Tahun Terakhir Jokowi, Ekonomi RI Terancam "Krisis" Daya Beli

Summary

As President Joko Widodo’s tenure nears its end, Indonesia faces growing economic inequality, marked by a shrinking middle class and persistent poverty. Key indicators such as weak manufacturing activity and five consecutive months of deflation signal declining purchasing power, while the rupiah’s stability is largely due to external factors. Despite a 5% growth rate, job creation has failed to meet expectations, and the wealth gap has widened drastically. With concerns mounting over Indonesia’s economic future, the incoming government is urged to prioritize job creation, poverty reduction, and addressing the widening inequality to safeguard long-term prosperity.

Takeaways

• 😀 Economic inequality in Indonesia is worsening, with the wealth of the top 50 wealthiest individuals equal to the combined wealth of 50 million Indonesians.
• 😀 Indonesia's manufacturing sector is in contraction, as reflected by the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) remaining below 50 for three consecutive months.
• 😀 Deflation has been ongoing for five months, with a decrease in the prices of goods and services, signaling a decline in consumer demand.
• 😀 The government has failed to meet poverty reduction targets for 2024, with the poverty rate remaining at 9.03%, much higher than the intended 6-7%.
• 😀 The middle class in Indonesia has decreased significantly, with many falling into poverty instead of advancing to higher income levels.
• 😀 Unemployment has increased, with nearly 53,000 workers experiencing job loss between January and August 2024.
• 😀 The stability of the Rupiah is largely due to external factors, such as the weakening of the US dollar, not strong domestic economic conditions.
• 😀 The economy has been growing at a modest 5% annually under President Joko Widodo's leadership, despite various global challenges.
• 😀 Indonesia has experienced deflation for the first time since 1999, highlighting a unique economic anomaly that could lead to negative long-term effects.
• 😀 If urgent actions are not taken, Indonesia could continue facing economic difficulties, undermining its ability to meet the 2045 development goals.

Q & A

What is the current state of Indonesia's economy as described in the script?

Indonesia's economy is facing challenges, with growing inequality and weakening purchasing power. Key indicators such as the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) show a contraction in manufacturing, while inflation and deflation data point to a decrease in consumer spending.

What does the PMI figure for September 2024 indicate about Indonesia's manufacturing sector?

The PMI for September 2024 is 49.2, which is below the threshold of 50, indicating that Indonesia's manufacturing sector is in contraction. This marks three consecutive months of declining manufacturing activity, particularly in output and new orders.

What does the deflation in Indonesia signify about consumer behavior?

Deflation, which has lasted for five consecutive months, signals a decrease in demand for goods and services. Consumers are postponing purchases, hoping for further price drops, which can negatively affect business profits and economic growth.

How does the deflation trend in 2024 compare to previous years?

The deflation trend in 2024 is unusual, with five consecutive months of deflation, the longest since 1999. Historically, Indonesia has experienced inflation rather than prolonged deflation.

What economic indicator is used to assess the health of manufacturing, and what is its significance?

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is used to assess manufacturing health. A PMI below 50 indicates contraction, while above 50 signals expansion. Indonesia's PMI remains below 50, reflecting weak manufacturing activity.

What was the state of inflation in Indonesia for September 2024?

Indonesia's inflation rate for September 2024 was 1.84% year-on-year, but it experienced a deflation of 0.12% on a monthly basis. This led to five consecutive months of deflation.

How does the government's performance on poverty reduction compare to its targets?

The government has failed to meet its poverty reduction targets, with the poverty rate still at 9.03% as of March 2024. This failure is largely attributed to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

What is the state of Indonesia's middle class, and how has it changed in recent years?

Indonesia's middle class has shrunk significantly, with nearly 9.48 million people falling into poverty since 2019. In 2024, only 47.85 million people belong to the middle class, down from 53.33 million in 2019.

What does the script suggest about the role of external factors in Indonesia's economy?

The script suggests that the stability of the Indonesian rupiah is more influenced by external factors, such as the weakening of the US dollar, rather than improvements in the domestic economy.

What are the concerns regarding the economic inequality in Indonesia?

The script highlights increasing economic inequality, with the wealthiest 50 people in Indonesia possessing the same wealth as 50 million people. The growing gap between the rich and poor could exacerbate social and economic issues.