Exits: Multinationals Make Rationale Decisions; More Policies Needed To Attract Investment- Chioke
Summary
TLDRThe business discussion on Horizon News focuses on the 'great miscalculation' of multinationals exiting African markets, particularly Nigeria, due to economic challenges. Despite exits in sectors like FMCG and manufacturing, new capital flows into fintech, renewable energy, health, and education are observed. Dr. EK Chok of Afra Invest Limited discusses the impact of macroeconomic factors, exchange rates, and leadership quality on investment decisions. He emphasizes the need for political leadership to stabilize the economy and pay a living wage to Nigerians, suggesting this as the key policy catalyst for economic growth.
Takeaways
- 🌐 Multinational companies are exiting African markets like Nigeria due to macroeconomic challenges, not inherent issues with Africa itself.
- 📉 Exchange rate fluctuations have significantly impacted multinationals' operations in Nigeria, with the rate moving from 170 to 360 between 2014 and 2018.
- 🏭 Sectors like FMCG and manufacturing have seen exits, with companies like Nestle and Unilea PLC shutting down operations in Africa.
- 💡 Despite exits, new capital inflows are occurring in emerging sectors such as fintech, renewable energy, health, and education.
- 📊 Nigeria has experienced a decline in FDI, dropping from $4.7 billion in 2014 to $2 billion in 2023, compared to other African countries that have grown.
- 💰 The disparity between the official and parallel market exchange rates has created disincentives for multinationals to stay in Nigeria.
- 🛑 Economic arbitrage and mismanagement by the Central Bank have been cited as reasons for the trend of multinationals leaving Nigeria.
- 📈 The Nigerian equities market has seen an increase in foreign participation, driven by high-interest-rate policies and strong earnings in the banking and industrial sectors.
- 🏢 The banking sector's recapitalization is aimed at stabilizing the economy and supporting customers, with the need for an estimated 4 trillion naira in capital.
- 🔑 Leadership quality and discipline are critical in attracting and retaining multinational investments in African countries.
- 🗓️ For Nigeria to achieve economic growth, political leadership needs to demonstrate restraint and discipline, focusing on the social contract with citizens.
Q & A
What did AOS Jar mean by 'the great miscalculation' regarding multinationals in Africa?
-AOS Jar referred to the optimism of multinationals entering the African market and their subsequent exits, indicating that they miscalculated the difficulties of doing business in Africa due to the stage of the continent's development.
What were some of the recent exits of multinationals from African markets mentioned in the script?
-Recent exits include Nestlé shutting down its chocolate milk production facility in South Africa, Unilever pulling out of home care and skin cleansing product manufacturing in Nigeria, and pharmaceutical giant GSK outsourcing distribution in Kenya.
Despite the exits, which emerging sectors in Africa are attracting new capital inflows?
-Emerging sectors attracting new capital inflows include fintech, renewable energy, health, and education.
What macroeconomic challenges did Nigeria face that contributed to the exits of multinationals?
-Nigeria faced multiple challenges, including two recessions in the last decade, significant currency depreciation, and the spread between official and parallel market exchange rates, which created economic disincentives for multinationals.
How did exchange rate fluctuations impact multinational operations in Nigeria?
-Exchange rate fluctuations significantly affected multinationals by creating challenges in repatriating profits and reducing the purchasing power of Nigerian consumers, making it difficult for companies to operate profitably.
What role did political leadership play in the economic challenges faced by Nigeria, according to Dr. Chok?
-Dr. Chok highlighted that Nigeria's leadership has not done enough to create an attractive environment for multinationals and emphasized the need for stable political leadership to maintain consistent policies that encourage foreign investment.
How did the performance of the Nigerian equities market fare this year, and what were the main drivers?
-The Nigerian equities market performed well this year, driven by strong earnings momentum from sectors like banking and industrial, as well as international investor participation in the high-interest rate environment.
What impact did banking sector recapitalization have on Nigeria's economy?
-Banking sector recapitalization aimed to stabilize the economy by providing banks with the capacity to support their customers and absorb potential losses, thus fostering economic growth and stability.
What were some potential policy catalysts for improving Nigeria's economic outlook in the second half of the year?
-Potential policy catalysts include new listings in the equities market, capital raising by banks, and improved political leadership to address the social contract and ensure living wages for citizens.
What is the significance of the consumer purchasing power in Nigeria's economic environment?
-Consumer purchasing power is crucial as it directly impacts the profitability of multinational companies operating in Nigeria. The significant decline in minimum wage value over the years has compressed purchasing power, making it challenging for companies to sell their products profitably.
Outlines
🌐 Multinationals' Exit from African Markets
The script discusses the 'great miscalculation' of multinationals who entered and are now exiting the African market, particularly Nigeria. It highlights the challenges of doing business in Africa due to its stage of development rather than inherent issues. Examples of companies like Nestle and Unilea PLC exiting sectors like FMCG and manufacturing are given. However, the narrative also points out new capital inflows into emerging sectors like fintech, renewable energy, health, and education. The conversation with Dr. EK Chok, MD of Afra Invest Limited, delves into the macroeconomic challenges Nigeria has faced, such as recessions and exchange rate fluctuations, which have impacted multinationals' operations and profitability.
📉 Economic Factors Influencing Multinationals' Decisions
This paragraph explores the reasons behind multinationals' decisions to exit certain African markets, focusing on Nigeria. It emphasizes the impact of exchange rates on consumer purchasing power and multinationals' ability to repatriate profits. The discussion also touches on global portfolio rationalization and the role of homegrown factors in multinationals' strategies. Dr. Chok provides insights into Nigeria's economic environment, comparing it with other African countries that have managed to attract and retain foreign investment more effectively, pointing out the need for a more attractive investment climate and stable political leadership.
💼 Capital Flows and Investment Opportunities in Africa
The script examines the types of investments flowing into Africa, such as FDI and portfolio flows, and their impact on the continent's economies. It discusses the selective investment approach of multinationals, choosing countries with stable political environments and attractive policies. The conversation highlights the importance of leadership quality in African businesses and the need for international investors to consider this factor. The paragraph also addresses the potential of African markets, with examples of companies like EXO Mobile choosing to invest in Angola instead of Nigeria due to policy and regulatory environments.
📈 Performance of Nigerian Equities and Market Drivers
This section of the script focuses on the performance of the Nigerian equities market, discussing the factors that have driven its growth, such as policies from the Central Bank that have attracted international investors. It mentions the high interest rate environment and strong earnings momentum from various sectors, including banking and industrials. The script also covers the impact of capital raising by banks and the potential for new listings to further boost the market. The discussion includes the effects of banking sector recapitalization on economic stability and the importance of political leadership in fostering an environment conducive to investment and growth.
🏦 Banking Sector Recapitalization and Economic Outlook
The final paragraph delves into the implications of banking sector recapitalization for Nigeria's economy, discussing the rationale behind the increase in capital requirements for banks and the potential benefits for macroeconomic stability. It also addresses the challenges faced by the economy, such as inflation and exchange rate fluctuations. Dr. Chok suggests that the most significant policy catalyst for Nigeria's economic improvement is strong and disciplined political leadership that can address social inequalities and create a more conducive environment for investment and growth. The conversation concludes with a reflection on the importance of leadership in driving the Nigerian economy forward.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡African Market
💡Multinationals
💡Divestments
💡Economic Arbitrage
💡Exchange Rate
💡FDI (Foreign Direct Investment)
💡Portfolio Rationalization
💡Fintech
💡Equities Market
💡Banking Sector Recapitalization
💡Policy Catalyst
Highlights
Economist AOS, jar discusses the 'great miscalculation' of multinationals entering and exiting the African market.
Multinationals face challenges not due to Africa's inherent issues but because of its developmental stage.
There has been a wave of exits and divestments in sectors like FMCG and manufacturing in Nigeria and across Africa.
Nestle SA closed its chocolate milk production facility in South Africa due to falling demand in 2023.
Unilea PLC ceased manufacturing home care and skin cleansing products in Nigeria to maintain profitability.
GSK outsourced product distribution in Kenya to independent companies.
New capital inflows are seen in emerging sectors like fintech, renewable energy, health, and education.
Dr. EK Chok discusses the investment environment in Nigeria and the impact of macroeconomic challenges on multinational exits.
Nigeria experienced two recessions in the last decade, affecting the business environment for multinationals.
The significant exchange rate fluctuations have posed challenges for multinational profitability in Nigeria.
Dr. Chok highlights the importance of economic arbitrage and its mismanagement by the central bank.
The exit of companies like Diageo and Microsoft from Nigeria reflects broader economic trends.
The Toam Group's acquisition of Diageo illustrates the potential for local companies to fill market gaps left by multinationals.
Dr. Chok emphasizes the role of individual leadership quality in the success of businesses in Africa.
Nigeria's foreign direct investment (FDI) flows have significantly decreased compared to other African countries.
The banking sector's recapitalization is crucial for economic stability and supporting customers in Nigeria.
Portfolio flows and capital inflows into the Nigerian equities market have been influenced by central bank policies.
Dr. Chok predicts potential growth in the Nigerian capital market driven by new listings and capital raising.
The potential for Nigeria's economy to reach a $1 trillion GDP is discussed, highlighting the role of homegrown businesses.
Dr. Chok identifies political leadership as the most significant policy catalyst for Nigeria's economic improvement.
Transcripts
welcome back you're watching business
week on Horizon news well one Economist
calls it the great miscalculation AOS
jar senior fellow research fellow at the
Clayton Institute at Harvard was
referring to the optimism of
multinationals who had entered the
African market and were now exiting he
later goes on to argue that doing
business in Africa is hard not because
there's something particularly wrong
with Africa but simply because of the
stage of Africa's development we have
had a wave of exits and divestments from
sectors like fmcg and Manufacturing in
Nigeria and across Africa Nestle saay in
South Africa in August last year shut
down its production facility for
chocolate milk in that country citing
falling demand in 2023 un Lea PLC pulled
the plug on the manufacturing of Home
Care and skin cleansing products in
Nigeria to sustain profitability while
farmer giants like GSK have outsourced
distribution of their products to
companies independent companies in Kenya
but we we also seen New Capital inflows
into emerging sectors like fintech and
renewable energy Health as well as
education are we reading too much into
these recent exits aren't infrastructure
policy or regulatory challenges common
across many economies of the world don't
these exits provide ample opportunities
for local companies to gain market share
in key sectors well to help me answer
some of these questions and much more on
Nigeria's investment environment is Dr
EK chok MD of Afra invest limited who
also recently became the chairman of the
enugu State security trust fund good
morning Dr CH great to have you on
business week for the first time good
morning pleasure to be here yes indeed
of course a much talked about story has
been the exit of multinationals yes is
there a trend with this exits that you
can point to well the trend typically
happens when you have a m macroeconomic
uh sort of Challenge and you've see for
example in Nigeria in the last um say 10
years we've experienced two recessions
the first was in 2016 and then we went
through that and came up in 2020 with
the covid recession um so around 2016
when we had a recession you can see the
variables moved quite a lot so something
like growth we were at about 6.55% GDP
growth that went down to 1.9% but what
was more important was exchange rate
went from about 170 at the official
Market to 360 wow by 20 from 2014 to 360
by 2018 so that again created a
challenge for multinationals and that's
why you saw for example the initial size
of uh unil downsizing GSK um we then had
obviously companies like um even HSBC
leaving Nigeria U uh UBS shutting down
their rep offices so that gives you a
signal of what what can happen move
further up to 2020 era uh with covid we
saw again contraction at that time
Nigeria went into negative growth rate
exchange dat now was around 360 official
but you also notice that there they have
began to creep a spread between the
official market and the par market and
we had something like 440 at the parel
market now by time you now coming to
2023 that in January 2023 we were still
sort of around uh 360 while the par
Market was now 740 the Gap had widen
so in addition to sort of that mro that
uh change in the variables the
macroeconomic parameters something I
call economic Arbitrage which the
central bank did not manage well at the
time also created a problem which is
what has created the recent Trend you
see Jia Foods has exited um Microsoft
has shut down um even back in 2017 it
salad left Nigeria so those kind of
variables can often create um the
capacity to wipe out the entire Equity
capital of a company that has operated
in Nigeria for years you know more
recently you seen diio has just exited
and sold to toam group yeah and and you
know that's an interesting example
because you have diio that exited but it
sold to another foreign investor right
so the to group is interesting because
actually a Nigerian company originally
but they've been here for a very long
time and uh haresh who was the group
managing director hares haresh aswani
has doggedly managed Nigeria and grown
his Enterprise from Nigeria locally to
the point where he now is based in
Singapore but it's someone who has a
familiarity of the Nigerian challenges
and can see that sometimes there are ups
and sometimes there are downs but you
know when you think about the economic
Arbitrage that crept into crept into our
economy between I would say probably
from 2016 until 2023 where there was
this massive spread between official and
a power Market that can
impose very strong disincentives for
multinationals to remain a salite is a
particular one where you had the
official Market at 360 and they needed
to sort of repatriate their their
profits but they couldn't they didn't
have liquidity in that market it was to
go into the parel market and that
created some of the concerns that led to
the company leaving leaving uh Nigeria
and you know one common SC part of
everything you said has been the
exchange rate so we can't you know
overemphasize the role of the exchange
rate but a lot of these multinationals
also have uh businesses and subsidiaries
in other countries so how much would you
attribute it to more Global portfolio
rationalization maybe to Homegrown
factors in their own home economies
versus primarily driven by factors in
Nigeria or the countries they operating
okay I'll answer the Nigerian one the
exchange rate is also a driver of the
consumer capacity to purchase of course
um there's only so much you can do in
fragmenting that product so someone like
Pro gambo you know you cannot fragment
the soap you're selling you know into
small into smaller pieces there's a
there's a limit you get to and then you
realize actually these consumers cannot
afford it anymore I cannot operate
profitably because if you think about
the Nigerian consumer environment that
take to a point in time like uh 2004
just after the banking capitalization of
that time at 188,000 NAA per per month
minimum wage that worked out $138 per
month wow today that's at 30,000 na
minimum wage you're barely at $20 per
month so you can actually see the
complete compression of the purchasing
power of Nigerian consumers relative to
Goods that are made by manufactur uh
multinationals
now then profile the rest of Africa
multinationals make rational decisions a
Nigeria I have to say hasn't done very
well in creating um what I call an
attractive environment to at to bring in
multinationals and keep them and keep
them for a long time if you look at FDI
flows foreign direct investment flows in
2014 Nigeria and Egypt were comparable
Nigeria got $4.7 billion that year Egypt
got $4.8 billion fast forward to
2023 Nigeria has collapsed to $2 billion
of FDI flows Egypt is at $107 billion if
you think about Kenya it was only9
billion in 2014 it's grown to 2 to 2.1
as of last year Morocco was $3.7 billion
in 2014 it's grown to $21 billion so
clearly multinationals when they faced
with these issues of a what I call an
economically hostile environment and
they are seeing other economies where
they can go in and their money holds
value and there's a consumer demand and
they don't have to deal with other
extraordinary factors like you know what
I call State capture particularly the
issue with between the official market
and the power Market there's one single
exchange rate then that enables them or
that encourages them to make that
rational decision very interesting
conversely some of these countries
actually make a deliberate effort to go
and Pitch to multinationals and give
them a basket of incentives to bring
them into their countries I don't think
we've done a credible job sufficiently
in that in that area those are very
interesting comparisons because Egypt
even has its own macroeconomic
challenges but we're still seeing inest
even South Africa has challenges South
Africa is at20 billion of FDI flows last
year yeah that's that's very inter so I
want to ask you because you know at the
top of the show when I was introducing I
referred to this article that had been
done by a chap at Harvard F where he
said the great miscalculation which is
that multi aals and investors had
miscalculated maybe over um were overly
optimistic on the African opportunity
which I don't believe is the case I
think Africa is a ripe ground for
investment but do you think there's an
element of people overstretching
themselves and assuming because they're
big consumer markets that it would be
plain sailing in many of these economies
I think uh there is that element but if
I think about the way at AF investment
we make a decision to partner with a
company it's not really the fundamentals
of the business they're doing that's
important it's not even the fundamentals
of the industry they're in that's
important it actually goes back to the
individuals that are running the company
sure so the character and the discipline
and the track record and I think
sometimes International investors have
not looked too closely at the leadership
quality in some African countries and
some of the economies I referred to
they've had more stable political
leadership environment that has helped
them maintain a consistent policy
environment to grow and sustain and
attract foreign investment in other
areas where Nigeria quote unquote has a
democratic environment but I think that
we have been challenged by leadership
that hasn't done enough of sacrifice in
order to encourage and support Nigeria
to attract the sort of investment
environment it requires yeah so across
Africa of course you've got natural
resources you've got arable land you've
got a low penetration of Technology
you've got um the opportunity to build
infrastructure so there are fundamental
gains for international companies to
come and what they are doing is
selectively selectively choosing the
right countries to be in Absol I
wouldn't say that they've uh missed they
miscalculated what you can see is that
there are in some cases they pull back
and simultaneously they move into
another region Nigeria remember the
recent EXO mobile announcement they
decided that you know what they have not
invested a dime in Nigeria in the last
two decades but they just announced a
$15 billion investment in the angolan
oil and gas industry and that's because
we spent 20 years working on an oil and
gas bill and the last current version is
still not attractive enough and they
decided to move their business elsewhere
yeah very interesting on FDI let's move
to another type of investment so the
capital flows the hot money the
portfolio flows much of which goes into
our fixed income markets government
bills you know bonds as well as equities
let's talk about the performance of the
Nigerian equities markets what's been
the main driver performance on the
equities markets this year um we've seen
that a basket of policies from Central
Bank have also attracted International
investors uh the high interest rate
environment we've noticed for example uh
foreign participation in the Equity
Market has gone from just about 99.1% in
the last quarter of last year to 20%
okay so that's encouraging that's that's
a different narrative because on the FDI
side we're seeing some divers correct
you know so people are then saying okay
well and on the back of that you also
see strong earnings momentum from the
banking sector from industrial sector
from consumer goods albeit some of them
have come from FX revaluation sure like
in the banking sector um dividends have
been good although banks have been
constrained in the dividend side all of
that has driven up the market we've also
seen some announcements of transactions
you know like seat has you know now
announced the conclusion of this exom
mobile asset is acquiring similarly
oando on the aib fields and more
recently uh okan saffron yes uh it's an
entity that belongs to the Saro Africa
yeah that bought into seat which owns
presco and if I think about the
fundamental momentum on those stocks all
of them have gone up about 50% year to
date the market overall is at 33% year
to date um of bit the banking sector is
down 88.1% and the banking sector is
obviously challenged because some people
are taking are thinking H
recapitalization what's the impact the
Dividends are a bit lower this year
because CBN has constrained the banks
from paying dividends out of FX gains
right so and of course these guys need
to shop their capital and they're
thinking of do I need to pay out
everything in terms of dividend so all
together uh we see there's momentum in
the equity Market that's also driven by
the fact that you see um you know some
of the monetary policy parameters are
encouraging money to stay a little bit
longer in Nigeria before exiting yeah
that's very interesting you know earlier
in my show I was talking about the fact
that India had now entered the JP Morgan
uh index okay and Indian government
bonds were were going to uh now be more
attractive for inflows um I mean Nigeria
was removed from the MSC index and I
think if you speak to a lot of foreign
investors that's one of the things they
tell you has not really brought them
back to the volumes we saw in in
previous years so from a attracting
inflows to the market in terms of our
fundamentals looking ahead to the next
half of the year what do you expect
should further Drive investor confidence
in in the capital markets
um you see I mentioned that the banking
sector is down 8% if the banks begin to
recover if we see more momentum for
example in the current capital raising
Fidelity has announced their you know
hybrid of their offer which is um offer
for subscription and and uh rights issue
we expect more Banks to begin to
announce their offers by the second half
of the year um so once that begins to
come up uh dang Dango sugar is a bit
down as well we think that could to move
the market from the 33% threshold to
about
45% now there are also Rumors in the
market that dangote Refinery could be
listed uh such a listing if you think of
a 20 billion investment coming to hit
the market at say valuation of 30
trillion there that would be incredible
that would be incredible that cap is at
about 55 trillion trillion trillion and
there's a aradel as well that could be a
1 trillion Nar addition so potential new
listings can also help the mark Market
you saw for example when trans power
came in earlier in the year that was a
$1.6 trillion addition to the market so
the momentum on new listings the
momentum on Capital raising from the
banks and the correction of some of the
recent undervaluation in some sectors
could leave the market we think our base
case would be around that 45% year end
okay um but our optimistic case if this
new listens come in could be much higher
I mean thinking of some of these big
National Giants you actually also
Regional Giants cuz some of them have a
presence in other African countries the
potential um is huge indeed you know the
government has an ambition of a$1
trillion doll economy I know some people
sort of scowl at that and say how we
will get there but if you look at the
trajectory of many of our companies
homegrown businesses it's not
inconceivable that they could contribute
to Nigeria's GDP in a big way but
there's one policy issue I'd like to
sort of hear from you your thoughts on
how it's like to impact the economy
which is the overall banking sector
recapitalization what what impact do you
think it will have on economic stability
in Nigeria as a whole well economy has
been challenged I've mention some of the
parameters you know if you think about
even inflation it's gone from 24% last
year to 33 34% now the exchange rate has
gone from sort of average of about 4 400
or so last year to now 1,500 luckily now
there's no spread much between the par
market and the official Market but for
the banks remember it was in 2010 that
we created this tiered banking structure
where International banking license you
needed 50 billion nirra to be there
National was 25 billion uh Merchant
banking 15 uh Regional 10 and a
non-interest banking at five now Central
Bank has gone up with policies that say
International banking license you must
have 500 but if you actually look at 50
billion in 2010 in real terms in real
terms adjusted for the dollars to 500
billion now it's only a 30% increase not
a whole lot not a whole lot uh the
change for National license is more
significant is going from 25 to 200
that's about an 80% jump but the others
actually have gone down you know if you
think about 5 billion in dollar terms
but overall the rational for the banking
recapitalization is obviously to help
stabilize you know the economy whole
macroeconomic challenges as the banks
are raising money they're also having
more capacity to be able to support
their customers and be able to operate
at the same level as they used to do
because a bank that had the equivalent
of $300 million of capital in 2010 and
today that has gone down 90% to
something like you know $40 million of
capital definitely needs to come back up
if you want to support the same oil and
gas players that are in the same Market
absolutely whose revenues are in dollars
and whose borrowings are in dollars so
that's important for macroeconomic uh
growth momentum it's also important to
stabilize the banking sector and give
them the buffer to take in any losses
and you know in a difficult
environment uh some companies may have
borrowed and they may not have the
capacity to pay back absolutely so the
banking the industry must have that
buffer to take in some of those losses
and last but not L is the momentum it
gives to the economy because in this
case the amount of capital the industry
will require we've estimated is
something like 4 trillion naira we don't
think all of that is available in
Nigeria so we're likely to see some con
some not just consolidation but some
Capital inflows might come in to support
so that foreign direct investment that
is needed and that also helps to
stabilize the exchange rate stabilize
the Nigerian economy and that's all
positive overall so I have time for one
more question I don't want to put you on
the spot but looking at the we're in
June now July to December if you were to
say that there is a single policy
Catalyst that would ensure that Nigeria
ends the year well from an economic
perspective now it could be a policy
Catalyst that's already in play and we
just need more of it what would it be
where do you think the focus should be H
that's interesting Dam question I know I
think the biggest policy C is actually
at the political arena is not something
from the central bank or the Ministry of
Finance okay okay I think the biggest
policy cut list is the leadership I
think and that's my personal opinion
sure that we have seen a complete
disconnect between the
leadership and the citizens and the
social contract has been severed and you
see all this noise about the Des
spending at the top political ellence
meanwhile at the bottom we're still
discussing whether we should pay a a
living wage so
30,000 30,000 naira per month works out
$20 a month whereas only a few years ago
the minimum wage was equivalent to $138
a month we have to recognize that and
that policy catalist would require some
restraint and discipline from the
political leadership and allow the
savings particularly the hidden hidden
aspect of the budgeting is what they
call overheads there's a whole lot of
numbers that go into that overhead thing
I've looked at it and I don't understand
it but the more you can Pierce through
you find there's enough fluff in there
to pay living wages if you did that then
that will catalyze the discipline of
leadership and the opportunity to pay
lead living wages willly Ginger the
Nigerian economy in the world and I and
I and I think we can take a leap from
Kenya's page because it's a similar
story really well yeah we don't want to
get to that point we don't want to get
to that point but in terms of leadership
listening absolutely to the voices of
the people Dr CH it's been a fantastic
conversation thank you so much for
coming and offering your wealth of
insight and experience my pleasure thank
you thank you well that's all we have
time for business week this week uh I'm
R if you want to continue the
conversation you can find me on X you
have a lovely rest of the weekend and
I'll see you next time
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