How will the security situation in Syria pan out? | DW News

Summary

The video discusses the aftermath of the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, focusing on the rise of the rebel group HTS (Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham). While HTS seeks to present itself as more moderate, distancing itself from its jihadist past, the international community remains cautious. The possibility of a democratic transition and a united Syria is uncertain, with issues around Kurdish autonomy and the involvement of regional powers like Turkey. Despite the challenges, there is cautious optimism regarding the future, as Syrians look to rebuild their country after over a decade of war.

Takeaways

• 😀 HTS, a jihadist group previously linked to Al-Qaeda, is now presenting itself as a more moderate force in Syria, distancing itself from its past and promising to respect minorities and facilitate elections.
• 😀 Following the fall of the Assad regime, many Syrians are hopeful, with some returning to the country after years of displacement due to the civil war.
• 😀 While HTS has promised to be more inclusive and moderate, there is skepticism about whether it can deliver on these promises, particularly in terms of allowing free elections and sharing power with other groups.
• 😀 International actors, including the European Union and the United Nations, are cautious about engaging with HTS, given its past as a terrorist organization and its role in Syria's ongoing conflict.
• 😀 The international community is concerned about the security and stability of Syria, with some fears of a resurgence of groups like ISIS in the power vacuum left by Assad's fall.
• 😀 There is a delicate balance in Syria, with Turkey playing a significant role due to its support for HTS and its complex relationship with Kurdish groups in the region.
• 😀 The situation in Syria remains fluid, with many factions vying for influence, and it’s uncertain whether HTS will emerge as the dominant power or whether a more pluralistic government will form.
• 😀 The fall of Assad is seen as a significant victory for the Syrian opposition, but questions remain about the long-term political future of the country, particularly in terms of governance and territorial integrity.
• 😀 The Syrian diaspora, especially in Lebanon and Turkey, has been affected by the war, with millions displaced and some now seeking to return home after years of exile.
• 😀 Experts warn that Syria’s future is uncertain, and while there are positive signs of stability, the risks of fragmentation and further chaos are still present, especially in regions with diverse ethnic and religious groups like the Kurds and Alawites.

Q & A

What are the key changes in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime?

After the fall of the Assad regime, Syria has seen a power vacuum with the rise of opposition groups, especially HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham). The situation remains uncertain, but there are signs of hope, as many Syrians are returning home. There are also talks about building a new future, though how the country will transition politically remains unclear.

Why is HTS's role in Syria's future controversial?

HTS is controversial due to its previous jihadist links and its designation as a terrorist organization by Western countries. While HTS has distanced itself from groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS, and has promised moderation, international actors remain cautious about engaging with it. The group's real intentions, particularly regarding governance and elections, are still being closely scrutinized.

What is HTS's approach to governance and elections in Syria?

HTS has promised to respect religious minorities, facilitate elections, and share power with other groups. However, the legitimacy of any elections in areas under HTS control remains in question, as the group’s track record in previous elections was criticized for being non-representative.

How has the international community reacted to the rise of HTS?

The international community remains divided. The European Union has made it clear that it will not engage with HTS or its leadership, while some countries are reconsidering their stance, given HTS’s shift toward a more moderate image. The UN has emphasized the need for accountability for crimes committed during the civil war.

What is the role of external powers like Turkey and Russia in Syria’s future?

Turkey has played a significant role in backing HTS and has concerns about Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria. Russia, once a strong ally of Assad, has seen its influence wane with the regime's fall. Both countries will likely remain involved in Syria’s political and security arrangements moving forward.

How does the Syrian situation compare to other conflict zones like Libya and Afghanistan?

There are concerns that Syria could fragment and fall into chaos like Libya or Afghanistan. However, experts emphasize that the cohesion of the opposition forces and the desire of the Syrian people to shape their own future could prevent such a scenario, though the situation remains fragile.

What role do minority groups like the Kurds play in Syria’s future governance?

The Kurds are a significant faction in northeastern Syria, and their role in future governance is pivotal. While HTS may seek power-sharing, Turkey’s opposition to Kurdish autonomy complicates the situation. International actors like the US and Russia may play a role in negotiating the Kurds' position in a future Syrian government.

What is the likelihood of ISIS resurgence in Syria post-Assad?

The threat of an ISIS resurgence is a concern, but both HTS and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are working together to combat ISIS in the region. The international coalition has also been actively targeting ISIS cells, which reduces the likelihood of a major comeback.

What challenges does the new Syrian government face in stabilizing the country?

The new Syrian government faces multiple challenges including reconstruction, ensuring security, rebuilding the economy, and integrating displaced people. The presence of multiple factions with varying ideologies, as well as ongoing regional tensions, adds complexity to these tasks.

Will Syria eventually hold free and fair elections after the fall of Assad?

While the Syrian people may eventually have a chance to participate in elections, this process will take time. Constitutional reforms, the establishment of an interim government, and the creation of democratic institutions are required before free and fair elections can be held. The timeline for this remains uncertain.