Harry Enten: Women voters are fueling Kamala Harris’ polling surge

Summary

El guion del video analiza cómo Kamala Harris ha cambiado la dinámica de la carrera presidencial debido a su creciente ventaja entre votantes femeninos. Aunque la brecha de género existía con Biden, Harris ha ampliado su ventaja entre mujeres en votaciones nacionales e incluso en estados clave como Pennsylvania, Michigan y Wisconsin. La estrategia de Trump, enfocándose en ataques personales y evitando conferencias de prensa de Harris, no parece ser efectiva, y Harris se prepara para su discurso económico, enfatizando en reducir costos y hacer la vida más asequible para los trabajadores estadounidenses.

Takeaways

• 📊 La encuesta nacional muestra un cambio significativo en la brecha de género con la nominación de Kamala Harris, lo que podría ser un factor determinante en las elecciones.
• 🔍 Los votantes femeninos están apoyando a Harris con una ventaja de 11 puntos, una mejora notable desde la ventaja de 4 puntos que tenía Biden.
• 🏳️ El apoyo de los hombres no ha cambiado, manteniendo una ventaja de 9 puntos para Donald Trump tanto contra Biden como contra Harris.
• 🗺️ En los estados clave, como Pennsylvania, Michigan y Wisconsin, Harris mejora la ventaja de Biden entre las mujeres, pero no logra cambiar la preferencia de los hombres.
• 📈 La brecha de género en los estados de la Gran Lagosa es históricamente amplia, con Harris obteniendo un margen de 17 puntos entre las mujeres, más que Clinton en 2016.
• 💰 El precio de la vida ha aumentado un 20% desde febrero de 2020, lo que afecta la economía personal de las personas y es un tema central en la campaña de Harris.
• 🏠 Harris enfatizará en su discurso sobre la economía la necesidad de reducir los costos de la vivienda mediante la construcción de más viviendas accesibles.
• 🤔 Se cuestiona si los cambios en las preferencias de las mujeres son debido al género de Harris o a su programa político.
• 🗣️ Trump ha utilizado conferencias de prensa para realizar ataques personales contra Harris, lo que podría ser una estrategia para provocar respuestas imprevistas.
• 📉 Las conferencias de prensa de Trump parecen no estar ayudando a su campaña, ya que ha perdido apoyo en las encuestas tras eventos recientes.
• 🕊️ La estrategia de Harris de no realizar conferencias de prensa no improvisadas podría ser una táctica para evitar errores y mantener un mensaje coherente.

Q & A

¿Qué cambio significativo se ha observado en las encuestas tras la nominación de Kamala Harris para la presidencia?

Se ha observado un aumento significativo en el margen de género, con una mayor ventaja de Harris entre las mujeres, lo que ha dado un vuelco en las encuestas a su favor.

¿Cuál es la principal razón por la que Kamala Harris está ganando en las encuestas según el script?

La principal razón es el aumento en el margen de género, con un aumento considerable del apoyo femenino hacia el ticket democrático.

¿Cómo ha cambiado el patrón de voto entre los hombres en las encuestas nacionales tras el cambio de candidato a Kamala Harris?

Según el script, los hombres no han cambiado sus patrones de voto; mantienen una ventaja de nueve puntos a favor de Donald Trump.

¿En qué puntos el margen de género entre los votantes femeninos ha cambiado con la nominación de Kamala Harris en comparación con Joe Biden?

Con Joe Biden, tenían una ventaja de cuatro puntos entre las mujeres, pero con Kamala Harris, esta ventaja se ha incrementado a once puntos.

¿Cómo se compara el margen de género de Kamala Harris con el de Hillary Clinton en los estados clave de los Grandes Lagos en años anteriores?

Kamala Harris está obteniendo un margen de 17 puntos entre las mujeres votantes, lo que es más que los 11 puntos de Hillary Clinton en 2016 y los 13 puntos en 2020.

¿Qué estrategia ha utilizado el equipo de Kamala Harris para destacar su posición económica en su discurso principal?

Harris ha enfocado en recordar cuánto mejor es la economía hoy en día en comparación con cuando asumieron el cargo y en presentar su agenda para seguir creando crecimiento y oportunidades.

¿Qué es lo que Simon Rosenberg sugiere que Kamala Harris deba hacer en su discurso económico para diferenciarse de Joe Biden?

Rosenberg sugiere que Harris debe enfocarse en la reducción de costos y hacer que la vida sea más asequible para las personas trabajadoras, con un énfasis en la vivienda y la reducción de los costos de la vivienda.

¿Qué críticas ha hecho Lance Travers a las políticas económicas propuestas por Kamala Harris en su discurso?

Travers criticó las propuestas de Harris como 'controles de precios de estilo soviético', sugiriendo que estas políticas de intervención gubernamental en los precios de alimentos y medicamentos no funcionan y son similares a las de la era de los 70.

¿Cómo ha sido la estrategia de Donald Trump en sus conferencias de prensa recientes según el script?

Trump ha utilizado sus conferencias de prensa para realizar ataques personales y destacar los altos precios de la vida, esperando provocar a Harris a aparecer en público sin guion para comparación.

¿Qué ha sido la respuesta de Kamala Harris a las conferencias de prensa de Donald Trump y las críticas personales?

Según el script, Harris no ha tomado la provocación y no ha aparecido en conferencias de prensa sin guion, manteniéndose al margen de las respuestas imprevistas.

¿Qué reveló la investigación de CNN sobre el proyecto 2025 y cómo se relaciona con la agenda de Donald Trump?

La investigación de CNN mostró un video secretamente grabado de uno de los arquitectos del proyecto 2025, quien también fue miembro del gabinete de Trump y director del equipo de la RNC que reescribió la plataforma oficial del partido. Aunque Trump dice no saber nada del proyecto, el video sugiere una conexión más directa.

Outlines

00:00

🔍 Análisis del vacío de género tras el cambio de candidato

Este párrafo analiza cómo la incorporación de Kamala Harris en la presidencia ha afectado la brecha de género entre los votantes. Se destaca que, a pesar de que los hombres no han cambiado su preferencia, las mujeres están apoyando en mayor medida a Harris, lo que se refleja en un aumento de la brecha de género en su favor. La discusión señala que esta tendencia es similar tanto a nivel nacional como en los estados clave, lo que sugiere un cambio significativo en la dinámica electoral.

05:00

📊 Impacto económico y propuestas de Kamala Harris

En este segmento, se discuten las consecuencias económicas del Inflation Reduction Act y las propuestas de Kamala Harris para abordar la situación económica actual. Se menciona que, aunque algunos de los planes de Harris son similares a las propuestas de la campaña de Trump, hay preocupaciones sobre la implementación de controles de precios 'a la soviética'. Además, se resalta la estrategia de Trump de realizar conferencias de prensa para desafiar a Harris a aparecer en público y su resistencia a hacer lo mismo.

10:01

🗣️ Debate sobre la estrategia de campaña y el proyecto 2025

Este párrafo presenta un debate entre dos analistas políticos sobre la estrategia de campaña de Kamala Harris y el misterioso proyecto 2025. Mientras uno argumenta que las conferencias de prensa de Trump podrían estar perjudicando su campaña, el otro sugiere que la reticencia de Harris a realizar dichas conferencias es problemática para la democracia. Además, se cuestiona la afirmación de Trump de no conocer el proyecto 2025, sugiriendo que su agenda política es coherente con los objetivos de dicho proyecto.

Keywords

💡Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris es una figura central en el video, siendo mencionada como la candidata a la presidencia que podría estar en la cima de la boleta electoral. Su papel es fundamental para entender el tema principal del video, que es el cambio en la brecha de género entre los votantes tras su nominación.

💡brecha de género

La brecha de género se refiere a las diferencias en las opiniones, comportamientos o resultados entre hombres y mujeres en un contexto particular, en este caso, en las encuestas y elecciones presidenciales. El video destaca cómo esta brecha ha cambiado con la nominación de Harris, con un aumento en el apoyo femenino hacia el ticket democrático.

💡encuestas nacionales

Las encuestas nacionales son mencionadas para ilustrar la diferencia en el apoyo entre hombres y mujeres hacia los candidatos presidenciales. El video utiliza estas encuestas para analizar el impacto de Harris en la brecha de género y cómo ha influido en los resultados electorales.

💡estados clave

Los estados clave, también conocidos como battleground states, son aquellos que son considerados competitivos y pueden ser decisivos en una elección presidencial. En el video, se analiza cómo la brecha de género y el apoyo a Harris en estos estados pueden ser determinantes para el resultado de la elección.

💡Inflación

La inflación es un tema importante en el video, ya que se discute cómo el aumento de los precios ha impactado la economía y la vida de las personas. Se menciona que Kamala Harris tiene que abordar esta cuestión en su discurso económico y cómo su manejo de la inflación puede ser un factor en las elecciones.

💡economía

La economía es un tema central del video, especialmente en relación con las políticas y propuestas de Kamala Harris. Se discute cómo Harris planea mejorar la economía y hacer la vida más asequible para las personas, lo que es crucial para entender su estrategia electoral.

💡discurso de política

El discurso de política de Harris es un punto focal del video, donde se espera que ella presente sus planes y propuestas económicas. Este discurso es importante para entender cómo Harris aborda los desafíos económicos y cómo planea atraer el apoyo de los votantes.

💡votantes

Los votantes son el grupo de personas que toman decisiones en las elecciones y son cruciales para entender el mensaje del video. Se discute cómo los votantes, especialmente las mujeres, están respondiendo a Harris y cómo esto puede influir en los resultados electorales.

💡Project 2025

Project 2025 es mencionado en el video como un plan o agenda política que algunos asocian con las políticas de Trump. Aunque Trump dice no saber nada al respecto, se sugiere que sus políticas son similares a las del Project 2025, lo cual es un punto de discusión en el video.

💡conferencias de prensa

Las conferencias de prensa de Trump son un tema en el video, donde se discute cómo su comportamiento y las declaraciones en estas conferencias pueden estar impactando su campaña y la percepción pública. Se sugiere que estas conferencias pueden estar teniendo un efecto negativo en su apoyo.

Highlights

Kamala Harris is gaining in the polls due to a significant gender gap among voters.

National polls show a nine-point advantage for Donald Trump among men and a four-point advantage for Joe Biden among women, which has shifted to an 11-point advantage for Harris.

The gender gap is working in favor of Kamala Harris, with women voters flocking to the Democratic ticket.

In swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the gender gap is even more pronounced, with Harris up by 17 points among women voters.

Kamala Harris is performing significantly better among women voters compared to Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton in previous elections.

Harris's economic policy speech focuses on creating growth and opportunity, emphasizing not just getting by but getting ahead.

Harris proposes lowering costs and making life more affordable for working people, with a particular emphasis on housing affordability.

Critics argue that the Inflation Reduction Act signed by Biden and Harris has contributed to a 20% increase in prices, negatively impacting personal economies.

Trump's campaign accuses Harris of proposing 'Soviet-style' price controls, which they claim will not work.

Trump's press conferences are seen as an attempt to pressure Harris into more unscripted appearances where she might stumble.

Harris has not yet committed to an unscripted press conference, which some see as a missed opportunity for transparency and engagement with voters.

Trump's recent performance in the polls has dropped, with Harris now leading in all battleground states.

The Trump campaign is undergoing a shake-up with a new team to try to change the election's trajectory.

A secretly recorded video implicates a former Trump cabinet member in Project 2025, which Trump has denied knowing about.

The debate over Project 2025 raises questions about transparency and the Trump administration's involvement in political strategies.

Harris's lead in the polls and the gender gap are attributed to her appeal among women voters and her economic policy proposals.

Transcripts

with Kamala Harris at

the top of the ticket.

The presidential race has reset,

but how much has it reset

in terms of the gender gap among voters?

That is what our Harry Enten

has been looking at for you.

This morning.

And he's here with us now.

So set the scene.

How are men and women

responding to Harris?

What's the big reason

why Harris is gaining in the polls?

Yeah. All right, it's the gender gap.

It's something we've spoken

about in politics

for a long period of time,

and we're really seeing it here.

All right.

Let's take a look at the national polls

versus Democrat versus Trump margin.

And I want to point out

this is average across

the same pollsters.

Look at Biden versus Trump.

Women and men.

What we see as the gender gap is working.

And Donald Trump's

advantage yields a nine point

advantage among men against Joe Biden

and Joe Biden.

Only how to vote four point advantage

among women.

But take a look.

Now look at how the race has changed.

Instead of having a four point advantage

among women as Biden, good

look at Harris has advantage.

It leaps up to 11 points.

In fact,

men haven't changed their voting patterns

at all, at least in the national polls.

A nine point advantage

for Donald Trump versus Joe Biden,

a nine point

advantage against Kamala Harris.

What has occurred is women

voters are flocking

to the Democratic ticket.

Look at that.

Look at that.

Four points versus 11 points.

That is the reason that Kamala Harris

has turned this race around.

You said this is nationally, right?

This is nationally.

What about in swing states?

What's going on in the swing states.

So let's take a look at those Great Lakes

battleground states

Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

This is among registered voters.

What do we see here?

It's a very similar picture.

Biden versus Trump women.

Biden has a little bit

a larger advantage

in those Great Lakes battleground states,

scoring those New York Times

going to college polls at ten points.

But again,

that surge among women,

we're seeing the same thing

in those battleground states

as we saw nationally.

Kamala Harris, up 70 points

among women men.

Very little change.

Donald Trump doing a little bit worse,

but still a very clear advantage.

But the same story in the swing states

as we see nationally,

the gender gap was working for

Donald Trump against Joe Biden.

And now it's working against him, against

Kamala Harris.

Is this the same smaller or bigger that?

Can you, like put it in context?

I mean, is it the same

that we normally see?

Yeah. All right. So let's take a look.

Let's go through time particularly here.

All right.

This is the Democrat versus

the Republican for president.

Again this of these key great Lake

battleground states

Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

2020 and 2016 are final.

These are the exit polls 2024 is now.

Look at the women margin.

Look at what's going on here.

Look how much better

Kamala Harris is doing.

Among women voters,

there was 11 points

Hillary Clinton back in 2016,

13 points in 2020.

Look at this margin now 17 points.

Interestingly the gender gap

becoming wider over time.

It's much wider this year

than what we're normally expecting

because in fact,

Donald Trump

is winning men voters by 15 points.

That's better than he did

in 2020, in these same states.

And it's even better than he did in 2016,

or just slightly better.

But the bottom line here is Kamala

Harris is winning this race

right now, at least in these key

battleground states,

because of what she's doing.

Women voters, women voters are energized

and is the reason that Kamala Harris

turned a deficit

that Joe Biden had into a lead.

And also, just a quick

we talked about the

we do not know,

because there's a lot that goes into it

that there that this is

because she's a woman

that's just there support for her.

Correct.

We don't know that.

We don't necessarily know the reason.

We just know she's doing better.

Women voters

significantly better than Joe Biden was

and better than either

Joe Biden or Hillary

Clinton did back in 2016.

Fascinating. Great stuff here.

Thank you so much. Thank you Sarah.

All right.

For more on this, I'm

joined by Lance Traver,

former spokesperson

for Republican Governor Doug Burgum,

2024 presidential campaign

and Democratic strategist

and consultant Simon Rosenberg.

Thank you, gentlemen, for being here.

as of July 2024, prices are 20%

higher than they were

in February of 2020,

which is people say, look,

it's crushing our personal economies.

So, Simon,

what does Kamala

Harris need to do today

in her first big policy speech,

which is on the economy?

Yeah, I mean, I think she

has to remind folks

how much better

the economy is today than it was

when we came into office.

And to lay out her agenda

for how she wants to continue

to create growth and opportunity

for the American people.

Her basic phrase

about the economy is we want people

not just to get by, but to get ahead,

which I think is a very powerful way

of talking about the economy.

And today

she's spending a lot of time talking

about how she wants

to continue

to lower costs and makes life

more affordable for working people.

It's a very sensible, commonsense agenda

that she's going to be laying out today.

I think the new thing that is going to be

that's a little bit different

from what Biden had been doing,

is a big emphasis on housing

and lowering housing costs

by building more housing in America

to make housing more affordable

across the country.

I think that's going to be a really key

part of her discussion today.

Langston.

She needs to differentiate herself,

in your opinion, from from Biden.

Well, I think the first thing

we need to remember is how we got here.

And you talked about it just now.

Prices are up over 20%.

She and Joe

Biden are the reason that's here.

Today is the anniversary of the signing

of the Inflation Reduction Act,

which, as we all know,

dumped a ton of money into the economy

and lit inflation on fire.

So that's first and foremost,

this is like the arsonist

calling the fire department today.

And look,

a couple of her proposals,

no taxing on tips and

and expanding the child

tax credit

are things that the Trump campaign

has already called for.

But what's most

disconcerting to me about this

are these, like, Soviet style

price controls

that she's going to call for

an answer like,

you know, hey, the Soviets called.

They want their price controls back.

I mean, that's about the

price controls on drugs,

on food, on food.

She's going to call

for government intervention,

price controls on food.

That's something we tried in the 70s.

It didn't work. Mean the Soviets called.

They want their economic policies back.

I find that very disconcerting.

I think it's something voters

should pay attention to.

let's talk about what

Trump has been saying.

He he had a press conference yesterday.

It began,

pretty tame talking about the economy,

staying on strip.

He talked about the high price of things

again, everything from housing to food.

But he then spent a lot of time

on personal attacks. Here's some of that.

I think I'm entitled to personal attacks.

I don't have a lot of respect

for virtually 100% of the net job

creation in the last

year has gone to migrants,

but actually,

beyond the number of 100%,

it's a much higher number than that.

Kamala is reportedly proposing communist

price controls and Maduro plan

like something straight out of Venezuela.

She actually called me weird. He's weird.

She's weird in her policy,

100% of jobs has not

gone just to migrants. All right.

this seems to be a strategy

to show that he's doing press conferences

to show

that Kamala Harris

is not doing press conferences.

Axios

put it

very succinctly

this way,

that the Trump campaign is hoping

his press conferences

will goad Harris

into more unscripted

appearances and interviews,

where they believe that vice

the vice president will stumble.

So far, though,

Harris isn't taking the bait.

All right,

so are these pressures

doing what he intends for them to do?

Lance?

Taylor. No.

If you know what

two press conferences

he's done in the last week,

how many has she done? Zero.

They won't even commit

to doing one by the end of August.

And I think that's a travesty

for the voters in this country.

But she is not stepping out

and taking questions

from reporters unscripted,

not in front of a teleprompter,

not with a scheduled list

of reporters to call on.

I mean, we're 80

some days out of an election,

and we have a presidential candidate

who isn't willing to

step in front of the media

and answer questions.

What does that tell you

in terms of what they're doing now?

Look, I get it.

I get the play

and what they're trying to do,

but at one point,

this honeymoon is going to come

to an end.

Post Labor Day,

voters are going to start keying in,

and I think they're really going to start

looking at these candidates

closely, their economic policies

and where they stand.

So I'm not sure the strategy can play out

post Labor Day for sure.

But Lance points out to in all Simon.

But when you watch these

press conferences

and the way that they go,

do they help Trump or is it backfiring?

No, I mean, Donald Trump's

performance in the last

few weeks have been

some of the most disastrous events

that we've seen in modern American

political history.

I mean, he's dropped six points

in the polls in the last few weeks.

Kamala Harris now has a lead

in all the battleground states.

we are

you know, the election has changed,

and I think it's changed in part

because the with Biden struggles

now not being in the

in the news every day,

we've gotten to see a lot more

about Donald Trump.

And it's been scary stuff.

I mean, some of the stuff

he said yesterday

reminded us

of how fundamentally unfit

and unwell he is.

And so

I do think this has been

a really rough patch

for the Trump campaign.

I think the JD Vance pick

was also something

that's dragging them down,

and somehow

they've got to change

the fundamental dynamic of this race.

They're bringing in a whole new team

to try to shake things up.

Now, we've learned yesterday

and they need to do that

because right now we're winning

and they're losing.

And if they don't somehow

fundamentally change

the trajectory of this election,

they're going to lose the election.

I got to ask you about this investigation

that was done here at CNN, showing

the secretly recorded video

of one of the architects of project 2025.

He's also a former cabinet member

for the Trump administration

and the director of the RNC team

that rewrote the party's,

official platform.

Trump says

he doesn't know anything

about project 2025.

He said that publicly several times.

But here is what one of the architects

of project 2025 said about it.

Notwithstanding,

I expect to be here

ten more times from the rally.

The president,

you know,

distancing himself

from the left's

boogeyman, a project 2025.

Yeah.

and you're not worried about that?

I worry about it.

And so I see

what he's doing is just very, very,

conscious, distancing himself

from my brand.

He's very supportive of what we do, and,

and know that we have an all

manner of things that we do that's,

you know, even unrelated to project 2025.

This is all about politics.

He says at one point,

Simon, I mean,

how does Trump keep saying

he doesn't know anything about this?

I mean, his agenda is project 2025.

There is no

he can

try all day to distance himself from it.

But what he's laid out in Simon Lands,

do you agree with that?

That is the same agenda.

Simon. You made this.

This.

You know, quip that it is about 2025

and his agenda is. Lance, do you agree?

Look, the president says he

doesn't know anything about 2025.

We take him at his word.

The media lets Kamala Harris walk back

every single one of her positions

every day.

So I think we should take

the president at his word.

But he doesn't know anything about it.

All right.

Simon Rosenberg and Lance Trevor,

thank you both

so much for talking through this with me.

Appreciate it.