Why Yemen Could Split Into Two Countries

Summary

The video provides background on Yemen's history of division and conflict between North and South Yemen before unification in 1990. It explains how the Houthis emerged and gained control of much of the country, leading to civil war. Despite a fragile ceasefire in 2022, tensions remain between the Houthis, the Saudi-backed government, and southern separatists. The current crisis in the Red Sea risks restarting the civil war. The video also promotes the documentary series Modern Conflict on Nebula streaming service.

Takeaways

• 😀 Yemen has a long history of division and conflict between north and south Yemen before unification in 1990
• 🤔 The current crisis threatens to restart Yemen's civil war between the Iran-backed Houthis who control the north and the Saudi-backed government in the south
• 😮 The Houthis have been attacking shipping in the Red Sea, impacting global trade and worrying other countries in the region
• 😠 Yemen has been mired in conflict for decades between competing factions and external powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran
• 🤨 Despite a fragile ceasefire since 2022, Yemen remains in a dire humanitarian crisis with millions in need of aid
• 😟 South Yemen separatists want to split from the north again due to feelings of neglect, adding complexity
• 😣 Unifying Yemen under one faction seems unlikely given the deep divisions, but splitting again may not resolve tensions either
• 😬 The Red Sea crisis risks plunging Yemen back into full-scale civil war between the Houthis, southern separatists, Saudi-backed government forces
• 😐 External powers like Saudi Arabia, UAE and Iran further complicate the conflict by backing different sides
• 🤔 Broader geopolitics mean peace in Yemen not just up to Yemenis, international cooperation key to ending crisis

Q & A

What are the Houthis and what territory do they control?

The Houthis are a rebel group that originated from the Zaidi tribes in northern Yemen. As of 2022, they control most of Yemen's populated eastern territory.

What caused the current crisis in the Red Sea?

The current crisis began when the Houthis started attacking maritime traffic passing through the Red Sea. This threatens to restart the civil war which has been on hold since the April 2022 ceasefire.

How did North and South Yemen form originally?

North Yemen originated from the Yemen Arab Republic formed after a coup in the 1960s. South Yemen was the British colony of Aden which achieved independence in the 1960s.

Why did North and South Yemen unify in 1990?

They unified with the hope of jointly developing newly discovered oil fields and improving economic prospects. North Yemen effectively took over South Yemen which was weaker.

Who was Ali Abdullah Saleh and what was his role?

Saleh was president of North Yemen from 1978 and of unified Yemen from 1990-2011. He held power through patronage and alliances until forced out by protests in 2011.

How did the Houthis come to power?

The Houthis fought and defeated the government of President Hadi which was weakened by infighting and lack of Saudi/UAE support. They took control of most of Yemen's populated areas.

Who are the Southern Transitional Council separatists?

The STC are a separatist group backed by UAE that wants South Yemen to secede. They temporarily took Aden but joined a unity government in 2020.

What led to the 2022 ceasefire agreement?

The ceasefire was negotiated between the Houthis, Hadi's Saudi-backed government, and the STC separatists after years of stalemate.

Could South Yemen become independent again?

It's unlikely soon, since no side wants outright separation. But a unified Yemen under Houthi control could prompt eventual separation.

What's the current outlook for resolving the conflict?

A lasting unified Yemen seems unlikely given disagreements. But South Yemen independence remains distant given opposition.

Outlines

00:00

😞 History of Conflict in Yemen Before Unification in 1990

Paragraph 1 provides background on the history of conflict in Yemen before it was unified in 1990. It discusses the split between a Marxist-Leninist South Yemen that emerged from British rule and an Arab nationalist North Yemen, both of which experienced significant political instability and civil wars. It also covers the gradual unification process, driven largely by economic considerations around oil.

05:01

😥 Yemen's Struggles After Unification Leading to Current Civil War

Paragraph 2 discusses Yemen's struggles after unification in 1990, including economic stagnation, political corruption, and tensions with Saudi Arabia over policy disputes. This paved the way for the eventual Houthi takeover of much of the country and the ongoing multi-sided civil war between the Houthis, Saudi-backed government forces, southern separatists, and Al Qaeda.

10:03

😕 Possibility of Yemen Splitting Again in the Future

Paragraph 3 analyzes the possibility of Yemen splitting up again in the future along the pre-unification boundary. It discusses factors making this unlikely in the short term, like opposition from major parties and the weakness of southern separatists, but notes that if the prospect of Houthi control over a unified Yemen grows, separation may become more appealing.

Keywords

💡Yemen

Yemen is the main country discussed in the video. It is a Middle Eastern nation with a history of political instability that has been engaged in a civil war since 2014. The video focuses on Yemen's history, the various factions involved in its civil war, and how the current crisis in the Red Sea threatens to restart the conflict.

💡Houthis

The Houthis are a rebel group in Yemen from the Zaidi sect that controls most of northern Yemen. They have fought against the internationally recognized government and other factions in Yemen's civil war. The video discusses the Houthis' background, reasons for their strength, and their opposition to splitting Yemen.

💡Red Sea

The Red Sea borders western Yemen. The recent attacks on shipping traffic through the Red Sea by the Houthis sparked international concern. The video analyzes how this maritime crisis risks restarting Yemen's civil war.

💡South Yemen

South Yemen was an independent state until unifying with North Yemen in 1990. The video describes South Yemen's distinct history and the recurring southern separatist movements led by groups like the Southern Transitional Council who still want southern independence.

💡Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia borders northern Yemen and is heavily involved in the conflict. It supports the internationally recognized government against the Houthis. The video examines Saudi Arabia's role in the war and its opposition to Yemen splitting.

💡United Arab Emirates (UAE)

The UAE is part of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen's war but backs different factions, like the Southern Transitional Council separatists. The video contrasts Saudi and Emirati involvement in Yemen.

💡Arab Spring

The 2011 Arab Spring protests in Yemen eventually led to President Saleh stepping down after ruling for over 30 years. This political instability contributed to the outbreak of civil war.

💡al-Qaeda

Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups operate in Yemen's desert regions. The video notes they threaten South Yemen in the event of the country splitting.

💡ceasefire

A UN-brokered ceasefire in April 2022 paused hostilities between the major factions. However, recent Red Sea attacks risk collapsing this fragile truce and restarting civil war.

💡humanitarian crisis

After years of conflict, Yemen faces an immense humanitarian crisis with 70% of the population requiring aid. This context emphasizes the devastating impact if violence resumes.

Highlights

Yemen has been split into two separate states for most of its modern history

South Yemen was the only communist state in the Middle East during the Cold War

After unification in 1990, North Yemen politically and economically dominated South Yemen

Yemen's stance against the Gulf War isolated it economically in the early 1990s

The Houthis emerged from northern tribes that fought the government in the 2000s

The Houthis were able to defeat the internationally recognized Hadi government

The UAE has backed southern separatists that want to reverse Yemen's unification

A ceasefire was signed between the major factions in April 2022

The leader of the southern separatists has accused Saudi Arabia of sidelining them in recent negotiations

It's unlikely southern Yemen could function well again as an independent state

A unified Yemen would likely be Houthi-controlled, concerning southerners

If Saudis accept a Houthi-led Yemen, they may support southern secession

Saudi Arabia tries to prevent Yemeni unity by encouraging other southern tribes

A unified Yemen looks unlikely given disagreements between factions

Documentary on Israel-Gaza conflicts available exclusively on Nebula

Transcripts

this video is brought to you by nebula

Yemen has been in the news a lot

recently mainly because the houthis who

control most of the country's East have

been attacking Maritime traffic passing

through the Red Sea but while most of

the media's attention has been focused

on the impact it might have on global

Shipping the current crisis in the Red

Sea is also worrying because it risks

restarting Yemen Civil War which has

been on hold since the ceasefire was

negotiated between the houthis and the

Saudi backed and internationally recog

ized yemeni government in April 2022

despite subsequent Paws in high level

conflict Yemen is still considered one

of the world's worst humanitarian crisis

with over 20 million people or about 70%

of the population currently in need of

humanitarian assistance so in this video

we're going to take a look at Yemen

Civil War how the Red Sea crisis

jeopardizes its fragile peace and how it

could

[Music]

end before we start if you haven't

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be notified when we release new videos

now the first thing to understand about

Yemen is that it's basically been beset

by sectarian violence for most of modern

history before unification in 1990 Yemen

was split into two states South Yemen

and North Yemen South Yemen originated

with the British protectorate of Aiden

the British captured the port of Aiden

in the 19th century because they thought

the port was in a strategically

advantageous location while Britain's

other outposts in the Middle East such

as Egypt Palestine or the Gulf were

mandates or protectorates Aiden was its

only Arab Colony I.E directly ruled by

the British crown the surrounding area

which was mostly sparsely populated

desert was governed by local tribes but

overseen by the British as the Aiden

protectorate and the boundaries of the

Aden protectorate basically map on to

what would become South Yemen South

Yemen achieved independent from the

British in the 1960s and promptly turned

into a Marxist leninist onep party State

led by a group called the National

Liberation Front this made South Yemen

then known as people's Democratic

Republic of Yemen the only avowedly

communist nation in the Middle East and

it received significant foreign aid and

assistance from the Soviet Union North

Yemen also came into being as a state

during the 60s when local Arab

revolutionaries staged a coup against

King Muhammad Al bad whose family had

taken power after the collapse of the

Ottoman Empire and established the Yemen

Arab Republic with sonar as its capital

neither Yemen was able to achieve

political stability on top of the two

Wars between the two Yemen in 1972 and

1979 both countries were beset by Civil

War South Yemen remained appallingly

poor for decades after Independence and

in 1986 after a prolonged period of

political instability the ruling yemeni

Socialist Party collapsed into a Civil

War which ended up killing thousands of

yemenis in North Yemen zadii tribes in

the Northern areas were constantly

fighting against the Sunni populations

in the coastal and Southern regions

ironically these tribes who were

supported by Saudi Arabia would go on to

become the houthis successive presidents

were either ousted or assassinated until

the arrival of President Ali Abdullah

Salah in

1978 with the help of an extensive

patronage system Salah was able to hold

on to power until unification in 1990

when he became president of Yemen during

unification North Yemen essentially

subsumed South Yemen which was both

poorer less populated and politically

weakened by the 1986 crisis one of the

motivations for the merger was the

discovery of oil fields in the Marb in

North Yemen and shabua in South Yemen

and the hope that cooperation could help

both countries more effectively develop

their oil fields anyway for the first

decade or so after unification Yemen

remained very poor War this was in part

because corruption undermined the

budding oil industry but also because in

November 1990 just 6 months after

unification Yemen voted against UN

resolution 678 condemning Saddam Hussein

this didn't go down well with Yemen's

Arab neighbors including Saudi Arabia or

the West under the George HW Bush

Administration the us immediately cut

$70 million in Aid funding and pressured

other states to do the same which meant

that Yemen received very little human

Arian Aid relative to its poverty level

a few years later Yemen applied to the

gulf cooperation Council a political and

economic Union comprising Bahrain Kuwait

Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia and the UAE in

an attempt to improve its economic

prospects but was duly rejected by 2001

Yemen had learned from its mistakes

after 911 Yemen immediately offered its

full support to the US in fighting

terrorism Yemen leader Salah was one of

the first people to be invited to

Washington and Yemen received millions

of dollars in development Aid and

military aid for fighting al-Qaeda in

2002 Yemen was allowed to joined certain

GCC adjacent institutions and in 2007 it

began negotiations for full membership

GDP per capita which had flatlined about

$400 for the decade after unification

began to increase reaching a peak of

over

$1,500 in 2014 unfortunately things only

went downhill from there as part of the

Arab Spring in 2011 protests across

Yemen for Salah to finally stand down

and hand over power to his Deputy adraa

mansur hati while Haiti was originally

quite popular he was constantly

undermined by the Army and Security

Services who were still loyal to Sala

and was unable to stem the constant

factional infighting during the

transition in 2014 he proposed a new

federal Yemen divided into Six States

but this was soundly rejected by the

houthis because the region that incl

included the houthis Heartland had

access neither to the Red Sea nor any

oil fields as we mentioned earlier the

houthis emerged from the zi tribes and

named themselves after the aloui

brothers who led a zi Rebellion against

salah's government in the 2000s after

Salah signed a controversial border deal

with Saudi Arabia anyway this sparked a

full-blown war between the Haiti

government and the houthis we're not

going to go into too much detail here

but the tldr is that the houthis

basically won and today control most of

Yemen's populated areas this was for at

least three reasons first they were

supported by Iran in part because

zismo and third while both Saudi Arabia

and the UAE opposed the houthis they

supported different anti- houthi

factions Saudi Arabia supported hades's

government while the UAE backed the

southern transitional Council or STC

separatist group that wants the South to

secede basically reversing the

unification we saw in 1990 for context

there's always been a sense in much of

South Yemen that they've been neglected

by the more powerful North and there

were separatist movements in the mid90s

and late 2000s Haiti and the STC were

originally allies but in early 2018 the

STC split from Haiti and started

fighting against government forces after

taking control of Aiden and most of

southern Yemen's populated centers they

declared autonomous rule in the south in

2020 hostilities were put on pause in

April 2022 when they both joined the

saudy Le presidential Leadership Council

and signed a ceasefire with the houthis

but in the past few months the leader of

the stdc general idus Al zedi has

accused the Saudis of sidelining the STC

in negotiations with the houthis and has

restarted advocating for southern

Independence so could this happen could

Yemen split once again well it looks

unlikely at least in the immediate

future neither the houthis nor Haiti and

the Saudis want Yemen to split and all

hope to one day regain control over the

entire territory and even if the STC are

the major player in southern Yemen they

don't have a monopoly of control like

the houthis sort of do in North Yemen in

part because Saudi Arabia have tried to

undermine Zed's calls by encouraging

tribes in the South to push for their

own independence it's also worth saying

that South Yemen didn't really function

very well as an independent state before

unification and it would be constantly

threatened by the houthis and terrorist

groups like alqaeda operating in the

deserts nearby on the other hand though

the South has never really been happy in

its Union with the north as evidenced by

the recurring separatist violence we saw

in the '90s and 2000s also given the

trajectory of the war a single unified

Yemen would almost definitely be

controlled by the houthis which is

something the south is understandably

wary of if the Saudis eventually accept

that a unified state would be a houthi

state they might decide that Yemen's

disunion is the least bad option

especially if the Saudi Iran

relationship develops to the point that

they can convince tyan to reduce support

for the houthis all in all while South

Yemen still seems a distant Prospect a

unified Yemen also looks pretty unlikely

given the disagreements between the

houthis and the Saudis which means

there's always a chance you've no doubt

been following along with the news from

Israel and Gaza but if you want a better

understanding to dive deeper into the

history of the region then you should

check out real life laws hourong

documentary about the tensions and

fighting between Israel and Gaza going

back decades that video by the way is

part of real life laws modern conflict

Series where they regularly run through

major ongoing conflicts from Lebanon

Civil War to everything going on in

Myanmar and the Turkish Kurdish conflict

it's an incredible series and it's

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