拜登連任機會大跌，特朗普再做總統。美國大選如何影響股市？ [ENG+中文CC]

阿豬 Ah Ju

31 May 202409:40

Summary

TLDRThis video discusses the potential impacts of the 2024 U.S. election on the stock market, focusing on the rematch between Trump and Biden. It highlights how market performance typically weakens in pre-election years but rebounds post-election as uncertainties clear. The video delves into industry-specific effects, noting sectors that could benefit from a Trump win, such as fossil fuel companies and U.S.-based manufacturers, and those at risk, like import-reliant businesses. It also touches on broader economic factors influencing the market, including AI, interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical conflicts.

Takeaways

🗳️ The 2024 U.S. election is a rematch between Trump and Biden, with significant implications for future domestic and foreign policies.
💼 AhJu, a professional investor with over a decade of experience in investment banks, provides insights on market impacts.
📊 Historical data shows the stock market tends to be weaker in the first half of election years due to uncertainties around the election outcome.
📈 Despite the overall weaker performance, the stock market usually rebounds post-election, with yearly returns similar to non-election years.
📊 Current U.S. stock performance has seen a 10% increase since January, with high stock allocations almost at historical levels.
⚠️ The market may adjust before the next election due to the strong performance, making it unpredictable.
🌐 Multiple factors influence the stock market, including AI's impact on business, potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, inflation, commodity prices, and geopolitical conflicts.
📊 Goldman Sachs has created an index reflecting stocks expected to benefit from a Trump win, which has performed well as his chances increase.
🛑 Trump's policies, such as easing oil company regulations and promoting 'Made in America' products, could benefit certain industries but harm others.
💼 Trump's tax cut policies and pro-business stance could benefit wealthy individuals and financial services companies.
🛑 Increased tariffs on imports, a key part of Trump's trade policy, may ultimately hurt the U.S. economy by raising prices and causing inflation.
🏭 Industries heavily reliant on imports or with high labor costs, such as consumer goods and hospitality, may suffer under Trump's policies.

Q & A

What is the significance of the 2024 U.S. election in terms of its candidates?
-The 2024 U.S. election is significant as it is the first time in 70 years that the same candidates, Trump and Biden, are running against each other in a rematch. Both candidates have previously served as U.S. Presidents, and they are also among the oldest to run for the office.
How does the U.S. stock market typically perform in election years compared to non-election years?
-According to the script, the U.S. stock market, represented by the S&P500 index, tends to be weaker in election years, especially in the first half of the year. This is due to the uncertainty surrounding the election outcome and its potential impact on the market. However, after the election, the market usually rebounds, and the average return for the year is similar to non-election years.
What is the current performance of U.S. stocks as mentioned in the script?
-The script mentions that U.S. stocks have increased by 10% since January of the current year, with both institutional investors and individuals actively buying stocks, leading to an almost historically high stock allocation.
What factors, aside from the election, could impact the U.S. stock market?
-Factors that could impact the U.S. stock market, as outlined in the script, include the impacts of AI on business, the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, inflation trends as indicated by commodity prices, commercial real estate issues, and geopolitical conflicts such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
How does the script suggest the stock market is forward-looking?
-The script suggests that the stock market is forward-looking by noting that stocks related to certain industries have already moved in anticipation of the potential election outcome. For example, stocks in industries expected to benefit from a Trump win have performed better as his chances of winning have increased.
What is the '2024 Republican Policy Pair Index' mentioned in the script?
-The '2024 Republican Policy Pair Index' is a basket of stocks created by Goldman Sachs that is expected to benefit if Trump wins the election. It includes stocks of companies that are likely to gain from Trump's policies and short positions on stocks expected to underperform.
Which industries are expected to benefit if Trump wins the election according to the script?
-Industries expected to benefit from a Trump win include oil companies, as he is likely to make it easier for them to obtain licenses and produce more fossil raw materials in the U.S. Other beneficiaries could be companies with production in the U.S., those planning to move operations back to the U.S., and financial services companies that may benefit from lower tax rates and reduced capital requirements for banks.
What are the potential negative impacts of Trump's trade policies as discussed in the script?
-The script discusses that Trump's trade policies, particularly increased tariffs on imported goods, could lead to a trade war, higher prices for consumers, inflation, and reduced business confidence. These policies could ultimately hurt the U.S. economy, especially low-income consumers, and companies that rely on imported goods or have high labor expense ratios.
How might Trump's labor market policies affect the U.S. economy according to the script?
-Trump's labor market policies, which aim to protect American jobs by making it harder for foreigners to work in the U.S. and by deporting illegal immigrants, could lead to a more understaffed labor market. This could result in higher labor costs, which might be passed on to consumers if companies have pricing power, or could negatively impact businesses that do not.
What is the potential impact on consumer industries if Trump's policies lead to higher production costs in the U.S.?
-If Trump's policies result in higher production costs due to increased tariffs and reduced access to cheap labor, consumer industries could face challenges. Companies with low margin profits may struggle to absorb these costs, and if they cannot pass on the increased costs to consumers, their business could suffer.
How can viewers find out more about companies that would benefit or suffer from Trump being president?
-Viewers can find more information about such companies by subscribing to the speaker's Patreon, where a free 7-day trial is mentioned, allowing them to access detailed insights after signing up.

Outlines

00:00

🗳️ U.S. Election Impact on Stock Market

The video script discusses the upcoming U.S. election featuring Trump vs. Biden, emphasizing the potential changes in domestic and foreign policies that could affect various industries and the stock market. It highlights the importance of being proactive rather than reactive to election outcomes, as the market is forward-looking. The presenter, AhJu, a seasoned investment banker, introduces the video's focus on how the election might impact the stock market. Historical data shows that stock markets tend to perform weaker in election years, especially in the first half, due to uncertainties surrounding the outcome. However, post-election, markets usually rebound as uncertainties are resolved. The script also notes the record age of the candidates and the unique nature of the rematch. The presenter suggests that while the election is a significant factor, other elements such as AI's impact on business, potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, inflation, commodity prices, commercial real estate issues, and geopolitical conflicts also influence market trends.

05:00

📊 Election-Related Stock Market Predictions and Trade Policies

This paragraph delves into the specific industries and stocks that could be affected by the election results, particularly if Trump wins. It outlines the creation of a '2024 Republican Policy Pair Index' by Goldman Sachs, which includes stocks expected to benefit from a Trump victory and those likely to underperform. The industries highlighted as potential winners include oil companies, U.S.-based manufacturers, and financial services firms that could benefit from Trump's pro-business policies and tax cuts. Conversely, the paragraph also discusses the potential negative impacts of Trump's trade policies, such as increased tariffs on imported goods, which could lead to higher prices, inflation, and reduced consumer purchasing power. The script questions the economic feasibility of protectionist trade policies and suggests that they could ultimately harm the U.S. economy, especially low-income consumers. It also touches on the labor market implications of stricter immigration policies and the potential for increased labor costs in certain industries.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡U.S. election

The U.S. election refers to the process of electing the President of the United States. In the video, it is highlighted as a significant event that can influence domestic and foreign policies, and consequently, the stock market and various industries. The script mentions a rematch between Trump and Biden, indicating the importance of the election outcome for future policy directions.

💡Domestic and foreign policy

Domestic and foreign policy are the sets of decisions and guidelines that a government follows to manage its internal and international affairs. The video script emphasizes that the election's outcome will change these policies, which in turn can have a positive or negative impact on the stock market and industries, as they set the direction for regulations and international relations.

💡Stock market

The stock market is a platform where shares of publicly traded companies are issued and traded. The script discusses how the U.S. election can affect the stock market's performance, with the market being forward-looking and reacting to the potential policy changes that may occur depending on who wins the election.

💡Investment banks

Investment banks are financial institutions that assist individuals, corporations, and governments in raising capital by underwriting or acting as the client's agent in the issuance of securities. The script introduces AhJu, a professional investor with over a decade of experience in investment banks, indicating the credibility and expertise behind the analysis provided in the video.

💡S&P500 index

The S&P500 index, or Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The video script uses the S&P500 index's average trend as a benchmark to compare stock market performance in election and non-election years.

💡Market adjustment

Market adjustment refers to the changes in the stock market's value or direction in response to new information or events. The script suggests that due to the strong performance of the stock market, an adjustment before the next election might not be surprising, indicating the market's sensitivity to external factors, including political events.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. The script mentions inflation as a factor that could affect the stock market, with the prices of commodities like oil, copper, and gold rising sharply, which can be an indicator of inflationary pressures.

💡Trade tariffs

Trade tariffs are taxes imposed on imported goods. The script discusses Trump's policy of increasing tariffs on imported products, especially from China, as a way to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and make American products more competitive. However, it also points out the potential negative consequences of such policies on the economy and consumers.

💡Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is a tax reform legislation in the United States passed in 2017. The video script refers to this act as a policy implemented by Trump during his previous term, which lowered tax rates for U.S. businesses and is suggested to be a policy he might revisit if re-elected.

💡Forward-looking market

A forward-looking market is one that anticipates and reacts to future events. The script mentions that the stock market is forward-looking, meaning it prices in expectations of future outcomes, such as the potential for certain industries to benefit or suffer based on the election results.

💡Patreon

Patreon is a platform that allows creators to earn a monthly income by providing exclusive rewards and experiences to their subscribers, or patrons. The script invites viewers to join Patreon for a free 7-day trial to learn more about companies that would benefit or suffer from Trump being president, indicating a source for more in-depth analysis.

Highlights

The U.S. election features a rematch between Trump and Biden, with potential significant impacts on domestic and foreign policy.

Market reactions to the election are forward-looking, making it crucial to pay attention before the results are announced.

AhJu, a professional investor with over a decade of experience, shares insights on market and investment.

This election is unique as it's the first rematch in 70 years with both candidates having previously served as president.

Trump and Biden are among the oldest presidents in U.S. history, with ages of 81 and 78 respectively on election day.

Historical data shows the stock market tends to be weaker in the first half of election years due to uncertainty.

Post-election, the stock market usually rebounds as uncertainties are resolved.

U.S. stocks have seen a 10% increase since January, with stock allocation reaching historical highs.

Market adjustments before the election are possible despite good performance, influenced by various factors including the election.

Goldman Sachs has created an index tracking stocks expected to benefit from a Trump win and those likely to underperform.

Trump's policies are expected to favor oil companies, making it easier to obtain licenses for fossil fuel production.

Trump's 'Make America Great Again' slogan includes creating jobs in the U.S. and making American products more competitive through tariffs.

Trump's previous tax cut policy is set to expire, and re-election may see a push for further tax reductions for businesses.

Industries expected to suffer under a Trump presidency include those heavily reliant on imported goods due to potential increased tariffs.

Economic estimates suggest that increased tariffs by the U.S. could ultimately harm its own economy due to retaliatory measures.

Trump's labor policies aim to protect American jobs, potentially making the labor market more understaffed and driving up labor costs.

Companies with high labor expense ratios, such as restaurants and hotels, may suffer from increased labor costs.

For a deeper analysis of which companies would benefit or suffer from Trump's presidency, a Patreon subscription is offered.