Ukraine-Russia war: Why has Ukraine launched an incursion into Russia and is it working?

Summary

In this interview, Professor Michael Clark discusses the recent escalation of fighting between Ukraine and Russia. He highlights the ferocious battles to the east and northwest of a significant Ukrainian advance on the Russian border. The Ukrainian forces are pushing eastward, capturing territory and forcing the Russians to redeploy their forces from the V Chans area. The pocket of Ukrainian control is growing, with approximately 530 square kilometers taken, and fighting continues in an additional area of similar size. The Ukrainians are demonstrating surprising strength and ambition, which could potentially force Russia to reevaluate its military strategy and operations.

Takeaways

• 🔍 Intense fighting is occurring to the east and northwest of a pocket opened by Ukrainian forces on the Russian side of the border.
• 📍 Ukrainian forces are pushing eastwards from the pocket towards Plov, with indications of significant combat activity.
• 🚨 Russian forces are moving from the V Chans area to the west to close in on the pocket, but have not made significant progress.
• 📏 The pocket is substantial, approximately 35 miles long and 14 miles deep at its deepest, though not entirely under Ukrainian control.
• 🏹 Ukrainian forces have captured around 530 square kilometers of territory, with fighting ongoing in an additional similar area.
• 🚀 The Ukrainian counteroffensive is notable for its ambition and success, penetrating into Russian territory unexpectedly.
• 🛡️ Ukrainian vehicles show signs of prior combat, with scrap metal added as improvised armor, indicating they are not newly deployed but repositioned from other combat zones.
• 🔄 The Russians are transferring heavy military equipment from one combat area to another, possibly in response to Ukrainian strategy.
• ⚔️ Ukrainian forces are serious about maintaining their position, deploying engineering, air defense, and heavy artillery support.
• 🏰 The Ukrainian strategy may aim to force the Russians to redeploy quality troops to reclaim the territory, affecting other conflict areas.
• 💡 The incursion could be a strategic move to influence international perception, unsettle the Kremlin, and alter Russian military priorities.

Q & A

What is the current situation described in the script regarding the fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces?

The script describes ferocious fighting to the east and northwest of a pocket opened by Ukrainian forces on the Russian side of the border. The Ukrainians are pushing eastwards from this pocket towards Plov, and the Russians are moving forces from the V Chans area to close in on the pocket, but without making significant progress.

What is the size of the pocket mentioned in the script, and how much territory has been taken by the Ukrainians?

The pocket is described as being about 35 miles long and about 14 miles deep at its deepest point. Approximately 530 square kilometers of territory have been taken by the Ukrainians, with fighting ongoing in an area about half that size again.

What does the presence of scrap metal on the sides of vehicles indicate according to the script?

The presence of scrap metal on the sides of vehicles indicates that they have been in combat, as soldiers often add scrap metal as a guard against incoming missiles, known as 'cope cages'.

Why are the Russians transferring heavy metal from one combat area to the next as described in the script?

The script suggests that the Russians are transferring heavy metal to respond to the Ukrainian offensive, possibly as a way to redeploy forces and resources to where they are most needed, such as the contested pocket area.

What does the script imply about the Ukrainian strategy in opening this pocket into Russian territory?

The script implies that the Ukrainian strategy is to force the Russians to redeploy their forces, particularly their quality troops and equipment, away from other combat areas like V Chans and the Donbas, to deal with the incursion into their territory.

What is the significance of the Ukrainian forces committing quality troops and equipment to this operation as mentioned in the script?

The commitment of quality troops and equipment indicates that the Ukrainians are serious about maintaining and defending the pocket. It suggests a strategic intent to hold the territory and challenge the Russians to reclaim it.

How does the script describe the potential impact of this incursion on future negotiations for territory and ceasefire?

The script suggests that the incursion may not necessarily help in future negotiations, as it would require the Ukrainians to hold onto the territory during negotiations, which the analyst doubts will be possible by the next year.

What is the historical context provided in the script regarding the last time Russian territory was invaded?

The script mentions that the last time Russian territory was invaded was in June 1941 during Operation Barbarossa, when Hitler's forces attacked the Soviet Union.

What does the script suggest about the Ukrainians' ability to make a fight of it and cost the Russians dearly?

The script suggests that the Ukrainians believe they can put up a strong resistance and make the Russians pay a high price in terms of resources and possibly casualties to regain their territory.

What is the purpose of the Ukrainian offensive according to the script's analysis?

The script suggests that the purpose of the offensive is to make a point to the rest of the world, to impress upon Russian civilians that this is a war, not a counterterrorist operation, and to force the Russians to redeploy their quality troops to deal with the incursion.

What additional capabilities have the Ukrainian forces deployed with their brigades as described in the script?

The Ukrainian forces have deployed engineering equipment, counter-mining equipment, air defenses, long-range mortars, and multiple launch rockets, indicating a serious and well-equipped commitment to the operation.