Warren Buffett Just Sold $100 Billion Worth of Stock.
Summary
TLDRDer Video-Skript beleuchtet Warren Buffetts Aktionen im Jahr 2024, insbesondere die Verkäufe von Aktien im Wert von 97 Milliarden US-Dollar. Buffett, der früher für sein Halten von Aktien bekannt war, hat nun aufgrund des steigenden Aktienmarkts und möglicher zukünftiger Steuererhöhungen eine enorme Menge an Bargeld von 276 Milliarden US-Dollar angehäuft. Dies hat Anleger besorgt, da Buffetts frühere Aktionen vor Aktienmarktkrisen ein Zeichen für eine bevorstehende Korrektur waren. Der Aktienmarktwert in Bezug auf die US-Wirtschaft (Buffett-Indikator) ist aktuell höher als je zuvor, was auf eine mögliche Blase hindeutet und erklärt Buffetts Zurückhaltung bei neuen Investitionen.
Takeaways
- 💼 Warren Buffett hat im ersten halben Jahr 2024 einen erstaunlichen Verkauf von 97 Milliarden Dollar an Aktien durchgeführt, was auf eine mögliche Bewertung der US-Aktienmärkte hindeutet.
- 📉 Buffett hat in der Vergangenheit erfolgreich große Mengen an Bargeld angehäuft, bevor Aktienmärkte einbrachen, um dann günstig einzusteigen.
- 📈 Die Aktien von Apple, ein Unternehmen, das Buffett zuvor für immer halten wollte, wurden im ersten halben Jahr 2024 im Wert von etwa 90 Milliarden Dollar verkauft.
- 💰 Buffetts Aktienverkauf ist auf steigende Steuersätze zurückzuführen, was jedoch nur eine Oberflächenbegründung sein könnte.
- 🔍 Buffett hat in früheren Jahren die Aktien von Apple als Teil der sogenannten 'Big Four' von Berkshire Hathaway bezeichnet, was auf deren Wichtigkeit für das Unternehmen hindeutet.
- 🚨 Buffetts aktuelles Verhalten, große Mengen an Aktien zu verkaufen und keine neuen Investitionen zu tätigen, lässt auf eine mögliche Überbewertung des Aktienmarktes schließen.
- 📊 Der 'Buffett-Indikator', der den Wert des US-Aktienmarktes in Relation zur Wirtschaftsgröße misst, zeigt derzeit ein Rekordhoch, was auf eine mögliche Blase hindeutet.
- 🌐 Die US-Schulden haben ein historisches Hoch erreicht, was die Notwendigkeit von höheren Steuern in der Zukunft nahelegt.
- 💡 Buffett betont, dass er keine Ideen hat, wie er das verfügbare Bargeld effektiv nutzen könnte, was darauf hindeutet, dass er die aktuellen Investitionsmöglichkeiten als unattraktiv erachtet.
- 📚 Buffetts jährliche Briefe an die Aktionäre von Berkshire Hathaway sind für Investoren von großem Interesse und enthalten wertvolle Erkenntnisse über sein Investment-Philosophie.
Q & A
Wie hoch lag die Aktienverkäufe von Warren Buffett im ersten halben Jahr 2024?
-Warren Buffett verkaufte im ersten halben Jahr 2024 einen erstaunlichen Betrag von 97 Milliarden US-Dollar an Aktien.
Was ist der sogenannte 'Buffett-Indikator' und wie wird er berechnet?
-Der 'Buffett-Indikator' ist ein Maß für die Beurteilung von Aktienmarktbewertungen, der durch Warren Buffett geprägt wurde. Er wird berechnet, indem der Gesamtwert des US-Aktienmarktes durch das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) der USA dividiert wird.
Was zeigt der Buffett-Indikator für den Stand des US-Aktienmarktes zum Zeitpunkt der Videoerstellung?
-Der Buffett-Indikator zeigte zum Zeitpunkt der Videoerstellung einen Wert von 202%, was auf ein historisch hohes Niveau des US-Aktienmarktes hinweist.
Warum hat Warren Buffett im Jahr 2024 eine große Menge an Aktien verkauft?
-Buffett hat im Jahr 2024 eine große Menge an Aktien verkauft, weil er glaubt, dass der US-Aktienmarkt in einem massiven Blase ist und er auf der Suche nach attraktiven Investitionsmöglichkeiten ist, die seine hohen Standards erfüllen.
Wie hoch lag der Cash-Bestand von Berkshire Hathaway nach der Aktienverkaufsrunde von Buffett?
-Nach der Aktienverkaufsrunde von Buffett lag der Cash-Bestand von Berkshire Hathaway bei einem erstaunlichen Betrag von 276 Milliarden US-Dollar.
Was hat Warren Buffett über die Steueraspekte seiner Aktienverkaufstätigkeiten gesagt?
-Buffett argumentierte, dass er eine große Anzahl von Aktien verkaufte, weil er mit einer möglichen Erhöhung der Steuern rechnet, was die Einnahmen aus den Gewinnen der Verkaufsaktivitäten beeinträchtigen könnte.
Welche Rolle spielt die Bewertung von Apple-Aktien im Verkaufsentscheidungsprozess von Buffett?
-Die Bewertung von Apple-Aktien hat eine wichtige Rolle gespielt, da Buffett beobachtet hat, dass der Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (PE-Verhältnis) von Apple signifikant gestiegen ist und er möglicherweise eine Überbewertung schätzt.
Warum hat Buffett seine Haltung an Apple-Aktien im ersten halben Jahr 2024 reduziert?
-Buffett hat seine Haltung an Apple-Aktien reduziert, weil er annimmt, dass die Aktien möglicherweise überbewertet sind und er die Steueraspekte der Verkäufe als Grund für die Reduktion angegeben hat.
Was sagt Buffett über die aktuelle Situation des US-Aktienmarktes und seine Investitionsstrategie?
-Buffett sagt, dass er und seine Teammitglieder keine effektive Verwendung für den Cash-Bestand finden konnten, was darauf hindeutet, dass sie die aktuellen Investitionsmöglichkeiten als unattraktiv erachten.
Wie hoch ist die US-Schuldenquote im Vergleich zum BIP und was bedeutet das für Buffetts Investitionsentscheidungen?
-Die US-Schuldenquote im Vergleich zum BIP ist historisch hoch, was darauf hindeutet, dass die US-Regierung möglicherweise Steuern erhöhen muss, was wiederum Buffetts Entscheidungen beeinflusst, Aktien zu verkaufen und auf der Suche nach attraktiven Investitionsmöglichkeiten zu sein.
Outlines
📈 Warren Buffetts Aktienverkauf und Bargeldanlagen
Warren Buffett hat im ersten halben Jahr 2024 einen erstaunlichen Verkauf von 97 Milliarden US-Dollar an Aktien durchgeführt, während der US-Aktienmarkt weiterhin in ungewohnter Höhe klettert. Buffett hat in der Vergangenheit eine Vorliebe für das Aufbauen von Bargeldvorräten vor Aktienmarktkrisen gezeigt, was auf eine mögliche baldige Korrektur oder einen Absturz des Marktes hindeutet. Sein Bargeldbestand hat in den letzten zwei Jahren von 100 Milliarden auf fast 300 Milliarden US-Dollar fast verdreifacht, was Anleger alarmiert, da Buffett auch Aktien von Unternehmen wie Apple, die er zuvor für immer halten wollte, verkauft hat.
💼 Steueraspekte und die Entscheidung zum Verkauf von Aktien
Buffett gab an, dass er eine große Position in Apple-Aktien aufgrund von Steuergründen verkauft hat. Er argumentierte, dass die aktuelle Steuerbelastung von 21% im Vergleich zu früheren Raten von 35% oder 52% niedriger ist und dass eine Erhöhung der Steuern in der Zukunft wahrscheinlich ist. Dies könnte die Rendite der Aktienverkaufseinnahmen erheblich verringern. Buffetts Entscheidung, Apple-Aktien zu verkaufen, war jedoch auch auf die Bewertung von Apple zurückzuführen, die von einem PE-Verhältnis von 10 auf über 30 gestiegen ist, was auf eine mögliche Überbewertung hindeutet.
📉 Buffetts Zurückhaltung bei neuen Investitionen
Buffett hat kürzlich weniger in neue Investitionen investiert, was zu einem Anstauen von Bargeld geführt hat. Er selbst gab an, dass er keine effektive Verwendung für das Bargeld gefunden habe, was darauf hindeutet, dass er die aktuellen Aktienpreise für überteuert hält. Dies wird durch den sogenannten 'Buffett-Indikator' untermauert, der den Wert des US-Aktienmarktes im Verhältnis zur US-Wirtschaft misst. Mit einem Stand von 202% ist dieser Indikator bei einem Rekordhoch, was auf eine mögliche Blase im Aktienmarkt hinweist und erklärt Buffetts Zurückhaltung.
💡 Lernen von Buffetts Anlagestrategie
Der letzte Absatz des Textes deutet darauf hin, dass es weitere Ressourcen gibt, in denen Warren Buffett seine Anlagestrategie teilt, insbesondere wie man auch mit kleinen Beträgen hohe Renditen erzielen kann. Dies wird als Anregung für Anleger gesehen, die ernsthaft über Investitionen im Aktienmarkt nachdenken und von Buffetts langjähriger Erfahrung und Weisheit lernen möchten.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Warren Buffett
💡Barmittel
💡Aktienverkauf
💡Aktienmarkt
💡Bewertung
💡Buffett-Indikator
💡Steuerbelastung
💡Apple
💡Investitionen
💡Berichte von Warren Buffett
Highlights
Warren Buffett sold $97 billion worth of stock in the first half of 2024, possibly indicating a cautious stance on the market.
Buffett's actions suggest he might be preparing for a stock market downturn, similar to his behavior before previous crashes.
Buffett's cash pile at Berkshire Hathaway has grown to over $182 billion, a significant increase from previous years.
Buffett's past success in investing during market crashes after building cash reserves is highlighted.
The video discusses Buffett's recent sale of approximately $90 billion worth of Apple stock in 2024.
Buffett's tax-related explanation for selling Apple stock is presented, along with a discussion on potential future tax increases.
The transcript mentions Buffett's historical views on taxes and their impact on investment decisions.
Buffett's past praise for Apple as a 'family jewel' asset of Berkshire Hathaway is contrasted with his recent sales.
The video analyzes Apple's price to earnings ratio over time and its potential overvaluation.
Buffett's hesitance to make new investments due to a lack of attractive opportunities is discussed.
The 'Buffett Indicator' is introduced as a measure of stock market valuation relative to the economy.
The current Buffett Indicator reading is at its highest level ever, suggesting potential market overvaluation.
Buffett's cautious approach to the market is linked to the high valuations and his sitting on the sidelines.
The video concludes with a teaser for additional content on Buffett's investment strategies for generating high returns.
Transcripts
uh this question is from Johan Halen who
writes you're sitting on 168 billion of
cash which you told us today is now more
than $182 billion his questions are one
what is Buffett waiting for and two why
not at least deploy some of it well I
think that's pretty easy to answer
Warren Buffett sold the Staggering $97
billion worth of stock through the first
6 months of 2024 Yes you heard that
right as the US Stock Market has
continued to climb to uncomfortably high
levels Buffett has been dumping shares
to the tune of nearly $100 billion you
need to be paying attention to this or
else you could lose a lot of money if
you ask waren Buffett he'll be the first
to say that it's foolish to attempt to
time the stock market however Buffett's
actions tell quite a different story
take a look at this chart the gray bars
are berkshire's cash position at the end
of each quarter the Orange Line
represents the value of the S&P 500 the
most frequently used us stock market
index as we can see here despite what he
may say in public Buffett has quite the
track record of building large piles of
cash ahead of a stock market crash in
the buildup to the Doom crash of the
early 2000s Buffett grew berkshire's
cash pile by a factor of 10 Buffett then
took advantage of the bubble bursting
and spent down his cash by buying up
stocks for cheap there is also the great
financial crisis you can see that as the
stock market continued to climb so did
Buffett's cash pile the stock market
went on to decline by a staggering 50%
from its peak what did Buffett do you
guessed it he used the cash he was
sitting on to make some of the biggest
and most successful Investments of his
career the cash pile that Buffett has
built now makes these prior examples
look tiny by comparison as the US Stock
Market has soared so is the amount of
cash Buffett is holding raising alarm
bells that Buffett thinks the US Stock
Market is in a massive bubble Buffett's
cash pile has now grown to a staggering
$276
billion as you can see here this cash
pile has nearly tripled in just the past
2 years growing from 100 billion in the
summer of 2022 to nearly $300 billion as
of the making of this video Buffett
rapidly increasing his cash position has
followers of Buffett very nervous you
see in the past when cash increased at
Berkshire it was slow and steady over a
period of many years Berkshire hathway
is a whole in company that owns dozens
and dozens of different businesses these
businesses generate cash in the form of
profits from their operations in the
past Buffett would slow down his pace of
making Investments and cash would
naturally pile up but oh boy is this
time different I have studied Buffett's
entire career and I have not been able
to find another time where Buffett sold
such a large portion of stocks in such a
small time frame what's even more
drawring is the fact that Buffett is
selling stocks and companies that he
previously said he planned to hold hold
forever this includes Buffet selling a
staggering roughly 90 billion worth of
Apple stock in the first 6 months of
2024 alone it wasn't too long ago when
Buffett considered Apple to be one of
the stocks he would likely never sell in
Buffett's 2020 annual letter he called
the steak and apple one of berkshire's
family Jewel assets according to a
simple Google search the term Family
Jewels refers to valuable items
belonging to a particular family and
handed down from one generation to the
next by Buffett calling the Apple steak
a family Jewel of Berkshire he was
essentially implying that this was a
position Buffett planed to hold for the
rest of his life in essence signaling
that he was planning on passing down the
steak and apple to the next generation
of leaders at Berkshire hathway this
praise for Apple was not just a onetime
thing in Buffett's 2021 annual letter
Buffett referred to Apple as part of
Berkshire hathways so-called big four
the four largest and most important
Holdings to the future success of Bur
the big four consisted of berkshire's
massive Insurance operation Apple the
railroad BNSF and the utility company
Berkshire hathway energy notably apple
is the only stock position to make this
list the insurance operations BNSF and
Berkshire hathway energy are all fully
owned
subsidiaries as a quick aside a big part
of the research for this video involved
going through Buffett's famous annual
letters to see what he had to say about
Apple Buffett's letters are considered a
must read for those who want to learn
about business and investing as a thank
you for watching this video I have
compiled 43 years worth of Buffets
letters that you can download completely
for free at the link in the description
of this video make sure to check them
out because they were super helpful for
me and I'm sure they'll be just as
useful for you with that out of the way
let's get back to the
video Buffett's past praise for Apple
was a large reason why it was so
shocking when he began to rapidly sell
down the apple steak here's what had to
say when asked why he has been selling
shares of apple one thing that may
surprise you we don't mind paying taxes
at Burkshire we are paying a 21% federal
rate on the gains we're taking in uh
apple and that rate was 35% not that
long ago and it's been 52% in the in the
past the federal government owns a part
of the earnings of the business we make
they don't own the assets but they own a
percentage of the
earnings and uh they can change that
percentage any year and the percentage
that they've decreed currently is 21%
and I would say with the present fiscal
policies I think that something has to
give and I think that higher taxes are
quite likely and the government wants to
take a greater share of your income or
mine or burches they can do it and uh
they may decide that someday they don't
want the fiscal deficit to be this large
because that has some important
consequences and they may not want to
decrease spending a lot and they may
decide they'll take a larger percentage
of what we earn and we'll pay it I would
really hope with the all of America's
done for all of you shouldn't bother you
that we do it and if if I'm doing it at
21% this year and we're doing it at a
higher percentage later on I don't think
you'll actually mind the the fact but uh
we Sol a little apple this year as you
just saw buffet was quick to say that
his decision to sell a large portion of
his position in apple was tax related
however this simply doesn't tell the
entire story the true reason why Buffett
has been selling billions of stock
lately is more concerning you'll see
what I mean in a second but first let me
explain Buffett's point on taxes Buffett
spent approximately $31 billion
acquiring shares in apple the majority
of these shares were purchased between
2016 and 2018 when Apple stock was
trading well below current levels at the
end of 2023 the value of the stake has
swelled to a staggering
$174
billion this means that Buffett was
sitting on a roughly $143 billion
unrealized gain money that he would have
to pay taxes on whenever he did
eventually sell whatever the tax rate is
at the time the stock is sold will
greatly impact how much money Buffett
and Berkshire will get to keep after
paying the tax bill the Us corporate tax
rate is currently sitting at 21% down
from 35% as recently as 2017 and the
lowest corporate tax rate in the post
World War II period with a 21% tax rate
Berkshire hathway would pay about 30
billion in federal taxes and a $143
billion gain however if that rate would
increase back to 35% that tax bill would
jump to a whopping $50 billion a full 20
billion more dollars going to taxes buff
it makes the case that given the current
Financial challenges the US government
is facing elected officials will
eventually have no choice but to
significantly raise taxes on
corporations as we can see here the US
federal debt to GDP is at its highest
level ever higher than even when the US
borrowed heavily and drastically
downsized the civilian economy during
World War II in fact the US is in so
much debt that just the annual interest
payments to stay current on this debt
have officially surpassed what the
country spends each year in both defense
and Medicare for the first time ever
with this background Buffett's argument
about selling stocks ahead of higher
potential taxes in the future seems to
make sense on the surface however this
does not tell the whole story the higher
taxes argument is just a cover story if
we read in between the lines we can see
the true reasons as to why Buffett is
selling is far more worrisome than just
higher potential
taxes now this isn't even coming from me
here is Buffett in his own words in 2011
Buffett wrote an opinion piece in the
New York Times titled stop coddling the
rich in this article he argued that the
US government should significantly
increase tax rates on investment returns
here's what he had to say back in the
1980s and 1990s tax rates for the rich
were far higher and my percentage rate
was in the middle of the pack according
to a theory I sometimes hear I should
have thrown a fit and refused to invest
because of the elevated tax rates on
capital gains and dividends I didn't
refuse nor did others I have worked with
investors for 60 years and I have yet to
see anyone not even when capital gains
rates were 39.9% in 1976 to 77 shy away
from a sensible investment because of
the tax rate on the potential gain
people invest to make money and
potential taxes have never scared them
off here Buffett is making it abundantly
clear that higher taxes have never
factored into his investment decisions
in fact you can find countless examples
just like this one of Buffett striking a
similar tone so after building a
legendary career not factoring in tax
rates into his investment process why is
Buffett suddenly selling $100 billion
worth of stocks over tax concerns as
you're about to see the answer is
worrisome it's no secret that Warren
Buffett is the most closely followed
investor on the planet he's one of only
a handful of people with the power to
move the stock market with just his
words when he explained why he had been
selling Apple stock buffet was speaking
to a crowd of 40,000 people at the
famous Berkshire haway way annual
meeting in that crowd was none other
than Tim Cook the CEO of Apple the
comment Buffett would make it this venue
eventually went on to be broadcasted to
millions of people across the
World Imagine the Uproar and ripple
effects if Buffett would have told his
Legion of loyal followers that he was
selling Apple because it was overvalued
Buffett obviously knows his every word
is closely
scrutinized therefore saying he was
selling for tax reasons was a way to
answer the question of why he was
selling Apple stock without raising
alarm Bells however the real reason as
to why Buffett has been selling tens of
billions of dollars worth of stock
should be obvious to longtime Buffett
followers take a look at this chart of
Apple's price to earnings ratio over
time when Buffett bought the vast
majority of his stake in apple the stock
was trading at a PE ratio of between 10
and 15 at the time the majority of
investors viewed apple as an
undifferentiated Tech hardware company
at risk of rapidly losing market share
if a better competing product was
introduced used Put It Simply Apple
stock was unloved by investors now the
company has universally become
recognized as one of the best companies
in the world as a result Apple's PE
ratio has increased from 10 times when
Buffett started buying it to over 30
times now causing many value investors
to worry that apple is significantly
overvalued at the end of 2023
berkshire's entire market cap was $800
billion however the value of the Apple
steak had grown to a whopping
$174
billion this means that the Apple stake
alone was a staggering 22% of the entire
company the potential overvaluation in
Apple stock was simply too big for
Buffett to ignore one factor that has
caused this cash pilot Berkshire to grow
significantly is Buffett selling large
amounts of stock he previously owned
however the other reason cash has
accumulated is because Buffett has been
eerily quiet when it comes to making new
Investments Buffett is very clear as to
why this is happening happening listen
to what he had to say when asked why he
has been sitting on the sidelines well I
think that's pretty easy to
answer I I don't think anybody sitting
at this table has has any idea of how to
use it effectively and therefore we
don't we don't use it it isn't like I'm
got a hunger strike or something like
that going on uh it's just the
they things aren't
attractive as Buffett just mentioned the
potential overvaluation in stocks
spreads far beyond just apple one way to
see how overvalued the stock market is
right now is to look at what is referred
to as the buffet indicator the buffet
indicator was coined by yes you guessed
it Warren Buffett Buffett described the
ratio as the best single measure of
where valuation stand at any given
moment the buffet indicator expresses
the value Val of the US stock market in
terms of the size of the US economy if
the stock market value is growing much
faster than the actual economy then it
may be in a bubble calculating the
buffet indicator is incredibly
straightforward just simply take the
total value of the US Stock Market which
as of the making of this video is $ 57.5
trillion next you divide that number by
the current size of the US economy as
measured by gross domestic product the
annual GDP currently stands at 28.4 $42
trillion this leaves us with a reading
of 202% from the buffet indicator now is
this a good or bad number for the buffet
indicator well you are about to be in
for quite the surprise when you see a
chart of the buffet indicator dating
back to
1950 at 202% the buffet indicator is
essentially at its highest level ever
the last time the buffet indicator was
this high was back in 2021 when
historically low interest rates caused
the stock market to be in a Buble those
good times did not last for long as the
stock market had one of the worst years
ever the following year in 2022 the S&P
500 went on to fall nearly 20% and the
NASDAQ fell by a staggering
33% of course only time will tell what
the future holds but this helps explain
why Buffett is cautious and sitting on
the sidelines if you made it this far in
the video it's obvious you're serious
about investing and want to learn how to
make money investing in the stock market
make sure to check out this video here
because Warren Buffett provides the
secret on how to generate High
investment returns even with small sums
of money I will see you over there
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