I Was Worried about Climate Change. Now I worry about Climate Scientists.

Summary

In this video, the speaker discusses climate sensitivity and its critical role in understanding climate change. They highlight concerns about higher climate sensitivity values reported by recent models, which some climate scientists have dismissed. The speaker argues that this issue is underreported and crucial for government plans to combat climate change. They draw parallels to past scientific biases and emphasize the importance of accurate climate predictions. The video also promotes Planet Wild, an environmental initiative focused on restoring ecosystems, and encourages viewers to support their efforts.

Takeaways

• 🌡️ The 'climate sensitivity' is a critical model parameter that indicates how much the global average temperature will change in response to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide.
• 🔍 The speaker is concerned that the climate sensitivity might be higher than the range suggested by the IPCC, which could have significant implications for climate change mitigation plans.
• 🗣️ There has been a debate among climate scientists about the reliability of models that predict a higher climate sensitivity, with some arguing these 'hot models' should be given less weight in IPCC assessments.
• 🏛️ The speaker argues that the issue of potentially higher climate sensitivity has been underreported and is important for government planning to reach net-zero emissions.
• 🤔 Two common reactions from climate scientists are dismissed: one that climate sensitivity is irrelevant to the need to stop global warming, and another that variability in climate sensitivity predictions is normal.
• 🔎 The speaker criticizes the dismissal of high climate sensitivity models, likening it to a pattern in physics where new, unexpected measurements are initially rejected due to confirmation bias.
• 🧐 The comparison made by some scientists between different climate sensitivity values and the number of riflemen in a firing squad is criticized for being misleading and downplaying the importance of the rate of climate change.
• 🔬 The speaker highlights the importance of not underestimating uncertainties in scientific measurements and the need for scientific communities to be vigilant against confirmation bias.
• 🌳 The speaker introduces Planet Wild, an organization focused on restoring ecosystems and financed by community contributions, as an example of practical and realistic environmental action.
• 📹 Planet Wild is praised for its transparency, providing video reports of its missions to supporters, which is seen as a sign of respect and accountability.
• 💰 The speaker offers an incentive for viewers to join Planet Wild, covering the first month's membership for the first 200 people who sign up using a provided code.

Q & A

What is 'climate sensitivity' as discussed in the video?

Climate sensitivity refers to a model parameter that indicates how much the global average temperature would change in response to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. It's a key factor in determining the rate at which climate change may worsen.

Why is 'equilibrium climate sensitivity' significant in climate science?

Equilibrium climate sensitivity is significant because it helps predict the long-term changes in global temperature due to increased carbon dioxide levels. It's crucial for understanding the pace of climate change and for formulating effective mitigation strategies.

What is the 'hot models' problem mentioned in the script?

The 'hot models' problem refers to a situation where some of the world's best climate models began to produce a much higher climate sensitivity than the average of previous models. This has led to debates among climate scientists about the reliability of these models and their inclusion in IPCC assessments.

What are the two main reactions from climate scientists regarding the underreporting of the 'hot models' issue?

The first reaction is that the climate sensitivity is a distraction and that we need to address global warming regardless of its exact value. The second reaction is that there are many papers published annually with varying climate sensitivities, suggesting that one should not focus on individual studies.

Why does the speaker argue against the idea that climate sensitivity is just a distraction?

The speaker argues that climate sensitivity is crucial for government plans to reach net zero emissions. If the climate sensitivity is underestimated, current plans may be inadequate, which could lead to more severe climate change impacts.

What is the issue with the comparison made by Zeke Hausfather and Andrew Dessler in their blog post?

The issue with the comparison is that it equates climate sensitivity with the size of the problem rather than the rate at which it worsens. The speaker argues that the rate of climate change is more critical for planning and mitigation efforts.

What is the concern raised about the reliability of climate models?

The concern is that climate scientists may have changed their interpretation methods after some models produced results that didn't fit their previous narratives. This could introduce bias and affect the accuracy of climate projections.

What is the example of the neutron's lifetime used to illustrate in the script?

The example of the neutron's lifetime is used to illustrate how scientific measurements can suddenly change, indicating that previous uncertainties may have been underestimated. This has implications for how climate scientists should handle new data that doesn't fit with older models.

What is confirmation bias and how does it relate to the handling of scientific data?

Confirmation bias is the tendency to favor information that confirms one's preexisting beliefs and to dismiss or scrutinize more closely information that contradicts them. In science, this can lead to a bias towards confirming previous findings, which may affect the objectivity of data analysis.

What is the speaker's stance on the current IPCC projections regarding climate sensitivity?

The speaker believes that the uncertainty on climate sensitivity is much larger than what the current IPCC projections suggest, indicating a potential underestimation of the risks associated with climate change.

What is Planet Wild and how does it relate to the speaker's environmental concerns?

Planet Wild is an environmental organization that focuses on restoring ecosystems and biodiversity through community-supported missions. The speaker supports their practical and realistic approach to environmental conservation and encourages others to join the community.