UBI Failed and Everyone Is Pretending It Didn't

Summary

This video delves into the implications of Universal Basic Income (UBI), particularly in light of AI’s potential to replace many jobs. The speaker critiques a study by Open Research, founded by Sam Altman, suggesting that UBI could be a solution to mass unemployment caused by AI. They argue that while the study highlights positive effects of UBI, such as increased flexibility, it overlooks negative outcomes, like spending on leisure. The speaker also advocates for lump sum payments over monthly disbursements, citing real-world examples. Ultimately, they urge viewers to critically assess both research and media portrayals of UBI’s benefits.

Takeaways

• 😀 UBI (Universal Basic Income) studies show mixed results, with some positive but limited outcomes on income, spending, and psychological well-being.
• 😀 UBI trials often lead to increased spending on leisure activities, rather than investing in education or career development, potentially reinforcing poverty.
• 😀 The study examined by the speaker was conducted by Open Research, a company linked to Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest.
• 😀 AI automation is expected to displace many jobs in the next 5-10 years, potentially leaving large segments of the population without work and income.
• 😀 The introduction of AI is compared to the introduction of tractors in farming, which drastically reduced the number of laborers needed, with similar risks for service-sector jobs.
• 😀 Sam Altman and other AI leaders may promote UBI as a solution to the job displacement caused by automation, making them invested in presenting UBI in a positive light.
• 😀 The study under review was conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have influenced its findings due to economic disruptions caused by lockdowns.
• 😀 The monthly UBI model tested in the study may not be as effective as lump sum payments, which allow people to make larger, more impactful investments in improving their economic prospects.
• 😀 Lump sum UBI payments, as seen in a study in Liberia, enable people to make larger investments (e.g., upgrading housing), which may lead to greater long-term economic mobility.
• 😀 Monthly UBI payments can often be absorbed by immediate needs or leisure spending, making it harder to invest in personal development or assets that can improve earning potential.
• 😀 Critical thinking is essential when evaluating research, especially considering the motives of those funding or conducting the studies, as corporate interests may shape the findings presented to the public.

Q & A

What is the main argument of the speaker regarding Universal Basic Income (UBI)?

The speaker argues that while UBI is often presented as a solution to economic instability caused by job loss due to AI automation, the research promoting UBI is often biased. It overlooks negative outcomes, such as UBI making people poorer in certain scenarios, and emphasizes secondary benefits like increased possibility and flexibility.

Why does the speaker believe the research on UBI might be biased?

The speaker suggests that the research is biased because it is funded by Open Research, a company founded by Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI. Given that AI technology could displace many jobs, Altman and his company have an incentive to make UBI seem like a viable solution to an economic collapse caused by widespread unemployment.

How does the speaker predict AI will affect the workforce?

The speaker predicts that AI will lead to significant job displacement, particularly within the next 5-10 years. He compares AI to the introduction of tractors in farming, where AI will perform tasks more efficiently, leading to fewer jobs and, in turn, an economic collapse as fewer people will have incomes to spend.

What is the potential economic impact of widespread job loss due to AI, according to the speaker?

The speaker believes that if many people lose their jobs due to AI, there will be a collapse of the economy. Without income, people won't be able to buy goods or services, leading to a vicious cycle of reduced consumption and economic contraction.

What are the two different models of UBI the speaker mentions?

The speaker mentions two models of UBI: the monthly income model, where recipients receive a fixed amount each month, and the lump-sum model, where recipients receive the total amount of UBI at the start of the year. The speaker argues that the lump-sum model is more beneficial.

Why does the speaker prefer the lump-sum UBI model over the monthly income model?

The speaker prefers the lump-sum model because it allows recipients to make large investments, such as buying a car or paying off debt, which can improve their earning potential. Monthly payments, on the other hand, can be easily diverted to other expenses, reducing the ability to invest in long-term growth.

What example does the speaker provide to support the lump-sum UBI model?

The speaker cites a study in Liberia where UBI recipients used their lump-sum payments to upgrade their grass roofs to metal roofs, improving their living conditions and economic potential. The study found that even when monthly UBI payments were provided, the community pooled the money to effectively create a lump sum for each individual.

What behavior did people in the Liberian study exhibit when given monthly UBI payments?

In the Liberian study, people receiving monthly UBI payments pooled their money together to mimic the effects of a lump sum, ensuring that each person could upgrade their roof. This behavior suggests that people understand the benefits of a lump sum and will often find ways to convert monthly payments into a more impactful form.

What is the speaker's opinion on the effectiveness of UBI based on the study in Liberia?

The speaker believes that while UBI can be beneficial in certain circumstances, such as in Liberia where people used lump sums to improve their living conditions, its effectiveness in other settings, especially in more individualistic societies, may vary. The key takeaway is that lump sums might have more significant impacts on long-term financial stability and human capital development.

How does the speaker suggest we approach research on UBI?

The speaker recommends critically evaluating research on UBI, particularly looking at the sources, motives, and potential biases of the researchers. They emphasize the importance of reading the original papers, considering who funds the research, and questioning how findings are reported in the media to get a more balanced view.