9.16.24 Retail Impact, $SPY, $AAPL

Summary

In this Insider Access briefing, the speaker discusses the S&P 500's alignment with market projections and the potential for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed, influenced by upcoming US retail sales data. They emphasize the importance of gauging market movements accurately, highlighting the mixed market sentiment and the anticipation of a 25 basis point cut unless retail data indicates otherwise. The speaker also touches on the neutral stance towards Apple, suggesting potential trading opportunities based on market fluctuations and the FOMC meeting's outcome.

Takeaways

• 📈 The S&P 500 is in line with market projections, indicating a period of consolidation.
• 📉 There's a potential for a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed, which could impact market sentiment.
• 💼 US retail sales data is crucial for informing the Fed's decision-making and could influence the economy's momentum.
• 📊 The market is currently mixed, with some sentiment lifting towards a possible 50 basis point cut.
• 🔄 The speaker advises to gauge the market accurately without bias, focusing on what the data indicates rather than personal expectations.
• 📅 The FOMC meeting is highlighted as a significant event that could determine the market's next move.
• 📱 The speaker remains neutral on Apple's stock, suggesting opportunities for both shorting and going long depending on market conditions.
• 💹 The speaker anticipates resistance in the S&P 500 around the 5651 to 5670 range, requiring a catalyst like a strong retail sales number to break through.
• 🚫 The speaker warns against deploying capital heavily during sideways market days, advocating for patience and strategic trading.
• 📊 The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding market consolidation zones and their implications for future trading opportunities.

Q & A

What is the main focus of the Insider Access briefing on September 16th?

The main focus is on the general markets, specifically the S&P 500, and the anticipation of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and its potential impact on the market.

What is the speaker's stance on the S&P 500's movement during the rally period?

The speaker emphasizes the importance of gauging the market accurately and not just looking for what one wants to see, but rather what the market is indicating, especially during a rally period.

Why is the speaker discussing the US retail sales data in the context of the FOMC meeting?

The speaker believes that the retail sales data could inform the Fed's decision-making process for the upcoming FOMC meeting, as it provides a high-frequency data point that may influence future GDP revisions and economic momentum.

What is the speaker's expectation regarding the FOMC's rate cut decision?

The speaker expects a 25 basis point rate cut, but notes that a more significant 50 basis point cut could be considered if the retail sales data comes in negative, indicating a potential slowdown in the economy.

How does the speaker view the potential market impact of a negative retail sales report?

The speaker suggests that a negative retail sales report could put pressure on the Fed to consider a 50 basis point rate cut, which could have a market impact due to the gap between the current and the next FOMC meeting.

What is the speaker's strategy for trading during periods of market consolidation?

The speaker advises against deploying capital heavily during consolidation periods, as these are often sideways days where the market doesn't provide clear directional signals.

What is the speaker's view on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) after the market's movement?

The speaker views the iShares Russell 2000 ETF as holding gains and remaining positive, with projections of 212 to 216, and potentially reaching the top end of 220 if the FOMC meeting is agreeable.

Why does the speaker think investors might be betting on a 50 basis point rate cut in the TLT?

The speaker suggests that investors might be betting on a 50 basis point rate cut in the TLT due to anticipation and the desire for a more aggressive move by the Fed, despite the speaker not seeing such an indication from the Fed.

What is the speaker's stance on Apple's stock during the period discussed?

The speaker maintains a hyper-neutral stance on Apple's stock, indicating that they will short when it's overextended and go long when it's oversold, without a strong bullish or bearish view for a sustained period.

How does the speaker plan to react to the retail sales data release in terms of trading strategy?

The speaker plans to use the retail sales data as a potential opportunity for trading, either by taking a short position if the data is negative or waiting for a bounce if the market reacts positively.