How Bad is the Tech Market Right Now

Summary

The speaker discusses the challenging job market, particularly in tech, with layoffs and fierce competition even for experienced professionals. They mention the impact of AI on job expectations and the difficulty of getting noticed with thousands of applications. The speaker also touches on the potential benefits of lower interest rates for startups and the hope for improvement in the job market, emphasizing the importance of saving and being grateful for current employment.

Takeaways

• 💼 The speaker mentions a significant layoff at a large insurance company where they used to work, which has reduced its workforce from around 40,000 to 26,000 in just a few years.
• ⏳ The speaker left the company at what they consider the perfect time, as they likely would have been affected by the layoffs.
• 💻 Job hunting is difficult right now, with some people submitting hundreds of applications without success. The speaker mentions a tech sales professional who has been out of work for 18 months and has applied to 800-900 jobs.
• 👴 Age seems to be a significant factor in the job market, particularly in tech, where older workers face challenges securing new positions.
• 🔗 The speaker feels that personal referrals and recommendations on LinkedIn may not be very effective unless the referrer has significant influence within the company.
• 🏦 The speaker suggests that high federal interest rates are making it difficult for companies to borrow money for research and development, particularly in startups, which is stalling job creation.
• 📉 Generative AI and automation are expected to increase productivity by up to 50%, which may reduce the need for as many developers, potentially impacting tech job opportunities.
• 📊 The speaker observes that the tech job market is currently bleak, with increased competition and fewer opportunities, even for those with impressive resumes from top tech companies.
• ⚖️ Other industries, like law, are also facing tough job markets, suggesting that the issue isn't confined to tech alone.
• 💡 The speaker advises those who are currently employed to save money and invest in their 401(k), as the job market may remain challenging for several more years.

Q & A

What is the speaker's concern regarding the job market?

The speaker is concerned about the difficulty of finding work, as evidenced by the layoffs at a large insurance company where they used to work, and the high number of applications people are submitting without success.

Why did the speaker leave their previous company?

The speaker left their previous company at the right time, as they believe they would have likely been laid off due to the new CEO's decisions and the company's downsizing.

How has the company's workforce changed in recent years?

The company's workforce has significantly reduced, going from around 40,000 employees to approximately 26,000 in just a couple of years.

What is the speaker's perspective on the impact of AI on the job market?

The speaker suggests that the rise of AI, particularly generative AI, may increase productivity expectations, potentially leading to a reduced need for developers and intensifying job market competition.

What challenges does the speaker's friend in tech sales face?

The friend has been out of work for about 18 months, having submitted 800 to 900 job applications without success, which the speaker attributes partly to his age being close to 60.

What role does the speaker believe employee referrals might play in the current job market?

The speaker is unsure about the effectiveness of employee referrals, suggesting that having influence within a company to secure a job might be the only way to help others get hired in the current competitive market.

How does the speaker view the potential impact of interest rate changes on the job market?

The speaker hopes that a drop in interest rates, as discussed for September, could spur more development and research, particularly benefiting startups, but acknowledges the current high rates make borrowing for investment too costly.

What is the speaker's opinion on the current state of the tech market?

The speaker finds the tech market to be bleak, with fierce competition and even experienced professionals struggling to find jobs.

Why does the speaker consider staying in the DC region beneficial?

The speaker values the DC region for its proximity to the federal government and the abundance of jobs in government contracting, which could be a fallback option if needed.

What advice does the speaker give to those currently employed?

The speaker advises those with jobs to be grateful and to save money, especially in a 401(k), as a precaution against potential future job loss.

How does the speaker describe the current situation for professionals outside the tech industry?

The speaker indicates that the job market is tough not just for tech professionals but for everyone, including their friend who is an attorney and is also struggling to find a job.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Job Market Challenges Amidst Layoffs and AI Advancements

The speaker reflects on the current job market, particularly for tech professionals, drawing from personal experience and anecdotes. They mention the impact of a new CEO on a large insurance company, leading to significant layoffs and downsizing. Despite leaving the company at a fortunate time, they express concern for friends who have struggled to find new employment, with one individual applying to nearly 900 positions without success. The speaker also discusses the potential for AI to increase productivity expectations, which could lead to a reduced need for developers. They conclude by expressing hope for improvement in the job market, but acknowledge the current challenges faced by both tech and non-tech professionals.

05:01

😟 The Bleak Outlook for Tech and Beyond: A Personal Perspective

In this paragraph, the speaker delves deeper into the difficulties of the current job market, emphasizing the fierce competition even for those with impressive resumes from renowned companies. They express concern about the future, especially as they age, and the potential need to rely on government contractor jobs due to the abundance of opportunities in the DC region. The speaker also shares their experience with government background checks and the decision to remain in the private sector. They acknowledge the broader impact on various professions, not just tech, and advise listeners to save money and be grateful for their current employment. The speaker concludes with a somber outlook for the next few years, suggesting that the situation will not improve soon and urging caution and preparedness.

Keywords

💡Job Market

The 'Job Market' refers to the environment where employers and potential employees interact to fill job vacancies. In the video, the speaker discusses the difficulty of finding work, mentioning the high number of applications and the fierce competition, which is central to the theme of the video.

💡Layoffs

Layoffs are a reduction in the workforce, typically due to company restructuring or economic downturns. The speaker mentions layoffs at a previous company, where many long-term employees were let go, illustrating the harsh reality of the job market.

💡Insurance Company

An 'Insurance Company' is a business that provides insurance policies to individuals or entities. The speaker refers to a large insurance company where they used to work, which underwent significant layoffs and downsizing.

💡Tech Sales

Tech Sales refers to the sales of technology products or services. The video mentions a person in tech sales who has been out of work for 18 months, highlighting the struggles faced by professionals in the tech industry.

💡Age Discrimination

Age Discrimination is prejudice against individuals based on their age. The speaker implies that being older, such as approaching 50 or beyond, can negatively impact job prospects, as seen with the 60-year-old individual who has struggled to find employment.

💡Employee Referral

An 'Employee Referral' is when a current employee recommends a candidate for a job opening. The speaker expresses doubt about the effectiveness of referrals in the current job market and their own ability to influence hiring decisions.

💡Interest Rates

Interest Rates are the cost of borrowing money, set by central banks. The speaker suggests that high interest rates could be hindering development and investment in startups, affecting job creation and the overall economy.

💡Generative AI

Generative AI refers to artificial intelligence systems that can create new content, such as text, images, or music. The video discusses how this technology might increase productivity expectations, potentially reducing the need for human developers.

💡Productivity

Productivity is the efficiency of production, often measured as output per unit of input. The speaker speculates that companies might expect a 50% boost in productivity from engineers due to the use of generative AI, which could impact job availability.

💡Fierce Competition

Fierce Competition describes a highly competitive environment. The video mentions that even people with experience at top tech companies are facing difficulties in securing jobs, indicating the intense competition in the job market.

💡Federal Government Jobs

Federal Government Jobs are positions within the government at the national level. The speaker considers these jobs as a potential fallback due to the stability they offer, especially in regions with a high concentration of government-related work.

💡Background Checks

Background Checks are investigations into an individual's history, often required for jobs involving sensitive information or national security. The speaker mentions having gone through such checks for government contractor positions, indicating the thoroughness required for these roles.

Highlights

The speaker reflects on the job market, particularly for those in the tech industry, noting the challenges faced by many.

Mention of a large insurance company that has undergone significant layoffs, reducing its workforce by thousands.

The impact of a new CEO on company culture and job security, leading to the speaker's decision to leave.

Personal anecdotes about friends struggling to find employment despite extensive experience.

The speaker's observation of the high number of job applications and the difficulty of securing interviews.

Concerns about ageism in the tech industry, with older workers facing greater challenges in finding jobs.

The potential ineffectiveness of LinkedIn recommendations and referrals in a highly competitive job market.

Speculation on how interest rates might affect job creation and the economy, with potential implications for startups.

The impact of high federal interest rates on the ability of companies to invest in research and development.

The drying up of investment opportunities and the challenges faced by angel investors.

Discussion on the role of AI and generative AI in increasing productivity expectations and potentially reducing job availability.

The speaker's personal experience with government job opportunities and the complexities of background checks.

Concerns about the future of the tech market and the potential long-term effects of AI on job availability.

The decrease in recruiter outreach as a sign of a tougher job market, affecting not just tech but other industries as well.

Advice for those currently employed to save money and be grateful for their jobs in the current economic climate.

The speaker's hope for an eventual improvement in the job market and the return of recruiter activity.

A closing thought on the importance of financial preparedness and the uncertainty of the job market in the coming years.

Transcripts

hey everybody what up uh so I'm

wondering how bad it it is out there for

uh for most of y'all that are actually

looking for work I bring that up because

um I've had a few

people that I've worked with for a long

time at a previous company I mean I

spent over a decade there and couple

years ago they got a new CEO and um I

mean the place has just got it like uh

people that have been working there 15

20 30 years like pretty much uh you know

they've laid off at least 25% and I left

it the perfect time actually cuz I

probably would have been a casualty of

that as

well um they're a large insurance

company and

uh basically at one point had like

40,000 employees I think they're

probably down to like 26 or so now uh

just in a matter of a couple of years

and it doesn't seem like uh that is

going to stop so anyway I I left at the

perfect time but um you know thankfully

I haven't had to be out there on the

market but I've heard some pretty

terrible stories I mean just even uh

reading on Hacker News or or Reddit of

the amount of people uh or really the

amount of applications that people are

putting out there to try to get a job

and then I know several people

personally so this one guy was in like

uh Tech sales and he's um he's been out

of work for about 18 months and has put

in I think 800 or 900

applications and granted this guy's a

little bit older though I mean he's

actually almost 60 so I know that like

it's not going to be good for anybody

trying to be intact when you're

approaching 50 or

Beyond uh you could possibly make the

argument for younger than that too um

and anyway so a couple people have

reached out recently um for this uh this

company I used to work

for and just you know asking for

recommendations or

referrals on LinkedIn and you I don't

know that any of that stuff really helps

um well maybe it does I mean unless you

have like like sway in a company to get

people hired uh even if I wanted to get

people hired even if I knew that they

did a good job and I've worked with them

before and and all that um I personally

speaking feel like I don't have the sway

to you know shoe them into a company but

that might be like really the only way

at this point

because every single job you know it

seems like it's gonna have thousands of

of of applications and um you know

there's there's a good possibility your

your resume is not even looked

at so mainly I'm just curious uh from

the audience like what are your

experiences lately I mean um I hope that

it gets better soon I mean I maybe if

they drop interest rates like they're

talking about doing in September we

could start spurring some more develop M

and uh you know research and development

specifically that that really benefits

startups but right now with the federal

interest rate as high as it is from what

I understand and I'm no expert but uh it

just it's too costly to basically borrow

a bunch of money to fund

development for something that may or

may not make

money so as those interest rates go up

those opportunities go down because most

companies can't afford

to spend hundreds of millions of dollars

trying to invest in something that in

all likelihood is not going to work out

it's not going to make any profit and

then you know that that also is like all

the angel investors and such and uh it

just seems like it's all dried up you

know it's all dried

up and I don't know how much of that has

to do with AI but I do know that with

the whole AI craze generative Ai and all

that developers are expected to do more

and it's already been that way so

we have this tool now at our at our

disposal it doesn't really take our job

but it does actually make

things a lot easier you know

so it would seem to me the expectation

is that companies are going to be able

to tap into generative Ai and they're

probably going to expect somewhere

around a 50% boost in productivity

pretty much every

engineer

which you know right there and none of

these numbers are exact just my just my

observations and my guesses really but

if that is the case then obviously you

need 50% less developers to do the same

amount of work

and I'm just hoping that'll change

soon but um but yeah I mean I don't

really know how to to help people that

even if if they were close to me I mean

I can make an employee referral or

something like that because some of

these people I can definitely vouch for

they're good

programmers

but you know no nobody's really hiring

right now and and the competition is

just Fierce I mean people with Google

and Fang companies on their resume are

putting in 5 600 applications not

getting any any responses

so I really do hope it it changes and um

you know right now it seems pretty bleak

for the tech Market just

because as I get older um you know it's

certainly a concern that like well damn

you know I can't move away from a a hub

it looks like I'm in the middle of

nowhere actually sort of am but uh I'm

in the DC region so you know one of the

reasons why I stay here is because you

have the federal government and there's

tons of jobs so I'm hoping that you know

push comes to to shove that I'll be able

to land in one of these government

contractors or something like that if I

ever needed to and I've had those

opportunities in the past but I've

always just stayed in the the private

sector um you know that most of these

government contracts you have to go

through all these like uh the

complicated background background

searches and things and it depends

really even like the the basic uh

clearances and things require quite a

bit of uh background checks and all that

which I'm not concerned about I've

actually gone through that process in

the past and ended up declining a job uh

for both the FBI and another one was for

I don't even want to mention but a

different government agency that I

decided not to go with uh so yeah

biggest question is just like how bad is

it when is it going to get

better my answer to that is it's not

going to be anytime soon we have an

election coming up I don't know what

that's going to mean for anything really

but

um it just feels like it's going to take

several more years to sort of climb out

of this hole and see where we land with

generative Ai and what that's really

going to do to the job

market and hopefully again um

you know hopefully I start seeing the

recruiters come back because I'm sure

other people can relate but I would get

like four or five

recruiters contacting me every single

day on like LinkedIn or my email and

then now it's like once a week maybe

um and yeah

so tough time I guess to be a developer

but it's tough for pretty much everybody

too because I also know that I have a a

friend of mine that's that's an attorney

and uh staff counsel

and they've been putting out resumés and

not able to get any traction at all

either so I don't think it's just Tech I

mean we're we're in we're in for a

pretty rough I think next few years and

uh it'll get better I'm sure eventually

but definitely save your money if you

have a job like you should be saving

that money uh saving in your

401 because like I said that older guy

that I know who's been in this industry

now for um you know decades like 18

months out of work and he's just

depleting all of his

401 so if you have a job be grateful for

it and if you don't let me know what

your experiences all right talk to you

later bye