🔴 A Warning SHOT Not Seen in a 100 YEARS!!

Summary

Der Skript analysiert eine pessimistische Arbeitsmarkt-Aktualität, mit einer Korrektur von 88.000 weniger erstellten Arbeitsplätzen als ursprünglich gemeldet. Dies wirft Fragen über die Genauigkeit der Arbeitsmarktstatistiken auf und beeinflusst die Währung, Rohstoffe und die Aktienmärkte. Die Diskussion umfasst auch die FOMC-Entscheidungen, Inflationsraten und die Auswirkungen auf Gold und Silber. Zudem werden die unterschiedlichen Reaktionen von Einzelunternehmen auf die wirtschaftlichen Verhältnisse hervorgehoben, einschließlich der Auswirkungen auf Tech-Giganten und Einzelhändler sowie die Rolle der chinesischen Wirtschaft und geopolitischer Spannungen.

Takeaways

• 📉 Die Arbeitsmarktzahlen wurden nach unten korrigiert: Im Zeitraum von April 2023 bis März 2024 wurden 88.000 weniger Arbeitsplätze geschaffen als ursprünglich berichtet.
• 📈 Obwohl die Korrektur erwartet wurde, hatte sie keinen signifikanten Einfluss auf den Aktienmarkt, der am Ende des Tages höher schloss.
• 💹 Der US-Dollar erreichte ein Jahrestief, was auf eine schwächere Arbeitsmarktlage hindeutet und die Notenbank dazu brachte, ihre Politik zu überdenken.
• 📊 Die Rohstoffmärkte zeigten eine Mischung aus Reaktionen, wobei der Aktienmarkt insgesamt resilient blieb und die Bond-Renditen sanken.
• 📊 Die Währung und die Bondmärkte reagierten auf die Korrektur der Arbeitsmarktzahlen, was auf eine zukünftig dovischere FED-Politik hindeutet.
• 📉 Die Dollar-Index erreichte ein Jahrestief, was auf eine Schwächung des US-Dollars und möglicherweise auf eine lockerere Geldpolitik hinweist.
• 📈 Die Rohölpreise waren unter Druck, was auf eine Schwächung der wirtschaftlichen Nachfrage und eine Abnahme der Inflationserwartungen hindeutet.
• 📈 Goldpreise nahmen zu, was auf eine Zunahme der Marktunsicherheit und eine Flucht in sichere Anlagen hindeutet.
• 📊 Die Analyse der Rohstoffmärkte zeigt, dass es in den kommenden Jahren ein signifikantes Ungleichgewicht zwischen Angebot und Nachfrage geben könnte, was die Preise stärken könnte.
• 🏛️ Die Diskussion um die Arbeitsmarktkorrektur und die Reaktionen auf sie weisen auf eine zunehmende Unsicherheit über die wirtschaftliche Zukunft hin und die Notwendigkeit, auf potenzielle Schwächungen vorzubereiten.

Q & A

Was war das Hauptthema des Finanzmedien heute?

Das Hauptthema des Finanzmedien heute war die große nachträgliche Korrektur auf dem Arbeitsmarkt. Die US-Wirtschaft hat 88.000 weniger Arbeitsplätze geschaffen als ursprünglich gemeldet, was etwa 30% weniger Arbeitsplätze im Vergleich zum ursprünglichen Bericht bedeutet.

Wie hat der Aktienmarkt auf die Arbeitsmarktkorrektur reagiert?

Der Aktienmarkt hat sich widerstandsfähig gezeigt und am Ende des Tages sogar höher geschlossen. Dies zeigt, dass der Markt die Korrektur möglicherweise nicht als schlagartig negative Neuigkeit aufgefasst hat.

Was ist die Bedeutung der nachträglichen Korrektur für die FOMC-Entscheidungen?

Die nachträgliche Korrektur könnte die Entscheidungen der FOMC beeinflussen, da eine schwächere Arbeitsmarktlage die Notwendigkeit einer Senkung der Zinsen rechtfertigen könnte, um die Wirtschaft zu stimulieren.

Wie hat der US-Dollar auf die Arbeitsmarktnachricht reagiert?

Der US-Dollar hat auf die Arbeitsmarktnachricht mit Schwäche reagiert und ist auf ein Jahrestief gestiegen, was darauf hindeutet, dass der Markt eine dovischere FOMC-Haltung erwarten könnte.

Was bedeuten die aktuellen Rohstoffmärkte für die Inflationserwartungen?

Die Rohstoffmärkte, insbesondere der Preis für Rohöl, deuten auf eine Abnahme der Inflationserwartungen hin, was die Wahrungs- und Anleihenmärkte beeinflusst hat.

Wie hat die Berichterstattung über die Arbeitsmarktkorrektur die Glaubwürdigkeit der Regierung beeinflusst?

Die Berichterstattung hat die Glaubwürdigkeit der Regierung in Bezug auf die Genauigkeit ihrer Daten und Analysen in Frage gestellt, da eine signifikante Abweichung von den ursprünglichen Schätzungen auftrat.

Was ist die Rolle der illegalen Einwanderer im Arbeitsmarkt, wie von Goldman Sachs dargestellt?

Goldman Sachs argumentiert, dass die季onale Zensus der Beschäftigung und Löhne, die für die Nachberechnungen verwendet wird, viele unerlaubte Einwanderer ausschließt, die nicht im Arbeitslosenversicherungssystem eingetragen sind, was die nachträgliche Korrektur übertrieben erscheinen lässt.

Welche Auswirkungen hat die Arbeitsmarktkorrektur auf die Anleihenmärkte?

Die Anleihenmärkte haben auf die Arbeitsmarktkorrektur mit einem Absinken der Zinsen reagiert, was darauf hindeutet, dass der Markt eine zukünftige Zinssenkung durch die FOMC erwarten könnte.

Wie steht der Goldpreis im Vergleich zu früheren historischen Hochs?

Der Goldpreis ist noch nicht einmal an den inflationsbereinigten Hochs von 1980 erreicht, was darauf hindeutet, dass Gold im Vergleich zur aktuellen Geldmenge noch unter seinen historischen Höchstständen liegt.

Was bedeuten die aktuellen Entwicklungen im Silbermarkt für zukünftige Preisbewegungen?

Der Silbermarkt zeigt ein Wachstum der Nachfrage, insbesondere durch die Elektronik- und Solarsektoren, während die Produktion gesunken ist. Dies könnte zu einer langfristigen Diskrepanz zwischen Angebot und Nachfrage führen, was eine starke Anziehungskraft für Preise sein könnte.

Welche Rolle spielen die chinesischen Regierungsausgaben in der globalen Wirtschaftslage?

Die chinesischen Regierungsausgaben sind in einem klaren Abwärtstrend, was auf eine sparsamere Wirtschaftspolitik hindeutet, im Gegensatz zu den USA, wo die Regierungsausgaben zunehmen.

Was ist die Bedeutung der bevorstehenden FOMC-Mitgliedschaft von J. Powell für die Märkte?

Die bevorstehenden Äußerungen von J. Powell sind von Bedeutung, da der Markt seine Reaktionen auf die Arbeitsmarktkorrektur und die zukünftige FOMC-Politik maßgeblich von seinen Aussagen abhängig machen wird.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Arbeitsmarkt-Schwächung und Dollar-Tiefststand

Der Arbeitsmarkt zeigt ein bearisches Zeichen, da das Arbeitsministerium die Zahl der Payrolls um 88.800 in die Tiefe korrigiert. CNBC's Rick Santell gibt einen Überblick über die Situation, die innerhalb der erwarteten Grenzen von 350.000 bis einer Million liegt. Er zeigt, wie der Dollar und die Aktienmärkte auf diese Neuigkeit reagiert haben, insbesondere die S&P 500, die trotz der Korrektur am Ende des Tages im Plus liegt. Die Diskussion um die Zuverlässigkeit der Arbeitsmarktzahlen und die Auswirkungen auf die FED-Politik, sowie die Rolle der illegalen Einwanderer in der Arbeitsmarktstatistik, werden thematisiert. Es wird auch auf die Reaktionen im Rohstoffmarkt und die Warnsignale für die Wirtschaft eingegangen.

05:02

📈 Aktienmarkt widersteht Arbeitsmarkt-Revision

Die Aktienmärkte haben die massive Revision des Arbeitsmarkts relativ unbeeindruckt überlebt. Es wird diskutiert, dass die tatsächliche Arbeitsmarkt-Revision durch die Berücksichtigung illegaler Einwanderer, die in der Arbeitsmarktstatistik nicht erfasst sind, geringer ausfallen könnte. Die Reaktionen auf diese Neuigkeit im Finanzmarkt, insbesondere die des US-Dollars und des Rohstoffmarktes, werden dargestellt. Es wird auch auf die Aussage des aktuellen Handelsministers Gina Raimondo eingegangen, die sich von der Berichterstattung distanziert, und die Diskussion um die Glaubwürdigkeit der Regierung in Bezug auf die Genauigkeit der Arbeitsmarktberichte wird geführt.

10:03

📊 Analyse der Wirtschaftsdaten und Marktreaktionen

Diese Passage fasst die Reaktionen verschiedener Finanzmärkte auf die Arbeitsmarkt-Revision zusammen, wobei der Fokus auf den Anleihen, dem Aktienmarkt und dem Rohstoffmarkt liegt. Es wird auf die Aussagen von Goldman Sachs eingegangen, die die Arbeitsmarkt-Revision relativieren, und es werden mögliche Auswirkungen auf die FED-Politik diskutiert. Zudem werden die Auswirkungen auf den US-Dollar, die Inflationserwartungen und die Bedeutung von Marktanalysen hervorgehoben.

15:04

💰 Rohstoffe, Währungen und geopolitische Spannungen

In diesem Abschnitt werden die Auswirkungen der Wirtschaftsdaten auf Rohstoffe und Währungen diskutiert. Es wird auf die Tendenzen im Gold- und Silbermarkt, die Anziehungskraft für Emerging Market-Währungen und die geopolitischen Spannungen eingegangen, die trotz scheinbarer Ruhe weiter präsent sind. Die Rolle der chinesischen Wirtschaft und der FED-Politik bei der Bestimmung der wirtschaftlichen Ausrichtung wird ebenso thematisiert wie die Erwartungen an die zukünftigen Entwicklungen im Rohstoff- und Aktienmarkt.

Keywords

💡Arbeitsmarkt

Der Arbeitsmarkt bezieht sich auf die Sammlung von Arbeitsplätzen, die verfügbar sind, und die Menschen, die diese Arbeitsplätze einnehmen. Im Video wird ein negatives Zeichen für den Arbeitsmarkt diskutiert, da die Zahl der Payrolls um 8818 weniger als erwartet ist. Dies zeigt, dass der Arbeitsmarkt nicht so stark ist, wie ursprünglich angenommen, was Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft und die politischen Entscheidungen haben kann.

💡Revision

Eine Revision ist ein Prozess, bei dem Daten oder Schätzungen überprüft und angepasst werden. Im Kontext des Videos wird die Revision des Arbeitsmarktes durch das Arbeits- und Sozialministerium erwähnt, bei der die ursprünglichen Zahlen der Arbeitsplätze um 88.000 niedriger als geschätzt sind. Diese Revision wirft Fragen zur Genauigkeit der Berichterstattung des Arbeitsmarktes auf.

💡Dollarindex

Der Dollarindex ist ein Maß für die Stärke des US-Dollar im Vergleich zu anderen Währungen. Im Video wird erwähnt, dass der Dollarindex an Schwäche zeigt und auf das niedrigste Niveau des Jahres fällt. Dies spiegelt eine Abnahme des Vertrauens in die US-Wirtschaft und die Währung wider, was auch auf die Dynamik des Arbeitsmarktes und die zukünftige Wirtschaftspolitik reagiert.

💡Inflation

Inflation bezieht sich auf den Anstieg der allgemeinen Preisniveaus von Gütern und Dienstleistungen über die Zeit. Im Video wird die aktuelle Inflation als 1,34% jährlich angegeben, was ein Jahrestiefstand ist. Eine niedrigere Inflation kann auf eine abnehmende Nachfrage und möglicherweise auf wirtschaftliche Schwächen hinweisen.

💡Bundesreserve

Die Bundesreserve, auch bekannt als Fed, ist die zentrale Bank der Vereinigten Staaten und hat die Aufgabe, die Geldpolitik zu steuern. Im Video wird erwähnt, dass die FED in Betracht zieht, die Zinssätze im September zu senken, was auf eine Reaktion auf die schwächere Arbeitsmarktsituation und die sinkende Inflation hinweist.

💡Aktienmarkt

Der Aktienmarkt ist eine der Hauptformen des organisierten Handels von Unternehmensaktien. Im Video wird angemerkt, dass der Aktienmarkt widerstandsfähig bleibt, trotz der negativen Nachrichten zum Arbeitsmarkt. Dies könnte darauf hindeuten, dass Anleger der Meinung sind, dass die wirtschaftlichen Bedingungen besser sind, als die Revisionen des Arbeitsmarktes nahelegen.

💡Rohstoffe

Rohstoffe sind natürliche Ressourcen, die noch nicht verarbeitet sind, wie z.B. Öl, Gold oder Agrarprodukte. Im Video wird der Rohstoffmarkt als Reaktion auf die Arbeitsmarktrevision und die geopolitischen Spannungen diskutiert. Ein schwächer Dollar kann zu einem Anstieg der Rohstoffpreise führen, da diese oft in US-Dollar gehandelt werden.

💡Geschäftsberichte

Geschäftsberichte sind die wirtschaftlichen Ergebnisse, die Unternehmen veröffentlichen, um ihren finanziellen Zustand zu kommunizieren. Im Video werden die Geschäftsberichte von verschiedenen Unternehmen wie Target und Macy's erwähnt, die unterschiedliche Auswirkungen auf den Aktienkurs und die allgemeine Wahrnehmung des Konsumverhaltens haben.

💡Technische Analyse

Technische Analyse ist eine Methode der Börsenanalyse, die sich auf Chartmuster und statistische Daten konzentriert, um Markttrends und -aussichten zu bewerten. Im Video wird die technische Analyse verwendet, um mögliche Marktbewegungen aufgrund der Arbeitsmarktrevisionen und anderen Faktoren zu prognostizieren.

💡Volatilität

Volatilität beschreibt die Stabilität oder Unregelmäßigkeit der Preisbewegungen auf dem Markt. Im Video wird erwähnt, dass die Volatilität der Märkte etwas gestiegen ist, aber insgesamt bleibt sie zäh, was darauf hindeutet, dass die Marktteilnehmer die aktuellen wirtschaftlichen Nachrichten nicht als stark beeinträchtigend für die langfristigen Aussichten wahrnehmen.

Highlights

劳工部修正了美国的就业数据，显示就业人数比预期少了88,000人。

尽管就业数据被大幅下调，但股市显示出韧性，标准普尔500指数当日收高。

美元指数触及年度低点，显示出市场对就业数据修正的反应。

市场对就业数据的修正反应有限，专家认为这并不意味什么，因为数据是旧的。

就业市场的修正可能会影响到美联储的政策决策。

债券市场显示出对就业数据修正的预期，2年期国债收益率持续下跌。

高盛认为就业数据的修正可能夸大了就业增长的高估程度。

美国政府和劳工统计局因就业数据修正而受到信誉质疑。

金融市场对就业数据修正的反应不一，美国股市和债市表现相对乐观。

大宗商品市场对就业数据修正的反应较为明显，尤其是原油价格。

黄金价格接近历史新高，显示出市场对经济不确定性的担忧。

零售业财报显示市场对消费者支出的担忧，Target和Macy's的财报对比明显。

全球经济的不确定性和地缘政治紧张局势对市场的影响。

投资者对市场的反应和策略调整，包括对黄金和大宗商品的投资。

美联储可能在下个月降息，市场对此的预期和反应。

市场对经济衰退的担忧和对未来货币政策的预期。

Transcripts

a bearish sign today for the job market

the labor department revising us

payrolls down by 8818 th000 cnbc's Rick

santell has more on that Rick yes lesie

you know it wasn't a shock and it was

within the range of what we expected

350,000 up to a million and as you look

at the charts I put a two-year going all

the way back to May of 23 because we are

TW with potentially closing under 388

briefly but we didn't do it we avoided

the worst case same could be said for

tens which closed almost virtually

unchanged after a very volatile session

so we didn't comp it back to uh July of

last year but we're very close the

dollar Index stuck that weakness stuck

we did close at the lowest levels of the

year $818,000 I guess what concerns me

most is how little attention was paid to

it with respect to the experts they said

it really doesn't mean anything it's old

you know it's from April of 23 to March

of 24 all Z know is that a few bricks of

that fed foundation with regard to what

their policy is built on was predicated

on a strong labor market now we find

it's not nearly as strong as we thought

it was coming up today a huge downward

Revision in the jobs Market is it all

just smoke and mirrors the US dollar

hits a yearly low the warning signal not

seen in a century the latest retail

earnings and all the action in the

Commodities Market you're going to like

this one

[Music]

guys and so you got to admit the stock

market is pretty resilient in the face

of that huge downward revision in the US

jobs market for the year ending march

2024 apparently the Bureau of Labor

Statistics got it wrong by

88,000 quite the Miss and pretty

convenient in an election year too if

you ask me did get a bit of a reaction

out of currency and bond markets which

I'll show you a bit later on just

looking at the S&P 500 here remarkably

finished the day higher still looking

really green across Market color pretty

much perfect bond yields oil energy the

dollar and inflation expectations all

read across the board however

technically we could be setting up a bit

of a bearish Divergence double top here

can see that on my main technical chart

as well just fired off the second

consecutive reversal signal and this

resistance Zone it's definitely been

tested wouldn't be surprised if we smash

up to new alltime highs especially after

we hear from J pal I'd say it's pretty

much guaranteed he's going to start

cutting rates next month after the jobs

Market's been completely goosed and

that's pretty much half of his dual

mandate two big areas of the economy

they really focus on jobs and inflation

jobs Market apparently not as strong as

we've all been led to believe but that

didn't here to upset the stock market at

all Russell 2000 back to holding above

its 50-day up 1.3% today volume breadth

pretty good along with Market breath

still pretty firm here as well did get a

little bit of a bump up in volatility

markets but stick with me cuz we'll come

back to the charts in a bit and I'll

show you what else is moving out there

today first let's just talk a bit about

the main headline across Financial media

today and that's the big downward

Revision in the jobs Market US economy

added 88,000 fewer jobs than initially

reported from April 2023 through March

2024 which equates to about 30% Less

jobs created in the US economy than what

we initially thought still saw net job

growth in that time however which way

you cut it jobs Market is weaker than

reported and it's kind of insulting to

all of us in financial media who have to

rely on these data prints to work out

our analysis and opinions on markets

just really undermines the reputation of

the Bureau of Labor Statistics the

government in general and you would

think in today's day and age with all

the cloud data analy ICS AI all this

stuff should be reported accurately

pretty much in real time if not weekly

or monthly and sure they'll always have

to clean up their numbers at a later

date however missing by 30% kind of bit

of a joke isn't it really just makes you

question a lot of their reporting but as

always that's why we key off price

action and technical analysis first and

foremost looks like the bond market saw

this coming has been trading really weak

big gap between the FED funds rate in

the 2-year and there's a look at the

revision broken up into different

categories with professional and

business Services Leisure and

Hospitality trade transportation and

utilities and Manufacturing having the

biggest downward revisions and just to

put it into context their down revision

easily the biggest in the last decade

and in fact it was just behind the

alltime record back in 2009 in which the

government did a down revision to the

jobs Market $824,000 just 6,000 more

jobs than this time however that was in

the midst of the global financial crisis

a literal one in a 100-year financial

storm that threw plenty of numbers out

of whack what was their excuse this year

however not all as it seems just looking

at a research note here from Goldman

Sachs they think today's downward

revision to payroll growth exaggerates

the degree to which job growth has been

overstated by about 500,000 both because

the qcw that's quarterly census of

employment and wages likely excludes

many unauthorized immigrants who are not

in the unemployment insurance system

that's what they use to get better

numbers when they do their revisions

instead of the initial surveys but we're

correctly picked up in the payrolls

initially and because the qcw itself has

tended to be revised up in recent years

as a result we think the true downward

revision should be about 300,000 or

25,000 per month which would imply that

monthly job growth over this period was

closer to 215,000 to 220,000 than the

initially reported

242,000 but not as low as the 174,000

pace implied by the revisions today

again that's not hard to believe at all

United States has had a record amount of

illegal immigrants over the last four

years absolutely exploded like never

before in history and of course most of

them are working illegally they don't

have insurance they're not showing up in

the insurance system where they finalize

their numbers however they do sharpen

the payrolls surveys they go into the

initial headline reports so I guess when

you got millions of illegal immigrants

entering your border it does muddy

things quite a bit and it's further

muddied when the current sitting

Secretary of Commerce Gina Rondo was

questioned today that nearly a million

jobs that have apparently been created

do not exist she she said she doesn't

believe it and the reporter said it's

from the Bureau of Labor to which she

responded I'm not familiar with that so

like I said the whole thing just

undermines the government's reputation

and credibility for accurate reporting

they should just Outsource the whole

thing to the private sector who will do

a way better job at giving accurate data

analytics on the jobs Market however

let's not get our hopes up on that

happening anytime soon just looking at

the reactions in financial markets we

did see treasury yields trade pretty

heavy today given a lift to bond ETFs

and just looking at the 2-year yield

here like I've been saying it already

been trading pretty heavy this last 2

months like it already knew this was

coming still down a little lower today

it could be finding a bottom here as I

can see a bit of a Divergence on my DSI

as we're starting to form a bit of a

double bottom and it could be a bit of

the sell the rumor buy the news here

getting a similar pattern on the tenure

as well bit of a bullish Divergence on a

potential double bottom however we

really do need these levels to be

defended pretty soon if we get down to

375 cuz if we break down here make a new

low that's really not a good sign for

economic growth around the corner but

like I've been saying since two Mondays

ago I'm still cautiously optimistic on

risk markets and the economy High your

bonds actually traded up today just like

the stock market couldn't care less

about this massive Revision in the jobs

market like I said they may be Keen more

off what Goldman Sachs said all the

illegals working out there weren't

accounted in this big downward revision

high Y credit spreads as well over

treasury still really low here just

going out to a monthly CH on this not

worried at all not pricing in anything

bad happening anytime soon Market's more

than happy to land to risky companies

only asking 3.2 percentage points of

Premium over treasuries in return

however one market did take note of this

downward revision which is likely

implying a much more doish fed that's

the very important US dollar which just

like the 2-year as well has been trading

pretty weak these last couple of months

I think it's seen it coming but again it

could be a sell the rumor buy the news

event we are looking a little

technically stretched here in the short

term got a green reversal signal on the

chart here don't really have a bullish

Divergence on the DSi though that's not

suggesting a bottom just yet and it's

quite a bit of weakness there in the US

dollar likely giving a bit of support to

bitcoin as well just sitting at its

50-day average $61,000 a coin and stick

with me cuz I'll come back to gold in a

bit and I'll show you what's going on in

there along with the silver market got

some interesting stats for you guys but

just getting back into the macro for a

bit just got the latest print from True

flation currently tracking at an

annualized rate of 1.34% that's a yearly

low so this on top of a weaker jobs

Market in addition to the fomc minutes

we just got today as well showing the

vast majority of fed members support a

cut in September pretty much saying if

inflation comes in as expected and like

I said the balance of the scales over

the last couple of months has tipped

from the upside risk of inflation to the

downside risk of the economy Contracting

and I would be very surprised if J pal

came out with any hawkish language this

Friday in Jackson Hall I'd expect him to

kind of hint and confirm that he will

cut rates next month Bond markets and

the dollar certainly pricing that in

along with fed fund Futures which

surprisingly didn't get that much more

dobish today after that downward

revision still placing a greater than

not chance fed will cut 25 basis points

next month not 50 which again I'm

sticking to my odds of about 70% and

after today's print I would lie my odds

of them staying on hold to about 10% and

I'd put the odds at a 50 basis point cut

about 20% 1 and5 I would be very

surprised if J power stayed on hold next

month now and so more and more financial

markets are starting to price in some

potential economic weakness around the

corner 10 year bonde trading really

heavy fed fund future

pointing sharply down for the path of

interest rates over the next year got

crew testing the bottom end of support

as well already got gold ripping up

which is normally a flight to safety

trade bond funds look to have put in a

bottom potentially already in an uptrend

but a lot of the stock markets parting

Like It's 1999 which are very well could

turn out to be like if we do see a

recession next year top of that we've

got a warning signal not seen in a

century according to billionaire

investor Mark Mobius he's cautioning

against stocks ADM made a decline in the

money supply saying investors should be

keeping at least a fifth of their

portfolio in cash and what he's talking

about is the draw down and M2 money

supply in the economy and you can kind

of think of that as the liquidity in the

economy that's a total of all cash

savings money market funds kind of

short-term liquidity in the economy

which exploded coming out of covid

thanks to all the government stimulus

pretty much just throwing a lot of money

at people many of whom didn't need it

along with the FED dropping rates to

zero also flooding markets with fake

money as well just exploded liquidity in

the system along with it just about

every asset imaginable no surprise pris

at all inflation at 40-year highs thanks

to all of that as well how they're

trying to tell us now it's your local

grocery store's fault for all that

inflation however according to Mobius

this decline is historically significant

because M2 has not seen such a drop in

over 90 years said investors should look

for companies with little or no debt

moderate earnings growth and a high

return on Capital and get ready to

re-enter the market with a little bit of

dry powder on hand and it's true just

looking at M2 money supply it has peaked

out in April 2022 it's come off a little

bit I mean when you look at a 10-year

chart and even Max chart yeah is a

little draw down but it's still so much

above preco amount of money and

liquidity slushing out there and the

market just knows if things get bad

enough the fed and the government will

do it all again flood the markets and

economy with liquidity why because they

can US dollar Global Currency Reserve

allows them to get away with all that

for now but I agree with Mobius I'm

tilting my portfolios more towards

defensive companies as well to account

for the recession risk I'm referring to

investing companies with little or no

debt good liquidity on their balance

sheets still at least a little bit

growth but I am very wary of investing

in the really high growth High beta

stuff out there just technically and

fundamentally looking at valuations here

the relative forward PE of value versus

growth currently almost two standard

deviations below the average any time we

went below that was back in the late 90s

that was a great time to dollar cost

average into value stocks along with

small caps Commodities Emerging Markets

all significantly outperformed over the

following decade until they peaked out

in ' 08 as well and here's a look at a

long-term two-monthly chart of the

spread between the NASDAQ and the

Russell 2000 large tech stocks versus

small caps see that sharp Ascent in the

late '90s topped out dropped to like an

absolute Rock been melting up since

about 2007 starting to fire off some

reversal signals on this chart as well

suggesting we could be potentially a bit

extended here in the NASDAQ versus the

Russell 2000 again why I'm leaning more

towards small caps for the coming years

as well not to say I'm completely

ignoring tech stocks I still have some

I'm just preferring to lean more and

more towards small caps going forward

and on the other hand all of that growth

and valuations is kind of Justified

Nvidia is Head and Shoulders Above the

Rest companies are spending like crazy

doesn't look like it's going to reverse

anytime soon and we'll get another taste

of that next week when we get to hear

from them on their Q2 earnings expected

to deliver 64 cents per share in

earnings on 28.6 billion in Revenue

Market will be looking for a beat along

with Rosie guidance as well and we can

see a week out from the earnings report

Nvidia starting to look like the S&P 5

00 close to putting in a double top bit

of a bearish Divergence reversal signal

kind of done that hard sharp bounce back

off August 5th lows but the higher we

trade up going into earnings the bigger

and bigger the Market's expectations it

will be and that's going to be a big

event this time next week still at the

back end of Q2 earnings season few more

retailers this week Target today had a

pretty good rip once again mixed signals

from the economy and companies within it

some are struggling some are not Target

Revenue Rose 2.7% year-over-year to 25.5

billion for the fiscal second quarter

coming in bit ahead of expectations same

store sales Rose 2% guess if you adjust

that for inflation the real numbers

actually a little negative companies

buying back shares and they actually

raised their full year earnings forecast

so higher than what the street was

expecting as well hence why the elos are

loving it today and repriced it much

higher to start the day off however

finished on its lows still 10% higher

than yesterday and this had been beaten

down a bit over the last few months on

the other hand we got Macy's similar

business leveraged to us consumer

discretionary spending they got hammmer

in market today the same store sales

declined for the n9th straight quarter

down 4% that was worse than predicted

even though they beat on earnings they

lowered their revenue Outlook and

they're still in the midst of a

turnaround strategy closing stores

trying to boost margins however that's

still yet to be seen there's the

Market's reaction today down almost 13%

trading pretty heavy there and just a

look at the overall retail sector xrt

pretty much been consolidating since

March we'll keep an eye on this for

indications of the US consumer as well

with some of the most important being

Amazon and Walmart which actually just

broke up to new all-time highs last week

on the back of their earning so once

again a little mixed out there moving on

to Commodities and just like the 10 year

we got crude oil trading pretty heavy as

well most likely on demand worries Big

Dam Revision in the US jobs Market

likely didn't help things today could be

getting a bit of cooling of geia

politics with the Israel Hamas ceasefire

deal Iran looks to have backed down

doesn't look like they're going to do

that big scale response that seems

likely however the big buildup of assets

by the West in the region may have just

deterred them however that's still yet

to be known but the market certainly

isn't pricing in any action over there

anytime soon still getting Soft Data

coming out of China along with a big

increase in EVS around the world and

there's a look at crude right at the

bottom of the support Zone I've got in

there about 7140 a barrel and that could

be broken through as well good sign for

inflation just not a good sign for

economic demand and so with a lot of

financial markets pricing in a weaker US

economy the US dollar being one a lot of

large foreign investors pursuing

dollarization now got Emerging Market

currencies breaking out this is all

strong Tailwind for gold and commodities

in general and there it is just hovering

around alltime highs 2550 an ounce and

what you're looking at here is a spread

chart of the gold mining ETF GDX to the

gold ETF GLD and that's in a bit of an

uptrend this year as well close to

breaking out to highs and if I just zoom

out to a monthly chart on this spread

starting to look pretty good to me here

we may be completing potential stage one

accumulation and ready to go into a

stage two Advan The Sweet Spot in

markets where all the money's made and

miners have underperformed significantly

for a long time look at that off the

last commodity bull market Peak back in

07 miners are very volatile to the

underline but gold could stay where it

is right now and miners could still have

a lot of catching up to do and I for one

are going to keep my portfolio

definitely exposed to miners likely for

years to come and if the gold price

keeps ripping up to new alltime highs

they won't be to keep ignoring that a

lot of the companies have good balance

sheets pay dividend yields and they'll

be in a position to start buying back

loads of stock and they'll Force the

stock market elos to mark them up also

good news for gold ball price of gold

still hasn't even broken out to new

inflation adjusted highs which reached

2637 back in 1980 in fact we haven't

even taken out the highs from 2011 so

gold relative to the amount of US

dollars out there is still below alltime

highs and who knows in this bull market

this chart could go up to $10,000 and

believe it or not there's actually been

outflows of gold ETFs as a whole in this

latest bull market over the last year or

two however the market starting to come

back we can see that in the amount of

tons of gold held by GLD up these last

couple of months just as we've seen the

bond yields dive off along with the US

dollar cool chart here on the supply and

demand in the silver market just looking

over the last 9 years 2015 to 2024 total

Supply is down 4% M production is

actually low as well got to remember in

the commodity markets they' been beaten

down since 08 2010 huge under investment

multiple year lag on investment

production for a lot of them but we've

seen demand in that time up 14% with the

biggest increase coming from Electronics

thanks to the boom and the solar sector

which uses silver parts of the AI

industry are using it as well and like a

lot of commodity markets forecast to be

a huge imbalance between demand and

supply for years to come it's a strong

Tailwind for prices as well especially

if stocks ever come off and investors

start looking for what's working out

there that's how you get a pile on and a

big fat bull market central banks around

the world accumulating it at record Pace

also got the Chinese getting back to

importing a lot of silver as well really

taking a liking to Precious medals here

another thing the Chinese are doing

becoming a lot more frugal looking at a

annual percentage change of China's

fiscal expenditure government spending

in a clear downtrend over the last

decade pretty much the exact opposite to

the US government who are going in the

opposite direction and don't be fooled

just because you're not hearing it in

the headlines geopolitical tensions

haven't gone away in fact Ukraine's

getting a lot more aggressive even just

started targeting Moscow with one of the

largest drone attacks ever inside

Russian territory the Russians just

having to shoot them all down 45

Ukrainian drones this is on top of

sending troops inside Russian territory

as well and it could be just zinsky

trying to cause a showdown before the US

federal election maybe he's worried a

change in the White House could

potentially bring an end to the war and

so we should expect a continued and

larger response from the Russians on

this as well and we'll be interesting to

see how the US election plays a role in

this war along with what's going on in

Israel as well and just getting back to

the charts one thing that's not really

bullish is the spread of high beta

stocks versus low volatility just kind

of sitting at their 50-day here but

could still be in a downtrend same with

growth versus defensive sectors

discretion versus staple stocks and

obviously copper versus gold is very

weak inflation expectations still

tracking down and we do have some

strength in these defensive sectors like

utilities Staples trading up to a 52 we

high today and Healthcare stocks sitting

up there as well and there's Mega cap

Tech just kind of hanging around above

its 50-day so the Market's really just

waiting from J pal confirmation is going

to cut next month along with Nvidia

earnings be the big one next week but

volatility markets are rather tame along

with high yield bonds really just got

that weakness in the dollar and bond

yields as well along with crude oil

that's really what I'm watching this

week other than that tomorrow we'll get

pmis weekly jobless claims as usual and

we'll just have to wait and see what J

pal says this Friday morning I'll be

interested to hear his reaction to the

huge downward Revision in the jobs

Market along with his view on inflation

and any indication what sort of cut he's

going to do next month other than that

the S&P 500 is pretty much sitting at

alltime highs as we go into that thanks

very much for sticking with click

capital and I'll see you guys again

tomorrow night cheers