美银版推背图？NaNa说美股(2024.09.24)

Summary

On September 24th, US stock markets opened flat but fell as consumer confidence dropped sharply, and Richmond's manufacturing index hit a four-and-a-half-year low. Despite Fed's Bowman hinting at cautious rate cuts, markets rebounded on expectations of aggressive cuts in November. Tech stocks rose, led by Nvidia, while credit services fell due to Visa's poor performance. TLT approached its 50-day moving average after last week's rate cut. The S&P 500 index touched its 5-day moving average for support, continuing its September rally. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks surged on policy stimulus, and luxury goods stocks rose on signs of a Chinese economic recovery.

Takeaways

• 📉 U.S. stock markets opened flat and fell in early trading due to a decline in consumer confidence and poor manufacturing data.
• 📈 Despite the initial drop, stocks recovered and ended slightly higher, with chip stocks leading the gains.
• 📉 The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has been falling, reflecting profit-taking after last week's rate cut.
• 💹 The S&P 500 index touched a new high, defying the typical September downturn.
• 📊 Market volatility is expected to increase in the coming weeks due to economic data releases and the U.S. presidential election.
• 📈 Chinese stocks surged on policy stimulus news, with the 3x做多FTSE China ETF (YINN) jumping over 29%.
• 📈 Commodities, especially base metals, rose on the back of China's stimulus measures and expectations of a U.S. economic soft landing.
• 📉 Snowflake (SNOW) continued to underperform despite the market rally, announcing a plan to issue convertible bonds for stock buybacks and potential acquisitions.
• 📉 Dell Technologies was re-added to the S&P 500, but insider selling and lackluster performance overshadowed the news.
• 📉 Visa (V) fell sharply due to an antitrust lawsuit filed by the U.S. Department of Justice, alleging the company monopolized the debit card market.
• 📉 Scientific Games (SGMS) saw a significant drop in stock price after a court banned the sale of one of its products for copyright infringement.

Q & A

What happened to the U.S. stock market on September 24th?

The U.S. stock market opened flat and experienced a decline in the morning due to the release of disappointing economic data.

What was the unexpected result of the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in September?

The U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 98.7, which was the largest decline in three years, and was below the expected 104.

How did the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank's manufacturing index perform in September?

The Richmond Federal Reserve Bank's manufacturing index fell to -21 in September from -19 in August, indicating a decline in factory activity to a four-and-a-half-year low.

Who is the current most hawkish member of the FOMC?

The most hawkish member of the FOMC is now Michelle Bowman, who opposed a 50 basis point rate cut at the last meeting.

What is the current yield of the TLT ETF?

The current yield of the TLT ETF is approximately 3.6%.

What special benefits does the Futu moomoo app offer to new users in the United States?

New users in the United States can enjoy a high-interest savings account with an annual rate of 8.1% without any minimum threshold and with FDIC insurance.

What is the current valuation level of the S&P 500 Index?

The S&P 500 Index is nearing a valuation level of 22 times.

What is the projected level of the S&P 500 Index by the end of the year according to DataTrek Research?

DataTrek Research projects the S&P 500 Index to reach 6000 points by the end of the year.

What are the key dates that could affect the stock market from now until the U.S. presidential election in November?

Key dates include the non-farm data on October 4th, the Q3 earnings reports in late October, the non-farm data on November 1st, and the presidential election on November 6th.

How did Chinese stocks perform on September 24th?

Chinese stocks experienced a significant rally on September 24th, boosted by policy announcements and stimulus measures from the Chinese government.

What was the reason behind the sharp decline in the stock price of U.S. casino giant Scientific Games on September 24th?

The stock price of Scientific Games declined sharply due to a court ruling that banned the sale of their product 'Dragon Train' over alleged intellectual property infringement.