Peta Jalan IHSG, masa depan BBCA BMRI BBRI BBNI, Petaka MERI

Summary

The transcript discusses the dynamics of market rebounds and bullish trends, focusing on measuring a 20% increase from the lowest to the close as a key indicator of a bullish phase. It highlights historical market rebounds, comparing them to current conditions. The speaker stresses the importance of respecting risk mitigation and shares insights on using a trading system to automate decisions. The video also critiques fundamental analysis and stresses the importance of understanding market conditions beyond financial reports. It concludes with optimism for the market's future, while cautioning against hasty, uninformed decisions.

Takeaways

• 😀 Rebound markets can happen quickly, with some rebounds even occurring faster than others, such as the COVID crash.
• 😀 A bullish market is defined as a 20% increase from the lowest to the close, not necessarily breaking all-time highs.
• 😀 Bullish and crash conditions are measured based on the 20% movement, whether rising or falling, from the highest or lowest points.
• 😀 The market experienced a 20% rebound in just 24 bars (candles), showing rapid recovery.
• 😀 The goal is to avoid creating FOMO (fear of missing out) and maintain risk mitigation, rather than getting people to buy impulsively.
• 😀 Healthy pullbacks with low volume are part of market consolidation, where the risk of a crash is mitigated by the right trading system.
• 😀 Data-driven analysis, like tracking how many issuers are performing well or badly, helps evaluate the market's strength and risks.
• 😀 Rebounds in the market don't always happen straight up; pullbacks and corrections are normal, with the big trend remaining upward.
• 😀 Historical data suggests that after a crash, bullish conditions can last anywhere from 1 year and 4 months to 2 years.
• 😀 The future of the market may seem uncertain, but historical patterns suggest long-term bullish trends, and patience is important for catching opportunities.
• 😀 Fundamental analysis should not be limited to financial statements; it also involves understanding company assets, land banks, permits, and corporate actions like rights issues.

Q & A

What is a rebound market, and how is it measured?

A rebound market refers to a market that experiences a sharp recovery after a significant drop. It is measured by the percentage increase from the lowest point to the closing price, typically aiming for at least a 20% increase.

Why is a 20% increase used as a threshold for defining a rebound or a bullish market?

A 20% increase is considered significant enough to confirm a market shift. In market terminology, a 'crash' occurs when there is a 20% drop from the highest point to the close, and a 'bullish' market is defined by a 20% rise from the lowest point to the close.

What role does risk mitigation play in a trading strategy during a rebound?

Risk mitigation ensures that traders are not exposed to excessive losses during a market pullback. It involves automated systems, such as the 'dragon's footprint trading system,' which reduces the number of open positions and ensures more targeted, safer investments.

What makes the current market rebound in the script so unique compared to past rebounds?

The current rebound is noteworthy because it reached a 20% increase in just 24 bars (or candles), making it one of the fastest recoveries, second only to the COVID crash recovery, which took only 8 candles.

How do pullbacks factor into the analysis of a rebound, and why are they important?

Pullbacks are periods where the market temporarily drops before continuing its upward trend. They are important because they offer opportunities for entry at lower prices and help confirm that the market is still healthy if they occur with low volume and don't result in a new low.

How does the script view short-term pullbacks, and what impact do they have on long-term bullish trends?

Short-term pullbacks are seen as normal and even healthy for a long-term bullish trend. As long as the pullback doesn't break new lows and happens with low volume, it is considered a consolidation rather than a sign of a market crash.

What does the script suggest about the market’s future, based on historical data?

Based on historical data, the script suggests that after a crash, the market tends to enter a bullish phase lasting from 1 year and 4 months to 2 years. Even during periods of economic challenge, like in 2014, the market has shown resilience.

How does the script distinguish between technical analysis and fundamental analysis?

The script emphasizes that fundamental analysis goes beyond just financial reports like balance sheets and income statements. It includes deeper insights like land acquisition costs for property companies or permit details for mining companies, while technical analysis involves chart patterns and indicators like moving averages.

What was the significance of the 2016 market recovery, and how does it compare to previous rebounds?

The 2016 market recovery was significant because it was a prolonged bullish phase lasting more than 1 year. This trend contrasts with the rapid rebounds in 2013 and 2020, demonstrating that bullish trends can vary in duration.

What is the key takeaway about the future of the market based on the analysis in the script?

The key takeaway is that the market is currently in a bullish phase, and while there will be pullbacks, the general upward trend could last for 1 to 2 years. The script advises not to worry about short-term fluctuations and focuses on long-term strategies that respect risk management.