2021 Capital Link Maritime Forum - Norway: Norwegian Shipping in a Changing World: Past to Future

Summary

In a panel discussion, industry veterans explore the evolution of Norway's shipping industry. They discuss the past, driven by risk-takers and hard-working individuals, the present, marked by challenges and a potential downward spiral, and the future, where the green shift offers new opportunities. The conversation highlights the importance of passion, access to capital, technology, and the adaptability of the Norwegian maritime cluster to stay competitive.

Takeaways

• 🌐 The panel discussion revolved around the past, present, and future of the Norwegian shipping industry, highlighting the industry's adaptability and innovation throughout different eras.
• 🧗 The Norwegian shipping industry's historical success is attributed to risk-taking, hard-working individuals with a passion for the business and strong commercial instincts.
• 🏛 The industry has evolved from a more buccaneering and personal approach to a more industrial and technology-driven model, reflecting changes in how business is conducted.
• 💼 The shift from traditional shipping to offshore and specialized shipping has been a strategic adaptation to market conditions, leveraging Norway's strengths in engineering and maritime expertise.
• 💼🌐 Access to capital has been a significant factor in the Norwegian shipping industry's growth, with Norwegian banks playing a crucial role in financing and supporting the industry's expansion globally.
• 📉 Despite recent challenges and a perceived downward trend in traditional commodity shipping, there is optimism for the future, especially with the rise of new technologies and the green shift in the industry.
• 🌿 The green shift is seen as a potential catalyst for reinvigorating the Norwegian maritime cluster, with a focus on sustainable and environmentally friendly practices in shipping.
• 🛳 The industry is currently experiencing a period of uncertainty due to the unknowns of future fuel types and emissions regulations, which is affecting new ship orders and technology development.
• 🤝 The panelists emphasized the importance of collaboration, not just within the industry but also with financial investors and clients to navigate the green shift and capitalize on new opportunities.
• 📈 There is a noted increase in profitability across various shipping segments, suggesting a potential upswing in the industry's fortunes, which could attract more investment and talent.
• 🔄 The discussion underscored the cyclical nature of the shipping industry and the need for continuous adaptation to remain competitive, particularly in the face of technological advancements and environmental concerns.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the roundtable discussion in the script?

The main topic of the roundtable discussion is the past, present, and future of the shipping industry, with a focus on the changing world and the impact of the green shift on the industry.

What factors contributed to Norway's past dominance in the shipping industry?

Factors contributing to Norway's past dominance in the shipping industry include a long coastline, rough conditions, risk-taking and hard-working people, and a tradition of seafaring dating back to the Viking era.

How does Peter characterize the Norwegian risk-takers he has worked with in the shipping industry?

Peter characterizes the Norwegian risk-takers as having a lot of passion for the business, good commercial instincts, and different strategies that have led to significant success and wealth accumulation over time.

What has traditionally been the lifestyle of those involved in the shipping industry according to the script?

Traditionally, the lifestyle of those involved in the shipping industry was very much a 24/7 business, often involving deals made in bars and restaurants, and requiring a deep understanding and immersion in the industry.

What role has access to capital played in the success of the Norwegian shipping industry?

Access to capital has played a significant role in the success of the Norwegian shipping industry, with Norwegian banks and capital markets holding a strong position on a global scale and providing essential financial support to the industry.

How has the Norwegian shipping industry adapted to changes in the banking and financing landscape over the years?

The Norwegian shipping industry has adapted by becoming more financially sophisticated, diversifying funding sources beyond banks to include bond markets, equity markets, and private lending, thus reducing financial risk.

What is the significance of the 'green shift' in the context of the shipping industry's future?

The 'green shift' signifies a major transition towards more sustainable and environmentally friendly practices in the shipping industry, which is expected to create new opportunities and challenges, and potentially reinvigorate the industry.

What impact has the green shift had on the current sentiment in the shipping industry?

The green shift has led to increased positivity and interest in the shipping industry, with a focus on new technologies and opportunities, as well as a potential for a more profitable and sustainable future.

How does the script suggest that the Norwegian maritime cluster can leverage the green shift?

The script suggests that the Norwegian maritime cluster, with its strong technological and industrial shipping background, is well-positioned to take advantage of the green shift by developing and adopting new environmentally friendly technologies and practices.

What challenges does the uncertainty surrounding future fuel types pose for the shipping industry?

The uncertainty surrounding future fuel types has led to hesitancy in ordering new ships and has created a need for the industry to adapt quickly to new regulations and technologies, potentially impacting the entire industry from 2023 onwards.

How might the green shift influence the role of ship brokers in the industry?

The green shift may require ship brokers to be at the forefront of new technological developments, working closely with clients and financial investors to navigate the changes and opportunities presented by environmentally friendly shipping practices.

Outlines

00:00

🚢 Opening Remarks and Introduction to Norwegian Shipping Industry Veterans

The session begins with Nicolas Bourneus of Capitalink welcoming participants to a roundtable discussion featuring industry veterans with extensive experience in the shipping industry. The panelists, including Kristen, Harold Hermann, and Peter, are recognized for their deep knowledge of the business, both in Norway and globally. The moderator, Harold, takes over to start the discussion on the history, current state, and future of non-relationshiping in a changing world, with a focus on the Norwegian shipping industry's past success factors, such as risk-taking and hard work.

05:01

🌐 The International Appeal of Norwegian Shipping and Its Historical Context

The panel delves into the historical factors that contributed to Norway's dominance in the shipping industry, highlighting the country's long coastline and the seafaring spirit of its people since the Viking era. The discussion emphasizes the international nature of shipping as a draw for Norwegians, offering opportunities to engage with diverse cultures and conduct business globally. Herman reflects on the appeal of the industry, which stood out as international and adventurous compared to the more domestic and introverted Norwegian economy before the oil boom in the 1960s.

10:01

💼 Capital Access as a Cornerstone of Norwegian Shipping Success

Christine discusses the role of capital in the success of the Norwegian shipping industry, explaining how Norwegian banks and capital markets have played a significant role on a global scale. She recounts the shift in the 1980s when international banks became less supportive of ship owners, leading to a stronger collaboration with Norwegian banks. The banks saw shipping as an interesting and sophisticated business, which led to the development of financial products tailored to the industry's needs, thus strengthening the financial cluster in Norway.

15:04

🔬 The Maritime Cluster and Attraction of Talent in Norway's Shipping Industry

The conversation turns to the maritime cluster in Norway and the attraction of skilled professionals to the industry. Peter shares his perspective on the ups and downs of recruiting talented individuals, noting that shipping was once the premier industry for ambitious professionals in Norway. The transition from shipping to offshore industries is highlighted as a unique movement that capitalized on the profits made during the shipping boom, attracting highly educated individuals to the maritime sector.

20:04

📉 Reflections on the Current State of Norwegian Shipping and Its Challenges

The discussion addresses the present state of Norwegian shipping, with the panel expressing concerns about a perceived downward trend in recent years. Factors such as banks scaling down their shipping portfolios and a shift in focus to other industries are considered. Christine counters with the view that the maritime sector has broadened its base, becoming more financially sophisticated and capable of adapting to new opportunities, such as the green shift in energy.

25:06

🛳️ The Future of Shipping: Commodity Cycles and the Green Shift

The panelists consider the potential for a resurgence in commodity shipping and the impact of the green shift on the industry. There is optimism about the possibility of a commodity supercycle and the role of technology in driving change. Peter suggests that Norway's strength may lie in specialized and technologically intensive sectors rather than traditional commodity shipping. The conversation also touches on the importance of access to capital and the potential for a stronger position in the future.

30:08

💹 Financing the Green Shift in Shipping and Its Implications

Christine and the panelists explore the financing challenges and opportunities presented by the green shift in shipping. They acknowledge the difficulty of financing early-phase green technologies but express confidence in the adaptability of the Norwegian industry. The discussion highlights the importance of cash flow and the potential for equity-based or direct lending as alternative financing methods, with an emphasis on the role of capital in driving industry sentiment.

35:10

🌿 Embracing the Green Shift as a Catalyst for Norway's Maritime Industry

In the final segment, the panelists agree that the green shift could reinvigorate Norway's maritime cluster, with a focus on innovation and adaptation to new technologies. The conversation points to the potential for Norway to take a leading role in the green shift, with initiatives in short sea shipping and ferry businesses. The panelists also discuss the broader implications of the green shift for commodity shipping, including the development of new engine technologies and the impact of carbon regulations on the industry.

🔚 Concluding Thoughts on the Future of Norwegian Shipping

The session concludes with a summary of the key points discussed, including the historical success factors of the Norwegian shipping industry, the challenges faced in recent years, and the opportunities presented by the green shift. The panelists express optimism for the future, noting the industry's resilience and adaptability. The conversation ends on a positive note, with the anticipation of a renewed period of growth and innovation for Norwegian shipping.

Keywords

💡Shipping

Shipping is the core theme of the video, referring to the transportation of goods and materials by sea. It is a fundamental part of global trade and is central to the economy and history of Norway. The script discusses the evolution of the shipping industry, its challenges, and its future, particularly in the context of Norway's maritime heritage and expertise.

💡Risk Takers

The term 'risk takers' is used to describe the entrepreneurial spirit and boldness of individuals in the Norwegian shipping industry. These are people who have been willing to take on significant financial and operational risks to achieve success. The script highlights this trait as a key factor in the past glory days of Norwegian shipping, with examples of individuals like Mr. Frederickson and the Offer family.

💡Commodity Shipping

Commodity shipping involves the transportation of raw materials and bulk goods, such as oil, coal, and grain. The script suggests that this segment of the shipping industry has faced challenges in recent years, with Norwegians potentially moving away from it. However, the green shift and technological advancements may offer new opportunities.

💡Maritime Cluster

A maritime cluster refers to a concentration of businesses and organizations within the maritime industry, often working collaboratively to innovate and support each other. The script mentions Norway's maritime cluster as a significant factor in the country's historical success in shipping and its potential for future growth, especially in specialized and green technologies.

💡Capital

Capital, in the context of the video, refers to the financial resources available for investment in the shipping industry. Norway has been noted for its strong position in providing capital to the shipping industry, which has been a key to its success. The script discusses how access to capital has evolved, with a shift from traditional banking to a broader financial ecosystem.

💡Green Shift

The green shift represents the transition towards more environmentally friendly and sustainable practices in the shipping industry. The script identifies this as a significant opportunity for Norway, with the potential to revitalize the maritime sector through innovation in areas like offshore wind, carbon capture, and alternative fuels.

💡Technology

Technology is highlighted in the script as a key driver for the future of the shipping industry, particularly in the context of the green shift. It refers to the development and application of new technologies to improve efficiency, reduce emissions, and create competitive advantages. Examples include the exploration of dual-fuel ships and the use of methanol and ammonia as alternative fuels.

💡Offshore

Offshore refers to activities conducted outside a ship's port, often related to oil and gas exploration and production. The script discusses the transition of some Norwegians from shipping to offshore industries, leveraging their maritime expertise. The offshore sector is also undergoing changes due to the green shift, with a focus on renewable energy like offshore wind.

💡Banking and Financing

Banking and financing are discussed in relation to their role in supporting the shipping industry. The script notes the reduction in bank lending but also the emergence of a more diversified financial landscape, including bond markets, equity markets, and private lending. This diversification is seen as a positive development, reducing financial risk and supporting the industry's evolution.

💡Regulation

Regulation refers to the rules and policies set by governing bodies that impact the shipping industry, such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The script touches on the uncertainty and potential impacts of new regulations related to carbon emissions and discusses how these regulations may drive technological innovation and industry transformation.

💡Sustainability

Sustainability in the script is closely tied to the green shift and refers to the industry's efforts to operate in a way that minimizes environmental impact and supports long-term viability. The discussion includes the potential for Norway to lead in sustainable shipping practices, leveraging its technological and maritime expertise.

Highlights

Introduction of industry veterans in a roundtable discussion on the past, present, and future of shipping.

Norwegians' historical dominance in shipping attributed to risk-taking and hard-working individuals.

Personalities in the shipping industry characterized by passion and commercial instincts.

Different strategies like discipline and cost consciousness versus high-risk taking can both lead to success.

The evolution of the shipping industry from a 24/7 lifestyle to a more industrial approach.

Norwegian attraction to shipping due to its international nature and respect abroad.

Access to capital as a key factor in the success of the Norwegian shipping industry.

Banks' involvement in shipping as a driver for product development and sophistication.

The maritime cluster in Norway as an ecosystem for innovation and support in the industry.

Challenges in recruiting talented individuals into shipping amid competition from other industries.

The perception of a downward spiral in Norwegian shipping in recent years.

The financial cluster in Norway becoming more diversified and sophisticated.

The potential for a commodity super cycle and its impact on shipping.

Specialized shipping and technology as areas of strength and future opportunities for Norway.

The green shift as a catalyst for change and opportunity in the maritime industry.

Norway's position in the green shift and its potential to lead in new maritime technologies.

The importance of adapting to new engine technologies and environmental regulations in shipping.

The conclusion that the green shift could re-energize the Norwegian maritime cluster.

Transcripts

nicolas bourneus of capitalink

i would like to welcome you uh to

the current session we have had a very

interesting and very busy and fruitful

day-to-day with lots of very interesting

discussions but this one i think is

particularly

uh different and interesting we have the

great

pleasure to have with us

for people who are literally industry

veterans in terms of experience

and uh insight so i'm delighted that

they have joined us

on this panel to have a roundtable

discussion about

the past the present and the future uh

all of them have had a very long

distinguished and successful career in

shipping

and they know this business inside out

so

not only the norwegian side but also the

global side so

i would like to welcome kristen

uh harold hermann and peter and

without any more delay i will turn it

over to harold to

moderate the panel and again thank you

very very much

thank you very much for that

introduction nikolas so

let me see her i will try to share the

screen

can you see my presentation now uh

oh there i guess it is

you can see it guys christine yes very

good

okay so let's uh let's get going uh

so the topic of today is no

relationshiping in a changing world

past present and future so with uh

what nikolas referred to as industry

veterans

uh on the panel let's start with the

past

so with a long coastline and rough

conditions

norway has been a dominant force in

shipping

since the vikings were running the show

we have tried to identify some of the

factors that are contributed

to norwegians past glory days

in shipping and i think

the first factors is like risk takers

hard-working people it start it starts

with the people

uh we had some real risk takers and

adventurers

that were playing hard in the global

market

and peter you have been involved in

shipping

in the global and norwegian market for

decades

almost since the viking age i guess you

have worked with a lot of these

norwegian risk takers over the years so

how will you characterize these people

you have worked with

what has been like their factors for

success

um their drive peter

no i i think that um obviously

it boils down to a lot of passion for

the business

and and i think historically good

commercial instincts

and i worked together with mr

frederickson for many years

and i also worked with the offer family

for many years

and both these families are very

passionate about shipping

but what i found interesting was that

the offer family was very disciplined

cost conscious both low uh

paid down their debt and made sort of a

consistent 20

return you know since the early 70s

uh with relatively low debt whereas

frederickson he took high risk

he was in financial distress a couple of

times

uh didn't fix his ships very often spot

restriction rings challenges but

you know he was also very successful so

i found it very interesting that you

could have

some very very different strategies

leading to double digits

in billions of dollars in net worth you

know after

30 40 years of hard work

oh that's that's good then what you're

saying hard work

is and you're saying that shipping is a

passion

uh so so so i guess you really have to

live and read shipping in order to be

successful or is that obviously it

i think so and i think it's very much uh

at least traditionally when you go back

to the 70s and the 80s

it was very much a 24 7 business

it was very much a lifestyle i think you

had very colorful

characters um i think more transactions

were done in bars and restaurants than

today

now we are on teams and it's a much more

sort of

industrial approach to shipping

and and the financing and and so forth

so

it was much more of a buccaneering uh

period but

even if you had these more flamboyant

characters

it didn't mean that they were not

serious about their business or that

they weren't you know really intelligent

um

and and uh tough in negotiations

um so and i think you find a lot of that

today as well so i think the style has

changed

but i think the engine driving uh

the profitability and the need for the

people who achieve success

is still very much the same so um

the form might be different but the

content is

is quite similar well that's a good

that's a good point uh herman

why do you think all these norwegians

got attracted into shipping

in the first place was it the war

stories

and what peter here is talking about uh

signing deals

in bars and restaurants all the

traveling lunches

and parties that attracted or what

attracted you

and what do you think have been like the

attraction what has brought all these

people

into shipping over the years and

norwegians in particular

wrong with long lunches cyril

but i think we in a way we have to

take a step back we have to remember

where norway was coming from

before the oil really hit us in the 60s

i think apart from shipping

it was it has been a fairly domestic

and introvert economy while

shipping had this certain flavor

being truly international

and you could do business with other

cultures

traveling abroad and on top of that i

think

norway was well respected i mean if you

were in shipping

you had kind of a some respect abroad

if you were norwegian um

i i remember when i was in my early

career i was working for

in the toolbar club in this group and

the later lock loudness he said that you

know

birds while flying out

they will come home with food in the to

the nest

and it was kind of we traveled a lot all

over the places to

countries i hardly heard about before i

started in shipping

to try to dig out business being

creative

and and being in norwegian i think for

when i told that to people friends

working in the

real estate or whatever they were doing

that it was more exotic

uh i would say and so if you were a bit

adventurous

shipping was really it um

why i joined that kind of

my grandfather and my father they

they were in the shoe production beach

business can you imagine

being competitive and i'm just an

illustration on norway

was from this kind of the 50s 60s and

early 70s

and again before the oil in a very

uh labor-intensive industry norway was

extremely competitive

and that was obviously not very

sustainable through the 70s so i had to

kind of dig out new grounds so then i

i felt had i always had this romantic

kind of

perception of shipping and everything

related to

maritime industry so so it was

and when i kind of started in the late

80s i was really hooked

in the story oh that's good that's a

good

good good perspective uh uh thank you

for that

uh further down on the list in terms of

uh success

success factors uh for the norwegian

shipping industry

we have access to capital

we had banks and the capital markets

in norway have had like an extremely

strong position

on a global scale christine

uh you have been heavily involved in

this and

has had a strong position in this market

uh why has norway had such a dominant

position

in providing capital to the shipping

industry

has the business been so profitable for

profitable for the banks or or

what is the reason it wasn't he started

calculating risk but

yes you didn't take risk into the

equation and all this so that's

no no no no no it was just nominal

numbers

that was the fascination you know when

when some of us started

in the 80s um

it was only international banks in

norway it was in many honey

it was hombres citibank german

other germans and and the norwegian ship

owners didn't want to deal with the

small

norwegian banks but then the the in the

late 80s or mid 80s late 80s shipping

market went

south as it does regularly and

international banks didn't really

treat the ship owners that well so i

think they felt

that was not in a way fair and then they

want they saw the need to start

also working with the norwegian bank so

i think that

in combination with norwegian banks

becoming

larger saw this as an interesting

business

and and as herman said shipping was

of the maritime sector that was very

much

shipping at that time was the only

global international

export industry so for for the banks

this was really an interesting um

interesting business

and these were the most sophisticated

clients

of the bank they were those driving the

product development like

i i remember the first time we talked

about the swap on interest

i mean we really had to use a calculator

to understand what that was so

it was a sophisticated part of the

business um

for the banks uh and with that

strong foothold the norwegian ship

owners had it was natural for the

for for the banks to follow them than

out in the world so i think that is

that is where it started and then um

some international bank drove it back a

bit after the downturn and 80s and the

norwegian banks and the scandinavian

banks could

have more of a market to go into in that

same time you had some of them

financial houses coming in like porieto

you had the

single code you had some of these

starting financing

and starting project houses so the chaos

market also started at the same time so

you had

the bonds the case market and the banks

so you started to have more of a

financial cluster in a way in the in the

90s

in norway so that strengthen our

position

and and it was it was a profitable

time uh yes we had moses obviously it's

cyclical

but but you know also the difference

between

norwegian banks scandinavian banks and

international is that

we have long lenses international banks

get either more panic or they want to

get out

faster whilst we have a longer line to

understand that these industries are so

core for

norwegian non-invasion economy so we

also have to think that way

so it's so there are many several many

of these aspects which um

which which come together and

yeah now it's an interesting perspective

what you're saying that uh

in a way the shipping shipping clients

were the most uh

sophisticated clients of the bank so in

a way they were like

maybe instrumental in terms of like

shaping the banks

and and making the banks more

sophisticated also

versus other industries so they were

instrumental in

developing maybe the norwegian corporate

banking industry i don't know

absolutely and i remember many of these

meetings we had with markets

because they basically had norwegian

business or scandinavian business so

suddenly we

we did the finance shuttle transits

being built in china and we had to do

inter-swap so we had to do

forex stops and we had to do export

financing that was completely new

so it was a we were developing the bank

with those those clients i think that

also was

such a fascination for those of us who

started in the industry we were like

thrown into

the big world and learning in in a big

height with high speed oh that's

interesting

and then i can just just add another

aspect there because we you said

profitable yes it was profitable because

we

we we um we calculated differently today

so if you go into the financial crisis

or before the financial crisis and after

that's when the banks got much more

requirements to capital

then we had to add capital to the

creation of the return so risk

rated return came much much bigger to

the table

that's when we started to have challenge

to have a good

return base but we can talk more about

that later but that's really the

changing mood for a lot for the

international

or banking business for um for the

shipping industry

thank you for that sir christine uh

further down on the list on the on the

key factors we have listed technology

leadership

my hypothesis is that shipping and

offshore

was seen as an attractive industry for

smart engineers

we also had this what we call the

maritime cluster in norway

uh big industry a lot of people

uh within everything from like the

broking industry

uh yeah dnd you have insurance

i mean you have a lot of like supporting

businesses to

to to innovate support the maritime

industry in norway

uh peter you have been part

of this cluster with plato and late

exactions

what has been your experience being part

of this through

booming and difficult markets have

people always been like

keen to to to go into shipping and has

been

easy for for for you guys to to recruit

talented people into shipping or has it

been

ups and downs how do you see that

you are you are mute peter

so i think there's been there's

obviously been ups and downs

um if you go back you know to the 60s

ship rocking was really the first

uh industry where you could make money

real money

if you didn't have a family with um

real estate or a factory or a trading

company

and and today was sort of the first

young aspiring professionals

and and i think what happened in norway

was that it evolved

and you had uh obviously a booming

shipping in the late 60s early 70s

and uh norwegian shipping started to

accurate

you know civil engineers lawyers mba

people with business degrees and um

so it became in norway and let's say a

very prestigious

industry to work with and then um

and then you had the transition from

shipping to offshore where people made a

lot of money

in uh in shipping and then the market

crashed and then they

were trying to reinvest their profit

into offshore

and i think that was kind of unique

transition from shipping to offshore

because

in in america it started with onshore

drilling rigs

and they moved offshore in norway it

started kind of with shipping

and then they started with uh offshore

drilling rigs so

i i think it's been it's been an

attractive business to be

in in norway whether you work for a ship

owner or ship broken company because it

was really

the only industry where norway had

industrial credentials

which was truly international where you

got to do a lot of traveling

um and and i think it's sort of a it's a

unique

unique thing in norway uh to a large

extent and um

and again we see also in norway with

with the ship brokers which are

on average highly educated whereas in

the rest of the world

they tend to on average have less less

education so

um i think that has created lots of

poster dynamics in in uh in our industry

well that's good uh let's spend some

time on uh

let me see here if you can slide

uh

there you can see the next slide now yes

uh

so now i spent some time on the past

let's um let's spend some time

on the present and here on the present

we are in a way also

including the past like five years

up until today and my personal feeling

is that shipping in norway the last few

years have been in kind of a downward

spiral

maybe norwegians i prefer they're more

like comfortable life in their cabins

rather than going full steam in the

shipping business

living and breeding shipping 24 7

traveling around the world

uh maybe not been that much of that

lately

some of the banks are scaling down their

shipping business

their books are being reduced even some

banks are like uh

reorganizing and and shipping is like

been put further down

in organizations um um

maybe other industries than shipping

have been like attracted

the smartest engineers uh i'm not going

to shipping

but but but uh i'm offshore but other

industries like the tech industry

uh recently so so i think

personally that we have been like uh a

bit in an awkward spiral

uh uh the last uh five years uh

christine uh what's your comment on this

uh in terms of the financing and banking

market

have they been uh like a bit like

on a negative trend or how do you see it

depending on you see that uh um

i think the uh um

if you just look at the lending book of

the banks yes

that's been reduced but if you look at

how we have built up a financial cluster

in norway and how much stronger

the the other sources of capital has

come to the table

that's that's normal that is in most of

the industry you're not just

depending on the banks you're depending

on whether you use the bond market you

use equity market you use

releases uh you use resources you can

now make private lending so i think

the banks or the the industry has become

more

financially sophisticated and

hopefully they have become less

financial

risky they take commercial and

operational risk

but they can reduce their financial risk

by diversifying their funding sources

and that's what

many of them have done over this year so

i think that's a

that's a good thing for the industry so

i wouldn't say

it's um that has just reduced the

importance of the industry and i i think

i'm a bit disagreeing with you because

i think this if you look at the broader

base just not just the shipping as such

but the maritime sector

and you look at that strong position

this industry has in norway

it's amazing and we will come back to

that for the future but if you see

how you have we have built up the

service sector the

suppliers the broad base and the

technology systems or structure or the

companies in this institution we have in

um

specifically but also other places i

would say

we have we have kept a position but in a

much

broader base which have given us a

foothold to going to succeed in seafood

a lot of people from energy and shipping

have gone in or

engineering and competency has been used

to that industry

and we see it now in the green shift

which we will talk about so

so far i think it's it's a bit more um

wider scope i have somebody stopped it

yeah i i see that maybe my perception is

also a bit like ribbon but

obviously it's been a bit challenging

markets and um

you're talking about the broader

maritime sector and obviously for

offshore peace oil and gas

supply vessels has been uh pretty rough

depicted like that

the last five years so that's maybe also

like flavoring my

perception a bit yeah and you just can

have one comment back to that because

by having this broad base we can more

easily come back when it's

when the times are good again because

it's not just like one

narrow part of the industry we have a

much broader base so yes we have

downturns which are

really heavy but when we when we see the

opportunity coming

we can we have we have the resources

what's your take on this mr bilo uh i

have a lost or more joy in shipping

uh the last years if you like where uh

uh could start all over again and you

were like

finished with your education uh in

2019 when you have got back into

shipping then or

what do you think you know i tend to

when i

i always say that in my next life i'm

going to work in shipping

and uh and i because i always love the

business

but obviously if you look at regular

commodity shipping it's

it's not only oil and gas and supply you

have had rough times we haven't really

made any money for the last

few years in commodity shipping and then

obviously

recruiting hasn't been on top of the

agenda uh

but but as christian says we we have the

platform

and i think

people have to you know it's not only

ship owners who have short memory

uh so so also

so if you look at right now i mean

you're

reading financial times or others

they're all talking about

we are in might might come into a

commodity super cycle

and and we see it in in my

little early in dry broke you see you we

see what is happening right now and

obviously

this can come back but i'm not entirely

sure if norway is

will have a big big platform over

regular commodity shipping but

i think we are our advantage is the

society itself is it's it's

it's fairly it's it's we are good on

technology

we are good on the digital solutions so

i think

uh so so

so things can change fast uh and

as it looks now finally at least uh our

time

has under the call and for the container

business and

and also for the gas business looks like

we might be the combat kids in the

coming years

which could change everything very fast

so i'm i'm i'm kind of positive but i

don't think you will see a lot of

regular commodities ship owners in

norway in the future i think

we will be in in different areas more

so than in commodity shipping yeah you

you were building a commodity shipping

company

but you sold out uh to the us mcgriest

into huh

yeah that was uh not because i mean it's

you know that the norwegians we are

extremely cheap so it's it's a

management in norway it's not very

expensive compared to

many other countries but our challenge

was that our platform was too small

and and and the size matters liquidity

if you are listed company matters a lot

so so uh today looking in

the bright light of hindsight i think

that was a good decision to be part of a

of a biggie platform and and i it's

international business um

and and and we have seen through the

pandemic where if you are sitting here

there and whatev wherever we are

it's it's it it works so it's uh

but access to capital i think will still

be

uh something which

will be an important point for norway

peter you have anything to add to this

uh have you pushed your

kids into shipping or have you advised

them against it or or

any perspectives please

i think you're on mute again peter

no i haven't really given them any

specific guidance um

but for some reason they have chosen not

to enter into shipping

so uh the two oldest are in private

equity and the youngest might go into

investment banking but what i wanted to

add a bit is

with regards to uh the high level of

education among the people in

shipping slash offshore in norway and i

think that's one of the reasons why our

relative strength

through the years have been more in

industrial shipping specialized shipping

lng lpg subsidy

construction um pctc

etc etc and i think the flexibility

of the norwegian model whereby we are

one of the two

places in the world where you can really

raise capital for shipping and offshore

and also for offshore wind and that's

the two places is new york and it's uh

oslo and very often you have years where

more capital is raised for these

industries

in oslo than in new york and i think

you're seeing now

a push um over to

offshore wind and offshore wind

installation vessels and the green

energy

and a lot of capital is invested there

so it's a cluster of industrial shipping

of specialized

offshore and green technology

and the access to capital that we have

which is very very

efficient in norway i mean you can raise

money as you know heidel

very quickly here so i think that's

that the flexibility of the call it's

business model and the resources we have

here

makes us adapt quickly but i agree with

herman that our relative strength in the

past

and going forward is not commodity

shipping

it's the more specialized the technology

intensive

part of the industry that i think we

will be successful in

no that's good um i guess that is taking

us to the

uh final uh uh slider

and that's on the future and the

questionnaire is

will the green shift as we call it bring

our glory back

i mean i believe something really has

changed

just over the last year you see this

tremendous

huge focus on the green shift is now

coming

everyone is eager to like take part

and play an active role you see that in

the shipping industry

every single day at the same time you

see that

suddenly most chicken segments are

actually

making some money even the dry bulk

market tournament

is making decent money for once

so with this green shift creating

opportunities

uh um shipping actually performing

relatively well even share prices

are going up uh i think there is some

new positivism

out in the market and in a way i feel we

are

potentially moving a bit way out of this

negative spiral that we have been

been in for the past three to five years

uh so christine on that note uh

what do you think will banks open their

checkbook

and um be eager to finance new bills now

with some green technology attached to

it or

we see another boom coming

ninety percent pre-delivery financing

not the problem uh no i think uh

i think that's more of a challenge but i

think the whole point now that you see

the strengths of the

the how the norwegian industry takes the

the green takes the wind sector uh i

listened to

another seminar this morning um and

ecuador said that

what two third or three fourth i think

three two third of their suppliers

from wind projects we're now coming from

norway so and if you look at the

cluster pitch for the wind industry in

norway you see i mean

the whole maritime industry is there so

it's

really managed to to raise the bars

quite quickly i think the only the danes

that are ahead of norway when it comes

to

taking the wind sector by by storm

it's all always challenging to do

financing early phase

of new industries because there's a

higher risk

and that's also maybe by this huge

norwegians it's higher risk

it's new technologies early phase uh

small volumes that's always been where

we have

been strong when or developed like like

the chemicals like the lmg

like the crews like all specialists

and shuttle tankers all these specialist

areas we have been early and due to

those platforms we have

so i think financing it you you will

need

more developed market you will need more

of a contract base

um these specialized chips

as we know and the development has

happened so fast

it's more challenging to find us on a

stand-alone basis unless you are

building it all into a company which has

a certain

cash flow so it's it's all about cash

flow so i think

this is more for for either for equity

base

or for direct lending and but you

will find capital it's just that you

have to structure it differently and

then

all all based um bank lending

so i and i think all banks with all

banks also want

to go into the morning to the green so

i'm certain

that capital is coming in it's more a

matter of um

how to structure it in a way that you

you get an acceptable risk

yeah yeah i guess this green shift will

also have implications on the

also on commodities commodity shipping

uh i mean you will see

new engine technology on your dry build

vessels

i mean not a lot has happened there has

been some

development on dry bulk uh

the last uh 25 years but not a lot

uh has it but but will we get like a

a a a a huge step now

in technology and development uh on

vessel technology you believe

indeed i mean well i mean one point is

obviously that

all the the all the uncertainty related

to the fuel

fuel of the future it's refraining

owners from

ordering right now at least in my in my

space because there's a lot of

uncertainty

i mean this is not limited to norway but

i think that what is happening

on the particular on the carbon front

this

will be the biggest shift

we will haven't uh which is not clearly

as i said not limited to norway uh and

and we should know that as a threat but

as an opportunity and the big

serious player should applaud it uh

what is happening because uh uh

you will have massive changes and then

coming back to norway there are a lot of

things happening here

more on the short sea and in the ferry

business

and again i think we are in a position

to to use

our technological know how to develop

things whether it's

battery ammonia

hydrogen so there are a lot of things

happening uh

but a lot of uncertainty right now but

there are

meetings upcoming meetings in imo

it'd be very very very interesting on

particularly these carbon

indexes carbon tax what are we exposed

to

we don't really know at the moment but

at the end of the day i think it could

be the cargo owners who will be

setting the agenda not necessarily uh

imo i think both the eu you have a new

administration in us

there are so many things happening at

the same time we have

targets to meet which for 2 20 30

20 50 then hopefully i will be retired

by then but

in 2030 i mean things are happening so

fast and

and new rules we have to lead up to and

will have an

impact on the entire industry already

from 2023

and there have meetings uh

intercessionary meetings in imo

as we speak and the very heated

discussions on

on where we are going and and and i i i

think you know

in a way i'm all could be in in the back

seat because you have

politicians out there who are much more

higher ambitions and so this is going to

be

the the biggest kind of revolution and

then hopefully and i i believe so given

uh

the way we are uh put together in order

i think we could be on the forefront

on that as well and there are a lot of

things interesting initiatives happening

right now

yeah uh and as you said yes it's

shorter but i think to be honest i think

the the capital

in all the broad sense really have a

driving

uh also the sentiment for the for the

industry not just the banks it's it's

also the

all the investors and the private equity

they they have a

much higher profile and stand on the

issue which

is also pushing the industry faster

than we thought would happen yeah

and i guess the whole maritime cluster

in norway

are like i guess we'll see this green

shift

as us as a new opportunity and are

fighting for business

i guess peter if you're a good broker

today you are running around with new

concepts um

um technology trying to get close to the

people developing that technology and

trying to convince

some ship owners to to order a few new

bills here and there i guess the whole

broking industry

will spend a lot of time uh uh to to be

on top

of what's happening here with all the

techno

new technology and opportunities in the

green shift how do you see that peter

i i agree with you completely um and and

i can just you know speak for ourselves

that we've been

in a position to uh ordering

you know a lot of uh for instance dual

lng

chips dual fuel chips uh

for key clients and a close cooperation

with dnv uh looking at the various

alternatives with methanol and ammonia

and so forth um so so i think that

if you're going to be a cutting edge

broker today

you really need to be in the forefront

of

call it the carbon capture the green

shift and be able to speak

intelligently both with your clients and

with the

financial investors on on this subject

and i think also like herman was

alluding to that this is obviously

a factor that has decreased the new

building orders

except for in container so it has given

us a better supply picture so but

it's it's a very very interesting time

and there is lots of opportunities for

sure

well that's good uh i'll see we are

running out of time here i guess we

could have

continued this uh discussion uh uh

for another another hour too uh so i

think

just to sum up uh

i guess our conclusion is that we

believe there are some good years ahead

for shipping in norway and that this

green shift

is really an important factor uh uh

to like re-energize the norwegian

maritime cluster hopefully

we will see norway even getting stronger

um building a stronger position than

they have today

obviously it helps that uh chip owners

are making money today banks see that

their credits

looks pretty good and even the equity

investors

are getting a dividend here and there so

so so

it all looks better and uh the good

thing in shipping most people have a

very short memory so i guess

the only way is straight up from here

let me conclude by by saying that this

was an amazing uh

discussion thank you so much i mean you

bring

so much depth and insight uh

and uniqueness so thank you very very

much for sharing all that with us

um i wish you a wonderful evening

and i look forward to the next time

thank you so much thank you thank you

thank you

bye-bye