Hedge Funds Dumping, But Is This the Perfect Setup?
Summary
TLDRDer heutige Finanzmarkt zeigt eine Abnahme vor der Rede von Jackson Hall. Handelt es sich um einen Anstieg zu neuen Rekordhöhen oder um einen plötzlichen Rückgang? Der Olpreis hat sich erholt, und Samsung Sila hat einen Durchbruch erzielt. Die Aktienmärkte erwarten große Bewegungen, und die Rede von J. Pal könnte die Richtung bestimmen. Die Wichtigkeit der Zinspolitik und die Auswirkungen auf Währung, Rohstoffe und Technologieaktien werden diskutiert, während der Fokus auch auf den wirtschaftlichen Hintergrund und die langfristigen Auswirkungen liegt.
Takeaways
- 📉 Aktienmarkt ist vor der Rede von Jackson Hall im Abwärtsgang – es wird diskutiert, ob wir neue Rekordhöhen erreichen oder ob es zu einem plötzlichen Marktrückgang kommt.
- 🕯️ Ein 'bearish engulfing candle' auf dem Aktienmarkt deutet auf einen möglichen Trendwechsel hin, da der Markt nach oben geöffnet wurde, aber unter dem vorherigen Tiefenstand geschlossen wurde.
- 📊 Gewerkschaftsdaten zeigen, dass große Technologieunternehmen wie NVIDIA und Tesla stark zurückgegangen sind, was auf eine Schwächung des Sektors hindeutet.
- 💬 Die Rede von Jackson Hole ist eine historische Gelegenheit für die FED, um Weisungen für ihre zukünftige Geldpolitik zu geben, und wird heftige Marktreaktionen hervorrufen.
- 🔄 Die FED hat seit Juli letzten Jahres keine Aktionen mehr ergriffen – die Märkte erwarten, dass sie in naher Zukunft mit der Senkung der Zinssätze beginnen wird.
- 🗳️ Es wird erwartet, dass die FED vor den Wahlen keine 'Rug Pull' durchführt und stattdessen eine moderate Sprache einnimmt, um den Markt nicht zu beeinflussen.
- 📈 Einige Analysten sind der Meinung, dass die FED zu sehr auf Daten angewiesen ist und eine vorbeugende Zinssenkung vor einer möglichen Rezession durchführen sollte.
- 💰 Die heutige Wirtschaft hat viel Bargeld, das aufgrund von COVID-19 von der Regierung geschaffen wurde, was zu einer erhöhten Attraktivität für Dividendenaktien führen könnte.
- 🏘️ Die US-amerikanische Immobilienmarktrückt sich nach oben, während der kanadische und australische Markt als überbewertet angesehen wird.
- 📊 Die Inflation ist in den Bereichen für Verpflegung und Bedarfsartikeln noch hoch, während der Diskrepanzanteil gesunken ist, was auf eine Kürzung der Verbraucherausgaben hinweist.
- 📈 Die Aktien der 'Mega cap Tech'-Firmen haben in diesem Quartal weniger als der Rest des S&P 500 aufgeholt, was auf eine Rotation in den Märkten hindeutet.
Q & A
Was ist der Hauptinhalt des heutigen Finanzmarktberichts?
-Der Bericht konzentriert sich auf die bevorstehenden Aktionen der Federal Reserve, die Auswirkungen auf den Aktienmarkt, die Aussage von Jackson Hall und die mögliche Reaktion des Marktes auf die bevorstehende Geldpolitik.
Was ist ein 'bearish engulfing candle' und warum ist es wichtig?
-Ein 'bearish engulfing candle' ist ein technisches Analysemuster, das auf einem Gap nach oben beginnt, dann unter den Low des vorherigen Tages endet. Es wird oft als Zeichen für einen bevorstehenden Marktrückgang interpretiert.
Was könnte die Rede von Jackson Hall bedeuten für die Geldpolitik?
-Jackson Hall nutzt traditionell seine Rede zur Jackson Hole-Konferenz, um die Geldpolitik der Federal Reserve zu diskutieren. Dies könnte neue Weichen für die Zinssenkungen oder -erhöhungen geben.
Was sind die Auswirkungen eines 'bearish engulfing candle' auf den S&P 500 in der Vergangenheit?
-Historisch hat ein 'bearish engulfing candle' oft zu einem Rückgang des S&P 500 geführt, wie im Mai, April und Juli des letzten Jahres beobachtet wurde.
Wie könnte die bevorstehende Rede von Jackson Hall den Aktienmarkt beeinflussen?
-Die Rede könnte den Markt beeinflussen, je nachdem, ob Jackson Hall Signale für eine lockerere oder strengere Geldpolitik gibt, was die Zinsen senken oder erhöhen könnte.
Was sind die Erwartungen für die Reaktion des Marktes auf die Rede von Jackson Hall?
-Der Markt erwartet, dass die Rede von Jackson Hall Weichen für die zukünftige Geldpolitik geben wird. Eine moderate Sprache könnte den Markt beruhigen, während eine zu lockere oder strenge Haltung zu Schwankungen führen kann.
Was ist der aktuelle Stand des VIX-Index und was bedeuten die Zahlen?
-Der VIX-Index liegt aktuell bei 17,5, was auf eine steigende Marktvolatilität hindeutet. Er ist im Vergleich zum Anfang der Woche, als er bei etwa 14 lag, gestiegen.
Wie wirkt sich die Aussage von Jackson Hall möglicherweise auf die Währung und den Rohstoffsektor aus?
-Eine moderate oder lockere Haltung von Jackson Hall könnte zu einer Schwächung des US-Dollar führen, was wiederum den Rohstoffsektor, insbesondere Gold und Silber, positiv beeinflussen könnte.
Was ist der Einfluss des bevorstehenden FED-Schnittstellens auf Anleger mit Bargeld?
-Für Anleger mit Bargeld könnte es sinnvoll sein, Zinsen von bis zu 5% für so lange wie möglich zu sichern, da mit einer Zinssenkung durch die FED rechnet.
Was bedeuten die aktuellen Rohstoffpreise und die FED-Politik für die langfristigen Investoren?
-Für langfristige Investoren könnten Rohstoffe wie Gold und Silber, die mit dem US-Dollar korrelieren, attraktive Optionen sein, insbesondere wenn mit einer weiteren Erweiterung des US-Dollar-Vorrats durch die FED gerechnet wird.
Outlines
📉 Aktienrückgang und Vorhersagen für zukünftige Marktbewegungen
Dieser Absatz behandelt den aktuellen Rückgang der Aktienmärkte und analysiert, ob wir zu neuen Rekordhöhen aufbrechen oder einen 'Rug Pull' bevorstehen. Es wird auf die historischen Auswirkungen von 'bearish engulfing candles' eingegangen, die auf dem S&P 500 beobachtet wurden, und wie diese in der Vergangenheit zu Marktrückgängen geführt haben. Es wird auch auf die Bedeutung der Rede von Jackson Hole hingewiesen, die für die zukünftige monetäre Politik als Leitlinie dienen könnte. Der Absatz erwähnt auch die Schwächung bestimmter Sektoren, wie z.B. der Energiesektor, und die Aktivitäten von Insidern und Hedgefonds in bestimmten Aktien, insbesondere NVIDIA und Tesla.
📈 Analyse der Marktvolatilität und der Bedeutung von Jackson Hole
Dieser Absatz konzentriert sich auf die Volatilität im Aktienmarkt und die Erwartungen vor der Rede von Jay Powell auf der Jackson Hole Konferenz. Es wird diskutiert, wie die Märkte auf die Aussagen reagieren könnten und welche Auswirkungen verschiedene Standpunkte von Powell - entweder dovisch oder hawkisch - auf die Märkte haben könnten. Es wird auch auf die historische Tendenz eingegangen, dass der Markt nach der Konferenz positiv reagiert, aber auch die Möglichkeit besteht, dass er stark schwankt. Des Weiteren werden die langfristigen Auswirkungen von Zinssenkungen auf den Aktienmarkt und die Bedenken hinsichtlich der wirtschaftlichen Indikatoren diskutiert.
🏢 Wirtschaftliche Analyse und Vorhersagen für Immobilienmärkte
In diesem Absatz werden verschiedene wirtschaftliche Aspekte diskutiert, einschließlich der Relevanz von Zinssänkungen für Sparer und Gläubiger, der Auswirkungen von Steuern auf die Wirtschaft und die Rolle der Regierung bei der Einführung neuer Steuern. Es wird auch auf die Entwicklung des US-Dollar und seine Bedeutung für globale Investoren eingegangen. Der Absatz schließt mit einer Diskussion über die Rolle von Immobilienmärkten in verschiedenen Ländern und wie sie sich in den letzten Jahrzehnten entwickelt haben, insbesondere in Bezug auf Preisentwicklungen und Schulden.
📊 Technischer Marktanalyse und Einblicke in Hedge-Fund-Aktivitäten
Dieser Absatz bietet eine technische Analyse des Aktienmarktes und der verschiedenen Sektoren, insbesondere der Technologiesektor, und wie sie sich im Vergleich zu anderen Teilen des Marktes verhalten. Es werden Daten und Forschung von Goldman Sachs zur Hedge-Fund-Aktivität diskutiert, einschließlich ihrer Verkäufe von Aktien, insbesondere in der Technologiebranche, und wie sie sich zu High-Dividend-Aktien wie Energie, Versorgungsunternehmen und Rats neigen. Der Absatz schließt mit einer Diskussion über die Bedeutung von Unternehmensinsider-Verkäufen und die Auswirkungen auf den Markt.
📈 Zoom-Analyse und Vorhersagen für zukünftige Marktbewegungen
In diesem letzten Absatz wird der Fokus auf die Zoom-Video-Aktie gelegt, die aufgrund besserer als erwarteter Ergebnisse und einer Anhebung der Umsatzprognose für das nächste Finanzjahr an Wert gewonnen hat. Es wird auf die langfristigen Trends und die Beurteilung der Fairness des Unternehmenswertes eingegangen, sowie auf die Bedeutung von Contrarian-Signalen, insbesondere in Bezug auf die Aktionen von Investoren wie Kathy Wood. Der Absatz schließt mit einer Vorhersage für die Reaktion des Marktes auf die bevorstehende Rede von Jay Powell und die möglichen Auswirkungen auf verschiedene Finanzinstrumente.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bearish engulfing candle
💡Jackson Hole speech
💡Volatility
💡Mega cap Tech
💡Insiders selling
💡Fed's monetary policy
💡Easing cycle
💡Rug pull
💡Semi conductor ETF
💡Silver and gold
💡Zoom video
Highlights
Stocks are lower ahead of Jackson Hole, with anticipation of a potential market impact from the speech.
A bearish engulfing candle pattern appeared, historically indicating pullbacks in the market.
Market sectors like industrials, financials, and defensive sectors remain above their 5-day moving average despite overall weakness.
Mega cap tech stocks, including NVIDIA, saw significant pullbacks, with NVIDIA dropping 3.7%.
Tesla's stock price fell by 5%, contributing to the selloff in semis and mega cap tech.
Thursdays have been the most bullish days this year, with an annualized return of 46%.
Expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy guidance are high, with markets on edge for any hints from the Jackson Hole speech.
Historically, the S&P 500 has shown significant volatility post-Jackson Hole speeches, with potential for large market movements.
The Federal Reserve has been on hold for over a year, and the market is anticipating action on interest rates.
There is speculation about the potential for a 50 basis point rate cut to excite the market.
The possibility of the Federal Reserve staying on hold could lead to a 'rug pull' effect in the market.
Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve should be more forward-looking rather than data-dependent to avoid being too late in policy responses.
The VIX Index is creeping back up, indicating increased market volatility.
There is a significant amount of cash in money market funds, which could influence the market if interest rates change.
Zoom Video had better than expected results, leading to a significant stock price increase.
Samsung's breakthrough in solid-state batteries could increase demand for silver, potentially affecting its price.
Gold and silver are seen as insurance on wealth, with gold marching higher in an uptrend.
Federal funds futures indicate a 75% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut next month by the Federal Reserve.
Transcripts
coming up today stocks lower ahead of
Jackson Hall are we about to break out
to new all-time highs or is a rug pull
incoming more volatility ahead oil
bounces back and the Breakthrough of
Samsung Sila it's a big one today guys
let's get
[Music]
it and there we go again we've just done
the dreaded bearish engulfing candle
today that's where you Gap up above
yesterday's high and finish below
yesterday's low looking back at the last
few times we've done that little bit
here to start off last month and just
going back in history the last few times
we've had a bearish and golfing candle
we have seen some pullbacks a little bit
there in May again back in April bearish
and golfing S&P 500 pulled back for a
few weeks before that it was all the way
back in July last year I remember that
day vividly as well really big bearish
and golfing candle quite often see that
little retrace and then it fell over for
a few months after that and it wouldn't
be so surprising would it had a pretty
good bounce back certainly a lot of
other markets out there not so excited
about the economy around the corner but
it's not unusual after a good multi-week
run like we've just had see the market
take a few chips off the table lock in
some profits ahead of the big Jackson
Hole speech tomorrow morning which
historically JP uses as a platform to
give guidance for his monetary policy
going forward and this one's just
coinciding with kind of crunch time for
J pal it's been on hold for over a year
Now's the Time to really act have a
stick with me cuz I'll get into all that
a bit later on just looking at Market
color it wasn't a complete bearish
breadth of a day we still have
Industrials financials rats and the
defensive sectors All Above their 5day
moving average AES really got a lot of
weakness and energy that's definitely
the weakest sector at the moment and it
was actually Mega cap Tech that pulled
back the most today about 2% as a group
thanks to a pretty sizable down day for
NVIDIA of 3.7% and stick with me cuz
I'll show you what insiders have been
doing in this stock lately as well in
addition to hedge funds what they're
doing Mega cap Tech I'll share with you
some data and research also saw Tesla
come off 5% today and there's a look at
today's heat map to really visualize
that selloff especially in semis and
mega cap Tech while financials health
care and a few of the defensive sectors
actually held up there today and so we
just had a Down Thursday bearish
engulfing pattern Thursdays had been the
most bullish day so far this year
tracking at an annualized return of 46%
Friday coming in second best 34% going
into weekends is normally bullish in a
bull market and so we're all on the edge
of our seats waiting to hear exactly
what J Pal's going to say tomorrow how
doish or hawkish is he going to be what
do he think of the jobs Market what's
his view on inflation is he going to
mention the election does he see any
signs of distress with the cons Schumer
all of these things the markets want
answered so they can reprice the start
of an easing cycle and we can see a
little bit of bullish seasonality around
these Jackson Hole speeches markets can
come off going into them and at the
start of them however they can be
bullish coming out of them but they can
also swing around up and down like we
can see in this chart here going back to
the late 90 the one week post S&P 500
return after the Jackson Hall conference
can get some big up and down movements
especially like now when monetary policy
is at an inflection point which we're
most definitely at right right now like
I said the fed's been on hold since July
last year about 13 months a little bit
longer than average and so now's about
the time the markets are expecting them
to start cutting next month and just
looking back the last 10 years during
the Jackson Hole meeting over the
Thursday and Friday the average return
the S&P is slightly negative have a
slightly positive for the entire week
and so are we going to get that big
bullish rip to new all-time highs I'd
have to do it right in the face of that
bearish engulfing candle today and I'd
say that's possible if Jay gives any
hints of wanting to start big with his
easing cycle 50 basis point that could
get the market excited well whatam if he
gives a hint that there's still the
possibility he may stay on hold next
month do not think the stock market will
like that may get the classic rug pool
after this multi-week bounceback however
that is hard to see 2 months outside of
a federal election pretty sure he
doesn't want to rug pull the markets
going into that in my opinion he'd
probably love them to stay flat and I
think he'll come out with moderate
language I don't think he wants to light
the markets up get animal spirits going
possibly reignite inflation truth is the
stock market's just fine it's the real
economy that needs helping out many
consumers struggling so he may want to
balance that with indicating that he is
going to cut rates they're going to do
so cautiously but I'd be very surprised
if he indicated that they're going to
stay on hold cuz like Janet Yellen just
told him we don't see new alltime highs
tomorrow you'll be doing your printing
out of Alaska and just reading some
research out of mcar they share a
similar sentiment saying they wouldn't
be surprised by a moderate tone from pal
but doubt that it'll be very doish to
try and light the markets up they also
point out any postc convention rally in
Cala Harris's polls next week could
contribute to further US dollar
weakening as we've been seeing a lot of
lately but I'd agree with Tom Lee and
Muhammad alaran amongst others that
criticize the FED for being too data
dependent because whilst it can't be
ignored the thing is data is backward
looking where they've got to be deciding
their policy being more forward looking
and so they have the opportunity to get
in front of a potential recession and
start cutting rates now that's the whole
idea lower the cost of capital loosen
lending try and stimulate the economy
before it goes down the toilet and if
they're too data dependent it might just
be too late for them to get in front of
a recession and so if they don't cut
next month I think they'll face more
criticism for that than if they do
cutting right in front of an election
even though that's going to look bad I
think it's completely Justified however
whatever happens tomorrow whichever
direction we move could get a big day 2
3% in either direction markets will get
past it have we're still not out of the
woods just yet looking at volatility
still in the middle of the most volatile
period of the year in the stock market
and just looking back in history at
average volatility during election years
we are right here seasonality suggests
volatility goes higher over the next 2
months heading into the election before
it Peaks out just the election and like
a lot of newss events the market gets
worried going into it whatever the
result is it accepts then it calms down
and that's typically a low volatile
period in the market end of year start
of year and here we are on the VIX Index
today we're already creeping back up
17.5 kind of unbelievable it's on a 14
handle to start the week off and staying
even more elevated is volatility or
volatility and we're getting a bit of a
bounce back up and volatility risk
premium still negative territory I'll be
keeping an eye on this if we go back
into positive territory that's option
dealers forecasting more volatility
around the corner than what we're
actually getting in the market but
implied correlation still low 12% still
a lot of dispersion out there in the
stock market but also bond market
volatility and commodity Market
volatility still at reasonably firm
levels as well and so just looking back
at the last two August months we got
they finished lower even worse for
September the last four septembers we
had finished lower with three of them
above 5% as well but just stepping back
a bit and just looking at the amount of
cash out there there's just so much just
exploded after Co looking at total net
assets and money market funds you can
see back in January 2009 ran up for
quite a few years even throughout that
tough time 0708 peaked out just below 4
trillion and that was pretty much the
low in the stock market March 2009 cash
fell off went invested into the market
started already building in 2019 then we
got Co just absolutely exploded thanks
to the government just printing and
handing so much out it's gone from 3 A2
trillion to 6.2 trillion and if that
starts earning a lot less interest and
we don't get a recession then all those
stocks yielding four 5% many of them
Blue Chips been around for many decades
they're going to start looking a lot
more appealing to all those cashed up
Boomers you like to chase yield and
don't want to see their monthly payments
drop too much either we always see a lot
of charts of credit card debt exploding
in the state and it's true it's gone up
a lot in dollar terms now above $1
trillion however with a lot of stats
it's not a bad idea to adjust them for
inflation look at the real number that's
still actually well off highs from back
in 2008 when adjusted for inflation in
fact just looking at household debt to
disposable income as a percentage the US
is actually quite conservative 97%
Australia and Canada on the other hand
both of whom have had a love affair with
real estate for many decades 184% 175%
levered to the gills every third
person's a property investor and for
many people all they've known for the
past 2030 years is ever increasing
housing prices thanks to the secular
bull market in bonds that's when
interest rates peaked in the early 1980s
which I'm sure some of you watching this
may remember a lot of people couldn't
even imagine having a mortgage at 15%
these days however that's what it was
back in the early 80s like I said the
bond market went into a circular bull
for the next 40 years with yields
consistently dropping that's a huge
Tailwind for residential real estate
where the cost of capital has a huge
impact not to mention pro-investment
policies interest rate deductibles Easy
Loans based on Equity etc etc and we can
see that in plenty of data just how
overvalued Canadian and Australian real
estate has become along with New Zealand
and to a lesser extent the United
Kingdom and the United States Canada's
in adjusted house prices over the last
20 years looking at Canada's home price
to rent ratio deviation from the
historical average it's up there with
New Zealand Norway Belgium and Australia
with actual contractions in Germany and
Japan and there's a visualization of
just how expensive Australian real
estate has got inflation adjusted so the
multiple of the average house price
versus the average household income has
exploded at all-time highs in other
words housing affordability at alltime
lows but like I said a lot of people in
the market have been investing in it
this period here and they've been
condition to believe that that's normal
and should continue on for Infinity so
even though household debt in the states
is not all that bad we do have we do
have a rise in 4 closures on commercial
property commercial real estate still
not out of the woods the markets are
just not pricing in any Tower risk at
all cuz the fed's pretty much already
gotten there and back stopped at all in
fact a lot of private Equity is using
this as an opportunity to buy up a lot
of these properties really cheap
renovate them into residential property
if they can turn commercial offices into
residential Apartments they can unlock a
lot of value good news is we do have inl
coming down overall just not in
Necessities in the red line here
non-discretionary year-over-year percent
change in pce still on a high three
handle whilst the discretionary
component now down at a low 1.1 that's
the consumer really pulling back on
things they don't need but there's still
that inflation there in Staples and so
it looks very likely we're going into a
rate cutting cycle and looking back in
history at the S&P 500 year-over-year
change in the blue and red here plus 20
plus 40 - 20 - 40 and then the FED funds
rate in the black line you can see the
market quite often pulls back when the
FED funds rate drop doesn't happen all
the time like in the early 1980 interest
rates had significant drops pretty much
over the Whole Decade stock market
didn't really do more than a 20%
pullback same in the mid 90s where had
significant drops in the interest rates
in the early '90s and in the mid 90s as
well stock market pretty much held up
for the Whole Decade the early 2000s
definitely had a pretty lengthy bare
Market same with 0809 can't even really
call Co a bare Market barely shows up on
the chart there there's 2022 and so it
looks like interest rates are about to
come down again and there is a good
chance we can see the market pull back
during that time cuz the fact is S&P 500
valuation isn't all that cheap sitting
here in the mid-20s looking back in
history whenever the market is trading
around this valuation the subsequent
10-year return it's pretty much flat and
it was interesting today to see Mega cap
Tech pull back a lot more than the rest
of the market and we're actually
currently tracking this quarter for the
rest of the S&P 500 to outperform the
Magnificent 7 for the first time you can
see in the dark blue the mag 7
performance q12 23 huge outperformance
just like Q2 last year even when the
market dipped mag 7 held up better then
started off this year really strong how
we did see that rotation last month into
small caps even though it's pulled back
a little bit the rest of the market
still holding up better so far this
quarter than those big tech stocks and
just looking at some research from
Goldman Sachs out there today on what
hedge funds are doing this month in
August especially since the 5th of
August when we got that Vic 65 event
they've actually been net sellers of
stocks especially in the US selling
large cap stocks with tech stocks being
the most sold sector shorts been led by
semis big de grossing out of consumer
stocks they're still buying small caps
and they're actually gravitating towards
buying more High dividend stocks such as
energy utilities and rats being the most
net bought kind of similar to what I'm
doing myself I'm leaning towards buying
more defensive companies with solid
balance sheets better to withstand a
recession and I'm being pretty careful
around the tech and growth stocks as
well and you know it's interesting to
see hedge funds selling a lot of tech
stocks cuz we've been seeing the tech
company inside is offload a lot of late
as well looking at Jensen hang he sold
over $800 million worth of his own
shares just in the last couple of months
alone which is not really a bullish
thing and I mean just look at that one-
monthly chart of Nvidia what a rise it's
had just over the last 2 years
definitely looks stretched it's
definitely consolidating somewhat
reversal signals on the monthly chart
could be setting up a bit of a bearish
Divergence on the DSi if this bearish
engulfing holds but like I said they
report next Wednesday night and who
knows if they do break out to new
all-time highs surprise a lot of people
it's definitely in the face of all that
hedge fund and corporate Insider selling
there's a look at the semiconductor ETF
as well even though we had a nice bounce
back from August 5th this could still be
a topping formation at play as well just
getting on to the macro we did see
weekly jbless claims Edge a little
higher today coming in at 232,000 just
up 2,000 a little bit from what
economists had been forecasting showing
the jobs Market still softening a little
bit but not too bad especially when you
look at this chart here of the 4-we
average of initial jbless claims as a
percentage of the workforce still pretty
low is turning up however after what we
saw yesterday it's hard to know what to
believe out there whole medeia and
Market ke so much off these jobs figures
released each month and we find out a
year later oops they were wrong by 30%
nothing to see here so it's okay for the
government to report their figures to us
wrong by 30% however what happens to us
if we report our figures in income and
business wrong to them by 30% we'll
literally get locked up in a cage so if
interest rates are about to be cut
that's going to affect everyone that has
savings accounts money market funds if
you're a cashed up Boomer anywhere you
can lock in 5% for as long as possible
may not be a bad idea according to this
article cuz whilst it's impossible to
predict interest rate for an extended
period of time say the odds do favor
them going lower over the coming year
and so like those with mortgages or
getting into the market sometimes it's
not a bad idea to fix half and leave the
other half floating as a way to kind of
diversify your interest rate risk cuz
the 2-year bond yield that's already at
4% so if you're going to buy government
bonds directly they're already maret in
lower interest rates but whatever
country you're in CD term deposit
whatever they call it anything that can
be locked in close to 5% may not be a
bad deal here and any account that
offers tax advantages good idea as well
if you can get yield with a low tax rate
that always helps and speaking of taxes
post came up in my feed today from Zero
Hedge who are normally quite cynical
that a good point today based on all
this talk out there of the government
potentially introducing an unrealized
capital gains tax on the very wealthy
that is if their $100 million portfolio
is up 20% one year given a $20 million
unrealized gain they'll get a tax bill
on that however like Zero Hedge points
out the rich will find loopholes and or
leave the US like we've seen plenty of
times in history when government's
trying to do that the rich just move
country or at least for their residency
status then the threshold would drop to
100 million 50 20 10 and eventually
everyone and whilst a lot of people
might write that off as zeroedge just
being overly cynical they do actually
have a good point based on history a lot
of people might be surprised to know
there wasn't always an income tax and
I'm not just speaking about America but
but pretty much everything I say applies
to all Western countries it's all very
similar so up until 1913 Americans kept
all of their earnings there was no
personal income tax but America still
had great infrastructure standard of
living education Healthcare all of that
stuff and I think a lot of people will
be surprised to know that pretty much
all taxes are introduced at first in a
really small way often just on the
wealthy or the rich that's how the
government kind of sells it just a small
tax on a small amount of people and
that's why most of the people voting
don't care cuz it doesn't affect them
right there and then and that's what
they did back in 1913 the personal
income tax was just introduced to Target
the wealthy and the marginal tax rates
started at 1% went up to 7% in fact
looking at inflation adjusted dollar
amounts even going back to 2015 not even
using this year we know how much
inflation we've had since then you would
have had to earn about half a million
dollar before you started paying your 1%
tax and you'd have to earn 12 million
for you to pay 6% tax here we are 110
years later and look how this personal
income tax has progressed no longer
starts at today's equivalent of half a
million starts right away 10% not 1% and
then if you make over half a million 37%
of everything you make goes straight to
the government and this is not including
your goods and services tax amongst
dozens of other taxes all governments
slap on us and so if we don't all speak
out against this and push back against
it and vote differently and guess what
they're going to keep on doing taxing us
more bigger government they control more
of society's capital and don't ever let
a politician tell you that weakening
your own home country's current currency
is a good thing that is unless you want
to go the path of Venezuela or Zimbabwe
or some other Banana Republic you want
to keep your currency strong as that's
what your wealth is denominated in and
if the US dollar becomes too weak a lot
of big investors around the world may
begin to abandon it and it just adds
weight to the bricks country mission of
dollarization so reducing US Government
debt is key to upholding the value of
the US dollar and allowing the US to
retain their Global Currency Reserve
status which gives them a huge advantage
and there's a look at the dollar Index
Futures today like I said a bit
shortterm oversold here getting some
reversal signals and even though the
dollar bounced today we still got a bit
of a bounce in crude oil as well which
is not a bad thing to see crude find
support at these levels just like the
10e is as well something else I'm
looking for to find support and so it
appears to be more sideways action in
the oil Market if it really loses $70 a
barrel that's the market saying it
doesn't see much consumer demand just
around the corner just like if the
tenure started trading below 370 that's
4 in really low rates for a long time
did see a little bit of a pullback in
the gold market today it's been getting
a lot of attention of late it be
surprising to have a little pullback
here and maybe just few chips off the
table going into J pal tomorrow we could
get some movement across all financial
markets tomorrow pretty much everyone's
expecting him to come in doish it's just
how doish he will be if he came in
hawkish that would be a rug pool which
could also rug pool gold which is
looking forward to lower rates as well
and there's a look at gold Futures still
marching higher in a well- defined
uptrend here and you could kind of think
of gold is like Insurance on your wealth
when you're long gold you're short the
US dollar and there's a remarkable
correlation between the supply of the US
dollar and the price of gold and since
we've seen an explosion in the supply of
US dollars since 2020 it's really hard
to see gold diverging too much from that
in the medium term especially with
foreign central banks gobbling it up now
too and just like gold its younger
brother silver has a lot of industrial
uses it isn't just nice to hold and look
at and where is jewelry it's also used a
lot in the Solar sector and we've just
had a breakthrough coming from Samsung
and their research of solid state
batteries which could massively increase
the demand for silver and send the price
higher Market already in a supply
deficit and so this is to do with the EV
industry Samsung solid state batteries
promise an impressive 600 mile range on
a single charge and a lifespan of 20
years these batteries can charge in just
9 minutes which is one of the big
hurdles with EV adoption people hate
waiting so long for them to constantly
recharge these batteries nearly twice as
denon's current mainstream EV batteries
and they reduce the risk of fire making
them safer so who knows the industry May
be scratching the surface with what's
possible with silver and gold as well
they are really unique materials and
since there is only so much gold and
silver out there and a huge
underinvestment over the last decade
this is just another Tailwind precious
medal and there's a look at the price of
silver not as strong as gold as of late
but still having a pretty good 2024 up
about 30% what also had a good day today
was Zoom favored from the co period
jumped on better than expected results
for the second quarter lift their foure
guidance revenue for fiscal 2025 they
think will be around 4.6 billion they
just landed their largest new contract
Santa deal ever Revenue rose 2.1% from a
year earlier and there's a look at the
daily chart on Zoom pretty solid candle
there today up almost 133% being pretty
weak this year and it's gone out to a
monthly chart look at that bull market
in Co ripped straight up out of February
2020 $75 a share got up to almost 600
before it completely crashed 90% however
we could be nearing the end of a stage
one accumulation just looking at my
fundamental chart here here Revenue cash
flows and EPS estimates all trending up
it's very rare to see a high growth
stock like zoom undervalued on my fair
value indicator as well and at 21
billion market cap I think it's actually
a really reasonable valuation for Zoom
video and we just got news Kathy Wood
just dumped all of our shares as well
which I consider a pretty good
contrarian signal she hadd been long for
the last couple of years took another
massive loss for all our investors
however I think it could be a good risk
reward here on Zoom video for a one or
twoyear hold and so I'll keep an eye on
this one going forward as well okay so
just wrap things up going into tomorrow
there's fed fun Futures last look before
Jay speaks at 10: a.m. tomorrow morning
75% chance they think the FED will cut
25 basis points next month and we're
going to see how these swing around
tomorrow after we hear from J pal I'll
also be paying attention to the action
in the 2-year government bond yield
currently at 4% going into tomorrow
tenure at 385 high yield bonds sitting
at the top of their range the dollar at
the bottom of its range Bitcoin above
60,000 gold above 2500 crude at 73 a
barrel and the S&P 500 at 5570 after we
did a bearish engulfing today the balls
and Jay's caught let's see what we hear
tomorrow and the Market's reaction
should be a real interesting one thanks
for sticking with me today guys and I
look forward to breaking it all down for
you on the big day tomorrow cheers
Посмотреть больше похожих видео
Das passiert, wenn du Kokain nimmst!
MEGA CRASH in 2024? Eine 50% Korrektur wird definitiv kommen!
Sie tun es schon wieder! (Betrifft ALLE Investoren)
[#경주마] 코스닥 1월 부진, 2월에도 이어질까 | 2024년 바이오 新성장동력은? | 1월 FOMC, 어떤 시그널 나올까(feat황유현, 박종훈, 박현상)
🔴 A Warning SHOT Not Seen in a 100 YEARS!!
Kann NVIDIA die Ziele schlagen? | Abercrombie schwach | Kohl's, Nordstrom fest.
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)