The Next Stock Market Crash (How To Profit)
Summary
TLDR该视频脚本由Graham主讲,讨论了未来可能发生的股市崩盘及其应对策略。Graham首先回顾了历史上的几次重大股市崩盘,包括1929年大萧条、1970年代的通货膨胀和2008年的金融危机等。他强调,尽管市场崩溃可能带来巨大损失,但历史上从未导致投资者一无所有。接着,他提出了应对未来市场波动的建议,包括保持3到6个月的紧急基金、投资多元化、持续投资、不恐慌性抛售,并保持稳定的收入。Graham认为,通过这些策略,投资者可以更好地准备应对未来的市场波动,即使在短期内市场下跌,长期来看仍有可能获得利润。
Takeaways
- 📉 市场波动是正常现象,历史上的股市崩溃虽然剧烈,但并非灾难性的永久损失。
- 📈 股市崩溃的频率和严重程度不一,从10%的小幅回调到40%以上的市场崩溃都有可能发生。
- 💡 投资者应该了解历史上的股市崩溃,以便更好地准备和应对可能的市场低迷。
- 🌐 当前市场估值接近历史高点,一些分析师预测未来可能出现显著回调。
- 🔄 多元化投资是减少风险和波动性的有效策略,建议跨多个行业和公司进行投资。
- 🛒 长期定投策略在历史上被证明是成功的,即使在市场下跌时也应持续投资。
- 🚫 避免在市场下跌时恐慌性抛售,这可能导致错过市场恢复时的最佳投资时机。
- 💰 保持3到6个月的紧急基金,以应对可能的失业或收入减少情况。
- 💼 保持稳定的收入来源,以避免在市场低迷时不得不出售投资。
- 📋 投资应视为长期计划,短期市场波动不应影响长期的投资决策。
Q & A
视频中提到了多少个历史上的股市崩盘事件?
-视频中提到了7个历史上的股市崩盘事件,包括1929年的大崩盘、1945年后的市场下跌、1970年代的股市动荡、1987年的黑色星期一、2001年的互联网泡沫破裂、2009年的大衰退以及2020年3月至4月的股市崩盘。
根据视频中的分析,股市调整的平均跌幅是多少?
-根据视频中的分析,股市调整的平均跌幅是15.6%。
视频中提到的“熊市”是指什么?
-视频中提到的“熊市”是指股市至少下跌20%的情况。
根据经济学家John Hussman的观点,非金融股票的交易水平预示着什么?
-根据经济学家John Hussman的观点,非金融股票的交易水平预示着标准普尔500指数可能在未来12年内的年化回报率约为-5%。
视频中提到的“市场内在因素”是什么?
-视频中提到的“市场内在因素”是指市场交易的基本面,例如股票的长期现金流价值和估值水平。
视频中提到的“恐慌性抛售”有什么负面影响?
-视频中提到的“恐慌性抛售”会导致投资者在市场低点卖出股票,从而错过市场恢复时的最佳交易日,这可能会显著降低他们的长期投资回报。
视频中提到的“定投”策略有什么优势?
-视频中提到的“定投”策略的优势在于,即使市场短期内出现波动,长期坚持定投可以平均购买成本,减少市场波动的影响,并在市场恢复时获得更大的收益。
视频中提到的“股市崩溃”是如何定义的?
-视频中提到的“股市崩溃”是指整个市场而不仅仅是特定行业的股市至少下跌40%的情况。
视频中提到的“市场过度繁荣”有什么潜在风险?
-视频中提到的“市场过度繁荣”可能会导致投资者因为价格持续上涨而盲目投资,忽略了市场的基本面和潜在风险,从而在市场回调时遭受损失。
视频中提到的“分散投资”策略的目的是什么?
-视频中提到的“分散投资”策略的目的是为了降低风险和减少波动性,通过在多个行业和公司进行投资,避免单一市场或公司的问题对整个投资组合造成过大影响。
视频中提到的“紧急基金”应该保持多少个月的生活费用?
-视频中提到的“紧急基金”应该保持3到6个月的生活费用,以应对可能的失业、收入减少或其他突发情况。
Outlines
📉 股市崩盘的可能性与历史回顾
本段讨论了股市崩盘的可能性,并回顾了历史上的几次重大股市崩盘事件。提到了当前股市的高估值和少数大公司对市场涨幅的贡献,以及市场可能面临的风险。接着,通过历史案例分析,如1929年大崩盘、1970年代的通货膨胀和利率上升导致的股市下跌、1987年的黑色星期一、2001年的互联网泡沫破裂、2009年的金融危机以及2020年的疫情引起的市场动荡,说明了股市崩盘虽然不可避免,但每次恢复后都能达到新高。
📈 股市波动的类型与频率
这一段详细介绍了股市波动的不同类型,包括股市回调、熊市和市场崩溃,并提供了这些波动发生的平均频率和持续时间。例如,股市回调定义为至少10%的跌幅,平均每隔16个月发生一次,而熊市则定义为至少20%的跌幅,平均每隔7到10年发生一次,并且平均持续时间为363天。此外,还讨论了市场崩溃的罕见性,以及历史上仅发生过三次的市场崩溃事件。
💡 股市为何下跌与应对策略
本段探讨了股市可能下跌的原因,引用了经济学家和分析师的观点,指出当前市场的高估值和企业盈利增长的不匹配。同时,提出了应对股市下跌的策略,包括保持3到6个月的紧急基金、投资多元化、持续投资、不恐慌性抛售、保持稳定的收入来源,并建议保留一些现金以备不时之需。这些策略旨在帮助投资者在面对市场波动时保持财务稳定,并能够抓住投资机会。
🚀 长期投资的重要性与市场前景
最后一段强调了长期投资的重要性,并指出即使在市场短期内出现波动,长期持有股票的历史表现从未出现过亏损。提到了通过定期投资和利用复利效应,投资者可以在20年的时间跨度内实现显著的资本增值。同时,提醒投资者要有长期的投资计划,并避免因短期市场波动而做出冲动的投资决策。最后,鼓励观众保持关注市场动态,并通过订阅作者的通讯获取更多信息。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡市场崩溃
💡股市泡沫
💡投资多样化
💡紧急基金
💡定投
💡恐慌性抛售
💡收入稳定
💡现金储备
💡长期投资
💡市场波动
Highlights
市场崩溃是不可避免的,但了解如何应对可以最大化地利用这种情况。
1929年大崩盘后,市场花了25年才完全恢复。
1970年代,美国脱离金本位制导致通货膨胀和市场价值下跌40%。
1987年黑色星期一,股市单日跌幅超过20%,是有史以来最大的单日跌幅。
2001年互联网泡沫破裂,是由于对互联网公司的过度投机造成的。
2009年的金融危机中,房价下跌和银行破产导致股市下跌超过50%。
2020年3月至4月的COVID-19崩溃期间,市场在历史上最糟糕的单日跌幅中下跌了约30%。
2022年的市场崩溃是由于0%的利率、刺激措施和市场活动导致的价格上涨后的调整。
平均而言,股市下跌大约39%,持续平均22个月。
股市修正(下跌至少10%)每16个月发生一次,而熊市(下跌至少20%)每7到10年发生一次。
市场估值高可能导致长期回报降低,因为高估值意味着未来现金流的折现值降低。
股市的上涨不仅仅是由于经济的改善,还可能是由于对低利率的预期和盈利估计的提高。
无论市场如何变化,始终保持3至6个月的紧急基金是明智的。
多元化投资可以减少风险和波动性,通过在多个行业和公司中投资来分散资金。
持续投资是关键,即使市场短期内下跌,长期来看仍有可能获得显著收益。
避免恐慌性抛售,因为频繁买卖可能导致错过市场最好的交易日。
保持稳定的收入来源,以防万一需要在市场低迷时卖出投资。
如果担心市场风险,可以保留一些现金,但要注意长期回报可能不是最优的。
对于短期内需要使用的资金,避免投资于高风险资产,以免面临损失。
长期投资视角是关键,20年持有期从未产生过负面结果。
Transcripts
what's up you guys it's Graham here and
just when you thought things were going
well everything gets okay in all
seriousness we need to address a topic
that not a lot of people want to think
about and that's the fact that at some
point in the future there's going to be
another market crash after all stock
prices have already risen past their
brand new record highs just 10 companies
are responsible for almost all of those
gains and across nearly every single
measure the market is nearing the most
expensive it's ever been in history on
top of that we're already beginning to
see warnings that the S&P 5 00 could
fall as much as 50 to 70% some investors
believe today's prices are beginning to
mirror the extremes of 1929 and we're
now at a point that investors need to
consider that prices don't just go up
indefinitely Forever Without a few bumps
along the way so given all the recent
stock market Euphoria let's discuss
exactly what's going on the likelihood
of another crash coming sometime soon
and then what you could do about it to
plan ahead to make the best of the
situation although before we go into
that I just want to say a quick thank
you to the sponsor of today's video the
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done that already so thank you guys so
much and now let's begin all right so to
start I've said this before but in order
to understand how to best prepare for a
stock market downturn we first have to
cover the stock market crashes that have
happened in the past because even though
it's easy to think I don't want to lose
all of my money the truth is Market
collapses have never been completely cat
catastrophic to the point where you're
going to lose everything for example the
first one most people think about when
you hear market crash is the year of
1929 leading up to that throughout the
Roaring 1920s money was practically
pouring out of every crevice Banks were
lending money to anybody who asked and
people for a lack of a better word took
that money and then speculated on stock
prices because those prices just kept
going higher however once the market
showed even a slight glimpse of
vulnerability people began Cashing Out
withdrawing their money from the banks
for fear that the banks would be out of
business but Banks didn't have enough
cash to give back to all those customers
so one after one they began shutting
down that led to the stock market
dropping 83% over 2.8 years and the
stock market didn't fully recover until
25 years later however it wasn't exactly
smooth sailing because after the world
war of 1945 we saw another drop in the
markets of almost 22% over 6 months as
veterans re-entered the workforce began
competing for a limited supply of jobs
and the economy had to readjust without
all the government spending then again
in the 1970s we saw more turbulent times
between January of 1973 and December of
1974 the stock market lost over 40% of
its value this occurred when the US
dollar was removed from the gold
standard which led to Runaway inflation
so in order to combat that strict
policies were put in place to raise
interest rates and keep the value of our
money in check which inadvertently
caused everything else to come crashing
down but after that of course we have
the infamous Black Monday of 1987 when
stocks dropped over 20 2% in a single
day now the exact cause of this is a bit
unclear although because there weren't
any safeguards in place to prevent such
An Occurrence from happening this
mixture of factors led to a sequence of
once in a-lifetime events that caused
the single biggest day stock market drop
ever then we have the bubble of 2001
which was caused by a frenzy of
speculation over internet related
companies somewhat like we saw during
the IPO boom of 2021 except with
everything times 10 but that was
unsustainable when those companies
couldn't actually make any money so they
lost the vast majority of their value
sure enough though the market crashes
continued to in in 2009 we had the Great
Recession in this case Banks lent out
way too much money to people who weren't
qualified who then went to purchase
houses and once they couldn't sustain
those payments they began defaulting as
a result banks that held those loans
began shutting down people were losing
their homes left and right the entire
stock market dropped over 50% the
Federal Reserve stepped in to bail them
out and then everything recovered quite
well for the next decade until the co
Crash from March through April of 2020
we saw some of the single worst Point
day drops ever in history and from the
peak the S&P 500 dropped roughly 30% in
value but before the markets could drop
too far the Federal Reserve stepped in
they lowered interest rates put together
a bailout and within a month the market
began to recover and finally we have the
most recent event which would be the
stock market crash of
2022 why well thanks to 0% interest
rates stimulus tax breaks and a lot of
activity in the market prices rallied
basic basically from April of 2020 to
December of 2021 the S&P 500 increased
over 100% but once it became clear that
inflation was getting out of control and
that the Federal Reserve would have to
step in the market plummeted roughly 26%
over the following 10 months however
like every crash that came before us
that was only temporary and again we're
back at all-time highs so given how the
average stock market drop is roughly 39%
and last an average of 22 months is this
something that we have to worry about
today and how likely are we to see
another crash like this in the future
now in terms of how often the stock
market drops that really just depends on
how much it drops and the severity of
each drop is broken down as follows we
first have what's known as a stock
market correction which is defined as a
drop of at least 10% now it's important
to mention that normal volatility
throughout the market is extremely
common in fact since the 1920s the S&P
500 has un average seen a 5% pullback
three times a year the market
Corrections are also fairly common too
on average a 10% correction happens
every 16 months and throughout the last
20 years a 10% drop has happened 11
times and if you're like me and you like
averages the average drop has so far
been 15.6% and lasts for 71.6 days after
that though we go on to the slightly
more severe category and that's a bare
Market which is defined as a drop of at
least 20% according to the data this
typically occurs every 7 to 10 years and
when it hits it tends to hit pretty hard
during a bare Market the average drop
tends to be around 33% and it falls over
a period of 363 days now it's important
to mention that with all of this these
are just averages and that doesn't mean
the next drop is going to be exactly 33%
or that the next drop has to last a year
because most of the time they don't
conform to the average for instance back
in March of 2020 we saw the fastest 30%
drop ever in history since the Great
Depression so anything could happen
especially if you don't expect it to and
finally we have the last one to cover
and that would be a stop stock market
collaps I'd consider this to be a drop
of at least 40% throughout the entire
Market not just specific Industries and
throughout the last 120 years it's only
happened three times once in 1929 once
again in the 1970s and again in 209 so
an actual stock market collapse like
this isn't exactly common but it's not
impossible to happen throughout our
lifetimes that's why once we understand
the differences between these and how
often they happen we could come up with
the plan to best take advantage of them
and come out profitable so here's how to
start in terms of why the market could
drop some analysts have some very Choice
words to say about where the market is
trading because historically it is
expensive for example the economist John
husman makes the argument that
non-financial stocks are trading at
levels that we haven't seen since 1929
and 2001 because of that he believes
that these levels indicate that the S&P
500 is likely to return around -5%
annualized over the next 12 years he
also points to a metric that I have
never heard discussed before and that's
what's known as Market internals and
yeah that sounds confusing he gives us
an example one if enough speculators
believe that stock market gains are
driven by a tap dancing squirrel monkey
and that squirrel monkey begins to tap
dance stock prices go up at least in the
short term and two because those stocks
are ultimately valued in terms of their
long-term cash flow higher valuations
mean lower long-term returns which is
the reason why no speculative episode in
history is ever ended did well or
basically investor psychology plays a
large part in how the stock market
actively trades and when there's a
Divergence between reality and
speculation bad things tend to happen of
course to give some credit to these
claims John husman did correctly predict
that tech stocks back in 2001 would drop
83% before they literally fell 83% he
predicted the Lost decade of stocks in
the 2000s that wound up happening and he
predicted the 2008 Great Recession right
before everything collapsed although In
fairness I will say that his performance
since then has been pretty terrible his
strategic growth fund is down 40% since
2000 his total return fund is up only
11% in The Last 5 Years and a strategic
allocation fund lost 4.5% over the last
5 years so a broken clock could still
very well be right twice a day however
this time John husman isn't alone in his
thinking The Economist David Rosenberg
believes there's truth to these claims
that the stock market is poised to drop
saying that just like the clown at a
circus who keeps blowing up the balloon
at some point the balloon is going to
pop and a sort of look at the stock
market right now as the clown of the
circus blowing up the balloon his
reasoning though is a lot easier to
follow as he explains the S&P 500 is up
32% in the last 12 months while
corporate profits Rose just 4% this
means that the vast majority of those
gains clearly can't be attributed to
improvements and earnings results
instead the economy is simply going up
for three main reasons a better than
feared economy a significant jump in
earnings estimates and the expectation
of lower rates that's it this means that
his bare case is an S&P 500 dropping to
3,200 or a 39% drop from today's levels
unless companies can dramatically
increase their actual earnings the
legendary investor Jeremy Grantham also
seconds him by saying that prolonged
bull markets typically begin when
unemployment is high profit margins are
depressed and stock valuations are
beaten down current conditions are the
polar opposite of that especially when
the Shiller price to earnings ratio is
within the top 1% of its historical
range of course in terms of what you
could actually do about all this let's
just make one thing clear I'm not
suggesting that a market crash like this
is imminent or that one is going to
happen anytime soon because for every be
case out there there's just as equally
of a good bull case where stocks go even
higher like with Goldman sachs's recent
example for this reason all we know for
sure is that at some point in the future
the Market's going to crash again and
how you prepare for that is going to
make all the difference so this is what
you came for first always keep a 3 to 6-
Monon emergency fund at all times I know
I sound like a broken record because I
say this all the time in practically
every single one of my videos but it's
true having a 3 to 6month emergency fund
saved up in cash at all times is one of
the easiest things that you could do to
make it tree you last through a stock
market drop by doing this you're going
to be that much less likely to have to
sell off your stocks in the event you
lose your job see a reduction in income
or something unforeseen just comes up at
a time when everything's at a low second
diversify your Investments for example
if you're 100% invested in Nvidia Reddit
and Truth social there's a good chance
you could lose a good chunk of money
just like tech stocks dropped 78% during
the tech bubble there's a chance that
could happen to you too if you're not
properly invested across multiple
sectors and across multiple companies or
in other words the more you spread out
your money the more you reduce your risk
and decrease volatility and this is
exactly what I've done I've made sure to
have a small amount of ownership
throughout almost everything from index
funds to real estate to cash to
treasuries to bitcoin that way should
one of those markets fall I have more
than enough to make up for it with the
others and if everything drops I still
have to cash on hand to be able to
continue buying in third speaking of
buying in studies show that you should
just keep buying in listen I know it's
g- wrenching to watch your Investments
drop 10% only to buy in thinking you're
getting a great deal for it to drop
another 10% it keeps doing that until
eventually you give up but study after
study shows that the best thing
statistically that you could do is keep
buying in longterm even though a bare
Market could temporarily lose you an
average of 33% a bull market on the
other hand is an average gain of 158%
and it last almost five times longer
it's 1742 days that's why sure it's not
exactly encouraging to lose onethird of
your investment but with every loss
comes the opportunity for a much greater
gain if you stick with it oh and by the
way if you want an easy way to do this
there are apps out there that'll
literally do everything for you without
you needing to think about it for
instance I've partnered with acorns
which has a feature where they could
round up all of your purchases to the
nearest dollar and then invest the
difference in your behalf so if you
spend $2.50 on French fries that's 50
cents that automatically gets invested
something like this is also really
helpful just to stay the course stick
with the plan and keep investing long
term I've personally been using them
since 2018 and with regular
contributions I've now got almost
$100,000 invested with them and it's
growing like this year alone I'm up over
$6,000 just because the Market's done so
well so if you're interested in signing
up I was able to negotiate to get you a
$20 bonus just for the month of April
which is way higher than the $5 they
typically give you again that's $20 for
probably 3 minutes worth of work when
you go to acorns.com gram or use the
link Down Below in the description like
without exaggeration I was on a call
with them to bump this amount up as high
as I could and $20 is insane for just a
few minutes of your time like in less
time than it takes you to watch this
section of the video you can make $20
enjoy anyway speaking of all of this
that brings me to number four Don't
Panic sell here's what I've noticed the
psychology that causes you to sell when
your investment is dropping is usually
the same mindset that causes you to to
buy in because it keeps going higher and
you don't want to miss out in fact as an
example of this Peter Lynch's fund
throughout the 1980s had an annualized
return of 29% but the average investor
of that fund returned just 7% which was
even lower than market returns that's
because the vast majority of people
rushed in after it had already done well
and then they sold the moment it dropped
in price thereby eliminating most of the
benefits of sticking with it long term
on top of that another aspect to
consider is that over the last 20 years
a $10,000 investment in the S&P 500
would have turned into
$64,000 if you just kept the money
invested without touching it however if
you panic sell and Miss just the best 10
trading days over 20 years your return
diminishes down to
$29,000 if you miss the best 20 days
you'd lose out on $47,000 worth of
profit missing the best 30 days means
you've basically broken even over two
decades and if you miss the best 40 days
you'd flat out lose money so by cashing
out and then buying back in you risk
missing those best days that contribute
to a significant portion of your overall
return but of course assuming you could
do that number five make sure to keep a
steady income in this case the worst
possible scenario is that you lose your
job you don't have an emergency fund you
have to sell off your Investments to
stay afloat and you have to do all of
that during a time when your Investments
have declined in value this is why an
emergency fund would hopefully be enough
to hold you over until the market
eventually recovers but even if it
doesn't having a consistent income in
place is going to help prevent you from
having to sell off things when you don't
absolutely have have to and then finally
number six keep some extra cash on hand
if that makes you feel better I'll admit
statistically keeping cash on hand is
not the most optimal for results and
usually if you want the highest return
it's investing your money as soon as
possible but if you're worried about
doing that keeping more cash on hand is
a way to sleep at night oh and also I
just want to throw this in there as an
honorary number seven but if you need
the money in the short term it's
probably not a good idea to invest it in
anything risky the reality is a few
years is not long enough to ensure that
you're going to see a return on your
money and you could see a loss which is
not something you want to do for money
that you know you need in the future
this is why you should ideally view all
of this as a 10 to 20-year plan and if
you're young the longer the better the
reality is if you could do the above
you're practically guaranteed to make
money over a 20-year time span
regardless of what the market does in
the short term I say this so confidently
because throughout the entire history of
the stock market a 20-year holding
period has never once produced a
negative result that literally means
that you could buy in at the absolute
Peak that the day before a catastrophic
collapse not do a single thing for the
next two decades and still wind up
making money according to past results
on top of that what so many people don't
realize or simply forget especially if
you're young is that you're unlikely
just to make one single investment one
time and that's it forever instead even
though your initial investment might
drop realistically you're going to be
investing over a long period of time and
that'll dollar cost average your overall
portfolio that's why if you see your
investment drop and you decide not to
buy in you could very well be missing
out on those best days in the market and
that's not good so even though I've
shared this message in the past I feel
like it's especially important to share
again today because I'm seeing a lot
more stock market Euphoria a lot of new
investors beginning to enter the market
and a lot of people investing because
prices are just continually going up but
even though the market has so far done
really well just be conscious that as
fast as it could go up it could also go
down and at the end of the day at some
point in the future another stock market
crash is going to be inevitable is going
to happen tomorrow next week next month
next year who knows maybe the market
goes up another 100% before it drops 30%
anybody can make a prediction who knows
what's going to happen but at least when
you expect that it will happen at some
point in the future and you prepare for
it ahead of time by making sure you have
the emergency fund you're properly
Diversified and you know what to expect
you could at least be better prepared
not to make any mistakes like not
subscribing and hitting the like button
if you haven't done that already so with
that said thank you so much and as usual
if you want more information that I'm
able to provide in a YouTube video check
out my newsletter Down Below in the
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and until next time
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