如何看待中国的一带一路？｜一带一路｜习近平｜普京｜中国制造｜基建狂魔｜全球门户｜王局拍案20231025

Summary

The transcript covers China's Belt and Road initiative, which was proposed by Xi Jinping in 2013. The key arguments made are: 1) Belt and Road was proposed to deal with China's problem of excess manufacturing capacity as it transitions to a developed economy. By exporting infrastructure capacity abroad through Belt and Road projects, China can maintain employment and economic growth, while avoiding hollowing out of domestic industries. 2) There are signs that China's manufacturing remains competitive internationally. For example, China beat Japan to win the bid for the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway project in Indonesia, despite offering worse loan terms, by willing to take on all operational risk and requiring no sovereign guarantee from Indonesia. 3) Whether Belt and Road succeeds depends on two factors - China's continued economic growth to fund overseas projects, and recipient countries achieving enough economic growth for projects like railways to become profitable. For the latter, not all developing countries can replicate China's high growth. 4) Belt and Road also has political motivations, not just economic. By leveraging debt traps, China gains political influence in places like Bangladesh and Montenegro. The risk of this debt strategy disturbs Western powers. 5) It is still early to evaluate if Belt and Road can transform from capital injection to catalysis for economic growth. But China has only begun challenging the global order by attempting to shape its rules and leverage smaller nations. Countries still lack countermeasures against moves like Belt and Road. In summary, Belt and Road has sound economic motivations and shows some continued competitiveness. But its sustainability depends on economic growth, while political motivations mean China can still benefit if projects fail financially. We likely need more time to evaluate Belt and Road’s success and implications for global influence.

Takeaways

• China proposed the Belt and Road initiative in 2013 to export its manufacturing capacity and address overcapacity issues.
• The Belt and Road initiative has both economic and political goals for China.
• China has invested over $1 trillion in Belt and Road projects in the past decade.
• Russia has become economically dependent on China due to Belt and Road investments.
• China competed with Japan to build a high-speed rail in Indonesia, demonstrating its infrastructure capabilities.
• The success of Belt and Road relies on continued economic growth in China and recipient countries.
• The Belt and Road initiative allows China to gain political influence through debt-trap diplomacy.
• The U.S. and E.U. have launched initiatives to counter China's Belt and Road.
• It's still early to fully evaluate the success of the Belt and Road initiative.
• The Belt and Road initiative is an attempt by China to shape a new international order.

Q & A

Why did China initiate the Belt and Road?

China wanted to export its manufacturing capacity and address issues like overcapacity as its economy develops. Belt and Road opens new horizons for China's economy.

How much has China invested in Belt and Road projects?

China has invested over $1 trillion in Belt and Road projects over the past decade.

How has Belt and Road impacted China's relationship with Russia?

Massive Chinese investments in Russia, exceeding $300 billion, have made Russia economically dependent on China.

How did China demonstrate its infrastructure capabilities through Belt and Road?

China competed with and beat Japan in bidding to build a high-speed rail in Indonesia, showcasing its infrastructure capabilities.

What factors impact the success of Belt and Road projects?

Continued economic growth in China and recipient countries is key to the success and sustainability of Belt and Road projects.

How does Belt and Road allow China to gain political influence?

Debt-trap diplomacy lets China gain political leverage and influence through Belt and Road investments.

How are the U.S. and E.U. responding to Belt and Road?

The U.S. and E.U. have launched initiatives like Global Gateway and Global Fund to provide alternatives to Belt and Road.

Can we evaluate if Belt and Road has succeeded yet?

It's still early to fully evaluate the success of Belt and Road as it's an ongoing, long-term initiative.

How does Belt and Road help China shape international order?

Belt and Road allows China to gain allies and influence through investments, shaping international dynamics.

What are the goals of the Belt and Road initiative?

The Belt and Road initiative has dual economic goals like exporting capacity and political goals like gaining influence for China.