Fordham Says American Electorate Is Exhausted
Summary
TLDRThe discussion revolves around voter apathy towards the leading candidates in an upcoming U.S. election, highlighting concerns over potentially low voter turnout and its implications. Global investors view a Trump return as a significant risk, contrasting an electorate disillusioned with political choices. Despite economic achievements, Biden's administration struggles to resonate with voters amid challenges of inflation and economic messaging. The conversation touches on the unpredictability of election outcomes, the potential for political unrest, and the critical impact of the election on U.S. and global politics, emphasizing the unprecedented variables and complexities facing pollsters and the electorate.
Takeaways
- 🔴 The scenario presents two unpopular candidates, raising concerns about potentially low voter turnout and its impact on the election outcome.
- 🌍 Global investors view the U.S. election outcome as a significant risk, with a Trump return to the White House seen as a major concern outside the U.S.
- 🚫 The American electorate is described as politically exhausted and unenthusiastic about the available options, affecting voter engagement.
- 📈 Bloomberg's survey of swing state voters suggests concerns over Biden's age and indicates a lean towards Trump, highlighting the challenges Biden faces to replicate his 2020 success.
- 📊 Pollsters face a difficult task due to numerous variables and an electorate overwhelmed by choices and current issues like inflation.
- 🛡️ Every legal development seems to strengthen Trump's base, emphasizing the polarized nature of the electorate.
- 💰 Despite a strong economy and job market, there's a communication gap between the Biden administration's economic achievements and public perception.
- 💵 The usual economic indicators that favor incumbents don't seem to bolster Biden's position, hinting at unique political dynamics in the U.S.
- 🔥 There's an anticipation of a competitive election, with unpredictable outcomes and the potential for disputes that could delay results.
- 🛢️ A concern exists about a backlash against the election outcome and the stability of American institutions in resolving election disputes.
Q & A
What is considered the number one risk by global investors in relation to U.S. elections?
-A return of Trump to the White House is perceived as the number one risk outside the U.S.
How do swing state voters perceive Biden according to a Bloomberg survey?
-Swing state voters believe Biden is too old, and the swing states were leaning toward Trump.
What is causing American voters to be underwhelmed by their choices in the upcoming election?
-American voters are exhausted by politics and unenthusiastic about the candidates on offer.
What challenges do pollsters face in the current political climate?
-Pollsters have a difficult job because there have never been so many variables in play, making it hard to produce accurate polling projections.
How is Donald Trump's legal situation described in terms of his political future?
-Donald Trump is described as equally likely to end up in jail as in the White House, indicating the uncertain impact of his legal challenges on his political career.
What is the irony of the situation as described in the transcript?
-The irony is that despite the perceived risks and voter exhaustion, the outcome of the U.S. elections is still the number one risk for global investors.
How does the Biden administration's messaging on the economy seem to be received by the electorate?
-The Biden administration's messaging on the economy is not being translated as successfully as it could be, suggesting a disconnect between the administration's achievements and voter perception.
What is unique about American expectations of the executive branch in relation to inflation and unemployment?
-In the U.S., there is an unusual expectation for the executive branch to control inflation and unemployment rates, a role typically not expected of executive branches in other developed countries.
How might the narrative around Biden's control of the economic message change as the election approaches?
-The narrative might change as people start paying more attention closer to the election, potentially allowing Biden to better convey his economic successes.
What potential risks are associated with the election outcome according to the transcript?
-The risks include uncertainty, the possibility of multiple recounts, and a material risk of events similar to the attack on the Capitol, reflecting concerns over a disputed or contentious election outcome.
Outlines
🗳️ Voter Apathy and Election Predictions
This segment highlights concerns over potentially low voter turnout due to the unpopularity of both main candidates, perceived as detrimental to Trump in comparison to Biden. It delves into the irony where, despite American voters feeling overwhelmed and unenthusiastic about their options, the outcome of the U.S. election remains a critical risk, especially with Trump's potential return being viewed as a significant concern outside the U.S. A Bloomberg survey points out Biden's age as a factor, showing swing states' inclination towards Trump. The discussion raises questions about Biden's ability to appeal to voters, the challenging job for pollsters amidst numerous variables, and the paradoxical position of Trump as both a favored candidate and a potential convict. The narrative touches on how voter exhaustion, focus on inflation rather than political debates, and economic perceptions could influence electoral participation and decisions.
🏛️ Election Outcomes and Market Reactions
This part discusses the potential backlash against election outcomes and emphasizes the resilience of American institutions amidst controversies, as exemplified by the minimal market impact following the January 6 events. It conveys concerns over Trump fleeing the U.S. to avoid extradition post-election loss, reflecting on private discussions among political insiders about the unprecedented number of variables affecting polling projections and the likelihood of disputed outcomes. The narrative suggests that those awaiting a clear signal from the November elections for investment decisions should brace for a prolonged period of uncertainty, hinting at the complexities involved in predicting and responding to the political climate surrounding U.S. elections.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Voter Turnout
💡Inflection Point
💡Swing States
💡Political Quotient
💡Economic Success
💡Inflation
💡January 6 Events
💡Executive Branch
💡Gas Prices
💡Uncertainty and Recounts
Highlights
The American public don't want the two candidates (Trump and Biden) on offer, raising concerns about materially lower voter turnout and potential risks for Trump relative to Biden.
The outcome of the U.S. elections is perceived as the number one risk by global investors, with a return of Trump to the White House seen as the biggest risk outside the U.S.
The American electorate is exhausted by politics and unenthusiastic about the candidates, making it difficult for campaigners due to various variables and uncertainties.
Trump is considered the bookies' favorite, but there's also a likelihood of him ending up in jail rather than in the White House.
Voters are primarily focused on inflation, and their choice of whether to vote or not in a race they're not feeling is a significant question.
Despite a great economy and job availability, the Biden administration has struggled to successfully translate that message to the electorate and convince them of their economic success.
While economic metrics like unemployment and growth rates should favor the incumbent (Biden), it's not the case, possibly due to the inflation shock having dramatic political effects in the U.S.
The narrative may change as the election approaches, with Americans starting to think about it closer to September, and factors like gas prices impacting their perceptions.
The election is more competitive than it appears at this point, and Biden's chances of winning are not guaranteed.
There's a high likelihood of disputed outcomes and recounts, potentially dragging out the conclusion beyond November 6th, and requiring investments or transactions to plan for a longer timeline before resolution.
A backlash against the outcome of the elections is almost inevitable at some scale, though markets did not blink with the January 6 events, indicating a prevailing sense that American institutions will resolve any difficulties.
There's speculation that Trump may need to leave the U.S. if he loses, to avoid extradition, as mentioned by a senior Democrat at a private event.
There have never been so many variables at play in producing polling projections and weighing the factors, making it challenging to forecast the outcome accurately.
The stakes are high, with the American electorate exhausted by politics and unenthusiastic about the candidates on offer.
The Biden administration's challenge is to convince the electorate that they have delivered economic success, despite indicators like low unemployment and job availability.
Transcripts
WE HAVE TWO CANDIDATES THE AMERICAN PUBLIC DON'T WANT TO.
WHAT GOES THROUGH MY MIND IS WHAT IS THE RISK OF A
MATERIALLY LOWER VOTER TURNOUT IN THAT SCENARIO?
THIS COULD BE INJURIOUS TO TRUMP RELATIVE TO BIDEN.
TINA: THAT IS THE IRONY OF THE SITUATION.
I CALLED THE INFLECTION POINT. TALKING TO GLOBAL INVESTORS,
THE OUTCOME OF THE U.S. ELECTIONS IS THE NUMBER ONE
RISK. AND A RETURN OF TRUMP TO THE
WHITE HOUSE IS PERCEIVED AS THE NUMBER ONE RISK OUTSIDE THE
U.S.. THE STAKES ARE HIGH. YOU HAVE AN AMERICAN ELECTORATE
WHICH IS EXHAUSTED BY POLITICS AND UNENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT WHAT
IS ON OFFER. DANI:
WITH BIDEN, BLOOMBERG SURVEYED SWING STATE VOTERS AND THEY
SAID HE IS TOO OLD AND SWING STATES WERE LEANING TOWARD
TRUMP. YOU HAD DIALOGUE OVER ISRAEL.
IF BIDEN WANTS TO REPEAT 20/20, HOW DIFFICULT WILL THAT BE FOR
HIM? TINA: LET'S REMEMBER A FEW THINGS.
I CALL THIS YOUR POLITICAL QUOTIENT.
THIS EARLY IN THE RACE, AMERICANS HAVE NOT MADE UP
THEIR MINDS.
THEY ARE UNDERWHELMED BY THE CHOICES.
POSTERS HAVE A DIFFICULT JOB BEFORE THEM BECAUSE THEY'RE
NEVER HAVE BEEN SO MANY VARIABLES.
YOU HAVE A CANDIDATE IN DONALD TRUMP WHO IS THE BOOKIES'
FAVORITE AND IS LIKELY TO END UP IN JAIL AS IN THE WHITE
HOUSE.
WHEN YOU HAVE EXHAUSTED, OVERWHELMED VOTERS FOCUSING ON
INFLATION, ACCORDING TO WHAT THE SURVEY DATA TELLS US, LESS
SO ON THE POINTS YOU MENTIONED, HOW THEY CHOOSE AND IF THEY
BOTHER TO TURN UP IN A RACE WHERE THEY ARE NOT FEELING IT
IS A BIG QUESTION. MANUS:
YOU HIT ON A MYRIAD OF POINTS. EVERY TIME SOMETHING HAPPENS IN
COURT, IT SEEMS TO EMBOLDEN HIS BASE.
JUST LEAVE THAT FOR A MOMENT. YOU TALK ABOUT AN ELECTORATE
THAT DOES NOT FEEL IT. THERE IS A GREAT ECONOMY OUT
THERE AT THE MOMENT. PEOPLE HAVE JOBS.
THAT MESSAGE IS NOT SUCCESSFULLY BEING TRANSLATED
OR AS SUCCESSFULLY AS IT COULD BE TRANSLATED BY THE BIDEN
ADMINISTRATION. WHAT DO THEY NEED TO DO TO
CONVINCE THE ELECTORATE THAT THEY HAVE DELIVERED ECONOMIC
SUCCESS? IS TALKING ABOUT TAX RISES IN
THE STATE OF THE UNION GOING TO DO THAT? TINA:
IT IS AN UNUSUAL STATE OF AFFAIRS BECAUSE THE METRIC
POSTERS USUALLY USE WHEN OUTLINING WHAT PROSPECTS ARE IS
UNEMPLOYMENT, GROWTH RATES, AND EVERYTHING IN THAT RESPECT
SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE INCUMBENT.
IT SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF BIDEN, YET IT IS NOT.
I WOULD BRING IT BACK MAYBE THE OUTLOOK FOR THE FED, WHERE IN
ECONOMIC CIRCLES THERE IS A LOT OF TALK ABOUT MAYBE ONE OF THE
BIG LESSONS FROM THIS RECOVERY IS THAT KEEPING UNEMPLOYMENT AT
RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS BUT WITH THE INFLATION SHOCK SEEMS TO
HAVE DRAMATIC POLITICAL EFFECTS, ALTHOUGH I THINK THIS
IS A PARTICULARLY AMERICAN PHENOMENON.
IN OTHER DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, THEY DO NOT EXPECT THE
EXECUTIVE BRANCH TO BE SITTING INTEREST RATES AND CONTROLLING
PRICE RISES. THAT IS WHAT THE CHINESE
COMMUNIST PARTY DOES, IT CONTROLS PRICES. DANI:
DOES THAT MEAN ANY HOPES OF BIDEN TAKING CONTROL OF THE
ECONOMIC MESSAGE IS NOT THERE? TINA: I THINK THE NARRATIVE WILL
CHANGE.
IN EVERY ELECTION, AS YOU GET CLOSER, PEOPLE DO NOT START
THINKING ABOUT THIS UNTIL SEPTEMBER.
WE ARE THINKING ABOUT IT. THE REST OF THE WORLD'S
THINKING ABOUT IT. PUTIN AND NETANYAHU ARE
THINKING THEY MIGHT GET A BETTER DEAL WITH ANOTHER
OCCUPANT IN THE WHITE HOUSE. AMERICANS ARE GOING TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS WITH GAS PRICES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE LAG,
LONGER THAN INVESTORS APPRECIATE, BEFORE PEOPLE FEEL
BETTER ABOUT THINGS. AND DOES NOT MEAN BIDEN WILL
WIN. I THINK THIS IS MORE COMPETITIVE THAN IT LOOKS AT
THIS POINT. MANUS: YOU WARNED OF UNCERTAINTY ,
MULTIPLE RECOUNTS. YOU WARNED YOU WARNED TO NOT
ASSUME VICTORY FOR BIDEN IF IT COMES THROUGH IN THAT WAY.
DO INVESTORS CONCERN THEMSELVES THAT YOU COULD HAVE A RERUN OF
THE KIND OF TACK ON THE CAPITAL WE HAD PREVIOUSLY?
IS THAT A MATERIAL RISK? WHAT WOULD THAT DO TO AMERICA?
TINA: BACKLASH AGAINST THE OUTCOME OF
THE ELECTIONS IS ALMOST INEVITABLE AT SOME SCALE.
MARKETS DID NOT BLINK WITH THE JANUARY 6 EVENTS, WHICH IS
REMARKABLE. IT WAS STILL SHOCKING, BUT
THERE WAS LITTLE IMPACT. THERE IS STILL A PREVENTING
SENSE THAT AMERICAN INSTITUTIONS WILL RESOLVE ANY
DIFFICULTY, BUT I TALKED TO ONE ALL PLACED SENIOR DEMOCRAT AT A
PRIVATE EVENT LAST NIGHT WHO SAID THEY THINK TRUMP WILL GET
ON A PLANE IF HE LOSES BECAUSE HE NEEDS TO GO SOMEWHERE WHERE
THERE IS NO U.S. EXPEDITION TREATY.
THESE ARE JUST WHAT PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT, NOT MY FORECAST,
BUT THERE HAVE NEVER BEEN SO MANY VARIABLES AT PLAY IN TERMS
OF PRODUCING POLLING PROJECTIONS AND WAITING THE
VARIABLES AND A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF DISPUTED OUTCOMES AT LEAST
DRAGGING OUT A CONCLUSION. WHAT I'M SAYING IS IF YOU ARE
HOLDING UP YOUR TRANSACTION OR OTHER KINDS OF INVESTMENTS
BECAUSE YOU ARE WAITING FOR A SIGNAL ON NOVEMBER 6 AFTER U.S.
ELECTIONS, BETTER PLAN ON A LONGER TIMER, AS IN BEFORE THE
RESOLUTION.
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