DONT TRADE FADE (EP 5): Barron's Takes the Lead

Summary

In this video, Jason Shapiro from Crowded Market Report revisits the 'Don't Trade Fade Series', examining various stock portfolios against the S&P 500. He notes that Dan Nathan's current trades are underperforming, with stocks like Nike and Walmart not working in his favor. The Baron's Round Table portfolio, comprised of top stock picks, has significantly underperformed the S&P 500, which is up nearly 12%. Other portfolios, including a random selection and one chosen by an AI (Chat GPT), also lag behind the S&P 500. Shapiro concludes that going against the consensus of these experts can be profitable, as evidenced by the long-short hedge fund Equity index outperforming by 10%. He encourages viewers to subscribe for more insights.

Takeaways

• 📈 The video discusses a series called 'Don't Trade Fade', which tracks the performance of various portfolios against the S&P 500.
• 👤 Jason Shapiro mentions Dan Nathan as a prominent trader known for his 'fade' strategies, but notes difficulties in tracking his trades due to lack of price details and delayed disclosures.
• 📉 Dan Nathan's current disclosed trades are mostly underperforming, with positions in Nike, XLE, XLK, USO, Tesla, and Walmart all showing losses over the last month.
• 🎯 The 'Baron's Round Table' portfolio, consisting of picks by top stock market experts, has underperformed the S&P 500, being up only 1.67% versus the S&P's nearly 12%.
• 🤔 The 'Consensus Spade' portfolio, derived from CNBC's end-of-year picks, has slightly outperformed the Baron's portfolio but still underperformed the S&P 500, returning 6%.
• 🔤 An alphabetically selected portfolio of the first 24 S&P 500 stocks has outperformed the expert picks but still underperformed the S&P 500, returning 2.79%.
• 🤖 The 'chat GDP chat GPT' portfolio, which randomly picked 24 stocks from the S&P 500, has performed better than the expert picks but still underperformed the S&P 500.
• 🚀 Nvidia was highlighted as a stock picked by chat GPT, which has done well, but even this best-performing portfolio did not outperform the S&P 500.
• 📊 The video concludes that going against the consensus of expert traders, or 'trading fade', has proven to be profitable, as demonstrated by the outperformance of the S&P 500 over the expert-selected portfolios.
• 📝 The speaker encourages viewers to check out 'crowdedmarketreport.com', sign up for their free Substack newsletter, and like the video if they found it enjoyable.

Q & A

What is the main theme of the video by Jason Shapiro?

The main theme of the video is the 'Don't Trade Fade Series' where Jason Shapiro reviews the performance of various stock portfolios relative to the S&P 500.

Who is Dan Nathan and what is his role in the video?

Dan Nathan is mentioned as one of the biggest Fades in the stock market, and Jason Shapiro discusses his trades and their current performance.

How has Nike performed in the last month according to Dan Nathan's disclosure?

According to Dan Nathan's disclosure, Nike has gone down by 2.5% in the last month.

What is the performance of the 'Baron's Round Table' portfolio compared to the S&P 500?

The 'Baron's Round Table' portfolio is up by 1.67% while the S&P 500 is up almost 12%, indicating that the portfolio has underperformed.

What is the 'Consensus Spade' and how has it performed?

The 'Consensus Spade' is a portfolio created from CNBC's end of year picks. It has performed slightly better than the 'Baron's Round Table', being up by 6% compared to the S&P 500's 12%.

How did the random portfolio of the first 24 stocks from the S&P 500 perform?

The random portfolio of the first 24 stocks from the S&P 500, taken alphabetically, has performed better than the expert picks but still underperformed the S&P 500, being up by 2.79%.

What is the performance of the 'Chat GPT' portfolio?

The 'Chat GPT' portfolio, which selected 24 stocks from the S&P 500, has done quite well but still underperformed the S&P 500 by a small margin.

Why did Jason Shapiro choose Nvidia as an example from the 'Chat GPT' portfolio?

Nvidia was chosen as an example because it was one of the stocks picked by 'Chat GPT', and it demonstrates that even the best portfolio in the comparison still underperformed the S&P 500.

What is the performance of Dan Nathan's trades mentioned in the video?

Dan Nathan's trades, as mentioned in the video, are all losing, with none of them working in his favor.

What is the final message or conclusion of the video?

The final message is that going opposite the consensus of these experts works, and it's a strategy that has been successful in various forms.