Ratio
💡Bluff Success Frequency
💡Minimum Defense Frequency
💡Equity Realization
💡Stack Depth
💡Position
💡All-In
Highlights
Poker math is essential for a successful strategy, despite common misconceptions about its complexity.
Focus should be on relevant math that impacts strategy rather than rare or irrelevant outcomes.
The first concept discussed is making pot-sized raises before the flop as a strategic starting point.
Pot odds are crucial for deciding whether to stay in a hand or fold when facing a bet.
A balanced range on the river is vital for effective betting, mixing value bets with bluffs proportionately.
Understanding the odds that your opponent is getting is key to making balanced range decisions.
The required bluff success frequency and minimum defense frequency are critical for profitable betting.
A pot-sized bet or raise is a good starting point, calculated as three times the last bet plus additional pot money.
Adjustments to pot-sized raises are necessary based on stack depth and position relative to the opponent.
All-in moves are recommended when a raise would put in more than 30% of your stack.
Common raise sizes are detailed for different stack depths and situations, such as limping and facing three-bets.
Pot odds are traditionally expressed as the amount you can win to the amount you risk, and are crucial for decision-making.
Converting pot odds to percentages is a common practice, with specific calculations provided for clarity.
Bet size significantly impacts pot odds, with smaller bets requiring more frequent continuation and larger bets less so.
Balanced River value to bluff proportions are essential for maintaining a strong poker strategy, especially against good players.
The importance of not bluffing too often, especially in certain bet size scenarios, is emphasized to avoid easy exploitation.
Acquired bluff success frequency and minimum defense frequency are detailed, showing the math behind profitable bluffing.
The video concludes with a call to action to learn and apply these concepts for fundamental poker success.
Transcripts
in this video we are going to be
discussing poker math that you need to
know to succeed at poker I know a lot of
people tell me that they are not good at
math or they don't want to consider
studying the math but math is important
at least the math that impacts your
strategy what a lot of people get bogged
down on is nonsense they want to know
how often four of a kind loses to a
straight flush or Royal Flush which does
not really matter they want to know how
often does pocket ases lose to the 94
off suit Four Hands in a row
does not matter you want to know how
often you get delt pocket aces twice in
a row does not matter all of these
things that people are concerned with
are
irrelevant like most things in life so
you want to make sure that you focus on
and get very good at the things that
actually do impact your overall poker
strategy so in this video we're going to
be discussing five Concepts the first is
how to make a pot sized Rays before the
flop because that is very often going to
be a good starting point for how much
you should be raising initially we're
also going to be discussing pot ODS
which help you know if you should stick
around in a hand or not when you're
facing a bet we're also going to be
discussing how to play a balanced range
on the river when you are betting so
that you make your opponent in different
to calling which will allow you to win
the pot on average you'll do that by
making a range have a proportion of
value bets to Bluffs equal to the odds
that your opponent is getting we'll
discuss that I realize it's a little bit
difficult but it is important we'll be
discussing the required Bluff success
frequency when you are making a bet as
well as the minimum defense frequency
how often you need to stick around when
you are facing a bet so your opponent
cannot just blindly run you over with
aggression so five topics here it's
going to be a long video but these are
five things that you really do need to
know if you want to succeed at poker so
let's first discuss a pot siiz bet or a
pot siiz raise you're going to find that
a pot sized bet or raise is a good
starting point before the flop because
it doesn't give your opponent amazing a
to s around while still not forcing you
to risk so much money to win so little
which is what a lot of people do when
they raise the seven big blindes before
the Flop so what is a pot siiz raise a
pot siiz raise is three times the last
bet plus any additional money that is in
the pot so we have three examples here
let's say someone makes it three big
blinds before the Flop well you take
three times the last bet which is three
big blinds plus the big blind plus the
small blind which equals 10.5 big blinds
so if you're playing a one two No Limit
game and your opponent makes it $6
you're going to make it $21 over their
raise if you decided you wanted to R
raise if there's an anti- in play you'd
want to make it a little bit
bigger what about versus a two big blind
raise and a six big blind three betat
well now you have 6 * 3 which is 18 plus
the two big blind Rays plus the one big
blind big blind and the half a big blind
small blind now we have a 21.5 big blind
R raise what about against a two big
blind raise a six big blind three bet 15
big blind for bets well 15 * 3 is 45 + 6
is 51 plus 3.5 which is 54.5 big blinds
total it's a big r ra but that is what
you want to be doing a lot of the time
now this is a pot size raise but in
general you're going to want to raise
even a little bit larger as Stacks get
very deep and alternatively Stacks get
shallower you're going to want to raise
a little bit less than a pop siiz raise
because you don't need to necessarily
raise a lot before the Flop to make the
pot humongous by the river if you're
playing shallow because you just don't
have that much money to put in by the
river
anyway also you're going to find that
you want to raise a little bit bigger
when you are out of position against the
player you're most likely to be against
and you're going to want to raise a
little bit smaller when you likely to be
in position against the player you're
likely to be playing against also if a
raise would put in more than 30% of your
stack you should usually go all in
instead this will become very important
in tournaments when you're starting to
get somewhat shallow stack or if you're
putting in like a five bet pre- flop in
a cash game you usually just want to be
all in in those spots so here we have a
chart listing common Rays sizes and Ray
sizes we have stack depth over here if
you're listening to this on a podcast
check out the YouTube channel this very
important youtube.com/ pooker coaching
so let's say we do have 60 to 125 big
blinds or perhaps even a little bit
deeper when they fold to you and you
want a raise you should make it about
2.75 big blinds which is a little bit
less than a pot siiz raise when someone
limps you're going to want to make it
about 4.5 big blinds which is a pot siiz
raise when someone raises in front of
you you're going want to make it about
three times their bet or their raise
amount when you are in position which is
a little bit less than a po- siiz raise
and four times the amount when you are
out of position when you're in the small
blind or the big blind and that's a
little bit more than a pot siiz raise
you see all these Concepts we were
discussing earlier just a second ago are
coming into effect here when you are
facing a three bet so say you raise and
someone re raises you and it's back to
you if you're in position you're going
to want to make it about 2.75 times the
three bet amount and from out of
position about 3.25 times the three bet
amount these are common spots come up
all the time and once you know how much
to make it in these scen scenarios
that's one less thing you have to think
about and ideally these five things that
we're going to be discussing today the
poker math you need to know if you can
get all of these down to where you just
know what to do you can focus on well
actually playing good strong
fundamentally sound poker there's one
less thing you have to be concerned with
let's discuss pot odds when you are
facing a bet you have to risk some
amount to win some other amount you have
to risk the amount that the bet is to
win the bet plus the pot plus you also
get back your bet that you would have
called when you do happen to win and if
you will win more than the pot ODS
dictate you need to win then you should
continue and if you will win less often
than the pod pod Hots dictate you should
continue then you should fold this is a
bit an overs simplification I realize
Equity realization is a thing but this
is definitely what you want to be
thinking about when you are learning
about pot ODS
now at least as far as I can tell most
people do not think in terms of odds
they think in terms of percentages I
know I literally never think in terms of
odds pot odds are traditionally
expressed as the amount you can
win to the amount you risk so for
example say your opponent bets 100 into
100 pots okay you have to call 100 to
win 200 right you have to put in the 100
that you're putting in to win the pot
plus their bet to 200 this would give
you two two one odds that's how you
would say this this is actually 200 to
100 you Lop off both the hundreds here
to simplify it it gives you two to one
odds but how often do you need to win if
you're getting two to one odds a lot of
people think it's 50% but that is
horribly incorrect to convert odds to
percentage you need to divide the second
number by the first number plus the
second number so let's do that second
number divided by second number plus the
first number second number here is 100
or one 100 divided by 100 + 200 equal
1/3 which is 33% so when you are facing
a pot siiz bet you need to win 33% of
the time which makes sense you're
putting in literally one3 of the whole
pot right you're putting in one3 of the
whole pot you need to get back third of
the whole pot in order to break even if
you'll get back less than that it's not
good for you if you'll get back more
than that it's really good for you let's
go through an example or two let's say
your opponent bets 100 into a 400 pot
this gives you four to one odds let's
convert that into a percentage well we
have the second
number divided by the second number plus
the first number so 100 / 100 + 400
equal 20% if we're going to realize more
than 20% equity in this scenario we
should be sticking around let's do
another one let's say the opponent bets
1,500 into the 8,000 pot well now it's,
1500 to win 9500 which is 9500 to 1500
you can simplify this by dividing n
9,500 by 1,500 which is 6.3 to1 you
wanted to simplify it but that is again,
1500 id, 1500 plus 9500 which equals
13.6% if you realize more than 13.6%
Equity you got to be sticking around
worth noting bet Size Matters a lot when
you are considering pot ODS as you face
smaller bet sizes you should be
continuing far more often and as you're
facing large bet sizes you should be
considering far less often this is
actually the opposite of what a lot of
people do if you consider small Sak cash
games so many people make it eight big
blinds before the Flop and then you'll
see six people call them but that's a
horrible mistake because you're risking
a lot to win almost nothing you're
getting bad pot odds in tournaments
you'll see people making 20% pot bets on
the Flop and their opponents fold out
half of their range or more it's a
disaster you can't be doing that and
well it's because people don't fully
understand how pot odds work and how
that should heavily impact your
strategy here's some common pot odds we
have when you are getting four to one
you need to realize at least 20% Equity
when you're getting 3 to one you realize
25% when you're getting 2 to one which
is when your opponent makes a pot siiz
Bed
you need to realize 33% Equity when
you're getting 1.5 to1 you need to
realize 40% Equity if you're getting 1
to one which doesn't really happen all
that often but sometimes it does you
need to realize 50%
Equity all right now let's discuss
balanced
River value to Bluff proportions this is
a bit of a interesting topic that
definitely does matter and I think a lot
of people don't really consider when it
comes to thinking about a good strong
balanced poker strategy if you you bet
the river with a perfectly polarized
range meaning you either are betting
with a really good hand that basically
always wins or a bluff that basically
always loses when your opponent calls
your opponent will be indifferent with
all of their Bluff catchers meaning
their hand doesn't really matter because
they lose to all of your value hands and
they beat all of your Bluffs and very
often if you bet the Flop and the turn
and the river most players will be in
that scenario where they have a bluff
catcher and your range should be very
polarized
so in this spot to have a balanced range
you want to have a number of
combinations in your range that are
bluffs equal to how often your opponent
needs to win based on the pot
odds okay this concept is super
important when you do take a line where
you should be very polarized just be
sure that all of your value bets
actually win when you do get called what
a lot of people do wrong here is they
have thin value bets in their big
betting range on the river that results
in them value betting too thinly and
then you need to have fewer Bluffs in
your range to account for that so let's
consider various bet sizes let's say on
the river you bet 50% pot let's just
presume we're all in for this video
let's say you're all in for 50% pot in
this scenario your opponent needs to win
let's figure out their pot odds right
like we just discussed they have to put
in 0. five to
win your 0.5 bet their five call and the
one big BL the the one full pot so this
is .5 divid 2 which is 25% your opponent
needs to win 25% of the time in this
scenario so if your opponent needs to
win 25% of the time that means that you
want to structure your River 50% pot
Allin range such that it contains 25%
Bluffs very important topic a lot of
people in this scenario Bluff far too
often it's easy to Bluff more than 25%
of the time especially when a bunch of
draws Miss and well all your opponent
has to do if you're bluffing more than
25% of the time is call with all their
Bluff catchers and they are going to
absolutely Crush you let's say you can
bet 100% pot you're all in for a pot
siiz bets in this scenario your opponent
needs to win one divided by the pot plus
your pot siiz bet plus their pot siiz
call right one divided by three is 33%
so you need to have 33% Bluffs in your
range in the scenario to make your
opponent indifferent between calling or
folding if you bet two times the
pot now your opponent needs to win two
divided by 2 plus 2 plus 1 which is 40%
of the time which means you need to have
40% Bluffs in your range a lot of people
when they 2x pot the river have far too
few Bluffs in their range you're going
to find that most people in most games
when they over pot the river two times
pot have almost no Bluffs in their range
and this results in them being horribly
unbalanced because then all your
opponent has to do is just fold
everything life's easy if all you have
to do is fold everything because your
opponent doesn't Bluff enough if you
make a three times pot bet all end on
the river your opponent now needs to win
four 43% of the time based on the pot
odds and well you get to have 43% Bluffs
which like I said a lot of people do not
do this is however what you see a lot of
the best players in the world do when
they make these large over bets on the
river especially with a good blocker to
the best possible hand available like
say there's three spades on the board
and you have the Ace of Spades in your
hand that's a great spot to Bluff and
you can Bluff for a huge amount because
first you know your opponent doesn't
have the ASI flush and you know you get
to Bluff a lot when you're making these
big all-in bet sizes
let's discuss about your acquired Bluff
success frequency a lot of people kind
of get this confused with pot odds but
it is not the same thing when you are
bluffing if your bluff wins more than
your bet divided by your bet plus the
pot you profit immediately this presumes
your bluff has 0% Equity by the way very
often when you are bluffing you're going
to win sometimes right like say you bet
the Flop with one overcard right if
sometimes that one overcard makes top
pair and it wins so let's say you bet
25% pot let's say you bet 25% pot on the
Flop remember how I discuss a second ago
a lot of the best players raise pre-
flop and then bet tiny on the Flop and
their opponent folds too often well here
you profit if your opponent folds more
than 025 divided by 0.25 plus 1 so the
25% pot bet plus the pot equals 20% in
this scenario if your opponent will fold
more than 20% of the time you
immediately profit assuming your hand
literally never ever wins which it will
sometimes so your opponent needs to
defend
actually much more than this right I
mean they so here if they fold more than
20% they're going to get crushed but
they have to stick around wider to
account for the fact that you know
sometimes you're going to end up winning
with whatever nonsense you have so this
is a spot where making this small bet is
going to be incredibly profitable for
you if your opponents are going to fold
out stuff like gutshot straight draws
and back door FL stws with an overcard
and stuff like that which a lot of
people will if you bet 50% pot you
profit if your opponent folds more than
0.5 divid by .5 plus 1 which is
33% a lot of people don't even stick
around 67% of the time it's hard to do
if you bet pot you profit if your
opponent folds more than half of the
time against the pot size bet on the
Flop you're going to find that most
people fold out way more than half the
time they fold out like 70% of the time
making again that immediately profitable
and if you 2x pot it profit if your
opponent folds more than 67% of the time
now once you start 2x potting it your
opponent really doesn't have to stick
around all that often at all so you have
to be a little bit careful going for
very very big bet sizes you're going to
find an incredibly profitable strategy
in most games against most players is to
just continuation bet frequently and
Tiny because most people do not defend
with 80% of their range which is you
know to some extent required in these
scenarios now the opposite of the
required Bluff success frequency is the
minimum defense frequency which which is
1 minus the BET divided by the BET plus
the pot so if your opponent bets 25% pot
minimum defense frequency is 1 minus
0.25 divid 025 + 1 which is
80% right it's the opposite it's it's
one minus this number we just did here
so you can go down the list to see all
of this and I think what ends up
happening in this scenario is a lot of
people do study minimum defense
frequency and they think that in all
scenarios they do need to defend with
let's say you know 80% of their range
against a small bet but that's actually
not true true because sometimes you're
going to do what is called or do what is
referred to as under realizing your
equity for example say someone raises
and you call in the big blind with 95
suited and the Flop comes Ace King five
right in the spot if you check in your
opponent bets it's already pretty rough
maybe you stick around maybe you don't
but on the turn say the turns a 10 you
check in your opponent bets you should
probably fold your bottom pair right but
your bottom pair is going to win some
portion of the time that you do not get
to realize so so you're going to end up
under realizing your equity in these
scenarios so when there are additional
betting rounds you don't actually have
to defend as often as the men defense
frequency dictates because you're going
to drastically under realize your equ do
with a lot of your medium strength hands
so definitely keep that in mind however
these numbers are especially relevant as
you get to the river
against good strong balanced players
because well you want to make sure
you're not drastically over folding if
all your opponent has to do to crush you
is simply bet
you're going to lose so you want to make
sure that you develop good strong
defense strategies so that you can
combat players who are good and
aggressive and once you learn to do this
and you learn to protect your ranges by
check calling with a lot of medium
strength hands you know you just don't
plan to fold it's going to make you way
more difficult to play against compared
to if you just always raise those hands
on the Flop or you always fold all of
your bluff catchers on the river when
your opponent does put you to the test
for a lot of
chips so I realize there's a decent
amount of math in this video this these
are are five things you definitely do
need to know to succeed at poker I have
a fundamentals course that if you are
kind of new to Poker and a lot of this
is a little bit rough to you you're a
little bit new to you uh that will be
very beneficial for you to check out you
can get it completely for free at
pokercoaching.com
fundamentals so make sure you check it
out good luck in your games have fun
thank you for being here if you have a
friend who doesn't understand pot odds
or minimum defense frequency or anything
like that send them this video that'll
go a long way to helping them out
there's any other math that you think
that people need to know or you maybe
want to see a video on write in the
comment section down below I'll be sure
to read it also when you're down there
click the like button click the
Subscribe button I'll talk to you next
time bye-bye
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