Mark Moss: Get Ready for an Inflationary Crash in Markets - Bitcoin, Real Estate, Stocks

Summary

In this episode of Coin Stories, Natalie Brunell interviews Mark Moss, discussing the macro outlook on Bitcoin and the financial markets. Moss emphasizes the importance of looking at the big picture, predicting that despite current market slumps, a rate cut is imminent, leading to a global easing cycle that will boost equity markets. He also touches on Bitcoin's correlation with liquidity, suggesting it's on track to rise significantly as global liquidity increases. The conversation covers the impact of the U.S. presidential election on Bitcoin, with Moss suggesting a Trump win could be a catalyst for Bitcoin's integration into strategic reserves, potentially sending its value soaring.

Takeaways

• 🔍 Mark Moss emphasizes the importance of taking a macro perspective on investments, advising against focusing too closely on daily market fluctuations.
• 📉 Moss explains that the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle, which began in November 2021, was anticipated to eventually shift back to an easing cycle, which is now occurring.
• 🌐 He discusses the coordinated actions of major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, ECB, BOJ, and PBOC, and their impact on global liquidity and markets.
• 📈 Moss points out that despite the market volatility, Bitcoin has shown significant gains over the past year, outperforming traditional markets like the S&P 500.
• 💡 He suggests that Bitcoin's price movements are closely tied to global liquidity, and as liquidity increases, so should Bitcoin's value, with historical cycles indicating a six-month lag.
• 🏛 Moss speculates on the potential impact of the US presidential election on Bitcoin, with different administrations having varying levels of support for cryptocurrencies.
• 📊 The conversation touches on the concept of 'crash up' versus 'crash down', with Moss predicting a possible inflationary crash where asset prices rise rapidly, affecting the standard of living.
• 🏦 Moss highlights the influence of financial institutions and lobby groups on policy-making regarding Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
• 🌐 He anticipates that Bitcoin will continue to gain mainstream adoption and will integrate into various aspects of finance and technology, potentially becoming a standard feature rather than a niche investment.
• 💭 Moss leaves the audience with a long-term perspective on Bitcoin investment, advocating for holding Bitcoin as an asset and focusing on the 'zoom out' thesis for wealth building.

Q & A

What does Mark Moss suggest people do when they're too focused on short-term market fluctuations?

Mark Moss suggests that people should 'zoom out' and not get caught up in daily, weekly, or even monthly fluctuations as it can drive them crazy. He emphasizes the importance of looking at the bigger picture and long-term trends rather than getting overwhelmed by short-term market noise.

What is the significance of the Federal Reserve's actions on the economy according to Mark Moss?

Mark Moss explains that the Federal Reserve's actions, particularly its tightening and easing cycles, have significant impacts on the economy. He mentions that the Fed's decision to tighten since November 2021 was expected to eventually lead to a lowering of rates, which is a part of a debt-based monetary system's need to expand over time.

How does Mark Moss view the current unemployment and inflation trends in relation to economic policy?

Mark Moss observes that unemployment has started to tick up and inflation has begun to cool down, signaling a shift towards easing policies. He believes these trends are part of a coordinated global response, with central banks around the world preparing to ease in unison, which he anticipates will lead to a resurgence in global equity markets.

What is Mark Moss's perspective on Bitcoin's price not reaching six figures yet?

Mark Moss is not surprised that Bitcoin has not reached six figures yet, as he believes the current price reflects the actual data and global liquidity trends. He points out that Bitcoin's price is influenced by global liquidity, which did not increase as quickly as he initially expected, leading to the current price levels.

How does Mark Moss analyze the correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity?

Mark Moss analyzes the correlation by looking at historical cycles and data. He notes that Bitcoin's price has a high sensitivity to liquidity changes, with an approximate 8.95 times multiplier effect compared to a 10% increase in liquidity. This means that Bitcoin's price moves more dramatically in response to changes in the monetary base than other assets.

What does Mark Moss predict regarding the upcoming U.S. presidential election's impact on Bitcoin?

Mark Moss predicts that if Trump wins the election, there is a high likelihood that he will follow through on his stated plans to put Bitcoin on strategic reserves, which could lead to a significant increase in Bitcoin's price. Conversely, if Biden wins, he anticipates a more conservative price projection for Bitcoin, due to the current administration's less favorable stance towards cryptocurrencies.

What is Mark Moss's outlook on the potential for a market crash?

Mark Moss does not predict a traditional market crash. Instead, he foresees a potential 'reverse crash' or inflationary crash, where asset prices increase so rapidly that the standard of living decreases for many people, despite the nominal prices not dropping.

How does Mark Moss view the future of Bitcoin in the context of government control and surveillance?

Mark Moss believes that Bitcoin is too entrenched in the global financial system to be effectively controlled or stopped by governments. He suggests that while there may be regional variations in regulation, the decentralized nature of Bitcoin will ensure its continued use, especially in areas where it offers unique capabilities that traditional currencies cannot match.

What advice does Mark Moss give to those interested in Bitcoin as an investment?

Mark Moss advises to 'zoom out' and focus on the long-term trends rather than short-term price fluctuations. He suggests viewing Bitcoin as a long-term asset to hold rather than something to be traded frequently. He also promotes the idea of earning in fiat currency and consistently investing in assets like Bitcoin for the long term.

How does Mark Moss think the role of Bitcoin will evolve in the next 5 to 10 years?

Mark Moss envisions Bitcoin integrating into the financial system to the point where it becomes a normal part of society, rather than a separate asset class. He anticipates that Bitcoin will be used for transactions where it has unique advantages, such as micropayments and in regions with heavy government censorship, while traditional currencies will continue to be used for everyday transactions due to network effects and tax implications.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Macro Outlook and Market Slump

Mark Moss discusses the importance of taking a macroeconomic perspective when analyzing market trends, emphasizing the need to avoid focusing too closely on daily or even monthly fluctuations. He suggests that the market is following a predictable pattern as central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve, are transitioning from a tightening cycle to an easing cycle. Moss points out that despite unemployment rising and inflation cooling, the financial system, being debt-based, is designed to expand, which is evident in the central banks' actions. He also notes that other central banks have already begun easing monetary policy, and with the Federal Reserve signaling a rate cut, a global easing cycle is anticipated, which could boost equity markets. Moss also addresses the underperformance of Bitcoin compared to other assets and suggests that its current value is appropriate given the global liquidity situation.

05:01

💹 Global Liquidity and Bitcoin Correlation

The conversation shifts to the correlation between global liquidity and Bitcoin's price movements. Moss explains that while liquidity has not increased as rapidly as expected, it has started to rise again after a period of decline. He draws a parallel between the choppiness in Bitcoin's price and the broader global equity market, suggesting that Bitcoin often follows a six-month lag behind liquidity trends. Moss also discusses the role of major central banks in driving liquidity and how their policies can influence Bitcoin's price. Additionally, he touches on the potential impact of the US election on Bitcoin, with different presidential candidates holding varying stances on cryptocurrency, which could either accelerate or hinder its adoption and price trajectory.

10:02

🏦 Central Banks and Monetary Policy

Mark Moss delves deeper into the role of central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, and their influence on global financial markets. He outlines the expectation that central banks will continue to ease monetary policy in unison, which is likely to boost equity markets. Moss also discusses the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs if the Federal Reserve and other central banks proceed with rate cuts and increase liquidity. He contrasts this with the possibility of a more conservative price trajectory for Bitcoin should the election results lead to a less crypto-friendly administration. Moss also addresses the concept of 'sound money' and how Bitcoin fits into the broader financial landscape, suggesting that despite regulatory challenges, Bitcoin's role as a store of value and medium of exchange is likely to endure.

15:03

📈 Bitcoin's Future and Market Cycles

The discussion turns to the future of Bitcoin and how market cycles influence its adoption and price. Moss reflects on past bull runs and the current state of the market, suggesting that while there may be periods of decline or stagnation, Bitcoin has historically recovered and reached new heights. He considers the impact of increased mainstream adoption and how it could lead to Bitcoin becoming a more integrated part of the financial system, rather than a speculative asset. Moss also contemplates the potential for future market cycles to differ from past experiences, as Bitcoin matures and becomes more established.

20:04

🌐 Global Perspectives on Bitcoin

Mark Moss explores the global implications of Bitcoin's growth and adoption, considering how different countries and regions might respond to its increasing popularity. He discusses the potential for Bitcoin to become a more significant part of the financial system, particularly in countries with less stable currencies or more restrictive governments. Moss also considers the role of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and the possibility that it could become a more widely accepted store of value, even as regulatory environments evolve.

25:05

💼 Bitcoin and the Game of Money

In the final part of the discussion, Moss focuses on the strategic approach to investing in Bitcoin, framing it as a long-term 'game of money' where the goal is to accumulate and hold assets that appreciate over time. He advocates for a mindset of earning in fiat currency and converting it into appreciating assets like Bitcoin, which should be held indefinitely rather than sold for fiat. Moss suggests that this approach can help investors maintain a more strategic and less emotionally reactive relationship with market fluctuations.

Keywords

💡Macro Outlook

Macro Outlook refers to a broad perspective on economic indicators and trends that affect the overall economy. In the video, Mark Moss discusses the macro outlook in relation to the financial markets, including the behavior of the Federal Reserve and other central banks, and how their decisions impact investment strategies. The concept is central to understanding the video's theme of navigating financial markets and making informed decisions.

💡Zooming Out

Zooming out is a metaphor for taking a wider, less focused view of a situation to better understand the overall context. Mark Moss emphasizes the importance of zooming out when analyzing financial markets to avoid being overwhelmed by short-term fluctuations and daily news. This approach is crucial for maintaining a long-term investment perspective, as it allows investors to make more strategic decisions based on broader economic trends rather than immediate market noise.

💡Tightening Cycle

A tightening cycle is a phase in monetary policy where a central bank raises interest rates to curb inflation and control the money supply. In the script, Moss talks about the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle that began in November 2021 and its impact on the financial markets. Understanding this cycle is key to the video's discussion on how central bank policies can create market volatility and affect investment strategies.

💡Debt-Based Monetary System

A debt-based monetary system is an economic model where money is created as a debt obligation, typically by banks when they issue loans. Moss explains that this system necessitates constant expansion, as it relies on the continuous creation of new debt. This concept is integral to the video's narrative, as it underpins the discussion on why central banks must periodically lower interest rates and the implications this has for asset prices, including Bitcoin.

💡Liquidity

Liquidity in finance refers to the ease with which an asset can be converted into cash without affecting its price. Moss discusses global liquidity and its correlation with asset prices, particularly Bitcoin. The script emphasizes that an increase in liquidity leads to higher asset prices, which is a central theme in the video's exploration of market dynamics and investment opportunities.

💡Volatility

Volatility in finance measures the degree of variation in the price of an asset over time. In the video, the concept of volatility is used to describe the fluctuating nature of financial markets, especially during periods of economic uncertainty or significant events like elections. Understanding volatility is essential for investors, as it informs risk management strategies and the decision to hold or sell assets.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general price level of goods and services in an economy is increasing over time. In the script, Moss discusses inflation in the context of its impact on currency value and investment strategies. The video suggests that inflation can drive investors to seek assets like Bitcoin as a hedge against the贬值 of traditional currencies.

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that operates on a peer-to-peer network without the need for a central authority. Throughout the video, Moss frequently references Bitcoin as an asset class that is influenced by global liquidity and macroeconomic trends. The discussions revolve around Bitcoin's potential to appreciate in value and serve as a store of value, especially in response to monetary policies and economic conditions.

💡Election Cycle

An election cycle refers to the periodic occurrence of elections, which can influence economic policies and market sentiment. In the video, Moss touches on the potential impact of the upcoming election on financial markets and Bitcoin. Understanding the election cycle is important as it can signal shifts in regulatory environments and government spending, which are relevant to the video's overall theme of macroeconomic analysis.

💡Game Theory

Game theory is a study of mathematical models of strategic interaction among rational decision-makers. In the context of the video, Moss applies game theory to the adoption of Bitcoin by nations, suggesting that if a major economy like the United States were to adopt Bitcoin as part of its monetary policy, it could trigger a competitive response from other nations. This concept is used to illustrate the potential for Bitcoin to gain widespread acceptance and influence global financial systems.

💡Gresham's Law

Gresham's Law states that 'bad money drives out good' when two forms of money are in circulation, and the less valuable money is used for transactions while the more valuable money is hoarded. Moss discusses the reverse of Gresham's Law in relation to Bitcoin, suggesting that as the value of Bitcoin increases relative to fiat currencies, it may be hoarded rather than spent, reflecting on the future role of Bitcoin as a store of value versus a medium of exchange.

Highlights

Mark Moss emphasizes the importance of taking a macro perspective on financial markets rather than focusing on daily or weekly fluctuations.

Since the Fed announced tightening in November 2021, the market anticipated a future shift towards easing and rate cuts.

Global liquidity, driven by major central banks, is a significant factor influencing Bitcoin's price.

Unemployment rates and inflation trends are used as indicators for central banks' policy decisions.

Bitcoin has not reached six figures yet, aligning with global liquidity patterns and macroeconomic trends.

Over the last year, Bitcoin has seen a 130% increase, outperforming traditional markets like the S&P 500.

Global liquidity has been fluctuating, affecting Bitcoin's stability and growth.

The potential for coordinated global easing by major central banks could positively impact markets and Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's sensitivity to liquidity is significantly higher compared to traditional assets like gold.

Mark Moss discusses the potential impact of the US presidential election on Bitcoin's future.

A potential Biden administration could maintain aggressive stances against cryptocurrencies.

In contrast, Trump and RFK have shown a more pro-Bitcoin stance, which could influence global Bitcoin adoption.

Game theory suggests that if the US adopts Bitcoin more widely, other nations may follow suit.

Mark Moss predicts that Bitcoin could reach $400,000 if Trump wins the election and follows through on pro-Bitcoin policies.

Inflationary crash risks are a concern, where rapid price increases could reduce living standards.

Real estate prices are expected to continue rising with inflation, differing from past market crashes.

Bitcoin's role in the future may shift from a speculative asset to a more integrated part of the financial system.

Mark Moss suggests holding Bitcoin as a long-term strategy rather than focusing on short-term price fluctuations.

Transcripts

[Music]

hey everyone back in the hot seat is the

one and only Mark Moss Mark thanks for

joining me it's been a while so I'm

excited to catch up with you yeah it's

been so so long now since I've been on

the show so thanks for having me and I

always love talking to you like I said

we have a lot to talk about but uh yeah

let's let's get into this all right well

there's a lot to cover a lot happening

we seem to be in a little bit of a

September slump they're about to cut

rates so I just want to start with maybe

zooming out and getting your macro

Outlook what's happening right now well

I love that you said start by zooming

out because that's exactly what you have

to do uh people will drive themselves

crazy when they're too zoomed in and so

you do have to zoom out if if you're

looking at your portfolio on a daily

weekly even monthly basis you're going

to go crazy when you're looking at every

single piece of news trying to figure

out uh what what what's tradable I think

it'll drive yourself crazy so if we zoom

out I would say things are going right

as planned right as we all think they

would and what what I mean by that is uh

since the FED announced they were going

to start tightening in November of

2021 um people thought they would break

the market um we knew at some point

they're going to have to lower rates if

you understand the financial system as a

debt-based monetary system you

understand it always has to expand now

not always in a perfect straight line so

there are Peaks and valleys but we know

what's going to happen so uh they went

on the tightening cycle zooming into

kind of where we're at right now they

start projecting that they were going to

to uh start lowering rates or regime

shift from a tightening cycle to an

easing cycle and we s we could start to

see it in the data and so we could start

to see beginning of this year um

unemployment started ticking up uh

inflation started cooling down um they

started pivoting towards that all right

now Bitcoin hasn't been moving based off

of this but we know that they were going

to do this Jerome pal has just been

trying to hold this off as long as

possible but the sort of the proverbial

rock in a hard place has been um

tightening on him because we've started

to see the cracks as I said unemployment

Etc uh but also other governments other

central banks around the world so other

central banks have already started

easing but there's really four major

central banks and we'll get into

liquidity because that's the big driver

but when I when I think about it there's

really four major central banks that we

want to pay attention to in the Federal

Reserve obviously uh the ECB the boj and

the pboc and the you know in Europe they

already started easing but Japan and

China have been waiting they're waiting

for the us because it needs to be

somewhat coordinated of course we saw uh

was it about a month ago Japan tried to

move in advance without the without the

fed and uh that wreak disaster for the

markets and so they said okay hang on

we'll wait for the FED we'll wait for

the fed and so now that the FED has

signaled that they're going to shift

we're expecting rate Cuts you know

coming anytime now it's 100% the CME uh

group watch group is 100% chance that

they're going to lower rates the

question is how far um now China and the

pboc I'm sorry the the boj can now start

easing so the whole world will start

easing in unison and we'll see that

Global Equity start taking off again so

this is all working out sort of to plan

um we also know that typically the

summer is is is a bad time for markets

September is historically a bad time for

markets we have a hotly contested uh uh

election cycle coming up as well and so

I think the volatility we've been seeing

is sort of to be expected uh but just as

planned the liquidity Cycles are about

to pick back up and uh I think we'll get

right back on

track are you surprised at all that

Bitcoin hasn't hit six figures yet and

then that when it did reach its new

all-time high that we haven't been able

to really stay in that range we fell

back down to levels that some people

really didn't

expect uh no I'm not I'm not really

surprised and the reason why I'm not

surprised is because I look at the data

now if I would have if you would have

asked me a year ago where I think things

would have been I might have said they

should be at 100,000 but if you

understand why would Bitcoin get to

100,000 what's the driver of that and

then you look at that instead of just

this assumption I had made a year ago I

would say no so if you asked me a year

ago I would have said yes but when I

look at the data behind it I would say

no this is where we should be and and

just to remind everybody here again zoom

out over the last year since September

of 2023 we're up

130% in one year like come on guys like

the S&P 500 is doing 8% like get get out

of your own way here 13% year year what

about two years since September of 2022

we're up 242 per. so again you're going

to drive yourself crazy looking at a

monthly basis uh year-over Year we're

doing amazing no other asset in the

world is doing that but uh so no I'm not

surprised now again what is the driver

of this why does Bitcoin go up and and

there's a lot of factors but a large

piece of that is is This Global

liquidity and so uh I had expected the

liquidity to go up a little bit faster

but it didn't so what we saw is that

Global liquidity which is basically the

amount of money in the system actually

started going down so we saw right now

we're breaking new all-time Highs but it

ended in 2023 at about 171 trillion but

it hit its low in April and it basically

stayed from April all the way till about

July at that low period before it

started turning back up so when you look

at Bitcoin sort of that uh you know the

choppiness that we've had and sort of in

this range bound it's been over the last

six months which is the same period of

time that Global Equity hit that low and

has remained in that range now it's

turning back up and if we look at past

historical Cycles we see that Bitcoin

sort of sits on about a six-month lag so

it needs to gain that energy before that

next um you know next burst takes off

which puts us right into you know early

next year and again right back on track

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pioneering the future today yeah I saw

one of your recent videos and it piqued

my interest because Sam uh Callahan is

actually looking into this data of just

how correlated Bitcoin has been to

liquidity to the supply um M2 money

supply and you showed sort of these

cycles and these waves and it has been

this indicator um a little bit early

once it starts to take up you know that

bitcoin's going to follow what does that

tell us I mean for people whether

they're in investors in Bitcoin already

or thinking about it what should we draw

from the fact that as liquidity goes up

Bitcoin goes up yeah well there's a

couple things to keep in mind so one I

made a video it hasn't been released yet

but talking about the presidential

election cycle and who's going to win

Obama Obama who's gonna win Cala or

basically Obama uh Kamala or Trump right

and U what's gonna happen to the markets

and I haven't released this video yet

but basically I showed that it doesn't

matter if we go back through history and

look from Clinton we look at Obama we or

bush we look at Trump we look at U Etc

every president in the first three years

eight months of every single election

cycle the markets the S&P 500 are up by

about

50% every single president now there's

there's certainly lots of social issues

and lots of other issues but in regards

to markets the first three years and

eight months from January when they take

office to September the first three

years and eight months they're up about

50% so it doesn't really matter why is

that and that's going back to being on a

debt-based monetary syst system that

constantly has to expand and it's the

rising amount of liquidity in the system

now the thing that understand is that if

you look at a lot of people on Twitter

lately have been you know Bitcoin real

estate Bitcoin real estate and there's a

lot of people saying that real estate is

in a bubble and real estate is way

bigger of a bubble today than it was in

2008 well when you look at it in nominal

terms in US dollar terms it looks that

way when you look at it adjusted for

inflation which is CPI it looks that way

but when you adjust it for the rate of

debasement or just the even us M2 you'll

see we're nowhere even close to where we

were in 2008 prices and so you start to

see things differently and so what you

see is when the monetary system expands

true definition of inflation where the

liquidity goes up it's pushing all these

asset prices up because it's not a

bubble in real estate or the S&P 500 or

Bitcoin it's a bubble in the denominator

it's a bubble in the amount of money or

liquidity in the system now the

important thing to understand taking it

back Bitcoin is that different assets so

so the rising Tide Rises all boats so to

speak but different boats move at

different rates so what we see is

there's different assets that have

different sensitivities to the liquidity

so the S&P 500 is sort of like a perfect

proxy in Us Media and real estate as

well they move about at the same rate um

but if we look at Bitcoin it's much more

sensitive so it moves at about an

8.95 times

sensitivity whereas gold moves at about

a 1 4 five times sensitivity which means

for every 10% increase in liquidity gold

would go up by about 14% And Bitcoin

would go up by

90% now if we look at that what does

that tell us where we're now and where

does it tell us about where we're going

well luckily the US government the CBO

projects where that debt will be going

and what we can see is that for the

since 2019 the US monetary base has been

expanding by 10% per year

right and it's scheduled to continue

that I believe it'll accelerate so if

we're going up by 10% a year bitcoin's

going up at about 90% of that which is

why again we're right on track yeah and

this is why the volatility is actually a

feature not a bug all roads lead to the

money printer I agree with you I think

no matter who wins this election they're

just going to have to print um so let me

ask you just a little bit more about the

election because we had the presidential

debate recently I'm always hoping that

someone will bring up Bitcoin it never

happens I had this hope that maybe Trump

would talk about the Strategic Bitcoin

stock pile it didn't happen they

actually didn't even cover the economy

that much and what their plans were or

address the debt um so do you think that

if if the election goes one way or

another it could be more of a headwin

versus Tailwind for Bitcoin especially

because we know how closed off the Biden

Administration has been to this industry

100% um you know when you're looking at

projection and you're looking at numbers

into the future um if the numbers are

too far off it almost seems like the

analysis is sort of worthless but in

this in this regard because we have such

a pivotal moment happening uh we sort of

look at this so what I would say is 100%

so we have Camala you know the Biden

Administration Kamala Administration has

been overly aggressive against Bitcoin

and just cryptocurrency in general from

you know what's happened with Katon

lon's Bank custodia you know the FED

denying Bank Charters um all the way

down to attacking on and off ramp Etc um

as well as just taking an aggressive

stance to it overall including you know

Elizabeth Warren passing all types of

bills that could make it even illegal to

potentially mine Bitcoin or transfer

Bitcoin on a self- custody basis so very

very aggressive on that level um on the

other side we have you know RFK and and

Trump both sort of taking this Pro

Bitcoin stance and now of course they've

come together in that regard and so we

certainly have this very Stark

difference but here's really where it

gets really interesting for me anyway is

that you know when we think about

Bitcoin adoption we think about Game

Theory and so who's going to move first

and in the world of investing or just in

the world period it's a competitive

World business is competitive but in the

world of investing it's competitive and

so if a fund is outperforming me because

they've added gold well I should

probably add gold if a fund outperforms

me because they've added Bitcoin I

should probably add Bitcoin as well but

what about when a nation adds Bitcoin

and so we saw El Salvador do that now El

Salvador is one of the poorest nations

in the world so they're not a big

influencer the world however they've

done so well with it that now president

buk has been meeting with other leaders

of other nations small Nations UAE Omar

things like that and we've seen them now

starting to take a pro pro Bitcoin uh

policy starting to mine Bitcoin Etc but

what happens if the United States with

the dollar Reserve System what happens

if they move on to a Bitcoin standard

not a Bitcoin standard necessarily but

let's say put Bitcoin on the reserves

which is what basically Trump and RFK

have said they would do what happens

then well Game Theory would tell us

competitive World investment World tells

us that every nation will have to

respond to that every single one and so

this is why this is a really big outlier

the way that I look at it

is in Trump's first term he did he did a

lot of what he said he would do for

example he said that for every one new

regulation I put into place will remove

three and actually if you look at his

term he removed five for every one that

he put in so for the mo you know he said

he drain the swamp I mean that's a very

broad term you know we can debate that

but the point is is that I believe sort

of his word if he says that he would put

Bitcoin on the Strategic reserves and he

has rfk's platform and Cynthia lus who's

already put the bill forward I think

that probably has a very high likelihood

of going through now right now the

markets are pricing in about a 65%

chance of winning for from the Electoral

College for Trump right now so he has

about a 65% chance of winning

and if he wins there's probably a 90%

chance that he actually does follow

through with that and puts it on the

reserves and if he does that then all

the other nations have to move and put

Bitcoin on their books so if that

happens when we look at where Bitcoin

could be by next year I mean we could be

certainly at the top end of that range

maybe in the sounds insane could be at

the three $400,000

levels now if Cala wins on the other

hand then obviously all of that I just

talked about is off of the table but

that doesn't mean that Bitcoin dies

Bitcoin is a global asset regardless of

what the US does Bitcoin is going to

continue going up Bitcoin is there as a

relief foul for the money Printing and

as we've both laid out already that's

not going to stop no matter who the

president is that's going to continue so

I think if Cala wins we're on the much

more probably conservative side of the

projection which might be in the hundred

you know $100,000 range by next year

maybe a little higher 150,000 but if

Trump wins I think we could be at the

top end of that range which again would

be you know somewhere in that $400,000

range wow it's so crazy to think about

those two very uh Divergent paths and

obviously we can hope that bitcoin's

going to do very well in the near term

but I can totally understand why some

people have felt very bearish in the in

in the short run wondering where it's

going to go and some analysts that I've

had on my show where I follow on Twitter

some of them are predicting a massive

crash where Bitcoin actually tanks

everything across the board goes down

we've already seen um things like real

estate decline in prices in in various

states are you are you one of the people

that are predicting a crash then money

printer or sort of this like choppy

sideways as they start to increase

liquidity um and coordinate with the

central banks around the world um so I'm

not one of the doomers predicting a

crash as a matter of fact I've been the

opposite so uh back to Global liquidity

if you look back to October of 2022 I

put a video on my channel said there is

no Market crash coming and here's why in

January I made another video said that

there's no crash coming I said here um

here's the feds pivoting here's the data

I made another video said it's time to

buy I'm buying now in in August of 2023

I made a video that the bare Market's

been cancelled and I've been making

videos saying that uh what we're really

expecting or what I'm expecting is a is

a crash I'm expecting a massive crash

and I'm expecting a really really bad

crash but it's a much different crash

than most people expect you see a crash

if you think about a crash what's

everybody afraid of a recession a market

crash what does that mean well if things

crash let's say what most people think

my my retirement portfolio drops my real

estate my home drops my I lose my job I

get a lower paying job my business

doesn't do as well I I don't make as

much money that that's what most people

think of but what does that mean what

all that means is that the quality of my

life would go down the standard of my

living goes down I don't have as much

money so I have to now eat hamburger

meat instead of steak so really what

they're saying is a crash means my

standard of living goes down but you see

prices don't have to drop for that to

happen prices could go up so fast that

my pay doesn't keep up and my standard

of living also goes down so it's a

reverse crash and while everybody's

expecting a deflationary crash I'm

expecting an inflationary crash now the

results are the same we both have a

standard of living that's been reduced

however I think a reverse crash and

inflationary crash is actually much

worse and the reason why it's much worse

is because on a deflationary crash

at least the markets reset and people

get a chance to get back in right my

kids could eventually buy a house but in

an inflationary crash you never get

another chance it's just too late and so

I think that's where we're going um now

will there be crashes I mean what is

your definition of that of course

there's going to be massive volatility

along the way uh but I don't expect any

long sustained depression you know maybe

we see some sort of flash crashes sort

of like we saw in 2020 that probably

last half the time something like that

not tradable events U because it's going

to be volatile along the way I mean if

you look at the chart of the Yar

inflation hyperinflation and you I'm

sure you've seen it right with the red

lines overlaid the volatility was insane

and so we'll have that uh but I'm

expecting the crash up it's time for a

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show that's really interesting I haven't

heard that concept before but you're

right I mean thinking about how they're

going to have to print in order to

sustain the debt and and keep everything

liquid I I figured that yeah real estate

prices asset prices they're just going

to continue to go up even if they

temporarily maybe crash fash in the

short run they have to go up over the

long run that'll be great for Bitcoin

but if you're trying to buy a house it's

not like it's going to be this situation

that we had in 089 where suddenly real

estate is cut like in half and you can

finally get your house uh it feels very

very different this time around and

you've been in let's let's talk about

that for a second just just for

everybody listening so um you mentioned

that there are some markets where real

estate has gone down but on a US

national median basis real estate is not

down it's up and that's because as I

made the case it's a perfect proxy for

this inflation so the US has been

increasing M2 by about 10% since 2019

and they're scheduled to continue to do

that so in five years from now where is

real estate it's up

50% it's up 50% now not every single

house if you you have to understand

there's no such thing as a real estate

market there's thousands of markets so

even take Miami yeah Miami is up 8%

year-over-year

but there's condos in Miami that are

down 50% but wait you said Miami was up

yes as a whole but that doesn't mean

that some condos along the water that

were overbuilt aren't still down 50% um

in Austin it was the best performing

market for 20 years overall it's down

about 20% Austin right now but there's

still some areas of Austin that are way

up and so you have to understand it's

very pocketed but I think overall it's

going to be moving up at the rate of

inflation we know that's going to be at

least 10% per year and that puts assets

up at least 50% in 5 years from now and

I think people need to be prepared for

that and taking action today for that

yeah you know you've been in more Cycles

than I have you've seen more bull runs

I'm I'm still pretty new and and that

bull run that we experienced when I

really launched this podcast like

2021 um that was unlike anything I've

ever experienced with just how much

attention was on this space Bitcoin

everyone wanting the content everyone

thinking that it's going to 100 and

150,00 000 and it's been so long since

that feeling has been in the industry

and in the community that I wonder if

future Cycles will be different um or if

the attention has kind of permanently

moved away can I get your take on that

since you have seen multiple bull runs

and you've been producing content in the

space like eventually do people all of a

sudden turn around and say oh my God the

price is up now it's at six figures I

have to dive in I have to learn about it

because it just feels like there's this

big lull and everyone's either paying

attention to the election in politics or

Ai and other Tech sectors that's a great

question Natalie so you're right I have

been through uh a bunch of Cycles in

Bitcoin but I've also been in a bunch of

Cycles so I started my career buying

real estate um in Southern California at

the bottom of a big crash so from ' 89

to ' 92 the markets had crashed I

started buying real estate in 1995 so at

the bottom of that crash and I and I and

then I was investing in Internet stock

so my roommate had quit his job we're

day trading these things called internet

stocks we were talking about these weird

names that nobody knew anything about in

like in like 98 99 um yeah and the the

reason why I bring that part up and then

obviously Doom crash but the reason why

I bring that part up Natalie is because

we were trading these things called

internet stocks and people thought we

were crazy talking about these internet

stocks but today there's no such thing

as Internet stocks they're just

companies mhm and the reason why I bring

that up is because we'll come fast

forward so now uh I started I started

looking at Bitcoin at in around 2013

when the price started running up and I

was going to buy I'm like oh my gosh I

don't know what this thing is but it's

going up then it spectac spectacularly

crashed I didn't buy it I started buying

in 2015 around 300 bucks and I saw it

run from 2015 to 2017 got up to

$2,000 and I was writing a

cryptocurrency newsletter every once in

a while someone on Twitter wants to call

me out oh look this guy used to be

crypto yeah I talk about it all the time

I wrote a crypto newsletter and I

personally turn I I personally turned

about 100 Grand and over $5 million in

that time period um and uh we we made

some amazing calls but the reason why I

say that is because then 2018 happened

and the market crashed and then 2019 and

it seemed to drag on forever and I did

get to the point Natalie where I'm like

this will probably never C come back why

didn't I sell I'm such an idiot I should

have sold it's never coming back that

pit of despair you've all seen that like

Wall Street psychology thing uh the pit

of despair was like it's never coming

back what's going to happen but it did

and every time it crashes we start

asking ourselves if it's ever going to

come back and it does every time now

back to will the second part of the

question that you asked is will people

eventually get much more interested in

it and the reason why I gave you the

story about the internet is because I

think as it's making more mainstream

adoption as it's m making more

mainstream headlines as Black Rock has

now added to their ETF and Larry Finks

talking about it on TV I think it just

it disappears into the social construct

and it's not this new crazy thing that

people don't know about anymore so I

would think that just like internet

stocks are basically gone today I think

cryptocurrency will be gone as well and

Bitcoin will just sort of Fade Into the

the mainstream and it won't be all these

people wanting to know what it is most

people already know what it is at this

point so uh to your point one yes the

Cycles tell us that it will come back we

always believe it won't but it will but

number two I think collectively people

will probably you know be more

interested in other subjects or maybe

more interested about how Bitcoin

changes other things so I've often said

you know so I'm a I'm a partner in the

Bitcoin opportunity fund so we're

investing into companies that are

building on and around the Bitcoin

ecosystem and I say we don't need more

Bitcoin products we need Bitcoin in more

products yeah it needs to go in and and

and so back to the content I think the

same way we don't need more Bitcoin

content we need Bitcoin to find its way

way through all the content where it

just sort of now fits into the culture

fits into society so I think that's how

it's going to change I think it already

yeah I like that the idea that Bitcoin

is going to integrate into everything so

much that you don't really talk about it

as its own individual thing um well that

actually makes me think of one of my

final questions for you which is just

the the question of what Bitcoin will be

in 5 to 10 years with the opposing

forces of you know control and and

governments wanting to surveil and

monitor and extract as many resources

and um extract the taxes as much as they

can what do you think Bitcoin will be

because there are so many people who

want to see it as Freedom money as a

truly peer-to-peer Network as a digital

cash there are others that seem to be

okay with it being more of that store of

value that is within the framework of

all the other stores of value and

equities and gold and all of that how

how do you see this playing out do you

think that we'll be able to freely

transact or we're going to have to go

through these Gatekeepers that are all

regulated and essentially monitor what

you're doing no I don't think there's

going to be The Gatekeepers that are

going to moderate now obviously country

by country region by region those things

can change I mean the United States

could pass some Bill where they say

We'll Kill You On Site if we catch you I

mean that could theoretically happen

it's a it's what we call a possibility

but not a probability there's really not

a probable chance that would happen it's

possible sure um I don't think that the

US would take that stance as of right

now I think the US has uh We've

entrenched ourself the bitcoiners have

entrenched themselves into the system

too much at this point meaning there's

uh several dozen high ranking members of

government Congressman Senators Etc that

are bitcoiners Patrick McKenry who led

the financial services committee hangs

the Bitcoin white paper in his office we

have you know um Senators like lumus um

putting bills in place uh states have

been um putting into their state

constitutions guaranteed rights for it

um so I think it's just it's just way

too entrenched in that standpoint but

also the laws aren't really made by our

lawmakers the people we elect to go make

laws the laws are really made by the

lobby groups and then they're given to

lawmakers just to co-sign right and so

the lobby groups if you think about who

they are pharmaceutical at the top but

the financial services committee is is

pretty high up there and when you look

at Black Rock and Fidelity and these

financial institutions who have spent

probably billions of dollars to build

Bitcoin products I don't think they're

going to be real happy if the government

tries to make them illegal so I think we

have them on our side as well now to the

I think kind of the question you asked

could they say well you can buy through

an ETF but you can't really own it you

can't self- custody it well as I said

some states have already enshrined that

rights in their constitution so that's

going to be a battle but ultimately I

think it fails because uh how's that

worked with drugs and drugs are physical

drugs have to be grown cultivated packet

ship process smuggled and then

distributed and when they tell us not to

do drugs it doesn't make us want to do

drugs right we don't have it doesn't

incentivize us to do that but how do

they stop something completely digital

obviously they can't but when they tell

us that that we can't store our wealth

or transact in a way that we can't uh or

that they can't steal from us it sort of

makes us want to do that like gun cells

go through the roof when they talk about

banning guns or or cracking down on guns

but then we have to think globally so

even if the US were to do that against

everything I've said I mean what about

the rest of the world and then I would

say on top of that so so that being said

I I I want to make the statement that

governments can't stop but I don't think

the US can stop it I don't think even if

the US did the other nations can't stop

it but I do want to throw this out there

because this is going to change it a

little bit we're talking about in the

question you asked me would we be using

it for spending could they take that

away from us in five years would be

using as a medium of exchange right and

I think the answer is no Natalie and the

reason why is gresham's law or or the

reverse of gresham's law which basically

means that bad money drives out good or

good money drives out bad right the

reverse of that and so let me just give

you a practical example of that um maybe

a lot of your listeners already know

this but

pre-1965 quarters and dimes were pure

silver in 1965 they took the silver away

and now they're basically junk medals

now a

1964 quarter will still get you about a

gallon a gallon it was a gallon of gas

back then and today it's still a gallon

of gas it's worth about three bucks but

the point I have is that you will not

find anybody using a pre-65 dime quarter

why no one's going to spend that di why

would you spend it so they take those

dimes out of circulation and they spend

the post 60 5 quarters in dimes no one's

spending those dimes right and so that

is the thing that we have going on as of

right now the dollar is an amazing

payment network if I think of it that

way and so we'll continue to use it and

we're going to continue to hold Bitcoin

now there's also the tax implications

that's another another topic that we

could bring up in the United States

doesn't pertain to the rest of the world

necessarily but I think until we get to

a Tipping Point which I don't think is

in 5 years it's probably further out

we're going to continue to use the bad

money the post 65 quarters we're going

to continue to hoard the good money the

pre-65 quarters and that's the Bitcoin

that's a good analogy that's an interest

interesting way of putting it I think it

does differ depending on where you are

because sometimes Bitcoin is I I mean

it's it's different than the dollars and

you you're going to want to maybe spend

your Bitcoin and I don't

know I I think it depends a little bit

about it certainly brings uh up a good

point Natalie and and this is actually a

very good point I'm glad you brought it

up so there are things that Bitcoin can

do that nothing else can do so for

example Bitcoin can do micro payments

right you can't send 35 cents on the

internet anywhere in the world so

Bitcoin can do that so in those

instances where we need to do micro

payments which is going to be massive

with AI we didn't even get a chance to

get into that but Bitcoin is person

meaning you don't have to be a person to

get a bank account and so now with the

rise of AI and robots they could have

their own Bitcoin accounts and they

could do micro payments and so Bitcoin

will start moving into that range it'll

do what dollars can't do so micro

payments number one number two um heavy

authoritarian regimes that have heavy

censorship North Korea Afghanistan uh

you know n in Canada with the trucker

rally in times where the government's

trying to crack down on censorship of

payments then Bitcoin can be used as

well so Bitcoin will certainly get

adoption in those areas where it can do

things that the traditional payment

system can't do unfortunately I'm not

happy about this but unfortunately I

believe that uh governments get more

authoritarian in the near future than

less and so there will be an increased

demand and and I typically think of the

demand drivers for Bitcoin being two

things uh

one will governments print more or less

money in the future right more and

number two will governments become more

authoritarian in the future and I think

both of those are main drivers and so

Bitcoin will be used in those areas

where we can't use traditional fiat

currency and that's why I said it it

will happen I just think it's further

out than five years great points um all

right well I know we're short on time I

could talk to you for an hour but

anything you want to leave the audience

with um any final

thoughts uh boy I would just say that I

think again as we started out just

saying zoom out and ultimately what I

want to say we we didn't really get a

chance to get into this but I have a

free ebook on my website and it's just

how to retire off Bitcoin taxfree um and

and I and I frame up what's called the

money game the game of money and in the

game of money people have to understand

this and I start off with a quote saying

when people ask me at what price will I

sell my Bitcoin I look at them and just

say you have no idea what game we're

playing and and the reason why I just

want to end with this is because of the

zoom out thesis right so the goal in the

game of money which is certainly not our

highest calling in life but in the game

of Building Wealth is to earn in fiat

currency and buy assets and those assets

should be building month after month and

I should my goal should be to die with

more assets than I was born with than I

have now and so I want to earn in Fiat

and buy assets and hold those assets

forever the goal is not to sell assets

for Fiat and when you start to think

about it in those terms it helps you

zoom out like I don't care what the

price of Bitcoin is going to be in a in

a week or a month or in six months from

now because my goal is to hold it

forever as as sailor would say right

forever yeah um and so I think you have

to think of it in those terms we want to

be earning always be earning in Fiat

saving in an asset like Bitcoin and it's

forever and it's longterm and I think if

people take that Viewpoint I think

they're going to be uh much more calm

they'll sleep better at night and

they're going to be much more successful

than most people I love it you've

already made me feel more bullish

because I've been feeling the

bearishness in this whole market so Mark

Moss thank you so much I'm going to have

all of his info in the show notes make

sure to check out his book on Communist

Manifesto uh his show on YouTube I watch

the videos they're fantastic so Mark

hope to see you again soon thanks thanks

Natalie thank you so much for checking

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