Mark Moss: Get Ready for an Inflationary Crash in Markets - Bitcoin, Real Estate, Stocks

Summary

In this episode of Coin Stories, Natalie Brunell interviews Mark Moss, discussing the macro outlook on Bitcoin and the financial markets. Moss emphasizes the importance of looking at the big picture, predicting that despite current market slumps, a rate cut is imminent, leading to a global easing cycle that will boost equity markets. He also touches on Bitcoin's correlation with liquidity, suggesting it's on track to rise significantly as global liquidity increases. The conversation covers the impact of the U.S. presidential election on Bitcoin, with Moss suggesting a Trump win could be a catalyst for Bitcoin's integration into strategic reserves, potentially sending its value soaring.

Takeaways

• 🔍 Mark Moss emphasizes the importance of taking a macro perspective on investments, advising against focusing too closely on daily market fluctuations.
• 📉 Moss explains that the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle, which began in November 2021, was anticipated to eventually shift back to an easing cycle, which is now occurring.
• 🌐 He discusses the coordinated actions of major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, ECB, BOJ, and PBOC, and their impact on global liquidity and markets.
• 📈 Moss points out that despite the market volatility, Bitcoin has shown significant gains over the past year, outperforming traditional markets like the S&P 500.
• 💡 He suggests that Bitcoin's price movements are closely tied to global liquidity, and as liquidity increases, so should Bitcoin's value, with historical cycles indicating a six-month lag.
• 🏛 Moss speculates on the potential impact of the US presidential election on Bitcoin, with different administrations having varying levels of support for cryptocurrencies.
• 📊 The conversation touches on the concept of 'crash up' versus 'crash down', with Moss predicting a possible inflationary crash where asset prices rise rapidly, affecting the standard of living.
• 🏦 Moss highlights the influence of financial institutions and lobby groups on policy-making regarding Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
• 🌐 He anticipates that Bitcoin will continue to gain mainstream adoption and will integrate into various aspects of finance and technology, potentially becoming a standard feature rather than a niche investment.
• 💭 Moss leaves the audience with a long-term perspective on Bitcoin investment, advocating for holding Bitcoin as an asset and focusing on the 'zoom out' thesis for wealth building.

Q & A

What does Mark Moss suggest people do when they're too focused on short-term market fluctuations?

Mark Moss suggests that people should 'zoom out' and not get caught up in daily, weekly, or even monthly fluctuations as it can drive them crazy. He emphasizes the importance of looking at the bigger picture and long-term trends rather than getting overwhelmed by short-term market noise.

What is the significance of the Federal Reserve's actions on the economy according to Mark Moss?

Mark Moss explains that the Federal Reserve's actions, particularly its tightening and easing cycles, have significant impacts on the economy. He mentions that the Fed's decision to tighten since November 2021 was expected to eventually lead to a lowering of rates, which is a part of a debt-based monetary system's need to expand over time.

How does Mark Moss view the current unemployment and inflation trends in relation to economic policy?

Mark Moss observes that unemployment has started to tick up and inflation has begun to cool down, signaling a shift towards easing policies. He believes these trends are part of a coordinated global response, with central banks around the world preparing to ease in unison, which he anticipates will lead to a resurgence in global equity markets.

What is Mark Moss's perspective on Bitcoin's price not reaching six figures yet?

Mark Moss is not surprised that Bitcoin has not reached six figures yet, as he believes the current price reflects the actual data and global liquidity trends. He points out that Bitcoin's price is influenced by global liquidity, which did not increase as quickly as he initially expected, leading to the current price levels.

How does Mark Moss analyze the correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity?

Mark Moss analyzes the correlation by looking at historical cycles and data. He notes that Bitcoin's price has a high sensitivity to liquidity changes, with an approximate 8.95 times multiplier effect compared to a 10% increase in liquidity. This means that Bitcoin's price moves more dramatically in response to changes in the monetary base than other assets.

What does Mark Moss predict regarding the upcoming U.S. presidential election's impact on Bitcoin?

Mark Moss predicts that if Trump wins the election, there is a high likelihood that he will follow through on his stated plans to put Bitcoin on strategic reserves, which could lead to a significant increase in Bitcoin's price. Conversely, if Biden wins, he anticipates a more conservative price projection for Bitcoin, due to the current administration's less favorable stance towards cryptocurrencies.

What is Mark Moss's outlook on the potential for a market crash?

Mark Moss does not predict a traditional market crash. Instead, he foresees a potential 'reverse crash' or inflationary crash, where asset prices increase so rapidly that the standard of living decreases for many people, despite the nominal prices not dropping.

How does Mark Moss view the future of Bitcoin in the context of government control and surveillance?

Mark Moss believes that Bitcoin is too entrenched in the global financial system to be effectively controlled or stopped by governments. He suggests that while there may be regional variations in regulation, the decentralized nature of Bitcoin will ensure its continued use, especially in areas where it offers unique capabilities that traditional currencies cannot match.

What advice does Mark Moss give to those interested in Bitcoin as an investment?

Mark Moss advises to 'zoom out' and focus on the long-term trends rather than short-term price fluctuations. He suggests viewing Bitcoin as a long-term asset to hold rather than something to be traded frequently. He also promotes the idea of earning in fiat currency and consistently investing in assets like Bitcoin for the long term.

How does Mark Moss think the role of Bitcoin will evolve in the next 5 to 10 years?

Mark Moss envisions Bitcoin integrating into the financial system to the point where it becomes a normal part of society, rather than a separate asset class. He anticipates that Bitcoin will be used for transactions where it has unique advantages, such as micropayments and in regions with heavy government censorship, while traditional currencies will continue to be used for everyday transactions due to network effects and tax implications.