Why Tesla Stock is going to hit $400 way sooner than most people think...

Summary

The video discusses Tesla's stock potential, predicting a rise from $250 to $400 per share based on strong fundamentals rather than technical analysis. Over the past three years, Tesla's business has significantly improved, with sales, revenue, and profit nearly tripling, yet the stock price has dropped 50% from its peak. The presenter argues that the gap between the company's performance and stock price will inevitably close, highlighting Tesla's advancements in autonomy, energy, and humanoid robotics. A bonus checklist is offered for viewers interested in the presenter's investment insights and strategies.

Takeaways

• 🚀 Tesla's stock price is predicted to rise from $250 to $400 per share faster than most investors anticipate, based on the company's strong fundamentals rather than trading or technical analysis.
• 📈 Over the past three years, Tesla's business has nearly tripled, with significant improvements in sales, profit, and revenue, yet the stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
• 🕰 The speaker believes that time is the best friend for a great business like Tesla, which has been undervalued in the stock market, and this gap will eventually close.
• 🤖 Tesla's advancements in autonomy, energy deployment, and humanoid robotics position it ahead of the industry, with the potential to significantly increase its market value.
• 📊 Tesla's net income has increased by 1,000% over the past three years, and its revenue has grown by 160%, despite the stock price still being down 7% year-to-date.
• 🔑 The speaker attributes his investment insights to a simple system based on eight key elements, which he applies to evaluate companies like Tesla and others he has recommended.
• 💡 Tesla's FSD (Full Self-Driving) and Optimus (humanoid robotics) are seen as having the potential to be worth more than Tesla's current market cap, offering significant future value.
• 💰 The speaker emphasizes the importance of increasing revenues, cash, and pricing power, as well as having a founder CEO, recurring revenue, a large market, customer stickiness, and the ability to sell during crises.
• 🏆 The nine stocks recommended by the speaker in 2023, including Tesla, have on average returned 116%, outperforming the S&P 500 index.
• 🛠 The speaker invites viewers to use his investment principles, which are freely shared, and to explore resources like his Academy on Patreon and the Stock MVP software for further investment education.
• 🔗 For those interested in a community discussion on stocks and investment strategies, the speaker invites viewers to join his free Discord community, which has recently surpassed 12,000 members.

Q & A

What is the main thesis of the video regarding Tesla stock?

The main thesis is that Tesla stock will go from $250 to $400 per share much faster than most investors realize, based on the company's strong fundamentals and significant business growth over the past three years.

Why does the speaker believe Tesla's stock price will increase significantly?

The speaker believes Tesla's stock price will increase significantly because the company's business metrics, such as sales, profit, and revenue, have improved substantially over the past three years, while the stock price has not reflected this growth.

What is the speaker's opinion on the relevance of Tesla's current stock price fluctuations?

The speaker considers current stock price fluctuations almost irrelevant and emphasizes that the stock price will eventually align with the company's strong business performance.

What future developments does the speaker highlight as significant for Tesla?

The speaker highlights Tesla's advancements in autonomy, energy deployments, and humanoid robotics as significant future developments that will greatly impact the company's value.

What is the speaker's investment strategy or system for choosing stocks?

The speaker's investment strategy involves looking at eight elements: increasing revenues, increasing cash, a founder CEO, recurring revenue, pricing power, total addressable market (TAM), client stickiness, and the company's ability to sell during bad times.

How does the speaker view Tesla's net income and revenue growth over the past three years?

The speaker views Tesla's net income growth of 1,000% and revenue growth from $35 billion to $95 billion (almost tripling) over the past three years as clear indicators of the company's strong performance.

What is the speaker's perspective on Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Optimus projects?

The speaker believes Tesla's FSD and Optimus projects are incredibly valuable, potentially worth more than the current market cap of Tesla, and that these projects will become major revenue streams in the future.

What comparison does the speaker make between Tesla and other companies in terms of pricing power?

The speaker compares Tesla to Apple, suggesting that both companies sell products based on value rather than price. Tesla's ability to sell vehicles at a premium despite competition from cheaper models is highlighted as an example of its pricing power.

What other stocks does the speaker mention as having performed well in 2023?

The speaker mentions stocks like Google, Palantir, CrowdStrike, Bungie, SoFi, Anet, SMCI, Nvidia, and the S&P 500 as having performed well in 2023, with an average return of 116%.

What resources does the speaker offer for those interested in learning more about investing?

The speaker offers resources such as an investment academy on Patreon, a free Discord community, and a stock analysis tool called Stock MVP for those interested in learning more about investing and improving their stock analysis skills.

Outlines

00:00

🚀 Tesla's Stock Growth Based on Fundamentals

The first paragraph discusses the recent surge in Tesla's stock price due to impressive delivery numbers, but argues that the main story is the company's strong fundamentals. The speaker believes that Tesla's stock will rise from $250 to $400 per share much faster than investors anticipate, based on the company's growth over the past three years. Despite the stock being down 50% from its all-time high, the business has nearly tripled, and the gap between the stock price and the company's performance is expected to close. The speaker also mentions upcoming technologies like autonomy, energy deployments, and humanoid robotics, which will further boost Tesla's value.

05:00

📈 My Investment System and Successes

The second paragraph delves into the speaker's investment system, which led to successful predictions in 2023 for nine stocks, including Tesla, and an average return of 160% per stock. The speaker emphasizes that their success is not due to genius or gut feeling but a systematic approach. They outline eight key elements they look for in a company, such as increasing revenues, cash, a founder CEO, recurring revenue, pricing power, a total addressable market, customer stickiness, and the ability to sell during bad times. The speaker uses Tesla and Palantir as examples, highlighting their strong performance and the speaker's significant investment in both. They also invite viewers to join their Academy for further investment education and to use their stock analysis software, Stock MVP.

Keywords

💡Tesla Stock

Tesla Stock refers to the shares of Tesla, Inc., a company known for its electric vehicles and clean energy products. In the video, the speaker discusses the potential for Tesla's stock price to increase from $250 to $400 per share, based on the company's strong fundamentals and recent performance, which they believe is undervalued compared to the stock's current market price.

💡Fundamentals

Fundamentals in the context of the video relate to the underlying financial health and performance metrics of a company, such as sales, revenue, and profit. The speaker argues that Tesla's fundamentals have significantly improved over the past three years, with the business almost tripling, yet the stock price has not reflected this growth, indicating a potential for upward correction.

💡Delivery Numbers

Delivery numbers refer to the quantity of vehicles that Tesla has delivered to customers. The video mentions that Tesla's stock is gaining attention due to impressive delivery numbers, which is a key performance indicator for the company's success and a factor contributing to the positive outlook on its stock.

💡Autonomy

Autonomy, in the context of the video, refers to Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. The speaker highlights that this technology could give Tesla a quasi-monopolistic position in the market with high gross margins, as it is a significant differentiator for the company and a potential driver for future growth and stock value.

💡Energy Deployments

Energy deployments refer to the installation and activation of Tesla's energy products, such as solar panels and Powerwall batteries. The video script mentions that these deployments are doubling, indicating a growing segment of Tesla's business that could contribute to the company's overall revenue and stock price appreciation.

💡Humanoid Robotics

Humanoid robotics, as discussed in the video, pertains to Tesla's development of humanoid robots, such as the Tesla Bot. The speaker suggests that this technology represents a new growth curve for the industry and could significantly add to Tesla's market value in the future.

💡Net Income

Net income is the profit a company makes after all expenses have been deducted from its total revenue. The video emphasizes that Tesla's net income has increased by 1,000% over the past three years, a substantial growth that contrasts with the stock's performance, suggesting an undervaluation.

💡S-Curve

The S-Curve in the video refers to a growth model where a new technology or product follows a pattern of slow initial growth, rapid growth, and then maturity. The speaker uses this term to describe the potential trajectory of Tesla's humanoid robotics and FSD technologies, indicating that they are at the beginning of a significant growth phase.

💡Pricing Power

Pricing power is the ability of a company to set higher prices for its products without losing customers. In the video, it is mentioned that Tesla has pricing power, as it can sell its vehicles at a premium, reflecting the strong brand value and customer loyalty.

💡Market Cap

Market cap, short for market capitalization, is the total value of a company's outstanding shares of stock. The video discusses that Tesla's market cap of $700 billion may seem large but is insignificant compared to the potential value of FSD and Optimus once they become mainstream, indicating the perceived growth potential.

💡Investment System

The investment system mentioned in the video refers to a set of criteria or principles used by the speaker to evaluate and select stocks for investment. The speaker outlines eight elements that, when present in a company, signal a good investment opportunity according to their system, which they apply to companies like Tesla and others.

Highlights

Tesla stock is predicted to rise from $250 to $400 per share faster than most investors realize.

The prediction is based on fundamental analysis rather than trading or technical analysis.

Tesla's business has almost tripled over the past three years, with significant improvements in sales, profit, and revenue.

Despite business growth, Tesla's stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.

The stock's performance over the past three years has only increased by 15%, indicating a potential gap that will close.

The presenter believes that the best friend of a great business is time, which will eventually reflect in Tesla's stock price.

Tesla's autonomy is expected to dominate the market with an 80% gross margin due to its licensing strategy.

Energy deployments for Tesla are doubling, and the company is developing humanoid robotics ahead of the industry.

Tesla's net income has increased by 1,000% over the past three years, while its stock price has decreased by 50% from its peak.

The presenter's investment strategy is based on eight fundamental elements, which he applies to companies like Tesla and Palantir.

The presenter's nine stock picks for 2023 have provided an average return of 160% per stock.

The S&P 500 index has provided a 44% return in the same period, less than the presenter's stock picks.

The presenter's investment system is based on increasing revenues, cash, founder leadership, recurring revenue, pricing power, total market TAM, customer stickiness, and the ability to sell during bad times.

The presenter offers a free Academy for long-term investors and a community on Discord for stock discussions.

Stock MVP is a software created by the presenter to provide retail investors with a comprehensive tool for stock analysis.

The presenter emphasizes the importance of using a systematic approach to investing rather than relying on gut feelings or market timing.

Transcripts

hey everybody like always bottom line

comes first if you don't have time

here's The quick summary of what's going

to happen in this video now everybody's

talking about Tesla stock again because

it's up again because it had great

delivery numbers and it makes headlines

again but that's not the main story here

in fact it is almost Irrelevant in my

opinion what's going to happen with

Tesla stock it's going to go from $250

to $400 per share a lot faster than most

investors realize people think we have

all this time we don't now look the

reason this is going to happen doesn't

have to do with trading or technical

analysis it's based on fundamentals I

see a company that's doing a lot better

over the past 3 years the business has

almost tripled over the past three years

the company is doing way way more sales

more profit more Revenue every single

metric I look at it's gotten better

significantly over the past three years

and yet the stock is down 50% from the

all-time high and if I take a threeyear

price action the stock is up

15% so when they see a stock that's down

50% off the high and it's up only 15%

over the past 3 years while the business

has pretty much doubled if not tripled

to me that's a very clear sign of what's

going to happen the best friend of a

great business is time the Worst Enemy

by the way is also time but that's of a

bad business so if you have a great

business like Tesla and the stock price

is lagging behind the business

eventually that Gap is going to close it

always does and this is not going to be

any different so that's kind of the

bottom line here if you just needed that

you can go ahead and leave this video I

don't mine but don't click nothing don't

smash nothing don't buy nothing if you

want to stay I'm going to give you a

little bonus at the end of this video

I'm going to give you my checklist of

how I knew Tesla is going to go back up

when everybody was negative on the stock

how I knew the nine stocks I called in

2023 that gave me an average return of

160% per stock a lot of interesting

stuff in this analysis if you have a few

minutes spend it with me if not you got

the bottom line you're free to go no

hard feelings okay so about 3 weeks ago

I made a video and I told you hey Tesla

isn't going to stay below 100 for very

long it's just a question of time if you

watch that video you've made a lot of

money in fact you've made like 30% of

the past month that's great but now we

are in the next stage currently the

stock is at 250 and the question for a

lot of investor is is the stock going to

go to the next stage and why I think

it's going to go to the $400 region it's

not going to stay below 300 for very

long and here's my kind of logic behind

it as you know I'm not a Trader so I'm

just a fundamentals guy and as a

fundamentals guy here's what I'm seeing

autonomy which is going to be a quasi

monopolistic market for Tesla with 80%

gross margin because it's literally

licensing almost ready we have energy

deployments doubling and we have humanid

robotics basically going out and being

developed way before the rest of the

industry understands this is the next S

curve for the entire industry much like

with EVS where Tesla started before the

curve they're starting the human

robotics way before everybody else that

in itself is worth a lot more than the

current entire market cap of Tesla now

now the net income over the past 3 years

of Tesla is up

1,000% imagine a company that increases

its net income actual dollars by 1,000%

three years revenue is up 160% for that

time period but the stock is down 50%

from the all-time high in fact despite

the recent increase in the stock price

of 26% of the past 5 days the stock is

still down 7% year today while 10 Xing

the net income over the past three years

now the stock is getting cheaper while

the business is getting better it's a

no-brainer it's a w it's quite easy in

fact revenue of the past three years

went from $35 billion to $95 billion so

almost tripled stock is up 15% when I

see these gaps created when I see the

revenue goes up and basically 3 Xing

while the stock goes up by

15% I know that Gap is going to close I

told you 3 weeks ago this is going to

happen I've been telling you that Tesla

is going to do that since 2020 nothing

has changed FSD and Optimus on their own

on their own are bigger than whatever

Tesla is worth today and you're

literally right now getting them for

free because you're literally paying

just for the auto business with some

implied increases in sales nothing too

dramatic you have to understand that

$700 billion of market cap which sounds

a lot is nothing once FSD and Optimus

becomes mainstream FSD is going to be

quasi monopolistic licensing deal to the

entire Auto industry which Tesla is

going to collect for with literally 80%

margin and Optimus is going to change

the game just like AI did if not bigger

now look how did I know this how do I

know this what makes me eligible to even

say these things look in the beginning

of 2023 I started making videos about

companies which I thought would do great

in the next two years and over the

course of 2023 I've covered nine stocks

I said hey these nice stocks are going

to be great plus I've also talked a lot

about investing in the S&P 500 so we can

include that as well now let's talk

about these nine stocks I've said Hey

Google Tesla paler crowd strike Bungie

Sofi anet smci Nvidia and obviously the

S&P 500 would be a great investment in

2023 now we are right now 18 months

remove from the beginning of 2023 and

right now these stocks on average are up

116% and they include names like smci

that exploded out of the statosphere

crowd strike AET paler and even Tesla

did quite nice now in the meantime the

index gave you 44% which isn't bad but

that's more than double than the index

so how do I know these things am I a

genius do I have a crystal bow am I this

great investor no it's not about being

the world's best investor it's not about

being the world's best Trader it's not

about having a crystal ball or gut

feeling it's about following a very

simple system now look this system right

here on the page I'm going to tell you

right now it's free look I look at eight

elements with a company and if I find

those eight elements attractive I invest

number one does the company have increas

increasing revenues check the box on

Tesla check the box on paler do they

have increasing cash check the box on

paler and Tesla my two favorite

companies do we have a Founder CEO now

that's debatable in the case of Tesla

although the Court ruled Elan should be

labeled as a Founder but I'm going to

let it go I would say that Elan is quasi

founder at least and obviously Alex Garb

is paler do we have recurring Revenue

with the case of paler with AIP and

Foundry definitely with the case of

Tesla FSD is going to be one of the

biggest if not the biggest recurring

Revenue models in the Auto industry do

we have pricing power but paler

definitely the top 20 clients are paying

$50 million per year each with Tesla

they're able to sell a vehicle with a

premium I'm not familiar with any other

company in the Auto industry that sells

value that doesn't sell price there's

very little things in the world that are

being sold that are based on value Apple

does it with the iPhone for sure in the

case of Tesla the idea is that to push a

car at these prices that competes with

much cheaper models especially now from

China That's pricing Power number six is

total Jal Market Tam do we have a

massive Market the case of paler the

entire AI industry is definitely massive

in the case of Tesla we have engineering

we have software we have robotics we

have energy and obviously the Auto

industry and software there's such

massive Ts for both these companies do

we have client sickness in the case of

paler the net dollar retention is above

110% in the case of Tesla I don't know

of any single person who drove with

Tesla and then switch back to Ford it

doesn't happen once you drive a Tesla

you stay with the Tesla and number eight

is very very important can this company

sell during bad times during times of

Crisis Tesla during the pandemic sold

like hot cakes paler does the same

because of their government business and

because their top tier clients really

are not that sensitive to interest rates

and none of this so with the combination

of these eight factors that's why 40% of

my portfolio is in paler and 20% is in

Tesla quite simple and obviously there's

nothing that's preventing you from using

these principles yourself it's

absolutely free I just give it away use

it every single day now if you actually

want to learn a little bit more about

this and go a little bit deeper and get

better at this I invite you to check out

our Academy

patreon.com Nash we have a whole Academy

dedicated to making people better

long-term investors if that's something

you potentially are interested in check

it out for 30 days money back guarantee

to anybody who's not fully satisfied for

whatever reason and of course you also

are welcome to join our community which

is 100% free to join discord.gg Nash

join up we just crossed 12,000 members

it's a really great Community to talk

about stocks Tesla paler and stock as

well and if you want to get better at

analyzing stocks check out stock MVP

stock mvp.com it's a software I created

for Reta investors to kind of give them

a Bloomberg terminal experience without

all the costs associated it's basically

20 bucks per month and you get to run

your DCF models look at what what

analysts are saying about a company look

at what insiders are buying and selling

run your own modeling understand the

financials basically in every man tool

to analyze every stock in the market

check it out tell me what you think in

the comments below if you hate it if you

love it I'm open to all opinions thank

you so much I'll see you in the next

video