JOSH BROWN says "TIGHTENING CYCLE HASN'T CAUSED ANYTHING TO BLOW UP"
Summary
TLDROn 'Halftime Report,' Scott Wapner and guests discuss the record run for stocks amid a bull market, with major inflows and Dow Jones, S&P, and Nasdaq reaching new highs. The conversation covers Bank of America's equity inflows, the impact of the Fed's loosening cycle, and money market funds. Guests weigh in on reallocating investments, with a focus on equities, and the potential for a market rally as professional money managers chase returns. The show also analyzes specific stocks and sectors, offering technical insights on PayPal, Cisco, and real estate ETFs using the Ichimoku indicator.
Takeaways
- 📈 The stock market is experiencing a record run with major inflows, hinting at a strong bull market.
- 💹 The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ are all extending their record highs.
- 💰 Bank of America reported the third-largest equity inflows in history, with nearly $21 billion invested in US equities.
- 📉 Despite the largest decline since August 2021, markets have shown resilience, suggesting confidence in the market's upward trajectory.
- 🏦 Money market funds hold a substantial amount of capital, indicating a potential for significant investment into riskier assets.
- 📊 The S&P 500 has seen a 19% increase year-to-date, reflecting a robust performance despite economic uncertainties.
- 🔍 There's a strategic reallocation occurring from cash and fixed income to equities, indicating a shift in investor sentiment.
- 🌐 Positive news from China about economic stimulus and regulatory support has boosted global markets, particularly cyclical stocks.
- 📱 Technology stocks like PayPal, which Josh Brown recommended, are performing well and are seen as strong investment picks.
- 🏢 Discussions suggest that financials, industrials, and materials sectors are attractive due to their valuations and potential for growth.
Q & A
What is the current status of the stock market according to the discussion?
-The stock market is experiencing a record run with major inflows and is in a bullish state, extending record highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P, and Nasdaq.
What was the biggest equity inflow recorded by Bank of America recently?
-The biggest equity inflow since October 2022, and the third largest in their data history, occurred recently with almost billion dollars going into US equities.
Why are investors showing confidence in the market despite the economic slowdown?
-Investors are confident due to the Federal Reserve's loosening cycle, absence of a recession, and no major market-disrupting events. Additionally, the market has seen a 19% increase year-to-date on the S&P.
What does the discussion suggest about the future of money market funds?
-Money market funds currently hold a large amount of money, but with the Federal Reserve cutting rates, there is an expectation that investors will start reallocating their funds from these risk-free assets into equities.
What is the significance of the Federal Reserve's rate cut on the market according to the discussion?
-The Federal Reserve's rate cut is seen as a tailwind for stocks, encouraging a major reallocation out of cash and fixed income into equities, which is expected to push the market higher.
What is the current stance of the guests on the potential of equities in the market?
-The guests have a positive stance on equities, expecting them to perform well due to the reallocation of funds from cash and fixed income, as well as the accommodative stance of the Federal Reserve.
What is the consensus on the impact of geopolitical risks and upcoming elections on the market?
-While there is an acknowledgment that geopolitical risks and upcoming elections could cause some volatility, the general consensus is that these factors might only cause a slight shift in risk appetite rather than a significant downturn.
What are the implications of China's central bank stimulus for the market?
-China's central bank stimulus is seen as a significant positive for the market, as it could lead to a 'sugar rush' of investment in cyclical stocks and potentially signal a broader recovery in the Chinese economy.
What are the recommended strategies for investors according to the discussion?
-Investors are advised to consider reallocation strategies, potentially moving into equities, credit, or other areas of the market that offer better returns than current cash holdings, especially with the Federal Reserve's rate cuts.
What are the final stock picks mentioned by the guests?
-The final stock picks mentioned by the guests include PayPal, Cisco Systems, Citizens Financial, and a few others, with each being chosen based on various market indicators and personal analysis.
Outlines
📈 Stock Market Bull Run and Investor Confidence
The paragraph discusses the ongoing bull market, with record inflows into stocks as investors seem to be embracing the idea of not fighting the Federal Reserve's policies. The conversation includes financial experts such as Josh Brown and Brian Bsky, who analyze market trends, equity inflows, and the potential for reallocation of funds from cash and fixed income to equities. They also touch on the impact of the Fed's rate cut on investment strategies and the overall positive sentiment in the market, despite some historical volatility.
💼 Reallocation of Cash and Market Outlook
This section delves into the potential for a significant reallocation of cash from fixed income to equities, with experts like Jim Lenthal and Brian Bsky sharing their views. They discuss the market's performance, the possibility of a broader move to equities outside of concentrated areas, and the potential impact of geopolitical risks and upcoming elections on investment strategies. The conversation also includes insights from Rick Rieder, CIO of fixed income at Black Rock, who suggests that despite rich valuations, stocks could still perform well due to the substantial amount of cash on the sidelines.
🏦 China's Economic Policies and Global Market Impact
The paragraph focuses on China's central bank and financial regulations, highlighting the country's efforts to stimulate its economy and promote capital markets. The discussion includes the potential for increased mergers and acquisitions, lower mortgage rates, and the overall positive impact of these policies on global markets, particularly on cyclical stocks. The experts also touch on the importance of China's economic engine to the world market and how its policies could influence investment decisions in various sectors.
📊 Market Analysis and Technical Indicators
This section provides a detailed analysis of the stock market's performance, using technical indicators like the ichimoku indicator to evaluate stocks and ETFs. The discussion covers various sectors, including technology, financials, and materials, and how they are performing in the market. The experts also discuss the importance of using technical analysis in conjunction with fundamental analysis to make informed investment decisions.
📉 Market Trends and Sector Performance
The paragraph discusses the performance of various market sectors, with a focus on those that are showing strong trends and those that are lagging. The conversation includes an analysis of sector-specific ETFs, such as XLE for energy and XLV for healthcare, and their current market conditions. The experts also provide insights into how to interpret technical indicators like the ichimoku cloud and fractals to predict future market movements.
🚀 Bullish Market Movements and Investment Strategies
This section highlights the bullish movements in the market and provides investment strategies for various stocks and ETFs. The discussion includes specific recommendations for stocks like PayPal and Cisco, along with advice on when to enter or exit positions based on technical indicators. The experts also discuss the importance of managing risk by moving stop losses as the market moves and waiting for optimal entry points.
🌐 Global Economic Engines and Market Influence
The paragraph discusses the role of China as a significant economic engine and its influence on global markets. The conversation includes insights into how China's policies and economic performance can impact investment strategies and market trends. The experts also touch on the potential for a 'China comeback' and its effect on commodity and cyclical stocks.
📉 Declining Market Sectors and Cautionary Tales
This section focuses on market sectors that are experiencing declines, such as energy and utilities, and provides cautionary advice for investors. The discussion includes an analysis of technical indicators that suggest a downtrend and the importance of avoiding investments in declining markets. The experts also discuss the potential risks of trying to 'buy the dip' and the importance of waiting for market confirmation before entering positions.
📱 Technology Stocks and Market Resistance
The paragraph discusses the performance of technology stocks, such as Google and Apple, and their current market resistance levels. The conversation includes an analysis of these stocks' technical indicators and the potential for future growth or decline. The experts also provide insights into how to interpret market signals and make informed investment decisions based on both technical and fundamental analysis.
🌐 Global Economic Outlook and Investment Opportunities
This section provides an overview of the global economic outlook and highlights potential investment opportunities in various sectors. The discussion includes insights into how economic policies and market trends can influence investment decisions and the importance of diversifying portfolios to manage risk. The experts also discuss the potential for increased market volatility and the need for investors to stay informed and adaptable.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bull Market
💡Equity Inflows
💡FED
💡Money Market Funds
💡Volatility
💡Reallocation
💡Yield
💡Recession
💡Earnings
💡Multiple
💡Geopolitical Risk
Highlights
Stocks are experiencing a record run with the bull market seeing major inflows.
Equity client flows from Bank of America reported the third largest equity inflows in history last week.
Discussion on whether investors should be buying into the bull market despite recent market dips.
Fed's loosening cycle and lack of market disruptions are reasons for increased buying.
Money market funds hold a large amount of capital, potentially indicating future investment movements.
Reallocation from cash and fixed income to equities is anticipated as part of an investment shift.
Experts predict a significant reallocation out of cash into equities, driving the market.
Rick Rieder from Black Rock suggests that with the Fed's rate cut, both equities and debt could perform well.
Geopolitical risks and upcoming elections might influence investment strategies.
The potential for a broader move to equities outside of current concentrated areas is discussed.
Valuations and earnings expectations are considered in the context of market performance.
The impact of China's central bank stimulating the economy on global markets is highlighted.
China's policy bazooka has been unleashed, indicating significant economic movement.
The importance of China's economic policies for global investors is emphasized.
Final stock picks by the panel include PayPal, Cisco Systems, and Citizens Financial.
Technical analysis using the Ichimoku indicator on various stocks and ETFs is provided.
Transcripts
all right thanks so much welcome to the
halftime report I'm Scott wner front and
center this hour the record run for
stocks as the bull market sees major
inflows we will break down these new
numbers and debate what it means for the
rally joining me for the hour Josh Brown
Shannon Sosha Jim lenthal Brian bsky
we'll check the markets we are in the
green across the board extending those
record highs for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average S&P
5729 we're watching that here good for
about a quarter of a percent nasdaq's
good for about a half so Josh confidence
was a Miss biggest decline since August
of 21 markets Shrugged that off a bit
and as I said it feels like investors
are buying into this don't fight the FED
notion because as I mentioned here
Equity client flows from Bank of America
the third largest equity inflows in the
history of their data last week net
buyers of us equities almost billion
that's the biggest since October of
2022 is that what we should be doing
buying into this bull market
here look I think I think the reasons
for the buying are fairly obvious we are
now uh into the FED loosening cycle and
the tightening cycle hasn't caused
anything to blow up and this was one of
the if when you talk to people that were
sitting in Money Market funds and by the
way money market funds uh had a total of
6.3 trillion doar which is a huge amount
of money both in absolute terms and
relative uh to the overall investment
markets when you talk to people who were
sitting with 30 40 50% of their assets
getting 5% risk-free 5 and a half% you
know close to 5 and a half% one of the
number one things they said was I'm
happy with my 5% like uh I'm not taking
any risk I don't have to worry about
volatility I don't have to worry about
the fed and blah blah blah now the FED
is cutting we haven't had the recession
that was prophecied um and and we
haven't had any sort of like major event
exogenous event that has come to blow up
the market so now what happens you're up
19% year-to date on the S&P we don't
have one of those massive issues at
least not at the the current moment and
now that overnight weight is coming down
look how fast the two-year moved so now
people are saying well wait a minute 5%
was awesome 4 and a half% % is pretty
good 4% is not going to feel great and
3.5% which is where the the betting
markets are is going to feel terrible
especially if the markets remain healthy
and earnings are going to grow so I do
think there's going to be a lot of
reallocation and I think the flows that
you saw this week Scott are directly
attributed to this idea of people
positioning ahead of that are they
directly attributed Brian for one of the
reasons why you raise your S&P Target to
60 100 last week the highest on Wall
Street assuming that fed's cutting
money's going to come out of cash
equivalent money markets and whatever
else and go into equities and help for
that push yeah thanks for having by the
way I think the big thing is we're
really looking at a major reallocation
out of cash and fixed income by the way
into equities a lot of people as Josh
said have missed this especially a lot
of Institutions but a lot of our private
wealth clients have been participating
into this we wrote the note before the
FED cut and then we wanted to see what
the Fed was talking about after it cut
it was a mood point for us whether or
not it was going to be 25 or 50 but at
the end of the day Josh is right the
trend is your friend in terms of the
direction of the fed this is a Tailwind
for stocks and we still think there's a
lot of participation beginning to expand
which is a very very strong notion for a
bull market I mean you're you're
assuming I think you know many are that
this mountain of cash that's been
sitting over there is going to come into
equities Rick reer Black Rock yesterday
closing
um listen to what he told me about all
this money on the sideline and he likes
stocks he said as much multiple
times but he might like something a
little better listen boy there's a lot
of cash and with the FED fo putting foam
on the runway with the FED bringing the
rate down could they could both equities
and debt do well I think so my only
point is would you move the needle going
into an election geopolitical risk would
you move the needle a little bit
downshift the risk takes some yield that
that's the direction travel
in now sh there are those who might say
well of course he's going to say that
he's the CIO of fixed income at the
world's largest asset manager but Rick's
not like that he's nuanced I mean he
knows he says when he likes stocks a lot
stocks are going to go up he'll tell you
straight out but given the risks that he
cites geopolitical you got an election
coming up do you actually get a better
bang for your buck is it better for risk
to actually go into credit here with the
cash that Brian talks about Josh talks
about and so many other sites well I
think there's a misperception that all
of the cash came out of equities in the
first place and so now when you're
thinking about what the potential is
you're looking at two factors number one
um where do you think you're going to
want to have your money at the beginning
of 2025 and so that's your eventual goal
as you look to position for next year in
an environment where the economy maybe
is not slowing quite as fast as some had
feared but more importantly there's
accommodative fed back back stop at this
point second if you were in cash that
came from fixed income I agree with you
Scott I think that there is some desire
to potentially add some credit exposure
and it's not necessary to go out too far
on the curve if you just think about
sort of the inter short to intermediate
part of the curve out of cash moving up
along the curve you could hang out there
for a little while as you wait to see
what happens with the election but I do
think that there was enough of this cash
and we talked about this for a long time
that could potentially fuel not only
only just a broader move to equities but
also a move to equities that are outside
of the areas where people have been
concentrated so there's this dual
concentration this barbel of cash and
mega cap Tech and there's a lot of
opportunities to either take more credit
risk more duration risk or Equity risk
outside of those areas where you had
this barbell Jimmy I mean his point
reader point is yeah I like stocks a lot
but A lot's already priced in valuations
are rich because stocks have run a lot
expect ations for earnings are pretty
high going forward maybe too high and
therefore it doesn't justify the
multiple to where stocks have run we
already know the cuts are are in the
Market at this point yeah I I mean look
his analysis is spoton however I believe
Scott that the market is going to go
higher I think Brian's actually right on
6100 now the an the analysis is going to
say well wait a second that's 22 times
next year's earnings that's too much how
could that possibly be you're perfectly
legitimate to have that opinion but
here's what's going to happen because it
happens every time when you have a year
like the one that we're in where you're
up big going into the fourth quarter you
know what happens professional money
managers some of whom have sat on the
sidelines to a certain degree they
didn't believe it let's face it there
were plenty of times this year that
people thought a recession was imminent
and some people reflected that in their
portfolios they will be forced it
happens every time you have a year like
this they will be forced to chase the
rally it will happen and we can discuss
whether Brian's right or wrong and
whether 22 times next year's earnings is
right or wrong but what I just described
is highly likely to happen maybe
volatility that some expect to happen
between now and the end of the year
chases some people away from actually
chasing the rally and by the way in a uh
email back and forth this morning Rick
reer says the following I think real
rates are super attractive especially
relative to where beta is priced I think
equities will do okay given the cash out
there the broader Point that's been made
here I just think they're far from
cheaper valuation supported at these
levels and I think to the so to the
extent first off he's right real rates
are attractive in terms of where they've
been for the last 20 15 years on bonds
they are however if you're concerned
that maybe 22 times next year's earnings
is a little lofty look at other areas of
the markets now this is a discussion
that we've been having for quite some
time I will be the first to admit a lot
of fits and starts in terms of our small
caps for real is the equal weight S&P
500 where you should be what about
cyclicals and the answer to the question
is if you're scared off it's legitimate
about 22 times next year's earnings look
at sectors like financials Industrials
energy materials which not only have
attractive multiples they have good
yields and just maybe and I'm not going
to put a lot in this but maybe the China
news go finish maybe the China news
China news is for real I like where
you're going with that because a lot of
those areas of the market are moving
higher today on the news out of China
that you know the central bank's going
to stimulate the economy there as much
as they have to as if anybody ever
doubted that but nonetheless it's the
Industrials materials those stocks are
hitting record intraday highs today yeah
and look what they're not doing which
they need to do and I'm not being
provocative here is knocking down all
those empty buildings and rebuilding
them I'm not being provocative that's
what you really need to do if you want
to recover the steel Market the energy
Market the concrete Market all that sort
of thing however they are taking an
important step in that direction we're
seeing it reflected in commodity and
other cyclical stocks today you know is
this a little bit of a sugar rush
perhaps but they're moving in the right
direction that's what the market and the
valuations of those highly cyclical
stocks are demanding they're getting it
it just shows you Josh how starved
people are uh for this China comeback
kweb leaders today by the way you picked
it as your contrarian play this year 10
cents up 15% jd.com is up 10 PDD
Holdings is up 10 Alibaba is a new 52e
high today as well
yeah the hangsang and the Shanghai
composite both gapped up 4% the news hit
uh 9:00 a.m. so both of the major uh
both of the major stock markets uh in in
China gapped higher and the K web is up
like 9% as we speak I want to I want to
double click on what you just said
because I think it's the most important
part of the news it's not just China's
Central Bank this is in conjunction with
the state Administration for financial
regulation so this is the the equivalent
to what happened during covid when the
treasury and the FED got together and
jointly announced how we were going to
deal with this holistically across the
whole economy and and the markets um my
friend uh Brendan Hearn at crane shares
who watches this space closer than
anyone said the policy bazooka has been
Unleashed you guys should probably book
him for closing bell today here's the
bottom line This is not just lower
interest rates they are directing
mortgage rates lower to where they want
them they are deliberately talking about
supporting private Equity they want to
bring about mergers and Acquisitions
this is Chinese Regulators saying more
mergers and Acquisitions you know what
they looked at they looked at the
success of Japan the Japanese stock
market had directed all of the listed
companies on the Nik to come up with a
plan within one year of how they're
going to increase shareholder value if
your stock is selling below Book value
tell us in print what you're going to do
about it and we're going to put it on
our website and there was a study that
looked at what happened to the Japanese
companies that were the soonest to
Market with their plan to increase the
valuation of their own stock th those
stocks absolutely went berserk to the
upside the Chinese are not immune to
that Zeitgeist they see it happening in
in Japan and they say well why is our
stock market the worst large stock
market in the world the reason this is
important for us investors is because
regardless of the political reality
China is still the most important
economic engine in the world more
important to Europe than to us fine but
this stuff matters it matters to our
cyclical companies it matters to our
entertainment companies it matters for
Consumer Staples companies so I
genuinely think that we should be
emphasizing the fact that China wants to
get serious about promoting Capital
markets and I don't think it should just
get lost in the shuffle it's a very big
deal Josh what's your
final uh PayPal continues to make new
highs I am rolling up my stop loss but
staying with the
trade thank you very much Brian bsky
citizens Financial 4% dividend yields a
dividend grower 18% free cash flow yield
all right good having you back with us
here on the desk farmer Jim Cisco
Systems I continue to believe this uh
quietly softly is going to set a new
high for the year thank to why are you
laughing expecting like was it code for
something else you thought maybe for
having us it's our pleasure dude if you
have more than 30 years experience
you're welcome anytime on this program
okay Shan what's your final re uh it's
not just declining inflation and lower
rates it's also that they're in good
shape they have turned out their debt um
during the low rate period all right
good stuff I'll see you on closing bell
hello everybody Welcome to blue cloud
trading it is Tuesday September 24th we
just saw Josh Brown and a few other
guests on the halftime report they
shared their final picks those four
stocks that you see right there on the
left we're going to analyze each and
every one of those we're going to use
the ichimoku indicator and I'll let you
know what I think based on the
technicals uh we're also going to cover
the indices including a lot of ETFs
Within These indices like the small cap
and large cap midcap we'll also look at
a lot of the sectors including gold
Bitcoin real estate all that stuff okay
uh and we'll also cover two two of the
Fab 7 stocks Google and apple why not
the rest well I happen to be holding
positions in the other stocks and I Do
cover them I cover them for members if
you are a member you can access those
you can become a member by joining come
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click on the join button select blue
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and I basically post all of the trades
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members in the community tab here all
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post for blue cloud Traders so anyway
let's get back into now that we got all
that out of the way let's take a look
and see how the markets are doing today
they did well they did okay you know
they were all up uh you can see that the
Dow was up
.16 you know not that much really for
the Dow NASDAQ was up the most 47% and
it looked a little bit scary actually in
the beginning part of the day because uh
as you can see here we had that big drop
right in the early morning and so that
was a little bit concerning but then it
created like almost like a v-neck type
you know recovery here and once we got
above that prior uh see that from 9:00
there 9:30 a.m. sorry the high of 9:30
a.m. we basically stayed above that area
for the most part so that is a positive
thing and then same thing happened with
the S&P 500 right and the Russell 2000
uh so the S&P 500 was up
0.20% and the Russell 2000 up
0.25 um we've got 88.9% here of the
stocks experiencing new highs that's
huge um in the S&P 500 and then about
70% are above the 50-day moving average
68% above the 200 day moving average all
right so that's very good now the market
hasn't closed yet if you notice right
here it's 3:57 p.m. all right so just a
few more minutes left so it's pretty
we're pretty close um let's look at the
map here you may see some of these
numbers changing a little bit in the
next few minutes but it should close
around the same area uh let's see so
we've got Nvidia up making a nice little
jump
3.81% and most of the um semiconductors
as you can see here we're all in the
green that's good financials like Visa
Mastercard and you know Bank of America
um where's Bank of America I'm not
seeing it in here but basically yeah you
know were're most of these were pretty
negative except for PayPal which was up
081 that was Josh's pick we're going to
look at that one in a few moments basic
materials did really well today Tesla
was up Home Depot Google Apple meta was
down a little bit Microsoft was down 1%
Costco was down
1.7 all right now let's take a look at
the group screener this shows us
the sectors that were strongest today
and you'll see basic materials and
consumer cyclical were the strongest
technology was next then communication
Services financials and utilities didn't
do that great but they didn't really
drop that much either you know
financials were down 0.59 and then
utilities were down just a quarter of a
percent all right nothing major there
here's the uh onewe performance if you
want to check that
out all right let's get into the stocks
that they recommended at the end these
were the final trades PayPal was Josh
Brown's pick let's look at this
closer okay we've got the ichimoku
indicator let me get rid of those lines
for a moment so just briefly um let me
just tell you some of the rules of this
indicator we want price to be above the
tankinson the green line above the red
line keinen we want it to be above the
cloud the ichimoku cloud one of the
unique features about this IND about
this indicator is the is the cloud
itself which is based on mathematical
equations and I can specify those I mean
basically the synp a the top of the
cloud IT projects by the way 26 periods
into the future okay that's the midpoint
of the two moving averages right there
and IT projects 26 per into the future
the purple line is the midpoint of each
and every one of these last 52 periods
here or 52 days in this case and IT
projects right there 26 per into the
future very unique um you won't find
that in any other indicator and then the
PayPal I'm sorry the uh Chu span here
the white line that you see hovering in
the background why is this in the back
here why is it in the past well uh the
creator of the indicator decided he
wanted to be able to look at the closing
prices which is that's the closing
prices for today so if you go back and
you project the 26 periods there it is
that's the closing price price today um
you know down here for example the
closing prices it led to that level
right there anyway it projects 26 perod
in the past and what the idea is to look
to see where that is in relation to 26
periods ago to the candle below it
sometimes it will be above the
candle as it is in this case here
sometimes it will be under like it was
over here when it's above the price
that's very bullish when it's under it's
bearish it means that that you're in a
downtrend and by the way when price is
itself is inside the cloud or under the
cloud the one of the rules of ichimoku
is you do not enter a long position you
also want to basically stay out of
stocks that are under these moving
average um if if the price happens to be
under you want to wait for it to break
out above the moving averages before an
entry anyway okay so PayPal how's it
doing right now it's doing good if you
look at the weekly
chart you know we recently broke above
the cloud this is a good sign this means
that that we are in the early stages of
a potential nice move up for PayPal
because it has had in fact a very huge
decline right if you go back here to the
Past in 2021 and um you know February
19th of 2021 you know it dropped
approximately 82.8 4% all right in
approximate and and it lasted a a good
basically 2.7 years now what's happened
recently is
there's a lot of buyers starting to step
back into this stock and that's a good
thing so it's breaking through prior
highs for example if you look at these
levels here see that prior High broke
through that here and that's a weekly
chart by the way so that was on Friday
what was that date Friday September 20th
we have that we got above the cloud on
this candle that happened on August
16th and since that happened if you look
down below you'll notice that the adx
here that's the momentum indicator is
moving up so that is positive momentum
we've got the green line above the red
line that's the positive di9 above the
negative D9 and everything is looking
pretty good overall for PayPal on the
weekly and it does look good on the
daily as well so I agree on this one it
has gotten a little bit far away from
the moving averages though right there
that's an equilibrium level so when
price gets far away from those levels
many times it will start to gravitate
back to it
all right it's like a magnet so you know
you have to watch it very closely at
this point I don't know if this is an
optimal entry point okay an optimal
entry point would have been right there
when it first broke above the green line
and you can see that nice little move
since that point for example it's moved
up
99.9% so I would hold off on PayPal
actually at this particular moment
because it's a little bit overextended
it could of course continue its move up
but I think we may get another
opportunity in the near future where
price comes back down to equili ium
levels and then it makes more sense to
enter all right how about Cisco same
situation here right this one looks good
in the daily time frame you can see that
the entry point made more sense back
here it's moved up quite a bit since
that point it's moved up about 6% for
Cisco here's the weekly chart we just
got above it this week the cloud that's
very that's very bullish for Cisco by
the way Cisco is uh who's um whose pick
was
that I forget
um I think I had it written no yeah that
was uh Jim lethals okay so Jimmy boy
farmer Jim he likes Cisco I like it
right now too it looks pretty good but
you know again you have to watch it very
closely maybe if you're holding on to
this start moving your stop up that's
what you know you may have heard Josh
talking about that moving your stop up
basically as price starts to move up you
want to also move your stops okay so
that if it gets triggered and drops
unexpectedly at least you walk away with
some profits very
important all
right so here's Cisco I like it
iyr this is the real estate ETF has been
doing great here's the weekly chart very
strong uptrend adx look at it moving up
still very strongly right and then on
the daily time frame I like what I'm
seeing overall it was just a
0.3% CFG is the citizens Financial by
the way that was Shannon's pick okay um
and I I think yeah actually did write
that down Channon pick right there she
actually talked about this back on
September 17th as well she recommended
it um all right CFG citizens Financial
that was Bryant's pick all right so this
particular stock now it is it does
happen to be above the cloud and that's
good however in the daily chart you'll
notice that the price has today got
under tankenson and keinon so you want
to hold off on this one we may get a
little bounce soon though so watch it
um how about the weekly
chart creating a symmetrical triangle
all right so ideally you want to wait to
get above this trend line as well
because right now what you're
experiencing here is a lower high here
than this prior High okay and now we've
got a third lower high here so it's kind
of stair stepping down a little bit um
we do have a higher low here than this
one though so that is good so that's why
that's what creates a symmetrical
triangle and what that means is it's
getting s squeezed Tighter and Tighter
right it may come back down here may
come back you know what I mean and then
finally when it finally bursts whether
it's to the upside or to the downside
it's going to be a very more than likely
explosive break and so you want to watch
out for
that all right let's take a look at the
indices
now the Spy S&P 500 here's a week well
I'm not going to do the weeklys on these
because I do those in the weekends and
because if you're looking look at a
weekly candle recognize during the week
right Monday through Thursday and okay
recognize that it's in the in the
process of being formed so this candle
here has not basically formed to its
full fruition it's kind of like in the
process it's a dynamic candle so you got
to wait it out a little bit until Friday
to know where we are for sure but so far
it looks pretty good the um S&P 500 is
very strong it's broken through this
level 6 516 like I said before I
expected it to bounce if it got down
here it did 3 days now we're up we're at
29% should continue moving up in my
opinion Q's look pretty good but they're
stalling at this resistance level still
which is a little bit concerning here
actually let me make sure that's true
48454 yeah that's the level right there
that it has to get through so we're at
48537 based on that prior High I'd hold
off on the q's actually all right if you
happen to be holding it this is a good
place to take some profits all right
wait for a close one more day to break
above and close Above This level you
want a body above there not just a
little piercing like this and then then
you can like hold it into the next level
of 503 52 which is the next level of
resistance and take some more profits up
here all right Dia is the Dow Jones
Industrial ETF this is still moving
beautifully right we got our little
bounce here at
4619 and it's continuing its move up 0
24% Russell 2000 you know it's just been
declining for 4 days but it's also above
the cloud it's above the moving averages
um I it did break and created a new
higher high here we have a higher low
there so it is stair stepping up but for
whatever reason it's just stalling here
it's more than likely to pop I think
tomorrow all right but who knows nobody
can predict the market but it does look
like it's stalling here volume is
declining as price is declining so
that's good we want to see volume
stalling as price declines that means
that the buyers might start to come back
in all right
RSP is uh bouncing again off of this
little green candle I mentioned that
yesterday new highs uh we had those back
here on September 19th or September 16th
well now it's you know we had it on
September 19th I I should just get rid
of that little thing but basically we're
experiencing new highs in the equal
weight ETF so that's good igr is moving
up still that's a small cap 600 similar
to the Russell 2000 okay the small caps
are kind of just stalling here but I
think we we should get a little bounce
up soon SPD High dividend portfolio ETF
is looking really good bouncing off that
49.97 no reason to be alarmed here of
anything negative happening quite yet it
hasn't happened if it hasn't happened
you hold on hold your horses right and
then wait for that breakdown instead of
uh jumping the gun uh iwr midcap
index all right bounced off the 8691 is
continuing to move up up
0.17% you can see here that the adx is
still moving up that's what we want to
see volume declined a little bit but you
know it's just not a lot of movement
that's all the large caps are doing
really well all right they're also
bouncing off this
6647 it's a broad um group of different
types of stocks from small cap to midcap
to large cap this is a really good
bullish Run Okay overall okay it's just
everything seems to be moving
beautifully because all of these ETFs
are now flagged and they're not always
flagged as you guys know so as and when
they are flagged that means that I'm
okay with holding positions in any of
these really okay like I I'm bullish on
all of them basically spq is the high
quality portfolio for the S&P 500 that
dropped a little bit just 0.13% but it's
holding up above support so that's fine
the vix dropped a little bit more down
2.52 so remember I mentioned how we want
that to be continue to drop that's the
volatility in the market so we want to
see that continue to drop and it is all
right now we're going to look at the
sectors okay
okay well you can see already that a lot
of these are flagged right so which ones
are not flagged TLT XLE XLV and uup
everything else is looking pretty good
we've got some new entrance into the
group here which one copx look at this
guys finally you know we've been I've
been you know waiting for this breakout
above
4464 and 4334 started first with a
breakout of 4
4334 okay got above that level and then
today a huge gap up
7.12% for copper minor ETF you can see
that the positive di is above the
negative di adx is moving up we got a
nice big high volume bar I expect this
to continue moving up I am concerned
that we're this far away from
equilibrium though so you have to be
very careful and move your stops up
folks if you're if you happen to got in
there but at any point you want to start
moving your stops up as if it continues
moving up make sure to protect
yourselves silver also broke up today
did a really nice jump as you can see
right there look at the percentages here
up 5% for silver but stalled at this
2956 level based on these prior highs so
you know you may want to take some
profits here that's my recommendation
with silver uh and wait for it to break
through that before for considering a
new long position SMH semiconductors
finally broke above the cloud back on
September 16th Anastasia one of the
other people on CNBC recommended SMH
good call for
Anastasia uh it's now broken above the
cloud we now have more confirmation that
we can it's okay to start thinking about
you know adding this ETF to your
portfolio you can see this is also
looking pretty positive down below the
only thing that's not positive quite yet
with this is there's a few things okay
let me just say that we don't have all
of the ichimoku elements giving us
confirmation on SMH yet so that's
exactly why I would if you're going you
know in my opinion if I was going to be
entering a position in SMH I wouldn't go
in with my full position let's assume
that I typically um buy 2% of any ETF or
stock in my portfolio and I only put 2%
of my portfolio in one ETF okay one
specific ETF hypothetically in this case
I would only put 1% 50% of that amount
because here's why we got a a cloud here
that's bearish and we have Chu span the
white line is still under priced you see
that right there if I zoom in you can
see a little more so it's still under so
we don't have 100% confirmation but
we're in the beginning stages here folks
I like it here's the weekly chart it
also got above keinen today but again
remember this is dynamic we'll know on
Friday for sure on this one
xlb today popped above this what was
this this was a bearish fractal I call
it a bearish fractal has the highest
high in the middle with two bars on
either side showing lower
highs that high was lower than that high
that high right there was lower than
that high now it did not lead to a
decline which is great in fact the very
next day here we had a bullish candle we
had so that almost created like a
bullish harami type situation uh if
you're unfamiliar with bullish harami
let me show you that real
quick let me zoom
in
okay let's go over here under double
candle
patterns this is a bullish harami a
negative candle with a small bullish
candle that follows
it that's what we have right there and
then it led to this nice little Gap up
it got above the high here remember I
had drawn that line yesterday I said we
need to get above that line for
confirmation that this thing is over
it's now cancelled this is no longer in
effect okay so I wouldn't be too
concerned about it at this point but I
did want to educate you guys about
fractals because that's an important
thing you can see another fractal here
that was negative here's a high here on
this candle and this C this High's uh
candle is lower than that one and the
the subsequent candle was also lower
than that high that created okay that
created a fract a bearish
fractal and that led to the drop it
doesn't always materialize but it
sometimes it does all right here's
another one right here okay let me just
draw that one too here's the low here's
the okay boom dropped some more
here's another
one it always kind of starts off that
way and then a bullish one all right
would be something like this the low
this low here in the middle is the
lowest and you got that sort of thing
situation going on like a V type
scenario here's another
one okay making sense guys here's
another
one and another one I mean they just
that's how it all has to start it has to
start somewhere and usually it's with
these either bearish fractals or bullish
ones on the bottom of a move after a
move down when you see it happening on
the lows that can lead to a nice move
up all right let's continue gold look at
gold wow I love it up 1.39% moving up
adx is stol moving up looks great ibit
Bitcoin this is what I was talking about
everything seems to be moving you know
after the FED came out last week and and
uh drop that percentage down by half a
percent
right I mean look at this um Bitcoin is
also doing good it broke through the
3644 level to
3664 so it's looking bullish as well
that's the daily and here's the
weekly here's Industrials in the weekly
and here it is in the daily looking good
we had a bearish fractal right there
that was canceled today okay do you see
that those three candles right there so
that and it created this bullish fractal
and then that L to the nice move up all
right xlk looking good may find some
resistance here at
[Music]
22737 guys it's really important to that
you get that you guys you know if you're
trading stocks that you also incorporate
technicals with the
fundamentals and fundamentals of course
are when you're looking at I'll just
give you a quick um we'll come back to
technology here in a second but here's
Google the fundamentals are the profit
margins you know the operating cash
flows you know you look at the the beta
the price of sales price earnings growth
sales growth all these things and and so
what you want is a um a full picture of
both the fundamentals telling you the
story that this is a good stock to own
but also the technicals and if you don't
have one of the two confirming okay then
you just stay out of it and just invest
in the the ones that are strongest it
just makes sense
all right technology looking good up 68%
today on The Daily this is the
weekly and consum discretionary looking
great up
89% very bullish adx is still moving up
getting a little far away though from
equilibrium xlc I get I get nervous when
I see it moving that far away I know
that it's going to eventually come back
so you want to move your stops up okay
xlc is kind of stalling here a little
bit but we got a bull candle I think
it's going to continue that's
communication Services tip looking great
right here right treasury inflation
protection staying above that tenens in
this whole time here up 0
24% real estate it's under the tenens
in very flat this xlre ETF so you just
wait a little longer until we get some
confirmations to get in B same situation
it was only up 05 Consumer Staples was
is inside equilibrium you hold off on
that one xhb home builders looks okay I
mean it was down 0.12 but it's holding
up above support utilities uh creating a
a shooting star candle it's a negative
candle all right so that one looks like
this right here this long Wick and small
body so that's a negative bearish single
candle pattern you you you don't want to
be entering a long position when you see
something like this all right if if you
guys um like the uh that little spread
thing this this Candlestick cheat sheet
that I use here if you like that you can
get it on my um X and Twitter account
and um let me show you that okay so this
is the xpage Twitter account at
bluecloud Trader when you once you're
there you want to scroll down scroll
down you'll find it right here Pinn to
the very top you can download it and if
you don't mind just following me that's
all I ask in return I do Post other
things in here including videos but also
charts uh occasionally so you may want
to check that out all right anyway let's
get back to the charts and we were
looking at xlu and that's the that
shooting star type it almost looks like
a gravestone that's also a negative
candle right there a gravestone pattern
looks something
like this you see that right there so
similar to the shooting shooting star or
um but also has a long Wick and a flat
body and it's kind of flat I would say
for the most part
utilities overall though look at this
nice run it's still moving up it was
down 71% today here's the weekly chart
all right not a big change when you look
at the overall picture here um let's
continue with financials XLF now on the
daily chart this one dropped
88% but found support it found support
right on the ten kinson the midpoint of
the last nine periods the red line is
the midpoint of the last 26 periods okay
so it's a little slower we always also
want to see the green line above the red
generally speaking you want
that uh
TLT 20-year Treasury under the tenson
and keinon here for about 3 days now but
we have a bullish candle so there's a
good chance that we may get a bounce
here we are still above the prior low
and that's important right there you see
that low right there so I'm not too
concerned about that but um just let
just letting you guys know that this is
not a proper entry place for it energy
what did I say about this one you know
it's been weak and it still is weak
keeps finding that resistance of the
cloud top of the cloud there you could
see it multiple times here and here and
over here and finally right here today
on Tuesday September 24th it came to it
it opened right there at the at the very
top of the cloud and dropped back under
on higher volume not good so this is the
lagard I'd stay out of En energy for the
time being it will have its day in the
future but right now it's experiencing
lower highs and lower lows as you can
see here this low is lower than the
prior one all right this high is lower
than the prior high so it's declining
folks that's what they call a downtrend
and so you essentially don't want to be
involved in that because you don't know
when it's going to stop really and when
people tell you oh I want to buy it
cheaper okay but how do you know what
when that point is you know is going to
stop and it's not going to continue
declining the stock can drop for longer
than you can expect it can also move up
for longer than you can expect as the
markets are right now which side do you
want to be on you
know Healthcare XLV down 0.20% it's
under the moving averages we also have a
negative crossover here for Healthcare
on The Daily that's a little concerning
but we are holding up above this support
level that's what we need to hold up
above if we break under that level okay
that's that's going to be extremely
concerning I'll be watching it and I'll
inform you about that US dollar uup is
still declining here's a perfect example
it you know it's gotten cheap came up a
little bit showed a little bit of
strength boom dropped and so now it's
continuing to drop the adx when it's
moving up like this on the directional
movement index adx 9 when it's moving up
and the negative D line is above the
positive
D9 that's very bearish and it's telling
us that stay out look how long the red
Line's been above the green line for the
US Dollar on The Daily and here's the
weekly chart you can see it's under the
cloud there too right so stay out of the
you know the US dollar for now it's not
a strong place to be basically people
are pushing their money they're putting
the money back in the markets okay money
market accounts are going to start to
decline those interest rates when they
start declining people are going to get
itchy for in investing in higher um
areas like areas that can provide them
with a higher income and basically the
stock market is the place probably that
a lot of them are going to put their
money back into um you know what's his
name Tom Lee always talks about how the
trillions of dollars or whatever that
are on the sidelines right just waiting
to come back into this Market it seems
to be happening here there's a cash
inflow obviously that's taking place and
it's going into a lot of different
places is a lot of different sectors and
ETFs as you can see there and stocks now
Google on the uh unfortunately has is in
a decline right now all right it did
break this trend line but as you can
see this prior high was not has not been
taken out we have a lower high here I'm
sorry lower low here than this prior low
so you know and we're under the cloud
there's a lot of resistance above here
so you don't enter basically that's my
My Philosophy that's I trade based on
this indicator it's it it does a good
job at keeping you out of trouble when
price gets under these moving averages
you could have saved yourself this big
decline I mean from that point right
there if we measure it it dropped
approximately 20.67% that's we're
talking about Google one of the
strongest companies out there 20.67% in
two months now you can see that when I
that little box that populates right
here check that out all right right
holding this down drop it down to this
level right there 20.67%
[Music]
which is more important than my opinion
actually apple is um also finding
resistance here that 23261 level see
that prior High looks more bullish
because on the daily chart you can see
it is in fact above the moving averages
in the cloud right but it's stalling
here at these levels we got to break
through it just like we did with um with
copper remember these resistance levels
boom this is what we want to see then I
change my Outlook then I start thinking
more positively about it but until it's
proven we we just wait we sit on our
hands and we just hold off and you know
time flies you know just keeps going by
while um and we start thinking about
investing in other options now by the
way in the members only one thing I
forgot to mention also is in addition to
sharing these videos here uh in the for
blue cloud Legend level
members I also every day Post in the
Community tab here okay um a list of
stocks that pop up in my proprietary
scanner what does that scanner look for
it looks for stocks that are POS that
look have bullish outlooks based on the
ichoku indicator on both the weekly and
daily so if Apple would look good on
both the weekly and daily and in fact I
have some you know specific criteria
that I'm looking for where I'm looking
for price that is pulled back back and
is popping popups okay and that's what
we're looking for and that's what I
share with the members that's why it's
you know you're going to get some great
ideas even if you're not investing
specifically in the stocks uh or you
know following every single stock that I
hold because I do hold a lot of
positions I've got almost you know a
little bit over 30 um positions right
now in my portfolio
but there's new ones coming up every
single day and I share those in with
blue cloud Legend members and I share
them once a week with blue cloud Trader
level members all right guys I'm going
to leave you with that I hope you're all
doing great having a good day in the
markets you are uh succeeding in the
markets and and doing well with trading
and uh I will catch you all in the next
video don't forget to like And subscribe
thanks
[Music]
w
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