US enters war with Iran: What comes next? | Ian Bremmer's Quick Take

Summary

Ian Bremmer discusses the escalating conflict involving the U.S. and Iran, where the U.S. has joined Israel in bombing Iranian nuclear facilities. He explores President Trump's previous foreign policy failures, particularly regarding negotiations with Russia, Israel, and Iran. The U.S. and Israel’s actions, aimed at weakening Iran's nuclear capabilities, mark a significant shift in strategy, but Bremmer questions the likelihood of lasting peace. He also touches on Iran’s possible responses, including rogue attacks and the future of the regime under increasing pressure. The situation remains volatile, with no clear resolution in sight.

Takeaways

• 😀 The United States has officially entered the war in Iran, with bombing attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, particularly the Fordow site.
• 😀 Trump and Netanyahu's push for military action against Iran has been supported by the US, despite earlier attempts at diplomatic negotiations.
• 😀 Trump's main foreign policy focus has been peacemaking, but so far his efforts in negotiations with Russia, Israel, and Iran have failed.
• 😀 The US involvement in the conflict is not expected to escalate into a prolonged war, but rather a series of limited, spectacular strikes.
• 😀 There is concern about Iranian retaliation, particularly through proxy forces targeting American bases in the region, but no major escalation has occurred so far.
• 😀 The US has significantly increased its military presence in the Gulf, preparing for potential Iranian retaliation, but the critical energy infrastructure has remained mostly intact.
• 😀 The Iranian leadership is currently acting rationally, but their restraint could weaken as their military capabilities decrease and leadership becomes more desperate.
• 😀 There are fears that rogue factions within the Iranian military could take uncoordinated actions, including terrorist attacks or strikes on shipping routes.
• 😀 Regime change in Iran is unlikely, as Israel lacks the military capabilities for such an operation, and there are no indications of a popular uprising in Iran at this time.
• 😀 The Israelis may continue to strike Iran's regime, but without the ability to instigate a regime change, which could lead to more desperate actions from the Iranian leadership.

Q & A

What triggered the United States' formal entry into the conflict with Iran?

The United States formally entered the conflict after providing significant support to Israel, including intelligence and military backing, and then expanding their actions by bombing Iran's nuclear facilities, such as the Fordow facility.

What was Trump's initial approach toward Iran before military strikes were ordered?

Initially, President Trump sought negotiations with Iran, aiming for a deal that would lead to Iran dismantling its nuclear capabilities. However, once Israel began its strikes, negotiations became less viable, leading to military escalation.

How did Israel influence U.S. actions in the conflict with Iran?

Israel played a significant role in pressuring President Trump to abandon negotiations with Iran and instead push for direct military action, culminating in the U.S. bombing Iranian nuclear facilities.

What is the nature of the U.S. military strikes against Iran?

The U.S. strikes against Iran have been limited and highly targeted, focusing on significant nuclear facilities. These actions are designed to be quick, impactful, and avoid a prolonged conflict, aligning with Trump's desire for a 'spectacular' win rather than a full-scale war.

What risks does the U.S. face regarding military personnel in the region?

The U.S. faces risks from Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and other regions, which could target American forces. Additionally, there is the potential for retaliatory strikes from Iranian proxies, particularly in places like Djibouti, where U.S. bases are located.

What has been Iran's response to the U.S. and Israeli strikes?

So far, Iran has shown restraint, avoiding major attacks on shipping or critical infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz. However, their leadership is under pressure, and there is the possibility of rogue elements within the Iranian military escalating the situation.

What are the potential consequences of Iranian actions as their leadership weakens?

As Iran's military capabilities degrade and leadership faces greater threats, there is a higher likelihood of irrational or desperate actions, including terrorist attacks, targeted assassinations, or smaller-scale strikes, possibly against U.S. military leaders or assets.

Why is regime change in Iran unlikely despite Israeli strikes?

Regime change in Iran is unlikely because Israel lacks the capability to bring it about through airstrikes or disinformation. Achieving regime change would require significant ground forces or a popular uprising, neither of which are currently realistic.

What is the broader strategic objective behind Israeli strikes on Iran?

Israel's broader strategic objective is to weaken Iran's military capabilities and reduce its international influence, rather than pursuing regime change. Israel aims to keep pressure on Iran while avoiding direct military interventions that would require a large-scale occupation.

What are the long-term implications of the ongoing conflict for the region?

The long-term implications include continued instability in the region, with Iran potentially becoming more isolated and desperate. The U.S. and Israel may continue targeted strikes, while the possibility of broader regional conflict remains contingent on how Iran responds and whether its leadership holds.