劇的な金利高。6月利下げはないかも(4月1日 #PAN米国株)

Summary

The video discusses a partnership with Mumo Securities, which now supports trading in Japanese stocks with a campaign offering a maximum of 100,000 yen in popular stocks. It provides two months of free trading fees for US stocks and free trading fees for Japanese stocks. The video also covers various financial indicators, market trends, and economic data, such as the unexpected rise in the ISM Manufacturing Index and its potential impact on Federal Reserve policy. It analyzes specific stocks, sectors, and investment strategies, including the performance of tech giants like Google and Apple, and touches on cryptocurrency trends, with Bitcoin's price movements. The summary also hints at potential market volatility due to economic indicators and Federal Reserve decisions.

Takeaways

• 📈 Mumo Securities has partnered with the video channel and now supports trading in Japanese stocks, offering a campaign where popular stocks up to 100,000 yen are not missed.
• 💼 For the first two months, trading fees for U.S. stocks are free, and Japanese stock trading fees are also waived, showcasing Mumo Securities' competitive pricing structure.
• 📊 Mumo Securities provides various analytical functions that can be used for trading both NISA and U.S. stocks, emphasizing the safety and free nature of the trading fees.
• 📉 The speaker discusses market indicators and economic data, noting that the personal consumption expenditure figures were as expected, slightly lower than predicted, which influenced the market's direction.
• 📈 The ISM Manufacturing Index exceeded expectations, rising above 50 for the first time since November 2022, which is considered a positive sign for the economy.
• 📊 The speaker suggests that the Federal Reserve may be satisfied with the economic indicators, hinting at a potential pause in interest rate cuts.
• 📉 The market reaction to the strong economic data included a rise in interest rates and a significant movement in the expected number of interest rate cuts.
• 📊 The speaker mentions various stock performances, including those of Google, Meta, and Broadcom, indicating a mixed market response to economic data.
• 🚀 There is a discussion on the performance of different sectors, with communication services and energy sectors showing movement, and real estate experiencing a decline.
• 📚 The speaker recommends a book for new investors, detailing various investment options and suggesting portfolio strategies based on age.
• 🤔 The script ends with a contemplation of the market's future direction, considering the impact of strong economic indicators and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy.

Q & A

What is the promotion campaign that Mumu Securities is running for popular stocks?

Mumu Securities is running a campaign where you can win up to 100,000 yen in popular stocks without missing out.

What is the special offer for trading fees on Japanese and U.S. stocks with Mumu Securities for a limited time?

For a limited time, Mumu Securities is offering two months of free trading fees for Japanese stocks and two months of free trading fees for U.S. stocks.

What are the analysis tools available on Mumu Securities' platform?

Mumu Securities offers various analysis tools on their platform, which can be used for trading Japanese and U.S. stocks.

How does Mumu Securities' trading fee for U.S. stocks compare to major online brokerages?

Mumu Securities' trading fee for U.S. stocks is approximately one-sixth of that charged by major online brokerages, making it a very competitive rate.

What economic indicator was discussed in the video related to personal consumption expenditure?

The video discussed the personal consumption expenditure index, which was in line with expectations and slightly lower than the predicted 0.4% increase at 0.3%.

What was the significance of the Core PCE price index figures mentioned in the video?

The Core PCE price index for the previous month was 0.3%, which was lower than the expected 0.3% and down from the previous month's 0.5%, indicating a decrease in inflationary pressure.

What does the ISM Manufacturing Index indicate about the economy?

The ISM Manufacturing Index is significant as a reading above 50 indicates a growing economy, while below 50 suggests a recession. The index rose above 50 in the video's discussion, indicating a positive economic outlook.

How did the market react to the Federal Reserve's (FRB) recent statements on interest rates?

The market has been adjusting its expectations for interest rate cuts based on the FRB's statements. After a statement suggesting no rush to cut rates, the market saw significant movements in the pricing of rate cuts and a substantial rise in interest rates.

What sectors reported expansion and contraction in March according to the video?

In March, sectors such as textiles, non-ferrous metals, paper products, and petroleum reported expansion. Meanwhile, six industries including furniture, plastics and rubber products, and electrical products reported contraction.

What was the impact of the increase in the inventory index on the market?

The video mentioned that the inventory index shrank in March, which could indicate a potential for stronger numbers in the following month, suggesting a possible positive impact on the market.

What is the current status of the NASDAQ and S&P 500 indices as discussed in the video?

The NASDAQ has been in a state of consolidation for over a week, with the RSI indicating a potential buying opportunity. The S&P 500 has been stronger than the NASDAQ, with better performance in the first quarter.

How did the Russell 2000 index perform in the market conditions described in the video?

The Russell 2000 index, which represents small-cap stocks, has been moving within a channel and is currently near the lower end of that channel, suggesting a potential buying point if it dips further.

What was the impact of the strong economic indicators on the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's actions?

Strong economic indicators have led investors to fear that the Federal Reserve might change its dovish stance, possibly leading to fewer interest rate cuts or even a pause in rate cuts, causing market uncertainty.

What is the significance of the upcoming Powell's speech mentioned in the video?

Powell's upcoming speech is considered very important as it may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and potentially impact market expectations and movements.

How did FedEx's stock price react to the news about their contract with the U.S. Postal Service expiring?

FedEx's stock price fell significantly by 3.33% following the news that their contract with the U.S. Postal Service would expire in September.

What is the current situation with Bitcoin as discussed in the video?

Bitcoin's price has dropped below $70,000, and the video suggests that while there is strong selling pressure, there may also be potential for buyers to enter the market.

What are the implications of the VIX index being low as mentioned in the video?

A low VIX index indicates that the stock market is experiencing low volatility and stable conditions, which is currently at 13.6.

What advice does the video provide for new investors regarding portfolio construction?

The video recommends a book for new investors that provides detailed introductions to various investment vehicles and suggests portfolios based on different age groups, which can help in constructing a diversified portfolio.

What is Mumu Securities' stance on the potential for a market downturn?

While Mumu Securities acknowledges that the market may experience fluctuations, they believe that a significant market downturn is unlikely unless there is a shock caused by a rapid economic collapse due to high interest rates.

What is the current status of the U.S. Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate as discussed in the video?

The U.S. Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate has not seen significant movements and is currently stable around 105.16, suggesting a lack of market reaction or potential intervention fears.

What is the outlook for gold prices as discussed in the video?

Gold prices have been unusually high despite the strong U.S. Dollar and high U.S. interest rates, which is typically a bearish signal for gold. The video suggests that gold prices could continue to rise if central banks maintain financial easing policies or if geopolitical tensions increase.