Der Kapitalmarktausblick im Oktober 2024

Summary

The video discusses the current state of global markets, highlighting key developments in the U.S. and European economies. The DAX has surpassed 19,000 points, while the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts aim to curb inflation and sustain growth. In Europe, weak manufacturing data raises recession concerns, but China’s economic initiatives offer hope. The U.S. consumer remains strong, driven by sectors like technology and services. Gold benefits from falling interest rates, and artificial intelligence is improving productivity. However, commercial real estate in the U.S. faces challenges, impacting regional banks and funds.

Takeaways

• 📈 The US stock markets have reached over 40 all-time highs, and the DAX has surpassed the 19,000-point mark, resuming its upward trend.
• 🏦 The US Federal Reserve has begun its interest rate adjustment as recent economic data appears weak, and China is launching multiple growth initiatives.
• 📉 Europe’s manufacturing sector is experiencing a recession due to overcapacity, inflation, and high energy prices, but the services sector remains a positive growth driver.
• 🇨🇳 China's recent economic stimulus package could have positive spillover effects on the European economy.
• 🇺🇸 Despite some signs of slowdown, the US service sector shows stronger growth than in Europe, suggesting an economic growth rate just below 3%.
• 💰 The US Federal Reserve is aggressively lowering interest rates to return to a neutral rate and stimulate the economy further, with expectations for continued cuts through Q2 2025.
• 📊 Bonds may not show their usual strong performance in this rate-cutting cycle as yields are already below the key interest rate level.
• 📉 The performance of stocks in the next 12 months will depend on whether there’s a recession or just a slowdown; avoiding a recession could lead to above-average stock performance.
• 🗳️ US elections could impact the markets, especially if the outcome is contested, but a split Congress would likely stabilize the situation.
• 💰 Gold benefits from falling interest rates but has recently been influenced by the weaker US dollar, meaning its price in euros hasn’t increased as much.

Q & A

What is the current situation in the US and German stock markets?

The US stock markets have reached over 40 all-time highs, while the German DAX has surpassed 19,000 points, resuming its upward trend after a brief pause.

What major global economic developments are taking place?

The US Federal Reserve has started lowering interest rates, recent economic data has been weak, China's growth initiatives are ongoing, and inflation is decreasing.

Should we be concerned about a recession in Europe?

There is already a recession in the manufacturing sector due to overcapacity, high inflation, and energy prices. However, the services sector is still contributing positively, and China's recent economic stimulus package could have positive spillover effects on Europe.

Why has the US Federal Reserve significantly lowered interest rates?

The US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates sharply due to a noticeable decline in inflation, which gives them more flexibility. They are aiming to reach a neutral interest rate that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy, expecting more rate cuts into 2025.

How do interest rate cuts affect bonds?

While bonds typically benefit from interest rate cuts, the potential for above-average performance is limited this time. Bond yields are already lower than central bank rates, reducing the usual upside seen during such cycles.

What impact could a recession or an economic slowdown have on stock performance?

In a recession, stock performance tends to stagnate, providing below-average returns. However, if a recession is avoided and only a slowdown occurs, stocks could see above-average performance, contributing significantly to portfolio returns.

Could the upcoming US elections change the economic outlook?

While media focus is on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will win, the more important factor is the balance of power in Congress. A divided Congress could provide stability, though a contested election result could temporarily disrupt markets.

How are gold prices expected to perform in light of falling interest rates?

Gold typically benefits from interest rate cuts because it doesn’t pay interest, making it more attractive as opportunity costs fall. However, its recent strength is also linked to US dollar weakness.

What were the key takeaways from the recent investor conference in San Francisco?

First, US consumers remain in a strong spending mood. Second, artificial intelligence is increasingly driving productivity gains of 10-12%. Third, the commercial real estate market in the US is facing high vacancy rates, negatively impacting regional banks and real estate funds.

How has the asset management strategy performed for the firm’s clients?

The firm's strategies have outperformed benchmark indices, particularly in sustainable asset management, which delivered over 4 percentage points of outperformance this year.