Inference VS Prediction (Basic Science Process Skills) | RESEARCH I

Khristine Min Jin

1 Nov 202010:28

Summary

TLDRThis video lesson, led by Teacher Teammate, explores the difference between inference and prediction, two key scientific process skills. It provides definitions and examples of both concepts, illustrating how inference involves drawing conclusions based on observations, while prediction is an educated guess about future events. The lesson also highlights the similarities and differences between observation, inference, and prediction, emphasizing their roles in scientific inquiry. Viewers are encouraged to apply these skills in both scientific experiments and everyday life. The next lesson will cover classification, another important process skill.

Takeaways

📚 Inference and prediction are crucial skills in both literacy and scientific methods, forming part of the basic science process skills.
🔬 Inference involves using observation, background knowledge, and premises to draw a conclusion that makes sense.
🤔 Prediction is making an educated guess based on observations or prior knowledge about a future event.
🔍 Observation is the act of monitoring or watching something, while inference is drawing conclusions based on those observations.
😊 Example of inference: A child making a disgusted face after trying a fruit shake allows the observer to infer the child didn’t like the taste.
😢 Another example: Observing a friend crumple and cry after receiving a test paper leads to the inference that the friend failed the test.
💡 Prediction is based on patterns and observations, such as predicting a storm when noticing low pressure near the Philippine area.
🦟 Example of prediction: If bitten by a mosquito, one might predict the possibility of getting dengue.
📊 Both inference and prediction are based on observation, but neither guarantees certainty—they rely on patterns and educated guesses.
🌦️ Weather forecasts are common examples of predictions, where scientific evidence is used to predict future weather, but it’s still not 100% certain.

Q & A

What is the main focus of the lesson in the video?
-The main focus of the lesson is to explain the difference between inference and prediction, which are both important basic science process skills.
How does the video define inference?
-Inference is defined as a process of using observations, background knowledge, and other known premises to derive a conclusion that makes sense.
What is the definition of prediction according to the video?
-Prediction is described as an educated guess based on good observations or prior knowledge about an event or object, often focusing on future outcomes.
What example does the video use to explain inference?
-The video uses the example of a child making a disgusted face after trying a new fruit shake, allowing the mother to infer that the child didn't like the taste.
What example does the video provide to illustrate prediction?
-One example is predicting that a typhoon might occur after observing a low-pressure system forming near the Philippine area of responsibility.
What is the key difference between observation and inference?
-Observation involves directly monitoring or examining something, while inference is the act of drawing conclusions based on observations.
How are inference and prediction similar?
-Both inference and prediction are based on observation and are used to draw conclusions or guesses, though prediction focuses on future outcomes.
What does the video say about the certainty of predictions?
-Predictions are not certain; they are based on observations and patterns but may or may not actually happen, as exemplified by weather forecasts.
What process is suggested for making an inference?
-The process includes asking yourself what you observed, what you already know, how your knowledge explains the observation, and what the observation means.
What science process skill is covered in the next video lesson?
-The next lesson will cover classifying, which is another basic science process skill.

Outlines

00:00

🎶 Understanding Inference and Prediction in Science

The first paragraph introduces the concepts of inference and prediction, highlighting their importance in both literacy and science. Teacher Teammate welcomes viewers to the channel, explaining that the lesson focuses on these two basic science process skills. The teacher briefly reviews past lessons on observation and measurement and introduces inference and prediction as the third and fourth skills to be discussed in detail. The teacher emphasizes that these skills are crucial not only for scientific experiments but also for everyday reasoning, setting the stage for an in-depth exploration of their integration.

05:00

🔍 Defining Inference in Science

In the second paragraph, inference is defined as the process of using observations, background knowledge, and other premises to reach a logical conclusion. The teacher explains that inference helps scientists and individuals make sense of observations, using examples to clarify the concept. The paragraph uses the scenario of a child making a disgusted face after tasting a fruit shake, where the teacher draws an inference that the child didn’t like the taste. The detailed explanation of how inference works makes it easier for viewers to grasp the concept through real-world examples.

10:01

📜 Inference vs. Observation

This paragraph explains the difference between observation and inference. Observation is defined as the act of monitoring or examining events, while inference involves drawing conclusions from these observations. The teacher uses examples like a student crumpling her test paper and crying to distinguish between observation (the act of watching) and inference (the assumption that she failed the test). The paragraph also notes that observation is objective, while inference is subjective, further clarifying how the two processes differ and interrelate in science and daily life.

🌤️ Defining and Using Prediction

In this section, prediction is defined as an educated guess about future events, based on observations or prior knowledge. The teacher explains that predictions are often based on patterns and evidence, though not with certainty. Examples such as predicting a typhoon after observing low pressure in the area and predicting the possibility of contracting dengue after a mosquito bite are used to explain the concept. The teacher also mentions that prediction plays a key role in everyday decision-making, such as weather forecasts, which are based on scientific observation but aren't always certain.

🔗 The Link Between Inference and Prediction

Here, the teacher discusses how inference and prediction are related, emphasizing that both rely on observation. Despite being based on evidence, predictions may not always be accurate, as they are probabilistic rather than definitive. The paragraph explains that while both inference and prediction are essential to scientific processes, they also play a role in everyday activities. An example is given with weather forecasting, which demonstrates how predictions based on scientific data may or may not occur with certainty. The teacher highlights that both skills are interconnected in scientific reasoning.

📊 Conclusion: Observation, Inference, and Prediction Recap

The final paragraph wraps up the lesson, summarizing the definitions of observation, inference, and prediction. The teacher reiterates the key points of the lesson, emphasizing how these three basic science process skills work together to aid in scientific inquiry and everyday reasoning. Viewers are encouraged to stay tuned for the next vlog, where the fifth basic science process skill, classifying, will be covered. The teacher reminds viewers to subscribe and follow the channel for more updates, signing off until the next lesson.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Inference

Inference is the process of drawing a conclusion based on observations, background knowledge, and other premises. In the video, inference is explained as deriving conclusions from observed behaviors, such as assuming a child dislikes a fruit shake because they make a disgusted face. The video emphasizes that inference is a subjective process of explaining what has been observed.

💡Prediction

Prediction refers to making an educated guess about a future event based on observations and prior knowledge. In the video, prediction is exemplified by anticipating that a typhoon might occur when a low-pressure area forms. Prediction is highlighted as a core science process skill, often used to forecast outcomes in various scenarios, such as weather forecasts.

💡Observation

Observation is the act of closely monitoring or examining an event, object, or behavior. It serves as the foundation for making inferences and predictions. The video distinguishes observation as objective, meaning it is based purely on what is perceived, like noticing a child’s expression or seeing a low-pressure system forming in the atmosphere.

💡Basic Science Process Skills

Basic science process skills are fundamental skills used in scientific methods, such as observation, inference, and prediction. These skills are essential for carrying out experiments and understanding everyday events. In the video, the presenter explains that mastering these skills is crucial for both researchers and everyday problem-solving.

💡Subjective vs. Objective

Subjective refers to personal interpretations, often influenced by individual thoughts or feelings, while objective is based purely on observable facts. The video differentiates inference as subjective (based on assumptions) and observation as objective (focused on the facts observed). This distinction is important when teaching students how to properly analyze information.

💡Educated Guess

An educated guess is a prediction based on observations and prior knowledge. In the context of the video, prediction involves making such a guess, like anticipating a future outcome after carefully observing patterns or evidence, such as expecting a weather event after observing specific atmospheric conditions.

💡Deriving Conclusions

Deriving conclusions is the process of reaching a decision or judgment based on evidence, observations, or inferences. The video demonstrates this by showing how observations, like seeing a child’s reaction to a fruit shake, lead to conclusions, such as the child disliking the flavor. It’s a key element of inference.

💡Scientific Method

The scientific method is a structured process used by scientists to test hypotheses and theories through observations, experiments, and analysis. Basic science process skills, such as observation, inference, and prediction, are part of this method, as highlighted in the video. These skills help researchers investigate and understand phenomena systematically.

💡Integration of Skills

Integration of skills refers to how various basic science process skills, like observation, inference, and prediction, work together to analyze situations or conduct experiments. The video stresses that these skills are not used in isolation but are often combined in scientific investigations and everyday problem-solving.

💡Background Knowledge

Background knowledge refers to the information or experiences a person already has, which helps in making inferences or predictions. In the video, it’s noted that when making predictions or inferences, one often relies on prior knowledge, such as understanding that a low-pressure area may lead to a typhoon based on past experiences with weather patterns.

Highlights

Introduction to the difference between inference and prediction in science literacy and teaching.

Explanation of basic science process skills, focusing on inference and prediction.

Inference is the process of using observation and background knowledge to determine a conclusion.

Prediction is defined as an educated guess based on prior knowledge or observation about a future event.

Both inference and prediction are important in everyday life and scientific experiments.

Steps for making an inference include observing, applying prior knowledge, and deriving a conclusion.

Examples of inference in daily life, such as interpreting a child’s disgusted reaction to food.

Explanation of the difference between observation and inference: observation is objective, while inference is subjective.

Observation involves collecting information, while inference involves making a conclusion based on that information.

Prediction involves guessing what might happen in the future based on good observation or prior knowledge.

Example of prediction: forecasting weather based on observed low pressure.

Prediction is not a certainty but a probability based on available data and past observations.

Similarity between inference and prediction: both rely on observation and background knowledge.

Prediction and inference are both used in scientific methods but are not guarantees of what will happen.

Closing note with a preview of the next lesson about classifying, another basic science process skill.