IMPORTANT: Final *BEAR TRAP* Before Bitcoin Runs Too $100k Plus! Market In Good Health! BIG DATA INC
Summary
TLDRIn this cryptocurrency market update, the host discusses the volatile week in the market, attributing it to the unwinding of the Japanese Yen carry trade. Despite the turbulence, the economy and markets are believed to be in good health, with the recent dip seen as a potential 'bull trap' setting the stage for a significant bullish move. The video delves into technical analysis, suggesting Bitcoin could reach $100,000, and touches on macroeconomic factors, including the Federal Reserve's policies and their impact on global liquidity, which are expected to favor risk-on assets like crypto.
Takeaways
- 😀 The cryptocurrency market has experienced a volatile week, with the most significant fluctuations since 2020, attributed to the unwinding of the Japanese Yen carry trade.
- 📊 Despite the volatility, the speaker believes the market and economy are in good health and that the downturn was a necessary step back to move forward more significantly.
- 📈 The video discusses the possibility of a 'bull trap' in the market, suggesting that the recent dip might be a precursor to a significant upward movement.
- 💰 Bitcoin is highlighted as being in a potential bull flag pattern, with a broadening structure that could lead to a price surge towards $100,000 or more.
- 📉 The speaker notes a lack of volume during Bitcoin's pullback, suggesting a consolidation phase before a possible breakout.
- 🌐 The video mentions positive institutional and retail interest in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, despite the market's recent turmoil.
- 💡 The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding market phases and capitalizing on them rather than attempting to trade every short-term fluctuation.
- 🚀 Anticipated macroeconomic factors, such as potential easing of U.S. interest rates, are expected to have a positive impact on the market and cryptocurrencies.
- 📅 Upcoming economic indicators, such as PPIs and CPIs, are highlighted as crucial for market direction, with the Federal Reserve's actions on interest rates being a key focus.
- 📊 The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, is discussed, with its decline often signaling an improvement in market conditions.
- 🌐 The speaker suggests that a weakening of the U.S. dollar, driven by potential Federal Reserve actions, could lead to a positive environment for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Q & A
What is the main focus of the video update?
-The main focus of the video update is to discuss the recent volatility in the cryptocurrency market, analyze the potential for a bull flag in Bitcoin's price action, and provide insights into the broader market trends and upcoming economic indicators.
What does the speaker believe about the recent market volatility?
-The speaker believes that the recent market volatility, which was the most since March 2020, was a one-step back for the market to take multiple steps forward and that it was a potential bear trap.
What is the speaker's view on the economy's health?
-The speaker believes that the economy is in pretty good health, contrary to some negative perceptions, and that the market is poised for a positive movement.
What is the potential price target for Bitcoin mentioned in the script?
-The potential price targets for Bitcoin mentioned in the script are around $100,000 and potentially above $150,000, based on the broader pattern being observed.
What does the speaker think about the retail involvement in the cryptocurrency market?
-The speaker thinks that retail involvement in the cryptocurrency market is still very low and that retail investors have not yet fully entered the market, which is why institutionally chosen coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum have done well.
What is the significance of the VIX in the context of the market update?
-The VIX, which measures market volatility, is mentioned to highlight the recent spike in volatility being compared to the levels seen in March 2020. The speaker suggests that a collapse in the VIX could indicate an upcoming uptrend in the markets.
What upcoming economic indicators are mentioned in the script?
-The upcoming economic indicators mentioned in the script include PPIs, CPIs, and the potential actions of the Federal Reserve, which are expected to influence the direction of the markets.
How does the speaker view the role of institutional investors in the current market situation?
-The speaker views institutional investors as having a significant role in the current market situation, noting that they have been buying the dip and positioning themselves, which could lead to a bullish trend.
What is the speaker's opinion on trading versus holding in the current market?
-The speaker believes that holding and being in the right tokens could potentially be more profitable than actively trading in the current market, as trying to time the market can be burdensome and difficult to master.
What is the speaker's stance on the future performance of crypto assets?
-The speaker is bullish on the future performance of crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin, and believes that they are set to outperform in a risk-on environment as global liquidity conditions improve.
What macro factors does the speaker believe are driving the market?
-The speaker believes that macro factors such as the strength of the US dollar (Dixie), global liquidity, and the potential easing of interest rates by central banks are the main drivers of the market.
Outlines
📈 Crypto Market Update and Potential Bull Trap Analysis
The speaker begins by greeting the audience and setting the stage for a comprehensive daily cryptocurrency market update. They reflect on the week's events, highlighting the Japanese Yen carry trade unwinding and the market's volatility, which was the most significant since the March 2020 pandemic. Despite the turbulence, the speaker maintains a positive outlook, suggesting that the economy and markets are fundamentally healthy and that the downturn could be a precursor to significant growth. The video starts with a clip from Yahoo Finance discussing the possibility of a 'bull trap', a situation where the market drops sharply but then recovers, indicating a false bearish signal. The speaker agrees with this perspective and provides technical analysis, suggesting that Bitcoin is in a broadening structure that could lead to a price surge towards $100,000, with a potential to exceed $150,000 based on broader patterns. The speaker also discusses upcoming economic indicators such as PPIs and CPIs, which are crucial for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, and how these could positively impact the markets and risk assets.
🤔 Retail Involvement and Market Cycle Dynamics
In this paragraph, the speaker delves into the current state of retail involvement in the cryptocurrency market, suggesting that it is relatively low. They argue that institutionally favored coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have performed well due to significant institutional investment, while retail investors have yet to fully enter the market. The speaker uses their YouTube channel's viewership as a barometer for retail interest, noting that despite high viewership for certain topics, the overall audience is still small compared to the global population, indicating vast potential for growth. They also discuss market cycles, emphasizing the importance of understanding the market's phase and the broader trend rather than focusing on short-term fluctuations. The speaker believes that holding and being in the right tokens will yield better results than active trading in the upcoming market phase, which they predict will be bullish.
📊 Market Volatility, VIX Analysis, and Upcoming Economic Indicators
The speaker continues by discussing the market's volatility, referencing the VIX index, which spiked significantly in the past week, making it one of the most volatile weeks since the 2020 pandemic. They analyze the VIX's historical behavior, noting that when it spikes, markets tend to fall, and when it retreats, markets rise. The speaker anticipates a collapse in the VIX, suggesting an upcoming uptrend in the market. They also touch on the potential weakening of the US Dollar, which they believe will be beneficial for risk-on environments and cryptocurrencies. The speaker provides a macroeconomic perspective, discussing global liquidity and its drivers, particularly the strength of the US Dollar and its implications for risk assets. They predict that upcoming economic data, including PPIs and CPIs, will be positive and that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates, which will further support the market and cryptocurrency growth. The speaker concludes by summarizing the market's current state and expressing optimism for the future performance of cryptocurrencies.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Cryptocurrency Market Update
💡Japanese Yen Carry Trade
💡Volatility
💡Bull Trap
💡Bitcoin
💡Bull Flag
💡Federal Reserve
💡CPI (Consumer Price Index)
💡Retail Involvement
💡VIX
💡Dixie
Highlights
The cryptocurrency market experienced its most volatile week since 2020, with the Japanese Yen carry trade unwinding.
Markets and economy are believed to be in good health despite the volatility, suggesting a potential for growth.
Discussion of a potential bull trap in the market, with the belief that the recent downturn could lead to significant upward movement.
Bitcoin is analyzed within a broadening structure, suggesting a bull flag that may lead to a price increase.
Price predictions for Bitcoin suggest a potential run towards the $100,000 mark, with a possibility of exceeding $150,000.
News from Morgan Stanley regarding market volatility and the VIX is mentioned, indicating market stability.
Upcoming economic indicators such as PPIs and CPIs are discussed, with expectations that they will influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
The potential positive ramifications of easing the dollar for the markets and risk assets are highlighted.
A belief that the current market phase is leading to an uptrend, particularly for altcoins, which are yet to see significant growth.
A clip from Yahoo Finance suggests that the recent price drop in Bitcoin may have been a bear trap, costing traders.
Fund flows analysis indicates institutional and retail interest in Bitcoin and Ether, despite market turmoil.
The importance of understanding market phases and capitalizing on them is emphasized over attempting to trade every fluctuation.
A detailed Bitcoin price analysis predicts a significant upward move, potentially breaking the $100K mark.
Macroeconomic factors are discussed, suggesting that the economy is not as bad as some suggest, with potential for a market uptrend.
The VIX is analyzed to show market volatility and its inverse relationship with market performance.
The potential weakening of the Dollar and its implications for global liquidity and risk-on environments are discussed.
Expectations for positive CPI data and its impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are highlighted.
Crypto is positioned as potentially the best-performing asset in the upcoming market conditions.
Reports of institutional buying during the dip suggest confidence in the market's recovery.
A summary of the video's content, emphasizing the potential for significant market movements and the importance of staying informed.
Transcripts
happy Sunday ladies and gentlemen all in
crypto here and welcome back guys what
is going to be nothing short of another
jam-packed daily cryptocurrency market
update with yours truly what a week it
has been and we've been sure to be
overly zealous in regards to actually
doubling up our daily Market updates
certainly on Monday and Tuesday and
covering exactly what took place there
was a lot of the Japanese Yen carry
trade unwinding going on and the market
saw the most volatile day slash week
since 2020 obviously the March 2020
events um and actually the markets are
still in pretty good health and we think
the economy also is so we truly believe
that this was just one step back in
order to go multiple steps forward we're
going to be looking at that from a
technical point of view we're going to
be starting the video off with a clip I
believe from Yahoo finance that talk
about the possibilities of this being a
bll trap which we've very much just
believe it is uh we'll be looking at
Bitcoin looking at the potential for
this being a bull flag Bitcoin very much
in a kind of broadening structure very
kind of bull flages we'll be giving you
some price predictions on the back end
of this Bitcoin may be setting up and
this sideways momentum may be setting up
just a pullback that is ultimately going
to lead to a run to around about the
$100,000 Mark now we have a price brick
of 151,000 I do think potentially it's
going to go above and beyond that based
on a broader pattern that we've been um
watching but we'll put all that into to
context and then we're going to be
looking at a little bit of news we've
got news from Morgan Stanley we'll talk
about the market volatility um and we'll
look at the vix we'll look at the sort
of standing of the markets and then
we're going to be getting into the week
ahead because it's going to be a very
interesting week ahead it's a very
interesting week that we're coming off
the back end of um but in the week ahead
we've got things like ppis and of course
we've got cpis which is of course one of
the fed's main mandates the Federal
Reserve are on the cusp of going for
um sort of quantitive easing or
certainly lowering interest rates easing
those interest rates and just like we
saw the strengthening of a currency like
the Yen have a ramification a negative
ramification on the markets we think
there's going to be a positive
ramification for the markets with the
easing of the dollar uh certainly uh the
implications that has for the dixing and
the implications that has for risk
assets broadly we think it's an amazing
sort of uh time that we have ahead of us
ladies and gentlemen I truly do believe
that my money is well and truly where my
mouth is and I want everybody to know
about that that's what this Channel and
these daily Market updates are all about
helping you guys navigate what is a
treacherous market and it's well and
truly my belief that last week was a
great example of why I believe people
shouldn't try and trade this Market they
should just understand where the
market's at in regards to its phase and
what's to come uh and capitalize off of
that and we think there's a kind of
phase two uh uptrend ahead of us for the
space generally and altcoins really are
yet to hear that starting pistol if you
will so
without further Ado let's dive into
everything let's start things off with a
clip from Yahoo finance that are calling
this a bear trap we'll look at it
contextually a Bitcoin chart then we'll
get into everything we've got to be
getting into with you guys I'm going to
go ahead and mute my mic let's dive into
the well Bitcoin is up more than 5% as
investors look to regain some ground
from this week's selloff some Traders
believe the quick reversal suggests the
recent price drop may have been a bear
trap Yahoo finance markets and data
editor Jared blicky is tracking those
recent swings Jared Brad Bitcoin is a is
a uh basically a trap let's check out
the price action this week uh it's been
very volatile this is actually a
three-month look and uh you can see we
just had this dip uh all the way down to
about 48,000 there and for me 60,000 has
been the important level to watch and
I'm going to zoom out here I'm going to
put a year- to-day chart on here and
here's the 60,000 level we've below it
once twice and this is a third time each
time going a little bit below but then
climbing back above 60,000 these are all
false breakdowns you can call them bear
traps um and it costs Traders a a lot of
money and peace of mind but nevertheless
that's what's happening but another way
to look at it it's just in a little bit
of a flag here from a sustained up move
that's a one-year look and it's even
more apparent on the 5year so this is
just a tiny little flag here in the
grand scheme of things but it's painful
on a day-to-day basis now when I was
watching I've been following fund flows
as well we have all these new Bitcoin
spot Bitcoin ETFs and not only Bitcoin
but ether and we've seen some really
positive movements this week I think
overall the sector was uh lost about 250
million uh dollars or 250 billion
dollars but when you take into
consideration that a lot of that was out
of the grayscale entities uh you really
you get a positive netflow for Bitcoin
so I think it's positive that we have in
the midst of all this terminal turmoil
we still have a lot of institutional and
Retail interest in these funds
guys so I really don't think retail
largely is here very low retail
involvement I think in in in in crypto
generally that's why we've seen the
coins that we have seen Bitcoin ethereum
salana do well because they're very
institutionally Chosen and we've seen
lots of flows in regards to etps retail
is still really yet to come and this is
how Market Cycles typically work retail
doesn't get in until uh institutions
have positioned yes retail like me and
you and I am retail don't trade with
hundreds of millions um retail like me
and you might be in and and speculating
on what's to come but the the general
population you know we've spoke about
our own uh kind of um barometer as a
popular crypto YouTube channel you know
on certain topics like hbar ICP for
example we get some of the most watched
content frequently we're really at the
Forefront of content in regards to those
alt coins and many others out there uh
even things like salana
um 10 to 20,000 people in the grand
scheme of YouTube's 2. .1 billion users
monthly or the 8 to9 billion people that
exist on the
planet there's there's an amazing kind
of um infinite growth that is still to
be had in regards to um users population
and and and speculators we also uh heard
there that we'll talk about from a chart
point of view in just a second but he
also talks um about how it was a very
volatile week it was indeed and actually
when you look at crypto on a more zoomed
out approach which is what we to do
we're not interested in capturing
shortterm upside or downside we're
interested in the broader Trend so we
don't want to get people out when the
market is selling off um because we
think it's going to be you're going to
put a burden on yourself that I don't
think many people can master and that is
getting out getting back in getting out
getting back in I actually think you're
going to make more money than traders in
what's to come just by sitting in the
move and being smart and in the right
tokens that's my honest um belief and I
think the markets are in great standing
and I think given the fact that it was
one of the most volatile weeks and we'll
talk about that in just a second we'll
look at the vix and a number of other
things the markets are generally in good
standing it had everything to do with
the Y carry trade you know this is a
pullback for Bitcoin on this pullback
one nice thing to note is the lack of
volume you're seeing a declining volume
into this this is very much just flages
now we have that $151 Target for Bitcoin
Bitcoin is going to be the tide that
rides and sinks All Ships we yet to see
Bitcoin dominance role there's a
beautiful picture that's being painted
um now if you want to draw this as a
bull flag and we're going to take the
bull flag from here to here we're going
to ignore this just here depending on
how you measure your bull flag some
people like to measure it from the uh
last touch on the lower band of support
some like to measure on the breakout and
we're yet still to break out so this is
rough you could potentially if we go off
the last touch here be looking at
$130,000 Bitcoin there's a number of
ways you could draw this bull flag so
let's put them all on here but I do
think you're looking at a push towards
that 100K if you wanted to just take it
from down
here you could do I think taking it from
where we've took it from is just fine
you know there's going to be a number of
predictions that you're going to get
this one's getting you to 100K I
honestly think that once you break this
you are very much marching your way
forward to that 100K Mark and then
eventually that 150k Mark and
potentially above and uh Beyond it so I
think that that is to come the stage is
very much set we know on a macro point
of view I think we're in good standing
the economy is not doing as bad at all
as what many people are saying it is I
know there's a lot of turbulence going
on in the
world certainly here in the UK and I
dare not say anything about it through
fear of imprisonment um literally um
it's a very be careful Allin uh
interesting situation that is taking
place here in the UK uh and I have got a
lot to say on it but I'll hold my tongue
for now I think a lot of people have a
lot to say on it in all in all honesty
um but we are very much I believe
looking at a pretty pretty spectacular
move whether you want to use this as
your kind of flag pole or whether you
want to use this shorter one as your
flag pole I think this was the last sort
of serious dip which also coincides with
our right shoulder for our head and
shoulders you know you are looking I
believe at a a pretty significant move
and let's put these Targets on now to um
the upside for Bitcoin and it's just
waiting to sort of break out uh and and
and complete what is very much I believe
a a bare trap and if we look at the
markets generally it was the uh most
volatile week since the uh something
outbreak which of course took place in
March 2020 you can see this is the vix
so let's zoom out on the vix let's get
rid of the 30 weekly moving average
because it's not really needed here this
was March
2020 and look at the volatility you saw
on the back end of this so typically vix
down markets up it was more volatile
than uh obviously what took place with
the reverse repo that caused easing
initially you know and and further back
from that you know we're getting to sort
of
2008 levels and I believe the
market certainly if we throw the S&P on
which is going to come up in a nice
Bitcoin
orange is going to do very well on the
back end of this so when the vix spikes
the markets go down when it starts to
come down the market start to go up and
we're seeing a real collapse in the vix
after aggressive Spike um all again I
believe caused on the Japanese uh Nicki
or sorry Yen trade certainly the Nicki
bearing the brunt of that um but there's
more contagion for markets and I think
the Nick I did a video yesterday where I
talked about my macro reasons and we're
looking at technically what we're
looking at here just for Bitcoin but we
could do it with the altcoin market we
could do it with the small stock market
as well we did it briefly yesterday we
covered in yesterday's video do go and
watch that our macro reason for be being
bullish based on global liquidity a main
driver of that being the Dixie and its
strength uh and we looked at the fact
that actually Monday was a great
educational day because it really showed
us the effects of strength in the Forex
market and the ramifications that has on
risk and we're about to get a weakening
I believe of the Dixie which is the main
driver I think of global liquidity and
that's ultimately going to be a good
time for risk on environments and crypto
I believe is very much in an up Trend
against those risk on environments we've
looked at that a lot previously um and
he's going to really start to outperform
it's going to coincide with this sort of
next run out of this bull flag this kind
of broadening Channel that I think
you're very much setting up to do
talking about volatility you know if you
look at something like the S&P for
example this I believe is just a
pullback in what is a broader uptrend
you've still got to close this Gap we
could see that coming on the back end of
next week on the topic of next week it's
going to be an interesting week we've
got UK data that's going to be an
interesting one to watch we've got us
ppis expectations are for this to come
down
slightly um lower than the previous one
I think the previous one was 0.2 this is
coming out
0.1 and then the big one for me of
course is um us CPI and of course you
got UK CPI now if you look at true
inflationary stats these are essentially
where the fed and uh the UK government
want them we know the UK has already
started to lower interest rates um the
US is about to follow that's going to
ease the Dixie we've got targets for the
pound against the dollar the Euro
against the dollar and potentially the
Japanese Yen against the dollar um which
all point in the same direction along
with collapsing yields and and forward
guidance but the expectations for cpis
are 2.9 that's positive data I think
really for me I'm interested in just
getting round to next month and seeing
what unemployment comes out because once
that scares out the way of you know I
think and that growth scare as Tom Lee
said I think the markets are really
setting up for a real significant move
and the probabilities now are that the
FED cut rates in September by 25 basis
points quar perc and potentially it's
it's about even with a 50 basis points
and the FED
typically cut rates at rather an
aggressive manner in my own personal uh
experience or if certainly when you look
at the charts and know a pivot doesn't
always result in a crash it in 2000s and
2008 2000s it was already crashing when
they pivoted 2008 you know obviously the
housing issue we don't have those issues
now and I think generally data support
a good time ahead of us and I think
crypto is going to be the best
performing asset within that so that's
it for me ladies and gentlemen just a
short sweet compact one um interesting
clip to start the video off one that we
thought was worth sharing because we
very much agree with it um we saw from
JP Morgan and Gman Sachs they both
reported that um institutions bought the
dip very crypto kind of phrase uh we
also saw from Richard Tang the binance
CEO that we saw I think it was 1.4 1.2
billion doar worth of inflows in cash
into binance suggesting they bought the
dip it's going to be very interesting to
look and we will look at it tomorrow at
coin shares report and of course report
on that for you on a magical Monday so
that's it from me ladies and gentlemen
I'm going to love and leave you on that
note if you've enjoyed the content like
us appreciate so as a comment see each
and every one of you in the next YouTube
video thanks a lot for watching guys see
you in the next one
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