Bitcoin Fib Tutorial - Fibonacci Retracements - Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Summary
TLDRDans cette vidéo, Brian Beamish, également connu sous le nom de Coach Brian, présente une leçon sur l'utilisation des outils de retracement de Fibonacci sur la plateforme Coinage. Il explique comment tracer les niveaux de Fibonacci pour analyser les mouvements du marché, en se concentrant sur leur utilisation pour repérer les zones de résistance ou de support. Brian partage également ses astuces, comme la modification du niveau par défaut de 76,4 % à 78,6 %, et discute de l'importance du niveau de 38,2 % dans la prise de décision pour les traders. Il conclut avec une introduction au concept de zone d'entrée optimale.
Takeaways
- 💡 Brian Beamish, alias Coach Brian, présente une série de tutoriels sur les outils de trading de la plateforme Coinage.
- 🔑 Le focus de cette session est sur l'utilisation de l'outil de retracement de Fibonacci (Fib) pour analyser les marchés.
- 📊 Le retracement de Fibonacci permet aux traders de mesurer les corrections dans les mouvements de marché et de déterminer les niveaux potentiels de retour.
- 🔍 Les niveaux Fib comme 23,6 %, 38,2 %, 50 %, 61,8 % et 78,6 % sont utilisés pour anticiper les niveaux où le marché peut se retourner.
- 🖱️ Brian recommande de modifier le niveau par défaut de 76,4 % à 78,6 %, car 76,4 % n'est pas un niveau Fib pertinent selon les traders expérimentés.
- 🚫 Il critique l'inclusion du niveau de 50 % dans l'outil de Fibonacci, car ce n'est pas un vrai niveau de Fibonacci, mais plutôt un niveau de Gann.
- 🎯 Le niveau de 38,2 % est décrit comme un 'premier stop' crucial pour déterminer si une tendance va continuer ou s'inverser.
- 🐋 Les grandes institutions, ou 'whales', ne vendent pas dans des marchés en baisse, mais attendent que le prix atteigne des zones optimales pour entrer dans une position.
- 📈 La 'zone d'entrée de trade optimale' (OTE) se situe entre les niveaux de 61,8 % et 78,6 %, où les institutions placent souvent des ordres de vente.
- 📉 Brian met en avant l'importance de la structure du marché pour identifier les zones d'entrée et de sortie, en s'appuyant sur des configurations techniques comme les doubles tops et bottoms.
Q & A
Quelle est la plateforme utilisée dans cette vidéo pour l'analyse des marchés?
-La plateforme utilisée est Coinigy, qui permet d'accéder à plusieurs échanges de cryptomonnaies comme BitFinex.
Quel est l'outil principal abordé dans ce tutoriel?
-L'outil principal abordé dans ce tutoriel est l'outil de retracement de Fibonacci, couramment utilisé par les traders professionnels.
Pourquoi l'auteur recommande-t-il de modifier le niveau de Fibonacci 76,4% à 78,6%?
-L'auteur explique que le niveau 76,4% n'est pas pertinent pour les traders professionnels et que le niveau correct est 78,6%, car il reflète mieux les véritables niveaux de Fibonacci utilisés en analyse technique.
Que représente le niveau de Fibonacci de 38,2% selon l'auteur?
-Le niveau de 38,2% est considéré comme un 'premier objectif d'arrêt'. C'est un niveau clé où le marché pourrait s'arrêter et décider s'il continue à baisser ou à remonter.
Quel est le rôle des 'institutions' ou 'whales' dans les marchés selon l'auteur?
-Les institutions ou 'whales' ne participent pas à la panique des petits investisseurs; elles n'achètent pas pendant les hausses importantes ni ne vendent pendant les baisses. Elles attendent des zones optimales de trading pour intervenir.
Qu'est-ce que la 'zone d'entrée optimale' ou OTE selon l'auteur?
-La zone d'entrée optimale (Optimal Trade Entry) est une zone entre les niveaux de retracement 61,8% et 78,6% où les institutions sont plus susceptibles de vendre en cas de hausse ou d'acheter en cas de baisse.
Comment l'auteur explique-t-il le concept de la structure du marché?
-La structure du marché est définie par des modèles de prix comme les sommets en forme de 'M' pour les signaux de vente. Ces structures aident à identifier des points d'entrée ou de sortie pour les trades.
Pourquoi l'auteur retire-t-il le niveau de Fibonacci de 50% dans ses analyses?
-L'auteur explique que le niveau de 50% n'est pas un niveau Fibonacci réel, mais plutôt un niveau utilisé par les traders de la méthode Gann. Il ne le considère pas pertinent dans une analyse purement Fibonacci.
Quelles sont les trois raisons que l'auteur recommande de rechercher avant de prendre une position de trading?
-L'auteur conseille d'attendre trois signaux indépendants avant de prendre une position de trading, comme un échec de momentum, une structure de marché ou un signal de chandelle.
Quel est le principal objectif de cette vidéo selon l'auteur?
-L'objectif de cette vidéo est d'expliquer comment utiliser l'outil de Fibonacci pour analyser les marchés et identifier les zones clés de retracement et de résistance dans les mouvements de prix.
Outlines
👋 Introduction à Coinage et au tutoriel sur les outils
Brian Beamish, également appelé Coach Brian, se présente et introduit la plateforme Coinage. Il montre comment accéder à la plateforme et aux outils de trading disponibles, en particulier la paire BTC sur Bitfinex. Brian explique qu'il est un utilisateur régulier de Coinage et qu'il va se concentrer sur l'outil Fibonacci dans cette session, tout en mentionnant des ressources supplémentaires sur son site, 'The Rational Investor'.
📊 Utilisation de l'outil Fibonacci et conseils pratiques
Brian commence par expliquer comment tracer une rétraction Fibonacci sur un mouvement de baisse du prix du Bitcoin. Il montre comment utiliser l'outil pour évaluer le pourcentage de récupération d'un mouvement initial, allant de 23,6% à 100%. Il conseille également de remplacer le niveau par défaut de 76,4% par 78,6%, car ce dernier est plus précis pour les traders expérimentés, et discute des niveaux de 50%, souvent inclus par les programmeurs, mais qui ne sont pas pertinents pour une analyse Fibonacci stricte.
🎯 Cibler les niveaux de Fibonacci pour des points d'entrée optimaux
Brian détaille l'importance du niveau de 38,2%, qu'il considère comme le premier objectif à surveiller. Si ce niveau est atteint, il peut signaler la continuation ou la fin d'une tendance. Il explique comment ce niveau est un bon indicateur pour éviter de mauvais trades. Brian partage également un enseignement clé de son mentor sur l'importance de ce niveau pour résoudre les mouvements de marché, soulignant que sa résolution permet de définir les prochaines étapes de la tendance.
📈 Stratégies de trading institutionnel et zones d'entrée optimales
Brian explique comment les institutions, qu'il appelle 'whales', ne vendent pas dans des marchés baissiers ni achètent dans des marchés haussiers. Ils attendent des zones d'entrée optimales pour agir, en particulier entre les niveaux de 61,8% et 78,6% de Fibonacci. Il démontre l'importance de la structure du marché et souligne que les traders institutionnels attendent souvent que le marché remonte dans ces zones avant d'agir. Il encourage les traders à suivre cette logique pour optimiser leurs entrées.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Fibonacci retracement
💡Coinigy
💡BTC (Bitcoin)
💡Marché haussier
💡Marché baissier
💡38,2 % Fib
💡Institutionnels
💡Optimal Trade Entry (OTE)
💡Structure de marché
💡23,6 % Fib
Highlights
Introduction to Coinigy platform tools and services for trading, focusing on the BTC chart.
Fibonacci retracements are powerful tools used by professional traders, but new traders often lack a formal introduction to them.
Loading the Coinigy platform and selecting different exchanges for cryptocurrency analysis (e.g., BTC on Bitfinex).
Demonstration on how to use the Fibonacci retracement tool on the Coinigy platform to measure market moves.
Explanation of different Fibonacci levels (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%) and how they represent retracements of a prior move.
Correction: The 76.4% retracement level is not relevant in trading, should be replaced with 78.6% based on trader standards.
50% level, while commonly used in technical analysis, is not a true Fibonacci level but rather a Gann level.
Emphasis on the 38.2% Fibonacci level as the first significant target, where traders should wait for market confirmation.
Introduction to the concept of the 'optimal trade entry zone' (OTE) between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels.
Discussion of institutional trading strategies and how institutions avoid buying up moves or selling down markets.
How institutions look to short markets within the optimal trade entry zone, rather than chasing price.
Explanation of how Fibonacci retracements align with market structure, particularly horizontal support and resistance levels.
Guidance on using Fibonacci retracements to determine if a market is trending or ranging, helping traders avoid bad trades.
Overview of range trading and how to use Fibonacci levels to establish a two-to-one reward-to-risk ratio.
Teaser for future tutorials on Fibonacci extensions and how to use them to target profit levels beyond the original move.
Transcripts
hello everyone welcome back to the
rational investor dot SEOs
ongoing tutorial series here with the
good people at coinage II introducing
you to some of their site tools and
services they have to offer
basically my name is Brian Beamish
people call me coach Brian I run a
website called the rational mr. CEO and
as you probably watch some of these
tutorials in the past I'm fairly
comfortable and I really like working
with the coinage platform and so I'm
here just demonstrating how we use some
of this stuff so you know I've loaded
the coinage esight going to G com I'm
going to click my sign in I've already
done this so when you do sign in and you
load up your charts probably going to
look something along these lines so this
is basically a default setting you'll
notice here in the symbol box I've just
gone in here and I've typed BTC and you
can see on the coin AG platform they
give you access to a number of different
exchanges so we're here on bit Finex
and I have just selected BTC as you can
see if you wanted to say look at
litecoin well there's like quite nice
and simple right so we're just going to
click on BTC and today we're going to
concentrate on the fib tool because we
don't really talk too much a little bit
different type of analysis here in that
Fibonacci retracements are very powerful
and very handy for professional traders
to use but a lot of new people to
trading really don't get sort of a
formal introduction to them by all means
if you are interested you can always pop
on over to our site the rational
investor calm and I have a bunch of free
tutorials here so if you do want to do
some more reading on your own I put
together a bunch of videos here on how
to use fibs as well
my school program we spend a couple
weeks working on fibs but just to give
you the general gist of what's going on
here and how we're going to use this
tool on trading excuse me on on our
trades day to day basis on coinage II
what I've done like I said we load a
Bitcoin chart here this is one hour I
mean we can it really doesn't matter
what time frame you use the important
thing here is just getting their levels
correctly and how you've drawn them so
for the purposes of to today today let's
try that again the for the purposes of
today's tutorial we're going to minimize
the volume we don't really need to see
that right now we're gonna go like we
said on our drawing tools we're gonna
select the third selection which you see
is a whole bunch of horizontal lines if
you actually go into this you see that
it's right down here it says FIB
retracement
I do in my school programs concentrate
on a lot of these different tools so but
my advice to you is don't get too deep
into these because a lot of these
actually need very special
considerations when you're using them
we'll just concentrate on fibs today and
if there is demand we can always do
little tutorials on some of these other
tools as well so we're going to click on
fibrin trace mint you see in the box
that just shows you the little
horizontal lines and for the purposes of
this today's tutorial here we're going
to measure a retracement of this primary
move down here so we're going to start
up at the top and we're just going to
simply drag our fib tool all the way
down so that the lowest level right is
off these lows so what should end up
happening here right and this is an
important part so try and understand
this in if you have to play the video
back a couple times that's perfectly
alright by me you'll notice that when
I've drawn the tool down here the
numbers that you see here get successful
as successively higher
as we go back and what this study is
doing is we've drawn this primary move
and the study is asking if the market
rallies back how much of this original
move is the market going to take back so
you can see as the market bounced back
to here that was twenty three point six
percent of this original move market
rallies back to this level right here
that's thirty eight point two percent of
the move 50 percent sixty one point
eight percent seventy six point four and
of course if the market made it all the
way back right up top here that would be
a hundred percent of the move so a
couple things that I would mention about
the fib tool I believe that a lot of
these charting programs were written by
programmers and not necessarily traders
I've been actively a broker and a
proprietary trader as well as a private
investor for myself for more than
twenty-five years I can tell you with
full confidence that this number 76 4 is
not relevant in the trading community my
recommendation to you is to go in ah you
saw that I left click on the fib tool
alright that highlighted it then I right
click and I check format my advice to
you is to go in and literally change
this 78 points seventy six point four to
78 six point seven eight six that's the
appropriate fib level why the computer
programmers have decided on seventy six
point four I believe really the answer
is more out of convenience because
seventy six point four is an icy easy
inverse relationship to twenty three
point six not as a level that traders
are in true
to them all right now for the purposes
of my school and when I'm trading I'm
also not really that jazzed by the 23.6
quite often it doesn't set up a trade
level so I often just take that out next
we need to understand that again if we
think about this as these tools are
written by computer programmers and not
traders themselves we see that this 50%
level here is on this study by default
50% is not a Fibonacci level no ifs ands
or buts it is simply not a Fibonacci
level for those that are interested in
understanding the relevance of the 50%
rule that is a Gann level W began mr.
Dilbert gone I loved his middle name
anyway the point here is really if we
were going to be doing a textbook fib
study we really shouldn't have this 50%
level on here so let's get rid of it all
right now this is the way that I use
fibs
is I learned a long time ago and there's
a gentleman out of New York is very
popular floor trader and he runs a
service called IDT intuitive development
for traders and in my class if any of my
students are watching this video they
probably hear it a you know at nauseam
for me but basically the 38.2 fib is
what I like to call the first stop
target and mr. Bursch at mr. IDT he
actually teaches that we really
shouldn't even think about a trade until
this 38.2 level is quote-unquote
resolved
if this is a down move then quite often
in a downtrend and it's going to
continue lower often the 38 will be
tested market structure will come in it
will fail and continue on lower if
however this is some sort of serious
bottom right the market will test 38.2
back off and then move up through it so
you know hopefully you can take just
from today's video if you can apply 38.2
this will keep you out of a lot of
trouble and it will keep you out of a
lot of trading situations and as you can
clearly see mr. Bursch it was proven
right in that 38.2 actually represented
a very significant swing level here
right and now that the market has
resolved bullish Lee we can actually
start looking for higher timeframe
setups and higher fib level setups all
right so first big thing and I would
recommend you do this and this happens a
lot it doesn't matter what altcoin we're
looking at doesn't matter if it's big
coin doesn't matter if it's gold if it
stocks if it's bonds if it's currencies
38.2 our first stop target is often an
excellent barometer to tell us whether
this is a trending market and it's going
to continue lower or whether it's a
ranging market and we're going to come
up back up and test the highs
conversely well not conversely if 38.2
is resolved bullish ly in this case
right where are we most likely to find
the market to go to next and this is
where we come up with the concept of the
optimal trade entry zone all right now
we need to understand and I'll try and
be as brief as I can through this video
institutions are in crypto currency land
they would call them whales they do not
by up markets they're not gonna buy up
here all right
in fact I teach in my school that if you
worked on an institutional order desk or
like a bank room desk a trading desk and
you bought a big up move like this you
could get fired you literally lose your
job I mean as you can see this is
horrible trade location and oh boy the
firm would lost a ton of money
similarly institutions or whales do not
sell down markets right you know exact
same thing if you were working on an
institutional order desk and you got
sucked into the FOMO or fear of missing
out and you were panicking like all the
noobs right then in trading land and you
were dumping and saying bitcoins going
to zero you would have had your lunch
handed to you right and you probably
would have also lost your job remember
the public buys at the top and they sell
at the bottom institutions of the smart
money always make money they sell at the
top and buy back at the bottom right so
if we understand that basic principle
then our little fib tool becomes really
powerful because it basically highlights
right if you can understand that this is
nothing more than a trading range now
the OTE or optimal trade entry simply
breaks the trading range down and says
that if an institution was going to
short and remember if they're going to
short they're going to short up markets
then they are probably going to generate
some sort of rally into this zone and
what you also notice is I don't know
whether we've done it on previous
tutorials for you but I'm a really big
fan of the concept of market structure
we're struck
sure basically tells us where to buy and
sell assets right we have a bearish
market structure here lots of em's right
that are spitting up lots of sell
signals hopefully what you'll notice is
that the fib study suggests that the
optimal trade entry or where if
institutions are going to short where
they're most likely going to short is
the sixty one point eight to seventy
eight point six fibs right what a
coincidence that also happens to line up
off of a previous morph market structure
failure level understanding that
institutions do not sell down markets
and institutions see this market
structure and they want to be short from
here they will not panic and sell down
here they will just simply wait nice and
patiently for the market to work its way
back up into this zone to hit it again
as well the good part about this range
strategy in the concept of the optimal
trade entry zone is hopefully you can
see that if if you just simply approach
the market that I am going to consider
this a range right and if I am going to
simply say that I'm going to try and
short in this optimal trade entry zone
I'm going to risk to a break of the
highs of the range and my target is
ultimately going to be a test to the low
end of the range then what you see is by
definition we have a trade setup that
generates more than a two - excuse me
two to one reward over potential risk we
also need to understand that markets
range 80% of the time and they only
trend 20% of the time so technically
speaking if you took this short here in
the OTE range setup area by definition
you're letting the market you know what
it normally does work in your favor
right 80% of the time the markets going
to come up against these eyes fail and
head back down alright alright so
hopefully what I've done here and
actually I went a little bit overboard
but in this video hopefully what I've
done is I have shown you how to draw a
fib study I've also demonstrated the
levels Fibonacci Y's
that I think are most relevant we've
talked a little bit about mister
brochettes 38.2 what I like to call the
first stop target and its relevance and
then we've talked next about the concept
of the optimal trade entry zone and how
these fit numbers often line up with
previous horizontal support and
resistance and market structure failure
levels we finished off this tutorial
today with just a simple concept of the
range trader in that they'd like to find
the optimal trade entry zone hunt for
some sort of failure you know in my
previous videos we talked a little bit
about how I like to wait for three
independent reasons to take a trade well
if the market rallied into the OTE zone
I would consider that one reason then
maybe we get a momentum fail like you've
seen up my previous tutorials or maybe
we get a candlestick failure something
along those lines one two three away we
go all right um alright so I think I
basically does it for today's video
that's probably about 10-15 minutes
hopefully you have a pretty good
understanding of how I use the fib study
I think this is an excellent case
scenario here and in future studies will
talk about extension levels and what
levels I like to hunt for for extensions
and how you can use those so everybody
have yourself a great day I hope you
enjoyed this tutorial all the best and
we'll talk to you guys real soon
for him
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