7 BUSTS You’ll Regret Drafting Early in 2024 Fantasy Football
Summary
TLDRIn this video, the host discusses the strategy of avoiding potential busts in the early rounds of fantasy football drafts. He identifies seven players, including Saquon Barkley and Mike Evans, who he believes are overpriced and carry high bust potential. Using consensus rankings and data analysis, the host provides detailed reasoning for each player, suggesting alternatives who offer better value in the draft. The goal is to help viewers make informed decisions to build a competitive fantasy football team.
Takeaways
- 🏈 The early rounds of fantasy football drafts are compared to the game Battleship, where players aim to pick top performers while avoiding potential busts.
- 👟 Saquon Barkley is considered a risky first-round pick due to his injury history and the perception that he may not return to his rookie form.
- 📉 There's skepticism around drafting Mike Evans highly because of the potential decline in the Tampa Bay offense and his age.
- 🚫 The script advises against drafting certain players early, like Saquon Barkley and Michael Pittman Jr., due to their perceived lack of upside compared to other options.
- 🤔 The discussion highlights the importance of considering a player's situation, such as team, offensive line, and role within the offense, when drafting.
- 📊 Statistical analysis, including tackle avoidance percentage and correlation of performance year-over-year, is used to evaluate player potential.
- 🔝 The script suggests that some players are being overdrafted in home leagues, which could lead to regret if they don't meet expectations.
- 💰 There's an emphasis on value and the idea that certain players are being selected too early based on name recognition rather than current performance.
- 🏟️ The change in team or offensive scheme is a significant factor, with examples given of how it could affect a player's production, such as with Keenan Allen.
- ⚖️ The script uses consensus rankings from various sources to identify players who might be overvalued or undervalued in the fantasy football community.
Q & A
What is the main topic of the video script?
-The main topic of the video script is identifying players in fantasy football who have high bust potential and are overpriced, particularly those who should be avoided in the early rounds of fantasy drafts.
Who are the first two players mentioned as potential busts in the early rounds of fantasy football drafts?
-The first two players mentioned as potential busts are Saquon Barkley and Mike Evans.
Why does the speaker believe Saquon Barkley might be a bust in the first round of fantasy drafts?
-The speaker believes Saquon Barkley might be a bust because he hasn't performed at a high level since his rookie year, and he has been dealing with injuries and an aging factor typical for running backs. Additionally, his tackle avoidance percentage is low, and there are other running backs with higher upside available later in the draft.
What is the 'Running Back Upside Theory' mentioned in the script?
-The 'Running Back Upside Theory' refers to the idea that when drafting a running back early, they should have the potential to be an rb1 overall and provide a high point return on investment, considering the fragility and high bust rate of running backs.
What concerns does the speaker have about drafting Mike Evans in the second round?
-The speaker has concerns about drafting Mike Evans in the second round due to his age, the potential regression in his performance, the bottom 10 offense he plays in, and the uncertainty around the quarterback play with Baker Mayfield.
What is the significance of the 'year-over-year correlation of running backs changing teams' mentioned in the script?
-The 'year-over-year correlation of running backs changing teams' signifies that running backs' point production, rush attempts, routes, and targets can be less consistent when they move to a new team, which could affect their fantasy football value.
Why does the speaker prefer other tight ends over Sam Laporta in the early rounds?
-The speaker prefers other tight ends over Sam Laporta because they can be drafted later and offer similar value without the premium pick cost. The speaker also believes that touchdowns are less predictable and 'sticky' stats compared to receptions and yards, which Laporta's value seems to rely heavily on.
What are the concerns about drafting Brandon Aiyuk in the early rounds mentioned in the script?
-The concerns about drafting Brandon Aiyuk include his holdout situation, the potential for a slow start due to lack of practice, and the uncertainty of his role and efficiency in a new offensive system with the 49ers.
Why does the speaker consider Michael Pittman Jr. overvalued in fantasy drafts?
-The speaker considers Michael Pittman Jr. overvalued because his production heavily relied on plays with Anthony Richardson, and with a new quarterback and potential changes in the offensive scheme, his target volume and efficiency may decrease. Additionally, the speaker believes there are better values available later in the draft.
What are the reasons for the speaker's hesitance to draft Alvin Kamara in the early rounds?
-The speaker is hesitant to draft Alvin Kamara because of his declining tackle avoidance rate, which may indicate a decline in performance. Additionally, the team's projected scoring offense is not high, and there are other backs who may offer better value at a similar draft position.
What are the concerns about drafting Keenan Allen in the early rounds as outlined in the script?
-The concerns about drafting Keenan Allen include his age and potential decline in performance, his change in teams which could affect his chemistry with a new quarterback, and the possibility of him being utilized in a less productive role in the new offensive scheme.
Outlines
🏈 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Avoiding Early Round Busts
The speaker begins by likening the early rounds of fantasy football drafts to the game Battleship, emphasizing the importance of avoiding players who might not perform as expected. They introduce the concept of 'bust potential' and highlight seven players they believe could disappoint if drafted in the top six rounds. The speaker discusses their personal experience with drafting, noting they have not chosen these players in their high-stakes drafts. They also mention the creation of a consensus ranking tool combining ESPN, Sleeper, and Yahoo rankings to help in the draft process. The first player analyzed is Saquon Barkley, with the speaker questioning his value in the first round due to concerns over his performance post-injury, his age, and the general fragility of running backs.
📉 Saquon Barkley's Declining Performance and Offensive Line Impact
The paragraph delves deeper into the reasons why Saquon Barkley might not be a wise first-round pick. It discusses his tackle avoidance percentage, which has been low even when considering the poor performance of his offensive line. The speaker refutes the idea that a bad offensive line should excuse Barkley's poor performance by showing that his tackle avoidance rate is still low compared to other running backs. They also mention that despite moving to a team with a potentially better offensive line and scoring environment, Barkley's past performance and the general decline in running back careers post-injury make him a risky choice. The comparison with other running backs like Jonathan Taylor, who does not have the same injury history or is at a different stage in his career, further supports this view.
📊 Analyzing Mike Evans' Value and Team Offensive Projections
The focus shifts to wide receiver Mike Evans, questioning his worth as a late second-round pick. The speaker cites Vegas projections placing the Tampa Bay offense near the bottom and discusses the potential regression of Evans' performance based on his age and the team's offensive capabilities. They compare Evans to other receivers like Cooper Kupp, Malik Willis, and Jaylen Waddle, suggesting that Evans might not offer as much value as these players. The paragraph also touches on the importance of consistent offensive production and how changes in a player's situation, such as a new team or quarterback, can affect their fantasy football value.
🔍 Evaluating Brandon Aiyuk's Talent and Team's Passing Offense
The speaker expresses concerns about drafting Brandon Aiyuk early, despite acknowledging his talent. They discuss Aiyuk's efficiency numbers from the previous season and the challenges he might face due to the 49ers' low pass attempt rates and a potential holdout. The paragraph also considers the possibility of Aiyuk being traded, which could affect his quarterback situation and, by extension, his fantasy value. The speaker suggests that there are other receivers with more favorable situations and less uncertainty who could be better draft choices.
🚫 Michael Pittman's Overvalued ADP and Team's Red Zone Strategy
Michael Pittman is discussed as a player whose average draft position (ADP) does not match his projected performance. The speaker points out that Pittman's value is overestimated, especially considering the Colts' preference for running the ball in the red zone and the potential for lower passing targets due to the playing style of quarterback Anthony Richardson. They also mention that Pittman's average depth of target (aDOT) is lower than what Richardson prefers, suggesting a mismatch in play styles. The speaker recommends other receivers who might offer better value in the draft.
🏃 Alvin Kamara's Dead Zone Running Back Status and Workload Concerns
Alvin Kamara is identified as a 'dead zone' running back, meaning his draft position is too high for the value he's likely to provide. The speaker cites Kamara's declining tackle avoidance rate and the potential for a reduced workload due to the presence of other running backs on the team and the Saints' scoring offense projection. They argue that Kamara's draft position in the fourth round is too rich and that there are better options available, such as Kenneth Walker or James Conner, who might offer similar value at a lower draft cost.
📉 Keenan Allen's Changing Role and Potential Decline
The final player discussed is Keenan Allen, whose career-year performance is attributed to the offensive system rather than a significant improvement in his play. The speaker expresses concerns about Allen's ability to maintain his performance due to his age, injury history, and the potential for a reduced role in a new offensive system. They also mention the risk of Allen falling into a similar pattern seen with other veterans who change teams later in their careers and fail to meet expectations. The speaker suggests that there are other receivers, like Rome Odunze, who might offer better value and have a higher ceiling for the latter part of the season.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Fantasy Football Draft
💡Bust Potential
💡Running Back Upside Theory
💡Tackle Avoidance Percentage
💡Offensive Line
💡Wide Receiver
💡PPR Points
💡Consensus Rankings
💡Efficiency Metrics
💡Red Zone Targets
💡Dead Zone Running Back
Highlights
Early rounds of fantasy football drafts are compared to the game Battleship, emphasizing the importance of avoiding busts.
Seven players with high bust potential in the top six rounds of fantasy drafts are identified.
Saquon Barkley is considered overpriced and not justifiable in the first round of drafts.
Barkley's tackle avoidance percentage is among the lowest in the NFL, indicating a decline in talent.
Mike Evans is labeled a brutal pick, especially with better wide receiver options available later.
Evans' production is tied to the performance of the Tampa Bay offense, which is not highly projected.
Sam Lora is not worth the premium pick in the third round compared to other available tight ends.
Lora's touchdown production may not be repeatable, and other tight ends offer better value.
Brandon Aiyuk's talent is acknowledged, but concerns over his holdout and efficiency make him a risky pick.
Aiyuk's efficiency was exceptional in the previous season, but sustaining it is uncertain due to his holdout.
Michael Pittman Jr. is overvalued in home league drafts, with a preference for other wide receivers at his ADP.
Pittman's role in the Colts' offense may not align with his skill set, leading to a potential decline in production.
Alvin Kamara's declining tackle avoidance rate and his team's low projected scoring make him a risky fourth-round pick.
Keenan Allen's career year is attributed to scheme fit rather than a resurgence in skill, signaling potential regression.
Allen's role in the Rams' offense is uncertain, and there are concerns about his age and potential decline.
Transcripts
what's going on man welcome back to the
basement rron and the more I think about
it the more the early rounds of your
fantasy football drafts are like a game
of Battleship of course you're trying to
draft next year's CD lamb Christian
mcaffrey and get the studs up top but
you're also trying to avoid those
landmines and huge bust that can just
completely derail your fantasy football
team so today we're going to try our
best to look into a crystal ball and
identify the seven players you'll regret
drafting inside of the top six rounds of
your fantasy draft these are guys that I
think have huge bust potential are over
priced and I have not drafted them so
far through the 10 or so high stakes
teams that we've drafted on stream as
always if you enjoy this video we're
almost at 50,000 subscribers which feels
crazy to say so make sure you subscribe
leave a like if you enjoy let's
[Music]
goze
my now first up we have saquin Barkley
now for honestly because we have like a
week left of draft prep everybody has
their home leagues either today tomorrow
this week next weekend whatever we're
going to start using this for the
players I am working behind the scenes
with a guy who knows how to do API and
we'll eventually maybe have like a a a a
small web page you guys can use to kind
of see the consensus rankings but this
is just ESPN default rankings sleeper
default rankings Yahoo default rankings
which is their xrank all put together
for consensus into a consensus pick so
our first player here is saquin Barkley
he is the consensus 112 he's going as
the rb5 by consensus and then you can
see individually ESPN he's going 11th
sleeper 11th Yahoo 14th
so the deal was saquin I can't justify
taking him anywhere in the first round
even the early second feels Rich I'm
taking AJ Brown over him I'm taking
Garrett Wilson I'm taking pukaa and on
the running back side of things as well
I'm taking Jonathan Taylor I'm taking
jir Gibbs Ken Williams and Devon Anan
all over saquin Barkley when we take
these running backs early we talk about
it all the time with the legendary
running back upside Theory as laid out
by Pat carine a few years ago if we're
taking a running back early they are
very fragile they bust at a high rate
last year we had mcaffry up top but then
you also had Austin Eckler beison
Robinson Tony Pard uh Nick chub a lot of
guys drafted highly didn't pan out so if
I take one of these guys early and we
know how fragile they are and how much
these running backs bust I need the
upside case scenario of hitting like 20
plus points for or being the rb1 overall
and I just don't see how sequin gets
there he hasn't hit 20 plus points per
game since he was a rookie and this
isn't the same sequin that was the
prince who was promised best running
back Prospect I've ever seen I sometimes
even go back and watch Pence state
saquon Barkley highlights he was a
monster then rookie year was a monster
ever since he tore his ACL he's getting
older as as a running back as well we
just don't see very long careers at the
running back position right you can
think back to Todd Gurley and Levan Bell
and all the Running Backs from my
childhood outside of of like the true
Hall of Fame Blue Chip you know Adrien
Peterson types and I guess sort of
leanian Tomlinson these guys fall off a
cliff and for seon I'm not saying that
he's falling off a cliff just yet but
he's not that same guy like I know he
holds a lot of name value as saquin but
this is a good string of tweets here
from Jacob Gibbs we use his stuff all
the time make sure you follow him on
Twitter atj
gibbs2 and here from 2021 to 2023 the
last three years of data saquin is sixth
worst in his tackle avoidance percentage
and it's a bad list to be a part of man
we're talking Zeke Elliott forette
latavius Murray Joe Mixon Jamal Williams
Rashad white AJ Dylan Antonio Gibson
some of the least efficient runners in
the NFL now everybody was in his
comments saying what you guys are about
to say as well well the offensive line
sucks he was probably getting hit before
or at the line of scrimmage he then
dispelled that myth where uh initial
contact met at or behind the line of
scrimmage on average was 20% and then
average avoided tackle rate beyond the
line of scrimmage 17.5% so you actually
by having a bad offensive line the
running back of course has to now evade
that tackler more often which actually
leads to higher avoided tackle rates
saquon's bad offensive line should have
helped him it did not his avoided tackle
rate has actually still been super super
low and then if we look at as well well
maybe he was going up against heavy
boxes on a bad Giants team we look here
he dispelled this myth as well when you
look at runs against light boxes over
the last three years I believe he's 39th
in avoided tackle rate 41st in rushing
EPA per snap 45th in rushing success
rate among 46 qualifiers so all I'm
saying is that I don't think that he's
the talent that He once was and taking
him in the first round at the 112 or 111
like he is on ESPN is a really thin bet
and then you add on top of that I I know
that it seen as a positive that he's not
on the Giants anymore but D McFarland
laid it out here you look at the
year-over-year correlation of running
backs changing teams we usually want
them to stay on the same team their PPR
points their Rush attempts routes
targets are all much less sticky when
they move to new situation and we also
have a scenario here on the Eagles where
yes the offense will be better it'll be
the best offensive line he's had it'll
be the best scoring environment he's had
in his career but this is also a team
that doesn't really feature a running
back Jaylen Herz has never had a running
back finish inside of the top 15 in
points per game now of course we're
talking my sanders we're talking DeAndre
Swift but I just showed you saquin the
name value is there I 100% get it but he
is not by and large a massive upgrade
over those players and we're going to
have Jaylen Herz squeezing for
receptions he's not going to check it
down as often as a guy like Eli Manning
when seol was a rookie and had that
massive year and then the goal line
rushers are going to be split so he's
definitely going to have more touchdown
upside than he had in New
York but it's still going to be capped
at a ceiling now I get all the time
wasn't Jonathan Taylor dealing with the
same stuff with uh Richardson yes but I
would rather bet on the talent of
Jonathan Taylor Who's 25 years old no
torn ACL history is still on the same
team has juice it's just not the same
bet to me because he's not on the the
set the you know the back nine of his
career yet JT is still firmly in his
prime where that's not really the case
with saquin so again I would prefer a
bunch of other running backs in the
early second I'd prefer a bunch of
receivers at that one-w turn and I think
saquin is going to be a pick that people
end up regretting especially you know in
these home leagues where he's going 111
110 I've seen him go as high as 1 n 109
in some places uh and I just can't get
there now I do get a lot of comments on
these do not draft videos of it's a lot
of running backs you guys know I do
enjoy my wide receivers I take wide
receivers early and often but I wanted
to shine some light on some receivers
here because honestly the way that I
started this outline for this video
was not even early round busts but
really more so players I haven't drafted
yet in my high stakes draft that we
actually stream all the time we I think
we've streamed la like four of the last
four nights High Stak straps we stream
every night until kickoff make sure you
check those out but I was looking
through it like guys I haven't drafted
yet and then I also don't think I'll
probably end up with any of them and
Mike Evans fits that build now
Mike Evans isn't necessarily like an
awful pick but I think that he is a
pretty brutal pick especially at that
Yahoo rank of pick 20 and he's also in
your home League he's just a a bigname
player so he's going to go inherently
earlier and I think at the the back half
of the second round like 212 211 210 and
even in the early third when in these
consensus rankings you have to take him
over Cooper cup over Malik neighbors
over Jaylen wadle I just can't do it
even guys like DJ Moore and DK meaf I
would take over Mike Evans and here's
why when we look at Mike Evans he's
on I I'm hesitant to call it a bad
offense but it's a bottom 10 or so
offense in terms of Vegas projections as
highlighted by Connor Allen here he
looked through all the Vegas lines
before the season and found which teams
are projected to score the most points
Tampa Bay is 22nd on top of that you
have Dave Canalis leaving with this
tweet from Ryan Heath every single spot
that Canalis has come to the quarterback
play has improved if Baker Mayfield goes
back in terms of adjusted net yard yards
per attempt with just passing efficiency
if he goes back to that 483 2022 number
this whole offense is going to really
struggle and Mike Evans isn't going to
be as good as he was last year where he
was a wide receiver 10 finisher in terms
of points per game and you drafted him
in the sixth round which was massive
right that was a huge win and somebody
we were drafting as well on this channel
but
now we're drafting that in the late
second and last year was actually kind
of an outlier for Mike Evans over his
last five seasons he had a really really
strong year but I would bet against him
beating it we can see Over The Last 5
Years 13 touchdowns was up to par with
2021 and 2020 what happens if that goes
back down to 6 to8 touchdowns his
targets per around 23.5% was a 5year
high what if that comes down now with
the addition of Jaylen McMillan a new
offenseive coordinator Chris God now
going back full-time into the slot yards
PR run 2.32 again a five-year High
coming off of a baker Mayfield career
year if Baker Mayfield's efficiency dips
so does Mike Evans and then PFF grade
83.2 His Highest since
2019 we're talking about a 31-year-old
wide receiver you can kind of expect a
lot of these to regress back to the mean
and if we're talking like under two
yards per out run under 20% targets per
out running like six to eight touchdowns
he can still get I'm not saying that
he's not going to get his 10,00 yard
season he will I mean that's just what
Mike Evans does and I'm not going to bet
against that but he can hit a thousand
receiving yards and be like a backend
wide receiver to instead of that wide
receiver 10 and points per game he was
last year and what you're drafting him
at at the late second so I would just
rather pass you know you can take other
good receivers later you're going to get
you know Malik Neighbors in the fourth
you're going to get Stefan Diggs in the
fourth in these home leagues you're
going to get Wadd cup in the third
you're going to get even in the fifth
tank Del T Higgins R Rashi rice so I
would just rather shy away from Mike
Evans if there's a guy like Devon Anan
on the board or nicoo Collins that's the
direction I'm going and just to put a
cherry on top again I'm not calling for
the fall off here but he can absolutely
get like if he ends up with like a th000
yards and seven touchdowns that's a loss
in the second rounder at the two3 turn
this is where he's at in terms of Ryan
Heath's wide receiver performance by
career year year 11 at this point this
when we start to see a little bit more
of a dip again I think that he can be
okay but wide receiver 13 uh I think
he's more likely to end up as like wide
receiver 23 than he is wide receiver 13
now moving on from that you know we're
putting we're putting our neck on the
line here right these are early picks
for a reason but we're going to again
try and look into a crystal ball and
talk to the players that might Bust or
underperform in their ADP and Sam
leaport is one of them now I have no
issue with Sam L pora the player I think
he's a good player it's really for me
more that you can get Trey McBride in
the fifth round and you can get D con
Kade in the fifth
round and it feels Rich to have to take
leaport at 302 with those guys available
later when we look at Underdog's
projections they their pick them lines
where they have higher or lowers you can
see here with Sam loraa he's projected
for 12.6 PPR points per game right 81.5
receptions 875 and a half receiving
yards 7 and a half receiving touchdowns
and that's you know a sizable advantage
over McBride Andrews cancade uh Pitts KD
right I I included like the top seven or
so tight ends here and you can see their
consensus rank on the end here's the
thing when we talk about just receptions
and yards though and we take out the
touchdowns right points per game with no
touchdowns samor at 9.9 Trey McBride at
9.4 dong kid at 9.3 so you're paying two
rounds extra really just for touchdowns
and when we look at correlation this is
a really cool stickiness chart from Ryan
Heath yards have a 71 correlation
year-over-year targets 73 whereas
touchdowns are just. 52 they're all over
the place right we just saw that Mike
Evans chart where sometimes he'll score
13 sometimes he'll score six sometimes
he'll score eight and you're really just
paying a premium on the Porta for those
7.5 receiving touchdowns and who's to
say even though canate is a 5.5
projection McBride is a 4.5 projection
who's to say that they can't outscore
leaport in terms of touchdowns it
wouldn't be all that crazy for that to
happen right especially being concade in
a really good offense that's going to
score touchdowns it just feels like
you're paying a premium I think you know
if you could get aort in the fourth
versus McBride In The Fifth and Canad in
the fifth and find one round differences
in anything but 302 is a premium pick
we're talking 254th ranked on sleeper I
haven't drafted Lea yet and it's just
because I see those top five tight ends
Kelsey leapa McBride Andrews and Cade
almost all in the same tier to the point
where I don't really want to pay extra
for lorta and pay that premium and
you're kind of looking at a 2v2 here
of you take leor in the third and then
you come back around later and you
probably take like you know Z flowers in
the fifth so you can either have leapor
and Z flowers or you can take like
Cooper cup or niik Collins in the third
and then come back around in the fifth
and take Trey McBride or King Kade I
like the trade-off of the the TR McBride
concade and just get cup or niik Collins
to me it's just a bigger tier gap
between the receivers there in terms of
round three versus round five so again
it's not even necessarily like Sam laor
the player I think is bad but we could
see some regression where last year a
lot of his production came off of like
10 plus touchdowns he didn't even hit
10,00 receiving yards which is something
that Kyle pittz has done in the past as
a rookie we'll see he could definitely
make take a step forward here Alan R st
Brown is still in this offense as well
uh I just don't think that he's he's
worth taking two rounds ahead of the
other tight ends we have a a big crop of
good tight end Targets this season so
I'm a little bit less likely to take Sam
lorta at the two3 turn then we have
Brandon auk man Brandon iuk and I think
it's because these home League sites
right he's at the consensus 303 as the
wide receiver 14 these consensus play uh
places right ESPN actually has him
ranked just fine at 36 but sleeper has
him 26 and Yahoo has him
24th that feels like a lot right that
feels like a lot we're talking about on
sleeper I would have him you know he's
ranked 26th I would have him behind
Devonte Smith at this point in time and
here's
why he is somebody who is of course Uber
Uber talented right we have this tweet
from Jacob Gibbs in terms of players
with over 300 routes and over three
yards per rout run he is one of the
youngest players to ever do it second
youngest after Nico Collins in a list
with just Julio Jones Cooper cup Tyreek
Hill that is rare air that means he's a
very very talented receiver and last
year we saw as well his efficiency
numbers were crazy expected points for
game at 10.5 he ended up being the wide
receiver 41 in expected points per game
this is just based off your targets your
Red Zone targets your ad do and he
outproduced that by 5.2 so he was the
wide receiver 41 in usage the wide
receiver 15 in points per game and I say
this to say he's a very talented
receiver but you're threading such a
such a fine needle he hit one of the
best efficiency seasons of all time
right three plus yards per out run five
plus F per game and even still he was
just the wide receiv receiver 15 in
points per game that was maxed out
efficiency wide receiver 15 in points
per game consentes wide receiver 14 and
the biggest concern I have is that
before the hold out stuff I was open to
making that bet and saying you know what
he's just that good he'll have that
efficiency again he'll be a top 15 wide
receiver again I have a hard time you
know again three plus yards per out run
just a list of niik Collins Julio Jones
Cooper cup Tyreek Hill you have to be on
your game to hit a three plus yards per
out run season and that's why he needs
to hit wide receiver 15 numbers in this
offense and if you're holding out and
you're taking time away from football I
just don't expect him to just get right
back on the field and carry that same
efficiency it might start slow you know
you have sort of established connections
with Debo and KD and some of you might
say well what about the volume just
going up well you still have Debo there
you still have KD there you still have
mcaffrey there and this is a team over
the last three seasons that has been
32nd 26th and 29th in pass attempts this
is not a team that's going to pass the
ball they're a low volume passing
offense they still have a ton of weapons
you would need an injury for his volume
to go up and then we also have these
reports now apparently the 49ers are
still working on a deal with auk Niners
Insider says that the team has had talks
with the commanders and Steelers and
don't expect him in the team huddle in
week one now our week one status is up
in the air he's taking time off from
football to the point where I don't know
that he's going to be able to sustain
the efficiency he had last year and then
we also have the idea that he could go
to the commanders and have a worse
quarterback or he go to the Steelers and
have a worse quarterback so I've moved
him down to the bottom of that tier
where you have you know Devonte Smith DK
meaf DJ Moore uh all of those guys I've
just moved him to the back I'm not
taking him until like the very very late
third or early fourth it's just too much
is up in the air and it's too thin of
like again you need 99.9 percentile
efficiency from a player that could
potentially start slow and hasn't been
in practice or you know getting game
reps in so I just think it's a tough bet
to make even though I do like the talent
and before this hold out stuff was very
much fine drafting in the third round
then we have Michael Pitman and we we
honestly shout out Michael Pitman in
like every single one of these do not
draft videos but
his price is just ridiculous man 306 by
consensus he's going as the 20th ranked
player on ESPN as the wide receiver 10
on ESPN uh pick 40 on sleeper pick 35 on
Yahoo and this is how you know that his
price is out of whack is on Underdog
where it's wide receiver heavy he's
going in the fourth round on Underdog
he's going at the 306 by consensus he's
going in the second round of ESPN he's
going in the third round of Yahoo again
fourth round on Underdog which is best
ball three wide receivers One Flex
usually is pretty wide receiver heavy
now I will say shout out to Underdog
fantasy make sure you check them out use
promo code Ron when you sign up and
they'll match your first deposit up to
$1,000 we now have like a cool look at
this thing go we have a cool animated uh
promo code thing here but you can find
the link in the description the comment
section down below and you can hop into
these lobbies and kind of just get a
feel for what these drafts look like uh
and you can kind of see even if it's a
wide receiver heavy format the players
are ranked as efficiently as possible
where these rankings here are from Real
Money real money is on the line the
sharpest drafters in the world are
drafting here and that's why Michael
Pitman at wide receiver 25 on Underdog
but he's wide receiver 17 by consensus
that is just awful value any way you cut
it now when we talk about why he's
ranked this way on Underdog and why
people who are putting money down don't
really like Michael Pitman it's for this
reason he last year was very good and he
was actually somebody we were drafting a
ton of he was wide receiver 14 in points
per game he had 109 receptions but just
15 of them came from came from Anthony
Richardson and we look here he had 12
games without Richardson 16 points seven
points per game that's amazing four
without him just or four with Anthony
Richardson but without Gardner mchu he
had 13 points per game not so great and
to me he's just a bad fit for Richardson
who is going to scramble a ton there's
not going to be a lot of Pat stems in
this offense then you
also have Richardson who likes to push
the ball downfield he had the highest
Ada among the first round quarterbacks
in 2023 right that's Bryce young that is
CJ strad and pitman's average up the
target over his entire career is 8.6 J L
his career a do 8.1 so we're talking
about like a really low a do player the
same reception upside of 109 still isn't
there you have ad Mitchell running out
of the slot instead of Michael pman now
you have a guy who's like operating on
the outside but his ad dot super low and
then you also have the idea that Shane
styken likes to run the ball in close
this is a good tweet from Jacob Gibbs
here the past three Shane styken seasons
have all resulted in more rushing
touchdowns than passing touchdowns even
including the Herbert rookie season Sten
has a 41% Red Zone pass rate only four
teams post at a lower rate than that in
2023 41% Red Zone pass rate that is
going to be a lot of Anthony Richardson
Zone Reed a lot of Jonathan Taylor up
the gut four touchdowns in this offense
most of these touchdowns will be to
Anthony Richardson or Jonathan Taylor
leaving Michael Pitman as the odd man
out so now we have lower PPR upside in
terms of receptions just based on
Richardson scrambling instead of
checking it down or looking to throw the
ball deep and then less touchdowns
because it'll just be Richardson and
it'll be Jonathan Taylor pounding it
into the end zone so I have a very tough
time taking Pitman anywhere near where
he goes in these home League drafts I
personally have him right now as a fifth
rounder in my rankings now our sixth
player is going to be Alvin kamaro he's
going at the
410 by consensus pick 33 on ESPN um he
when we talk about dead zone running
backs of guys that are just simply
projections for workloads and nothing
else Kamar fits the bill I just simply
can't take him when we look at it
year-over-year from jaob gibes here his
avoided tackle rate by season has just
gone down every single year since
2019 last year he was sixth worst in
tackle avoidance rate and when we see
that this is where we can kind of see
running backs start to decline and yes I
understand okay well he just has kendre
Miller and Jamal Williams behind him but
that's the Trap he's on the 25th
projected scoring offense it's going to
just be a PPR scam but not as good as it
was last year uh and in the fourth round
you're passing on Malik neighbors you're
passing on
um K meaf Devonte Smith here in these
consensus rankings in terms of Home
leagues I just can't get there I'd
rather take Kenneth Walker who goes in
this range I'd rather take James koku
goes in this range if you really want a
running back here this is where I'm also
taking like tight ends and Elite
quarterbacks to me Alvin Kamara is just
a pretty brutal bet uh you can also get
you know right at this four five turn as
well tank Dell Rashi rice T Higgins so
to me Kamar in the fourth round just
very clear Dead Zone running back uh
that I want nothing to do with and our
last player our seventh player that I am
not drafting inside of the top six
rounds of fantasy drafts is Keenan Allen
he's going at the 607 as the wide receiv
receiver 31 as high has picked 64 over
on sleeper and people don't understand
like yes he had the best year of his
career last year but it
wasn't it wasn't because he played his
best football if that makes sense he was
a big beneficiary from Kell Moore uh
here you can see when Allen was used in
pre- snap motion Kell Mo usually uses
this guy out of the slot with pre- SNAP
motion it's why people are very high on
either AJ brown or Devonte Smith based
on who they think is going to have this
role in Kell Moore's offense in Philly
uh he had a 35% Target Prout run as a
pre- snap motion guy 13.2% first downs
per route run without motion 26% targets
per route run 99.9% first downs per
route run which is just fine but it's
not like Keenan Allen was a monster and
had his best career ever this is like a
pretty standard Keenan Allen year and I
think that we're going to have a bit of
a come down here he's changing teams new
quarterback new system and and he has
looked pretty brutal in the preseason so
far now I will say it is just preseason
but so far he has ranked 250th of 285
qualifying receivers you have guys like
Hayden Wings looking at his film and
saying he doesn't move the same way that
he's moved in the past and then you also
have the downside that Shane Waldren
puts him in the jsn role that we all
hated from last year people keep saying
oh it's going to be Roman dun I don't
think so Roman dun's final year in
college he had a 15.5 yard ADOT
downfield only played 17.4% of his snaps
from the slot on the the other side
Keenan Allen has much similar numbers to
jsn where he's at 9.9 yard adott 59%
slot rate to jsn 6.4 yard ad Dot and 69%
Slot rate now I might say well 9.9 yard
ad out is much further downfield than
jsn 6.4 well jsn ad out in college was n
yards plus and Shane Waldron then took
that down and forced him to pee in this
role we could 100% see this happened to
Keenan Allen so the downside of age
falling off due to you know age and
injury he's missed a ton of games over
the last two years we've seen these wide
receivers change teams then completely
fall off right in the past where we've
seen Julio Jones go to Tennessee you've
of course you know seen a lot of other
ones that I don't really I don't want to
mention it in a bad way but of course
you've seen like Andre Johnson go to the
Colts you've seen uh a lot of things not
work out Brandon Marshall to the Giants
I'm trying to think there's a lot of
these guys that later in their careers
they change teams and it just doesn't
work out as planned here so I just can't
do it there's almost never a time where
I'm on the clock and Keenan Allen is
available but romad dun isn't either I
just prefer romad dun straight up I know
that that's aot a hot take but if I'm on
the clock and they're both there I'm
taking Rome uh it would have to be a
scenario for me where Roman dun is not
on the clock but Keenan Allen is for me
to ever end up with him on my roster and
that just hasn't happened and we do
structure our teams for the back half of
the season and usually these veterans
sort of tail off as a season goes on
whereas the rookies end up being the
league winners down the stretch like
Rashi rice Jaden Reed Z flowers and puka
AA all were last year and I think romad
dun has a much better chance of being
that than of course a guy like Keenan Al
now that is going to do it for us today
if you want to make sure you're avoiding
sinking your team with busts in these
early rounds make sure you check out the
the rankings over on patreon.com Ron
Stewart you can find them in the
description and the comment section down
below I have my top 200 cheat sheet with
tiers and my target rounds for each
player and they are based completely off
of all the research we do from all these
videos where I have all of these guys
pushed down so you won't be drafting
them you'll be drafting the guys with
rb1 upside early and filtering your
teams down the strategies that we
outline on this channel but if you can
support there just leave a like again
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you're new and I will see yall in the
next
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