Why the impact of OpenAI's groundbreaking text-to-video tool Sora will be huge | DW News

Summary

Sora，由OpenAI开发的最新工具，能够根据简单的文本提示生成逼真的视频。尽管其技术令人印象深刻，但仍存在对Sora可能带来的潜在问题的担忧。专家Daniel Aria讨论了AI生成内容的挑战，包括如何辨别真假以及AI对民主和经济的潜在影响。他强调了公众意识、政府适应新技术以及考虑未来经济结构的重要性。

Takeaways

• 🚀 Sora 是由开发了开创性聊天机器人 ChatGPT 的公司发布的最新工具，能够根据简单的文本提示创建逼真的视频。
• 🤖 尽管 Sora 的视频生成能力令人印象深刻，但 OpenAI 承认该程序仍有缺陷，例如在理解物理定律和场景中光线变化方面。
• 🔍 Sora 和其他 AI 视频生成器的快速发展可能会对社会、政治和个人层面产生深远影响，使得区分真实与虚假变得更加困难。
• 🛡️ OpenAI 对 Sora 可能带来的风险感到担忧，因此在确保有安全措施之前不会发布该程序。
• 🌐 专家 Daniel Aria 认为，随着技术的发展，我们正在进入一个难以信任任何事物的新时代，包括可爱的小狗视频。
• 🔍 目前，通过观察视频中的细节（如雪花）和基本物理规律，可以识别出 AI 生成的图像，但随着技术的进步，这些方法可能很快就会失效。
• 🤔 对于非专家来说，识别 AI 生成的图像和视频的可靠方法尚不明确，但提高公众对这些技术的认识是关键。
• 🗳️ AI 对民主构成威胁，因为技术发展迅速，而立法机构在制定相关法规方面行动缓慢。
• 📈 AI 预计将在未来几年为全球经济增加数万亿美元，但同时也可能导致许多人失业。
• 🏆 在这场技术发展中，企业（如 Microsoft）和新兴软件公司可能会成为赢家，而那些失去工作的人则可能成为输家。
• 🌟 我们需要考虑一个不是每个人都在全力工作的经济体系，并探索如普遍基本收入（UBI）等其他应对策略。

Q & A

Sora是什么？

Sora是由OpenAI公司开发的最新工具，它可以根据简单的文本提示创建逼真的视频。

Sora在技术上有哪些局限性？

Sora在理解物理定律和处理移动场景中的光线变化方面还不够完善。

OpenAI为什么担心Sora可能带来的风险？

OpenAI担心Sora可能被用于生成深度伪造视频，这在政治、社会和个人层面上可能造成混乱，使得人们难以区分真实与虚假。

目前有哪些方法可以识别AI生成的视频？

目前可以通过观察视频中的细节，如雪花效果和基本物理规律的准确性来识别AI生成的视频。

AI技术的进步速度如何？

AI技术正在以指数级的速度进步，这意味着未来可能很难用现有方法来识别AI生成的内容。

普通消费者如何提高对AI生成内容的警觉性？

消费者需要提高对媒体来源的警觉性，意识到视频内容可能不是真实的，并等待更先进的鉴定工具的出现。

AI对民主政治构成的威胁有多大？

AI技术可能会加剧民主政治面临的挑战，因为技术发展速度快于立法和监管的更新。

政府应如何适应AI技术的发展？

政府需要更快地采纳AI和软件技术，提高效率，更好地理解和管理技术变革。

AI技术将如何影响全球经济？

预计AI技术将在未来几年为全球经济增加数万亿美元的价值。

AI技术的发展将带来哪些赢家和输家？

企业和技术公司可能是赢家，而那些因自动化而失去工作的人可能是输家。

我们应该如何考虑未来的经济结构？

我们应该考虑一个不是每个人都在全力工作的经济结构，可能需要探索如无条件基本收入等新的经济模型。

Outlines

00:00

🤖 人工智能的新突破：Sora视频生成工具

Sora是由开发了开创性聊天机器人Chat GPT的公司推出的最新工具，它能够根据简单的文本提示生成逼真的视频。然而，人们对Sora可能带来的影响表示担忧。视频中的小狗并不存在，这是由Sora这个由OpenAI开发的新文本到视频生成器所创造的。尽管Sora在技术上取得了显著进步，但公司承认该程序仍有缺陷，例如在理解物理法则和场景中光线变化方面。随着这些算法的快速学习，它们可能会在政治、社会和个人层面上造成混乱，使得真假难辨。OpenAI对Sora可能带来的风险表示担忧，因此在确保有安全措施之前不会发布该程序。专家Daniel Aria讨论了我们是否正朝着一个无法信任任何事物的世界前进，包括可爱的小狗视频。他提出了一些解决方案，如政府要求合法性验证、开发认证工具和提高公众对视频来源的批判性意识。他还提到，随着技术的进步，未来可能很难用现有方法来识别AI生成的图像。

05:00

🌐 民主与AI：技术进步对政治的影响

Daniel Aria讨论了民主在面对AI等技术挑战时的脆弱性。他认为，尽管民主面临许多挑战，但AI是其中之一。他指出，政府在采纳和利用AI技术方面行动迟缓，而技术的发展速度却在加快。Aria建议政府需要更快地适应变化，更有效地理解和利用AI技术。他还提到，AI预计将在未来几年为全球经济增加数万亿美元的价值。在讨论中，Aria提到了AI技术对就业市场的影响，以及我们需要考虑一个不是每个人都在全力工作的经济体系。他强调，我们需要考虑新的经济模式，如普遍基本收入等，以应对AI带来的变化。

Keywords

💡人工智能

人工智能是指由人制造出来的系统所表现出来的智能行为。在视频中，人工智能被用来生成逼真的视频内容，这是技术进步的一个体现。例如，Sora这个工具可以根据简单的文本提示创建视频。

💡Sora

Sora是由OpenAI公司开发的一种文本到视频生成器。它能够根据用户的文本提示生成视频，这是人工智能在视频生成领域的最新进展。视频中提到Sora能够根据文本提示生成艺术画廊游览的视频。

💡Deepfake

Deepfake是一种利用深度学习技术生成或修改视频内容的方法，可以使视频中的人物做出他们实际上没有做过的动作或表情。视频中提到，像Sora这样的技术可能会产生deepfake，对社会造成影响。

💡物理法则

物理法则是指自然界中物质和能量相互作用的基本规律。在视频中，提到AI视频生成器需要理解和应用物理法则，比如光线在移动场景中的变化，而Sora在这方面还有待提高。

💡民主

民主是一种政治制度，强调人民拥有决定国家事务的权力。视频中讨论了AI技术对民主可能构成的威胁，尤其是在信息传播和选举过程中。

💡技术监管

技术监管是指政府或其他机构对技术发展和应用进行的管理和控制。视频中提到，为了应对AI带来的挑战，需要制定相应的法规和技术标准。

💡经济影响

经济影响指的是某一事件或变化对经济体系产生的效果。视频中提到AI技术预计会在未来几年为全球经济增加数万亿美元的价值，但同时也可能导致许多人失业。

💡自动化

自动化是指用机器或计算机系统代替人工执行任务的过程。视频中提到AI作为一种自动化技术，可能会导致许多人失去工作，需要考虑未来的经济结构。

💡信息真实性

信息真实性是指信息内容的准确性和可靠性。视频中讨论了如何辨别AI生成的图像和视频的真伪，以及这对于维护信息真实性的重要性。

💡技术进步

技术进步是指科学技术的发展和创新，通常带来效率的提升和新的可能性。视频中提到AI技术的进步速度非常快，这对社会和个人都提出了新的挑战。

Highlights

Sora是OpenAI发布的最新工具，能够根据简单的文本提示创建逼真的视频。

Sora的视频生成能力相较于一年前的AI视频有了巨大提升。

尽管Sora在技术上取得了进步，但OpenAI承认该程序仍有缺陷，例如在物理法则和动态场景的光照变化理解上。

OpenAI对Sora可能带来的风险表示担忧，因此不会在没有安全措施的情况下发布该程序。

深度伪造视频已经出现在公共领域，可能会在政治、社会和个人层面造成混乱。

专家Daniel Aria讨论了我们是否正走向一个无法信任任何事物的世界。

目前，通过观察视频中的细节，如雪花，可以识别AI生成的图像。

Aria指出，随着技术的进步，未来可能很难用现有方法识别AI生成的视频。

Aria认为，我们正在进入一个新的时代，技术变得民主化，政府和国家将难以限制其使用。

Aria建议政府需要更快地适应技术变革，以更有效地管理和监管技术。

AI预计在未来几年将为全球经济增加数万亿美元。

AI的发展将对电影行业产生巨大影响，为新软件公司提供颠覆旧市场的机会。

AI作为一种自动化技术，可能会导致许多人失业。

我们需要考虑一个不是每个人都在全力工作的经济体系。

Aria强调，公民需要提高对媒体真实性的警觉。

AI对民主构成威胁，但民主体制在适应技术变革方面行动缓慢。

Aria提出，政府需要更有效地利用AI和软件技术，以适应即将到来的变化。

Aria认为，尽管AI带来了挑战，但并非无解，关键在于公民的参与和意识。

Transcripts

and now to what's being touted as

another giant leap in artificial

intelligence Sora is the latest tool

released by the company behind the

groundbreaking chatbot chat GPT it can

create realistic looking videos based on

a simple text prompt but there are

concerns about what Sora could

unleash these puppies don't exist the

video was generated by an artificial

intelligence algorithm namely Sora the

new text to video gen generator from

open

AI a year ago the best AI videos were

like this rather confusing beer

commercial now open AI says Sora can

create Clips like this from a user text

prompt a brief written instruction of

what to

show this the company says was created

from The

Prompt tour of an art gallery with many

beautiful works of art in different

styles

but as spectacular as many examples on

sora's homepage might seem open AI

admits the program still has some

flaws AI video generators need to apply

the laws of physics and understand how

lighting changes in a moving scene for

example and Sora doesn't get all of that

just

yet but as the world is discovering with

text and image generators these

algorithms learn fast some deep fakes

like this one created with mind Journey

are already creeping into the public

domain they could be very disruptive

politically socially and personally

making it very difficult to determine

what's real and what's

not open AI is so concerned about the

dangers Sora could pose it's not

releasing the program until it has

safeguards in

place

Daniel Aria is a senior fellow at the

center for international governance

Innovation and an expert on artificial

intelligence Daniel welcome are we

heading toward a world where we can't

trust anything not even videos of cute

little

puppies I mean I think unfortunately

that's where we're at now we can you

know government can mandate certain uh

requirements to make sure that these

images are legitimate we can develop

authentication tools we can you know

develop a more critical awareness for

how videos are distributed where they're

made there's a lot we can apply but I

think the fact of the matter is that

we're entering a new era when in which

this kind of Technology becomes

widespread it's democratizing and I

think the more people that are involved

in creating and crafting these

Technologies the more they spread

through social media the more impossible

it'll be for states or governments to

constrain and limit how they're used so

it it is a very difficult problem we're

facing for all of us non-experts out

there who you know don't want to be

fooled are there any reliable tricks to

identifying AI generated images to tell

real from

fake um I mean so far if you look at

even the videos of Sor right now you can

see some issues around the snowflakes

for for example those puppies or you can

look at the basic physics that are de

deployed but I mean these Technologies

are improving a Leaps and Bounds we're

looking at an s-curve or exponential

shift and how these these tools improve

and so I think whatever we did today if

we use forensic analysis or we started

to reverse engineer how these videos

were constructed down the road a year or

two it'll be impossible to use those

same methods so I think it's a it's a

difficult conundrum we're facing that's

have to say it's not resolvable and I

don't mean to be pessimistic I think

that it's just a new phase in modernity

and it's something that is challenging

but not impossible to solve part of it

is just the agency of the people our

citizens and our uh the people

themselves who are consuming the media

they have to be made aware of the fact

that this video may not be real and

until we get there uh I want to take a

closer look at the political impact with

you because we're in the middle of the

biggest election year in history how big

of a threat do you think AI poses to

democracy I mean I think democracy faces

a lot of challenges right now I think AI

is one of those things but um there's no

doubt that democracies are in some

respects moving too slowly technology

has is accelerating in its Pace our

legisl legislators are slowly trying to

resolve these issues around regulation

but I don't think that in and of itself

will will do the job the anal analog I

always used is that you know parliaments

are like uh coders and so they're trying

to write out the the legislation that

can manage this shift the fact of the

matter is that you know coding is

disappearing as a profession so

some there something has to be done with

regard to how democracies function and

how they operate in terms of

constraining and man managing and

regulating technology what would your

suggestion be when it comes to

safeguards that need to be put in place

to prevent this from creating complete

and utter

chaos well I don't know if it's going to

create create complete other chaos but I

think people are losing faith in our

institutions

and that's not without good reason but

the fact is that we as a uh a thriving

civilization are dealing with changes

that we've never seen before and the

consequence of those changes is that we

need to begin to deploy Tools in

government government tends to be one of

the more resistant domains to uptake in

terms of leveraging these Technologies

and I think you know by that I mean Ai

and software and I think government has

to move faster it has to be much more

effective much more efficient at

understanding that the change is ahead

rather than always playing catchup and

AI is predicted to add trillions of

dollars to the global economy in the

next couple of years um just to wrap up

who will be the winners and losers of

this

development I mean obviously the

corporations are going to do well

Microsoft is going to has a hefty prize

in open AI um I think there's room for

uh startups new software companies that

will disrupt old markets if you look at

the film industry for example there's a

huge opportunity to disrupt how films

are made and I think there's room for

Young Smart hungry people to become

involved in developing uh new software

platforms um having said that AI is also

an automating technology and so lots of

people will lose their jobs

unfortunately and so I think we have to

start to consider what our economy looks

like when people fall out of it I think

that's happening already and I think

that as we begin to wrap our heads

around where this is going we should

start thinking about experiments and I

don't just mean Ubi I mean there's other

approaches to this but I do mean think

about a an economy in which not

everybody's working at full capacity

that's something we should need to

consider I feel like we'll bring you in

more often to have you explained this

Brave New World to us that was Daniel

Aria with the center for international

governance and Innovation thank you so

much thank

you